The Ebola outbreak in DRC continues to worsen.
Today's sitrep shows 542 confirmed cases, 96 suspected cases, and 319 deaths.
That is a weekly increase (12/10->12/17) of 44 confirmed cases, 23 suspected cases, and 34 deaths. Or, +67 versus one week prior.
So, we are at approximately 636 total cases and 319 deaths, with a weekly increase of 67 cases and 34 deaths.
11/19: 444 / 217
11/26: 495 / 241 (+51 / 24)
12/03: 516 / 260 (+21 / 19)
12/10: 569 / 285 (+53 / 25)
12/17: 636 / 319 (+67 / 34)
At the same stage of the West African outbreak, the below numbers were occurring -- a weekly increase of +137 cases, and 94 deaths.
6/22: 567 / 350
6/29: 704 / 444
However, there are several major differentials between the current outbreak and the 2014 outbreak.
1) We have an effective vaccine, albeit in limited supplies. Out of an estimated 300,000 total doses, almost 49,000 have now been used.
2) The current outbreak is in a single nation, and seems to be more geographically contained (for now). However, it is also an active war zone with ongoing civil strife that has repeatedly hampered medical efforts.
Considering these two factors, it is apparent that if not for the vaccine, the current outbreak would be easily outpacing 2014's numbers. Unfortunately, even WITH the vaccine, this is now the second largest outbreak on record, the largest in DRC's history, and is spreading within urban areas. The number of new cases and deaths each week, WITH vaccine, are still rising exponentially.
Archived reports:
https://us13.campaign-archive.com/home/?u=89e5755d2cca4840b1af93176&id=aedd23c530This is a very bad situation. The week-over-week increases in new cases have been sustained for the past month after briefly dropping at the end of November. I would imagine there are higher numbers than what are being reported as well due to the fact that guerilla rebels have actively been attacking Ebola clinics and kidnapping patients (.... not the brightest bunch).
At the current pace of the epidemic, there will be over 1,000 cases by 2/1. And if it accelerates in the next few weeks, that number could be reached by 1/15. I would anticipate Western media fervor over the epidemic to begin ratcheting upwards at that point. By the time we reach 2/1, the vaccine supply will likely be substantially exhausted, with ~150,000 doses remaining
So, buying stock in MERCK is probably a good bet, as they are the only producers of the current vaccine, and there is likely to be substantial media hysteria as the current outbreak seems to be spreading even WITH the substantial containment efforts. And as weekly new case counts potentially surpass 100+ (we are now 2/3 of the way there), the number of contacts / vaccinations will also increase exponentially.
On a final note: I am beginning to suspect Ebola is now behaving much more like an STD than it has traditionally. Rape and pillaging are still the norm in parts of the DRC where the outbreak is spreading wildly, and it would not surprise me if there are infections occurring in the latency period AFTER symptoms have abated for some of those infected with the virus. This is very troubling and potentially allows a much higher r-naught compared to areas where rape and pillaging are not the norm. Beyond the civil strife, perhaps this is the confounding variable influencing the current trajectory of the disease? Because nothing else really makes sense at this point.
Monthly numbers, BTW:
08/17: 103 / 50
09/17: 148 / 66 (+45 / 16) +43%
10/17: 234 / 109 (+86 / 43) +58%
11/17: 432 / 214 (+198 / 115) +84%
12/17: 636 / 319 (+204 / 105) +47%
vs. West Africa 2014
3/29: 103 / 66
4/29: 248 / 157 +140%
5/29: 309 / 204 +24%
6/29: 704 / 444 +127%
7/29: 1323 / 729 +87%
8/29: 3116 / 1607 +136%
It appears we are currently at a "make or break" moment for transmission. We shall see what happens next. It is interesting to note that the monthly numbers in the West African outbreak experienced an up-and-down see-saw from month to month. DRC's outbreak has seen lower overall spread but more consistent growth, which is potentially more alarming in the long-term if containment is not achieved. The West African "see-saw" would also argue that January is probably going to be a very bad month.
Also re: vaccine -- after doing more digging it appears stockpile is now running out rather quickly in the outbreak region.
On 12/5, there were 4,290 doses available. After delivery of 2,160 new doses, the stockpile still decreased to 4,060 doses. This is down from 4,530 doses available as of two weeks ago, and in the past week alone, there have been 4,421 vaccinations.
Week 49 report:
http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/276677/OEW49-0107122018.pdfWeek 50 report:
http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/277186/OEW50-0814122018.pdf