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Juan C. García

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4000 on: March 11, 2017, 03:58:06 PM »
IJIS SIE is now down for the month of March to-date...

Great summary Jim (as always)!
Thanks for moderating this Forum!
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Meirion

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4001 on: March 12, 2017, 10:09:53 AM »
Starting to feel that 13,878,287 is the maximum (portions of crow & humble pie at the ready)

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4002 on: March 12, 2017, 10:18:25 AM »
IJIS:

13,781,624 km2(March 11, 2017)up 39,504 km2 and 2nd lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Unmex Chingon

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4003 on: March 12, 2017, 03:33:20 PM »
Starting to feel that 13,878,287 is the maximum (portions of crow & humble pie at the ready)

http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wxmaps/#ARC-LEA.T2

You are probably right...  It is going to be super hot over the next days  - no way there are increases.

anthropocene

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4004 on: March 12, 2017, 08:32:44 PM »
Starting to feel that 13,878,287 is the maximum (portions of crow & humble pie at the ready)

http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wxmaps/#ARC-LEA.T2

You are probably right...  It is going to be super hot over the next days  - no way there are increases.

From the climate reanalyzer you are showing most of the arctic basin is -10degC to -40degC. What  are you on about? (Although it may be that climate reanalyzer has changed. When referencing dynamic pages take a copy and post that direct rather than posting a link)

DrTskoul

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4005 on: March 12, 2017, 08:59:54 PM »
His attempt with sarcasm was lost....

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4006 on: March 13, 2017, 05:15:16 AM »
IJIS:

13,847,241 km2(March 12, 2017)up 65,617  km2 and 2nd lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

pauldry600

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4007 on: March 13, 2017, 11:12:25 AM »
This thing is still going up!

Theres cold in the next few days too so the ice may spread out further still with export and cold.

Is 14m attainable?

Darvince

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4008 on: March 13, 2017, 11:33:17 AM »
This time of year, for extent, the temperature of the Arctic basin itself does not matter.

DoomInTheUK

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4009 on: March 13, 2017, 01:25:46 PM »
This thing is still going up!

Theres cold in the next few days too so the ice may spread out further still with export and cold.

Is 14m attainable?

14m might well be obtainable, but I wouldn't want to walk across it.  :o

Unmex Chingon

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4010 on: March 13, 2017, 02:33:10 PM »
His attempt with sarcasm was lost....

Maybe.....

But the image was there as a screen shot.



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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4011 on: March 14, 2017, 05:15:40 AM »
IJIS:

13,815,668 km2(March 13, 2017)down 31,573 km2 and 2nd lowest measured for the date.
« Last Edit: March 14, 2017, 06:55:06 PM by Espen »
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DavidR

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4012 on: March 14, 2017, 07:57:32 AM »
This thing is still going up!

Theres cold in the next few days too so the ice may spread out further still with export and cold.

Is 14m attainable?

14m might well be obtainable, but I wouldn't want to walk across it.  :o

The Bering and Okhotz will both be significantly warmer than average over the next week or so according to Climate Reanalyzer. If we don't see an increase there,  we are unlikely to see a significant increase in extent over the next week. 
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4013 on: March 15, 2017, 05:28:17 AM »
IJIS:

13,835,579 km2(March 14, 2017)up 19,911 km2 and 2nd lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4014 on: March 16, 2017, 05:04:16 AM »
IJIS:

13,818,067 km2(March 15, 2017)down 17,512 km2 and 2nd lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4015 on: March 17, 2017, 05:53:19 AM »
IJIS:

13,705,959 km2(March 16, 2017) down 112,108 km2 and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

oren

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4016 on: March 17, 2017, 06:31:20 AM »
This is probably a result of the retreat in the Kara and Svalbard/FJL due to the storm.
In any case, I doubt mother nature can recover from this back to the max, as the date is getting rather late.

Pmt111500

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4017 on: March 17, 2017, 07:02:40 AM »
The 14-day average change finally went negative so by my own criteria I have to say the maximum has been passed on the extent measure. 13,878,287 km2(March 6, 2017). Of course there's a possibility that export starts so intensively that this "true maximum" will be surpassed yet, but I'll take that as a measurement error.  ;) ;D :P. But that is still a low extent. And the rotation of Beaufort gyre seems to be (at least temporarily) reversed so it might be this maximum still is not the high value for IJIS.
« Last Edit: March 17, 2017, 07:25:33 AM by Pmt111500 »
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

Neven

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4018 on: March 17, 2017, 10:12:52 AM »
Yes, this was it. I'm pretty sure of it.
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DrTskoul

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4019 on: March 17, 2017, 10:18:26 AM »
As long as we don't cross 13.5 too soon.

Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4020 on: March 17, 2017, 12:00:36 PM »
That *was* almost certainly it. No year on the IJIS record has gained enough extent on or after this date to surpass the maximum to date of 13.88M, much less the previous record low maximum of 13.94M. Only three years in the past 14 had a maximum on or after today's date, but even were 2017 to follow their behavior, we still wouldn't see a higher maximum than we already have.

(FWIW, that's the largest single-day IJIS extent decrease since 03 August.)


Buddy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4021 on: March 17, 2017, 12:18:58 PM »
We continue to head into "uncharted waters"....literally.  Will be interesting to see if the "first move down" is like that of the Antarctic in late August:  EMPHATIC to the downside.  The rest of March will be fascinating to watch....as will the totality of ice melt season as we likely head to new low levels in September.

Going to be enlightening......

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Bill Fothergill

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4022 on: March 17, 2017, 02:05:32 PM »
IJIS:  13,705,959 km2(March 16, 2017) down 112,108 km2 and lowest measured for the date.

Since IJIS/JAXA/ADS publishes a two-day averaged figure, that equates to a 224,216 sq km reduction between the unpublished single-day values for the 14th and 16th of March.

The published number given by Espen is the lowest in the .csv since the 16th Feb.

The NSIDC has just given their one-day figure for the 16th as showing a 134k sq km drop since yesterday, and is the lowest in that .csv since the 15th February.

Each of the above lends further weight to the suggestion (proposal? fact?) that the annual retreat is once more upon us.


But just to be different, the DMI chart went upwards.  :P
« Last Edit: March 17, 2017, 03:16:14 PM by Bill Fothergill »

Tor Bejnar

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4023 on: March 17, 2017, 03:27:27 PM »
...

I wonder when (if?) Jim's chart will show years other than 2012 (heavy yellow) with melt/freeze histories taking the Arctic to a new record low extent.  The pessimist in me guesses the 2007 line (lowest green) will project a new record low during the first half of April and the 2007-16 average (dotted red) will do so in May.
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rboyd

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4024 on: March 17, 2017, 06:40:32 PM »
With the sustained heat anomalies predicted by climate reanalyzer, plus the returning sun to the southerly stretches of the Arctic, would have to agree with you. Quite possibly an "emphatic" drop, bad news for later on given the albedo effect of the extra open water.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4025 on: March 17, 2017, 07:06:20 PM »
The optimist in me reminds us that the sun always starts shining in the Arctic at this time of year.  Also, that peak ice is not statistically predictive of September minimums.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

magnamentis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4026 on: March 18, 2017, 12:11:38 AM »
The optimist in me reminds us that the sun always starts shining in the Arctic at this time of year.  Also, that peak ice is not statistically predictive of September minimums.

you're totally right of course while i think that those who expect a low minimum have the bad state of the ice, including the lack of very thick ice. converting ice volume into energy needed to melt it we are more sooner than later reaching a state where ANY weather and ANY summer condition will do the job, simply because the energy needed is so low due to the small amount of ice (volume) to melt.

gregcharles

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4027 on: March 18, 2017, 01:27:02 AM »
With the sustained heat anomalies predicted by climate reanalyzer, plus the returning sun to the southerly stretches of the Arctic, would have to agree with you. Quite possibly an "emphatic" drop, bad news for later on given the albedo effect of the extra open water.

It's more than just the southernly stretches getting sun. According to http://www.athropolis.com/sun-fr.htm, 24 hour per day sunlight hits the North Pole starting tomorrow.

jdallen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4028 on: March 18, 2017, 01:36:42 AM »
With the sustained heat anomalies predicted by climate reanalyzer, plus the returning sun to the southerly stretches of the Arctic, would have to agree with you. Quite possibly an "emphatic" drop, bad news for later on given the albedo effect of the extra open water.

It's more than just the southernly stretches getting sun. According to http://www.athropolis.com/sun-fr.htm, 24 hour per day sunlight hits the North Pole starting tomorrow.
Indeed, but the incident angle will render it mostly meaningless until we get at least 10 degrees of elevation above the horizon.  Even then, it won't do a lot until/unless we get melt ponds, which above 80 probably won't happen until June.  I hope. :o
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Jim Williams

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4029 on: March 18, 2017, 02:04:11 AM »
The optimist in me reminds us that the sun always starts shining in the Arctic at this time of year.  Also, that peak ice is not statistically predictive of September minimums.

you're totally right of course while i think that those who expect a low minimum have the bad state of the ice, including the lack of very thick ice. converting ice volume into energy needed to melt it we are more sooner than later reaching a state where ANY weather and ANY summer condition will do the job, simply because the energy needed is so low due to the small amount of ice (volume) to melt.

