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Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #550 on: January 11, 2014, 11:16:39 PM »
Hi Neven,

I understand your question, but as long the different measurements behave so much different I vote for separate threads? :-\

But when we become sea ice free, it is a different matter? ;) 
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crandles

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #551 on: January 12, 2014, 04:59:47 PM »
I would suggest that easier to compare and contrast makes for more interesting posts.

With separate threads you get posts like

CT area is now down to second lowest.

With one thread you are more likely to get

Area has been in 5th to 9th lowest position for the last couple of months while extent measure have been around 2nd or 3rd lowest. But now area has come down to second lowest for the date. Extent on both NSIDC and Jaxa are 3rd lowest.

OK perhaps I exaggerate the difference a little but it seems like a good idea to try it. We can always revert to 3 threads if it isn't working out.

Whether the differences and changes are significant and whether likely to continue or revert might be difficult to debate until some time later.

Extent has moved up to 3rd Lowest

ChrisReynolds

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #552 on: January 12, 2014, 05:59:53 PM »
Neven,

Yes it's part of the PDO pattern, negative PDO gives a warm north Pacific. It also gives a cool Atlantic Arctic (reverse of this pattern), NCEP/NCAR, give that link a while to work.

Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #553 on: January 15, 2014, 01:23:34 PM »
IJIS (still filling in from time to time for Espen, who's busy):

12,939.224 km2(January 14, 2014)  up 12,221 km2 from previous.

126,439 km2 below 2010s average for this date.

316,074 km2 below 2012 value for this date.
« Last Edit: January 21, 2014, 09:06:50 PM by Jim Pettit »

Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #554 on: January 20, 2014, 01:55:16 PM »
IJIS:

13,218,0102 (January 19, 2014)  up 58,129 km2 from previous.

21,613 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

93,011 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
« Last Edit: January 21, 2014, 09:07:24 PM by Jim Pettit »

Steven

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #555 on: January 20, 2014, 07:11:52 PM »
21,613 km2 above 2000s average for this date.

I'm not sure how you obtained the 2000s average?  According to this data file, IJIS is now

993,370 km2 below the 1990s average
444,800 km2 below the 2000s average
  27,016 km2 above the 2010-2013 average

Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #556 on: January 21, 2014, 09:06:01 PM »
21,613 km2 above 2000s average for this date.

I'm not sure how you obtained the 2000s average?  According to this data file, IJIS is now

993,370 km2 below the 1990s average
444,800 km2 below the 2000s average
  27,016 km2 above the 2010-2013 average

My bad; I have written 2000s average where I meant 2010s average, and so on. I'll go back and change the last few updates. Sorry, Espen.  ;)

Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #557 on: January 21, 2014, 09:08:23 PM »
IJIS:

13,262,1672 (January 20, 2014)  up 44,157 km2 from previous.

35,615 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

84,882 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #558 on: January 21, 2014, 10:14:51 PM »
It is OK Jim,

We are only in the pre-season, thanks by the way. Just came back from some interesting travel.
« Last Edit: January 21, 2014, 10:49:37 PM by Espen »
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Steven

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #559 on: January 21, 2014, 10:44:29 PM »
My bad; I have written 2000s average where I meant 2010s average, and so on. I'll go back and change the last few updates. Sorry, Espen.  ;)

OK, I used the 2010-2013 average rather than the 2010-2014 average, which is why it didn't match exactly.  Yesterday I thought that perhaps the typo had something to do with the recent IJIS revision...

Anyway, thanks for the updates.  I try not to read too much into it (looking more closely at PIOMAS than at extent or area) but it's interesting nevertheless.
« Last Edit: January 21, 2014, 11:14:49 PM by Steven »

Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #560 on: January 23, 2014, 01:34:32 PM »
Just came back from some interesting travel.

Interesting travel, huh? Care to share?

Anway:

IJIS:

13,360,7902 (January 22, 2014)  up 72,281 km2 from previous.

410,907 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

57,174 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

546 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #561 on: January 23, 2014, 11:13:41 PM »
JIM,

It is a bit premature, but very interesting.
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Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #562 on: January 27, 2014, 01:09:57 PM »
IJIS:

13,557,7352 (January 26, 2014)  up 23,972 km2 from previous.

346,687 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

75,676 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

121,805 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #563 on: January 30, 2014, 12:51:35 PM »
IJIS:

13,527,2142 (January 29, 2014)  up 15,732 km2 from previous day.

