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Buddy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2200 on: May 12, 2016, 05:58:44 AM »
I suspect there is a very good chance that the angle of descent will steepen about the last week of May or so......2 - 3 weeks before the same thing happened in 2012.  The ice continues to set the table for a record setting plunge of significant proportions.

This is really the sort of thing we should expect to happen. With  weaker...thinner ice.....warmer atmospheric temperatures.......warmer ocean temperatures.  And this SHOULD happen earlier than in 2012.

The next 5 -10 years those plunges will come earlier......and of course most or all of the ice will be gone at summers end each year.
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Tensor

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2201 on: May 12, 2016, 06:42:15 AM »
IJIS:

11,573,104 km2(May 11, 2016)

It appears that extent is now half a million below the previous low year.
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Juan C. García

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2202 on: May 12, 2016, 07:50:19 AM »
IJIS:

11,573,104 km2(May 11, 2016)

It appears that extent is now half a million below the previous low year.

According to the graph, you are right. Almost half a million below 2015: 12.06-11.57=0.49 million km2. And it is worst against the other years.  :o
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

bbr2314

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2203 on: May 12, 2016, 09:02:45 AM »
It seems like 10.5M KM2 by 5/28 would indicate legitimate potential for an ice-free Arctic this summer. The rest of the month should feature continual steady losses with a sprinkling (or more) of 100K+ reductions so this really shouldn't be that big of a challenge -- the average daily loss needs to be about 70-75K.

After that point 2015 peters away. While it's possible that happens this year it seems very unlikely, and long range models already offer possibility of substantial melt across entire Pacific sector through D10. The amount of pre-conditioning and open water already visible will likely doom almost the entire pack this year, IMO.

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2204 on: May 13, 2016, 05:34:31 AM »
IJIS:

11,488,450 km2(May 12, 2016)
Have a ice day!

Tensor

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2205 on: May 13, 2016, 05:50:14 AM »
IJIS:

11,488,450 km2(May 12, 2016)

Loss of a half a million in six days.  11,986,358 on May 6th. 
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jdallen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2206 on: May 13, 2016, 06:05:56 AM »
IJIS:

11,488,450 km2(May 12, 2016)

Loss of a half a million in six days.  11,986,358 on May 6th.
10 days before 2015 and two weeks+ earlier than pretty much everything else.
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Magma.

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2207 on: May 13, 2016, 06:10:09 AM »
Earliest date for IJIS sea ice extent to drop below 11,500,000 km2

1. May 12, 2016
2. May 21, 2015
3. May 25 (three way tie)

Average date
2003-2015: May 30
2000s: June 4
1990s: June 15
1980s: June 26

Meirion

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2208 on: May 13, 2016, 08:53:45 AM »
Last Saturday I looked at CCI and forecast we would be under 11.5 by tomorrow. This is CCI forecast for next Wednesday - any predictions?

DavidR

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2209 on: May 13, 2016, 09:42:16 AM »
IJIS:

11,488,450 km2(May 12, 2016)

Loss of a half a million in six days.  11,986,358 on May 6th.
Also the equal  fastest loss from 12.0 to 11.5 on the IJIS record despite starting six days earlier than any other year.
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2210 on: May 13, 2016, 10:03:28 AM »
IJIS:

11,488,450 km2(May 12, 2016)

Loss of a half a million in six days.  11,986,358 on May 6th.
Also the equal  fastest loss from 12.0 to 11.5 on the IJIS record despite starting six days earlier than any other year.
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2211 on: May 13, 2016, 10:09:57 AM »
Last Saturday I looked at CCI and forecast we would be under 11.5 by tomorrow. This is CCI forecast for next Wednesday - any predictions?
The North Pole is light green!

Is that good?
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lanevn

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2212 on: May 13, 2016, 01:02:06 PM »
The North Pole is light green!
Is that good?

It depends on the point of view

DoomInTheUK

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2213 on: May 13, 2016, 01:08:12 PM »
...any predictions?

I predict we'll run out of expletives by the end of June! There seems to be some inertia building in this years melt.

