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Wipneus

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #400 on: September 04, 2013, 11:36:03 AM »
Wow, what's going on there!?

13 (out of 15 IIRC) swaths missing?

Lennart van der Linde

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #401 on: September 04, 2013, 01:21:35 PM »
But then how do they come up with a total number? So this will probably be revised tomorrow?

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #402 on: September 04, 2013, 01:44:57 PM »
But then how do they come up with a total number?

Fill in the missing values with data from previous days. I don't actually know this, but it is soo obvious.

Quote
So this will probably be revised tomorrow?

You never know. Perhaps they were lucky and the dip is real. After all the AMSR2 went down today a good bit as well with a much smaller hiatus in the data.

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #403 on: September 05, 2013, 10:58:20 AM »
IJIS:

No regular update today ???
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #404 on: September 06, 2013, 01:22:13 AM »
2013244, 5217289.33, 
2013245, 5133141.57,
2013246, 5186565.14,   
2013247, 5086981.29, 

Masie three day loss -131k.

Vergent

Frivolousz21

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #405 on: September 06, 2013, 03:14:56 AM »
Jaxa/Windsat has full data for the 3rd and 4th, partial for the 5th.

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #406 on: September 06, 2013, 10:41:32 AM »
IJIS:

4,942,239 km2 (September 5, 2013).

Please read following link(major change):

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/revision_v2.html
« Last Edit: September 06, 2013, 11:05:12 AM by Espen »
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #407 on: September 06, 2013, 11:02:46 AM »
IJIS:

Still trailing behind 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011 and 2012.

But only 36,666 km2 above 2010. And 1,576,246 km2 above 2012.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #408 on: September 06, 2013, 11:26:46 AM »
Fascinating, for the first time a decent description of "land expanded mask". It is now discontinued :(

Attached my amsr2 3.125 extent graph, collecting more and more spaghetti: now includes Jaxa/IJIS V2.

As can be seen my own Jaxa amsr2 calculation matches that of Jaxa/IJIS very well since the middle of June or so. In winter I calculate less ice, indicating that Jaxa/IJIS includes ice outside the 14 well known regions. For instance the Baltic area and perhaps the Great Lakes.


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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #409 on: September 06, 2013, 11:48:25 AM »
So in the new version we lost almost 506k over the past two weeks.

This 506k broken down per day:

Aug 23: -15k reaching 5.448.094 km2
Aug 24: -28k
Aug 25: -37k
Aug 26: -43k
Aug 27: -64k
Aug 28: -67k
Aug 29: -81k
Aug 30: -32k
Aug 31: -31k
Sep 1: -15k
Sep 2: -20k
Sep 3: -27k
Sep 4: -32k
Sep 5: -15k reaching 4.942.239 km2

Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #410 on: September 06, 2013, 11:58:19 AM »
IJIS:

And note last years low on September 16 2012 is revised to 3,177,455km2.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #411 on: September 06, 2013, 12:16:04 PM »
Good morning,

I'm not sure how the refined calculation method by Jaxa affects things re: the data - the same trends are there and we knew it was bad. We're never going to get zero ice cover in the Arctic - that isn't finely the point - but the fact that the figures are revised downard by some 10% on the former calculated minimum for 2012 might jolt some deniers into a greater level of concern as they see the inevitable consequences grow that much closer.

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #412 on: September 06, 2013, 01:09:43 PM »
Average 1980’s one-day minimum: 7.286.634 km2 (Sep 11)
Average 1990’s one-day minimum: 6.592.674 (Sep 8th)
Average 2000’s one-day minimum: 5.481.450 (Sep 15)

2002: 5.229.571 km2 (Sep 8th)
2003: 5.933.760 (Sep 18)
2004: 5.683.663 (Sep 11)
2005: 5.179.300 (Sep 21)
2006: 5.625.046 (Sep 14)
2007: 4.067.486 (Sep 24)
2008: 4.500.623 (Sep 9)
2009: 5.054.055 (Sep 12)
2010: 4.622.092 (Sep 17)
2011: 4.269.199 (Sep 10)
2012: 3.177.455 (Sep 16)

2013: ? (current extent: 4.942.239 on Sep 5)

So we have 320k to go to beat 2010 (with its minimum on Sep 17).

