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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1900 on: March 18, 2016, 05:37:03 AM »
IJIS:

13,841,505 km2(March 17, 2016)
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1901 on: March 19, 2016, 08:56:04 AM »
IJIS:

13,902,527 km2(March 18, 2016)
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1902 on: March 20, 2016, 10:33:32 AM »
IJIS:

13,894,079 km2(March 19, 2016)
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1903 on: March 21, 2016, 04:22:29 AM »
IJIS:

13,910,563 km2(March 20, 2016)
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1904 on: March 22, 2016, 04:23:05 AM »
IJIS:

13,934,154 km2(March 21, 2016)
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1905 on: March 23, 2016, 05:36:52 AM »
IJIS:

13,926,152 km2(March 22, 2016)
« Last Edit: March 24, 2016, 07:32:01 AM by Espen »
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1906 on: March 24, 2016, 06:57:54 AM »
IJIS:

13,899,979 km2(March 23, 2016)
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slow wing

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1907 on: March 24, 2016, 09:14:37 AM »
This is probably largely numerology rather than of physical significance, but the IJIS area has been plateaued at 13.87 +/- 0.09 million km^2 since 24 February, when it climbed to 13.78 in those units, with the maximum so far of 13.96 on 29 February. That's 29 days and counting.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1908 on: March 25, 2016, 08:08:16 AM »
IJIS:

13,862,037 km2(March 24, 2016)
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1909 on: March 26, 2016, 08:32:14 AM »
IJIS:

13,823,186 km2(March 25, 2016)2nd lowest measured for the date.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1910 on: March 27, 2016, 08:55:43 AM »
IJIS:

13,804,225 km2(March 26, 2016)2nd lowest measured for the date.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1911 on: March 28, 2016, 08:47:07 AM »
IJIS:

13,800,077 km2(March 27, 2016)2nd lowest measured for the date.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1912 on: March 29, 2016, 05:23:55 AM »
IJIS:

13,780,860 km2(March 28, 2016)
« Last Edit: March 29, 2016, 05:29:13 AM by Espen »
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jdallen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1913 on: March 29, 2016, 06:22:29 AM »
IJIS:

13,780,860 km2(March 28, 2016)
And now we start the fall.
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oren

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1914 on: March 29, 2016, 06:54:38 AM »
IJIS:

13,780,860 km2(March 28, 2016)
And now we start the fall.

Exactly my thoughts. Bye bye plateau.

Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1915 on: March 29, 2016, 12:48:04 PM »
IJIS:

13,780,860 km2(March 28, 2016)
And now we start the fall.

Yes--though, more accurately, we've seen seven consecutive days of IJIS extent decreases, so that fall began a week ago... :)

jdallen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1916 on: March 29, 2016, 05:45:36 PM »
IJIS:

13,780,860 km2(March 28, 2016)
And now we start the fall.

Yes--though, more accurately, we've seen seven consecutive days of IJIS extent decreases, so that fall began a week ago... :)
True enough, Jim.

In part I was also looking at all of the plots, not just this years.  I was musing over how right about now is when they all start "winging over" into the dive towards minimum.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1917 on: March 30, 2016, 05:41:40 AM »
IJIS:

13,697,343 km2(March 29, 2016)2nd lowest measured for the date.
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slow wing

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1918 on: March 30, 2016, 06:25:00 AM »
This is probably largely numerology rather than of physical significance, but the IJIS area has been plateaued at 13.87 +/- 0.09 million km^2 since 24 February, when it climbed to 13.78 in those units, with the maximum so far of 13.96 on 29 February. That's 29 days and counting.
The 13.70 million km^2 on 29 March ends the flat plateau of 13.87 +/- 0.09 million km^2 at 34 days duration.

That the area plateau can remain so flat for so many days emphasizes that the actual date of the maximum area will likely be of little physical significance and of little use in looking for year-to-year trends.

Nick_Naylor

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1919 on: March 30, 2016, 12:45:37 PM »
That the area plateau can remain so flat for so many days emphasizes that the actual date of the maximum area will likely be of little physical significance and of little use in looking for year-to-year trends.

