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Author Topic: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change  (Read 694795 times)

nanning

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2950 on: January 16, 2020, 06:49:01 AM »
Indeed gerontocrat, and perhaps you don't know it, but the 1953 floods were such a big disaster that the Netherlands started and finished an enormous 30 year project to safeguard our southern coastline and the Rhine and Meuse delta against similar threats:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delta_Works

And as kassy writes, there are a plethora of other threats in these times.

I hadn't thought about a tornado yet, but why not? And why not hurricanes? Expect the unexpected because the 'new normal' is hundreds of years into the future.

Here in Friesland in the north, we have the West-Frisian Islands (NL: Waddeneilanden) and the very shallow Wadden Sea as a barrier before our dykes are hit.
The area where I live is a bit elevated (ca. NAP +1m) because of a sandy hill, left behind by the last glaciation.
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El Cid

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2951 on: January 16, 2020, 08:10:13 AM »
As for the orderly jet stream:

My completely unscientific view is that  as wind pushed a lot of ice into the Barents very early this year, this led to cool temperatures (see Longyearbyen's weather this year as opoosed to previopus years!)  and this stabilized tropospheric temperatures at a low level (cold) which helped stabilize the stratospheric vortex. While in the past few years the Barents was mostly icefree and therefore warm which destabilized the stratospheric vortex from the bottom leading to waviness and splits.
So that is why I think we have a stable jetstream, no vortex split and generally "calm" winter weather.

As for storms: there are two forces: 1) it is shown that tropical cyclogenesis is likely to become stronger but 2) the lessened Equator-Pole temperature difference should lead to less wind in the NH. I am not sure which one prevails but either way the Netherlands is going to become a place becoming less liveable as it will have to fight ever more and ever stronger floods

be cause

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2952 on: January 16, 2020, 11:19:28 AM »
As the Netherlands has the most tornadoes per land area in the world , Nanning should expect the unexpected . Me too .. as the UK comes second . b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

Archimid

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2953 on: January 16, 2020, 12:00:40 PM »

2. I previously quoted studies about abrupt climate changes, but I always have to requote them because doomers do not believe it:

It is not that I don't believe you. Is that you are using D-O events out of context. D-O events are evidence FOR abrupt climate change and apocalypse, but by waving over the details of what happened during D-O events you are using it as evidence against collapse.

Quote
the first relevant hit in Google from a reliable source:

https://www.nature.com/scitable/knowledge/library/abrupt-climate-change-during-the-last-ice-24288097/

"One of the most surprising findings was that the shifts from cold stadials to the warm interstadial intervals occurred in a matter of decades, with air temperatures over Greenland rapidly warming 8 to 15°C" (the original study used decades as well, but said that it likely happened within a matter of YEARS. )


This event was very, very different from the current situation. It was much smaller in magnitude as it was a very local change in sea ice cover near Greenland that precipitated an abrupt global climate change.

That D-O event was small in terms of time and space scale but changed the climate for millennia. Wetlands turned to deserts decimating life and temperate forests turned to insect filled jungles. Many species went extinct, many species thrived. Rivers formed, rivers dried. But there were no humans there to write about it.

If the climate changes and there is no one to write about it, does it really changes?

If there were 7 billion settled humans, dependent on nature for water, food and a stable atmosphere at the time of D-O events, what would have happened to them? (Assume they knew a D-O would happen but they decided to do nothing about it)

Quote
I did not see Greenland temperatures going up 8 to 15C in the past decades, so saying that the current warming is unprecedented is baseless in my view

You should know by now the difference between local climate change and global climate change. What is happening now is unprecedented. Your view on this is objectively wrong.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

El Cid

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2954 on: January 16, 2020, 01:27:05 PM »
As for this

" Wetlands turned to deserts decimating life and temperate forests turned to insect filled jungles. Many species went extinct, many species thrived. Rivers formed, rivers dried. But there were no humans there to write about it."

