IJIS

[Espen]

IJIS:

12,837,134 km²（April 21, 2016）

[Lord M Vader]

WOW!! Almost a century break today.. Now we are down to 12,747 mn km². Going below 12,5 before May 1 doesn't seem unrealistic anymore...

[Espen]

IJIS:

12,747,752 km²（April 22, 2016）

[Sourabh]

I am very excited for such an interesting melting season, but bit sad at the same time.

This is crazy and alarming. This year seems to be ahead of other years in many ways (in an alarming sense). This year there was already less ice and/or thin ice to begin with. So far early melting momentum is already causing a steady melting of ice every day. There are no signs that future melting rate will be moderated. All weather indicators according to several comments in other posts point to conditions very conducive to melting.

This year, there is a high probability that 2012 record will be broken.

[oren]

This chart looks ominous.

[Buddy]

This shouldn't be a surprise to anyone here.  The important part for those in the US is this:  Do you want someone as president of the US (or any country for that matter) that doesn't SEE that this is the most important issue of our time?  If they can't see this......what else are they going to miss?

Too much open water.....too much ocean heat......too much atmospheric heat......too many feedbacks.  I suggest those in the US need to show their neighbors 2 or 3 clear graphs (one being this one and another one being temps)....to show them why this is THEE most important issue of or time.....and likely of ALL TIME.

[Espen]

This year, there is a high probability that 2012 record will be broken.

So they say:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3551520/Arctic-sea-ice-reach-record-lows-summer-Blankets-cover-set-shrink-warmer-weather.html

[magnamentis]

the problem of our current system, be it enterprise policies as well as politics, is that they mostly focus on short term goals, be it for reelection i 4 to 5 years terms ( depending on country ) an in quarterly numbers, yearly at best. any politician and enterprise leader in difficult times who is trying to focus on long term necessities is risking
to become very unpopular and/or ousted. even though we often blame the leaders ( not totally wrong though ) just look how people ( masses and underlings ) behave if the necessary measures starts to hurt them personally and/or scare them. in the wake of any kind of uproar populists eventually take over and the outcome has been seen.

like in the animal world, nature regulates itself by regulating population. once too many deers have eaten most of the bark and foliage in reach population starts to nose dive. in terms of humanity that means mostly famine and/or war unfortunately and i cannot see that anything will change that soon.

spaceship earth is over-populated and consequences are imminent, no way to avoid regulating events.

[Espen]

IJIS:

 12,681,673 km²（April 23, 2016）

[Tensor]

First off, thank you again Espen for your continued work presenting the SIE.  It is truly appreciated from this reader.

While I don't think it's going to reach 12 million by the end of the month, I'm now wondering if it will get to a half a million km² below the current lowest year. 

[bbr2314]

I think 12 million could be possible. There is going to be melt along the borders between the continents and peripheral seas (as well as ongoing/increasing melt in peripheral seas).

The overall scope of obscene warmth is going to expand to almost the entire Arctic by D10. This is unprecedented.

[DavidR]

First off, thank you again Espen for your continued work presenting the SIE.  It is truly appreciated from this reader.

While I don't think it's going to reach 12 million by the end of the month, I'm now wondering if it will get to a half a million km² below the current lowest year.

I  would now put 12.2 as the mid range expectation for May 1st.  That  is 350K below the previous record and requires slightly less melt than we have seen in the last week. Climate Reanalyzer suggests that  most of the border areas will  see massive positive temperature anomalies during the next week.  I  would also  put  the likelihood of a new record low well above 50% and the likelihood of an 'ice free' minimum at, at least, 20%.

[Buddy]

First off, thank you again Espen for your continued work presenting the SIE.  It is truly appreciated from this reader.

Ditto...ditto...ditto.  Same for Jim Petit, Crandles, Hunt, etc....and numerous others (not the least is Neven of course).  LOVE...LOVE...LOVE...to see numbers, FACTS, and science.  Those pesky FACTS and SCIENCE...NEVER go away.

