If we follow where 2012 was when it had the same # as today, we would go sub-10M km2 by 5/27. If we follow 2015, it would be 6/12. And for 2007, it would be 6/4.
I think a 2012 (or worse) trajectory is certainly possible. The plumes of heat crossing the pole over the next week increasingly seem to be pooling in the Arctic rather than exiting, and the residual heat is now accumulating to the point where the GFS has the entire Arctic above freezing by the end of the month.
I would take those LR forecasts with a fistful of salt if the EURO were not in a similar camp. The Pacific side is going to be absolutely torched and obliterated, and the Fram export is only going to get worse as a legit dipole sets up.
This is the year, folks!