Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: IJIS  (Read 2116750 times)

Espen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3278
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 218
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: IJIS
« Reply #2100 on: May 04, 2016, 05:58:14 AM »
IJIS:

12,144,447 km2(May 3, 2016)
Have a ice day!

JMP

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 109
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 20
  • Likes Given: 60
Re: IJIS
« Reply #2101 on: May 04, 2016, 06:44:27 AM »


If I'm not mistaken, this is essentially what Hansen has predicted - short-term global cooling as a result of global warming, thanks to melting Greenland. Predictions Implicit in “Ice Melt” Paper and Global Implications:

Yes, but localized, and primarily a driver of extreme weather.  Elsewhere, things will still be a hot house.
Yes.  Not global.  edit   And, the cooling of the Southern ocean's surface is not so helpful as it might appear since "Antarctic freshwater-induced regional surface cooling yields amplifying feedbacks that melt ice shelves, which is the principal route to increased Antarctic ice sheet mass loss."   (sorry for the tangent - thought it was important to point that out)
I think what Hansen's study misses is what's implicit if the anomalies he projects are realized. The 2080-2100 image is more dramatic and, IMO, the departures it shows would be sufficient to allow ice sheets to begin regrowing across NRN Europe and NRN North America (which is not mentioned in his papers).

Perhaps the ensuing albedo feedback this causes in summer escalates/is amplified by +GHG and triggers runaway cooling as more and more solar energy is reflected at latitudes where insolation is much greater than in the Arctic? Additional water vapor could also allow much deeper wintertime snows in polar regions, also buffering against melt (and aiding freshwater input into oceanic current shutdown). This may explain why there are seemingly so few or very brief instances of an open Arctic Ocean in recent history; it would seem another series of feedbacks we do not yet fully understand kicks in once that happens.
Please show why you think that.  What research might lead you to disregard Hansen's work?
   ( probably needs moved to another thread )

(Neven - Please, move this to a more appropriate place?   Thank You)

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5835
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1983
  • Likes Given: 1737
Re: IJIS
« Reply #2102 on: May 04, 2016, 07:28:44 AM »
While this belongs to another thread, just wanted to throw in that Heinrich/Bond events are basically the same negative feedback - as the melting glaciers/ice sheets temporarily overwhelm the warming climate. But this is feedback of the worst sort, that increases volatility rather than subduing it.

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3178
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 391
  • Likes Given: 198
Re: IJIS
« Reply #2103 on: May 04, 2016, 07:52:08 AM »
I think what Hansen's study misses is what's implicit if the anomalies he projects are realized. The 2080-2100 image is more dramatic and, IMO, the departures it shows would be sufficient to allow ice sheets to begin regrowing across NRN Europe and NRN North America (which is not mentioned in his papers).
<snippage>
Ice sheets? Nonsense. That's a HUGE stretch.  Actually it's not a stretch; energetically, its unreachable.  The forcing from CO2 is already too high, the increased albedo from open arctic water will provide far and away additional capture heat to render it impossible.  Very functionally, the ice sheets grew in part because there was an Arctic ice pack to aid in bouncing heat back out of the hemisphere.  I think you are absurdly overestimating the effect of the feedback from Greenland melt.
This space for Rent.

JMP

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 109
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 20
  • Likes Given: 60
Re: IJIS
« Reply #2104 on: May 04, 2016, 08:32:59 AM »
What you don't know about could be anything.

Obviously, questioning a lifetime of diligent work - with nothing to substantiate those ideas as more than fantasy.  That is disregarding the work. 

And too. Twisting the data (you used the term tweaking) in this case IS unreasonable, spurious, nonsense.  The exact sort of disinformation-duck that looks, walks, quacks, like a troll.   



abbottisgone

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 297
  • "...I'm a rock'n'roll star,...... YES I ARE!!!!!!"
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: IJIS
« Reply #2105 on: May 04, 2016, 10:11:51 AM »
Quote
When (not if) the day comes when melting Arctic ice no longer removes heat from the Northern Hemisphere in August

Definitely my #1 concern.  And....as expressed by some of the scientists on this site, it takes a lot more energy to melt ice...than it does to warm water or atmosphere.  So when the ice is gone....seems like things would have to speed up :o.
I want to get off this train: imagine 7 billion people saying that!

Why does it take more energy to melt ice than heat water or the atmosphere btw?
..
But I left school and grew my hair
They didn't understand
They wanted me to be respected as
A doctor or a lawyer man
But I had other plans..........

