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gerontocrat

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #550 on: March 02, 2024, 07:50:13 PM »
Looking at the 1997-98 and 2015-16 El Nino, in the 2nd year SSTs stayed above year 1 SSTs untul May/June.

At the moment the ENSO forecasts suggest a similar oucome for SSTS during the current 2023-24 El Nino.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #551 on: March 02, 2024, 07:51:32 PM »
& here are graphs on SSTs to 1 March 2024
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SeanAU

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #552 on: March 03, 2024, 05:35:50 AM »
Feb 23rd

Brian McNoldy
@BMcNoldy
Unbelievable: the North Atlantic sea surface temperature is now 4.5 standard deviations above the recent 1991-2020 climatological mean... that translates to a 1-in-284,000-year event.  Yet here we are watching it unfold, one day at a time. This is deeply troubling.

https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1760690880867185017 

McNoldy is the one featured in the NY Times “Scientists Are Freaking Out About Ocean Temperatures” article: “It’s like an omen of the future.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/27/climate/scientists-are-freaking-out-about-ocean-temperatures.html

First it was a mystery, and now they are freaking out?

Quote
    “Another factor may be the complex feedback loops in the Earth’s weather patterns. The North Atlantic has been unusually clear lately, with fewer clouds than normal to block the sunlight from heating the water. The area has also been less windy than normal, which may have also led to a spike in temperatures.
    Without strong winds, colder water from deeper in the ocean doesn’t rise to the surface as readily, England said.”

Sabine Hossenfelder is right ....


Early on they are given error bars based on the scientists own judgement of statistical uncertainty, etc. She then showed what happens when later experiments provide new values way outside the original error bars. What this means is that the error bars should have been much wider in the first place, with the blame often placed on confirmation bias, which is simply over-confidence in the scientists belief in the correctness of the parameters.

I think the current spike in ocean temperatures is estimated as 4.5 standard deviations (!!!) 

Does this mean the model is wrong? That standard deviation is based on normal/Gaussian statistics. Should it be a model based on fat-tail statistics? Is there something else missing in the models?

That’s the kind of question Sabine is asking, which is really just a reflection of what actual climatologists are “freaking-out” over.

Instead what she gets from celebrity climate scientists and their cult groupies is abuse and insults, the same as Hansen and Leon Simons and Simon Michaux et al get.
« Last Edit: March 03, 2024, 06:05:22 AM by SeanAU »
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kassy

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #553 on: March 03, 2024, 08:25:53 PM »
Quote
I think the current spike in ocean temperatures is estimated as 4.5 standard deviations (!!!)

Does this mean the model is wrong? That standard deviation is based on normal/Gaussian statistics. Should it be a model based on fat-tail statistics? Is there something else missing in the models?

That is versus the baseline not versus a specific model prediction. The values are still within the normal ensemble if on the high side.
The biggest problem for the model is clouds because they cannot be solved at the large resolution and we also do not really know what happens exiting an ice age. At least we will get way more data on that.

On a higher resolution we hit 2C global in the forties.
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El Cid

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #554 on: March 03, 2024, 10:56:17 PM »
Feb 23rd

Brian McNoldy
@BMcNoldy
Unbelievable: the North Atlantic sea surface temperature is now 4.5 standard deviations above the recent 1991-2020 climatological mean... that translates to a 1-in-284,000-year event.

Another clueless guy. Don't read clueless guys.

First of all, based on ECMWF data 2023 was 0,68 C above the 1991-2020 climatological mean. 2024 January was 0,73 C above. Standard deviation calculated from the annual datapoints is 0,235C. I don't know how he ends up with 4.5 times (eg. 0,73/0,235= 3,1). But that's really irrelevant basically because:

Second: Standard deviations are useful in normal distributions. Natural processes usually have a long tail and are not normal. Just like stock prices and so with temperature data. This is well known (those who did not know learnt it during the 1987 crash). A normal distribution is within the average +/-3 sigma in 99,73% of cases. There should only be an outlier every 400 years(in case of annual data as above). In reality this happens much more often in tenmperature data. Long tail. (meaning: even a 4.5 std event does not happen once in 384000 years)

Third. If you have a trend as in case of global warming then due to this later data are (per definitionem) higher than earlier data, so you need to detrend the data. You can do it with a simple trendline as shown on my chart (I  used 1950-80 baseline but it does not matter what baseline you choose, it won't change the results). 2023 data are cca 1,8 standard deviation above the trendline,

Plus one: picking individual days for the above exercise is cherrypicking.

