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Tigertown

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3400 on: November 18, 2016, 04:08:37 PM »
Does anybody know if there have been drops during this time of year in the past?

There was a drop from December 30th, 2015 to January 2nd, 2016. Other than that one, I am not sure it happened before.

Also on November 17-19, 2015.

Juan, do you have the numbers on those drops?
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Tigertown

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3401 on: November 18, 2016, 04:16:59 PM »
His is zoomed in.  Look at the one in reply 822 in the 2016/2017 freezing season thread.

OK, now I've looked at that.  I'm still not seeing the same sort of drop in December 2015.  Why in fact would zooming out reveal more detail?  ??? 

What's happening now still seems unprecedented.

I meant zoomed in as to the time covered in the graph. It might be possible to get a better idea on the interactive graph at the JAXA site. As far as just getting the numbers, Juan C. Garcia probably has them. And, you may be right.
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

Juan C. García

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3402 on: November 18, 2016, 05:01:59 PM »
His is zoomed in.  Look at the one in reply 822 in the 2016/2017 freezing season thread.

OK, now I've looked at that.  I'm still not seeing the same sort of drop in December 2015.  Why in fact would zooming out reveal more detail?  ??? 

What's happening now still seems unprecedented.

I meant zoomed in as to the time covered in the graph. It might be possible to get a better idea on the interactive graph at the JAXA site. As far as just getting the numbers, Juan C. Garcia probably has them. And, you may be right.

I just zoomed on the ADS (IJIS) graph, looking at the numbers that the graph gives when you point the line. It is possible to find the drops easily if I download the data. Unfortunately, I tried some minutes ago and the ADS server is down, so it will be on another time.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

magnamentis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3403 on: November 18, 2016, 07:37:52 PM »
it seems less and less probable that the merge of this years curve with other years will happen till mid december as suggested by some, if at all :-)

on the other hand the moment we get more quiet winter conditions for an extended period extent will probably increase rapidly in mid winter while that doesn't mean much for volume and thickness and therefor the impact of what's happening on the next melting season.
« Last Edit: November 18, 2016, 11:13:44 PM by magnamentis »

Crocodile23

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3404 on: November 18, 2016, 10:17:56 PM »
IJIS:

8,418,099 km2(November 17, 2016)down 46,717 km2  from previous and lowest measured for the date.

Hi, since this: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent link seems to be offline and redirects to twitter, where did you get this diagram?

magnamentis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3405 on: November 18, 2016, 11:14:51 PM »
probably before it went offline and you can get similar data from here:

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

pauldry600

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3406 on: November 19, 2016, 09:24:18 AM »
Is IJIS down

Did Trump blow it up?

Sleepy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3407 on: November 19, 2016, 11:47:01 AM »
No, ISIS did that. While beeing unaware of the name change, they claimed copyright infringement due to a substantially similar name, also claiming it was a useless metric to publish. While they do concur with Mr Trump when it comes to the grand hoax of climate change, they will probably never express that offically.

Andre

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3408 on: November 19, 2016, 01:21:50 PM »
Is IJIS down

Did Trump blow it up?

On Nov 18, it shows another drop of 97,385 km2 and an extent value of 8,320,714 km2.

See:
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop.ver1/data/graph/plot_extent_n_v2.csv

Juan C. García

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3409 on: November 19, 2016, 01:39:32 PM »
On Nov 18, it shows another drop of 97,385 km2 and an extent value of 8,320,714 km2.

See:
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop.ver1/data/graph/plot_extent_n_v2.csv

IJIS is back. Thanks for the information, Andre!

This is insane!  :-\
Edit:  (2016 is 949k km2 less than 2012, being -now- 2012 the second lowest on record)

Another edit: Because IJIS uses a 2-day average in their numbers, I bet that tomorrow figure will also be low. Taking into account that 2012 will increase 135.5k from today to tomorrow, I think that the difference between 2016 and 2012 will be more than 1 million tomorrow.
« Last Edit: November 19, 2016, 02:06:48 PM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

oren

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3410 on: November 19, 2016, 01:43:50 PM »
Insane indeed. Should we change the subject of the thread to 2016/2017 melting season?  :o ??? ::)
(yes I know I know compaction)

Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3411 on: November 19, 2016, 03:33:24 PM »
On Nov 18, it shows another drop of 97,385 km2 and an extent value of 8,320,714 km2.

That is very, er, strange. If that number sticks, that's the largest one-day extent loss seen in the months of September, October, November, or December in at least the last ten years.