DoomInTheUK

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 221
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: IJIS
« Reply #2106 on: May 04, 2016, 10:34:29 AM »
abbotisgone - It's not actually true that it takes more energy to melt ice than to warm water, it's just the effect is so much more evident on water than ice.
The energy required to phase change the water molecules from a solid to a liquid is surprisingly large (and this energy is released when the water changes back to ice). The same amount of energy to melt ice into water will heat water from 0C to 80C.

What happens when the ice is gone and this energy gets into the atmosphere is anyone's guess....just as long as that guess includes some pretty nasty consequences.

Meirion

  • New ice
  • Posts: 59
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: IJIS
« Reply #2107 on: May 04, 2016, 10:50:37 AM »
A plea - one of the great things about this thread has been that you can quickly check back through Espen's excellent daily graphs with only a few comments between them. That and the DMI 80º & regional graphs are the basic kit of parts to know what's going on in Arctic sea ice. Now as the temperatures rise it is flooded with spurious posts which belong in other threads (or nowhere). Can we get back to this being an IJIS thread.

Alright I'm grumpy!

Zeug Gezeugt

  • New ice
  • Posts: 76
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 9
  • Likes Given: 41
Re: IJIS
« Reply #2108 on: May 04, 2016, 11:20:52 AM »
Can we get back to this being an IJIS thread.

Concur

DavidR

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 732
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 32
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: IJIS
« Reply #2109 on: May 04, 2016, 01:51:42 PM »
I  have created a thread for discussions on Hansens predictions. Please transfer any  comments to that  thread. Thank you! Please do  not respond to  any related posts on this thread.

If you  wish to  respond to a post on this thread that relates to Hansens predictions,  select "quote" here, "cut" the entire contents, and "paste"  it  into  a reply on the other thread.  Please do not post your reply here. Cheers!!
« Last Edit: May 04, 2016, 02:09:07 PM by DavidR »
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3178
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 391
  • Likes Given: 198
Re: IJIS
« Reply #2110 on: May 05, 2016, 12:37:32 AM »
IJIS:

12,144,447 km2(May 3, 2016)

Average loss from this point to minimum for 2007-2015 is about 8.44 million KM2.

At this level, the weather will have to push back pretty hard to prevent this year's melt from passing 2007 and 2011.  It will take very little of a nudge (about 550,000 past average) for it to pass 2012.
This space for Rent.

abbottisgone

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 297
  • "...I'm a rock'n'roll star,...... YES I ARE!!!!!!"
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: IJIS
« Reply #2111 on: May 05, 2016, 03:51:39 AM »
abbotisgone - It's not actually true that it takes more energy to melt ice than to warm water, it's just the effect is so much more evident on water than ice.
The energy required to phase change the water molecules from a solid to a liquid is surprisingly large (and this energy is released when the water changes back to ice). The same amount of energy to melt ice into water will heat water from 0C to 80C.

What happens when the ice is gone and this energy gets into the atmosphere is anyone's guess....just as long as that guess includes some pretty nasty consequences.
We all like numbers: thanks mate!

Government departments around the world fear for the multi-year ice it would unfortunately seem.... 
..
But I left school and grew my hair
They didn't understand
They wanted me to be respected as
A doctor or a lawyer man
But I had other plans..........

abbottisgone

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 297
  • "...I'm a rock'n'roll star,...... YES I ARE!!!!!!"
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: IJIS
« Reply #2112 on: May 05, 2016, 03:56:19 AM »
While this belongs to another thread, just wanted to throw in that Heinrich/Bond events are basically the same negative feedback - as the melting glaciers/ice sheets temporarily overwhelm the warming climate. But this is feedback of the worst sort, that increases volatility rather than subduing it.
Yes, it's the very definition of tending towards disorder!
..
But I left school and grew my hair
They didn't understand
They wanted me to be respected as
A doctor or a lawyer man
But I had other plans..........

DavidR

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 732
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 32
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: IJIS
« Reply #2113 on: May 05, 2016, 06:28:29 AM »
Just Repeating myself here

I  have created a thread for discussions on Hansens predictions. Please transfer any  comments to that  thread. Thank you! Please do  not respond to  any related posts on this thread.

