IJIS

[abbottisgone]

Thanks Espen,
We appear to be rather close to the extent amount where the next runner-up (2015) started to seriously slow down its decline.
I wonder if 2016 will follow suit.

There are three reasons why this probably will not happen:
1.  DMI  80N+ graph shows May as much colder in 2015 than 2016 so there will  be more warmth in the ocean this year.
2.  2015 was only leading the pack in extent decline last year, area was only third or fourth lowest. This meant the ice was more compact and there was less capacity for albedo feedback. 2016 is well ahead on both area and extent.
3. 2016 has relatively more thin ice compared to 2015 as shown in the graph below so there is more ice ready to melt out now than in 2015.

Nice graph!

[Rob Dekker]

Guys, is IJIS down ?
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/vishop-extent.html?N
I have not been able to connect today.

[abbottisgone]

Guys, is IJIS down ?
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/vishop-extent.html?N
I have not been able to connect today.

It would appear so but you should never trust an iPad 

[Rob Dekker]

Guys, is IJIS down ?
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/vishop-extent.html?N
I have not been able to connect today.

It would appear so but you should never trust an iPad 

I'm not running an iPad. [edit] are you ?

[Neven]

The spreadsheet doesn't pop up for me either.

[oren]

Seems the whole site is down. As if the NSIDC troubles weren't enough.

[marktime]

Have you read this abbotisgone? Your factless comments and your longwinded signoff are becoming irritating.

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1562.msg0/topicseen.html#new

[Andreas T]

Have you read this abbotisgone? Your factless comments and your longwinded signoff are becoming irritating.

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1562.msg0/topicseen.html#new

+1

[Gray-Wolf]

I think the god's don't want us to see what is going on up there this season!!!!

[AbruptSLR]

Sleepy,

All that I am really saying is that we are still in the Spring Barrier for projecting ENSO trends, so the POAMA Nino 3.4 projection is possible.  In a worse case scenario, the Nino 3.4 would drop below -0.5C until late July and then cyclones could push the warm Nino 4 temps back into the Eastern Eq. Pac. through the end of the year.  In such a worse case scenario warm air might advect northward into the Arctic Basin through late July; which might then set-up conditions for a GAC of 2016 by early August, and then as no La Nina would occur the GMST departures would be extra high because of the Arctic Amplification that it would speculatively receive on top of the residual heat from our recent Super El Nino.  While I do not know whether such a worse case scenario will actually happen, it does seem like a real possibility.

Very Best,
ASLR

The attached plot shows the TAO 5-day Eq. Pacific Subsurface Temp and Temp Anom issued May 29, 2016; which indicates that it is feasible to believe that the cooler deeper water could upwell in the Nino 3.4 area in early June resulting in Nino 3.4 below -0.5C; and then by late June, or early July, westerly wind bursts, WWBs, might push the warm surface waters in the Nino 4 region eastward, thus eliminating the possibility of a sustained La Nina.  Such a plausible scenario would both increase Arctic Amplification and would sustain/increase our anomalously high GMST departures resulting from: the recent Super El Nino, very positive PDO values, and high climate sensitivity to radiative forcing.

[pauldry600]

Shame the IJIS is down

Looking for real time sea ice charts

Came upon m.seaice.dk with near up to the minute....if there was something like that which had real time extent too that would rock my world

[oren]

Time to start a thread about El-Nino and Arctic sea ice? Just a thought.

[gregcharles]

With all the sea ice experts here, I'm sort of surprised no one knows what is going on with IJIS. I figured someone would know someone who knew someone who is right now beating on the server with a hammer and cursing in Klingon, the universal language of IT cursing. It's coming on to Monday morning in Japan though, so maybe the resolution will come soon.

On a general Google search, I found this site: http://www.downornot.net/ads.nipr.ac.jp.htm which claims the site is up and always has been. That seems to be based on them sending a request and getting a response. However the response is listed as No response. Moreover it said it took 204ms to get that response and 204 is actually the HTTP code for No Response. That just makes my head spin. Is someone mocking us? 

