IJIS

[Juan C. García]

IJIS is now at 4,242,650 km2. This is below the 2011 and 2015 minimum, so 2016 is now the official third lowest on record. To reach 2007, 2016 have to drop 176,911 km2. It is equivalent to a daily drop of 14.7k km2, if it reach 2012 on September 12th. To reach the "Less than 4M km2" mark on the same date, it will have to drop 20.2 km2 on a daily basis.

Year           Minimum        Difference     Avg. Drop Sep-12
2007         4,065,739        176,911             14.7
2011         4,269,199         -26,549    
2012         3,177,455     1,065,195             88.8
2015         4,257,003         -14,353    
                 3,999,999        242,651             20.2

[BornFromTheVoid]

[Espen]

IJIS:

4,168,394 km²（September 1, 2016）down 74,256 km² from previous.

[budmantis]

Looks fairly certain that 2007 will be relegated to third place. Also, going below 4mk2 is highly likely.

[Tigertown]

Per visual, this year has one record all alone. On Espen's graph above, 2016 has the steepest angle of decline for the longest duration for this time of season.  For what it's worth.

[budmantis]

Checking the IJIS graph, 2007 wont reach 4.17mk2 until September 9.

[DavidR]

A final figure in the region of 3.850 Mkm^2 now seems likely. 

The maximum drop from this date is over 500K km^2 so even 3.65M is feasibe.  Even the minimum drop since 2002 will take the figure below 2007.  Only  the declines for 2004 and 2015 would keep the measure above 4M. 

At the current rate of decline a low decline from now seems unlikely.

[Juan C. García]

Seems that we will have to worry with the cyclones the following years. I was not expecting this impact, so late on the melting season. Or it is the 2016 Mega-Dipole?
http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2016/08/2016-mega-dipole.html

[budmantis]

Per visual, this year has one record all alone. On Espen's graph above, 2016 has the steepest angle of decline for the longest duration for this time of season.  For what it's worth.

I agree. Looks like 2008 had the second steepest decline.

[mmghosh]

Sometime ago someone mentioned a 5 year cycle on IJIS since 2007 -  lowest,  2 year recovery,  then 3rd lowest,  2nd lowest... does that say something about 2017?

[Pmt111500]

Sometime ago someone mentioned a 5 year cycle on IJIS since 2007 -  lowest,  2 year recovery,  then 3rd lowest,  2nd lowest... does that say something about 2017?

Well it was one of the reasons why I started to look on the potential El Nino connection to arctic ocean ice since 2005-6, 2010-1 and now 2015-6 were various kinds of El Nino years. This goes further back too, albeit not so clearly, the notable exeption being the 1982-3 for the big bang in the volcano. Katla is currently thought to go bang in Iceland in near future so that's one interesting thing to follow. If it does so next year we'll hear in 2018 some insignificant fear-mongering of new ice age from the usual suspects, i guess.

[binntho]

Katla is currently thought to go bang in Iceland in near future so that's one interesting thing to follow. If it does so next year we'll hear in 2018 some insignificant fear-mongering of new ice age from the usual suspects, i guess.

Katla has been ready to blow her lid for some time now - historically she's erupted every half century, but now it's been almost 100 years since the last one. But even the largest historical eruption in Katla (in 1755) is unlikely to have had any significant effect on climate - the dangers from Katla are not so much that the eruptions are in any way unusually large compared to many others, but that they happen in the middle of a fair-sized glacier, causing sever flooding in neighboring areas.

Katla is feminine, the name probably related to "kettle", an indication of how frequently she blows her steam.

[Pmt111500]

Katla is currently thought to go bang in Iceland in near future so that's one interesting thing to follow. If it does so next year we'll hear in 2018 some insignificant fear-mongering of new ice age from the usual suspects, i guess.

Katla has been ready to blow her lid for some time now - historically she's erupted every half century, but now it's been almost 100 years since the last one. But even the largest historical eruption in Katla (in 1755) is unlikely to have had any significant effect on climate - the dangers from Katla are not so much that the eruptions are in any way unusually large compared to many others, but that they happen in the middle of a fair-sized glacier, causing sever flooding in neighboring areas.

Katla is feminine, the name probably related to "kettle", an indication of how frequently she blows her steam.

Thanks for the info on Katla, bad for Iceland then, not so much good for the denialists.