We had 36k/day average loss over the past two weeks.

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #413 on: September 06, 2013, 05:45:45 PM »
Good morning,

I'm not sure how the refined calculation method by Jaxa affects things re: the data - the same trends are there and we knew it was bad. We're never going to get zero ice cover in the Arctic - that isn't finely the point - but the fact that the figures are revised downard by some 10% on the former calculated minimum for 2012 might jolt some deniers into a greater level of concern as they see the inevitable consequences grow that much closer.

The most vocal of the deniers will not react this way. They will view the downward revision as further evidence that the scientific community is gaming the numbers in order to frighten the public.

Frivolousz21

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #414 on: September 07, 2013, 07:28:30 AM »
Does anyone know if the phantom ice South of Alaska is counted?


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Wipneus

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #415 on: September 07, 2013, 08:30:09 AM »
Does anyone know if the phantom ice South of Alaska is counted?


I don't know! In my calculation from L3 concentration data I don't include it (restricting to the 14 rregions) and get a good match in summer. In winter even if I include all the ice, I don't exactly get all the ice that Jaxa counted (are they still on 15% cutoff I wonder?)
Another matter is the averaging, I suspect the L3 data is averaged and so will the Jaxa/IJIS extent. The image you show is probably not averaged (as its updated live). Such phantom ice is often very variable, and maybe below the 15% in the average process.

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #416 on: September 07, 2013, 10:27:51 AM »
IJIS:

4,923,972 km2 (September 6, 2013) down 18,267 km2 from previous.

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Lennart van der Linde

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #417 on: September 08, 2013, 01:24:13 PM »
4,893,380 km2 (sep 7) -31k

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #418 on: September 09, 2013, 08:45:29 AM »
IJIS:

4,861,800 km2 (September 8, 2013) down 31,580 km2 from previous.

1,561,005 km2 above 2012.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #419 on: September 09, 2013, 09:57:07 AM »
...  the fact that the figures are revised downard by some 10% on the former calculated minimum for 2012 might jolt some deniers into a greater level of concern as they see the inevitable consequences grow that much closer.

The most vocal of the deniers will not react this way. They will view the downward revision as further evidence that the scientific community is gaming the numbers in order to frighten the public.

Undoubtedly. There's a fire in the building and some are comparing the heat from the flames with a high-summer's day.

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #420 on: September 10, 2013, 10:03:57 AM »
IJIS:

4,831,603 km2 (September 9, 2013) down 30,197 km2 from previous.

1,549,521 km2 above 2012.
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Lennart van der Linde

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #421 on: September 10, 2013, 11:20:33 AM »
Only 210k to go to beat 2010: seems hardly possible anymore, but who knows?

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #422 on: September 11, 2013, 08:14:36 AM »
IJIS:

4,833,597 km2 (September 10, 2013) up 1,994 km2 from previous.

1,568,932 km2 above 2012.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #423 on: September 11, 2013, 08:15:29 AM »
Do we have a refreeze?
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #424 on: September 11, 2013, 09:37:41 AM »
Do we have a refreeze?

Maybe? kinda? Temps over most of the basin look too high.  They are low single digits over the main pack, but I suspect there is still too much energy that needs spilling for a durable freeze.
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Lennart van der Linde

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #425 on: September 11, 2013, 12:45:07 PM »
NSIDC and AMSR-II/Wipneus had small upticks two days ago, but further declines yesterday and today (so far).

So probably no real/lasting refreeze yet. But in the Arctic you never know :)

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #426 on: September 11, 2013, 04:04:57 PM »
I just posted a blog post on the ASIB: Pinpointing the minimum

Quote
There's a high over the Beaufort Sea alright, but perhaps it is too big, reaching all the way to the Siberian coast. High-pressure systems make for clear skies, and with temperatures dropping, this causes sea water to release its heat so that it can freeze up. If sea water in the Siberian seas freezes up, sea ice extent won't be going any lower. The pressure gradient over the ice pack is also lower, which means less wind to compact the ice pack.

This makes me tend to say that the minimum could be reached by Saturday, September 14th, with the caveat that a big low coming in from the Atlantic might invigorate the pressure gradient, causing more compaction where the weakest part of the ice pack is situated.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #427 on: September 11, 2013, 08:20:15 PM »
Thanks, Neven, for this clear explanation of the most important processes determining arrival of the minimum.

