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Bill Fothergill

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3550 on: December 10, 2016, 01:49:43 PM »
For a long time Vidaloo has been touting the use of averages and their extrapolation to predict a year-round ice free arctic a few years down the line, a very wrong approach when averaging numbers that have very different underlying physics, such as winter ice cover and summer ice cover. Looking at average July-September ice cover could give more insights.
Because he has a commercial interest on doing it
Really? What is it?

Yep, as with oren, I would like to know more background.

I eagerly await...

icy voyeur

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3551 on: December 11, 2016, 10:19:50 AM »
Looks OK.  This is an daily extent change anomaly map of all seasons from 1989 to current.  The first thing I did is fill in any data gaps with simple linear interpolation.  Then I expressed each day's extent as the percent change from the previous day's extent.  I then created a "baseline" by averaging the daily change for all years between 1989 and 2005 and smoothed that with a 5-day running average. 

Wouldn't it make more sense to apply the 5 day smooth first and then calculate the % change from prior day?

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3552 on: December 11, 2016, 11:54:19 AM »
IJIS:

10,573,160 km2(December 10, 2016)up 207,700 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Pmt111500

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3553 on: December 11, 2016, 11:55:55 AM »
IJIS:

10,573,160 km2(December 10, 2016)up 207,700 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.

Well that was fast.
Amateur observations of Sea Ice since 2003.

dnem

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3554 on: December 11, 2016, 02:28:48 PM »
Looks OK.  This is an daily extent change anomaly map of all seasons from 1989 to current.  The first thing I did is fill in any data gaps with simple linear interpolation.  Then I expressed each day's extent as the percent change from the previous day's extent.  I then created a "baseline" by averaging the daily change for all years between 1989 and 2005 and smoothed that with a 5-day running average. 

Wouldn't it make more sense to apply the 5 day smooth first and then calculate the % change from prior day?

Sure, it might well.  But I doubt it would change the baseline against which the % change was calculated very much.  I also played around with using just plain old deviations from the average km2 extent change but thought that expressing it as percent change to the current extent better highlights the changes that have gone on in recent years.  For example today's double century gain on top of the all time current low extent makes it a much bigger % increase than other late fall/winter double century gains in the data set.  I started playing around with the data to get at the question of whether or not extent gains and loses have gotten noisier in recent years.  Is the top beginning to wobble?  Yes, I'd say.

Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3555 on: December 11, 2016, 02:58:56 PM »
IJIS:

10,573,160 km2(December 10, 2016)up 207,700 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.

Even with that very large increase, 2016 is blowing away all other years in terms of annual average. Nothing else is even close:


jdallen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3556 on: December 11, 2016, 09:03:04 PM »
IJIS:

10,573,160 km2(December 10, 2016)up 207,700 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.

Well that was fast.
I'm thinking a bunch of that increase was Hudson.  It should be getting the effects of the breakout that's about to drop into the Mississippi valley & Great lakes in a day or so.
This space for Rent.

bbr2314

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3557 on: December 11, 2016, 10:07:45 PM »
IJIS:

10,573,160 km2(December 10, 2016)up 207,700 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.

Well that was fast.
I'm thinking a bunch of that increase was Hudson.  It should be getting the effects of the breakout that's about to drop into the Mississippi valley & Great lakes in a day or so.

Yes, you can see on NASA, Hudson is now gaining significant ice every day.Should be mostly covered shortly. But after that the gains may come to a halt as continued cyclonic activity limits ice formation (or results in outright loss) along both Atlantic and Pacific fronts (with exception of additional growth in Okhotsk + Baffin Bay).

icy voyeur

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3558 on: December 12, 2016, 01:04:51 AM »
Looks OK.  This is an daily extent change anomaly map of all seasons from 1989 to current.  The first thing I did is fill in any data gaps with simple linear interpolation.  Then I expressed each day's extent as the percent change from the previous day's extent.  I then created a "baseline" by averaging the daily change for all years between 1989 and 2005 and smoothed that with a 5-day running average. 

Wouldn't it make more sense to apply the 5 day smooth first and then calculate the % change from prior day?

Sure, it might well.  But I doubt it would change the baseline against which the % change was calculated very much.  I also played around with using just plain old deviations from the average km2 extent change but thought that expressing it as percent change to the current extent better highlights the changes that have gone on in recent years.  For example today's double century gain on top of the all time current low extent makes it a much bigger % increase than other late fall/winter double century gains in the data set.  I started playing around with the data to get at the question of whether or not extent gains and loses have gotten noisier in recent years.  Is the top beginning to wobble?  Yes, I'd say.

