Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: The Holocene Extinction  (Read 33939 times)

kassy

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 755
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 272
  • Likes Given: 325
Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #150 on: December 17, 2018, 08:42:46 PM »
Quote
The rich aren't the problem, their wealth is the problem. Capitalism is simply the most efficient way for concentrated wealth to grow itself. It uses its owners to grow itself.

But every time the rich theoretically have a choice but the choice is almost never to use their wealth for the good of men (m/f).

The reason our current capitalism is so out of control is also because the rich used to buy up the media, the universities etc. When you get really rich retaining or growing that wealth gets you involved in meddling with large scale politics (transferring labor from west to China brings down labor costs in the west etc).

Quote
What needs to be done first, is putting a cap on how much an individual can own. The system then has the chance to change accordingly.

I think it is a good idea but all modern developments go the other way.
If you have a contest between what the people want and what the rich with their lobbyists and corporate concerns want the latter win because they have more bribes/interesting career prospects for people voting their way.

Sometimes i wonder if our current situation is greed gone too far or a plan progressing splendidly.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3959
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 414
  • Likes Given: 47
Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #151 on: December 17, 2018, 09:09:55 PM »
One more observation: I often hear people say things like "leisure air travel is low hanging fruit.  It should be banned tomorrow."  Kevin Anderson doesn't fly and says no one should (or hardly ever).  Just try and picture the knock-on effects if everyone took that advice tomorrow.  The massive economic upheaval would utterly destabilize the global finance system within days.

And what is it about this statement in the IPCC summary suggests that this need not be the case?

 Pathways limiting global warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot would
require rapid and far-reaching transitions in energy, land, urban and infrastructure
(including transport and buildings), and industrial systems. These
systems transitions are unprecedented in terms of scale, but not necessarily in terms
of speed, and imply deep emissions reductions in all sectors, a wide portfolio of
mitigation options and a significant upscaling of investments in those options.


Your statement sounds like something written by the editor of Forbes magazine.


Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • *****
  • Posts: 7173
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 713
  • Likes Given: 467
Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #152 on: December 17, 2018, 09:32:08 PM »
But every time the rich theoretically have a choice but the choice is almost never to use their wealth for the good of men (m/f).

Absolutely, and that's because concentrated wealth (which owns them, not the other way around) poisons their minds, and more.

Which is why, of all the people in the world, the rich need to be saved most. I know it's counterintuitive, but we need to save the rich.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Nemesis

  • Guest
Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #153 on: December 17, 2018, 09:47:08 PM »
" Which is why, of all the people in the world, the rich need to be saved most. I know it's counterintuitive, but we need to save the rich."

Hahaha, excellent statement. I thought exactly the same over the recent years  :D The rich are the poorest people on the planet, they just don't realize it yet. Look at Paradise: Burned down to ashes within a flash.

Samsara feels comfortable for the rich for a little while, that's the mean thing, the trick about Samsara.

Yes, the rich need to be saved more than anyone, but not by funny money I swear  8)
« Last Edit: December 17, 2018, 09:59:02 PM by Nemesis »

Ktb

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 143
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 48
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #154 on: December 18, 2018, 06:28:07 AM »
Quote
And in spite of all the mastery we've attained, we don't have enough mastery to stop devastating the world.. or to repair the devastation we've already wrought.
- Ishmael by Daniel Quinn

If you cannot tell, my favorite book. I read recently that individual species extinction events has reached critical levels where we will shortly experience cascading ecological collapses. I will attempt to find said article and post it, or at least the important aspects of it.
« Last Edit: December 18, 2018, 06:34:38 AM by Ktb »
I have amazing news for you. Man is not alone on this planet. He is part of a community, upon which he depends absolutely.
- Ishmael

dnem

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 315
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 110
  • Likes Given: 53
Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #155 on: December 18, 2018, 04:59:10 PM »
SH, I don't really see the relevance of your IPCC quote.

As for my comment sounding like something from Forbes magazine, that's almost my point.  Look, we live in a fantastically complex global economy.  Its systemic stability depends on growth.  Without growth, it will become catastrophically unstable. That's why the hegemony gets so worked up about a recession that might cause a 1 or 2% GDP contraction for a fiscal quarter or two.

If you pulled the plug on leisure air travel tomorrow, the effects would ripple out catastrophically through the economy.  Think about the dependent industries: the airline industry, everyone that works in airports, the businesses the surround airports and depend on them, the supplies chains that feed them, and so on.  And that does not even BEGIN to consider the hundreds of millions (billions?) of people around the world whose very livelihood depends on tourism income.