True, assuming this year's pattern is more than a blip. 2011 was very similar.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1920 on: March 31, 2016, 05:37:00 AM »
IJIS:

13,560,921 km2(March 30, 2016)lowest measured for the date,
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DrTskoul

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1921 on: March 31, 2016, 06:19:56 AM »
Quite the left turn.....

IJIS:

13,560,921 km2(March 30, 2016)lowest measured for the date,
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1922 on: April 01, 2016, 05:39:44 AM »
IJIS:

13,496,200 km2(March 31, 2016)lowest measured for the date,
Have a ice day!

Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1923 on: April 01, 2016, 01:12:54 PM »
IJIS:

13,496,200 km2(March 31, 2016)lowest measured for the date,

That's ten consecutive days of losses, at a fairly amazing (for March) average of 44k per day. But of greater interest--well, to me--2016 extent is now more than a million square kilometers lower than it was on this same day in 2012. That doesn't, of course, imply that 2016 will bottom out a million square kilometers lower than did 2012--but it does increase the odds that 2016 will finish lower than that year.

magnamentis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1924 on: April 01, 2016, 01:25:49 PM »
this and even more so since the general "health" of the ice is what i'd call in a very "ill" state across the board

generally i think that since wheather conditions have a great impact on peak data and dates, the general condition of the system as whole will prevail in the long run and that said i think that:

a) the volume, indicatng the "amount of ice" totally present is very low and i suspect it's even lower than thought

b) the energy in the system in form of higher temps, ice, water and air, is significantly higher and sooner or later, the "right" weather conditions provided, will catch us all on the wrong foot, 2012 could serve as a harbinger here.

using the opportunity to thank you for you valuable work, last but not least for all the graphics and stats you're providing all over the place. checking daily :-)

Buddy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1925 on: April 01, 2016, 01:25:59 PM »
Quote
2016 extent is now more than a million square kilometers lower than it was on this same day in 2012.

That IS....pretty startling.  And while the minimum this coming September IS a "future event"...full of possibilities, I think the LIKLIHOOD of a new record low is EXTREMELY LIKELY given:

1)  Warming waters
2)  El Nino hangover effect
3)  Low ice cover now...
4)  Arctic amplification now in full force....and ramping up further

This has all the makings of another "crash year" that will leave people astounded.  Remember....we're heading TOWARDS the end....and as we get towards the end of ice in the Arctic....I would EXPECT the last SEVERAL YEARS to crash.  I think basic physics tells us that......as we get to the end of ice, when there is only thin ice....that the last bits go quite easily.

I have maintained for several years that 2016 will only have significant ice along a swath a few hundred miles wide and 1200 -1500 miles long north of the Canadian Archipelago plus a "smattering" in the CAB.  We're heading towards that.......

 
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Buddy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1926 on: April 01, 2016, 01:40:36 PM »
One other thing....related to the "crashing ice"....is that WITHIN 5 years....the world will be starting a "Marshall plan" to move away from fossil fuels.  In fact.....the "first salvo" has already been fired by the Chinese in their proposal for $50 TRILLION dollars of new infrastructure worldwide.

The crashing of the Arctic ice sheet.....whether that is this year or next year or the year after that....will heighten those calls for the FASTER movement away from fossil fuels.

All the science and physics are coming together.....both the "negative effects" of what we have done to the planet....PLUS...all the positive advances that have been made in alternative energy.

It's funny how the truth can NEVER BE BURIED FOREVER.  It just "hangs around" till more people figure it out.

By the way:  Kudo's to Neven......Peter Sinclair.....of course Dr. Hansen.....McKibben....SkepticalScience....the thousands of scientists that have done work for decades....etc.  It is the many thousands of individuals and groups that keep hammering about the truth....that hastens our movement towards a much better world without fossil fuels.  And it is ALL the individuals LIKE MOST OF THE PEOPLE ON THE THIS SITE....that will make it possible.

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marcel_g

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1927 on: April 01, 2016, 04:56:10 PM »
One other thing....related to the "crashing ice"....is that WITHIN 5 years....the world will be starting a "Marshall plan" to move away from fossil fuels.  In fact.....the "first salvo" has already been fired by the Chinese in their proposal for $50 TRILLION dollars of new infrastructure worldwide.

The crashing of the Arctic ice sheet.....whether that is this year or next year or the year after that....will heighten those calls for the FASTER movement away from fossil fuels.