Buddy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2214 on: May 13, 2016, 01:19:28 PM »
Quote
I predict we'll run out of expletives by the end of June! There seems to be some inertia building in this years melt.

Look at the 2012 Arctic ice sheet trend line......then gap it down....and then start the June "plunge" a little earlier than in 2012 (like in a week or two from now)....and then steepen the descent.

THAT....is how 2016 will likely end up.  And that brings us to a "before unheard of" drop.  Just a continuing story of what will unfold in the future.

This shouldn't be "surprising" to anyone here.  Disappointing....YES.  Surprising.....NO.

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lanevn

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2215 on: May 13, 2016, 01:44:28 PM »

Look at the 2012 Arctic ice sheet trend line......then gap it down....and then start the June "plunge" a little earlier than in 2012 (like in a week or two from now)....and then steepen the descent.

THAT....is how 2016 will likely end up.  And that brings us to a "before unheard of" drop.  Just a continuing story of what will unfold in the future.

This shouldn't be "surprising" to anyone here.  Disappointing....YES.  Surprising.....NO.

November elections are coming up quickly in the US.   DO SOMTHING ABOUT IT.

I think this will exciting, disappointing if it will end with nothing, like 2013-2015.

OldLeatherneck

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2216 on: May 13, 2016, 02:04:55 PM »


As the above table shows, 2016 losses have been racking well above average, with the exception of one 10 day period, so far this year.  I would expect that for the next few weeks we will continue to see well above average losses since that average daily losses through the first ten days of June is only 50K.  If average losses continue to be in the 65-70K range for the next month, 2012's record will be in jeopardy.

After seeing the the table, I decided to plot 2016 losses from 20 March against the 2003-2015 averages as well as +/- 10% and 25% deviations.  It would appear that after a few wild swings 2016 is tracking about 25% above the average. 

Bad things are happening to the Arctic......with no reprieve in sight!!



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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2217 on: May 13, 2016, 02:14:23 PM »
Last Saturday I looked at CCI and forecast we would be under 11.5 by tomorrow. This is CCI forecast for next Wednesday - any predictions?

I predict continued dramatic snow melt on the ice....not sure what else.

Buddy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2218 on: May 13, 2016, 02:22:18 PM »
Quote
Bad things are happening to the Arctic......with no reprieve in sight!!

WOW....you really ARE getting very good with the charts.  Numbers are very powerful when presented in a CLEAR...CONSICE picture.  Great job again..with BOTH charts.  Numbers do tell the story..
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bbr2314

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2219 on: May 13, 2016, 09:38:10 PM »
If the latest EURO is correct (and I suspect it may be given GFS agreement) then I think 10M KM2 by 6/1 is likely on IJIS. From there we pull away from the pack completely and if we follow a 2012-esque decline we should be at ~6.5KM2 come 7/1.

But, more firmly, I think 10KM2 by 6/1 is now seeming likely. The Pacific ice has been demolished but not destroyed which yields very easy continual losses on that side. The Beaufort will be attacked and begin to lose significant area/extent. And Fram export is going to continue, but with the NATL now rapidly warming, that is going to draw salty (and fairly warm/warming) Atlantic waters abnormally north extremely early, and the implications could be quite dire.

It is really looking like we may see a Blue Arctic event this yr IMO.


« Last Edit: May 13, 2016, 09:57:43 PM by bbr2314 »

OldLeatherneck

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2220 on: May 13, 2016, 10:06:50 PM »
If the latest EURO is correct (and I suspect it may be given GFS agreement) then I think 10M KM2 by 6/1 is likely on IJIS. From there we pull away from the pack completely and if we follow a 2012-esque decline we should be at ~6.5KM2 come 7/1.

But, more firmly, I think 10KM2 by 6/1 is now seeming likely. The Pacific ice has been demolished but not destroyed which yields very easy continual losses on that side. The Beaufort will be attacked and begin to lose significant area/extent. And Fram export is going to continue, but with the NATL now rapidly warming, that is going to draw salty (and fairly warm/warming) Atlantic waters abnormally north extremely early, and the implications could be quite dire.