I am a huge promoter of degrowth.  But the machine cannot accommodate it.  That's fine: we're utterly f*cked if we just roll on under BAU. So bring it on, I guess (hey the only dip in emissions came during the 2008/9 fiscal crisis). But don't delude yourself that it will be anything other than catastrophic. 

We might want to live in a system that can accommodate degrowth and a rapid transition. But we don't.  We live in a global system that will fail if and when we do what needs to be done (pull Greta's emergency brake).  And when it fails, billions of people all over the world will be unemployed, bewildered, bereft, and scared.  That's what we are facing.

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3959
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 414
  • Likes Given: 47
Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #156 on: December 19, 2018, 04:42:06 AM »
And this is exactly what the IPCC statement says is needed. The system needs to change with CO2 emissions dropping by 45% in 12 years and carbon neutral in 32. Airline travel will be the least of the gut wrenching disruptions that are needed if we are to survive.

bbr2314

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1794
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 161
  • Likes Given: 51
Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #157 on: December 19, 2018, 07:13:49 AM »
The Ebola outbreak in DRC continues to worsen.

Today's sitrep shows 542 confirmed cases, 96 suspected cases, and 319 deaths.

That is a weekly increase (12/10->12/17) of 44 confirmed cases, 23 suspected cases, and 34 deaths. Or, +67 versus one week prior.

So, we are at approximately 636 total cases and 319 deaths, with a weekly increase of 67 cases and 34 deaths.

11/19: 444 / 217
11/26: 495 / 241 (+51 / 24)
12/03: 516 / 260 (+21 / 19)
12/10: 569 / 285 (+53 / 25)
12/17: 636 / 319 (+67 / 34)

At the same stage of the West African outbreak, the below numbers were occurring -- a weekly increase of +137 cases, and 94 deaths.

6/22: 567 / 350
6/29: 704 / 444

However, there are several major differentials between the current outbreak and the 2014 outbreak.

1) We have an effective vaccine, albeit in limited supplies. Out of an estimated 300,000 total doses, almost 49,000 have now been used.

2) The current outbreak is in a single nation, and seems to be more geographically contained (for now). However, it is also an active war zone with ongoing civil strife that has repeatedly hampered medical efforts.

Considering these two factors, it is apparent that if not for the vaccine, the current outbreak would be easily outpacing 2014's numbers. Unfortunately, even WITH the vaccine, this is now the second largest outbreak on record, the largest in DRC's history, and is spreading within urban areas. The number of new cases and deaths each week, WITH vaccine, are still rising exponentially.

Archived reports:

https://us13.campaign-archive.com/home/?u=89e5755d2cca4840b1af93176&id=aedd23c530

This is a very bad situation. The week-over-week increases in new cases have been sustained for the past month after briefly dropping at the end of November. I would imagine there are higher numbers than what are being reported as well due to the fact that guerilla rebels have actively been attacking Ebola clinics and kidnapping patients (.... not the brightest bunch).

At the current pace of the epidemic, there will be over 1,000 cases by 2/1. And if it accelerates in the next few weeks, that number could be reached by 1/15. I would anticipate Western media fervor over the epidemic to begin ratcheting upwards at that point. By the time we reach 2/1, the vaccine supply will likely be substantially exhausted, with ~150,000 doses remaining

So, buying stock in MERCK is probably a good bet, as they are the only producers of the current vaccine, and there is likely to be substantial media hysteria as the current outbreak seems to be spreading even WITH the substantial containment efforts. And as weekly new case counts potentially surpass 100+ (we are now 2/3 of the way there), the number of contacts / vaccinations will also increase exponentially.

On a final note: I am beginning to suspect Ebola is now behaving much more like an STD than it has traditionally. Rape and pillaging are still the norm in parts of the DRC where the outbreak is spreading wildly, and it would not surprise me if there are infections occurring in the latency period AFTER symptoms have abated for some of those infected with the virus. This is very troubling and potentially allows a much higher r-naught compared to areas where rape and pillaging are not the norm. Beyond the civil strife, perhaps this is the confounding variable influencing the current trajectory of the disease? Because nothing else really makes sense at this point.