All the science and physics are coming together.....both the "negative effects" of what we have done to the planet....PLUS...all the positive advances that have been made in alternative energy.

It's funny how the truth can NEVER BE BURIED FOREVER.  It just "hangs around" till more people figure it out.

By the way:  Kudo's to Neven......Peter Sinclair.....of course Dr. Hansen.....McKibben....SkepticalScience....the thousands of scientists that have done work for decades....etc.  It is the many thousands of individuals and groups that keep hammering about the truth....that hastens our movement towards a much better world without fossil fuels.  And it is ALL the individuals LIKE MOST OF THE PEOPLE ON THE THIS SITE....that will make it possible.

I agree Buddy, once we've lost the ice in the summer, even for a few weeks before it starts to refreeze, there will be a lot of open water absorbing heat, and arctic amplification will really take hold and northern hemisphere weather patterns will be completely changed. if i understand what i've been reading correctly, the jet stream will never come back, and the weather will be so messed up that not only will ecosystems everywhere be thrown out of whack, but our major agricultural areas will be subjected to droughts and floods we're really not ready for. so i worry alot about food pricing. there's alot of amazing things happening now in science and tech, but i'm not sure ag science is going to be able to keep up.

also agree wholeheartedly with your kudos, i'm very thankful for all the people who've kept on about CC even though no one appeared to be listening.

jdallen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1928 on: April 01, 2016, 05:20:38 PM »
IJIS:

13,496,200 km2(March 31, 2016)lowest measured for the date,

That's ten consecutive days of losses, at a fairly amazing (for March) average of 44k per day. But of greater interest--well, to me--2016 extent is now more than a million square kilometers lower than it was on this same day in 2012. That doesn't, of course, imply that 2016 will bottom out a million square kilometers lower than did 2012--but it does increase the odds that 2016 will finish lower than that year.
In 2012, we lost over 11.5 million KM2.  Average over the last few years has been about 9.7 million KM2.  We need only exceed average by about 700,000KM2 to pass 2012.  If we have a year like 2012, we will be flirting with the "ice free Arctic" limit.
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Neven

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1929 on: April 01, 2016, 06:02:11 PM »
It was the same case last year, ie 2015 was 1 million km2 ahead of 2012 around this time, and I warned people that the difference would disappear once all of the easy ice had melted out. That's because PIOMAS volume was relatively high after the two rebound years, and 2012 had a high maximum because of very late ice growth at the edges.

However, I won't be doing that this year, because volume is as low as 2012 (a tad lower even) and after a crazy winter like we've just had, there's no telling what could happen. If this transition period from freezing to melting is followed by a relatively high amount of melt ponds during May and June, things will get really interesting, as in the Chinese proverb.  :-\
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1930 on: April 01, 2016, 06:46:19 PM »
I allocated 2016 to be a game changer, several years ago.
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jdallen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1931 on: April 01, 2016, 06:49:32 PM »
I allocated 2016 to be a game changer, several years ago.
Curiosity prods me to ask what signals were you looking at to make that conclusion, Espen? 

You've been watching the Arctic more closely for longer than I have.

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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1932 on: April 01, 2016, 07:00:23 PM »
There is a rhythm here, first we had 2002-2003, then 2007 and 2012, and back then I predicted the Arctic Ocean could be sea ice free by 2016, but it is purely based on tradesman ship, not to be confused with science ;) 
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1933 on: April 01, 2016, 07:18:34 PM »
It is bit off topic, but if 2016 does break all the records the reactions from deniers will be as shown in the video



PS: Apologies if it offends anyone or it has been discussed before. I only intended it to be funny.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1934 on: April 01, 2016, 07:26:26 PM »
It is bit off topic, but if 2016 does break all the records the reactions from deniers will be as shown in the video



PS: Apologies if it offends anyone or it has been discussed before. I only intended it to be funny.

This bastard is far more entertaining:
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Buddy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1935 on: April 01, 2016, 07:48:26 PM »
Quote
It is bit off topic, but if 2016 does break all the records the reactions from deniers will be as shown in the video

LMFAO..... ;D

I love the Joe Bastardi "Arctic ice sheet expert" video as well.  It is one of my favorites.  Right next to his post on Patriot Post where he uses a PHOTOSHOP version of a Time Magazine cover to prove his point.