[AbruptSLR]

Time to start a thread about El-Nino and Arctic sea ice? Just a thought.

I will post any such future information in the  "2015/16 El Nino, the Aftermath" thread.

[Kica68]

Just found this tweet from ADS:

ADS_NIPR ‏@ADS_NIPR  · 9 hours ago 

Dear our users, https://ads.nipr.ac.jp  servers are in emergency maintenance.


https://twitter.com/ADS_NIPR

[southseas]

Greg, that 204ms was from the 28th (when it was up) all subsequent pings are listed as 0ms, no response and the conclusion it is definitely offline.

[abbottisgone]

Guys, is IJIS down ?
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/vishop-extent.html?N
I have not been able to connect today.

It would appear so but you should never trust an iPad 

I'm not running an iPad. [edit] are you ?

Yeh, they are good and bad!

I don't do the mobile phone thing and I can tell you I am like the most free person on earth but I didn't escape the iPad ... Could be worse I suppose! Now I have a proper excuse to get maccas for breakfast 

[budmantis]

Commenting for the first time this melt season, I have to agree with Marktime and Andreas T. about "Abbot is gone's" glib and mostly useless comments. Perhaps it is time to go back to lurking Abbot, at least until you have something informative to say!

[abbottisgone]

All right: settle down peeps!

I won't let the internet melt down and will resume lurk mode: I respect you all that much for caring about our kids kids kids kids arctic sea ice... if the sea ice goes under 7.42 mill by July 15- which I unfortunately think it may do having been shown such a figure by one of the posts on this forum- I shudder to think what the worlds future generations would do if they didn't have sites like this reminding them that people actually did care back then!

[lurk mode on]

[gregcharles]

Greg, that 204ms was from the 28th (when it was up) all subsequent pings are listed as 0ms, no response and the conclusion it is definitely offline.

Yes, I see those new pings, but they weren't there when I posted this morning. Also, it doesn't say what time zone it's reporting so I can't be sure*, but I believe that at the time of the 204 ms, 204 status (5/28 11:13 PM as it appears to me), the site was definitely down already.

* Please web designers, never do this. Reporting a time with no time zone is meaningless.

[DavidR]

Greg, that 204ms was from the 28th (when it was up) all subsequent pings are listed as 0ms, no response and the conclusion it is definitely offline.

Yes, I see those new pings, but they weren't there when I posted this morning. Also, it doesn't say what time zone it's reporting so I can't be sure*, but I believe that at the time of the 204 ms, 204 status (5/28 11:13 PM as it appears to me), the site was definitely down already.

* Please web designers, never do this. Reporting a time with no time zone is meaningless.

The time on that  website is US Pacific Time.

[Rob Dekker]

Greg, that 204ms was from the 28th (when it was up) all subsequent pings are listed as 0ms, no response and the conclusion it is definitely offline.

Yes, I see those new pings, but they weren't there when I posted this morning. Also, it doesn't say what time zone it's reporting so I can't be sure*, but I believe that at the time of the 204 ms, 204 status (5/28 11:13 PM as it appears to me), the site was definitely down already.

Greg, that site states "no response" on the 5/28 11:13 PM ping, so it seems you are right.

[Neven]

Message by new commenter released:

Just found this tweet from ADS:

ADS_NIPR ‏@ADS_NIPR  · 9 hours ago 

Dear our users, https://ads.nipr.ac.jp  servers are in emergency maintenance.


https://twitter.com/ADS_NIPR

[Jim Hunt]

The web site may be down, but the data's still flowing. These are the "high res" AMSR2 numbers via Wipneus and the University of Hamburg:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-graphs/

[Neven]

I'm building a special underground bunker for Wipneus, to make sure we have at least one reliable source of info. 

[Shared Humanity]

How much longer for this 2016 lead to be maintained before it becomes apparent we are heading for an historic finish?

[gregcharles]

The web site may be down, but the data's still flowing. These are the "high res" AMSR2 numbers via Wipneus and the University of Hamburg:

Wow, so we left it at 10.6 million km2 on the 27th, in a mini-lull, and by the 29th it fell to ~10.4 (eyeballing from the graph)? That would be two straight centuries. 