Monthly numbers, BTW:

08/17: 103 / 50
09/17: 148 / 66 (+45 / 16) +43%
10/17: 234 / 109 (+86 / 43) +58%
11/17: 432 / 214 (+198 / 115) +84%
12/17: 636 / 319 (+204 / 105) +47%

vs. West Africa 2014

3/29: 103 / 66
4/29: 248 / 157 +140%
5/29: 309 / 204 +24%
6/29: 704 / 444 +127%
7/29: 1323 / 729 +87%
8/29: 3116 / 1607 +136%

It appears we are currently at a "make or break" moment for transmission. We shall see what happens next. It is interesting to note that the monthly numbers in the West African outbreak experienced an up-and-down see-saw from month to month. DRC's outbreak has seen lower overall spread but more consistent growth, which is potentially more alarming in the long-term if containment is not achieved. The West African "see-saw" would also argue that January is probably going to be a very bad month.

Also re: vaccine -- after doing more digging it appears stockpile is now running out rather quickly in the outbreak region.

On 12/5, there were 4,290 doses available. After delivery of 2,160 new doses, the stockpile still decreased to 4,060 doses. This is down from 4,530 doses available as of two weeks ago, and in the past week alone, there have been 4,421 vaccinations.

Week 49 report: http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/276677/OEW49-0107122018.pdf

Week 50 report: http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/277186/OEW50-0814122018.pdf
« Last Edit: December 19, 2018, 07:52:23 AM by bbr2314 »

dnem

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 315
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 110
  • Likes Given: 53
Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #158 on: December 19, 2018, 01:23:28 PM »
Airline travel will be the least of the gut wrenching disruptions that are needed if we are to survive.

Ok, I guess we're on the same page after all.  My point was just that plucking just that one little thing - airline travel - that everyone points to as low hanging fruit, will be incredibly gut wrenching.  Essentially untenably so. Damned if we do. Damned if we don't.

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3959
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 414
  • Likes Given: 47
Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #159 on: December 19, 2018, 08:24:38 PM »
Airline travel will be the least of the gut wrenching disruptions that are needed if we are to survive.

Ok, I guess we're on the same page after all.  My point was just that plucking just that one little thing - airline travel - that everyone points to as low hanging fruit, will be incredibly gut wrenching.  Essentially untenably so. Damned if we do. Damned if we don't.

It is why I posted the analysis of meat production and consumption upthread. Nearly 20% of anthropogenic emissions are due to meat production. No way we get where we need to without drastic reductions in the consumption of meat. Arguing about this point is futile.

vox_mundi

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1607
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 618
  • Likes Given: 110
Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #160 on: December 19, 2018, 09:22:06 PM »
Would Human Extinction Be a Tragedy?
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/17/opinion/human-extinction-climate-change.html

Quote
... what I am asking here is simply whether it would be a tragedy if the planet no longer contained human beings. And the answer I am going to give might seem puzzling at first. I want to suggest, at least tentatively, both that it would be a tragedy and that it might just be a good thing.

To make that case, let me start with a claim that I think will be at once depressing and, upon reflection, uncontroversial. Human beings are destroying large parts of the inhabitable earth and causing unimaginable suffering to many of the animals that inhabit it.  ... there is no other creature in nature whose predatory behavior is remotely as deep or as widespread as the behavior we display toward what the philosopher Christine Korsgaard aptly calls “our fellow creatures” in a sensitive book of the same name.

But there is more to the story. Human beings bring things to the planet that other animals cannot. For example, we bring an advanced level of reason that can experience wonder at the world in a way that is foreign to most if not all other animals. We create art of various kinds: literature, music and painting among them. We engage in sciences that seek to understand the universe and our place in it. Were our species to go extinct, all of that would be lost.

... suppose a terrorist planted a bomb in the Louvre and the first responders had to choose between saving several people in the museum and saving the art. How many of us would seriously consider saving the art?

So, then, how much suffering and death of nonhuman life would we be willing to countenance to save Shakespeare, our sciences and so forth?
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

bbr2314

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1794
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 161
  • Likes Given: 51
Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #161 on: December 19, 2018, 11:08:10 PM »
Would Human Extinction Be a Tragedy?
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/17/opinion/human-extinction-climate-change.html

Quote
... what I am asking here is simply whether it would be a tragedy if the planet no longer contained human beings. And the answer I am going to give might seem puzzling at first. I want to suggest, at least tentatively, both that it would be a tragedy and that it might just be a good thing.