I totally agree, that is what I said above. There were huge and FAST changes which decimated life but did not destroy it at all.

Now, as for this one:

"If there were 7 billion settled humans, dependent on nature for water, food and a stable atmosphere at the time of D-O events, what would have happened to them?"

This is a relevant question. And I say that there would have been huge problems when temperatures FELL during these D-O events, partly because of less heat and partly because it brought with it much drying, decimating agriculture and possibly leading to war. When temperatures ROSE in Europe, it would have been a blessing: longer growing periods and more rain = more food.

This is not only a theory, it is a historical fact: every big COOLING event led to catastrophe: when the Roman Warm period ended, the Dark Ages arrived and before that the Greek Dark Ages. Recently the Little Ice Age wreaked havoc.
When warming came to Europe it led to great and stable empires. Mycene, then the Romans, then Charlemagne's "Renaissance" after hundreds of dark ages

kassy

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2955 on: January 16, 2020, 01:55:32 PM »
A bit warmer weather then the ice ages is good but too much heat is not. Of course it is not just the heat but also changing precipitation pattern, loss of alpine snow cover whith knock on effects on the rivers etc etc.

Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2956 on: January 16, 2020, 01:59:20 PM »
“Hundreds of dark ages” El CID?
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

gerontocrat

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2957 on: January 16, 2020, 04:06:23 PM »
Anybody going to post something on "Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change"?

There is a thread called Holocene Extinction
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nanning

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2958 on: January 16, 2020, 05:39:48 PM »
Thanks for making us aware of it gerontocrat.
Like others, I easily cross thread borders without being aware of it.

Then again, this forum has no clean thread system were all subjects are covered with clear borders. Many threads overlap and we even have a Tesla thread, for just one specific car manufacturer, even mentioning "glory".
This threads system is chaotic (apart from the ice related threads) and should be redesigned for clarity and functionally separate purposes/subjects. That won't happen of course. It is in many ways the same as our human language.

On topic:
It has been a nice day here for a change. Sunshine and not much wind. We used to have that a lot when it still was freezing for many days in winter. Quiet cold weather with sunshine on the ice and snow.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
   Simple: minimize your possessions and be free and kind    It's just a mindset.       Refugees welcome

be cause

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2959 on: January 16, 2020, 06:43:03 PM »
I remember Leewauden in 1992 ( i think ) @ the end of Jan. .. everyone was complaining .. no snow , no ice . Been somewhere in Holland 6 Januaries since . No snow , no ice .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

nanning

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2960 on: January 16, 2020, 07:53:57 PM »
^^
Yes, it's been some time since our customary ice and snow winters. I am old enough to remember the 70s and learned to iceskate well.

Note: Holland does not exist, like America doesn't exist. It is wrong.
This country is called The Netherlands,
and what people call America is called the U.S.A.: The 2nd largest country of the North-American continent.
Of course you knew that last part. It was meant to kick the U.S.A. centric world view. Hard. In the crotch.

P.S. we had an 'Elfstedentocht' in 1997.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
   Simple: minimize your possessions and be free and kind    It's just a mindset.       Refugees welcome

philopek

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2961 on: January 16, 2020, 10:41:20 PM »

Note: Holland does not exist, like America doesn't exist. It is wrong.
This country is called The Netherlands,

For the sake of those who really don't know of which are many were you just hit LOL, Holland does indeed exist, even though as provinces and not as countries and of course i know you were speaking about countries. "holland does not exist" is similarly misleading than calling the netherlands "holland" which people do in many countries.

