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Tigertown

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2550 on: June 16, 2016, 07:21:33 AM »
I have not been on here that long, and don't carry a lot of weight with my opinion, but I have to agree with bbr2314. We have not seen the full brunt of what's going to happen this year. It's just getting started good and a lot of these feedback loops are starting out with more momentum earlier on.
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

Sourabh

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2551 on: June 16, 2016, 07:27:06 AM »
Jim,

Nice chart.

I think early June losses may continue to decline possibly due to the fact that there is no ice left to lose for that time period. The ice extent that would generally be lost during early June is either non-existent or getting lost during May.

It is as if there is some kind of monthly/weekly quota for ice in Arctic regions that is allowed to be lost during particular time period.

seaicesailor

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2552 on: June 16, 2016, 08:42:44 AM »
For all the talk about how the melt season has slowed to most pathetic ever & is destined to peter out as the ice remains completely intact, it sure seems odd that 2016 has taken the record for earliest to cross below 10M KM2.

Because there is something called first derivative

abbottisgone

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2553 on: June 16, 2016, 08:47:43 AM »
For all the talk about how the melt season has slowed to most pathetic ever & is destined to peter out as the ice remains completely intact, it sure seems odd that 2016 has taken the record for earliest to cross below 10M KM2.

Because there is something called first derivative
... meaning?
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abbottisgone

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2554 on: June 16, 2016, 08:52:38 AM »
For all the talk about how the melt season has slowed to most pathetic ever & is destined to peter out as the ice remains completely intact, it sure seems odd that 2016 has taken the record for earliest to cross below 10M KM2.
Yes, from my amatuer eyes it would seem 50K losses are back in fashion: meaning the normality of calamity is back  :o :o :o :o :o
..
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bbr2314

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2555 on: June 16, 2016, 10:14:37 AM »
The first derivative is irrelevant here. The slowdown was caused by weather forcing the pack to expand while losing compaction.

DMI shows very warm waters quickly intruding and initiating bottom melt across all peripheral seas by D5 and the effects are very serious.

The most dramatic change will be on the Atlantic edge as the last of the junk ice away from the main pack is obliterated by the same bottom melt.

The next several days should bring a few 100K+ drops, possibly one larger, and that sets the stage for a catastrophic July. I think we have come to about the closest 2016 will get to 2012 before once again heading wayyyy south.

What's more, the record-early open waters that far north are now fueling large increases in surface temps as the ocean sucks up the sun's energy. Parts of the Alaskan shoreline are nearing 50F. That's ample energy (and growing) for multiple GACs this year.



Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2556 on: June 16, 2016, 01:39:50 PM »
For all the talk about how the melt season has slowed to most pathetic ever & is destined to peter out as the ice remains completely intact, it sure seems odd that 2016 has taken the record for earliest to cross below 10M KM2.

Not that "odd" at all, given the massive lead 2016 had going into June. And I don't know about "most pathetic ever", either. It's simply notable that this month has seen very tepid extent loss when compared to previous years:


Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2557 on: June 17, 2016, 05:22:12 AM »
IJIS:

9,931,177 km2(June 16, 2016)
Have a ice day!

pauldry600

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2558 on: June 17, 2016, 12:56:30 PM »
The Go switch has been pressed

jplotinus

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2559 on: June 17, 2016, 01:18:27 PM »
Looks like 2016 remains lowest after absorbing 2012's 'best shot' 😮

DavidR

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2560 on: June 18, 2016, 03:46:13 AM »
Looks like 2016 remains lowest after absorbing 2012's 'best shot' 😮
Currently 2011 is lower than 2012 and will continue in a tussle with  2012 for the remainder of the month.  On the 21st,  2010 takes over as lowest  on record and remains lowest into July.
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2561 on: June 18, 2016, 09:58:34 AM »
IJIS:

 9,870,723 km2(June 17, 2016)
Have a ice day!

Rob Dekker

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2562 on: June 19, 2016, 04:31:21 AM »
Quite unreal, but IJIS is down again.
This time, DNS on  https://ads.nipr.ac.jp  is not resolving.

Hopefully they just changed their IP address, in which case it should be back within 24 hours.
This is our planet. This is our time.
Let's not waste either.

maltose

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2563 on: June 19, 2016, 06:06:43 AM »
They said it would be down on June 19th for maintenance, back when they had the extended server trouble last month.

Sleepy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2564 on: June 19, 2016, 06:38:14 AM »
The unreal thing here, is that even Microsoft started playing with their cluster server twenty years ago. It was back then when they were being laughed at by UNIX and Netware.

epiphyte

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2565 on: June 19, 2016, 07:05:09 AM »
The unreal thing here, is that even Microsoft started playing with their cluster server twenty years ago. It was back then when they were being laughed at by UNIX and Netware.

Yes... and there are quite a few of us still laughing now!




Sleepy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2566 on: June 19, 2016, 07:50:05 AM »
3.12, wonderful! :)
As a former netware engineer and consultant I was forced to work with NT back then. A renamed workstation lacking server functionality and security. Restarting a server after updating a driver was a joke, and so on...