To make that case, let me start with a claim that I think will be at once depressing and, upon reflection, uncontroversial. Human beings are destroying large parts of the inhabitable earth and causing unimaginable suffering to many of the animals that inhabit it.  ... there is no other creature in nature whose predatory behavior is remotely as deep or as widespread as the behavior we display toward what the philosopher Christine Korsgaard aptly calls “our fellow creatures” in a sensitive book of the same name.

But there is more to the story. Human beings bring things to the planet that other animals cannot. For example, we bring an advanced level of reason that can experience wonder at the world in a way that is foreign to most if not all other animals. We create art of various kinds: literature, music and painting among them. We engage in sciences that seek to understand the universe and our place in it. Were our species to go extinct, all of that would be lost.

... suppose a terrorist planted a bomb in the Louvre and the first responders had to choose between saving several people in the museum and saving the art. How many of us would seriously consider saving the art?

So, then, how much suffering and death of nonhuman life would we be willing to countenance to save Shakespeare, our sciences and so forth?
It would only be sad if the stupid liberals like the writer of this article were the ones that survived.

Red

  • Guest
Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #162 on: December 20, 2018, 11:15:11 AM »
This is how civilized peoples work! Looks like they want their cake and eat it too.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/dec/20/japan-to-resume-commercial-whaling-after-leaving-iwc-report
“Japan’s official position, that we want to resume commercial whaling as soon as possible, has not changed,” the official told the Guardian. “But reports that we will leave the IWC are incorrect.”

Red

  • Guest
Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #163 on: December 20, 2018, 12:07:39 PM »


In an oxbow lake along the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, a breathy sigh pierces the surface stillness as one of China’s most endangered animals comes up for a gulp of hazy air.

A slick black back with no dorsal fin arches briefly above the water line before plunging back down.

Such glimpses of the shy Yangtze finless porpoise, the only aquatic mammal left in China's longest river and known in Chinese as the "smiling angel" for its perma-grin, are increasingly rare.

Pollution, overfishing, hydroelectric dams and shipping traffic have rendered them critically endangered, worse off even than China's best-known symbol of animal conservation, the panda.

China's government estimates there were 1,012 wild Yangtze finless porpoises in 2017, compared to more than 1,800 giant pandas, which is no longer endangered.

https://news.yahoo.com/smiling-danger-china-finless-porpoise-fights-survive-042244641.html

Red

  • Guest
Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #164 on: December 20, 2018, 12:13:31 PM »
https://www.sciencealert.com/shark-numbers-off-the-coast-of-australia-are-falling-and-there-s-little-sign-of-recovery

"We were surprised at how rapid these declines were, especially in the early years of the shark control program. We had to use specialist statistical methods to properly estimate the declines, because they occurred so quickly," says Brown.

Bruce Steele

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1458
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 127
  • Likes Given: 10
Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #165 on: December 20, 2018, 05:40:50 PM »
Nearly 20% of anthropogenic emissions are due to meat production.

I'd love to see the several credible sources with the data this 20% is based upon - and over what time frames it's applying to.

Every source of emissions as well as every cause of land use that results in compromised carbon sinks needs changing. There is plenty of evidence that on a global scale transformation of forests into pasture results in reduced terrestrial carbon sink capacity. Farming rice results in increased methane sources .
Cement production , transportation, electric production , every source needs radical transformation.
Re. Meat consumption, I would suggest price is what controls most people's meat consumption rate.
Governments subsidies for commodities like corn , soybeans, and other crops largely fed to livestock ,as well as fossil fuel subsidies ,results in cheap meat, cheap grains, overpopulation and overconsumption.
Vegetables are Not subsidized and compete against government manipulated markets. I suggest we end all government manipulation of energy and food production. Meat prices will spike, people will eat less of it. Food prices should reflect the true costs of production and transport costs. 
 SH would argue that some people will starve. I would argue that too many people is too many people.
I said radical change and yes if they can't feed themselves there will be less people. We will have to accept plenty of misery and death as a result of our greed and lack of self control over over human reproduction. This is the rub, we want to maintain our "humanity" even if it means killing the planet.
If we could ask all the species we are driving into extinction about whether they believe humans concept of humanity is a failed and false rationalization for our actions what do you think they'd say.
 Lurk, I imagine SH has you blocked so he can see your post and answer your query . Vegetarians get kinda righteous and although a lot less meat consumption is undoubtably a good thing it is but a small portion of how we collectively need to change .   

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3959
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 414
  • Likes Given: 47
Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #166 on: December 20, 2018, 07:14:01 PM »
 
 SH would argue that some people will starve. I would argue that too many people is too many people.