Yea.....ole Joe is going to have a REAL "come to Jesus" in the next 1 - 3 years......along with Watts...Goddard....O'Reilly.....FOX.....NUMEROUS congressmen.

There will be a LOT of people "looking for cover."
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Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1936 on: April 01, 2016, 08:06:39 PM »
It was the same case last year, ie 2015 was 1 million km2 ahead of 2012 around this time, and I warned people that the difference would disappear once all of the easy ice had melted out. That's because PIOMAS volume was relatively high after the two rebound years, and 2012 had a high maximum because of very late ice growth at the edges.

Exactly. Which is why I'm so much more excited about this year's prospect's than last years': things are altogether different in 2016, despite the seeming day-to-day similarities that are really only on the surface.

Lord M Vader

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1937 on: April 01, 2016, 08:37:09 PM »
According to IJIS, the two first dates of interest are April 21 and May 12. These dates corresponds to the earliest dates when the SIE drops below 13 and 12 Million km2 respectively.

Any more century breaks ahead? Wipneus?! :D

Lennart van der Linde

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1938 on: April 01, 2016, 08:38:49 PM »
Espen, you're not also known as Wieslaw Maslowski, are you? In 2012 he also extrapolated the fast Arctic sea ice decline to fall below 1 million km2 by 2016 +/- 3yrs:
http://www.carbonbrief.org/could-arctic-summers-be-sea-ice-free-in-three-years-time

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1939 on: April 01, 2016, 08:52:57 PM »
Espen, you're not also known as Wieslaw Maslowski, are you? In 2012 he also extrapolated the fast Arctic sea ice decline to fall below 1 million km2 by 2016 +/- 3yrs:
http://www.carbonbrief.org/could-arctic-summers-be-sea-ice-free-in-three-years-time

Nope! But I did write something like this in 2013 in Ingeniøren.dk: http://ing.dk/artikel/nasa-meget-lidt-arktisk-vinteris-157610

"Jeg vil påstå med den udvikling som er sket bare indenfor de sidste par år, og som er under udvikling i denne smeltesæson (2013) vil der allerede senest i 2016 være under 500.000 km2 havis tilbage i en periode under sommeren, denne "isfrie" periode vil, hvis udviklingen fortsætter, derefter gradvist forlænges de efterfølgende sommerperioder.
Hvad der så herefter sker er en ligning med tusindvis af ubekendte!"
« Last Edit: April 01, 2016, 09:37:29 PM by Espen »
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1940 on: April 02, 2016, 01:46:50 AM »
Espen, you're not also known as Wieslaw Maslowski, are you? In 2012 he also extrapolated the fast Arctic sea ice decline to fall below 1 million km2 by 2016 +/- 3yrs:
http://www.carbonbrief.org/could-arctic-summers-be-sea-ice-free-in-three-years-time

Nope! But I did write something like this in 2013 in Ingeniøren.dk: http://ing.dk/artikel/nasa-meget-lidt-arktisk-vinteris-157610

"Jeg vil påstå med den udvikling som er sket bare indenfor de sidste par år, og som er under udvikling i denne smeltesæson (2013) vil der allerede senest i 2016 være under 500.000 km2 havis tilbage i en periode under sommeren, denne "isfrie" periode vil, hvis udviklingen fortsætter, derefter gradvist forlænges de efterfølgende sommerperioder.
Hvad der så herefter sker er en ligning med tusindvis af ubekendte!"

Maslowski could well  be spot  on!  Average temperatures across the entire Arctic have been approximately 2 dC about the previous record average so far this year.  To put this in perspective the 10 warmest years previously all fell within 2 dC of each other.  It suggests that  the ice will  be far less prepared for the onslaught  of summer than in any  previous years.
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1941 on: April 02, 2016, 02:42:34 AM »
Espen, you're not also known as Wieslaw Maslowski, are you? In 2012 he also extrapolated the fast Arctic sea ice decline to fall below 1 million km2 by 2016 +/- 3yrs:
http://www.carbonbrief.org/could-arctic-summers-be-sea-ice-free-in-three-years-time

Maslowski's prediction was actually based on volume - not extent.  His original prediction defined 'nearly ice-free' as an 80% reduction from the 1979-2000 summer average.  Joe Romm cleared this up back in 2010:

Quote
*This projection is based on a combined model and data trendline focusing on ice volume. By “ice-free,” Maslowski tells me he means more than an 80% drop from the 1979-2000 summer volume baseline of ~200,00 km^3. Some sea ice above Greenland and Eastern Canada may survive into the 2020s (as the inset in his figure shows), but the Arctic as it has been for apparently a million years will be gone."

