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abbottisgone

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2150 on: May 09, 2016, 07:04:20 AM »
Down 130K. Freefall in Bering and Okhotsk Seas. Labrador Sea giving in. Etc.
Grab your hats, hang on to your seats, we're about to take a ride.
...don't tell the markets that: quick, hide all the graphs!
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epiphyte

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2151 on: May 09, 2016, 08:12:56 AM »
Down 130K. Freefall in Bering and Okhotsk Seas. Labrador Sea giving in. Etc.
Grab your hats, hang on to your seats, we're about to take a ride.
...don't tell the markets that: quick, hide all the graphs!
Heck, I'm as apprehensive as anyone as to what this bodes for the future... But I also have three kids to get through college - so if there's an obvious way to make money out of this - I'm all ears...

jdallen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2152 on: May 09, 2016, 08:24:55 AM »
Down 130K. Freefall in Bering and Okhotsk Seas. Labrador Sea giving in. Etc.
Grab your hats, hang on to your seats, we're about to take a ride.
...don't tell the markets that: quick, hide all the graphs!
Heck, I'm as apprehensive as anyone as to what this bodes for the future... But I also have three kids to get through college - so if there's an obvious way to make money out of this - I'm all ears...
It's a total crap shoot, epiphyte.  But, I'd say, bet on pretty much everyone being a loser.
This space for Rent.

abbottisgone

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2153 on: May 09, 2016, 08:45:31 AM »
Down 130K. Freefall in Bering and Okhotsk Seas. Labrador Sea giving in. Etc.
Grab your hats, hang on to your seats, we're about to take a ride.
...don't tell the markets that: quick, hide all the graphs!
Heck, I'm as apprehensive as anyone as to what this bodes for the future... But I also have three kids to get through college - so if there's an obvious way to make money out of this - I'm all ears...
It's a total crap shoot, epiphyte.  But, I'd say, bet on pretty much everyone being a loser.
Ha, unless you can take on TESLA cars then pretty much.

..who knows: the basic story is that resource bottlenecks is what should be the basic problem heading into a world truly threatened.

More basic than that is the word 'PANIC' and you would have thought governments would be a bit more averse to it that they appear to be.

Seriously, I'm not altogether sure I'm even watching a bad version of reality tv anymore...

 :o :o :o :o :o

[..where is that 'gulp' emoticon when you need it?]
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Okono

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2154 on: May 09, 2016, 08:50:34 AM »
I don't have much faith in TSLA cars or renewable energy because we never really solved the battery problems (http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2012/08/battery-performance-deficit-disorder/).  This is not just an engineering issue: first, we require a better understanding of physics in an era when it takes an LHC just to confirm a probable truth, and then we need the engineering to make it practical.

We just rubber insulated the battery problems by choosing volatile chemistries and using enormous government subsidies.  Solar energy and pumped water storage are the technologies that will scale best, but their deployment will take decades in even an ideal scenario, and there are many interesting things that could happen between here and there.  Many many.

Giving investment advice is even stupider than predicting the weather, which means I'm perfect for the job.

My trade on this is to go way long pure-play dry natural gas producers, especially with the reduction in oil drilling and associated gas.  We are going to be desperate to reduce our carbon intensity, but we need a portable fuel for our transportation infrastructure for at least the next decade, to say nothing of grid power.  Everyone likes natural gas, a marketing triumph that will serve the commodity well, especially if it can keep the "fracing" debate over in the oil patch.

You could think of it as a pseudo-Pickens Plan. Radically depressed prices for the last decade, hangover from an ENSO+ winter, impending ENSO+ summer, and impending ENSO- winter make the entry point attractive even from a purely economic perspective.  Eventually we'll realize that this is a stupid plan too, but I fully expect us to grasp at that straw first.

But, we really do need to get back to the science.  We are not going to solve these problems, and the most positive impact we can have is objective, sober analysis of the risks and options.
« Last Edit: May 09, 2016, 09:49:20 AM by Okono »
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oren

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2155 on: May 09, 2016, 12:34:33 PM »
Sorry to interrupt, but please keep the thread on topic.  ???