If you  wish to  respond to a post on this thread that relates to Hansens predictions,  select "quote" here, "cut" the entire contents, and "paste"  it  into  a reply on the other thread.  Please do not post your reply here. Cheers!!
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

Espen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3278
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 218
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: IJIS
« Reply #2114 on: May 05, 2016, 07:02:58 AM »
IJIS:

12,081,393 km2(May 4, 2016)
Have a ice day!

abbottisgone

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 297
  • "...I'm a rock'n'roll star,...... YES I ARE!!!!!!"
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: IJIS
« Reply #2115 on: May 05, 2016, 07:53:09 AM »
IJIS:

12,081,393 km2(May 4, 2016)
If we were to imagine where the 2010s average were to be then perhaps this slowing down of the melt doesn't look too out of place about now...
..
But I left school and grew my hair
They didn't understand
They wanted me to be respected as
A doctor or a lawyer man
But I had other plans..........

BornFromTheVoid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1054
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 156
  • Likes Given: 71
Re: IJIS
« Reply #2116 on: May 05, 2016, 08:56:59 AM »
Currently over 500k below last year, and 816k below 2012.

We could stop melting completely and remain lowest on record until the 11th
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

bbr2314

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1817
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 166
  • Likes Given: 53
Re: IJIS
« Reply #2117 on: May 05, 2016, 09:23:55 AM »
DMI shows large losses beginning on the Atlantic side over next few days. This ice was spread out from the main pack and has largely been reduced to slush over past few weeks, and I imagine it will go fairly quickly.

Combined with losses in Bering/Okhotsk/Beaufort/Baffin/Labrador, we could see a few century days over the next week, IMO.

ocean.dmi.dk/anim/index.uk.php

abbottisgone

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 297
  • "...I'm a rock'n'roll star,...... YES I ARE!!!!!!"
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: IJIS
« Reply #2118 on: May 05, 2016, 09:32:54 AM »
Currently over 500k below last year, and 816k below 2012.

We could stop melting completely and remain lowest on record until the 11th
..yeh, I follow what you are saying.

I'm simply trying to test the real time results with a conservative point of view. For example, 2012 can be thought of as a statistical anomaly. Likewise so can 2015 especially given the years before it.

Then we have to add in the existence of el nino ...
..
But I left school and grew my hair
They didn't understand
They wanted me to be respected as
A doctor or a lawyer man
But I had other plans..........

BornFromTheVoid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1054
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 156
  • Likes Given: 71
Re: IJIS
« Reply #2119 on: May 05, 2016, 01:47:55 PM »
Currently over 500k below last year, and 816k below 2012.

We could stop melting completely and remain lowest on record until the 11th
..yeh, I follow what you are saying.

I'm simply trying to test the real time results with a conservative point of view. For example, 2012 can be thought of as a statistical anomaly. Likewise so can 2015 especially given the years before it.

Then we have to add in the existence of el nino ...

My comments weren't a response to yours or tying to contradict you. I was just posting some stuff that seems interesting.

As for slowing down, it certainly has, but I suppose it's relative. Now we did have a 5 day average loss of 75k/day from the 26th to the 1st, and the latest 5 day average is 53k/day. However,  the average daily loss from 2003 to 2015 over the last 5 days is about 48k/day, so we're still losing ice at a fast rate, despite lots of variability in the day to day melt.
« Last Edit: May 05, 2016, 03:09:10 PM by BornFromTheVoid »
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

DavidR

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 732
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 32
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: IJIS
« Reply #2120 on: May 05, 2016, 02:47:53 PM »
Currently over 500k below last year, and 816k below 2012.

We could stop melting completely and remain lowest on record until the 11th
From 2003  there are only about  5 days with gains in May and only about 15 with losses less than 10K. This is a time of consistent losses. So  the idea of even five days of minimal growth is unlikely. But as Neven says this is the Arctic and anything is possible in the short term.
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

OldLeatherneck

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 554
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: IJIS
« Reply #2121 on: May 06, 2016, 01:46:13 AM »
Let's not spend too much time discussing the losses of one or two individual days. When you look at the losses of the past four days, there were two days well above average and two days well below average for this time of year.  The end result is an average loss of just more than 53K Km2.  The average loss during the first ten days of may is just over 52K Km2.  Therefore, nothing spectacular yet, although I expect some larger than average losses within the next week.

Below is the type of losses that have previously occurred in May.