Greg, that site states "no response" on the 5/28 11:13 PM ping, so it seems you are right.

Right, that was my original point. At the the time it reported 'No response', but said the site was up.

[Jim Pettit]

How much longer for this 2016 lead to be maintained before it becomes apparent we are heading for an historic finish?

Well, the CFSv2 (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2seasonal.shtml) says never, calling instead for this season's large, negative sea ice anomaly to all but disappear entirely over the next two months, with August and September actually coming in *above* climatology:





Of course, the Arctic is in an unstable transitional period, and weird things have happened. But, still, I'll be surprised and amazed--and more than a little relieved--if the CFS comes to pass...

[Juan C. García]

How much longer for this 2016 lead to be maintained before it becomes apparent we are heading for an historic finish?

Well, the CFSv2 (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2seasonal.shtml) says never, calling instead for this season's large, negative sea ice anomaly to all but disappear entirely over the next two months, with August and September actually coming in *above* climatology:

Of course, the Arctic is in an unstable transitional period, and weird things have happened. But, still, I'll be surprised and amazed--and more than a little relieved--if the CFS comes to pass...

I wrote about this back in March.

Image September being ice-free four years in a row, but then the fifth year it isn't. IPCC: Arctic not ice-free?   

From my point of view, there are several official sites that they continue to be completly misleading. If NOAA has a site that forecast 6+ million for September 2016, it is an official site that it is misleading, but it is not the only one.

The NSIDC graphs that only look at extent, not volume, but they made a trend and then implicity they make a forecast on when there is going to be an ice-free Arctic, are others that are misleading.

And of course, it seems that is politically easier to change the definition of ice-free Arctic, from less than one million km2 in extent, to 5 consecutive years with the same definition, than to recognize that the IPCC models are wrong  in general.

We have to say it loud and clear, the new IPCC definition of ice-free Arctic is unacceptable!

I invite to vote on the following poll:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1559.0.html

[werther]

Thanks, Jim, for the asmr-2 graph.

I'm reading 10.350 in it, so the pace is straight on. Fits with MODIS pics in the Chukchi, Kara, Labrador Seas...

[Jim Hunt]

Wow, so we left it at 10.6 million km2 on the 27th, in a mini-lull, and by the 29th it fell to ~10.4 (eyeballing from the graph)?

I was endeavouring to emphasise that my graph doesn't plot precisely the same metric as JAXA/ADS. The "high res" version was 10.48 km2 on the 27th.

The raw data is available from Wipneus' web site:

https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/data

[gregcharles]

I was endeavouring to emphasise that my graph doesn't plot precisely the same metric as JAXA/ADS. The "high res" version was 10.48 km2 on the 27th.

Oh, I'm sorry. I didn't pick up on that at all. In any case, looking at Wipneus's data file (Jaxa_AMSR2_L3_10km_Area_Extent-v0.0.txt) and guessing that Full Extent is the column I'm looking for, it does look like near a century drop from the 27th to the 28th, and the 29th data isn't there yet. I don't see the 10.48 number at all though, so I'm probably still confused and should just wait until JAXA gets its servers back up.

BTW, I love, love, love the phrase "in emergency maintenance" and will use it myself one of these days. I assume it involves fire extinguishers, but hopefully not chicken bones and/or holy water.

[swoozle]

ADS_NIPR ‎@ADS_NIPR

Thank you followers! We detected the problem of our servers. We found a wrong part in the machine.
 機械内部のハードウェアの障害でした。部品入手次第復旧させます。
8:52 AM - 31 May 2016

[Neven]

Great, let's hope they have things up and running soon. Thanks, swoozle (released your profile).

[Jim Hunt]

Oh, I'm sorry. I didn't pick up on that at all. In any case, looking at Wipneus's data file (Jaxa_AMSR2_L3_10km_Area_Extent-v0.0.txt) and guessing that Full Extent is the column I'm looking for, it does look like near a century drop from the 27th to the 28th, and the 29th data isn't there yet. I don't see the 10.48 number at all though, so I'm probably still confused and should just wait until JAXA gets its servers back up.