Anne

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2156 on: May 09, 2016, 12:37:36 PM »
Sorry to interrupt, but please keep the thread on topic.  ???
+1

Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2157 on: May 09, 2016, 12:50:29 PM »
IJIS:

11,782,166 km2(May 8, 2016)

...Which leaves 2016 with 1,026,496 km2 less ice than there was on this same day in 2012...meaning that *if* (and, yes, that's a big 'if') the remainder of this year's melt season were to exactly follow 2012's trajectory, we'd see a minimum extent this year of just 2.15 million km2.

abbottisgone

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2158 on: May 09, 2016, 02:02:16 PM »
IJIS:

11,782,166 km2(May 8, 2016)

...Which leaves 2016 with 1,026,496 km2 less ice than there was on this same day in 2012...meaning that *if* (and, yes, that's a big 'if') the remainder of this year's melt season were to exactly follow 2012's trajectory, we'd see a minimum extent this year of just 2.15 million km2.
That would mean global panic you realise!??!
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DoomInTheUK

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2159 on: May 09, 2016, 02:04:47 PM »
Jim, that "if" is quite big, but it's a good deal smaller than it's been for the last few years.
Every time I look, the ice seems to be in worse shape than I first thought. Maybe I should just stop looking.

Nick_Naylor

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2160 on: May 09, 2016, 02:05:57 PM »
IJIS:

11,782,166 km2(May 8, 2016)

...Which leaves 2016 with 1,026,496 km2 less ice than there was on this same day in 2012...meaning that *if* (and, yes, that's a big 'if') the remainder of this year's melt season were to exactly follow 2012's trajectory, we'd see a minimum extent this year of just 2.15 million km2.
That would mean global panic you realise!??!

2012 was already more shocking than this would be. The globe yawned. We basically would need ice-free now to get their attention.

Buddy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2161 on: May 09, 2016, 02:21:29 PM »
Quote
2012 was already more shocking than this would be. The globe yawned. We basically would need ice-free now to get their attention.

I disagree.  This year is turning into another "step up" in awareness and action.  Much of that action is being done by the PRIVATE SECTOR.  Remember......Congress always LAGS society, not leads.

A significant low this year in the ice will grab a lot of attention....especially if we are on the "same angle of descent" of the 2012 decline (from June and July)......only hundreds of thousands of square kilometers BELOW the 2012 level.

Polls are showing a surge in those wanting to do something about climate change, and those that believe that fossil fuel emissions are causing the warming.....and people like Elon Musk, Bill Nye, as well as many of the climate scientists are "getting more aggressive" in their approach.

I think the "wave is about to break this year" and envelope even more of the deniers......

 
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abbottisgone

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2162 on: May 09, 2016, 02:30:41 PM »
IJIS:

11,782,166 km2(May 8, 2016)

...Which leaves 2016 with 1,026,496 km2 less ice than there was on this same day in 2012...meaning that *if* (and, yes, that's a big 'if') the remainder of this year's melt season were to exactly follow 2012's trajectory, we'd see a minimum extent this year of just 2.15 million km2.
That would mean global panic you realise!??!

2012 was already more shocking than this would be. The globe yawned. We basically would need ice-free now to get their attention.
The globe didn't yawn: THE GLOBE DIDN'T KNOW!

Visual information is processed from bottom to top meaning eventually this will be the forefront of all relevant water cooler gossip!

Outlying statistics are outlying statistics... A habit, however, soon becomes difficult to not stumble over!!
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DavidR

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2163 on: May 09, 2016, 03:02:00 PM »
IJIS:

11,782,166 km2(May 8, 2016)

...Which leaves 2016 with 1,026,496 km2 less ice than there was on this same day in 2012...meaning that *if* (and, yes, that's a big 'if') the remainder of this year's melt season were to exactly follow 2012's trajectory, we'd see a minimum extent this year of just 2.15 million km2.
Of course 2012 saw 1.2 M km^2 more melt than 2007, and if 2016 saw 1.2M km^2 more than 2012, that would be a minumum of 0.95 M. The trend decline in the minimun is about 120,000 km^2 per year so a big decline below the 2012 drop is quite feasible.
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

Lord M Vader

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2164 on: May 09, 2016, 06:00:58 PM »
If such a thing like a virtually ice free Arctic would occur within the next 10 years, you bet that the world would say: well, it seems too late to do something drastic so let's keep on with capitalism without sustainibility as long as we can. You see, the poor CEOs need their bonuses, the shareholders more profit and the economy need more growth!

