IJIS

[Jim Pettit]

Even with the nearly quarter-million km2 increase in extent over the past two days, IJIS month-to-date growth has nevertheless been shockingly low, especially compared to the previous four years (2012-2015). This graph illustrates just how odd this month has been:



It will, of course, be very interesting to watch things develop over the winter...

[BornFromTheVoid]

The 19th saw the first above average (2002-2015) increase in extent since September 27th. Despite extent growing by over 300k in the last 2 days, 2016 is now lowest on record for the time of year, 96k below the next lowest 2007.

[Espen]

IJIS:

6,153,229 km²（October 20, 2016）up 147,833 km² from previous and lowest measured for the date.

[Espen]

ijis:

6,265,154 km²（October 21, 2016）up 111,925 km² from previous and lowest measured for the date.

[Espen]

IJIS:

6,386,117 km²（October 22, 2016）up 120,963 km² from previous  and lowest measured for the date.

[Espen]

IJIS:

6,498,006 km²（October 23, 2016）up 111,889 km² from previous  and lowest measured for the date.

[abbottisgone]

I think the next 7 days are crucial: the trend never not flattens out over the next seven days!

[Shared Humanity]

Gap is growing.

[magnamentis]

Gap is growing.

this and another slowdown in re-freeze is imminent if that storm drops in at full force as predicted bringing the temps that were predicted.

[DoomInTheUK]

There's obviously still a lot of heat in the system, but we're only at the start of the freezing season. It'll be interesting to see if this slow start impacts on the maximum extent and volume numbers.

There's never a dull moment in the Arctic.

[jdallen]

There's obviously still a lot of heat in the system, but we're only at the start of the freezing season. It'll be interesting to see if this slow start impacts on the maximum extent and volume numbers.

There's never a dull moment in the Arctic.

I think its all about volume recovery and momentum.

Every day with reduced extent is a day where the ice in place loses an opportunity to add few CM of thickness over all.

It means ice not in place loses time available to de-salinate and harden.

In effect, each faction of extent which fails to expand will translate into a fractional reduction in eventual volume - 1/10th of a percent?  1/20th? - which while not significant on its own, like interest on debt, will accumulate far rapidly than we would like.

So, while the most visible metrics - extent and area - are changing pretty dramatically, what we can't see are changes in the quality of the ice and dynamics of heat exchange which I think are really bad, and may express themselves very dramatically next season.

Hope for a return of the Polar vortex!

-J

[Espen]

IJIS:

6,602,186 km²（October 24, 2016）up 104,180 km² from  previous and lowest measured for the date.

[Sleepy]

Hope for a return of the Polar vortex!

Hope is all there is.

[Espen]

IJIS:

6,680,987 km²（October 25, 2016）up 78,801 km² from previous and lowest measured for the date.

[Ninebelowzero]

Useful graphs.

As a purely mathmatical exercise plotting 5 year averages rather than decadal and including the 2010-2014 data plot can we extrapolate to give the 2010 decadal average a few years in advance?

[DoomInTheUK]

NBZ - surely that would only be useful if you believe that the next 4 years will be anything like 'average'. After the last few years I'd say the average for the decade would be "wildly unpredictable", and trending lower.

[oren]

I too keep wishing for a 2010s average line in the IJIS graph, just to help gauge how far the current year is from the trend. Once each year is completed, add it to the average. Unfortunately, I think this chart is generated by IJIS and not locally on this forum, so wishing doesn't help much.

[dnem]

Can't hurt to wish!

Here's 2016 data and the decadal averages, including the 2010s (to date).

(I hope this works).

[oren]

Can't hurt to wish!

Here's 2016 data and the decadal averages, including the 2010s (to date).

(I hope this works).

Thank you!!

[Lennart van der Linde]

Great!

[Ninebelowzero]

So just  three years waiting to see if the 'purple sag'  breaks four million.

That's a lot of popcorn.

[Lord M Vader]

Espen seems to be sleepy today! Only a modest uptick of 58K today and lowest on record. We are still below 7Mn km². However, we should cross the line in about 3-5 days, I suppose.

[Sleepy]

Nope, I am. 

[Jim Pettit]

Can't hurt to wish!

Here's 2016 data and the decadal averages, including the 2010s (to date).

(I hope this works).

And here it is in polar form:

[Espen]

IJIS:

 6,738,505 km²（October 26, 2016）up 57,518 km² from previous and lowest measured for the date.

[abbottisgone]

Jim, if I take out the yellow and grey lines I see a good trend. The first few averages touched each other but now they are entirely starting to separate.

(Maybe I should keep the grey?!?)

[Espen]

IJIS:

6,825,763 km²（October 27, 2016）up 87,258 km² from previous and lowest measured for the date.

[Sleepy]

This is weird.
Forecasted 10mb winds (2016/11/01/1200Z) via nullschool.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2016/11/01/1200Z/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-359.59,82.24,349

[DrTskoul]

Infinity loop.