It is really looking like we may see a Blue Arctic event this yr IMO.



You might be right about being down close to 10,000,000 by the first of June given the current forecasts.  It will, however, require average daily losses of just over 78K/day for the rest of May. What  is even more scary is the thought that 2016 may continue to expand its 1,000,000 lead over 2012. This will start June with a lot of open water to begin the peak season for solar insolation.
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Csnavywx

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2221 on: May 14, 2016, 04:12:16 AM »
If the latest EURO is correct (and I suspect it may be given GFS agreement) then I think 10M KM2 by 6/1 is likely on IJIS. From there we pull away from the pack completely and if we follow a 2012-esque decline we should be at ~6.5KM2 come 7/1.

But, more firmly, I think 10KM2 by 6/1 is now seeming likely. The Pacific ice has been demolished but not destroyed which yields very easy continual losses on that side. The Beaufort will be attacked and begin to lose significant area/extent. And Fram export is going to continue, but with the NATL now rapidly warming, that is going to draw salty (and fairly warm/warming) Atlantic waters abnormally north extremely early, and the implications could be quite dire.

It is really looking like we may see a Blue Arctic event this yr IMO.



You might be right about being down close to 10,000,000 by the first of June given the current forecasts.  It will, however, require average daily losses of just over 78K/day for the rest of May. What  is even more scary is the thought that 2016 may continue to expand its 1,000,000 lead over 2012. This will start June with a lot of open water to begin the peak season for solar insolation.

10.0M by 6/1 is a tall order and would require the opening of another big area of open water soon. That might be possible over the Chukchi and ESS over the next 10 days as it seems that area will be hit quite hard by WAA and moisture advection on strong southerly winds. Could be quite a bit of sunshine to go with it as well.

bbr2314

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2222 on: May 14, 2016, 05:56:23 AM »
IJIS 5/13 down 120K... 11.37KM2.

Tall order just got a bit shorter. ;)

Extrapolating the last week would yield a 6/1 total of ~9.7MKM2, but I do not think that is necessarily likely. It is nevertheless alarming.

To hit 10MKM2 we must now average about -76KM2/day through 6/1. I think that is doable.
« Last Edit: May 14, 2016, 06:06:21 AM by bbr2314 »

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2223 on: May 14, 2016, 06:07:36 AM »
IJIS:

11,371,124 km2(May 13, 2016)
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Juan C. García

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2224 on: May 14, 2016, 06:19:56 AM »
11,488,450 km2(May 12, 2016) - 11,371,124 km2(May 13, 2016)= 117,326 km2 Century Break!!!
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Tensor

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2225 on: May 14, 2016, 06:21:17 AM »
To hit 10MKM2 we must now average about -76KM2/day through 6/1. I think that is doable.

Well, by today IJIS, we're 41k ahead of what we need to average. Wow.   
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2226 on: May 14, 2016, 06:41:12 AM »
To hit 10MKM2 we must now average about -76KM2/day through 6/1. I think that is doable.

Here's a good opportunity for me to stop lurking. We only need to average -72KM2/day to drop below 10MKM2 through 6/1. ~76KM2/day would get us there on 5/31.

oren

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2227 on: May 14, 2016, 09:49:52 AM »
To hit 10MKM2 we must now average about -76KM2/day through 6/1. I think that is doable.

Here's a good opportunity for me to stop lurking. We only need to average -72KM2/day to drop below 10MKM2 through 6/1. ~76KM2/day would get us there on 5/31.

Welcome gregcharles! Delurking is an important milestone.

And the IJIS chart is just WOW.

Meirion

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2228 on: May 14, 2016, 09:58:14 AM »
On May 7 I forecast that we would be below 11.5 by May 13 based on CCI forecast. Based on this week's CCI I think we will be below 11 on May 20 figs.