NSiDC has another uptick today, so we may indeed be at or really close to this year's minimum.

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #428 on: September 11, 2013, 08:56:27 PM »
Yes, the minimum could've been reached today (on IJIS). It all depends on how the ice reacts to that big high.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #429 on: September 12, 2013, 08:33:20 AM »
IJIS:

4,825,097 km2 (September 11, 2013)  down 8,500 km2 from previous.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #430 on: September 12, 2013, 08:49:26 AM »
That's an early update!? Is this the new normal?

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #431 on: September 12, 2013, 09:12:39 AM »
That's an early update!? Is this the new normal?

V2 updates almost 6 hours earlier than v1, 3:12 UTC vs 8:55 UTC.

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #432 on: September 13, 2013, 07:43:55 AM »
IJIS:

4,809,288 km2 (September 12, 2013) down 15,809 km2 from previous.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #433 on: September 13, 2013, 04:42:59 PM »
9/12 extent is now lower than the average minimum extent of the previous decade (2003-12), which was 4.812 MM km2.

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #434 on: September 14, 2013, 10:12:13 AM »
IJIS:

4,820,839 km2 (September 13, 2013)  up 11,551 km2 from previous.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #435 on: September 15, 2013, 10:04:32 AM »
IJIS:

4,826,157 km2 (September 14, 2013)  up 5,318 km2 from previous.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #436 on: September 15, 2013, 10:09:17 AM »
It looks like a refreeze now.

And September 12 2013 will be the low at 4,809,288 km2.

But it can easily change with these small changes and numbers.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #437 on: September 16, 2013, 08:53:55 AM »
IJIS:

4,834,931 km2 (September 15, 2013) up 8,774 km2 from previous.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #438 on: September 16, 2013, 03:31:32 PM »
I am seeing the opposition is waking up, at least in my backyard, so be prepared! ;)
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #439 on: September 16, 2013, 07:24:14 PM »
I am seeing the opposition is waking up, at least in my backyard, so be prepared! ;)
Sorry Espen. That went over my head.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #440 on: September 16, 2013, 08:59:02 PM »
I am seeing the opposition is waking up, at least in my backyard, so be prepared! ;)
Sorry Espen. That went over my head.

Now I hear people talking about recovery and +60% sea ice "growth", that is what I meant.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #441 on: September 16, 2013, 09:22:06 PM »
They've gone nuts to make up for having to keep their stupid heads down in 2011 and 2012.

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #442 on: September 16, 2013, 09:38:47 PM »
Now I hear people talking about recovery and +60% sea ice "growth", that is what I meant.

I've gone nuts too:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/blog/
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #443 on: September 17, 2013, 09:32:03 AM »
IJIS:

4,824,927 km2 (September 16, 2013) down 10,004 km2 from previous.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #444 on: September 18, 2013, 08:47:23 AM »
IJIS

4,832,002 km2(September 17, 2013) up 7,075 km2   from previous.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #445 on: September 19, 2013, 08:04:11 AM »
IJIS:

4,838,927 km2(September 18, 2013)  up 6,925 km2 from previous.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #446 on: September 19, 2013, 08:21:30 AM »
Last year:

3319816 km2 (September 18, 2012), up 105k9  the first century of the 2012/2103 winter.

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #447 on: September 19, 2013, 06:08:53 PM »
Last year:

3319816 km2 (September 18, 2012), up 105k9  the first century of the 2012/2103 winter.

That looks interesting. Would there be some value in running this daily comparison for the remainder of 2013? Might it provide some insight into whether the fractured slushy CAB and overall cloudy arctic will slow the freeze? This kind of comparison might be even more valuable when comparing volume.

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #448 on: September 20, 2013, 09:10:18 AM »
IJIS:

4,861,396 km2(September 19, 2013) up 22,469 km2 from previous. 
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #449 on: September 20, 2013, 01:19:11 PM »
SHARED HUMANITY
It would be more useful to compare 2013 refreeze with 2009 since you would be starting from roughly the same base. At the moment you would be comparing 2013 slush with 2012 open water and I suspect the slush will freeze faster.