Conclusion: NA SSTs are in an uptrend. This is caused by AGW. But there is nothing in the data to show that something extraordinarily unexpected  has happened (eg 1998 was also 0,4 C above the trendline).
« Last Edit: March 03, 2024, 11:12:52 PM by El Cid »

SeanAU

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #555 on: March 04, 2024, 03:11:58 AM »

Another clueless guy. Don't read clueless guys.


Well it sure sounded spectacular. And all we're left with is another new record high. I'm very disappointed. TY
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HapHazard

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #556 on: March 12, 2024, 09:53:51 AM »
Still riding high

If I call you out but go no further, the reason is Brandolini's law.

Sublime_Rime

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #557 on: March 12, 2024, 03:36:17 PM »
Feb 23rd

Brian McNoldy
@BMcNoldy
Unbelievable: the North Atlantic sea surface temperature is now 4.5 standard deviations above the recent 1991-2020 climatological mean... that translates to a 1-in-284,000-year event.

Another clueless guy. Don't read clueless guys.


While I appreciate your skillful breakdown of why his claim was exaggerated, I think his overall point still stands that this was an extraordinary event. In my opinion, if something only happens twice in 70 years, it is still extraordinary, especially if the other event occurred during the strongest El Nino event in that period (while this one has been far weaker). If you want a useful take on how extreme this past year has been statistically, Eliot Jacobson has some useful visualizations posted to his Twitter account (he's a retired mathematician).
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Freegrass

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #558 on: March 15, 2024, 01:52:39 AM »
Still riding high
Same in the North Atlantic.
Curious what that's going to give in summer.

If the Gulf Stream indeed slowed down by 4%, all that water has 4% more time to heat up from the sun, no?
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kiwichick16

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #559 on: March 15, 2024, 11:44:24 PM »
@ freegrass ....hopefully the El Nino effect starts to deminish over the next 3-6 months

Rodius

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #560 on: March 16, 2024, 01:21:28 AM »
@ freegrass ....hopefully the El Nino effect starts to deminish over the next 3-6 months

I don't think that matters much... the way I understand it, El Nino increases the current temps so even when it ends, the average temp is still higher than 20 years ago.

I am fairly sure, these days, that the "cooler" La Nina these days is about the same as El Nino heat 40 odd years ago. I probably should double check that...

kiwichick16

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #561 on: March 16, 2024, 03:32:15 AM »
@  rodius  ....true.... just hoping the edge might get knocked off the extremes

re El Nino compared to LaNina  this graph seems to agree with your point .....data back to 1950's


https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2023/01/2022-updates-to-the-temperature-records/

kiwichick16

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #562 on: March 16, 2024, 06:19:24 AM »
in hind sight Gavin's estimate for 2023 was too conservative .....as were most estimates

KiwiGriff

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #563 on: March 16, 2024, 07:21:58 AM »
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El Cid

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #564 on: March 16, 2024, 10:08:02 AM »
@ freegrass ....hopefully the El Nino effect starts to deminish over the next 3-6 months

I don't think that matters much... the way I understand it, El Nino increases the current temps so even when it ends, the average temp is still higher than 20 years ago.

I am fairly sure, these days, that the "cooler" La Nina these days is about the same as El Nino heat 40 odd years ago. I probably should double check that...