OldLeatherneck

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2229 on: May 14, 2016, 04:26:52 PM »
A Couple of Big IFs

The below are possibilities based on my simplistic projections:

BIG IF #1

If SIE losses are consistently 10% above average from today through the 10th of September, 2016 will be almost 90K Km2 below 2012.

BIG IF #2

If SIE losses are consistently average from today through the 10th of September, 2016 will be almost 440K Km2 below 2015 and almost 225K Km2 below 2007.

While this is still the Arctic and strange things happen from time to time, I'm guessing (NOT projecting) that 2015 and 2007 will be seriously threatened this year and 2012 will be vulnerable.  The next month  or two will certainly increase or decrease the likelihood of seeing a new record low this year.
 
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Tensor

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2230 on: May 14, 2016, 04:53:39 PM »
A Couple of Big IFs

The below are possibilities based on my simplistic projections:

BIG IF #1

If SIE losses are consistently 10% above average from today through the 10th of September, 2016 will be almost 90K Km2 below 2012.

BIG IF #2

If SIE losses are consistently average from today through the 10th of September, 2016 will be almost 440K Km2 below 2015 and almost 225K Km2 below 2007.

OL, for consistent 10% losses should that be 900k below 2012?
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OldLeatherneck

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2231 on: May 14, 2016, 05:20:33 PM »
A Couple of Big IFs

The below are possibilities based on my simplistic projections:

BIG IF #1

If SIE losses are consistently 10% above average from today through the 10th of September, 2016 will be almost 90K Km2 below 2012.

BIG IF #2

If SIE losses are consistently average from today through the 10th of September, 2016 will be almost 440K Km2 below 2015 and almost 225K Km2 below 2007.

OL, for consistent 10% losses should that be 900k below 2012?

Tensor,

For my projections, I'm using 2003 -2015 data.  I then take the average of 3 discrete periods each month (early month - 10 days, mid month- 10 days, late month - 10 or 11 days).  From there it is just a series of incremental linear regressions using 10% below average, average and 10% above average losses.
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Tensor

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2232 on: May 14, 2016, 05:54:45 PM »
My fault.  I thought the 10% above average meant 10% more melt.  I couldn't figure out how more melt ended with a lower loss.   I had the wording switched around.  My bad.  Thanks for the clarification. 
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2233 on: May 14, 2016, 09:52:46 PM »
The ice shelfs north of Ellesmere Island Ward Hunt etc. is being attacked by the motion of the Beaufort Gyre:
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2234 on: May 14, 2016, 10:13:06 PM »
The ice shelfs north of Ellesmere Island Ward Hunt etc. is being attacked by the motion of the Beaufort Gyre:

 :o
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bbr2314

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2235 on: May 15, 2016, 05:27:21 AM »
Down to 11,293,726 km2 for 5/14, decrease of 77,398km2. Exceeded what's needed to be below 10M km2 come 6/1.

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2236 on: May 15, 2016, 05:28:59 AM »
IJIS:

11,293,726 km2(May 14, 2016)
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bbr2314

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2237 on: May 15, 2016, 05:35:14 AM »
If we follow where 2012 was when it had the same # as today, we would go sub-10M km2 by 5/27. If we follow 2015, it would be 6/12. And for 2007, it would be 6/4.

I think a 2012 (or worse) trajectory is certainly possible. The plumes of heat crossing the pole over the next week increasingly seem to be pooling in the Arctic rather than exiting, and the residual heat is now accumulating to the point where the GFS has the entire Arctic above freezing by the end of the month.

I would take those LR forecasts with a fistful of salt if the EURO were not in a similar camp. The Pacific side is going to be absolutely torched and obliterated, and the Fram export is only going to get worse as a legit dipole sets up.

This is the year, folks!

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2238 on: May 15, 2016, 07:08:44 AM »
If we follow where 2012 was when it had the same # as today, we would go sub-10M km2 by 5/27. If we follow 2015, it would be 6/12. And for 2007, it would be 6/4.

I think a 2012 (or worse) trajectory is certainly possible. The plumes of heat crossing the pole over the next week increasingly seem to be pooling in the Arctic rather than exiting, and the residual heat is now accumulating to the point where the GFS has the entire Arctic above freezing by the end of the month.