I grew up and never knew anything than the name "holland" for the netherlands, even at school we were tought that way in the 60-ies.

however, there is noord holland and zuid holland that are "provinces" i'll check tomorrow after having arrived in Amsterdam, shall visit twice during the next 2 weeks. in between i go skiing in "georgia" (caucasus) after i did the work why i have to visit "tbilisi"

PS: i'm kidding about checking tomorrow of course and hope that i was able to make clear that it's not about nitpicking, just an exchange about terms and how difficult it is to stay most precise at any point in a discussion ;) ;)  (not saying we have to, main thing is to be mutually understood)
« Last Edit: January 16, 2020, 11:54:53 PM by philopek »

Archimid

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2962 on: January 16, 2020, 10:49:10 PM »
This is a relevant question. And I say that there would have been huge problems when temperatures FELL during these D-O events, partly because of less heat and partly because it brought with it much drying, decimating agriculture and possibly leading to war. When temperatures ROSE in Europe, it would have been a blessing: longer growing periods and more rain = more food.

The most important difference when comparing Anthropogenic climate change with D-O events is the base temperature. D-O events happened during a much colder time frame, when the NH was covered by huge ice sheets. It is now relatively warm and the ice sheets disappeared thousands of years ago. 

But in this case, comparing the variability that happened during the Holocene to the changes that happened during D-O events is the most important difference.



The changes in temperature that happened during the Holocene are nothing relative to the changes in temperature during D-O events. Nothing. You can't even compare them in the same conversation.


Quote
This is not only a theory, it is a historical fact: every big COOLING event led to catastrophe: when the Roman Warm period ended, the Dark Ages arrived and before that the Greek Dark Ages. Recently the Little Ice Age wreaked havoc.
When warming came to Europe it led to great and stable empires. Mycene, then the Romans, then Charlemagne's "Renaissance" after hundreds of dark ages

All of the temperature swings you mention are nothing relative to the temperature change climate change has brought. Yet you compare them with all the confidence in the world.




There is an optimal temperature, too hot can be bad, too cold can be bad. Going from mountains of ice to boreal forests sounds good. But going from warm to warmer might be too much. Also, going from cold to warm too fast is most likely bad.

AGW is happening in an already warm world, at a pace that human civilization has never tested. AGW is global and it is not just warming. Poisoning of our air and water is happening at the same time that warming is happening further straining the biosphere. To make it worse, most humans convinced themselves is not a problem for them.






I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

The Walrus

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2963 on: January 16, 2020, 11:58:01 PM »
Archimid,
That is a rather distorted temperature history.  Most graphs show ~8-10 degrees differences between glacials and interglacials, not 3.  Your last 2 degrees of temperature rise is just a prediction.  Much of what El CID states was accurate.

Archimid

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2964 on: January 17, 2020, 07:24:41 AM »
I'm sorry, but what el Cid said was extremely inaccurate. He compared D-O events with the very slight temperature swings of the Holocene.  That is absolute madness.



This image better compares the variability during D-O events and Holocene variability. The variability is in a different league. An image of the temperature variability over Greenland for the last 2000 years.




The true analogue for a D-O event is a BOE. When that happens the temperature in the NH will shoot up 10-15 C during summer, ending the world as we know it, just like a D-O event would have done. Except that we also have industrial waste and abandoned nuclear reactors

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

El Cid

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2965 on: January 17, 2020, 08:40:45 AM »
I am a bit fedup with this doomer-sh**. I stated well known scientific facts, ie: very abrupt climate changes routinely happened not only in Greenland but also in NH midlatitudes  without somehow destroying the ecosystem in the past few thousand years. Just one example:

https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/geology/article-abstract/36/5/407/29759/Rapid-ecosystem-response-to-abrupt-climate-changes?redirectedFrom=fulltext

"Transitions between different ecological states occurred in as little as 40–230 yr and seem to have been controlled by the position of the Polar Front...open, treeless vegetation indicate cold and dry conditions in response to Heinrich events. Alternating phases of higher and low lake organic productivity, stratified surface waters and long-lasting lake ice cover, decreased or increased catchment erosion, and tree-dominated or herb-dominated vegetation resemble Dansgaard-Oeschger interstadial-stadial variability"

From treeless dry steppe to boreal forest in S.France in a matter of decades. There you have it.

also:
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2007GL031716
strong correlation between Greenland and Europe temps

This is my last post on this thread about this since it is clearly offtopic. SRY

Archimid

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2966 on: January 17, 2020, 09:06:51 AM »
Quote
I am a bit fedup with this doomer-sh**.