I have some background in data analysis. From my perspective, what you did was frankly wrong. It's foundational mathematics. Smoothing a derived metric rather than smoothing the original measurements is frankly wrong. Ask yourself "what is the point of smoothing?" and the underlying question, "what is the nature of noise in the data?".

The measures of ice extent include noise, both as measurement artifacts and, depending on ones perspective, weather. Smoothing by averaging minimizes that noise. If you smooth a derived metric, like daily percent change, you are effectively smoothing the derivative. It doesn't commute.

It's trivially simple to manipulate data within the equivalent of a spreadsheet but you do need to ask yourself what is it you are actually doing. And smoothing, in particular, should not be applied capriciously. Maybe I'm missing something but if so I'd expect you to be able to elucidate a reason why smoothing the derivative rather than the original data made sense for this instance when it is generally known to be a flawed procedure.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3559 on: December 12, 2016, 05:03:37 AM »
IJIS:

10,751,338 km2(December 11, 2016)up 178,178 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

dnem

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3560 on: December 12, 2016, 03:48:33 PM »
 
[/quote]

Wouldn't it make more sense to apply the 5 day smooth first and then calculate the % change from prior day?
[/quote]

I have some background in data analysis. From my perspective, what you did was frankly wrong. [/quote]

Totally open to suggestions.  I tried a bunch of ways, smoothed and not.  I was simply looking for a different way to visualize the data synoptically as I was getting sick of looking at the piled up line graphs.  I find them hard to get anything from when there are so many lines.  I wanted a way to quickly and visually see when during the the melt seasons the ice was melting faster/slower than some sense of "normal."  I used the five day smooth from 1989 to 2005 as the normal.  Honestly it doesn't change that much whether you look at deviations from the raw gains/losses for the day or from the % change against the day before, smoothed or unsmoothed.  It's just a visualization, not any sort of test.

Cato

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3561 on: December 12, 2016, 05:07:42 PM »
Quick increase of extension, as per the forecast. In the next few days the recurring synoptic pattern will be reinstated, with consequent massive advection of warm air from both Atlantic and Pacific into the CAB.

In spite of this, extension should keep growing significantly, for the contribution of Hudson, Ohotsk and the smaller contributions from Davis Streit and Kara (east of Novaya Zemlja).

I confirm my view that by the 20th of December, 2016 might no longer be at the top...

magnamentis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3562 on: December 12, 2016, 06:22:09 PM »
I confirm my view that by the 20th of December, 2016 might no longer be at the top...

i hold agains it again as i did for 15th of december similar forecast. one would have to look at the numbers and not only at a graph where things appear to be closer than they really are. there will be no recovery of the needed kind this year IMO while a 40+ days forecast is a bit difficult to make, not more than a gut feeling that might be wrong. it's just that the remaining open waters that were already frozen in earlier years are still to warm to just re-freeze in bulk so to say and then the air temps as well are not in favour of a "passing lane" refreeze IMO. let's see, always interesting to compare reality with early impressions, at least for those who are interested to learn :-)

game on

cheers
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Tigertown

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3563 on: December 12, 2016, 08:52:51 PM »
Sometimes you just need another perspective


Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3564 on: December 13, 2016, 05:02:37 AM »
IJIS:

10,853,038 km2(December 12, 2016)up 101,700 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

budmantis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3565 on: December 13, 2016, 05:58:08 AM »
Tigertown's perspective certainly adds contrast to the difference between this year's results versus the previous lowest extent, but the difference remains substantial regardless of the view.

Tigertown

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3566 on: December 13, 2016, 06:08:02 AM »
I kind of expect the extent numbers to catch up with previous years. It is thickness and volume that won't be able to do so.

budmantis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3567 on: December 13, 2016, 06:16:58 AM »
I kind of expect the extent numbers to catch up with previous years. It is thickness and volume that won't be able to do so.