Jaxa_AMSR2_L3_10km is the "standard resolution" data. UH_AMSR2_3.125km is the "high res" data plotted in my graph above. The extent numbers for May 30th are 10.38 million km² for the former, and 10.28 million km² for the latter.

[6roucho]

And of course, it seems that is politically easier to change the definition of ice-free Arctic, from less than one million km2 in extent, to 5 consecutive years with the same definition, than to recognize that the IPCC models are wrong  in general.

We have to say it loud and clear, the new IPCC definition of ice-free Arctic is unacceptable!

But it does save the Arctic.
In the same way as rescinding daylight saving preserves your curtains.

[Jim Pettit]

ADS_NIPR ‎@ADS_NIPR

Thank you followers! We detected the problem of our servers. We found a wrong part in the machine.
 機械内部のハードウェアの障害でした。部品入手次第復旧させます。
8:52 AM - 31 May 2016

Great news. And the rest of the tweet in English for those wondering: "This was the internal hardware failure. Parts available as soon as the recovery."

Ok, then. ;-)

[Nick_Naylor]

Great news. And the rest of the tweet in English for those wondering: "This was the internal hardware failure. Parts available as soon as the recovery."

Ok, then. ;-)

I guess this will be translated on WUWT as "We will bring the server up again once the ice begins to recover."

[notjonathon]

Actually, it says, "up again as soon as we get the parts."

[DavidR]

Actually, it says, "up again as soon as we get the parts."

I guess the good thing  about this is that the problem lies with the webserver not the data collection side of the operation. So when they  do come up  we should get the missing  data quickly.

[Okono]

I guess the good thing  about this is that the problem lies with the webserver not the data collection side of the operation. So when they  do come up  we should get the missing  data quickly.

It's horribly off-topic, but all the technology in Japan is basically leftover from the 1980's the way suburbia hit 1962 and parked there.  All the hotel rooms still have wired ethernet, and apparently they're still running physical servers.

That said, this is probably not some small or interchangeable part, and it's likely something directly to do with satellite communications or first-pass data management.  If that is the case, we could be looking at an extended outage.

All that said, I would not be shocked to see the data impacted by this in some form.  I don't know how much caching and spooling they do, but probably lots, so the data is probably okay.

[pauldry600]

So apart from this outtage are there any other links to see extent in sq km per day

Im lost without these updates

Its like someone stole my sunshine

[Nick_Naylor]

You could start here:

https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/

[Meirion]

Not directly comparable, and anyhow, many of us are part of a secret cult of Espen worshippers

[pauldry600]

Thanks Nick I already use that

And Meirion I guess its not really a secret.

But I wish I lived in Northern Alaska then I could just get some measuring tape and calculate the ice meself.

The only other place to go is the melting forum but Im in meltdown.

Other places to look are NSIDC and Cryosphere map and uni bremen and m.seaice.dk and the graphs as you say. I wish there was a sticky just named websites for sea ice extent data

[Eli81]

So apart from this outtage are there any other links to see extent in sq km per day

Im lost without these updates

Its like someone stole my sunshine

Seriously.. On the first night without updates I thought I was going to wear out my F5 key.

*twitch* Worse than caffeine withdrawals.. 

I've consulted the great Google with many different queries, only to find that there appear to be no independent mirrors of the data anywhere on the vast intarwebs. A scary prospect indeed.

[Blizzard92]

Well looks some progress being made on their web-server... able to connect to the site now, but not access JAXA SIE data quite yet

Edit: Looks like we are back in business, but data file not updated!

[Sleepy]

The site is up again, csv file not updated yet though.

[DungeonMaster]

Edit: Looks like we are back in business, but data file not updated!

Profile released from moderation. Welcome in the forum!

[abbottisgone]

Not directly comparable, and anyhow, many of us are part of a secret cult of Espen worshippers

(..shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!)