Nick_Naylor

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2567 on: June 19, 2016, 02:35:54 PM »
The site is up now, but no data for June 18 yet.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2568 on: June 20, 2016, 05:23:10 AM »
IJIS:

9,731,186 km2(June 19, 2016)
Have a ice day!

bbr2314

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2569 on: June 20, 2016, 05:35:23 AM »
I believe that graph has not yet updated?

Either way the lead with 2012 is now increasing yet again it seems. We have an abundance of very thin ice that's about to melt out entirely and I expect another May-like revving of the melt machine's impact on extent #s.

If DMI and HYCOM are accurate, we should begin seeing repeated days of 100K+ losses.

Tensor

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2570 on: June 20, 2016, 07:07:37 AM »
No, it's updated.   There simply isn't an update for June 18.    The June 17 value is 9,870,723 km2and the value for June 19th is 9,731,186 km2.  The was a two day drop of 139,537 km2. An average drop of 69,768 km2 for each day (18th and 19th)
Paid Insane Murdoch Drone

oren

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2571 on: June 20, 2016, 07:09:59 AM »
The numbers are updated, the chart isn't.

Sleepy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2572 on: June 20, 2016, 07:37:09 AM »
Both were updated at the IJIS site at the time of Espens post this morning.
06,17, 9870723
06,18, 9796445
06,19, 9731186

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2573 on: June 21, 2016, 05:23:08 AM »
IJIS:

9,636,570 km2(June 20, 2016)
Have a ice day!

oren

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2574 on: June 21, 2016, 07:13:53 AM »
95k, almost a century.

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2575 on: June 21, 2016, 10:44:46 PM »
I'm finally back home after nearly a month  in Croatia and Italy.  While gone, I was able to periodically check the charts but never had the time to follow the discussions.It will take me some time to go back and read all of the comments for the past months.

I have updated the charts I regularly maintain.  The  first chart shows 2016 Extent vs 2007, 2012 & 2015 as well as historical averages and record max/min losses.  To stay below 2012 will require losses well above average.  The average (2003-2015)daily lossfor the last 10 days of June is 86,480 Km2.

The second chart shows 2016 Extent losses vs the historical losses. From late march  until nearly the end of May losses were consistently tracking around 25% above average.  The recent slowdown in extent losses has been significant enough to leave 2016 less than 10% above the historical average.

As I stated above,  I haven't followed current events in the Arctic enough to make any prognostications as to whether 2016 still has a reasonable chance of remaining the lowest on record for the remainder of this melting season.



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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2576 on: June 22, 2016, 05:23:58 AM »
IJIS:

9,571,404 km2(June 21, 2016)
Have a ice day!

DavidR

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2577 on: June 22, 2016, 10:27:02 AM »
And that  means that 2016 has held the record for 84 consecutive days, which is longer than 2012 held it during its record run from July to Oct.  Is this more than trivia? Who knows.
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

Meirion

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2578 on: June 22, 2016, 11:07:52 AM »
Again going by 6-day CCI http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wxmaps/#ARC-LEA which suggests melt everywhere but Kara we could be below 9 on 27 June.

abbottisgone

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2579 on: June 22, 2016, 11:22:14 AM »
And that  means that 2016 has held the record for 84 consecutive days, which is longer than 2012 held it during its record run from July to Oct.  Is this more than trivia? Who knows.
I don't think it's less than trivial: I think it's another indicator lining up to shout some sort of economic reality!

Apparently renewable energy grew 10% last year.... Who knows what the diminishing limit on returns is for renewable energy?

Neven?
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Neven

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2580 on: June 22, 2016, 02:39:38 PM »
What is it? Want me to snip another of your off-topic, cryptic comments?  ::) ;D
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Shared Humanity

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2581 on: June 22, 2016, 11:43:35 PM »
What is it? Want me to snip another of your off-topic, cryptic comments?  ::) ;D

 ;D

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2582 on: June 23, 2016, 05:24:09 AM »
IJIS:

9,515,353 km2(June 22, 2016)
Have a ice day!

abbottisgone

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2583 on: June 23, 2016, 07:08:50 AM »
What is it? Want me to snip another of your off-topic, cryptic comments?  ::) ;D
DavidR is asking if the 84 day record is less than or more than trivial: I responded by saying that it is not , rather: it is in fact reinforcement of the market truth that the signs have been read and consequent action prepared for years.

Renewable energy went up 10% last year...this 84 day record is simply saying the big spenders know when to reinvest: NOW!

The 84 day record is not trivial, it is market panic realising itself!

I know government departments around the world are very worried about the multi-year sea ice this year and so do the markets!

You don't change money-making-plant in a heartbeat but cost curves have to be beaten and market leaders reap rewards.

That is not one bit cryptic..or off topic if I'm answering a question..
« Last Edit: June 23, 2016, 07:27:49 AM by abbottisgone »
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Neven

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2584 on: June 23, 2016, 09:08:34 AM »
Thanks for the explanation, aig.  :)

I wonder if there will be a century break this month (none so far). Last year there was just one, and none in 2008 and 2009.
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abbottisgone

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2585 on: June 23, 2016, 09:18:27 AM »
Thanks for the explanation, aig.  :)

I wonder if there will be a century break this month (none so far). Last year there was just one, and none in 2008 and 2009.
95 is pretty close but yeh, world governments maybe expressing a few sighs of relief right nowish.

