During the years 2002-2014 there have been a rather high similarity in the SIE loss according to IJIS data from August 11 to SIE minimum from 2007-2014:
2002: down 1,1 Mn km2
2003: down 0,9 Mn km2
2004: down 1,25 Mn km2
2005: down 1,1 Mn km2
2006: down 0,8 Mn km2
2007: down 1,25 Mn km2
2008: down 1,5 Mn km2
2009: down 1,2 Mn km2
2010: down 1,4 Mn km2
2011: down 1,4 Mn km2
2012: down 1,7 Mn km2
2013: down 1,2 Mn km2
2014: down 1,2 Mn km2
If we are limiting ourselves to the years 2007-2014 we should most likely see an additional 1,2 Mn km2 in sea ice extent numbers. Maybe 1,4-1,5 Mn km2 if weather conditions are favorable. That said, IJIS SIE number for August 11 was 5,722,632 km2. Thus I think it's fair to say that the SIE minimum for 2015 will end up somewhere around 4,2-4,5 Mn km2. This would equal to a third, fourth or fifth place. With this mathematics we realize that it would require a record melt to beat 2007 at second place. Even 2011 at third place could be tricky as it would require a loss of 1,5 Mn km2.
2012? Well, a loss of 2,6 Mn km2 is more or less just utopia. But hey, there might be a "Big MAC" coming in the end of ECMWF 12z forecast run for today at August 12.... What kind of damage would such one do to the ice?
Sincerely, LMV