November-to-date, 2012 saw the second smallest extent average with 8.48M km2. 2016 is currently at 7.97M.

I still expect extent to finally realize it's almost December and start rocketing upwards towards the mean. But, still; most recent Decembers have seen roughly 2 million square kilometers of extent added, but right now reaching that mean would require an increase of roughly four million, or nearly 100k a day for the next six weeks.I don't know if that's possible.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3412 on: November 19, 2016, 03:39:38 PM »
IJIS:

8,320,714 km2(November 18, 2016)down 97,385 km2  from previous and lowest measured for the date.
« Last Edit: November 19, 2016, 03:45:23 PM by Espen »
Have a ice day!

Magma.

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3413 on: November 19, 2016, 05:52:32 PM »
IJIS:

8,320,714 km2(November 18, 2016)down 97,385 km2  from previous and lowest measured for the date.

This is 856,000 km2 below the previous record low for the date (2012). And Antarctic sea ice extent is now almost 1.5 million km2 below *its* previous record low for the date (1986).

After a certain point 'shocking' isn't a strong enough word.

oren

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3414 on: November 19, 2016, 07:13:57 PM »
The probability of catching up to the coming 2006 stall has gone  down considerably.

OldLeatherneck

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3415 on: November 19, 2016, 11:02:48 PM »
It's been a few months since I've posted anything on the Forum.  Now that the US election is over, I've decided to jump back into the conversation.

With IJIS Extent so far below other years, I thought I'd start looking at what we may be looking at for the eventual maximum next February or March. although, it  is far too early to make any  firm projections or predictions at this time.  The table below shows the total gain from November 18th (2003 - 2015) until the following year's annual maximum. 

The AVG gain was 4,679,516 Km2
The MAX gain, in 2012, was 5,254,090 Km2
The MIN gain, in 2014, was 4,093,130 Km2

If the remainder of the 2016/2016 refreeze season were to follow the average gains,from Nov. 18th, the annual maximum would be  13,000,230 Km2 8th,

Record MIN gains, from Nov. 18th would result in annual MAX of 12,413,844 Km2
 
Record MAX gains, from Nov. 18th, would result in annual MAX of 13,574,804 Km2

« Last Edit: November 19, 2016, 11:59:37 PM by OldLeatherneck »
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charles_oil

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3416 on: November 19, 2016, 11:53:47 PM »
Record MIN gains, from Nov. 18th would result in annual MAX of 13,574,804 Km2
Record MAX gains, from Nov. 18th, would result in annual MAX of 12,413,844 Km2

I think these are reversed ??  Top would be MAX gains, bottom - MIN gains.

OldLeatherneck

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3417 on: November 20, 2016, 12:03:22 AM »
Record MIN gains, from Nov. 18th would result in annual MAX of 13,574,804 Km2
Record MAX gains, from Nov. 18th, would result in annual MAX of 12,413,844 Km2

I think these are reversed ??  Top would be MAX gains, bottom - MIN gains.

Charles,

Thank You for noticing that.  Somehow the aging process kicks in and I make silly mistakes like that!

I've corrected the original post.
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charles_oil

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3418 on: November 20, 2016, 12:21:13 AM »
I'm no expert - but as we are already starting with a deficit I think even the record MIN in gains is going to be a stretch.... 

I suspect rather than looking at the graphs where we are clearly miles off the norms & standards a better predictive method at this stage would perhaps be to look at the likelihood of the different significant sea ice areas freezing up (or not) from this point on.  Sadly I think we are in a phase where a "subjective" analysis may be best.http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/Smileys/default/sad.gif

Andre

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3419 on: November 20, 2016, 05:06:54 AM »
The probability of catching up to the coming 2006 stall has gone  down considerably.

Looks like today's update is making it even harder to catch up. 3 days of losses in a row now.

JMP

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3420 on: November 20, 2016, 06:04:59 AM »
Why in fact would zooming out reveal more detail?  ??? 
Simply because Dec 30 was outside of the zoomed-in date range.

Yes, it actually dawned on me that must be the case a few hours after I had shut the computer off. 
  And, my apologies if I was being overly argumentative.   


 

JMP

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3421 on: November 20, 2016, 06:19:16 AM »
My only hope is that there is more compaction than... melting?  The numbers seem devastating.   

jdallen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3422 on: November 20, 2016, 06:52:43 AM »
I'm no expert - but as we are already starting with a deficit I think even the record MIN in gains is going to be a stretch....  <snip>
Not really; I think we are well within the envelope for not just max gains, but largest ever max gains.  Mind you, it won't be quality gains.

