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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1800 on: February 03, 2016, 05:40:08 AM »
IJIS:

13,309,937 km2(February 2, 2016)lowest measured for the date.
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solartim27

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1801 on: February 03, 2016, 07:34:05 AM »
IJIS:

14,035,877 km2(February 20, 2014) went trough the 14 million roof, but late?

Well, not all that late. Here are the days for previous when the 14 million km2 threshold was first crossed:

2014: 20 February
2013: 09 February
2012: 15 February
2011: 06 March
2010: 14 February
2010s average: 16 February

2009: 05 February
2008: 28 January
2007: 13 February
2006: 08 March
2005: 16 February
2004: 06 February
2003: 17 January
2000s average: 29 January
IJIS:

So the result is: 2015 will be the earliest max. (Feb. 15) and will be the first year not to reach the 14 million mark (13,942,060 km2).
Wow, that graph is looking flat this year.  I think 2015 will be beat for earliest max, and lowest as well.
FNORD

jdallen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1802 on: February 03, 2016, 08:41:23 AM »
IJIS:

14,035,877 km2(February 20, 2014) went trough the 14 million roof, but late?

Well, not all that late. Here are the days for previous when the 14 million km2 threshold was first crossed:

2014: 20 February
2013: 09 February
2012: 15 February
2011: 06 March
2010: 14 February
2010s average: 16 February

2009: 05 February
2008: 28 January
2007: 13 February
2006: 08 March
2005: 16 February
2004: 06 February
2003: 17 January
2000s average: 29 January
IJIS:

So the result is: 2015 will be the earliest max. (Feb. 15) and will be the first year not to reach the 14 million mark (13,942,060 km2).
Wow, that graph is looking flat this year.  I think 2015 will be beat for earliest max, and lowest as well.
We are at the point where numbers begin to flatten.

Going back the last 12 years (which are what I have good IJIS data for), I've compared the loss from this date (2/3) to the yearly maximum.  Here's what I get.

Year   Increase from 2/3 to Max
2003   1092562
2004   607031
2005   317968
2006   304308
2007   494331
2008   805890
2009   645700
2010   396365.5
2011   358956
2012   228472
2013   452389
2014   373126
2015   314866

Working out the average and SDEV gives us this envelope for where this years maxiumum is likely to land.
   
Probability   Resulting Max
+2 SDEV   14285439
+1 SDEV   14043065
Average   13800690
-1 SDEV   13558315
-2 SDEV   13315940

If you look at just the last 5 years, the picture is a lot worse, but possibly more accurate:

+2 SDEV    13815749
+1 SDEV   13739389
Average   13663029
-1 SDEV   13586669
-2 SDEV   13510309

So, I'd say at this point, it is over 90% likely we will have a new low Max in 2016.  I'm going to hedge high and predict it will be on the high side, between 13.75 and 13.85 million KM2.

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Buddy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1803 on: February 03, 2016, 12:56:56 PM »
Arctic sea ice max could happen anytime between now....and mid March.

We are heading towards a world of fast changes in the ice landscape.  A much warmer than usual winter in the Arctic has set us up for a POSSIBLE early freeze.  Mid February is NOT out of the question.

The Russian side of the Arctic has been the "warm side" over the past couple of weeks...and is forecast to remain so.

The Arctic and Greenland may be ready to show us some fireworks this year....... Temps in Canada, northern Russia, and the northern US have all been warm.  Will be interesting to see how quickly the snow cover goes away in the late spring.

The table is being set....the only question is when the guests will show up. 



 
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crandles

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1804 on: February 03, 2016, 02:21:18 PM »
I've compared the loss from this date (2/3) to the yearly maximum.  Here's what I get.

Surely we haven't got data for 3rd Feb yet only 2nd Feb so doesn't that misses out a day of gain. Maybe not huge but I would tend to think more than a 10% chance of not being a record low max. I get 10, 12 13 and 14 paths from last data day all not being a record low. Perhaps I am missing something as that seems a big difference for just one days gain being missed?

OldLeatherneck

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1805 on: February 03, 2016, 04:13:53 PM »
......SNIP>>>>

Going back the last 12 years (which are what I have good IJIS data for), I've compared the loss from this date (2/3) to the yearly maximum.  Here's what I get.