[bbr2314]

Not weird! Without sufficient ice cover we see two or three strat vortices instead of a single cohesive one. That is because instead of one cohesive area of snow/ice, we now have two very large areas (the North America snowpack which is attached to the remnants of the multi-yr sea ice, and then the Siberian snowpack, which is now separated from the former by hundreds of miles of warm water).

I suspect this will only get worse in coming years.

In the more imminent future, DMI appears to show another side-effect of the ^ Nullschool map: the winds from the Bering Sea low look to result in extent *decreases* over the next few days.

[Sleepy]

By weird I only meant that it would be a really early PV-split. Low sea ice in Barents and Kara should favor a negative AO this winter. You might have your open ocean next year, bbr.

[bbr2314]

By weird I only meant that it would be a really early PV-split. Low sea ice in Barents and Kara should favor a negative AO this winter. You might have your open ocean next year, bbr.

Gotcha didn't mean to disagree just wanted to explain.

And for both your sake and mine I hope we do not get open ocean tho unfortunately it seems that way

[Espen]

Even in the tabloids the double vortex is reported (in Danish):

http://www.bt.dk/vejret/amerikansk-vejrforsker-er-ikke-i-tvivl-massiv-vinterkulde-rammer-danmark-om-kort-ti

[Pmt111500]

http://www.bt.dk/vejret/amerikansk-vejrforsker-er-ikke-i-tvivl-massiv-vinterkulde-rammer-danmark-om-kort-ti

Ah, could indeed be you'll get a finnish style start for the winter. That might bring the Barents/Kara sea temperatures down to Denmark latitudes. They're still open so i'd say some sleet during nights, but yes, time to find those vanterna(winter gloves, mittens?). At least bicycling is pretty nasty in that sort of weather

[BornFromTheVoid]

Extent now lowest on record by over 400k, and a remarkable 1.66 million below this time in 2014.
Also, the previous latest date the breach the 7 million km2 mark was Oct 24th in 2011 and 2012. We are still well below the 7 million mark as of the 28th.

[Espen]

IJIS:

6,840,628 km²（October 28, 2016）up 14,865 km² from previous and lowest measured for the date.

[oren]

Friggin' amazing.

[be cause]

  .. as expected ..

[ra3000]

To the Earth we are just "ants", but it is also true that our atmosphere is nothing but just a thin and vulnerable system to take care of. With so much pollutants thrown into the atmosphere everyday we are simply behaving like volcanoes, and it obviously has its consequences.
I think it would be interesting if near in the future scientists could carry a project to monitor temperatures in Mars at different latitudes. That will explain us at a wider range how Sun behaves and we will really understand how much we are responsible for the warming at high latitudes.

[plinius]

I can't see your point? We know how much we are responsible for what is going on in the arctic, and we also know that this cannot be caused by the Sun.

[DavidR]

With todays small rise of less than 33K the IJIS figure needs to have a record increase, above 3.13M,  between now and Dec 1st if it  is to lose the mantle of lowest on record by Dec 1st. The average increase over that time since 2003 is only 2.30 M, the lowest is 1.40 M

Its also worth noting that now that  the extent  goes from Greenland to Russia the average rate of increase has dropped from 125K a day to 75K a day because one area of expansion has disappeared.

[BornFromTheVoid]

ADS extent now lowest on record by over 500k

[Espen]

IJIS:

6,872,962 km²（October 29, 2016）up 32,334 km² from previous and lowest measured for the date.

[Tor Bejnar]

Espen's graph showing the 2016 curve appearing to approximate a curve that would be asymptotic to the 7 million kilometers squared line.  (No, this is not a prediction.)  I note the 2006 (I think) curve duplicated this appearance in November (only at about 9.5 M km²).  We all know what happened in 2007.

[abbottisgone]

Yes, Tor: you have picked out what I would call a chaotic signal indicated by strange sinusoidal graphology. Some sort of phase change, or shall we even say tipping point, is occurring in front of our very eyes methinks.

The real politik has to come into it eventually. (Tesla shares might be going up very soon!!)

[Sleepy]

Visualizing Tor's comment above, also adding 2011 and marking Nov 4. Using yesterdays graph just to be sure not to disturb anyone.

Neither of those years had a record early PV-split or the temps we see now.

Swedish tabloids are screaming about a "Wolf Winter".  You can roughly translate that into one Fimbulwinter.

[Espen]

IJIS:

6,921,148 km²（October 30, 2016）up 48,186 km² from previous and lowest measured for the date.

[Sleepy]

Comparing SSTA for October 30 in 2014, 2015 and 2016.

[Tensor]

Nice work Sleepy.

Gives some insight to a partial reason for the low and slow ice expansion. 

[abbottisgone]

Personally, I don't want to see 2017!!