[Tensor]

I  would now put 12.2 as the mid range expectation for May 1st.  That  is 350K below the previous record and requires slightly less melt than we have seen in the last week. Climate Reanalyzer suggests that  most of the border areas will  see massive positive temperature anomalies during the next week.  I  would also  put  the likelihood of a new record low well above 50% and the likelihood of an 'ice free' minimum at, at least, 20%.

My error, I wasn't talking about the end of the month for the half a million.  But from looking at the graph, it appears that by around the 26th, 27th, 28th, it may reach the half a million below the previous low year. After that, the previous years start to drop getting to the 350 k you mentioned for the end of the month.

As for your other two numerical comments, I agree your new record low has over a 50% chance, but I think 20% for an "Ice Free" minimum is too large.   

[OldLeatherneck]

No folks, I haven't gone away.  Just been overwhelmed with other events.  Although, I've been lurking here as often as possible.

I've finally had the time to put my simplistic model together with simple near-term projections.  The only change from last year's version is that I'm using 10 or 11 day bins each month to calculate the average and record losses for each month, based on years 2003 - 2015 as opposed to two monthly bins of 15 or 16 days each.

As of today, if 2016 follows a path of losses 10% greater average, on September 10th the SIE would be  3,383,175 Km², which would be just over 100K above 2012 for that date.

The next 5-6 weeks are critical for any number of reasons.  As memory serves me, peak insolation covers a 6-8 week window about the summer solstice.  Therefore the  less ice in late May means that there is more open water to absorb the solar heat.

It will  be  interesting to see if SIE drops below 11M Km² by the 20th of May.  If that were to occur and there is significant meltponding in May, it would almost certainly set the stage for a record breaking year.

I'll try to keep this chart updated regularly for the next few weeks, then I'm off to Italy and Croatia for a month.  While  travelling, I'll be forced to clumsily use my wife's tablet to access the internet.

[jdallen]

Hey OL, good to hear from you. Hope the events settle down.

My assessment is almost identical, where I'm figuring we have upwards of 75% probability of beating 2007/2011 and about 25% of beating 2012.  To hit "ice free" I think we'd need another black swan event like 2012. But, That we can consider it in play is a profound enough fact by itself. It's almost 15 years sooner than I thought it possible.

For us to stay above 2007/2011 would take a shift in weather against trend as extreme as it was in favor of melting in 2012.

I have no doubt this will be an extraordinary year.

[DavidR]

My assessment is almost identical, where I'm figuring we have upwards of 75% probability of beating 2007/2011 and about 25% of beating 2012.  To hit "ice free" I think we'd need another black swan event like 2012. But, That we can consider it in play is a profound enough fact by itself.

It's almost 15 years sooner than I thought it possible.

With Arctic Sea temperatures 2 degC above the previous record for Jan -  Mar, 80N+ sea temperatures 3 degC above the  previous record  and global sea temperatures 0.4 degC above the previous record, I an definitely  expecting a black swan.

[TerryM]

OL

'Tis nice to read your dulcet words again!
 The forthcoming journey should add interest to your retirement rituals.
 
DMI is telling us that the first 115 days of 2016 have all been above their median for north of 80, a unique situation since at least 1958. Apparently we have less ice than ever before on this date. Our orb is warming at a ridiculous rate just as Co2 levels spike to unprecedented heights.
If this year's arctic sea ice does not respond to such adverse conditions, that,in my mind would truly be the unexpected "black swan" event.

BTW A cheap bluetooth keyboard allows my tablet to function as an OK laptop substitute.

Terry

[Espen]

IJIS:

12,633,672 km²（April 24, 2016）

[Lord M Vader]

Seems almost certain now that we will blow below 12,5 mn km² before May 1.

[Juan C. García]

IJIS:

12,633,672 km²（April 24, 2016）

On the last week (from April 17 to April 24) it has been decreasing at a average rate of 62,500 km2/day. The average decrease on May 2015 is 59,032 km2/day.