Year   Increase from 2/3 to Max
2003   1092562
2004   607031
2005   317968
2006   304308
2007   494331
2008   805890
2009   645700
2010   396365.5
2011   358956
2012   228472
2013   452389
2014   373126
2015   314866


........SNIP>>>>>

I get completely different numbers for the IJIS Extent gain from February 2nd until the Annual MAX.  Here is what I get for the past four years:

Year    Date    Max Extent       Gain
2012   7-Mar    14,709,086     1,173,253
2013   1-Mar    14,513,370        842,191
2014   20-Mar    14,448,416       766,391
2015   15-Feb    13,942,060       377,696
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jdallen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1806 on: February 03, 2016, 05:30:44 PM »
<snippage>

I get completely different numbers for the IJIS Extent gain from February 2nd until the Annual MAX.  Here is what I get for the past four years:

Year    Date    Max Extent       Gain
2012   7-Mar    14,709,086     1,173,253
2013   1-Mar    14,513,370        842,191
2014   20-Mar    14,448,416       766,391
2015   15-Feb    13,942,060       377,696
Serves me right for rushing in the wee hours of the night.

This however, is what peer review is for :)

Not sure what I did, but here's my reworked numbers.

Year     Max             2/2 Ext   Net Gain   Projected
(using 2/2/2016 start)
2003   15066086   14441989   624097   13934034
2004   14701388   13834932   866456   14176393
2005   14396094   13602999   793095   14103032
2006   14132380   13546479   585901   13895838
2007   14209677   13808252   401425   13711362
2008   14774776   14065415   709361   14019298
2009   14657047   13957738   699309   14009246
2010   14688540   13641747   1046793   14356730
2011   14127729   13632313   495416   13805353
2012   14709086   13535833   1173253   14483190
2013   14523635   13671179   852456   14162393
2014   14448416   13682025   766391   14076328
2015   13942060   13564364   377696   13687633
            
            
    722435           Average Growth
13309937           2/2 2016 Extent
    233714           STDEV
14499799           +2
14266086           +1
14032372           Average
13798658            -1
13564945           -2


So, Crandles, you are correct.  Hitting last year's value is about a 50/50 proposition based on previous years behavior between now and Max.  My Hedge was about 150K KM2 low.  I think, considering the weather, I may stick with it.
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Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1807 on: February 03, 2016, 08:20:48 PM »
Here's the most recent IJIS graph showing where 2016 would end up were it to follow the behavior of other years. As you can see at a glance, it's very possible, and maybe even likely, 2016 will cross the 14K mark sometime in the next 4-8 weeks. Of course, it's also possible it'll stay below that mark. We shall see...


Lord M Vader

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1808 on: February 03, 2016, 10:24:00 PM »
The max should with 99% likelihood occur somewhere between February 15 and March 31 so a lot can still happen.

I seriously doubt the max will be as early as last year. I also believe we'll creep over 14 mn km2 before the melt season starts.

The most interesting right now is: how much snow has been fallen on the ice and how thick is the snow cover on the ice? Another thing which is worth to point out is: will the melt onset be unusually early this year? If one look at the DMI graph for 1998 it was very very early. If the same comes out this year in tandem with good melt conditions the sea ice will be in serious trouble!

//LMV

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1809 on: February 04, 2016, 05:23:02 AM »
IJIS:

13,370,134 km2(February 3, 2016)lowest measured for the date.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1810 on: February 05, 2016, 05:36:07 AM »
IJIS:

13,417,505 km2(February 4, 2016)lowest measured for the date.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1811 on: February 06, 2016, 10:41:44 AM »
IJIS:

13,461,104 km2(February 5, 2016)lowest measured for the date.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1812 on: February 07, 2016, 11:35:27 AM »
IJIS:

13,560,967 km2(February 6, 2016)2nd lowest measured for the date.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1813 on: February 08, 2016, 04:24:35 AM »
IJIS:

13,601,644 km2(February 7, 2016) lowest measured for the date.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1814 on: February 09, 2016, 05:47:18 AM »
IJIS:

13,603,941 km2(February 8, 2016)lowest measured for the date.
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Buddy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1815 on: February 09, 2016, 01:30:09 PM »
Looks like more heat heading towards the Arctic starting Thursday.....and slowly accelerating through NEXT Tuesday according to CCI reanalyze.

