Can I have public confirmation on the 100 pound bet offered? to be frank 100lb of smoked NZ oysters is worth a hell of a lot more than 100lb of pommie pub pork pies, So i is being very generous with the odds proffered.
I don't bet commodities.
On reflection - a single double century is not completely impossible given day-to-day noise and satellite glitches. I'd still bet against it, but not as much as a hundred pounds. If you want to formally take me up on my bet, I'd suggest the following:
I bet the sum of 100 UK pounds that during this year's melt season, the daily loss figures as calculated by NIPR will show:
* No triple century losses
* No more than one double century loss
Small print:
* 1:1 odds, can't be bothered with anything else.
* £100 UK currency, or equivalent in any other currency at the exchange rates on the day the bet is concluded.
* Loser donates the requested sum to a charity of the winner's choice.
* Happy to use any sensible definition of "this year's melt season" - say between now and the end of October?
* NIPR data is as per the CSV file downloadable from this page:
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent* No fannying about trying to reverse-engineer single day figures from the two day average. We use the published numbers as they stand, barring obvious glitches and data drop-outs.