Seems that it is already melting at a speed superior to May 2015. Will it keep it? A little more melting speed, with the forecast of warm temperatures this week?

[jdallen]

IJIS:

12,633,672 km²（April 24, 2016）

On the last week (from April 17 to April 24) it has been decreasing at a average rate of 62,500 km2/day. The average decrease on May 2015 is 59,032 km2/day.

Seems that it is already melting at a speed superior to May 2015. Will it keep it? A little more melting speed, with the forecast of warm temperatures this week?

Warm temps will help, but more important I think will be sunlight from clear skies and mixing from movement.  What higher temps do is put a lid on the heat either already in, or entering the sea water.

[Espen]

IJIS:

12,595,818 km²（April 25, 2016）

[abbottisgone]

So, we can say the arctic is melting about three weeks ahead of schedule?

[DoomInTheUK]

Three weeks seems about right to me....it's that extra three weeks of warming on dark waters, lapping up against some ropey looking ice that I think will keep that graph looking damned scary.

I know it's all down to the weather, but it's looking ever more likely that other factors will outweigh even a good pattern of cooling. I think we need a fairly drastic cold summer to help the ice this year.

[Espen]

IJIS:

12,570,405 km²（April 26, 2016）

[lanevn]

Not so fast already

[magnamentis]

wait for tomorrows numbers  (that will show today's values)

[DoomInTheUK]

I'm thinking long term - will we break below 11 by the end of May? 

[magnamentis]

we did that last year, at least it looks like it in the graph few posts above, hence as long as we're that much below 2015 one has to assume yes, while 1-2 weeks of cooler and/or cloudy weather could change that, hard to predict IMO, let's see. i vote for yes.

[DoomInTheUK]

If we follow last years melt, we might even drop below 10.5.

I've given up on predictions though - apart from the eternal "The Arctic never does what you think it will". That one always seems to come true.

[Jim Pettit]

I'm thinking long term - will we break below 11 by the end of May? 

You can practically place money on it. Following the trajectory of 2007 or 2013 would leave 2016 above 11 million by 5/31; a repeat of the melt trajectories from any other year in the past decade would leave 2016 with between 10 million and 11 million.

[Espen]

IJIS:

12,498,998 km²（April 27, 2016）

[Sourabh]

All hell is going to break lose if things continue down this path. We broke the record again. Earliest year SIE going below 12.5

Another thing I noticed is that this is the first year in almost all years when avg. temperature on DMI is never went below average even for a day. The red line is above green line since the beginning of the year. Even 2012 went below average for few days. I do not know how important this is, but this definitely seems to be an anomaly.

[jdallen]

All hell is going to break lose if things continue down this path. We broke the record again. Earliest year SIE going below 12.5

Another thing I noticed is that this is the first year in almost all years when avg. temperature on DMI is never went below average even for a day. The red line is above green line since the beginning of the year. Even 2012 went below average for few days. I do not know how important this is, but this definitely seems to be an anomaly.

Yup, it will, yes it is, and yes it is.

I was afraid we'd pass 12.5 today, and it is a milestone and it definite portends great trouble.  We have at least a week of this weather to go and are only just starting to feel it's effects.  We will have above zero weather in the Beaufort for a large chunk of the week.  IN APRIL.

Nope, it's not the same Arctic we were looking at 10 years ago.  May not even be the same we were looking at 5 ago...

[TerryM]

Sourabh
North of 80 has been above normal for the last 118 days (all of 2016), & this is unique since 1958 according to DMI. Somehow I can't believe that this is a good omen for things to come.
Terry

[abbottisgone]

those temperatures above average for the first time ever since the start of the year can't be good: I would hope the freshwater blob off Greenland doesn't continue it's trend as if a corroboration of certain hard bitten facts to come...

(If so we may see markets turn on a dime and panic creep in!!)

[pikaia]

For the last three years the red line has dipped below the green line around day 150, when the temperature gets close to melting point. This has stalled the melting in the high Arctic before it has begun. It will be interesting to see if it is repeated this year, in a month from now.

