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Juan C. García

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3050 on: September 01, 2016, 05:55:21 AM »
IJIS is now at 4,242,650 km2. This is below the 2011 and 2015 minimum, so 2016 is now the official third lowest on record. To reach 2007, 2016 have to drop 176,911 km2. It is equivalent to a daily drop of 14.7k km2, if it reach 2012 on September 12th. To reach the "Less than 4M km2" mark on the same date, it will have to drop 20.2 km2 on a daily basis.

Year           Minimum        Difference     Avg. Drop Sep-12
2007         4,065,739        176,911             14.7
2011         4,269,199         -26,549    
2012         3,177,455     1,065,195             88.8
2015         4,257,003         -14,353    
                 3,999,999        242,651             20.2
« Last Edit: September 01, 2016, 06:19:51 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3051 on: September 01, 2016, 10:33:09 AM »
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3052 on: September 02, 2016, 05:29:51 AM »
IJIS:

4,168,394 km2(September 1, 2016)down 74,256 km2 from previous.
Have a ice day!

budmantis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3053 on: September 02, 2016, 05:33:34 AM »
Looks fairly certain that 2007 will be relegated to third place. Also, going below 4mk2 is highly likely.

Tigertown

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3054 on: September 02, 2016, 05:35:34 AM »
Per visual, this year has one record all alone. On Espen's graph above, 2016 has the steepest angle of decline for the longest duration for this time of season.  For what it's worth.
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

budmantis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3055 on: September 02, 2016, 05:50:27 AM »
Checking the IJIS graph, 2007 wont reach 4.17mk2 until September 9.

DavidR

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3056 on: September 02, 2016, 05:52:57 AM »
A final figure in the region of 3.850 Mkm^2 now seems likely. 

The maximum drop from this date is over 500K km^2 so even 3.65M is feasibe.  Even the minimum drop since 2002 will take the figure below 2007.  Only  the declines for 2004 and 2015 would keep the measure above 4M. 

At the current rate of decline a low decline from now seems unlikely.
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

Juan C. García

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3057 on: September 02, 2016, 05:59:29 AM »
Seems that we will have to worry with the cyclones the following years. I was not expecting this impact, so late on the melting season. Or it is the 2016 Mega-Dipole?
http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2016/08/2016-mega-dipole.html
« Last Edit: September 02, 2016, 06:07:19 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

budmantis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3058 on: September 02, 2016, 06:04:19 AM »
Per visual, this year has one record all alone. On Espen's graph above, 2016 has the steepest angle of decline for the longest duration for this time of season.  For what it's worth.

I agree. Looks like 2008 had the second steepest decline.

mmghosh

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3059 on: September 02, 2016, 07:04:17 AM »
Sometime ago someone mentioned a 5 year cycle on IJIS since 2007 -  lowest,  2 year recovery,  then 3rd lowest,  2nd lowest... does that say something about 2017?

Pmt111500

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3060 on: September 02, 2016, 07:34:50 AM »
Sometime ago someone mentioned a 5 year cycle on IJIS since 2007 -  lowest,  2 year recovery,  then 3rd lowest,  2nd lowest... does that say something about 2017?

Well it was one of the reasons why I started to look on the potential El Nino connection to arctic ocean ice since 2005-6, 2010-1 and now 2015-6 were various kinds of El Nino years. This goes further back too, albeit not so clearly, the notable exeption being the 1982-3 for the big bang in the volcano. Katla is currently thought to go bang in Iceland in near future so that's one interesting thing to follow. If it does so next year we'll hear in 2018 some insignificant fear-mongering of new ice age from the usual suspects, i guess.

binntho

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3061 on: September 02, 2016, 07:51:13 AM »
Katla is currently thought to go bang in Iceland in near future so that's one interesting thing to follow. If it does so next year we'll hear in 2018 some insignificant fear-mongering of new ice age from the usual suspects, i guess.
Katla has been ready to blow her lid for some time now - historically she's erupted every half century, but now it's been almost 100 years since the last one. But even the largest historical eruption in Katla (in 1755) is unlikely to have had any significant effect on climate - the dangers from Katla are not so much that the eruptions are in any way unusually large compared to many others, but that they happen in the middle of a fair-sized glacier, causing sever flooding in neighboring areas.