The Arctic sea ice max this year COULD be another early one like last year.... :-[

The last month has seen a lot of warmth from Svalbard to the eastern Russian coast...
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jdallen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1816 on: February 09, 2016, 05:20:34 PM »
Looks like more heat heading towards the Arctic starting Thursday.....and slowly accelerating through NEXT Tuesday according to CCI reanalyze.

The Arctic sea ice max this year COULD be another early one like last year.... :-[

The last month has seen a lot of warmth from Svalbard to the eastern Russian coast...
Let's quantify it a bit.

Draw a line from a bit north of Svalbard across the Barents to the strait at the NE tip of Nova Zemyla and on to the Russian coast.  Below that line, temperatures (SST's in particular) have been consistently 5-10C above normal, generally near or above -10C, for the best part of a month.

The DMI 80N average dropped sharply this week, but *still* is 5C above normal.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1817 on: February 10, 2016, 05:38:28 AM »
IJIS:

13,612,599 km2(February 9, 2016)lowest measured for the date.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1818 on: February 11, 2016, 05:45:24 AM »
IJIS:

13,546,847 km2(February 10, 2016)lowest measured for the date.
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oren

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1819 on: February 11, 2016, 07:15:46 AM »
Just when I thought it was going to lose its 1st place status, it actually went down...

Buddy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1820 on: February 11, 2016, 12:49:21 PM »
Quote
Just when I thought it was going to lose its 1st place status, it actually went down...

Just think...February 10th, and we could be CLOSE to a max..... :-[
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magnamentis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1821 on: February 11, 2016, 02:18:05 PM »
next 10 day it's getting cold in places where we have not yet seen any or much ice this year, i.e. st. laurence, hence i'm sure we gonna go up another bit and that huge gap around svalbard is good for a sudden freeze any time the weather pattern would change, so i'm careful with predictions as to an early high.

just meant as a bit of exchange not contradicting the possibility for an early one at all but last year was very special when i comes to that, let's see  8)

Buddy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1822 on: February 11, 2016, 02:46:53 PM »
Quote
just meant as a bit of exchange not contradicting the possibility for an early one at all but last year was very special when i comes to that, let's see  8)

I agree.  By the way....."exchange" is a healthy thing.

The problem that "we humans" have is that we are on a trail that has be leading us into uncharted waters.  Each....or almost each....succeeding year will take us further and further into what HAS BEEN...the unknown....and in some cases "unthinkable."

Ice will max out earlier and earlier in the winter......and will melt longer and longer in the fall.

If you look at the forecast temps for the Arctic above 80 degrees....it is going to be warming up in a few days.  January was a VERY WARM month for the Arctic.  February has cooled down some....and now we look to be heading warmer again.

It is very POSSIBLE that we have already maxed out.  Not LIKELY....but POSSIBLE.

The Atlantic side of the ice sheet is EXTREMEMLY vulnerable this year because of the greater warmth.....and surges of warmth via tropical storms pushed north.

This is setting up to be a "wild ride" in the Arctic this melt season.....
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magnamentis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1823 on: February 11, 2016, 05:50:04 PM »
agree as to warming up  above 80° but for an early maximum we need warmth below 80° which is where some of the surprisingly still ice-free locations can be found and exactly there it will be cold for 3-5 days and once the ice will be in place we don't need -20C for it to grow further.

this is explicitly the case west of Newfoundland as well as the part a bit south of bering slightly to the east where we had much more ice last year and where a few days of extracold could make quite a significant area freeze over in a nutshell. above 80° the greater part is already ice-covered and the expected temps would not make for significant melting in that part. even here in southern spain we expect the coldest days of the year around 15C still to come next week, even though it will last only 3-4 days as well till we get up into the 20ies again.

however, agree to all that you wrote in general :-) hence let's see indeed.

cheers

EDIT: this is a nice tool to compare various dates of different years in a splitsecond: http://kuroshio.eorc.jaxa.jp/JASMES/daily/polar/index.html?date=&prod=SIC&area=NP&sensor=MOD
« Last Edit: February 11, 2016, 05:56:58 PM by magnamentis »

folke_kelm

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1824 on: February 11, 2016, 06:13:07 PM »
" we could be CLOSE to a max"

wait and see. But, if it was, it would be stunning. Just now we have an intrusion of cold air from north, Sleepy will confirm it soon i think. This cold air will of course be repalced with warmer air intruding high up in the north......not good.