??????? 93% of agricultural land is used to raise livestock. Drastically reducing meat consumption would free up enough land to easily feed everyone on the planet.

Bruce Steele

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1458
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 127
  • Likes Given: 10
Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #167 on: December 20, 2018, 07:58:00 PM »
SH, Do you think 97% of the Salinas valley is used for livestock? The Calif. Central Valley ? No
Nevada deserts , well yes but it won't produce much anything else. Ditto a large portion of the Southwest .
 I agree we need to cut back on meat consumption , we could do it by charging people for the true costs of their bad habits. You don't have any idea about how to get people to make any change.
People aren't going to quit drinking milk in the U.S. Forget it. They might change their food habits if they are forced to pay more for the meat and milk they consume.
 You keep dropping claims without sources. Religious conviction isn't much of an arguement .
I could live without cars or planes or ff heating in my house. I could live without computers or phones.
I am getting ready even if the day never comes. I have doubts about living without meat or eggs if I had to live off what I could produce. How close are you to living without all the above, how close are your children or grandchildren to living off the grid ? I assume you are well off and comfortable. 
 There has to be a bridge between the past where we lived without fossil fuels and the future where they are gone. I don't believe technology will be of much use . The earth is going to be a brutish, hot and unpredictable. Wishful thinking ain't getting us out of paying the piper.
 

wili

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2589
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 163
  • Likes Given: 301
Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #168 on: December 20, 2018, 09:10:35 PM »
"although a lot less meat consumption is undoubtably a good thing it is but a small portion of how we collectively need to change"

https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/7/14/15963544/climate-change-individual-choices

Certainly smaller than some others, but not insignificant--one of the top six in the first chart at this article. And has the advantage of being relatively easy to do, and immediately healthful for your body (unless you do 'vegan junkfood diet'! :)

But yeah, as the article says, not being rich is the over all best chance to contribute less. Even in the US, the homeless folks I work with every day hardly contribute anything--no car, definitely no flying (and we serve them hearty vegetarian...usually vegan...soups, with most of the veggies being saved from the dumpster from the local groceries, that is the stuff that I don't grow in my urban farm! :) )

Having one kid--or better, NO kids--is really big, especially if they grow up to live the standard high consumption lifestyle of most Americans. (My solo child moved to the Netherlands, so hardly ever is in a car, and definitely eats plant based, with an occasional fish thrown in. But if she continues to have an annual flight to visit Dad, that a bunch of that will be canceled out! :/ )

Then travel, now the biggest overall contributor, over electric power generation, tho that's obviously still important...we technically get all wind, and have helped local businesses get solar roofs.

As to how much corn goes into cows: "Nearly half (48.7 percent) of the corn grown in 2013 was used as animal feed." That doesn't count the leftovers from ethanol production that goes to cattle, so I think we can say well more than half. Feeding that and soybeans directly to people would definitely allow those calories and nutrients to go much, much further (not to mention saving lots of water).

But when I promote plant-based diets, I always say, "If you're raising or hunting all or most of your own meat sources, give yourself a pass." We couldn't all do that, of course, but most wouldn't want to anyway. For the rest, committed meat eaters who give anything close to a flying f about the earth and climate change...they should all be the biggest chearleaders for veganism and vegetarianism, since that allows more of the relatively small quantity of meat that can sustainably be grown for them! :)
« Last Edit: December 20, 2018, 09:20:14 PM by wili »
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

magnamentis

  • Guest
Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #169 on: December 20, 2018, 09:31:15 PM »
just consider all that not all of us share the same metabolisms.

if meat would be reduced by law i'd have to get a prescription for it because anything sugar (carbo hydrates)make me ill within 3 days and not just a bit but seriously and i'm not alone by far.

i have to stick to proteins including eggs and vegetables while vegetables don't provide sufficient energy. further after a good portion of past i get hungry and after a good portion of protein i can stay 16-20 hours without food without any issues.

whoever is really interested should read about such things before making claims to deprive many people of the only digestible and healthy energy providing food.

this does not mean i can't do with a nice spaghetti, pizza or bread which  i love a lot but only once in a while and a big siesta will follow suit due to an immense energy drop during digestion.

and don't think something's wrong, it's just about different metabolisms and there are many of this kind (blood group 0+ mostly) while many are not even aware that they eat "poison" and it's a bit worse when aging, meaning that the impact is more hammer like than 40-50 years ago when i was young.

one thing that helps against fatigue and muscle rigidity would be an extended walk or any other kind of medium strong activity but that only helps against the immediate consequences while long term consequences will not be avoided much through sport.

what i'm trying to tell form first hand experience is that as usual things are not so easy and the real problem is not that people eat meat but that there are too many people populating this planet and too few of them have access to natural products and depend on industrialized production proteins in too high quantities.

there is more to this which would go beyond the scope of this place, was more meant like making people who have no issues with carbos that there are others and they are many, albeit less in number.