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1942 on: April 02, 2016, 06:10:52 AM »
IJIS:

13,461,256 km2(April 1, 2016)lowest measured for the date.
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Lennart van der Linde

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1943 on: April 02, 2016, 08:35:23 AM »
Maslowski's prediction was actually based on volume - not extent.  His original prediction defined 'nearly ice-free' as an 80% reduction from the 1979-2000 summer average.  Joe Romm cleared this up back in 2010:

Quote
*This projection is based on a combined model and data trendline focusing on ice volume. By “ice-free,” Maslowski tells me he means more than an 80% drop from the 1979-2000 summer volume baseline of ~200,00 km^3. Some sea ice above Greenland and Eastern Canada may survive into the 2020s (as the inset in his figure shows), but the Arctic as it has been for apparently a million years will be gone."

Ah, good to know, thanks. I remembered he was talking about volume, but somehow assumed he'd converted that to extent. And it appears he made his original extrapolation in 2006 instead of 2012. Looking at this summer (on-day?) minimum volume chart 2012 was already pretty close to his 80% reduction from the 1979-2000 (whole summer) mean:
https://d3800158-a-62cb3a1a-s-sites.googlegroups.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/longterm/2015_sea_ice_PIOMAS_min.png?attachauth=ANoY7cqs2QYndYQUcmsJgrZMrVsDNni6onhd7V4bFBJfh31fIoNJuJqaIkmhEIJDkxmJ5TrDKVJJ062vFDxrmWw31Ia_D38-h_w2hUtUYPT5sEx42OJ3OAof3YXWszJcpWBjH5xRoga4UPMzte2FelIX9F1ABCLz8DWuPGcdP3ZB16wwTPss1g6Cg_UcTgwmMUwY2ljp4_o0m6NzvUmp9qE4mv5So6fo4NFYy2rjokLA5QdJCsft1iRB2IgOYXRF-mHlXswUwAfQ&attredirects=0

The 2012 paper I was thinking of is this:
http://sci-hub.io/10.1146/annurev-earth-042711-105345

There he says on p.639:
"The modeled evolution of Arctic sea ice volume appears to be more strongly correlated with changes in ice thickness than with ice extent as it shows a similar negative trend beginning around the mid-1990s. When considering this part of the sea ice–volume time series, one can estimate a negative trend of −1,120 km3 year−1 with a standard deviation of ±2,353 km3 year−1 from combined model and most recent observational estimates for October–November 1996–2007. Given the estimated trend and the volume estimate for October–November of 2007 at less than 9,000 km3 (Kwok et al. 2009), one can project that at this rate it would take only 9 more years or until 2016 ± 3 years to reach a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer."

So here he's talking about the Oct-Nov volume and extrapolates to a (nearly) 100% sea ice free in fall (summer).
« Last Edit: April 02, 2016, 08:40:38 AM by Lennart van der Linde »

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1944 on: April 03, 2016, 08:35:26 AM »
IJIS:

13,444,757 km2(April 2, 2016)lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1945 on: April 04, 2016, 06:22:43 AM »
IJIS:

13,447,985 km2(April 3, 2016)lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1946 on: April 05, 2016, 05:24:19 AM »
IJIS:

13,419,920 km2(April 4, 2016)lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1947 on: April 06, 2016, 05:22:10 AM »
IJIS:

13,408,667 km2(April 5, 2016)lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1948 on: April 07, 2016, 05:26:38 AM »
IJIS:

13,352,092 km2(April 6, 2016)
Have a ice day!

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1949 on: April 08, 2016, 05:37:40 AM »
IJIS:

13,309,256 km2(April 7, 2016)
Have a ice day!