jdallen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1825 on: February 11, 2016, 09:50:09 PM »
agree as to warming up  above 80° but for an early maximum we need warmth below 80° which is where some of the surprisingly still ice-free locations can be found and exactly there it will be cold for 3-5 days and once the ice will be in place we don't need -20C for it to grow further.

this is explicitly the case west of Newfoundland as well as the part a bit south of bering slightly to the east where we had much more ice last year and where a few days of extracold could make quite a significant area freeze over in a nutshell. above 80° the greater part is already ice-covered and the expected temps would not make for significant melting in that part. even here in southern spain we expect the coldest days of the year around 15C still to come next week, even though it will last only 3-4 days as well till we get up into the 20ies again.

however, agree to all that you wrote in general :-) hence let's see indeed.

cheers

EDIT: this is a nice tool to compare various dates of different years in a splitsecond: http://kuroshio.eorc.jaxa.jp/JASMES/daily/polar/index.html?date=&prod=SIC&area=NP&sensor=MOD

I agree with you in general, but that extra extent won't provide us much considering how much heat has been retained so far.

You put your finger exactly on the issue though - cold air being displaced.  Instead of being "heated" by thermal transfer out of the ocean it is shifted south to be heated there.  The normal heat transfers that would permit true ice growth are being disrupted mightily.

A significant fraction of heat being radiated out of high latitudes isn't being drawn from the Arctic Ocean and it's peripheral seas, but rather from El Nino (follow the persistant flow across N. America along the Atlantic Seaboard over the last few weeks...).   I wish I could quantify it - perhaps the best way would be to see where the difference in degree days ends up.


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magnamentis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1826 on: February 11, 2016, 10:52:30 PM »
again full agreement but then i remind you that the original topic was the point in time when the max will be reached and if the two areas i described above will  freeze over to a certain extent during the next 10 days chance is good that we miss the deadline. however for me this is big fun, now i'm even more curious what will happen of course. we meet in a few days though. looking forward to it.  ;D

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1827 on: February 12, 2016, 05:27:44 AM »
" we could be CLOSE to a max"

wait and see. But, if it was, it would be stunning. Just now we have an intrusion of cold air from north, Sleepy will confirm it soon i think. This cold air will of course be repalced with warmer air intruding high up in the north......not good.

Confirmed today, Folke!

I made a couple of animations earlier in the refreeze thread, here from GFS:
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1377.msg69378.html#msg69378
And here from ECMWF:
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1377.msg69472.html#msg69472
Both of them indicated a stratospheric warming. Initially, regular weather forecasts didn't show a response but they did later on.
We will have winter and ice for a few days! :)

After that, winter might be over. If we do get colder in March and/or April (speculating around a declining El Nino), it won't bring us winter conditions. It's too warm.

Add to that, there are signs of a reinforcement coming for our current El Nino. We might be surprised by nature, as we often do.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1828 on: February 12, 2016, 05:40:58 AM »
IJIS:

13,481,905 km2(February 11, 2016)lowest value measured for the date.
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Neven

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1829 on: February 12, 2016, 09:20:46 AM »
Guys, the freezing season thread is here.

But yes, with a 141K drop in the past 2 days IJIS SIE might have peaked. Let me emphasize the word might, because it would be mindblowing if it happened.
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Sleepy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1830 on: February 13, 2016, 09:28:01 AM »
Guys, the freezing season thread is here.
That might be the problem right now Neven? ;)

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1831 on: February 13, 2016, 09:36:25 AM »
IJIS:

13,461,801 km2(February 12, 2016)lowest value measured for the date.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1832 on: February 14, 2016, 10:25:19 AM »
IJIS:

13,546,428 km2(February 13, 2016)lowest value measured for the date.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1833 on: February 15, 2016, 04:42:48 AM »
IJIS:

13,572,323 km2(February 14, 2016)lowest value measured for the date.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1834 on: February 16, 2016, 05:41:46 AM »
IJIS:

13,620,885 km2(February 15, 2016)lowest value measured for the date.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1835 on: February 17, 2016, 06:24:00 AM »
IJIS:

13,666,867 km2(February 16, 2016)lowest value measured for the date.
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oren

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1836 on: February 17, 2016, 07:15:07 AM »
A new high for 2016 if I am not mistaken.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1837 on: February 18, 2016, 05:47:35 AM »
IJIS:

13,611,662 km2(February 17, 2016)lowest value measured for the date.
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1838 on: February 18, 2016, 02:25:31 PM »
A new high for 2016 if I am not mistaken.

