<snippage>
I get completely different numbers for the IJIS Extent gain from February 2nd until the Annual MAX. Here is what I get for the past four years:
Year Date Max Extent Gain
2012 7-Mar 14,709,086 1,173,253
2013 1-Mar 14,513,370 842,191
2014 20-Mar 14,448,416 766,391
2015 15-Feb 13,942,060 377,696
Serves me right for rushing in the wee hours of the night.
This however, is what peer review is for
Not sure what I did, but here's my reworked numbers.
Year Max 2/2 Ext Net Gain Projected (using 2/2/2016 start)
2003 15066086 14441989 624097 13934034
2004 14701388 13834932 866456 14176393
2005 14396094 13602999 793095 14103032
2006 14132380 13546479 585901 13895838
2007 14209677 13808252 401425 13711362
2008 14774776 14065415 709361 14019298
2009 14657047 13957738 699309 14009246
2010 14688540 13641747 1046793 14356730
2011 14127729 13632313 495416 13805353
2012 14709086 13535833 1173253 14483190
2013 14523635 13671179 852456 14162393
2014 14448416 13682025 766391 14076328
2015 13942060 13564364 377696 13687633
722435 Average Growth
13309937 2/2 2016 Extent
233714 STDEV
14499799 +2
14266086 +1
14032372 Average
13798658 -1
13564945 -2
So, Crandles, you are correct. Hitting last year's value is about a 50/50 proposition based on previous years behavior between now and Max. My Hedge was about 150K KM2 low. I think, considering the weather, I may stick with it.