AmbiValent

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2165 on: May 09, 2016, 06:27:52 PM »
I don't think there will be a panic this year. Not even if there would be no sea ice left in the Arctic Ocean. That's just too abstract and too far away. Panic is a much more emotional reaction, and I think it needs an element of feeling personally threatened.

I don't expect such a panic until the weather patterns are seriously out of whack. And it will make the already bad situation much worse.

Maybe, just maybe, the people in power will wake up to the growing danger before that becomes inevitable. One can dream, can't one?
Bright ice, how can you crack and fail? How can the ice that seemed so mighty suddenly seem so frail?

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2166 on: May 09, 2016, 06:48:10 PM »
Icefree? Gulf of Bothnia is 1 day away!:

Have a ice day!

Michael J

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2167 on: May 09, 2016, 11:43:25 PM »
I don't think there will be a panic this year. Not even if there would be no sea ice left in the Arctic Ocean. That's just too abstract and too far away. Panic is a much more emotional reaction, and I think it needs an element of feeling personally threatened.

I don't expect such a panic until the weather patterns are seriously out of whack. And it will make the already bad situation much worse.

Maybe, just maybe, the people in power will wake up to the growing danger before that becomes inevitable. One can dream, can't one?
I think that pressure will come when the normally conservative voters in the countryside (Farmers, Hunters etc) notice permanent changes.

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2168 on: May 10, 2016, 01:53:45 AM »
I don't think there will be a panic this year. Not even if there would be no sea ice left in the Arctic Ocean. That's just too abstract and too far away. Panic is a much more emotional reaction, and I think it needs an element of feeling personally threatened.

I don't expect such a panic until the weather patterns are seriously out of whack. And it will make the already bad situation much worse.

Maybe, just maybe, the people in power will wake up to the growing danger before that becomes inevitable. One can dream, can't one?
I think that pressure will come when the normally conservative voters in the countryside (Farmers, Hunters etc) notice permanent changes.

and i think it will only happen when a great number of individuals will be confronted with permanent and non-circumvictable events.

storms end, fires end, winters end either cold or warm, what won't end is when the salty sea water will be flooding many enough basements in places where middle class and upper class (money wise i mean) people live.

one such a place will certainly be Miame Beach, while the same can happen if really huge number of people have to dislocate, that would be in countries like Banglasesh.

once the waters will have reached those critical levels it won't go away and come back "more often" it will
be there to stay.

abbottisgone

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2169 on: May 10, 2016, 03:47:31 AM »
IJIS:

11,782,166 km2(May 8, 2016)

...Which leaves 2016 with 1,026,496 km2 less ice than there was on this same day in 2012...meaning that *if* (and, yes, that's a big 'if') the remainder of this year's melt season were to exactly follow 2012's trajectory, we'd see a minimum extent this year of just 2.15 million km2.
Of course 2012 saw 1.2 M km^2 more melt than 2007, and if 2016 saw 1.2M km^2 more than 2012, that would be a minumum of 0.95 M. The trend decline in the minimun is about 120,000 km^2 per year so a big decline below the 2012 drop is quite feasible.
That's a sobering thought: i think I might get that coffee about now!
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6roucho

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2170 on: May 10, 2016, 04:21:05 AM »
If such a thing like a virtually ice free Arctic would occur within the next 10 years, you bet that the world would say: well, it seems too late to do something drastic so let's keep on with capitalism without sustainibility as long as we can. You see, the poor CEOs need their bonuses, the shareholders more profit and the economy need more growth!
This. People will need to see a problem for them personally before they perceive there to be a problem generally, and it'll take quite a lot of that to overcome the misconception that action on climate change is more expensive than inaction on climate change. Economics is out there with climate science on the hit list of things that people mistrust and misunderstand.