With daylight having returned up at 82°N +/- (Alert, Nunavut), among other factors relating to ongoing unusually warm weather, max may have been reached, sorry to say.

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1839 on: February 18, 2016, 03:57:13 PM »
Still takes a month till you have any appreciable warmth from that. A bit of insolation at 5 degrees angle does near nothing (less than 40W/m^2 for a couple of hours), so <<5W/m^2 over a day. The max may or may not be reached due to the persistent WLA on the European side, but just due to insolation we should have > 2 more weeks of growth.

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1840 on: February 18, 2016, 05:20:26 PM »
80°N between February 26:th and April 18:th visualized thanks to:
http://pveducation.org/pvcdrom/properties-of-sunlight/calculation-of-solar-insolation

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1841 on: February 18, 2016, 05:31:26 PM »
While there it surely are a couple of weeks until the sun starts to work out in the Arctic, at least the "Arctic fish areas", e.g Okhotsk, Scandinavia and St Lawrence are at such "low" latitudes that the sun soon will start to impact the water temperatures.

Which areas do have the best chance to see ice growth until sunstice? Well, given the anomalously warm water in Barents the potential seems low. Personally, Okhotsk and Labrador Sea should have the best opportunity then.

Finally, I think Neven will have a look at the ECMWF 00z run which by day 7-10 hints the possibilty of a strong ridge building over the CAB. The forecast for AO also calls for a move to slight negative values.

Best, LMV

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1842 on: February 19, 2016, 05:39:50 AM »
IJIS:

13,547,054 km2(February 18, 2016)lowest value measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

jdallen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1843 on: February 19, 2016, 06:53:11 AM »
IJIS:

13,547,054 km2(February 18, 2016)lowest value measured for the date.
This is SO not good...
This space for Rent.

Buddy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1844 on: February 19, 2016, 02:12:30 PM »
Quote
80°N between February 26:th and April 18:th

That is a good visualization.   :o

Given where we are with ice extent....and given that the ice is thin......and cracking early.....the sun is starting its work early this year.  Will be interesting to see how much melt we get in April.  This years April....might be like a recent years May.  :-[



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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1845 on: February 20, 2016, 08:10:25 AM »
IJIS:

13,577,466 km2(February 19, 2016)lowest value measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1846 on: February 21, 2016, 07:25:46 AM »
IJIS:

13,603,479 km2(February 20, 2016)lowest value measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Shared Humanity

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1847 on: February 21, 2016, 02:46:38 PM »
I don't think we've hit the max yet but it sure looks like we could be lowest for the date right into the melt season.

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1848 on: February 21, 2016, 03:19:53 PM »
Would expect that the area still scratches the 13 Mio. and vice versa the extent goes up a bit. Reasoning is that Ochotsk and Bering are still going to have some growth, while the losses in the Kara/Barents region should have maxed out (and just nick the main ice body a bit over to the European side, - replacement with thin ice will then drive area/extent up). We saw that game in 2012...

magnamentis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1849 on: February 21, 2016, 03:37:22 PM »
ochotsk south is melting already, concentration has been reduced significantly and two things have to be considered, why should it grow further, it already has almost twice the extent of last year and then check the sun angle in the souther part, air temps are definitely mostly above freezing during day time, at least on sunny days, it's ways south after all :-) bering could grow but IMO will not because the forecast for the next 10 days is against it and in 10-15 days the sun will be way into the providing heat azimuth. what remains is the question whether a cold period in early march around svalbard could bring back a significant amount of thin but counting ice cover that could boost extent, even though not very relevant for the melting season, by quite a big amount for a few days which could still make for a march high. we should keep in mind that the farther north the ice edge is, the bigger the possibility that we see greater fluctuations till rather late in the freezing season.