"Share Your Knowledge.  It's a Way to Achieve Immortality."  ......the Dalai Lama

magnamentis

  • Guest
Re: IJIS
« Reply #2122 on: May 06, 2016, 01:53:07 AM »
what is spectacular is the level on which these average losses happen. i mean the less ice there is to start with (the more retreaded up north it is) the more out of the ordinary even an average loss has to be seen IMO

anotheramethyst

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 141
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: IJIS
« Reply #2123 on: May 06, 2016, 05:57:25 AM »
what is spectacular is the level on which these average losses happen. i mean the less ice there is to start with (the more retreaded up north it is) the more out of the ordinary even an average loss has to be seen IMO

I agree.  I'm no expert, but I would expect this year's rate of loss to be below average because presumably there is less easy ice there to melt. 

Espen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3278
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 218
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: IJIS
« Reply #2124 on: May 06, 2016, 06:04:14 AM »
IJIS:

12,039,085 km2(May 5, 2016)
Have a ice day!

DavidR

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 732
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 32
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: IJIS
« Reply #2125 on: May 06, 2016, 06:54:22 AM »
what is spectacular is the level on which these average losses happen. i mean the less ice there is to start with (the more retreaded up north it is) the more out of the ordinary even an average loss has to be seen IMO

I agree.  I'm no expert, but I would expect this year's rate of loss to be below average because presumably there is less easy ice there to melt.
April's loss on IJIS was the sixth largest since 2003 and the 5th largest as a percentage of the starting extent. As a percentage it was the largest variation from the trend based on initial starting extent.
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

abbottisgone

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 297
  • "...I'm a rock'n'roll star,...... YES I ARE!!!!!!"
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: IJIS
« Reply #2126 on: May 06, 2016, 08:53:12 AM »
go numbers  ;)
..
But I left school and grew my hair
They didn't understand
They wanted me to be respected as
A doctor or a lawyer man
But I had other plans..........

Magma.

  • New ice
  • Posts: 23
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: IJIS
« Reply #2127 on: May 07, 2016, 05:51:36 AM »
Date JAXA/IJIS ice extent dropped below 12,000,000 km2

1980s average Jun 14
1990s average Jun 04
2000s average May 24

2003 May 27
2004 May 15
2005 May 24
2006 May 13
2007 May 21
2008 May 20
2009 May 25
2010 May 19
2011 May 17
2012 May 21
2013 May 23
2014 May 17
2015 May 12
2016 May 06

Espen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3278
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 218
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: IJIS
« Reply #2128 on: May 07, 2016, 06:52:36 AM »
IJIS:

11,986,358 km2(May 6, 2016)
Have a ice day!

Meirion

  • New ice
  • Posts: 59
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: IJIS
« Reply #2129 on: May 07, 2016, 12:05:07 PM »
Looking at CCI forecast for next week (big losses in Beaufort & Chukchi (& Okhotsk & Hudson Bay)) would expect it to be below 11.5 in a week's time (May 13 figure).

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3379
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 52
  • Likes Given: 34
Re: IJIS
« Reply #2130 on: May 07, 2016, 02:16:41 PM »
Could be.  Certainly on pace for 10.3 - 10.7 by end of May.

June and July are when the "steepness" of the trend are at the highest.....and the warm winter, combined with the still warm spring certainly have the ice "prepared" for a nasty fall (depending on wind, currents, and storms in June - August.

FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Espen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3278
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 218
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: IJIS
« Reply #2131 on: May 07, 2016, 02:39:17 PM »
Comparing 2016 to 2007 and 2012, 2016 looks pretty ambitious:
Have a ice day!

Espen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3278
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 218
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: IJIS
« Reply #2132 on: May 07, 2016, 02:47:28 PM »
Could be.  Certainly on pace for 10.3 - 10.7 by end of May.

June and July are when the "steepness" of the trend are at the highest.....and the warm winter, combined with the still warm spring certainly have the ice "prepared" for a nasty fall (depending on wind, currents, and storms in June - August.

10.0 or less by the end of May is not impossible, it only needs an average daily drop of 40,000 km2?

Just like:
« Last Edit: May 07, 2016, 02:55:12 PM by Espen »
Have a ice day!

Jim Pettit

  • Global Moderator
  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1175
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: IJIS
« Reply #2133 on: May 07, 2016, 03:12:22 PM »
Could be.  Certainly on pace for 10.3 - 10.7 by end of May.

June and July are when the "steepness" of the trend are at the highest.....and the warm winter, combined with the still warm spring certainly have the ice "prepared" for a nasty fall (depending on wind, currents, and storms in June - August.