Bruce Steele

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1458
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 127
  • Likes Given: 10
Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #170 on: December 20, 2018, 10:10:44 PM »
US annual farm subsidies are about $20 billion a year and a lot of the commodities produced support cheap meat.
US annual fossil fuel subsidies are about $20 billion a year and agriculture is benefited by that largess.

I don't know how other parts of the world subsidizes their commodity producers but I am sure they do.
Eliminating those subsidies would have many knockdown effects but reduced meat consumption would surely be one of them. 
Carbon emissions would go down. That is the goal IMO. It would include painful downsides, all options will.
This thread has been moved to a place like other politics have been moved. I think it affords some leniency. I would prefer that talk about extinction ( ours or others ) to be pursued with solutions in mind. Maybe my ideas are harsh but it is a brutal subject. Think of how many other species are going extinct as a direct affect of subsidized agriculture.
 I spent several years trying to make a living growing vegetables. Everything about commodities and fuel subsidies make that near impossible on small acreage. There is a reason most CSA ( community supported agriculture )operations fail but competing with subsidized corporate agriculture is large among them.
 

josh-j

  • New ice
  • Posts: 72
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 13
  • Likes Given: 102
Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #171 on: December 20, 2018, 11:06:37 PM »
We might want to live in a system that can accommodate degrowth and a rapid transition. But we don't.  We live in a global system that will fail if and when we do what needs to be done (pull Greta's emergency brake).  And when it fails, billions of people all over the world will be unemployed, bewildered, bereft, and scared.  That's what we are facing.

I suspect you may be right, but this really makes me think. Why is it that we are so seemingly incapable of working out how to carry on the basics of "mass survival" even though millions of people (billions globally of course) are no longer employed?

What is it about our way of doing things that is so set in its ways that we expect billions of people to die rather than be able to work out a more sensible way of surviving on this planet?

I don't doubt that there is probably a terrifying bottleneck looming but it frustrates me so much that it doesn't have to be this way, if it wasn't for our own pigheaded approach to change and systems thinking. We have the resources; population, yes, is sky high - but with proper planning and people actually engaging in a systems-thinking approach, it can be reduced. I see no reason why the population should necessarily be rapidly reduced (by which, remember, we are talking about mass death and suffering on a huge scale) to whatever the carrying capacity of Earth really is all over the course of a few years or decades. (But the way we're going...)

It seems to me that we have the potential to undergo managed decline and avoid the most horrific outcomes. Call it the physical potential if you want. Yet it all seems so impossible because we have the system we have, people aren't thinking outside the confines of that system, and what thought people have for the future has been warped within the system too; retirement somewhere in the sun, and all the rest of it.

It's depressing. Deeply so.

But also, at least for me right now, its incredibly frustrating and verging on comedically ridiculous. Humanity can do so much better, can we not? What are we playing at?

Apologies - I don't have the depth of thought or understanding as many of the other posters here. I'm very grateful for this discussion. For now, for me, the dark comedy of humanity's current predicament shall take hold - and I'll drink another cider! Or not; there is an Extinction Rebellion event tomorrow in my local area  :o

Archimid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2355
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 283
  • Likes Given: 184
Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #172 on: December 21, 2018, 01:16:56 AM »
If climate change is dangerous because it threatens food supplies, intentionally lowering food supply is not a solution to climate change. There must be ways to get food without emitting CO2 or agricultural runoff. This is a solvable problem. The only thing needed is the will to do it.