There is plenty of time for the heat to break, and even if it doesn't completely, we are still 5 weeks earlier than the Dec. heat of last winter.

The ice will form, and should come fairly close to the 2015/2016 numbers for max ice.

The ice will be thin, and volume, the real canary in our coal mine, will be very low.
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Pmt111500

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3423 on: November 20, 2016, 07:09:50 AM »
My only hope is that there is more compaction than... melting?  The numbers seem devastating.   

Yes, please let it thicken the rest of the winter. Kara Sea won't likely get thick though. In NH, half a million less than even I expected (and I think I've been more in the high side of cc here than most). the slow growth already in October was a surprise as is the strenght of this stall. The way stronger than normal Antarctic reaction to dissipating El Nino is yet another, thus my 'fubar'-comment in another thread.  :(

Cooling the outside by heat pump.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3424 on: November 20, 2016, 10:06:42 AM »
IJIS:

 8,302,669 km2
(November 19, 2016)down 18,045 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Juan C. García

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3425 on: November 20, 2016, 10:48:30 AM »
IJIS:

8,302,669 km2
(November 19, 2016)down 18,045 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.

According to ADS (NIPR), 2016 Arctic sea ice extent  is now 1,102,391 km2 under 2012 ASIE, being -now- 2012 the second lowest on record.  :o

                           (figures in 106 km2)
month   date   2012   2016    2012-2016
  11        10      8.46    8.14         0.33
  11        11      8.54    8.29         0.25
  11        12      8.64    8.36         0.28
  11        13      8.71    8.40         0.32
  11        14      8.79    8.43         0.36
  11        15      8.91    8.46         0.45
  11        16      9.06    8.46         0.60
  11        17      9.18    8.42         0.76
  11        18      9.27    8.32         0.95
  11        19      9.41    8.30         1.10

From November 11th 2016 to November 19th, the ASIE increased just 14,293 km2.
« Last Edit: November 20, 2016, 11:03:38 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3426 on: November 20, 2016, 02:15:15 PM »
ADS-NIPR Extent:
8,320,714 km2 (19 November)
Down 18,045 km2 (-0.21%) from previous day.
Down 57,569 km2  (-0.69%) over past seven days (daily average: -8,224 km2). (NOTE: first week-long net decrease since 7-day period ending September 09)
Up 1,335,811 km2  (10.92%) for November (daily average: 70,306 km2).
1,844,273 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
1,136,544 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
1,288,819 km2 below 2015 value for this date.
1,102,391 km2 below 2012 value for this date.
Lowest year-to-date (01 January - 19 November) average.
Lowest November to-date average.
Lowest value for the date.
159 days this year (49.23% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.
56 days (17.34%) have recorded the second lowest.
67 days (20.74%) have recorded the third lowest.
282 days in total (87.31%) have been among the lowest three on record.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3427 on: November 21, 2016, 04:57:32 AM »
IJIS:

 8,403,027 km2
(November 20, 2016)up 100,358 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3428 on: November 22, 2016, 05:02:28 AM »
IJIS:

8,601,015 km2(November 21, 2016)up 197,988 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Juan C. García

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3429 on: November 22, 2016, 05:05:45 AM »
IJIS:
8,403,027 km2(November 20, 2016)up 100,358 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.

8,601,015 km2(November 21, 2016)up 197,988 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.

Great!  :)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Cato

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3430 on: November 22, 2016, 11:00:28 AM »
...As per the forecast I guess  ;) Synoptic configuration has changed dramatically up there, and a very cold HP is due to persist for quite a few days. Easy to foresee a quick recovery in the Kara Sea and a general cooling overall. Okhotsk is colder than usual and will keep being cold in the next days, while Hudson is warmer. There's a long way to go before reaching 2006 but at least there looks to be some competition now...

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3431 on: November 23, 2016, 04:58:12 AM »
IJIS:

8,709,980 km2(November 22, 2016)up 108,965km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Juan C. García

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3432 on: November 23, 2016, 07:11:05 AM »
407k km2 in four days (3 increases). I am not sure if it is a record, but surely, SIE is growing fast!

I am going to sleep better now!  :)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3433 on: November 23, 2016, 01:41:28 PM »
Well, I have wake up and I have to say that 2016 has still a long way to go up.
These are the difference between 2016 and the other years. Figures in km2 and they are order, from the lesser difference to the greater difference:

2006       825,256
2010       895,439
2012       956,736
2015    1,020,087
2011    1,172,755
2007    1,280,495
2009    1,337,762
2014    1,353,074
2003    1,376,416
2013    1,386,944
2005    1,582,590
2008    1,688,522
2004    1,715,296
2002    1,962,114
2001    2,156,481
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

pauldry600

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3434 on: November 24, 2016, 12:02:23 AM »
While theres been some recovery in the Ice of late and will continue to be I cant help but think that the quiet Atlantic thus far is helping the ice.