abbottisgone

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2171 on: May 10, 2016, 04:38:14 AM »
If such a thing like a virtually ice free Arctic would occur within the next 10 years, you bet that the world would say: well, it seems too late to do something drastic so let's keep on with capitalism without sustainibility as long as we can. You see, the poor CEOs need their bonuses, the shareholders more profit and the economy need more growth!
This. People will need to see a problem for them personally before they perceive there to be a problem generally, and it'll take quite a lot of that to overcome the misconception that action on climate change is more expensive than inaction on climate change. Economics is out there with climate science on the hit list of things that people mistrust and misunderstand.
Iff the ice were to go below 2.00 this year, for example, then I would expect the worlds leaders to make immediate statements.

If the ice were to go below 2.00 this year then you are talking about geo-political eruption... thus making statements of diplomacy absolutely necessary.

Am I saying the ice is going to go below 2.00 anyway?  ??? ??? That's a sobering thought...
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6roucho

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2172 on: May 10, 2016, 04:51:20 AM »
If such a thing like a virtually ice free Arctic would occur within the next 10 years, you bet that the world would say: well, it seems too late to do something drastic so let's keep on with capitalism without sustainibility as long as we can. You see, the poor CEOs need their bonuses, the shareholders more profit and the economy need more growth!
This. People will need to see a problem for them personally before they perceive there to be a problem generally, and it'll take quite a lot of that to overcome the misconception that action on climate change is more expensive than inaction on climate change. Economics is out there with climate science on the hit list of things that people mistrust and misunderstand.
Iff the ice were to go below 2.00 this year, for example, then I would expect the worlds leaders to make immediate statements.

If the ice were to go below 2.00 this year then you are talking about geo-political eruption... thus making statements of diplomacy absolutely necessary.

Am I saying the ice is going to go below 2.00 anyway?  ??? ??? That's a sobering thought...
I think the ice going below 2 would be a purely academic matter for the vast majority of humans.

When it goes below 1, which is the conventional threshold for an ice-free Arctic, there'll be a reassuring chorus that 1 is only a convention, and that the Arctic isn't "really" ice-free. People simply don't care. They don't see a connection between what happens in the remote north and their lives, and they won't, especially if it's unpleasant or inconvenient to perceive. Expect mainly silence, and the usual heckling. When scientists point to weather events, they'll be accused of scaremongering and using human tragedy to promote their ideas.

More of what happens now, basically.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2173 on: May 10, 2016, 05:21:56 AM »
IJIS:

11,683,160 km2(May 9, 2016)
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2174 on: May 10, 2016, 05:29:05 AM »
Almost a Cent!
Have a ice day!

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2175 on: May 10, 2016, 05:35:21 AM »
Okhotsk and Bering will both collapse this week and there will be steep losses around Svalbard as well. The only offsetting area will be SE of Greenland where the sea ice will spread out from the coast (which means it will probably get wiped out in a week or two as well). Even with the "gains" SE of Greenland I think we are likely to see total losses that are very large and average 100K+/day for the next week or so (or longer).

abbottisgone

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2176 on: May 10, 2016, 05:48:22 AM »
If such a thing like a virtually ice free Arctic would occur within the next 10 years, you bet that the world would say: well, it seems too late to do something drastic so let's keep on with capitalism without sustainibility as long as we can. You see, the poor CEOs need their bonuses, the shareholders more profit and the economy need more growth!
This. People will need to see a problem for them personally before they perceive there to be a problem generally, and it'll take quite a lot of that to overcome the misconception that action on climate change is more expensive than inaction on climate change. Economics is out there with climate science on the hit list of things that people mistrust and misunderstand.
Iff the ice were to go below 2.00 this year, for example, then I would expect the worlds leaders to make immediate statements.

If the ice were to go below 2.00 this year then you are talking about geo-political eruption... thus making statements of diplomacy absolutely necessary.

Am I saying the ice is going to go below 2.00 anyway?  ??? ??? That's a sobering thought...
I think the ice going below 2 would be a purely academic matter for the vast majority of humans.