10.0 or less by the end of May is not impossible, it only needs an average daily drop of 40,000 km2?

Well, to fall below 10.0 by the end of May would take about 80k per day (79,455. to be precise). At any rate, while it's not impossible, iit would be extraordinary. Were the rest of the month to follow the trajectory of any other year on record, 2016 would still end up several hundred thousand square miles above 10 million. My guess is that we're still about five weeks away from falling below that mark...meaning that 2016 should see that around the second week of June.

Anyway, to show how unusual 2016 has been:


Espen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3278
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 218
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: IJIS
« Reply #2134 on: May 07, 2016, 03:21:51 PM »
 :-[
Could be.  Certainly on pace for 10.3 - 10.7 by end of May.

June and July are when the "steepness" of the trend are at the highest.....and the warm winter, combined with the still warm spring certainly have the ice "prepared" for a nasty fall (depending on wind, currents, and storms in June - August.

10.0 or less by the end of May is not impossible, it only needs an average daily drop of 40,000 km2?

Well, to fall below 10.0 by the end of May would take about 80k per day (79,455. to be precise). At any rate, while it's not impossible, iit would be extraordinary. Were the rest of the month to follow the trajectory of any other year on record, 2016 would still end up several hundred thousand square miles above 10 million. My guess is that we're still about five weeks away from falling below that mark...meaning that 2016 should see that around the second week of June.

Anyway, to show how unusual 2016 has been:



Yes of course! :-[
Have a ice day!

abbottisgone

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 297
  • "...I'm a rock'n'roll star,...... YES I ARE!!!!!!"
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: IJIS
« Reply #2135 on: May 07, 2016, 04:25:15 PM »
Could be.  Certainly on pace for 10.3 - 10.7 by end of May.

June and July are when the "steepness" of the trend are at the highest.....and the warm winter, combined with the still warm spring certainly have the ice "prepared" for a nasty fall (depending on wind, currents, and storms in June - August.
June, as espens graph bellow your comment seems to show, is the month!
..
But I left school and grew my hair
They didn't understand
They wanted me to be respected as
A doctor or a lawyer man
But I had other plans..........

abbottisgone

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 297
  • "...I'm a rock'n'roll star,...... YES I ARE!!!!!!"
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: IJIS
« Reply #2136 on: May 07, 2016, 04:27:07 PM »
Could be.  Certainly on pace for 10.3 - 10.7 by end of May.

June and July are when the "steepness" of the trend are at the highest.....and the warm winter, combined with the still warm spring certainly have the ice "prepared" for a nasty fall (depending on wind, currents, and storms in June - August.

10.0 or less by the end of May is not impossible, it only needs an average daily drop of 40,000 km2?

Well, to fall below 10.0 by the end of May would take about 80k per day (79,455. to be precise). At any rate, while it's not impossible, iit would be extraordinary. Were the rest of the month to follow the trajectory of any other year on record, 2016 would still end up several hundred thousand square miles above 10 million. My guess is that we're still about five weeks away from falling below that mark...meaning that 2016 should see that around the second week of June.

Anyway, to show how unusual 2016 has been:


You haven't got these graphs in a two, or even three !!?!!..., standard deviation format have you?
..
But I left school and grew my hair
They didn't understand
They wanted me to be respected as
A doctor or a lawyer man
But I had other plans..........

abbottisgone

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 297
  • "...I'm a rock'n'roll star,...... YES I ARE!!!!!!"
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: IJIS
« Reply #2137 on: May 07, 2016, 04:31:35 PM »
Not sure where I got this but,... it's a time series of ice extent measured in standard deviations!

Pretty cool but as it's average is from a pre 1979 era I would say it wouldn't capture the public attention,... Which is what is needed as the people lead and governments follow-according to mr Schwartz and ham and egg and burger  ;D  :o :o :o   8)
..
But I left school and grew my hair
They didn't understand
They wanted me to be respected as
A doctor or a lawyer man
But I had other plans..........

DavidR

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 732
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 32
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: IJIS
« Reply #2138 on: May 07, 2016, 05:04:43 PM »
Historically IJIS declines from now to  Jun 1st  give four years above the old record of 10.84. Four years are between 10.25 and 10.5 and the other 5 years are in between.  With a trend to larger declines in May, 10.1 and 11.1 appear equally likely (or unlikely). 
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

Jim Pettit

  • Global Moderator
  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1175
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: IJIS
« Reply #2139 on: May 07, 2016, 08:35:16 PM »
You haven't got these graphs in a two, or even three !!?!!..., standard deviation format have you?