You are more than fed up. You are in such a state of denial that you get basic scientific facts wrong. I don't believe that is ignorance. I believe that is fear psychology. But don't feel bad. Even world leaders like Putin and Trump are vulnerable to it.

Quote
I stated well known scientific facts, ie: very abrupt climate changes routinely happened not only in Greenland but also in NH midlatitudes  without somehow destroying the ecosystem in the past few thousand years.

your understanding of the facts are wrong.

Quote
Just one example:

https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/geology/article-abstract/36/5/407/29759/Rapid-ecosystem-response-to-abrupt-climate-changes?redirectedFrom=fulltext

I only have access to the abstract, but this link is proof that you are mistaken. It's right there in the title. This paper is talking about D-O and Heinrich events, 14k-60k years ago NOT THE LAST 1000 YEARS.

Yet you freely compare the slight climate fluctuations of the last 1000 years to D-O events or AGW. You are quantitatively wrong about the variability experienced during D-O events and Holocene variability.

Quote
"Transitions between different ecological states occurred in as little as 40–230 yr and seem to have been controlled by the position of the Polar Front...open, treeless vegetation indicate cold and dry conditions in response to Heinrich events. Alternating phases of higher and low lake organic productivity, stratified surface waters and long-lasting lake ice cover, decreased or increased catchment erosion, and tree-dominated or herb-dominated vegetation resemble Dansgaard-Oeschger interstadial-stadial variability"


AGW will be worse than that because a BOE will be worse than a D-O event, there is AGW on top, there are all other sorts of nasty pollution on top and there is there very distinct possibility of war.

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

nanning

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2967 on: January 17, 2020, 11:02:46 AM »
What does "doom" mean?

From https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/doom:

doom (countable and uncountable, plural dooms)

   1. Destiny, especially terrible.
   2. An undesirable fate; an impending severe occurrence or danger that seems inevitable.
   3. A feeling of danger, impending danger, darkness or despair.

Pretty accurate I'd say.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
   Simple: minimize your possessions and be free and kind    It's just a mindset.       Refugees welcome

be cause

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2968 on: January 17, 2020, 11:52:15 AM »
  doom ? .. a backward mood .. b.c.

 p.s. .. Holland is the very first option offered by Google when I type 'Belfast to ... ' :)  .. I know the Netherlanders .. they all want to go dutch ..

pps .. a trace of frost this morning .. to lighten the mood .
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

Shared Humanity

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2969 on: January 17, 2020, 03:25:31 PM »
What does "doom" mean?

From https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/doom:

doom (countable and uncountable, plural dooms)

   1. Destiny, especially terrible.
   2. An undesirable fate; an impending severe occurrence or danger that seems inevitable.
   3. A feeling of danger, impending danger, darkness or despair.

Pretty accurate I'd say.

Yeah, sounds spot on.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2970 on: January 17, 2020, 03:28:35 PM »
You know we are in trouble when the U.S. national weather service hypes every winter storm as a disaster in the making and something we have never seen before. The last winter storm was a real nothing burger in the Midwest with Chicago getting light rain and high winds.

This season, Chicago has not had a single day or night with temps below 0F.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #2971 on: January 17, 2020, 06:28:31 PM »
Quote
.. a trace of frost this morning ..
Oh, how exciting.  Lets all gather close and breathe on it to see if it grows!  ::)
It works for fire ...   :P

Tallahassee might get some frost next week.  Some nearby areas had a touch of frost a 6-8 weeks ago, but I haven't yet brought my orchids in, but will this weekend.  [70F=21C; 60F=15.5C; 50F=10C; 40F=4C; 30F=-1C]
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