When it goes below 1, which is the conventional threshold for an ice-free Arctic, there'll be a reassuring chorus that 1 is only a convention, and that the Arctic isn't "really" ice-free. People simply don't care. They don't see a connection between what happens in the remote north and their lives, and they won't, especially if it's unpleasant or inconvenient to perceive. Expect mainly silence, and the usual heckling. When scientists point to weather events, they'll be accused of scaremongering and using human tragedy to promote their ideas.

More of what happens now, basically.
I hear what you are saying I simply choose to believe that whilst the species is conservative, ...or plain lazy for the purposes of conserving energy, we are survivors.

 For instance we talk about political correctness: but people still talk about necessary things. For instance: what else are we doing here in cyberpsace?

 To me 2.00 is close enough to 1.00 to herald real disciplined thought process otherwise known as diplomacy. I believe this because I believe it has to be: I believe 2.00 is  a very scary number were it to happen this year for example.

 The thing I didn't expect to stumble upon today was the fear induced by the thought experiment of ever getting to 2.0!!

 ARE THERE ANY THOUGHTS ON THE PHYSICAL PROBLEMS FOR A WORLD WITH 2.00 IN THE ARCTIC AT ANY TIME IN THE FUTURE?
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6roucho

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2177 on: May 10, 2016, 06:15:48 AM »
If such a thing like a virtually ice free Arctic would occur within the next 10 years, you bet that the world would say: well, it seems too late to do something drastic so let's keep on with capitalism without sustainibility as long as we can. You see, the poor CEOs need their bonuses, the shareholders more profit and the economy need more growth!
This. People will need to see a problem for them personally before they perceive there to be a problem generally, and it'll take quite a lot of that to overcome the misconception that action on climate change is more expensive than inaction on climate change. Economics is out there with climate science on the hit list of things that people mistrust and misunderstand.
Iff the ice were to go below 2.00 this year, for example, then I would expect the worlds leaders to make immediate statements.

If the ice were to go below 2.00 this year then you are talking about geo-political eruption... thus making statements of diplomacy absolutely necessary.

Am I saying the ice is going to go below 2.00 anyway?  ??? ??? That's a sobering thought...
I think the ice going below 2 would be a purely academic matter for the vast majority of humans.

When it goes below 1, which is the conventional threshold for an ice-free Arctic, there'll be a reassuring chorus that 1 is only a convention, and that the Arctic isn't "really" ice-free. People simply don't care. They don't see a connection between what happens in the remote north and their lives, and they won't, especially if it's unpleasant or inconvenient to perceive. Expect mainly silence, and the usual heckling. When scientists point to weather events, they'll be accused of scaremongering and using human tragedy to promote their ideas.

More of what happens now, basically.
I hear what you are saying I simply choose to believe that whilst the species is conservative, ...or plain lazy for the purposes of conserving energy, we are survivors.

 For instance we talk about political correctness: but people still talk about necessary things. For instance: what else are we doing here in cyberpsace?

 To me 2.00 is close enough to 1.00 to herald real disciplined thought process otherwise known as diplomacy. I believe this because I believe it has to be: I believe 2.00 is  a very scary number were it to happen this year for example.

 The thing I didn't expect to stumble upon today was the fear induced by the thought experiment of ever getting to 2.0!!

 ARE THERE ANY THOUGHTS ON THE PHYSICAL PROBLEMS FOR A WORLD WITH 2.00 IN THE ARCTIC AT ANY TIME IN THE FUTURE?
There certainly are in the consequences section of the forum. We're currently spamming the hard science threads.

abbottisgone

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2178 on: May 10, 2016, 06:16:50 AM »
Alright, cheers.
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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2179 on: May 10, 2016, 08:42:29 AM »
Another big drop yesterday (99k), enough to make us lowest on record by 436k. We're also 523k below last year and 1.10 million below 2012.

2012 didn't reach this level of coverage until May 28th!
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2180 on: May 10, 2016, 10:13:38 AM »
I like the way you say "us" BFTV, it makes it personal!

abbottisgone

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2181 on: May 10, 2016, 10:18:30 AM »
I like the way you say "us" BFTV, it makes it personal!
Nowadays when I post these graphs around the net I like to title the thread:

"Your kids Arctic sea ice!"