El Nino/La Nina for the global climate is like a breathing in / breathing out cycle. La Nina sucks warmth out of the atmosphere and reduces global temperatures by 0,1-0,15 C, while El Nino spits it out and raises temperatures by 0,1-0,2 RELATIVE TO THE TREND. So all they do is creating oscillation. They do NOT increase or reduce warming, just add some volatility to the game

If we talk about sea temperatures, the ENSO tropical region's SST did NOT really change during the past 80 years, so a current Nino is pretty much as warm (a a tad bit maybe warmer) than a Nino decades ago. Same is true for Nina. (chart 1)

Global SSTs of course grew because the further you go from the Equator, the more ocean warming you get (chart 2)

For example, 30N-70N , ie. mid to higher latitude SSTs are not even very much influenced by the Nino/Nina cycle, they just keep going up (chart 3)

morganism

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #565 on: March 17, 2024, 09:53:02 PM »
(Lots of latent heat off Cali coast still. Any more major atmo rivers have plenty of fuel to work with.)

Hundreds of thousands of peculiar sea creatures wash up on California beaches
By-the-wind sailors are an early sign of spring

So when hundreds of thousands of Velella velella — gelatinous creatures better known as by-the-wind sailors — drifted ashore on Trinidad State Beach over the weekend, Belak decided to play a game. She called it: “Can I find the smallest velella?”

The creatures are not particularly hard to spot, considering their flashy blue color and saillike fins, which catch wind and allow colonies to travel over very long distances. Trinidad State Beach is about 300 miles north of San Francisco, but Belak lives close, so she was able to visit multiple times. She also explored a couple of nearby beaches, and found by-the-wind sailors everywhere she went.
(snip)
Although it’s hard to estimate how many were out there, Belak thinks there were hundreds of thousands, and possibly even a million. She’s seen these “blooms” blown ashore in previous years, particularly in springtime during El Nino years, when the ocean temperatures are on the warm side (which leads to a proliferation of northern anchovy eggs, a food source for by-the-wind sailors). But this year they’ve turned up earlier than usual, she says, which could be related to human-caused climate change.

“This has been the highest year on record for sea surface temperature,” Belak says. “And so winter temperatures have been high, and they’ve had the opportunity to bloom. Then with this amount of wind we’re currently having, they’re getting blown on shore.”

“Personally, I love gelatinous zooplankton,” she says. Although V. velellas look like jellyfish, they are more closely related to the Portuguese man-of-war, she continues, with dangling tentacles that they use to catch prey and no means of transporting themselves other than wind. They float at the surface of the water, and each sail represents not just one, but a colony of organisms, Belak says, with individuals that are specialized for different functions, including feeding, reproduction and defense.

“They all work together to create a happy little colony,” she says.
(more)

https://www.sfgate.com/california-parks/article/by-the-wind-sailors-wash-up-california-beaches-19018810.php


SeanAU

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #566 on: March 18, 2024, 10:45:38 AM »
@ freegrass ....hopefully the El Nino effect starts to deminish over the next 3-6 months

I don't think that matters much... the way I understand it, El Nino increases the current temps so even when it ends, the average temp is still higher than 20 years ago.

I am fairly sure, these days, that the "cooler" La Nina these days is about the same as El Nino heat 40 odd years ago. I probably should double check that...

El Nino/La Nina ---- They do NOT increase or reduce warming, just add some volatility to the game


Even though the graphs are perfectly fine they don't really confirm/support the notion that enso can't impact warming over and above the cycles. They're 'framing' people's attention away from the whole. That everything is in  climate is connected in ways often unseen.

I did reply to this a cpl days ago with a list of things ENSO 'logically' does or could impact and how possibly drives other warming, is a positive feedback overall ... but I deleted it.

Then someone dropped this on me ..... so why not post some of it here as one example of many?
Quote
El Ninos lead to enhanced arctic sea ice decline in summer after a time lag and that has predicted enhanced decline in summer sea ice. I see no obvious reason to doubt the connection or predictions. I have always assumed el nino would transmit heat to the arctic through ocean currents and atmospheric circulation. Seems obvious. Science has found a connection:

“The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a substantial influence on regional patterns of Arctic sea ice thickness and concentration in simulations, especially in late summer and autumn following a large El Niño/La Niña. ”
https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018AGUFMGC53A..04B/abstract

Then simply connect the Dots! It's logical to work out how this (and many others things about ENSO) can drive extra warming cumulatively to some degree, whether measurable or not at this point.