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Bruce Steele

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1458
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 127
  • Likes Given: 10
Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #173 on: December 21, 2018, 03:00:26 AM »
 "This is a solvable problem."  I have lived off of the food I produced without fossil fuel . So at least at an extremely individual level yes it can be done .  Feeding those 20 million souls that live a hundred miles south of here without CO2 emissions or fossil fuel use is Not even close to possible . Nobody even talks about the difficulty of the task. Everybody here knows we need to get to zero carbon, correct ? We don't currently have the technology to feed the current population without emissions and the future declines in agricultural production from climate change will only exacerbate our dilemma .
 So this is where I say our humanity is screwing with the goal. The goal is to get to zero or insure a damn big extinction event. We have no idea how to feed ourselves without BAU and BAU is death. So saying you are more worried about how many people any system can support , or worried how we can feed 8 or 10 billion souls is totally getting the wagon in front of the horse. How do you feed ANY of us with zero carbon emissions ? You gotta have some idea how to feed yourself and several other people first, a small village next, and then maybe a city or two. Claiming this is possible without any way to maintain modern agriculture is just wrong.  Well it's wrong when nobody is trying anyhow. I doubt is is possible at the scale  necessary  but that doesn't stop me from working at it at least on one small farm.
I haven't really even had any interest in how I can farm without  fossil fuel . Strange the future we see coming and the disconnect with current preparations. Faith , religion, or optimism just don't get us where we need to go. Better start getting scared cause reality is going to be vicious.

wili

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2589
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 163
  • Likes Given: 301
Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #174 on: December 21, 2018, 04:37:18 AM »
Bruce wrote: "Nobody even talks about the difficulty of the task. Everybody here knows we need to get to zero carbon, correct ? We don't currently have the technology to feed the current population without emissions and the future declines in agricultural production from climate change will only exacerbate our dilemma .
 So this is where I say our humanity is screwing with the goal. The goal is to get to zero or insure a damn big extinction event. We have no idea how to feed ourselves without BAU and BAU is death. So saying you are more worried about how many people any system can support , or worried how we can feed 8 or 10 billion souls is totally getting the wagon in front of the horse. How do you feed ANY of us with zero carbon emissions ? You gotta have some idea how to feed yourself and several other people first, a small village next, and then maybe a city or two. Claiming this is possible without any way to maintain modern agriculture is just wrong.  Well it's wrong when nobody is trying anyhow. I doubt is is possible at the scale  necessary  but that doesn't stop me from working at it at least on one small farm.
I haven't really even had any interest in how I can farm without  fossil fuel . Strange the future we see coming and the disconnect with current preparations. Faith , religion, or optimism just don't get us where we need to go. Better start getting scared cause reality is going to be vicious."

For the record, I pretty much agree with all of this. We are in what can only be called a predicament, now. Getting to some remotely good place without tons and tons of absolute misery and death is now out of reach. I am ready to head to the next world or the void or whatever at any time, but in the mean time, I do to some extent try to get the low hanging fruit--divert some of the vast waste of our culture to sustaining some of the people least responsible for our current catastrophe, and start the long, difficult process of trying to learn how to raise food on relatively small bits of urban land. But I know as I go past blocks and blocks of high rises full of people that it will always be impossible for even a fraction of them to follow my example.

Also for the record, I am more deeply impressed by Bruce's efforts than nearly anything else I have ever heard of. I hope he keeps reporting on both progress and setbacks, as both are highly valuable and interesting.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Bruce Steele

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1458
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 127
  • Likes Given: 10
Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #175 on: December 21, 2018, 06:10:13 AM »
Wili, Thanks . Not sure I deserve it . I have to get more info up as the annual start to my food challenge approaches . I got about three acres worked with the pig bio tractor this summer. There is a nice cover crop growing on it right now.  We have had a little rain and it's nice with everything green.
Squirreled away potatoes , dried corn, acorns, amaranth, dried summer squash, spelt and winter squash. I will put in a winter garden soon with what's left from last years compost pile. Really the only thing different from fifty years ago is the bio and the solar power. Otherwise very retro.
 Cannibus legalization has presented itself as a temptation . I think I will resist the money temptation but there is crazy big money going down around here. On good information over a million per acre in profit. I always thought that pot was for fun and any time it was for something else trouble was near.
Anyway I have my task ahead of me and getting rich isn't necessary to prove what I am trying to prove. What I am doing would easily scale to village scale food production. Cities are just such an incredible food challenge. Although I can't quite rap my brain around feeding the cities I still think feeding millions of small towns is a viable tragectory.
 Sorry if I get all dark sometimes. There is still a lot we can do for our part. I am sure planting my garden is part of what I need . I need to know one man can produce 20,000 lbs. food without fossil emissions . I need to know what I am doing will scale. On those fronts things are rosy . You'd think it would temper my dark inclinations but one day in LA traffic and reality sinks in.
 