They all love me on the internet  ;D

 -google it and you'll always know where to find me making trouble in real time  8) 8) 8) 8) 8) 8) 8) 8) 8)
..
But I left school and grew my hair
They didn't understand
They wanted me to be respected as
A doctor or a lawyer man
But I had other plans..........

sesyf

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2182 on: May 10, 2016, 12:40:21 PM »
Sorry, I'm getting the usual googleic splitting of the "Your kids Arctic sea ice!" to different combinations... verbatim: Your search - "Your kids Arctic sea ice!" - did not match any documents. Reset search tools

Buddy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2183 on: May 10, 2016, 12:42:30 PM »
Quote
2012 didn't reach this level of coverage until May 28th!

THAT...is an "eye opener."  I'm awake now....don't even need my coffee ;D

That "big fat tail" of ice that was hanging into the Beaufort in 2012 will be toast.  As well as some ice on the "pole side" of the main flow that was there in 2012.

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DoomInTheUK

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2184 on: May 10, 2016, 01:46:53 PM »
At this rate of melt we'll be ice free by the end of August.  ::)

Just when I thought I was getting a handle on how a melt season develops, 2016 comes along and knackers it all up again.

I'm still waiting patiently for the milestone of seeing the first time that the pack breaks in two. It might never happen, but it would be fun to see!  :o

OldLeatherneck

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2185 on: May 10, 2016, 02:06:01 PM »
During the first 9 days of May, 2016 IJIS Extent has lost 610,287 Km2 for a daily average of 67,810 Km2.

For the first ten days of May only one year, 2010, lost more than 600 Km2.  That was 2010 with a whopping loss of 861,227 Km2.

For the entire month of may only six years have had IJIS Extent losses greater than 1.5 M Km2.  The below table shows the May loss for each of those years and the average daily losses required during the remaining days of May for 2016 to equal the loss of that year:

YEAR   Total Loss in  May       Avg Daily Losses Required in 2016
2010          2,183,976                           71,531
2015          1,828,445                           55,371
2009          1,767,733                           52,611
2011          1,722,843                           50,571
2012          1,677,761                           48,522
2014          1,508,260                           40,817

It will take near record breaking losses for the remainder of this month for 2016 to equal the May losses of 2010.  However, it is highly likely that 2016 will exceed the losses in 2012.  To exceed the losses of 2015 will only require slightly above average losses for the remainder of the month.
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abbottisgone

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2186 on: May 10, 2016, 06:45:13 PM »
At this rate of melt we'll be ice free by the end of August.  ::)

Just when I thought I was getting a handle on how a melt season develops, 2016 comes along and knackers it all up again.

I'm still waiting patiently for the milestone of seeing the first time that the pack breaks in two. It might never happen, but it would be fun to see!  :o
Hey, that sounds cool: IMAGINE HOW SWEET THAT ACTUALLY WOULD SOUND?

[Wait,... Exclamation mark!!!!!!!!!]

 :o
..
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They didn't understand
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But I had other plans..........

Juan C. García

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2187 on: May 10, 2016, 07:08:02 PM »
I'm still waiting patiently for the milestone of seeing the first time that the pack breaks in two. It might never happen, but it would be fun to see!  :o

It happened in 2012, with the Great Arctic Cyclone:


Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Frivolousz21

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2188 on: May 10, 2016, 07:50:35 PM »
The gac is way overrated



The differences with and without it would have been incredibly small.


The most amazing part was the speed in which large areas of Ice floes melted so fast.

But it also exhausted a lot of heat.  Where as a 2010 like dipole would have injected more heat into the basin and had a very similar end result
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Nick_Naylor

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2189 on: May 10, 2016, 10:15:57 PM »
The gac is way overrated



The differences with and without it would have been incredibly small.


The most amazing part was the speed in which large areas of Ice floes melted so fast.

But it also exhausted a lot of heat.  Where as a 2010 like dipole would have injected more heat into the basin and had a very similar end result

Perhaps an earlier GAC would have had a greater impact, if the melt-exposed water saw July or August insolation.