[BornFromTheVoid]

2016 is currently 17 days ahead of 2012 melt wise. 2012 didn't get below 12.5m until May 14th.

[abbottisgone]

2016 is currently 17 days ahead of 2012 melt wise. 2012 didn't get below 12.5m until May 14th.

2012 was very curious...

[DavidR]

IJIS has lost 7.15% of its value this month so far. The only times previously it  has lost this percentage have been when it started with at least an additional 600K km^2 on April 1st.  Typically years with low starting values have low loss rates.

It has also been the fifth fastest loss from 13M to 12.5M and on this criteria it is typically years that get to 13M late that have the fastest declines. All in all the rates are exceptional and catastrophic.

I can't help thinking of the Atlantic cod. Catches were fine until they were banned because the fisheries discovered that there were no mature cod left.  Unfortunately we can't just ban fossil fuel emissions.

[oren]

2016 is currently 17 days ahead of 2012 melt wise. 2012 didn't get below 12.5m until May 14th.

2012 was very curious...

2012 is not such a good comparison. It came on from very high in March to extremely low in August, and was therefore extremely atypical in loss rates throughout the season, and at this date was behind normal.
Most of the difference in extent from 2012 at this date is Bering, where we currently have about 500k less ice than 2012.
Other areas of difference were Barents and Greenland seas.

Anyhow looking at the IJIS chart I'd say that 2016 is leading by about 1.5 weeks, up from its recent lead of 1 week. Normally differences between years should be growing smaller at around this period, but it seems 2016 is not normal...

[magnamentis]

Not so fast already

  http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,230.msg74930.html#msg74930

[Buddy]

I think the key to this years melt is the Beaufort Sea.  It's off to a bad start (a lot of early break up and melting).....and if that continues we could be staring at a "significant new low" in the Arctic ice sheet come September.

Just HOW significant depends on the number and size of storms....but we are moving towards the end of ice in September WITHIN the next 5 years.

This year is just one more year on that journey.  Atlantic side is "set up" for a high melt year already.  The northern/central Russian coast has been blasted early with much warmer temps....and over the past few weeks, the Beaufort has been falling apart, and northwestern Canada and Alaska have been warming up for the onslaught.

Really is a "bad setup" for the ice.  We had the first "thrust down" in ice in 2007.  Then 2012 blew that away.  And now...I'm afraid we are ready for round 3.  If Beaufort continues to get chewed up and spit out....this melt could be "epic".  The hard prep work has been done....now it depends on weather.

 

[Jim Pettit]

As has been noted, IJIS extent has dropped below 12.5 million km2, the earliest ever. By way of comparison, here are the first dates for the last decade on which extent was below 12.5 million, along with the same numbers for the last few decades:

2016: April 27
2015: May 6
2014: May 8
2013: May 11-14 (data missing)
2012: May 14
2011: May 8
2010: May 11
2009: May 18
2008: May 14
2007: May 9
2006: May 2

2010-2015 average: May 10
2000-2009 average: May 14
1990-1999 average: May 22
1980-1989 average: June 2

[pauldry600]

2006 was close to this year for 12.5m only.

The ice seems so thin up there that on any reasonable warm period of two or 3 days from here on in we could see losses of near 100k in a day.

Im looking at 2m as a closing figure though that as a pie in the sky guess. Though in Summer the last couple of years melt seems to slow a bit. Why is this?

The worlds weather is so crazy now that some year the extent may even decline somewhat during Winter as it did for a day at the end of December 2015.

[Espen]

IJIS:

12,413,834 km²（April 28, 2016）

[mmghosh]

That's a pretty amazing fall in 2 days.  Have there ever been century breaks in April?

[jdallen]

... Have there ever been century breaks in April?

Not that I recall, but we might be about to change that.

[Magma.]

That's a pretty amazing fall in 2 days.  Have there ever been century breaks in April?

There have been 18 of them since April 1, 2003. The most extreme occurrence was from April 9 to April 14, 2004:

154,512
129,382
127,666
  70,453
100,826