I wonder if some one will drop another science paper soon showing how the 23/24 El Nino has driven massive (record levels) CO2 out of vegetation soils and forests, lakes and seas? This CO2 will then remain in the atmosphere for thousands of years adding to the warming in positive feedbacks. As it did in 15/16.

I think it is obvious that global warming impacts ENSO cycles (pushing temps higher and other things) and equally that ENSO impacts warming as well as a positive feedback. Little different than sea ice minimums are an additional warming feedback each 'cycle' which is slowly increasing.

iow ENSO does not exist in a Vacuum. Nothing does. Besides it does not matter if this El Nino ends and temps drop, because it is coming back again and worse soon enough anyway. If you turn the heat up too high on the stove you'll burn something. Turning it off, doesn't reverse what just happened. Physics? :)
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gerontocrat

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #567 on: March 18, 2024, 10:50:25 AM »
data from https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/

Both World and North Atlantic SSTs have been at record daily highs for every day so far this year, and continuously for a full year since March 2023.

For how much longer?
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kassy

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #568 on: March 18, 2024, 03:13:46 PM »
If it clears day 91 a while i guess...
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kassy

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #569 on: March 18, 2024, 03:18:58 PM »
Even though the graphs are perfectly fine they don't really confirm/support the notion that enso can't impact warming over and above the cycles.

You confuse ENSO on a warming world with ENSO in a more stable climate.

In the stable climate which has a stable global temperature it see saws around that in a warming world it does so on the upward temperature slope and yes it adds heat which likes cold so the link to the Arctic ice seems credible. We should see it again in the very near future.
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SeanAU

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #570 on: March 19, 2024, 12:36:51 AM »


You confuse ENSO on a warming world with ENSO in a more stable climate.



Really? How so kassy? Please explain it to me how I confuse the two.

Show me exactly where you imagine I do that kassy.

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kassy

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #571 on: March 19, 2024, 05:27:58 PM »
Well El Cid talks about ENSO in general when he comments on Rodius post.

It existed way before AGW became a thing. It does not add heat by itself it switches between burying and releasing it.

The fact that it influences ASI now in a warming world with weaker ice does not contradict that.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #572 on: March 19, 2024, 09:24:43 PM »
Sea Surface Temperature Research Provides Clear Evidence of Human-Caused Climate Change
https://www.whoi.edu/press-room/news-release/sea-surface-temperature-research-provides-clear-evidence-of-human-caused-climate-change/
https://phys.org/news/2024-03-sea-surface-temperature-evidence-human.html



New oceanic research provides clear evidence of a human "fingerprint" on climate change and shows that specific signals from human activities have altered the seasonal cycle amplitude of sea surface temperatures (SST).

"This is breakthrough evidence that there is a human-caused climate change signal in ocean temperatures associated with CO2 increases," according to co-author Benjamin Santer, an adjunct scientist and distinguished scholar in the Physical Oceanography Department at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute (WHOI).

"We show that a human-caused signal in the seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) has emerged from the noise of natural variability. Geographical patterns of changes in SST seasonal cycle amplitude (SSTAC) reveal two distinctive features: an increase at Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes related to mixed-layer depth changes and a robust dipole pattern between 40˚S and 55˚S which is mainly driven by surface wind changes," according to the journal published in Nature Climate Change.

Jia-Rui Shi et al, The emerging human influence on the seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature, Nature Climate Change (2024)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-01958-8
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johnm33

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #573 on: March 19, 2024, 10:38:00 PM »
Quote
For how much longer?
wag til' 2033

kiwichick16

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #574 on: March 26, 2024, 02:15:52 AM »
temperatures moderating ??......

https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/

kassy

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #575 on: March 26, 2024, 06:21:55 PM »
At 0,8 or so above the normal level. It´s still early spring.
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El Cid

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #576 on: March 26, 2024, 09:17:21 PM »
You have to compare 2024 to 2016 as both are strong El Nino years. I also show on the chart 1998, the previous strong El Nino year.

The difference between 2024 and 2016 is quite constant this year, cca 0,2 C. The difference between 2024 and 1998 is cca 0,6 C.

The curves are very similar

(need to click on the chart otherwise it's hard to see 2016 and 1998!)