How about with just one and two?


Espen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3278
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 218
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: IJIS
« Reply #2140 on: May 08, 2016, 05:41:55 AM »
IJIS:

11,912,579 km2(May 7, 2016)
Have a ice day!

abbottisgone

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 297
  • "...I'm a rock'n'roll star,...... YES I ARE!!!!!!"
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: IJIS
« Reply #2141 on: May 08, 2016, 10:24:35 AM »
You haven't got these graphs in a two, or even three !!?!!..., standard deviation format have you?

How about with just one and two?


nice, I've just posted it around a little bit!

 ;)
..
But I left school and grew my hair
They didn't understand
They wanted me to be respected as
A doctor or a lawyer man
But I had other plans..........

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3379
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 52
  • Likes Given: 34
Re: IJIS
« Reply #2142 on: May 08, 2016, 11:40:52 AM »
This is where it may start to get interesting.....and where we may get a little more "seperation" from the pack.  The fundamentals are in place to do that:

1) we've had a record setting warm 4 months in Alaska.....that has NOT been good for the ice in the Beaufort
2) we have continued warmth in the Arctic.....running about 2.5 - 4.0 C above normal
3) we have an Atlantic side that continues to show weakness
4) we have a Beaufort that is breaking up in chunks.....no doubt in part because of the heat indicated by #1above

This is where the ice may start to slowly show more seperation from prior years....setting itself up for its summer plunge to record lows.... :-[
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Espen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3278
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 218
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: IJIS
« Reply #2143 on: May 09, 2016, 05:22:41 AM »
IJIS:

11,782,166 km2(May 8, 2016)
Have a ice day!

abbottisgone

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 297
  • "...I'm a rock'n'roll star,...... YES I ARE!!!!!!"
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: IJIS
« Reply #2144 on: May 09, 2016, 05:25:49 AM »
IJIS:

11,782,166 km2(May 8, 2016)
Um,  ???
..
But I left school and grew my hair
They didn't understand
They wanted me to be respected as
A doctor or a lawyer man
But I had other plans..........

werther

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 747
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 31
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: IJIS
« Reply #2145 on: May 09, 2016, 05:46:41 AM »
Down 130K. Freefall in Bering and Okhotsk Seas. Labrador Sea giving in. Etc.

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1933
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 950
  • Likes Given: 636
Re: IJIS
« Reply #2146 on: May 09, 2016, 05:48:22 AM »
IJIS:

11,782,166 km2(May 8, 2016)

11,912,579 km2(May 7, 2016) - 11,782,166km2(May 8, 2016) = 130,413 km2 Century break!!!
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Magma.

  • New ice
  • Posts: 23
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: IJIS
« Reply #2147 on: May 09, 2016, 06:23:46 AM »
IJIS:

11,782,166 km2(May 8, 2016)

Largest one-day drops of JAXA/IJIS extent in spring melting season, start to current calendar date (2003-2016)

1. 154,512 April 10, 2004
2. 132,772 April 25, 2013
3. 130,413 May 8, 2016
4. 129,382 April 11, 2004
5. 127,666 April 12, 2004

If not due to a sensor or processing glitch, the April 10 to April 14 2004 ice extent drop must have been a remarkable event, losing 583,000 km2 in five days. I assume that it was a large-scale wind and/or current ice compaction event rather than melting.

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3178
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 391
  • Likes Given: 198
Re: IJIS
« Reply #2148 on: May 09, 2016, 06:25:17 AM »
Down 130K. Freefall in Bering and Okhotsk Seas. Labrador Sea giving in. Etc.
Grab your hats, hang on to your seats, we're about to take a ride.
This space for Rent.

epiphyte

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 384
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 22
  • Likes Given: 18
Re: IJIS
« Reply #2149 on: May 09, 2016, 07:03:02 AM »
I just looked all around the periphery on EOSDIS.

To my eyes, all of this loss is melting.

The land to the south of those few areas that aren't yet melting (ESS, Laptev & Kara) appears to be thawing out quickly. These are the only remaining areas which are not yet swirling down the metaphorical plughole as a result of the Beaufort/NA/Greenland crackup. They are also mostly 1st or 2nd year ice in locations which have all melted out completely in four years out of the past five.

Toto, I have a feeling we are not in Kansas anymore.