Katla is feminine, the name probably related to "kettle", an indication of how frequently she blows her steam.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

Pmt111500

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3062 on: September 02, 2016, 08:34:34 AM »
Katla is currently thought to go bang in Iceland in near future so that's one interesting thing to follow. If it does so next year we'll hear in 2018 some insignificant fear-mongering of new ice age from the usual suspects, i guess.
Katla has been ready to blow her lid for some time now - historically she's erupted every half century, but now it's been almost 100 years since the last one. But even the largest historical eruption in Katla (in 1755) is unlikely to have had any significant effect on climate - the dangers from Katla are not so much that the eruptions are in any way unusually large compared to many others, but that they happen in the middle of a fair-sized glacier, causing sever flooding in neighboring areas.

Katla is feminine, the name probably related to "kettle", an indication of how frequently she blows her steam.

Thanks for the info on Katla, bad for Iceland then, not so much good for the denialists.

On the 5-year periodicity, this might better be 4,67 year periodicity, derived from lunar influences that are a bit different on tides on the southern hemisphere and northern hemisphere (due the all-encircling Southern Ocean) I'll have to though leave further questions unanswered, since I'm still reading about this and this stuff is far from easy.
« Last Edit: September 02, 2016, 09:21:07 AM by Pmt111500 »

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3063 on: September 02, 2016, 09:24:09 AM »
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

seaicesailor

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3064 on: September 02, 2016, 09:39:16 AM »
Seems to me that 2007 is done very soon. Tomorrow IJIS may fall another 50k if it follows Wipneus UH-based calculation, then averaged with the preceding day IJIS-based drop. However, weather should halt these large drops sometime next week.

DavidR

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3065 on: September 03, 2016, 05:44:00 AM »
Another day anything  like today (-78K) and 2007 is gone as well.
Even the minimum drop to the end of the season takes IJIS well below 2007.
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

mmghosh

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3066 on: September 03, 2016, 07:05:17 AM »
Aren't multiple 75k+ drops pretty unusual for September?  The delta is pretty shallow in all the previous years AFAIK.

budmantis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3067 on: September 03, 2016, 07:14:30 AM »
2016 is now at 4.09MK2, between 20,000 to 25,000K2 above 2007's lowest point.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3068 on: September 03, 2016, 09:06:06 AM »
2016 is now at 4.09MK2, between 20,000 to 25,000K2 above 2007's lowest point.

24.4k to go to beat 2007.

Still 913k off the 2012 min.
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

DavidR

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3069 on: September 03, 2016, 10:02:04 AM »
Aren't multiple 75k+ drops pretty unusual for September?  The delta is pretty shallow in all the previous years AFAIK.
There has only been three 75K+ drops in September;  95K on Sept 15 2003, 80K on Sept 7th 2008, and today,  since 2003. There have been six 70K+ drops in total with yesterday and today the first sequential ones. 2010 had three sequential days above 60K, but none of the other 7, 60K+ days were sequential  before today. 
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3070 on: September 03, 2016, 11:17:43 AM »
IJIS:

4,090,129 km2
(September 2, 2016)down 78,265 km2 from previous.
Have a ice day!

Shared Humanity

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3071 on: September 03, 2016, 01:58:32 PM »
Aren't multiple 75k+ drops pretty unusual for September?  The delta is pretty shallow in all the previous years AFAIK.

2016 melt season was characterized by widely dispersed ice, driven by lows. There is a lot of compaction potential.

Darvince

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3072 on: September 03, 2016, 02:44:47 PM »
Don't forget that ocean melting is still continuing in the more peripheral regions i.e. the Wrangel arm.

DavidR

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3073 on: September 04, 2016, 05:27:00 AM »
Only another 36K drop today, just  enough to take 2007 out  of the picture. 