I do need to explain myself (to myself  :o ::) ::)) sometimes.

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DavidR

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2586 on: June 23, 2016, 11:03:39 AM »
I wonder if there will be a century break this month (none so far). Last year there was just one, and none in 2008 and 2009.
60% of June century breaks in IJIS occur betwen the 23rd and 30th so there is plenty of time.  2007, 2013 and 2014 had five during this period.  2013 had five despite having  none before this date.
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Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2587 on: June 23, 2016, 01:47:13 PM »
I wonder if there will be a century break this month (none so far). Last year there was just one, and none in 2008 and 2009.

I'd put money on it. Roughly 85% or so of all IJIS century drops occur from the last week of June through the first week of August, and no year since 2009 has gone the last eight days of June without experiencing at least one (or as many as five). And the mean over the past six years has been three. So, yeah, I'd put money on it.

(While we're on the subject: 2013 had only seen two century breaks the entire year through June 25th, but then experienced 21 of them in a 19-day span 19 of them in a 21-day span--and the two that missed only just missed.)
« Last Edit: June 23, 2016, 07:21:32 PM by Jim Pettit »

seaicesailor

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2588 on: June 23, 2016, 06:24:34 PM »
Thanks for the explanation, aig.  :)

I wonder if there will be a century break this month (none so far). Last year there was just one, and none in 2008 and 2009.

Yes I put my money of it too :) Easy bet (low return), given the NSDIC numbers.

magnamentis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2589 on: June 23, 2016, 06:27:55 PM »
2013 ....... but then experienced 21 of them in a 19-day spanmissed.)

perhaps it's me but wouldn't that be the other way around ? 19 of them in a 21 day span ?

sorry if i didn't get it right, perhaps due to language barrier :-)

Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2590 on: June 23, 2016, 07:22:02 PM »
2013 ....... but then experienced 21 of them in a 19-day spanmissed.)

perhaps it's me but wouldn't that be the other way around ? 19 of them in a 21 day span ?

sorry if i didn't get it right, perhaps due to language barrier :-)

Yes, it does make a bit more sense. Fixed. Thanks.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2591 on: June 24, 2016, 05:28:14 AM »
IJIS:

9,425,629 km2(June 23, 2016)
Have a ice day!

abbottisgone

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2592 on: June 24, 2016, 06:44:05 AM »
I wonder if there will be a century break this month (none so far). Last year there was just one, and none in 2008 and 2009.

I'd put money on it. Roughly 85% or so of all IJIS century drops occur from the last week of June through the first week of August, and no year since 2009 has gone the last eight days of June without experiencing at least one (or as many as five). And the mean over the past six years has been three. So, yeah, I'd put money on it.

(While we're on the subject: 2013 had only seen two century breaks the entire year through June 25th, but then experienced 21 of them in a 19-day span 19 of them in a 21-day span--and the two that missed only just missed.)
WHICH YEAR HAD 5 may I ask??

 :o

... oh, reading backward it would seem 2013 is the answer!

 8)
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DavidR

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2593 on: June 24, 2016, 10:16:53 AM »

WHICH YEAR HAD 5 may I ask??

... oh, reading backward it would seem 2013 is the answer!

Also  2014 and 2007.
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

marktime

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2594 on: June 24, 2016, 11:13:32 AM »


... oh, reading backward it would seem 2013 is the answer!

 8)

For goodness sake why don't you read before you post this drivel. Abbot be gone.

abbottisgone

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2595 on: June 24, 2016, 11:40:25 AM »

WHICH YEAR HAD 5 may I ask??

... oh, reading backward it would seem 2013 is the answer!

Also  2014 and 2007.
Cheers, it's good to know this stuff!
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2596 on: June 24, 2016, 05:48:11 PM »
IJIS:

Will not be updated by me, due to a visit to an internet remote island during the weekend! 8)
Have a ice day!

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2597 on: June 24, 2016, 05:58:10 PM »
Quote
Will not be updated by me, due to a visit to an internet remote island during the weekend! 8)

Hopefully there will be sun, fun, and lots of margarita's.... ;D
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2598 on: June 24, 2016, 07:29:30 PM »
Espen 's out, fun, sun etc.
Count me out for a while too. Heading for France, Spain and Portugal, marriages (young friends), rioja, port and laid back Lisboa. See ya 'fin juli'....

jplotinus

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #2599 on: June 24, 2016, 07:53:05 PM »
IJIS:

Will not be updated by me, due to a visit to an internet remote island during the weekend! 8)

Have a great weekend. Like others, I'm here assuming your destination is a warm island and not somewhere in the CAA, like, say, Resolute or Cambridge Bay 😜
Also, a weekend off duty is fine, but people around here will suffer withdrawal symptoms if you are away longer than that. 😨