On the 5-year periodicity, this might better be 4,67 year periodicity, derived from lunar influences that are a bit different on tides on the southern hemisphere and northern hemisphere (due the all-encircling Southern Ocean) I'll have to though leave further questions unanswered, since I'm still reading about this and this stuff is far from easy.

[BornFromTheVoid]

[seaicesailor]

Seems to me that 2007 is done very soon. Tomorrow IJIS may fall another 50k if it follows Wipneus UH-based calculation, then averaged with the preceding day IJIS-based drop. However, weather should halt these large drops sometime next week.

[DavidR]

Another day anything  like today (-78K) and 2007 is gone as well.
Even the minimum drop to the end of the season takes IJIS well below 2007.

[mmghosh]

Aren't multiple 75k+ drops pretty unusual for September?  The delta is pretty shallow in all the previous years AFAIK.

[budmantis]

2016 is now at 4.09MK2, between 20,000 to 25,000K2 above 2007's lowest point.

[BornFromTheVoid]

2016 is now at 4.09MK2, between 20,000 to 25,000K2 above 2007's lowest point.

24.4k to go to beat 2007.

Still 913k off the 2012 min.

[DavidR]

Aren't multiple 75k+ drops pretty unusual for September?  The delta is pretty shallow in all the previous years AFAIK.

There has only been three 75K+ drops in September;  95K on Sept 15 2003, 80K on Sept 7th 2008, and today,  since 2003. There have been six 70K+ drops in total with yesterday and today the first sequential ones. 2010 had three sequential days above 60K, but none of the other 7, 60K+ days were sequential  before today. 

[Espen]

IJIS:

4,090,129 km²（September 2, 2016）down 78,265 km² from previous.

[Shared Humanity]

Aren't multiple 75k+ drops pretty unusual for September?  The delta is pretty shallow in all the previous years AFAIK.

2016 melt season was characterized by widely dispersed ice, driven by lows. There is a lot of compaction potential.

[Darvince]

Don't forget that ocean melting is still continuing in the more peripheral regions i.e. the Wrangel arm.

[DavidR]

Only another 36K drop today, just  enough to take 2007 out  of the picture. 

And because 2012 didn't move on this day 36K closer to  2012! In just five days IJIS has got 250K closer to 2012. At that rate we should catch 2012 on the 16th.

[Sleepy]

According to uni-bremen today, we're already there (2012).

Edit; and that is not real. It's the same for Antarctica.

[Tigertown]

What the heck? How did they do that?

[Juan C. García]

According to uni-bremen today, we're already there (2012).

Edit; and that is not real. It's the same for Antarctica.

Problems with AMSR2? No kidding!!!!
Really, I hoope not!!!   

(I had enough with Donald Trump at Mexico  )

IJIS is updated now!    4.05M km2. Second place on record, breaking the 2007 minimum of 4.07M.

[Sleepy]

Don't know what's up, haven't looked into it. Maybe they decided to move at the same time as Wipneus? This is how the map looks.

[mmghosh]

Going back to the August IJIS poll, its striking to me that the median number of respondents seem to have got it about right. 

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1618.0.html

Certainly the 1st time in 3 years of trying to predict for me.  The predictions here are probably getting better with experience.

[Espen]

IJIS:

4,054,179 km²（September 3, 2016）down 35,950 km² from previous.

[Espen]

IJIS:

4,056,306 km²（September 4, 2016）up 2,127 km² from previous.

[Lord M Vader]

Well, the Arctic basin seems to get us on the heels and may not want to cross the 4M line until the minimum is reached... *LOL* But despite the recent uptick we should to 99% likelyhood cross the 4M line in a few days or so. Even the lousy 2006 managed to loose 150K from September 4 and up to the minimum. And the even lousier 2003 lost 110K and the absolutely worthless 2002 lost 60K so...

What fascinates me is the reluctant broken Wrangel arm that seems to hold its own against the outer sea.

[budmantis]

Well, the Arctic basin seems to get us on the heels and may not want to cross the 4M line until the minimum is reached... *LOL* But despite the recent uptick we should to 99% likelyhood cross the 4M line in a few days or so. Even the lousy 2006 managed to loose 150K from September 4 and up to the minimum. And the even lousier 2003 lost 110K and the absolutely worthless 2002 lost 60K so...