And because 2012 didn't move on this day 36K closer to  2012! In just five days IJIS has got 250K closer to 2012. At that rate we should catch 2012 on the 16th.
« Last Edit: September 04, 2016, 05:33:20 AM by DavidR »
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

Sleepy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3074 on: September 04, 2016, 05:34:06 AM »
According to uni-bremen today, we're already there (2012). ;)

Edit; and that is not real. It's the same for Antarctica.

Tigertown

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3075 on: September 04, 2016, 06:04:14 AM »
What the heck? How did they do that?
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

Juan C. García

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3076 on: September 04, 2016, 06:10:44 AM »
According to uni-bremen today, we're already there (2012). ;)

Edit; and that is not real. It's the same for Antarctica.

Problems with AMSR2? No kidding!!!!
Really, I hoope not!!!   :P

(I had enough with Donald Trump at Mexico  :P :P :P )

IJIS is updated now!  :)  4.05M km2. Second place on record, breaking the 2007 minimum of 4.07M.
« Last Edit: September 04, 2016, 06:46:12 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Sleepy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3077 on: September 04, 2016, 06:20:02 AM »
Don't know what's up, haven't looked into it. Maybe they decided to move at the same time as Wipneus? This is how the map looks.

mmghosh

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3078 on: September 04, 2016, 08:40:32 AM »
Going back to the August IJIS poll, its striking to me that the median number of respondents seem to have got it about right. 

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1618.0.html

Certainly the 1st time in 3 years of trying to predict for me.  The predictions here are probably getting better with experience.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3079 on: September 04, 2016, 11:22:39 AM »
IJIS:

4,054,179 km2(September 3, 2016)down 35,950 km2 from previous.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3080 on: September 05, 2016, 05:23:55 AM »
IJIS:

4,056,306 km2(September 4, 2016)up 2,127 km2 from previous.
Have a ice day!

Lord M Vader

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3081 on: September 05, 2016, 08:11:48 AM »
Well, the Arctic basin seems to get us on the heels and may not want to cross the 4M line until the minimum is reached... *LOL* But despite the recent uptick we should to 99% likelyhood cross the 4M line in a few days or so. Even the lousy 2006 managed to loose 150K from September 4 and up to the minimum. And the even lousier 2003 lost 110K and the absolutely worthless 2002 lost 60K so...

What fascinates me is the reluctant broken Wrangel arm that seems to hold its own against the outer sea.

budmantis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3082 on: September 05, 2016, 08:17:39 AM »
Well, the Arctic basin seems to get us on the heels and may not want to cross the 4M line until the minimum is reached... *LOL* But despite the recent uptick we should to 99% likelyhood cross the 4M line in a few days or so. Even the lousy 2006 managed to loose 150K from September 4 and up to the minimum. And the even lousier 2003 lost 110K and the absolutely worthless 2002 lost 60K so...

What fascinates me is the reluctant broken Wrangel arm that seems to hold its own against the outer sea.

So, even if this year does no better than 2002, we should see a minimum slightly below 4MK2.
The dry humor of your post gave me a good belly laugh. Thanks!

Acts5v29

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3083 on: September 05, 2016, 09:57:36 AM »
A poster on another thread gave an explanation for these waverings - that 14.95% of ice cover equated to no ice cover, but a slight compaction to 15.05% would count as ice cover, giving a "flash" effect of sudden ice increase.


budmantis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3084 on: September 05, 2016, 10:08:00 AM »
A poster on another thread gave an explanation for these waverings - that 14.95% of ice cover equated to no ice cover, but a slight compaction to 15.05% would count as ice cover, giving a "flash" effect of sudden ice increase.

Hi Acts5v29. Based on my limited knowledge in this area, I'd say you are correct. I'm not sure about CT but NSIDC does use the 15% rule.

seaicesailor

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3085 on: September 05, 2016, 11:23:14 AM »
Well, the Arctic basin seems to get us on the heels and may not want to cross the 4M line until the minimum is reached... *LOL* But despite the recent uptick we should to 99% likelyhood cross the 4M line in a few days or so. Even the lousy 2006 managed to loose 150K from September 4 and up to the minimum. And the even lousier 2003 lost 110K and the absolutely worthless 2002 lost 60K so...