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #577 on: March 27, 2024, 09:36:54 AM »
Hey, first post on this forum, have been reading since a few years.

I noticed what might be a (known?) pattern in the ocean temp charts.
E.g. first increase around 2001-2002,
then more pronounced around 2014-2016,
and it seems the current EN is causing another jump in ocean temp levels.

From the previous 'jumps', I suspect we may remain in the higher regions we are currently experiencing. While 2001-2002 is no El Nino event, there could be some delayed effect of heating up the ocean 'conveyor belt' during 1997-1998.

Just speculating, if the ocean currents transfer heat around the globe in a cyclic way, with energy unevenly distributed along it's 'conveyor belt', that there is indeed some multi-decadal effect underlying these observed increases?

Maybe you could point me to any literature I have not read on this topic?
(I have not come accross any such literature so far it seems)

kassy

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #578 on: March 27, 2024, 06:22:59 PM »
Welcome.

Maybe it only looks like a pattern? As you say there is not one clear link so them.
No literature comes to mind. Of course there is lots about the consequences of AMOC and much less on the AABW changes but is all about the near future.
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kassy

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #579 on: March 27, 2024, 06:27:45 PM »
New oceanic research provides clear evidence of a human "fingerprint" on climate change and shows that specific signals from human activities have altered the seasonal cycle amplitude of sea surface temperatures (SST).

"This is breakthrough evidence that there is a human-caused climate change signal in ocean temperatures associated with CO2 increases," according to co-author Benjamin Santer, an adjunct scientist and distinguished scholar in the Physical Oceanography Department at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute (WHOI).

"We show that a human-caused signal in the seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) has emerged from the noise of natural variability. Geographical patterns of changes in SST seasonal cycle amplitude (SSTAC) reveal two distinctive features: an increase at Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes related to mixed-layer depth changes, and a robust dipole pattern between 40˚S and 55˚S which is mainly driven by surface wind changes," according to the journal article, "The emerging human influence on the seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature," published in Nature Climate Change.

The evidence we found is very clear. Our research is based on four different observational data sets of sea surface ocean temperature. We analyzed data from various monitoring systems, including satellite records and ocean measurements that WHOI has been collecting from ships and floats since 1950. All of this data provided the same story and the same conclusion: that the human-caused signal in SSTAC is very strong and has a very distinctive pattern," reported co-lead author Dr. Jia-Rui Shi, Postdoc with WHOI.

The model-predicted pattern of SSTAC change is identifiable with high statistical confidence in four different observed SST products and in 51 individual model realizations of historical climate evolution. Simulations with historical changes in individual forcing reveal that greenhouse gas increases are the primary driver of changes in SSTAC, with smaller but distinct contributions from anthropogenic aerosol and ozone forcing.

The research was motivated by earlier work by Santer, who has worked on climate fingerprinting for more than 30 years. Previous studies used satellite records to identify human fingerprints in the changing seasonal cycle of mid-to-upper tropospheric temperature. However, this is the first fingerprinting study that reveals detailed patterns of climate change in seasonal sea surface temperatures.

"The seasonal cycle amplitude of sea surface temperature is changing and becoming stronger. One of our biggest findings is that warming is greater in the summer than in the winter. In both the northern and southern hemispheres, the mixed-layer depths of the ocean are becoming thinner which can significantly amplify summer temperatures," stated Shi. "The warming in the northern hemisphere is more extreme, associated with smaller ocean basin sizes. In the southern hemisphere, we discovered that sea surface temperature changes are largely driven by wind shift patterns caused by atmospheric warming."

... and more:

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/03/240320122520.htm

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gerontocrat

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #580 on: April 06, 2024, 10:01:32 PM »
Daily World & North Atlantic SSTs have been at record highs for every day so far this year, a continuous run since March 2023 of about 390 days for both World and North Atlantic SSTs.

The Aussie BOM says El Nino is fading, and we will have a new monthly update from CPC on 11 April. So for how long will these record highs remain, and to what extent will they go down as ENSO neutral then La Nina take over? (The same question springs to mind when looking at SATs.)