Long Range forecasts...for what they are worth have been predicting a cold November and first half of December for most of Europe followed by a mobile Atlantic regime in late December and January.

This will more than likely slow the ice extent on Europes end at least meaning the hill climbs will flatten out considerably once more.

This will result in 2016 staying worst or 2nd or 3rd worst.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3435 on: November 24, 2016, 05:00:24 AM »
IJIS:

8,818,643 km2
(November 23, 2016)up 108,663 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Pmt111500

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3436 on: November 24, 2016, 12:52:15 PM »
Umm, that stall was not long enough in duration of what i've tought about this so expecting yet another one possibly at the 9.5-10M mark someone noted just recently.
« Last Edit: November 24, 2016, 01:00:15 PM by Pmt111500 »
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

Shared Humanity

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3437 on: November 24, 2016, 03:10:02 PM »
Quite impressive growth over the last few days. Eyeballing this chart, even if this pace of freeze were continued, it looks as if we may not catch up with any other years until mid December.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3438 on: November 25, 2016, 05:00:15 AM »
IJIS:

8,957,538 km2(November 24, 2016)up 138,895 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

DavidR

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3439 on: November 25, 2016, 11:38:11 PM »
The IJIS record for 2016 shown as std deviations from the 2002-2015 mean has been quite remarkable. For parts of the year the StdDev has been more than double that of the previous record.   The rapid decline in Apr/May and the slow increase in Oct/Nov suggest a that the melting season is extending.  The high record values have been given a negative value for clarity of the image.
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3440 on: November 26, 2016, 01:47:12 PM »
IJIS:

9,089,492 km2(November 25, 2016)up 131,954 km2  from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

oren

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3441 on: November 26, 2016, 02:53:01 PM »
Chances of touching the 2006 stall have gone up again. Thanks for the suspense.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3442 on: November 27, 2016, 10:57:06 AM »
IJIS:

9,223,883 km2(November 26, 2016)up 134,391 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Buddy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3443 on: November 27, 2016, 02:12:01 PM »
As Oren pointed out....2006 had a significant "stall" and we all know what happened in 2007.  The summer of 2017 will now likely be set up for the next step down.
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3444 on: November 27, 2016, 03:53:11 PM »
As Oren pointed out....2006 had a significant "stall" and we all know what happened in 2007.  The summer of 2017 will now likely be set up for the next step down.

Not sure but it will be fun to watch.  :o

Gray-Wolf

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3445 on: November 27, 2016, 04:16:38 PM »
D'ya know I'd only just put my fears, about 2017 possibly being the earliest possible return of the 'perfect melt storm synoptic', to bed ( see dedicated thread)  and now folk are linking early winter 06' events to link to another possible drop in record low Area/extent/volume in 2017????

I'm going to caution the  'cycle' watchers that things are now looking so messed up across the Basin that such cycles may now be broken?

I had to accept that this would probably be true of the spacing's between 'Perfect melt Storm' years themselves so maybe the lead up to those synoptics are also now too messed up to guarantee a repeat under the 'old ' forcings?
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ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
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OrganicSu

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3446 on: November 27, 2016, 05:32:36 PM »
...it will be fun to watch.  :o
I personally do not find it fun to watch what is happening in the Artic. It is not TV, with zero effects on you, I and all the wonderful creatures living on this planet who are in serious peril.

Shared Humanity

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3447 on: November 27, 2016, 05:45:23 PM »
...it will be fun to watch.  :o
I personally do not find it fun to watch what is happening in the Artic. It is not TV, with zero effects on you, I and all the wonderful creatures living on this planet who are in serious peril.

The emoji was intended to convey this comment to be snark. I have been pretty much terrified by AGW for a decade.

OrganicSu

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3448 on: November 27, 2016, 06:50:25 PM »
The emoji was intended to convey this comment to be snark. I have been pretty much terrified by AGW for a decade.
Dearest Shared Humanity,
My sincerest apologies. On my mobile it's hard to see emojis so I focus on the words. Of late I am angry which also causes blindness. I also don't understand all emojis. Sorry. Yours,

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3449 on: November 28, 2016, 04:57:44 AM »
IJIS:

9,338,262 km2(November 27, 2016)up 114,379 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!