494,065 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

9,225 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

80,855 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
« Last Edit: January 31, 2014, 04:44:13 PM by Jim Pettit »

domen_

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #564 on: January 30, 2014, 03:14:16 PM »
Why is this up? January 26th had higher extent than January 29th?

jdallen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #565 on: January 30, 2014, 10:04:18 PM »
Why is this up? January 26th had higher extent than January 29th?

Not sure its that the extent was higher on the 26th; could be the increase between the 26th and 29th this year is just less than it was previously.

It it is not this, the decrease is almost absolutely driven by compaction caused by wind and drift, and has nothing to do with melting.  Even with 20C+ anomalies, it is still far too cold for that.
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Wipneus

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #566 on: January 31, 2014, 08:36:13 AM »
Apart from the winds, the Jaxa maps show considerable false ice, see attached map.
South tip of Greenland and the North Sea are caused by strong winds. I could be wrong, but the ice near New York is suspect as well.

Sea Ice concentration calculated by Uni Hamburgs amsr2 and from NSIDC don't show this false ice in this period but also show a decrease in extent. So the wind factor looks dominant.


Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #567 on: January 31, 2014, 04:53:56 PM »
Why is this up? January 26th had higher extent than January 29th?

Apologies; I haven't been updating the IJIS/JAXA numbers every day, but rather when I've been able to get around to it. When I write "up from previous" or "down from previous", I'm referring to the previous calendar day, not the previous update. FWIW, however, SIE did fall on two consecutive days this week. In fact, because of that double dip, extent has grown by just 9,094 km2 in the past four days, and 147k km2 in the past week. (The month-to-date gain has been 1.147 million km2.)

Neven

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #568 on: February 01, 2014, 11:24:38 PM »
Okay, I've opened that central sea ice extent and area data thread. I'd appreciate if if all the IJIS data stuff gets posted there. I expect it will  become a very interesting and busy thread.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #569 on: February 02, 2014, 12:47:04 PM »
Neven,

I think it is not such a good decision, since it will be like discussing oranges and apples?
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Neven

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #570 on: February 02, 2014, 08:20:37 PM »
Espen, I don't see a problem with discussing apples and oranges in a central fruit thread. Comparing them is another matter.  ;) :)

I just want to try it out. You can continue posting here if you like.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #571 on: February 08, 2014, 11:06:09 AM »
IJIS:

13,666,843 km2 (February 7, 2014)

2014 is following a very similar pattern to 2011, very interesting! 
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jdallen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #572 on: February 08, 2014, 11:24:53 AM »
IJIS:

13,666,843 km2 (February 7, 2014)

2014 is following a very similar pattern to 2011, very interesting!

Interesting indeed, as some folks once were debating that 2011 was actually had lower numbers than 2007...

Spring conditions, I think, will be extraordinarily crucial for the coming melt season.
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Buddy

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #573 on: February 08, 2014, 03:40:46 PM »
I was searching the internet for the "earliest start to melt season" in the Arctic.  Does anyone know the answer to that?  I thought I saw it somewhere on this site at one time.

I assume it was sometime in early to mid March.....but I was curious to know the actual answer.

Thanks...

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OldLeatherneck

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #574 on: February 08, 2014, 03:53:20 PM »
Below are the dates at which the extent reached the maximum value for the past 10 years.  That does not necessarily equate to the beginning of the melt season.


March 10, 2004            14701388
   
March 7, 2005           14396094
   
March 10, 2006           14132380
   
February 24, 2007   14209677
   
March 9, 2008           14774776
   
March 2, 2009           14657047
   
March 31, 2010           14688540
   
March 16, 2011           14127729
   
March 7, 2012           14709086
   
March 14, 2013           14523635
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TerryM

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #575 on: February 08, 2014, 05:16:48 PM »
Amazing how far 2007 strays from the pack.
Terry

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #576 on: February 08, 2014, 05:58:29 PM »
Amazing how far 2007 strays from the pack.
Terry

Although, 2007 stayed on an undulating plateau until about March 11th, after which steady, but slow, declines began.
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crandles

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #577 on: February 08, 2014, 06:31:32 PM »
Amazing how far 2007 strays from the pack.
Terry


The peak of a 30 day PIOMAS volume average runs to day 118 in 2007, 121 in 2008, 123 in 2009, 117 in 2010, 121 in 2011, 123 in 2012 and 119 in 2013. 7 days covers the peak in those 7 years.

The middle of that range runs to day 120 which is 30 April, so the average of April works quite well for the peak. Similarly Average of Sept works pretty well for minimum.

While it may not work as well for other data as for PIOMAS, If you use a 30 day average, that will reduce the range by quite a lot but not eliminate the variation.