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Rodius

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #581 on: April 07, 2024, 12:05:58 AM »
I might be misunderstanding El Nino events... which is El Nino releases heat from the oceans into the atmosphere so I took that to mean the ocean temps would decrease during such an event, not increase.

Assuming I am correct about that, that means the El Nino is not the reason for the increased ocean temps... I am probably missing something here though.

interstitial

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #582 on: April 07, 2024, 05:45:19 AM »
I might be misunderstanding El Nino events... which is El Nino releases heat from the oceans into the atmosphere so I took that to mean the ocean temps would decrease during such an event, not increase.

Assuming I am correct about that, that means the El Nino is not the reason for the increased ocean temps... I am probably missing something here though.
When a particular chunk of the ocean is warmer than recent history it is labeled El Nino and when it is cooler La Nina. That is an imprecise but true definition of what it is. It would stop being an El Nino if that portion of the ocean cools. When the hot spot appears that spot is warmer and hence more likely to releases heat to the atmosphere. Though it may not release heat if the air above it is already warmer. Atmospheric temperatures vary much more than ocean temperatures. 


Richard Rathbone

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #583 on: April 07, 2024, 12:01:40 PM »
I might be misunderstanding El Nino events... which is El Nino releases heat from the oceans into the atmosphere so I took that to mean the ocean temps would decrease during such an event, not increase.

Assuming I am correct about that, that means the El Nino is not the reason for the increased ocean temps... I am probably missing something here though.

Its the difference between the surface ocean temperature, which warms, and the ocean volume which cools. Warmer water is brought to the surface during El Nino.

See the fundamentals section on wikipedia if you want more detail.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o%E2%80%93Southern_Oscillation

gerontocrat

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #584 on: April 07, 2024, 02:36:39 PM »
I might be misunderstanding El Nino events... which is El Nino releases heat from the oceans into the atmosphere so I took that to mean the ocean temps would decrease during such an event, not increase.

Assuming I am correct about that, that means the El Nino is not the reason for the increased ocean temps... I am probably missing something here though.

Its the difference between the surface ocean temperature, which warms, and the ocean volume which cools. Warmer water is brought to the surface during El Nino.

See the fundamentals section on wikipedia if you want more detail.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o%E2%80%93Southern_Oscillation
Every so often https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/ releases new quarterly ocean heat data for various depths. The last update was Qu4 2023

Year can sort of see from the attached temperature graph a peak and trough associated with el ninos. I find the 0-100 metres temperatures somewhat scary.

There are papers suggesting that the increased ocean heat is possibly increasing stratification of the oceans, reducing heat penetration to lower depths, see 2nd graph.

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sidd

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #585 on: April 09, 2024, 12:57:30 AM »
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-024-00539-9

Latest OHC from the usual suspects, open source, read all about it.

sidd

gerontocrat

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #586 on: April 09, 2024, 12:03:11 PM »
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-024-00539-9

Latest OHC from the usual suspects, open source, read all about it.

sidd
& here is a North Atlantic graph from https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/global-ocean-heat-content/
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morganism

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #587 on: April 12, 2024, 08:46:11 PM »
(it's fine...)

 Six rare sawfish deaths in 7 days have scientists baffled amid bizarre Florida fish behavior


The smalltooth sawfish, a critically endangered animal, is in even more danger than usual in the Florida seas. Six of the rare creatures washed up dead in the past seven days, officials reported Wednesday – a dramatic increase in mortality amid a mysterious die-off that has baffled scientists for months.

These animals that look like a shark with a chainsaw-like mouth, are a part of a group of fish called elasmobranchs that include rays, skates and sharks, and they can live for several decades under normal circumstances. Typically, about five mature adults are lost each year, mostly when they are accidentally caught in fisheries.

But so far this year, the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission said they’ve lost 38, according to Wednesday’s report, six of which came in just the previous week.

It is still a mystery as to why the sawfish have been dying in record numbers. But divers and anglers have also reported seeing a variety of other species behaving in a highly erratic manner: spinning in circles rather than swimming. Some sawfish, too, have been spotted spinning before dying.

Spinning fish reports began in fall 2023. The spike in sawfish mortalities began in January 2024. It’s “possible that these two events could be related,” the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission says.