You might be right TT, but as you say, the volume will not catch up. I normally don't follow the arctic happenings this time of year, but I have to say with the record low ice buildup, I've been keeping track.

magnamentis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3568 on: December 13, 2016, 05:35:34 PM »
I kind of expect the extent numbers to catch up with previous years. It is thickness and volume that won't be able to do so.

as i mentioned this is an open race without certain outcome and for the fun of it ( meaning it ) the perspectives can change on a daily base. a few more of those flattening bends and it's one and a few more of those recent up-turns it's the other. looking at the weather forecast on both sides i still tend towards the flatting while it really only takes around 0.7k per day to reach the previous lowest till the end of the month.

again for those interpreting more into this, it's an open race and for the fun of it to reason a bit back and forth. no serious forecast can be made IMO

cheers
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3569 on: December 14, 2016, 05:01:49 AM »
IJIS:

10,895,637 km2(December 13, 2016)up 42,599 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3570 on: December 15, 2016, 04:57:55 AM »
IJIS:

11,010,469 km2(December 14, 2016)up 114,832 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

oren

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3571 on: December 15, 2016, 07:08:58 AM »
Half a million in five days to finally lose the title, doable though not certain.

Tigertown

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3572 on: December 15, 2016, 07:13:41 AM »
Half a million in five days to finally lose the title, doable though not certain.

Should intersect 2015 and possibly 2012 around Dec. 22nd, give or take a day.

DavidR

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3573 on: December 15, 2016, 08:24:59 AM »
IJIS extent has now been lowest on record for 184 days this year meaning that more than half the days this year will be lowest on record. 

The variation from the 2002-2015 figures reached 5.04 std deviations on 20th Nov, and averaged 1.88 std devs for the year  compared with the previous record variation of of 2.40 std devs and average fo the record of 1.69 std devs.
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

Tony Mcleod

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3574 on: December 15, 2016, 12:57:08 PM »
Half a million in five days to finally lose the title, doable though not certain.

Should intersect 2015 and possibly 2012 around Dec. 22nd, give or take a day.

Seems to me it'll be lucky to follow the same shape curve. I don't expect any intersection.

magnamentis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3575 on: December 15, 2016, 11:17:58 PM »
Half a million in five days to finally lose the title, doable though not certain.

Should intersect 2015 and possibly 2012 around Dec. 22nd, give or take a day.

i'm watching LOL U know my opinion considering the weather and winds but oren put it as good as one can at the moment. "spannung pur"
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Cato

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3576 on: December 16, 2016, 12:50:31 AM »
As per the forecasts, Hudson is freezing quickly and there's 5-6 days left of very low temperatures to further increase extension up there. Very cold conditions forecast for the Okhotsk and, in a few days, for Chukchi as well.

There's more than 1 million kmq left to be frozen between Hudson, Chuckchi and coastal areas of Okhotsk and Newfoundland where conditions will be generally cold for the next one week. Part of this increase will be offset by very warm conditions in Barents, where I expect also some compaction after the strong winds from the south.

Overall I keep expecting that 2016 will probably close the gap in about one week time (I'm always overoptimistic, I know...)

Tigertown

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3577 on: December 16, 2016, 12:54:51 AM »
In 2015, the extent hit 11.83 million km2 on 12-22. It is very possible to make up the difference in where we are now and that number in 7 or 8 days.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3578 on: December 16, 2016, 05:03:12 AM »
IJIS:

11,093,023 km2(December 15, 2016)up 82,554 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3579 on: December 16, 2016, 02:01:57 PM »
As noted above, IJIS extent has been the lowest on record 185 of this year's 349 days, including the last 57 consecutive days. That's about 53% of the total. It was also 2nd lowest on an additional 56 days, and 3rd lowest on another 67. That means 2016 has spent a total of 308 days in one of the three lowest positions, for 88% of the total.

Despite the December refreeze, 2016 has by a wide margin seen the least Northern sea ice extent on record, as exhibited by this graph:



Interesting stat: even were extent to grow by 750k every day between now and the end of the year, 2016 would still end up with the lowest annual average extent.

November saw the lowest average for that month on record, and December is a solid lock. So even if IJIS's daily numbers catch up to previous years for a shorter or longer time span, the damage has already been done. For remember: not all ice is created equal.

Also: the sun starts s-l-o-w-l-y moving back north in just one week.

Shared Humanity

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3580 on: December 17, 2016, 02:06:49 AM »
And that sun is going to find a lot of thin ice and open waters on both the Pacific and Atlantic sides.

Tigertown

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3581 on: December 17, 2016, 02:22:50 AM »
You won't get any argument from me on that. Next year will be phenomenal, no doubt.