DoomInTheUK

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2190 on: May 10, 2016, 11:53:00 PM »

It happened in 2012, with the Great Arctic Cyclone:



Yes, I think that was what first put me onto the idea, but I was thinking more of a split towards the CAA side so that the CAB has a free floating ice-cap. Maybe I'm just being picky though. I always felt the separated flow in 2012 was going to melt out.

Hell, it's turning into a must watch event anyway. I can't tear myself away from it.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2191 on: May 11, 2016, 05:23:29 AM »
IJIS:

11,633,343 km2(May 10, 2016)
Have a ice day!

Meirion

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2192 on: May 11, 2016, 08:47:10 AM »
134,000 drop in three days to break 11.5 by May 13?

abbottisgone

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2193 on: May 11, 2016, 02:26:22 PM »
134,000 drop in three days to break 11.5 by May 13?
I'd take that bet!
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OldLeatherneck

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2194 on: May 11, 2016, 03:25:29 PM »


During the first 10 days of May, the average daily losses were 66K, which is well above averages.

The next month will be very interesting to watch, for those of us you are speculating about the possibility of setting a new record this year.  As the projections show, it is reasonable to assume that 2016 will still be below 2012 on the 15th of June.  The real question is how far below 2012 will we be on the 15th of June.  As you can see, 2012 had massive losses in early June.

It will require average daily losses of 69K, for 2016 to be 1,000,000 below 2012 on June 15th.
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Buddy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2195 on: May 11, 2016, 04:11:01 PM »
Quote
It will require average daily losses of 69K, for 2016 to be 1,000,000 below 2012 on June 15th.

First of all.....GREAT CHART.  Love it...

Secondly.....69K per day MORE THAN LIKELY given the conditions of the ice on several fronts.

 
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DavidR

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2196 on: May 11, 2016, 04:38:51 PM »
It will require average daily losses of 69K, for 2016 to be 1,000,000 below 2012 on June 15th.
That  suggests that with "average" average losses, 2016  will be 500,000 below 2011 on June 15th and 200,000 below by Jul 1st.  Of course for the last 6 weeks 2016 has been falling  much  closer to  record rates rather than average rates. And there is no reason to think that  will stop any time soon.
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OldLeatherneck

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2197 on: May 11, 2016, 05:16:47 PM »
It will require average daily losses of 69K, for 2016 to be 1,000,000 below 2012 on June 15th.
That  suggests that with "average" average losses, 2016  will be 500,000 below 2011 on June 15th and 200,000 below by Jul 1st.  Of course for the last 6 weeks 2016 has been falling  much  closer to  record rates rather than average rates. And there is no reason to think that  will stop any time soon.
Quote
It will require average daily losses of 69K, for 2016 to be 1,000,000 below 2012 on June 15th.

First of all.....GREAT CHART.  Love it...

Secondly.....69K per day MORE THAN LIKELY given the conditions of the ice on several fronts.

 

I agree with both Buddy and David R that given  the current forecasts and condition of the ice, there is a high probability that losses will be well above average.  Whether a high rate of loss can be maintained for an extended period will depend on the vagaries of weather.

I'm glad that some find these charts and projections useful, I will provide another update along with June loss statistics within the next week.

After that, my wife and I are leaving for nearly a month in Italy and Croatia.  During our travels, I will only have access to the internet via my wife's tablet, which I am still rather clumsy with.  At best, I may be able to make an occasional snarky comment.  Will not be doing any charting.
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Lord M Vader

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2198 on: May 11, 2016, 05:33:25 PM »
First, OLN, hope you and your wife get a trip to southern Europe! :)

Second, considering a somewhat conservative normal sea ice loss will most likely render a new record low value for date by June 30. The current record holder is 2010 which had a SIE of about 8,85 Mn km2 by that date. Interestingly, a record loss would blow the 2010 record value away with more than 2 weeks ahead. However, I don't see a record loss as possible as we still lack a strong dipole with heavy ice transport to Fram Strait.

//LMV


Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2199 on: May 12, 2016, 05:23:37 AM »
IJIS:

11,573,104 km2(May 11, 2016)
Have a ice day!