Five IJIS years have had declines above 1 M km^2 from now to June 1st, the worst  being 2010 with  almost 1.2 M. We would need a decline almost  10% above that to get to 10 M by June 1st. 

Despite this, I agree that this is acheivable based on the volume of thin ice available at the start  of the melt season.  My volume based prediction indicator shows a rapid loss in 2012 about now will be followed by rapid loss in 2016.  2012 lost 600 K km^2 from May 10th to May 17th, exceptionally high for that  period.   If the predictor is right we should expect significant losses over the next 10 days.  If the weather also supports loss these could be exceptional. 

As my predictor is not weather based I  expect the predicted weather in the next week will push the extent loss even higher with the possibility of reaching 10 M km^2 by  June 1st.
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2239 on: May 15, 2016, 07:25:29 AM »
With todays extent value, the decline from today to the minumum, for both 2012 and 2007, would break the 2012 record.  The declines in 2008 and 2011 would take the extent  below 3.5 Mkm^2 and since 2007, only 2014 would leave the extent above 2007.
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2240 on: May 15, 2016, 08:29:20 AM »
There's a chance that what we're seeing is an early meltout of the peripheral seas and the decline slope may flatten out once these waters are ice free.

People might want to keep an eye on Wipneus's graphing of the Arctic Basin extent.

https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf/basin-extent-multiprod.png

At this point 2016 is below 2012 through 2015 but not as extremely so.


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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2241 on: May 15, 2016, 09:45:24 AM »
'There's a chance that what we're seeing is an early meltout of the peripheral seas'

that's exactly what we're seeing

'and the decline slope may flatten out once these waters are ice free'

of course it will. still it won't help the ice in the central arctic to be surrounded by open water

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2242 on: May 15, 2016, 09:46:44 AM »
There's a chance that what we're seeing is an early meltout of the peripheral seas and the decline slope may flatten out once these waters are ice free.

At this point 2016 is below 2012 through 2015 but not as extremely so.

This graph shows extent starting to decline about 14 days ahead of any of the previous years. This is in agreement with the general picture that the melt is about  two weeks ahead of previous years. We are 10 days ahead of 2015 and no other years have been this low before May 29.  What we are seeing is not a minor variation that may disappear in a few days.

Only the smallest decline in the IJIS record, over the next month will put extent above 2012 on June 14th.  A decline like 2010 or 2011 will see the extent further from the record low than it  is now. A decline like 2012 would see the gap  between 2012 and 2016 at over 1.2 Mkm^2.

My own prediction based on the April PIOMAS data and mid April extent is that 2016 will retain the record unchallenged until mid July.
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oren

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2243 on: May 15, 2016, 10:46:42 AM »
There's a chance that what we're seeing is an early meltout of the peripheral seas and the decline slope may flatten out once these waters are ice free.

At this point 2016 is below 2012 through 2015 but not as extremely so.

This graph shows extent starting to decline about 14 days ahead of any of the previous years. This is in agreement with the general picture that the melt is about  two weeks ahead of previous years. We are 10 days ahead of 2015 and no other years have been this low before May 29.  What we are seeing is not a minor variation that may disappear in a few days.

Only the smallest decline in the IJIS record, over the next month will put extent above 2012 on June 14th.  A decline like 2010 or 2011 will see the extent further from the record low than it  is now. A decline like 2012 would see the gap  between 2012 and 2016 at over 1.2 Mkm^2.

My own prediction based on the April PIOMAS data and mid April extent is that 2016 will retain the record unchallenged until mid July.

Yeah, this graph shows an unprecedented early breakout inside the Arctic Basin. It looks small but it's significant. I think the whole anomaly is in the Beaufort, the place to watch for the coming weeks.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2244 on: May 15, 2016, 11:23:16 AM »
Another graph to add to Espen's fine work.