Actually, I think it is the poor state of the cold since December 2015.  Which of the hot southern oceans and the open northern waters is more to blame I will leave to others.

pileus

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4030 on: March 18, 2017, 04:31:29 AM »
Is there precedent for the 210k 2 day drop for this time of year?  Looks like 05 has the closest slope, but hose are more like 60-80k per day.

Lord M Vader

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4031 on: March 18, 2017, 09:25:39 AM »
Almost another century break today. We are back to lowest on record!

jdallen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4032 on: March 18, 2017, 10:21:46 AM »
Almost another century break today. We are back to lowest on record!
I think we'll see a few days of this; most of the extent around FJL and Svalbard is little better than slush and the western Kara not much better.  When that clears out the decline may slow... unless heat starts slamming the Bering and Okhotsk, which is similarly fragile.  *Then* (I hope) it will slow down.  Maybe.

D*mn this is bad.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4033 on: March 18, 2017, 10:59:55 AM »
IJIS:

13,607,502 km2(March 17, 2017)down 98,457 km2 and lowest measured for the date.
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DrTskoul

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4034 on: March 18, 2017, 11:32:56 AM »
IJIS:

13,607,502 km2(March 17, 2017)down 98,457 km2 and lowest measured for the date.

Hey... who pulled the drain plug?

Meirion

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4035 on: March 18, 2017, 11:43:14 AM »
We can now definitely call 13,878,287 km2 on 06 March as the Max (no crow or humble pie for me) - lowest on record - and even though Max does not predict the Min this looks like an interesting melt season. It's the volume we should really be worried about.

Buddy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4036 on: March 18, 2017, 12:45:16 PM »
Need to watch volume and see if it also peaks a little earlier than normal.  Next 7 days much warmer than normal....especially along Russian coast.  Could be a nasty start to melt season...
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Deeenngee

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4037 on: March 18, 2017, 01:30:10 PM »
Weekly update of my 2017 vs 1990-2016 maxima chart.
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oren

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4038 on: March 18, 2017, 01:59:17 PM »
Thank you Deeenngee.
Interestingly, the two biggest drops in the past two days happened in St. Lawrence and Okhotsk, unrelated to the Atlantic-originated storms, although Barents and Kara contributed their share too.

Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4039 on: March 18, 2017, 02:06:16 PM »
Is there precedent for the 210k 2 day drop for this time of year?  Looks like 05 has the closest slope, but hose are more like 60-80k per day.

2004 IJIS SIE fell by 220k in a two-day span (and 303k over three days) about the same time of year, and 2009 dropped 205k  in a two-day period about a week earlier than this. 2012 lost 192k over two days, while 2014 lost 188k. IOW, what has happened the past two days is certainly not unprecedented, but it's far from common...

At any rate, the YTD maximum looks pretty safe now:


bosbas

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4040 on: March 18, 2017, 02:46:51 PM »
Jim, I see in your chart 2011 in 3rd place. Where ended 2016?

Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4041 on: March 18, 2017, 03:21:48 PM »
Jim, I see in your chart 2011 in 3rd place. Where ended 2016?

For IJIS SIE, 2012 was 1st, followed by 2016, then 2007.

(I was inadvertently pulling from an earlier version of that particular chart that showed 2011; it's now fixed. Thanks)

Juan C. García

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4042 on: March 18, 2017, 08:31:59 PM »
Great graphs, Deeenngee and Jim!!
Interesting end of the freezing season!
New lowest max and very concerned of what these graphs and Piomas volume could mean on the 2017 melting season!

Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4043 on: March 19, 2017, 08:01:55 AM »
IJIS:

13,556,324 km2(March 18, 2017)down 51,178 km2 and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

gerontocrat

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4044 on: March 19, 2017, 09:59:05 AM »
One could say melting is 12 days ahead of 2016. Which also means a little bit of the Arctic is getting a little bit more insolation this year. As Tesco says "every little helps" ?
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4045 on: March 19, 2017, 11:36:36 AM »
IJIS:

...and lowest measured for the date.

It looks like the lowest recorded for any day between 18 Feb and 31 March.  That's just from looking at the graph, not the data.

DavidR

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4046 on: March 19, 2017, 12:31:11 PM »
IJIS:

...and lowest measured for the date.

It looks like the lowest recorded for any day between 18 Feb and 31 March.  That's just from looking at the graph, not the data.
The data agrees with you! 18 Feb and 31 Mar 2016 were just below that figure. 2016 bumped along near that  figure from 5 Feb being above it most of the time until the18th Feb
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4047 on: March 20, 2017, 08:26:55 AM »
D*mn this is bad.

That just about sums it up  -

Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4048 on: March 20, 2017, 03:48:04 PM »
For anyone interested:


Bill Fothergill

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4049 on: March 20, 2017, 06:08:50 PM »
For anyone interested:

At the time of writing, this thread has had 1,096,023 views.

What makes you think anyone is remotely interested Jim?   ;)


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