One such distressed sawfish was spotted in Cudjoe Bay in the Florida Keys on April 5. Biologists with the commission and the Mote Marine Laboratory transported the sawfish a temporary tank at the Mote facility where it was observed. The fish’s condition stabilized, and on Thursday it was transported by Ripley’s Aquariums Conservation Team to a more permanent Mote quarantine facility for rehabilitation.

The commission and Florida’s Bonefish and Tarpon Trust have recorded more than 200 incidents with more than 30 species swimming in this unusual way. This is happening mostly in the Florida Keys, but there have also been reports as far north as the Miami area.

The smalltooth sawfish was the first marine fish to receive federal protection through the Endangered Species Act in 2003. The animal used to live in waters all throughout the Gulf of Mexico and along the East Coast from Florida to North Carolina, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, but their small numbers generally are now only found off the coast of Florida.

In addition to the spinning, recent reports from anglers and divers in Florida say they have seen the sawfish beach themselves.

A team of local, state and federal wildlife experts are scrambling to find out what’s causing the animals to go into these dangerous death spirals.

“Typically, when we think of fish acting strangely or dying we either think of low oxygen conditions in the water or red tide and so we saw neither,” Mike Parsons, a marine scientist at Florida Gulf Coast University told CNN’s Bill Weir. Parsons wonders if the hot temperatures in the ocean waters are to blame.

Most tests for toxins have been negative, but scientists have seen an unusually high number of algae called gambierdiscus that can produce a wide variety of neurotoxins that can be harmful to fish and dangerous to humans.

Gambierdiscus is normally found in tropical and subtropical waters all around the world, but the algae can grow quickly when waters are warmer than usual. The climate crisis has brought record hot temperatures to the waters around southern Florida.

Gregg Furstenwerth, a lifelong diver in the Florida Keys, said he feels unnerved seeing fish swim in circles and stingrays swimming upside down

“It’s like I’m in the middle of a disaster movie and I’m that guy yelling from the mountain top trying to get people to pay attention,” Furstenwerth told CNN’s Bill Weir.

The uncertainty of what is causing the problem bothers him.

“There is no concrete, conclusive proof of what is happening yet and that is still to be determined, which is quite terrifying.” said Furstenwerth. “If it continues, it is going to be the end of this ecosystem as we know it.”

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/12/climate/sawfish-deaths-spinning-fish-florida/index.html

kiwichick16

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #588 on: April 13, 2024, 05:33:53 AM »
@  morganism   .....wow ....that is scary and terribly sad .......hope they figure out what is happening

gerontocrat

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #589 on: April 18, 2024, 08:20:01 PM »
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/

17th April 2024.
Daily SST's remain at record high levels for both the World and the North Atlantic, now for just over 400 continuous days.

For how much longer.........?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #590 on: April 18, 2024, 08:41:27 PM »
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/

The attached graphs show how many daily SSTs in each year were at record highs compared with all the previous years.

In the World graph the spikes for all three El Nino are similar.
But in the North Atlantic the spikes in the 2015-16 El Nino are far more subdued, even though in the period 1979 to 2023 North Atlantic SSTs are increasing faster than the World SSTs.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Freegrass

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #591 on: April 18, 2024, 09:22:12 PM »
For how much longer.........?
Wrong question.

This is the coldest the ocean will ever be for the next few hundred or thousands of years.
90% of the world is religious, but somehow "love thy neighbour" became "fuck thy neighbours", if they don't agree with your point of view.

WTF happened?

kassy

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #592 on: April 19, 2024, 05:39:22 PM »
Really curious to see how the N Atlantic turns out. The changes are probably unrelated to EN since they started before it took of.
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Freegrass

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #593 on: April 22, 2024, 12:04:55 PM »
Ouch...
90% of the world is religious, but somehow "love thy neighbour" became "fuck thy neighbours", if they don't agree with your point of view.

WTF happened?

kiwichick16

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #594 on: April 24, 2024, 01:57:21 AM »
a blip ?    ......was it  by May -June that Hansen suggested we should be returning to more normal levels ....