What fascinates me is the reluctant broken Wrangel arm that seems to hold its own against the outer sea.
Big lol :D

Shared Humanity

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3086 on: September 05, 2016, 07:30:15 PM »
I believe the reverse dipole could very well mean an early minimum for extent as the dispersed ice begins to migrate towards the Pacific side of the Arctic.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3087 on: September 06, 2016, 05:23:34 AM »
IJIS:

4,045,470 km2(September 5, 2016)down 10,836 km2 from previous.
Have a ice day!

Iceismylife

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3088 on: September 06, 2016, 05:23:41 PM »
According to uni-bremen today, we're already there (2012). ;)

Edit; and that is not real. It's the same for Antarctica.
Have you seen that Antarctic weather?  They had plus 2 C winds blowing at hurricane force across Larson C ice shelf.  Makes me think it may be partly real.

Sleepy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3089 on: September 07, 2016, 04:33:28 AM »
Both maps have been corrected at uni-bremen and both poles saw an uptick in extent today.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3090 on: September 07, 2016, 05:23:20 AM »
IJIS:

4,022,615 km2(September 6, 2016)down 22,855 km2 from previous.
Have a ice day!

Darvince

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3091 on: September 07, 2016, 06:34:19 AM »
Will tomorrow be it?

Tigertown

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3092 on: September 07, 2016, 07:03:26 AM »
It just became tomorrow where I am as of one minute ago, but yes I think so. An equal drop will do it. Don't know how long it will stay down, but there is melting still going on.
Is it not???

« Last Edit: September 07, 2016, 07:08:41 AM by Tigertown »
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

Sleepy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3093 on: September 07, 2016, 08:59:47 AM »
Tired of Toein' the Line?  ;)


SST's by NCEP between Sept 02-06 attached, click to animate. Forecasts indicating falling air temps, so we might have to toe the line, at least this week out.

Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3094 on: September 07, 2016, 01:43:26 PM »
Were cumulative IJIS extent losses to duplicate any of the years from 2003 through 2015, we'd see a sub 4M km2 minimum (average: 3.88M), and that minimum would occur no fewer than three days (2008), and no more than 15 days (2005), from now, with an average of eight days, or September 14.

Acts5v29

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3095 on: September 07, 2016, 03:53:39 PM »
Were cumulative IJIS extent losses to duplicate any of the years from 2003 through 2015, we'd see a sub 4M km2 minimum (average: 3.88M), and that minimum would occur no fewer than three days (2008), and no more than 15 days (2005), from now, with an average of eight days, or September 14.

I think it is possible to analyse things too much sometimes.

Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3096 on: September 07, 2016, 07:49:21 PM »
Were cumulative IJIS extent losses to duplicate any of the years from 2003 through 2015, we'd see a sub 4M km2 minimum (average: 3.88M), and that minimum would occur no fewer than three days (2008), and no more than 15 days (2005), from now, with an average of eight days, or September 14.

I think it is possible to analyse things too much sometimes.

Umm...sure. But what that non-sequitur has to do with my purely statistical comment completely escapes me. Care to elucidate?

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3097 on: September 08, 2016, 05:31:49 AM »
IJIS:

4,017,264 km2(September 7, 2016)down 5,351 km2 from previous.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3098 on: September 08, 2016, 09:17:05 PM »
Dramatic scenery from the North Pole, fragmented and rotten sea ice all around the pole
The X is the North Pole:
Have a ice day!

abbottisgone

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3099 on: September 09, 2016, 04:14:38 AM »
Were cumulative IJIS extent losses to duplicate any of the years from 2003 through 2015, we'd see a sub 4M km2 minimum (average: 3.88M), and that minimum would occur no fewer than three days (2008), and no more than 15 days (2005), from now, with an average of eight days, or September 14.

I think it is possible to analyse things too much sometimes.
Of course, but there is ALSO something called method that separates us from those that still walk on all fours!

Jim has brought calculative rationale to the conversation and I concur,........ for one.... ;D
..
But I left school and grew my hair
They didn't understand
They wanted me to be respected as
A doctor or a lawyer man
But I had other plans..........