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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #578 on: February 09, 2014, 04:59:16 AM »
On Feb 8th the 2014 extent (13,669,885 km2) is now second lowest, just above 2011 (13,636,918 km2)

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #579 on: February 09, 2014, 05:18:07 AM »
Interesting indeed, as some folks once were debating that 2011 was actually had lower numbers than 2007...

2007 has the lowest extent for 9 of the days of the year (by date)
2011 has the lowest extent for 59 of the days of the year (by date)
2012 has the lowest extent for 129 of the days of the year (by date)

Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #580 on: February 09, 2014, 10:03:55 AM »
IJIS:

13,669,885 km2(February 8, 2014) 

2014 continues a low flight only 2011 was slightly lower on this date ( -32,967 km2).
« Last Edit: February 09, 2014, 11:10:25 AM by Espen »
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jdallen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #581 on: February 09, 2014, 01:11:09 PM »
IJIS:

13,669,885 km2(February 8, 2014) 

2014 continues a low flight only 2011 was slightly lower on this date ( -32,967 km2).

... which considering, implies a significantly disconcerting melt season, *IFF* we don't get a cool spring like 2013.  If we get something resembling a "normal" melt season (rather than cool like 2013), We may at the least see a return to 2012 values for volume, area & extent, and potentially may see a serious crash past the 2012 number.  Strong melt forces (clear sky, warm inflowes) may presage a very unpleasant summer.
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Buddy

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #582 on: February 09, 2014, 01:33:01 PM »
If you look at the temperature anomaly map for the Northern Hemisphere for the next 7 days...it still shows a very warm Arctic.  Not AS warm as the last 10 days or so....but STILL very warm.

http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Forecasts/index_gfcst.php

Things are NOT setting up well for the coming year in the Arctic AND on Greenland as well.

Alaska has been VERY WARM (including Barrow on the northernmost coast), Greenland air temps have been very warm (and look to continue so for the next week), and the odds of an El Nino is becoming more likely.

NOT....a good mix.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #583 on: February 09, 2014, 05:09:40 PM »
Very little solid sea ice is seen in the Bering Sea and Strait.
« Last Edit: February 09, 2014, 05:26:11 PM by Espen »
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Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #584 on: February 12, 2014, 06:27:21 AM »
IJIS:

13,633,069 km2 (February 11, 2014) 

2014 continues its low altitude flight, the lowest recorded for this date.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #585 on: February 13, 2014, 05:52:16 AM »
IJIS:

13,606,990 km2 (February 12, 2014)

The 2014 IJIS flight is now stalling and is really showing up with a very different track than previous years already -109,445 km2 below the previous (2011) record for this date. 
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Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #586 on: February 13, 2014, 01:18:06 PM »
IJIS:

13,606,990 km2 (February 12, 2014)

The 2014 IJIS flight is now stalling and is really showing up with a very different track than previous years already -109,445 km2 below the previous (2011) record for this date.

Not to mention 307,000 km2 below the 2012 value for this date...

silkman

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #587 on: February 13, 2014, 03:26:01 PM »
It would seem to be safe to assume that the observed IJIS/JAXA stall has more than a little to do with this:

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

Toggle between 2013 and 2014 and you get a clear view of a very different temperature trend.
« Last Edit: February 13, 2014, 03:31:49 PM by Silkman »

jdallen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #588 on: February 13, 2014, 08:05:32 PM »
It would seem to be safe to assume that the observed IJIS/JAXA stall has more than a little to do with this:

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

Toggle between 2013 and 2014 and you get a clear view of a very different temperature trend.

Sort of, maybe.  I haven't felt that to be proven *yet*...

I'd actually blame what is happening now more on heat added to the system during the melt seasons in 2012 & 2013.  That, and, if you look regionally where the drop in extent is focused, it is mostly peripheral - in the Bering, Okotsch and Greenland seas - well below 80N.  Add to that, that while high, temperatures at 80N are still well below freezing, the problems created are less likely to be tied to extent, and more to volume and pack strength.  They won't really show up until the melt season.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #589 on: February 13, 2014, 08:41:13 PM »
And the open area north of Svalbard and around Franz Josef Land is impressive:

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #590 on: February 13, 2014, 08:55:19 PM »
And the open area north of Svalbard and around Franz Josef Land is impressive:

It's like a pair of open wounds.  If they are still just as open come mid March, the consequences for the melt season actually could be serious.  Several hundred thousand KM2 of open water at high latitude, at the *start* of the melt season! merrily soaking up heat rather than bouncing it back out of the atmosphere, due to reduced albedo.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #591 on: February 13, 2014, 08:59:24 PM »
Warm air intrusions into the CAB will keep slowing this down, and if the GFS models are correct, it will impact ice in the Hudson Bay as warm air streams north over the Eastern US later next week.