What fascinates me is the reluctant broken Wrangel arm that seems to hold its own against the outer sea.

So, even if this year does no better than 2002, we should see a minimum slightly below 4MK2.
The dry humor of your post gave me a good belly laugh. Thanks!

[Acts5v29]

A poster on another thread gave an explanation for these waverings - that 14.95% of ice cover equated to no ice cover, but a slight compaction to 15.05% would count as ice cover, giving a "flash" effect of sudden ice increase.

[budmantis]

A poster on another thread gave an explanation for these waverings - that 14.95% of ice cover equated to no ice cover, but a slight compaction to 15.05% would count as ice cover, giving a "flash" effect of sudden ice increase.

Hi Acts5v29. Based on my limited knowledge in this area, I'd say you are correct. I'm not sure about CT but NSIDC does use the 15% rule.

[seaicesailor]

Well, the Arctic basin seems to get us on the heels and may not want to cross the 4M line until the minimum is reached... *LOL* But despite the recent uptick we should to 99% likelyhood cross the 4M line in a few days or so. Even the lousy 2006 managed to loose 150K from September 4 and up to the minimum. And the even lousier 2003 lost 110K and the absolutely worthless 2002 lost 60K so...

What fascinates me is the reluctant broken Wrangel arm that seems to hold its own against the outer sea.

Big lol

[Shared Humanity]

I believe the reverse dipole could very well mean an early minimum for extent as the dispersed ice begins to migrate towards the Pacific side of the Arctic.

[Espen]

IJIS:

4,045,470 km²（September 5, 2016）down 10,836 km² from previous.

[Iceismylife]

According to uni-bremen today, we're already there (2012).

Edit; and that is not real. It's the same for Antarctica.

Have you seen that Antarctic weather?  They had plus 2 C winds blowing at hurricane force across Larson C ice shelf.  Makes me think it may be partly real.

[Sleepy]

Both maps have been corrected at uni-bremen and both poles saw an uptick in extent today.

[Espen]

IJIS:

4,022,615 km²（September 6, 2016）down 22,855 km² from previous.

[Darvince]

Will tomorrow be it?

[Tigertown]

It just became tomorrow where I am as of one minute ago, but yes I think so. An equal drop will do it. Don't know how long it will stay down, but there is melting still going on.
Is it not???

[Sleepy]

Tired of Toein' the Line? 


SST's by NCEP between Sept 02-06 attached, click to animate. Forecasts indicating falling air temps, so we might have to toe the line, at least this week out.

[Jim Pettit]

Were cumulative IJIS extent losses to duplicate any of the years from 2003 through 2015, we'd see a sub 4M km2 minimum (average: 3.88M), and that minimum would occur no fewer than three days (2008), and no more than 15 days (2005), from now, with an average of eight days, or September 14.

[Acts5v29]

Were cumulative IJIS extent losses to duplicate any of the years from 2003 through 2015, we'd see a sub 4M km2 minimum (average: 3.88M), and that minimum would occur no fewer than three days (2008), and no more than 15 days (2005), from now, with an average of eight days, or September 14.

I think it is possible to analyse things too much sometimes.

[Jim Pettit]

Were cumulative IJIS extent losses to duplicate any of the years from 2003 through 2015, we'd see a sub 4M km2 minimum (average: 3.88M), and that minimum would occur no fewer than three days (2008), and no more than 15 days (2005), from now, with an average of eight days, or September 14.

I think it is possible to analyse things too much sometimes.

Umm...sure. But what that non-sequitur has to do with my purely statistical comment completely escapes me. Care to elucidate?

[Espen]

IJIS:

4,017,264 km²（September 7, 2016）down 5,351 km² from previous.

[Espen]

Dramatic scenery from the North Pole, fragmented and rotten sea ice all around the pole
The X is the North Pole:

[abbottisgone]

Were cumulative IJIS extent losses to duplicate any of the years from 2003 through 2015, we'd see a sub 4M km2 minimum (average: 3.88M), and that minimum would occur no fewer than three days (2008), and no more than 15 days (2005), from now, with an average of eight days, or September 14.

I think it is possible to analyse things too much sometimes.

Of course, but there is ALSO something called method that separates us from those that still walk on all fours!

Jim has brought calculative rationale to the conversation and I concur,........ for one....