Lord M Vader

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3582 on: December 18, 2016, 08:29:53 AM »
IJIS is back and we are up to 11,25 Mn km2. Espen will give you the exact numbers later today :)

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3583 on: December 18, 2016, 08:35:09 AM »
IJIS:

11,251,450 km2(December 17, 2016)and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

oren

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3584 on: December 18, 2016, 10:06:57 AM »
Average gain slightly less than 80k for the last two days. The "target" is still within reach but far from guaranteed.
« Last Edit: December 18, 2016, 08:33:00 PM by oren »

magnamentis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3585 on: December 18, 2016, 06:26:50 PM »
Average loss slightly less than 80k for the last two days. The "target" is still within reach but far from guaranteed.

even though we all understand the meaning that would make a "gain" if you want to edit that :-)

yeah this time it's a flattening and now we need an upturn to get back on "collision course" the lines meant to intersect or touch of course LOL

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oren

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3586 on: December 18, 2016, 08:33:33 PM »
Thanks magnamentis, corrected...

pauldry600

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3587 on: December 19, 2016, 02:24:15 PM »
11.29m is where we are at noe.

Only 40k increase.

2010 slowed about now for a few days.

We are 200 to 300k off that

My math suck but we may stay just below and just breach 12m by Dec 31.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3588 on: December 19, 2016, 08:46:19 PM »
IJIS:

11,295,762 km2(December 18, 2016)up 44,312 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

oren

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3589 on: December 19, 2016, 09:03:25 PM »
Looking at the regional AMSR2 extent charts, it seems the recent slowdown was caused by the Chukchi and Bering sporting a decrease, quite possibly into record territory for the date, and this despite Kara and especially Hudson exhibiting very fast growth which brought them almost to a "full" level.

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3590 on: December 19, 2016, 10:22:48 PM »
Looking at the regional AMSR2 extent charts, it seems the recent slowdown was caused by the Chukchi and Bering sporting a decrease, quite possibly into record territory for the date, and this despite Kara and especially Hudson exhibiting very fast growth which brought them almost to a "full" level.
I believe the Barents is retreating some with the weather as well.
This space for Rent.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3591 on: December 20, 2016, 05:24:04 AM »
IJIS:

11,360,060 km2(December 19, 2016)up 64,298 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Cato

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3592 on: December 20, 2016, 10:39:37 AM »
More or less in accordance with the forecast, freezing over hudson has been very quick, though partially offset by compaction in Barents. The gap has not been closed due to the slower than expected (by me) freezing rate over Okhotsk.

Between now and the 31th of December, about 800,000 kmq are needed to close the gap. It's not a big deal as it makes slightly more than 70k per day. And there is potential for further freezing over Okhotsk, Davis streit and Chuckchi, where conditions will be very cold in the next one week. IMHO there is more than 1 million kmq to freeze in those areas, as conditions over barents will keep being extremely warm and favourable to further compaction.

Based on synoptic considerations only, I still tend to believe that 2016 will not be leading by the end of December.
« Last Edit: December 20, 2016, 11:40:36 AM by Cato »

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3593 on: December 21, 2016, 05:22:21 AM »
IJIS:

11,447,549 km2(December 20, 2016)up 87,489 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
« Last Edit: December 21, 2016, 05:45:52 PM by Espen »
Have a ice day!

Paddy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3594 on: December 21, 2016, 09:02:20 PM »
Based on synoptic considerations only, I still tend to believe that 2016 will not be leading by the end of December.

I'm reckoning it'll be about the lowest, plus or minus a little. Temperatures are still pretty high for the time of year over the Arctic seas.

Shared Humanity

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3595 on: December 21, 2016, 11:57:33 PM »
We may edge out of the lowest spot in the next day or two.

Tigertown

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3596 on: December 22, 2016, 12:25:40 AM »
Funny thing is that it looks like the year will end close to where it started. On Jan. 1st 2016, the extent was 12.23 million km2.

gregcharles

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3597 on: December 22, 2016, 12:58:57 AM »
I also find it funny that while 2010 has (for now) the lowest record until December 31, it was beaten on January 1 (albeit 2011) by 2016. The two lines crossed on the only day that the graph can't show that they crossed. In a weird way, 2016 is now in a race for last with 2016.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3598 on: December 22, 2016, 05:23:56 AM »
IJIS:

11,491,398 km2(December 21, 2016)up 43,849 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

oren

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3599 on: December 22, 2016, 06:26:09 AM »
Missed by an inch. 2016 just can't let go.