Here is an example of today:




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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #592 on: February 13, 2014, 09:24:02 PM »
Antarctica must very near a record low at the moment:

http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr2/antarctic_AMSR2_nic.png
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #594 on: February 13, 2014, 10:44:53 PM »
Warm air intrusions into the CAB will keep slowing this down, and if the GFS models are correct, it will impact ice in the Hudson Bay as warm air streams north over the Eastern US later next week.

Here is an example of today:

How reassuring (o.O)

Note the SST anomaly near Svalbard.  It has been around for *months*, and I think may be playing a part here.

polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/color_anomaly_NPS_ophi0.png
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CraigsIsland

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #595 on: February 13, 2014, 11:14:01 PM »
Warm air intrusions into the CAB will keep slowing this down, and if the GFS models are correct, it will impact ice in the Hudson Bay as warm air streams north over the Eastern US later next week.

Here is an example of today:

How reassuring (o.O)

Note the SST anomaly near Svalbard.  It has been around for *months*, and I think may be playing a part here.

polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/color_anomaly_NPS_ophi0.png

Is the cause of warmer water due to more heat in the North Atlantic Drift?

jdallen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #596 on: February 13, 2014, 11:42:20 PM »
Warm air intrusions into the CAB will keep slowing this down, and if the GFS models are correct, it will impact ice in the Hudson Bay as warm air streams north over the Eastern US later next week.

Here is an example of today:

How reassuring (o.O)

Note the SST anomaly near Svalbard.  It has been around for *months*, and I think may be playing a part here.

polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/color_anomaly_NPS_ophi0.png

Is the cause of warmer water due to more heat in the North Atlantic Drift?
Probably not. Part of the drift does split off and head into the CAB via that route.  I don't think it is more heat in the drift per se.  It might be caused by a change in circulation.  The Atlantic currents have always had enough heat to cause an anomaly like this. Typically, they just don't show up at the surface, the saltier, heavier Atlantic water tending to flow a hundred meters or more below the surface arctic waters.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #597 on: February 14, 2014, 01:42:36 AM »
Warm air intrusions into the CAB will keep slowing this down, and if the GFS models are correct, it will impact ice in the Hudson Bay as warm air streams north over the Eastern US later next week.

Here is an example of today:

How reassuring (o.O)
Note the SST anomaly near Svalbard.  It has been around for *months*, and I think may be playing a part here.

polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/color_anomaly_NPS_ophi0.png

And to think that, today, sunlight was only present in Svalbard for just over an hour and by the end of February that will have increased to over 7 hours/day.  Meanwhile, on the other side of the Arctic, the slush in the Bering Sea and the Sea of Okhotsz is already being bathed in 8 hours/day of sunlight.  And then there's the CAB where the DMI temps are currently 15o (C) above normal.  And according to the charts provided by A4R, more warm air will be flowing into the Arctic basin in the next few days.  There don't seem to be many venues for Extent to increase substantially in the very near future.

The "engineer" part of my brain doesn't want to predict what will happen in the next 3-6 weeks, however I can't help myself from playing with some of the number of what has happened in the past 10 years.  I've calculated the Extent gain, from  today's date, until the annual maximum for each of the past 10 years.  Taking those 10 annual gains, I added those values to the current IJIS Extent for February 12th, 2014.

In 3 cases, the 2014 Extent maximum would be less than 13,900 km2.

Another 4 cases, the 2014 Extent maximum would still be the lowest on record.

In 2 cases, the 2014 Extent maximum would be the 4th lowest on record.

In 1 case, the 2014 Extent maximum would be the 5th lowest on record.

FYI, the average daily Extent loss, in the past 10 years, for the last 2 weeks of February is just less that 16K km2/day, however the standard deviation on that would be very, very high!!

Under no circumstance is the Arctic Sea Ice undergoing a "Rebound", much to the chagrin of Watts & Company!!
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Espen

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Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #599 on: February 14, 2014, 08:55:15 AM »
JIS:

13,630,738 km2 (February 13, 2014) 

Down 145,993 km2 for this date, previous record 2011

Down 313,357 km2 for this date 2012.

If this is around the peak area for this season, it will certainly be an interesting season to follow.
« Last Edit: February 14, 2014, 09:00:29 AM by Espen »
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