We're now lowest on record by 596k, and 1.166 million km2 below 2012.
If we stopped melting entirely today, 2012 wouldn't catch this year until June 5th
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crandles

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2245 on: May 15, 2016, 12:55:08 PM »
This is the time of year where all years 2003-2015 are packed into a range of just 820k but this year is nearly 600k below that range and with only a drop of 24k in the lower bound of the range tomorrow 650k below the range looks quite easily reachable.

The range gets down to 691k on 19th May, the lowest range in the melt season. To be more than that full range below the lowest year requires losses of 373k over next 5 days.

No particular significance to this, just seems notable / appealed to me as 'looking large' rather than "looks small".


OldLeatherneck

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2246 on: May 15, 2016, 02:33:49 PM »
This is the time of year where all years 2003-2015 are packed into a range of just 820k but this year is nearly 600k below that range and with only a drop of 24k in the lower bound of the range tomorrow 650k below the range looks quite easily reachable.

The range gets down to 691k on 19th May, the lowest range in the melt season. To be more than that full range below the lowest year requires losses of 373k over next 5 days.

No particular significance to this, just seems notable / appealed to me as 'looking large' rather than "looks small".

Some additional notables.  The average daily rate of loss for the last 7 days was over 88K, which is a rate typically not seen until late June or into July.  We've had a few posts about what rate of losses are required to achieve certain milestones, so I thought I'd put them all in one table with the average daily losses required from today forwards to achieve them.

If the current rate of losses doesn't soon regress towards the mean, we are truly sailing into uncharted waters!!


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abbottisgone

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2247 on: May 15, 2016, 02:56:43 PM »
This is the time of year where all years 2003-2015 are packed into a range of just 820k but this year is nearly 600k below that range and with only a drop of 24k in the lower bound of the range tomorrow 650k below the range looks quite easily reachable.

The range gets down to 691k on 19th May, the lowest range in the melt season. To be more than that full range below the lowest year requires losses of 373k over next 5 days.

No particular significance to this, just seems notable / appealed to me as 'looking large' rather than "looks small".

Some additional notables.  The average daily rate of loss for the last 7 days was over 88K, which is a rate typically not seen until late June or into July.  We've had a few posts about what rate of losses are required to achieve certain milestones, so I thought I'd put them all in one table with the average daily losses required from today forwards to achieve them.

If the current rate of losses doesn't soon regress towards the mean, we are truly sailing into uncharted waters!!


This is no time for cryptic crosswords:

Are we talking about melt-time mayday or not?

 ???
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gregcharles

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2248 on: May 15, 2016, 04:40:16 PM »
Quote
Some additional notables.  The average daily rate of loss for the last 7 days was over 88K, which is a rate typically not seen until late June or into July.  We've had a few posts about what rate of losses are required to achieve certain milestones, so I thought I'd put them all in one table with the average daily losses required from today forwards to achieve them.

If the current rate of losses doesn't soon regress towards the mean, we are truly sailing into uncharted waters!!



De-lurking again, and for the same reason. I'll show my work this time.  :)

May 14 IJIS: 11,293,726
Days to June 1 (inclusive): 18
1,293,726/18 = 71,874

So, we just have to average losses of 71,874 to reach 10 million on June 1.

OldLeatherneck

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2249 on: May 15, 2016, 08:07:40 PM »
Quote
Some additional notables.  The average daily rate of loss for the last 7 days was over 88K, which is a rate typically not seen until late June or into July.  We've had a few posts about what rate of losses are required to achieve certain milestones, so I thought I'd put them all in one table with the average daily losses required from today forwards to achieve them.

If the current rate of losses doesn't soon regress towards the mean, we are truly sailing into uncharted waters!!



De-lurking again, and for the same reason. I'll show my work this time.  :)

May 14 IJIS: 11,293,726
Days to June 1 (inclusive): 18
1,293,726/18 = 71,874

So, we just have to average losses of 71,874 to reach 10 million on June 1.

You are correct, the numbers I provided would have taken us to May 31st.  Thanks for having stopped lurking.  We all need some adult supervision from time to time!!
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