 

sidd

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4928
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 335
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #176 on: December 21, 2018, 06:22:13 AM »
Mr Steele, how do you winnow the amaranth ? Have you a tractor attachement or ...?

sidd

Bruce Steele

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1458
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 127
  • Likes Given: 10
Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #177 on: December 21, 2018, 07:14:21 AM »
Sorry Sidd but I am very primitive in my technique. I harvest wild red stem pigweed aka. Amaranthus.
Plants in a field don't ripen evenly and easily scatter so wild amaranth lends itself to hand harvest.With some good thick gloves I go out with a big paper bag, put it over the ripe plant, push the plant and bag horizontal then beat the hell out of it. Pour the seeds and chaf into a container and repeat on next plant. Dry the chaf and seed.
I winnow with a bowl on windy days. It is the easiest seed to winnow because the chaf is very light.
The biggest problem is grinding amaranth. The seed is very small and surprisingly hard. I use a small electric coffee grinder but I already went through my first one cause it wasn't really meant to crank on amaranth for minute or two.
Ground Red stem pigweed seed makes a beautiful purple gravy that goes well with baked potatoes .

Rather far afield .
« Last Edit: December 21, 2018, 07:24:04 AM by Bruce Steele »

sidd

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4928
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 335
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #178 on: December 21, 2018, 07:45:17 AM »
Neat. That's how i harvest a number of seeds myself. I use transparent plastic bags so i can sorta see whats going on.

Is pigweed an annual or a perennial ?

sidd

TerryM

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5214
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 395
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #179 on: December 21, 2018, 09:09:58 AM »
My harvesting of amaranthus was into paper bags. I brought them home and within a few days found I'd hatched an amazing crop of flies.
That was ~10 years ago, and it damn near cost me a perfectly serviceable, and well loved wife. She convinced me to leave the weeds alone, and to leave the marketing in her more experienced hands.


I fear that we apartment dwellers will be simply swarm out of our unusable abodes, and after stealing whatever food is available locally we'll spread to rural areas like a famished plague of locust. We'll probably provide a bit of protein for any better armed brigands, but thousands will succeed long enough to kill all your livestock and pillage your fields and stores.


In the American South West for thousands of years the Anasazi not only practiced cannibalism, they dried and preserved their feces as a "second harvest". The Anasazi were agriculturalists with a deep understanding of how to survive without fossil fuels, refrigeration or modern technology.


By the time the Spanish arrived the Paiute lived in isolated family groupings, having lost all knowledge of tribal life, agriculture, clothing, or architecture. For a thousand years they had even forgotten how to make or use bows and arrows. The Spanish knew them as the rat eaters, though in fairness they certainly feasted on lizards from time to time.


We'll have none of the advantages of the Anasazi. How many generations before we end up in circumstances similar to the early Paiute, living naked under piles of brush?
Terry

Ktb

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 143
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 48
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #180 on: December 21, 2018, 10:17:40 AM »
I fear that we apartment dwellers will be simply swarm out of our unusable abodes, and after stealing whatever food is available locally we'll spread to rural areas like a famished plague of locust. We'll probably provide a bit of protein for any better armed brigands, but thousands will succeed long enough to kill all your livestock and pillage your fields and stores.

This seems to be the most likely scenario. Once stockpiles run dry in cities, the populace will expand. I would hazard a guess that deer populations will be decimated within weeks of collapse.
I have amazing news for you. Man is not alone on this planet. He is part of a community, upon which he depends absolutely.
- Ishmael

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • *****
  • Posts: 7173
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 713
  • Likes Given: 467
Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #181 on: December 21, 2018, 10:19:40 AM »
Let's not have The Road-type discussions (referring to that horrible post-apocalyptic movie).
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

TerryM

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5214
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 395
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #182 on: December 21, 2018, 01:14:06 PM »
Let's not have The Road-type discussions (referring to that horrible post-apocalyptic movie).
OK - But, eliminating the discussion won't do a thing to mitigate a situation that a number of our children may be faced with. If not Road Warriors, certainly cherishing "Second Harvests" carefully preserved for sustenance in the lean times.


It's horrible to contemplate, but it's fairly recent history that will be repeated on a much broader scale.
Contritely Yours
Terry

kassy

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 755
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 272
  • Likes Given: 325
Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #183 on: December 21, 2018, 02:04:22 PM »
Changing our meat consumption would help to feed a lot more people:

Current global food production is sufficient to meet human nutritional needs in 2050 provided there is radical societal adaptation

The current production of crops is sufficient to provide enough food for the projected global population of 9.7 billion in 2050, although very significant changes to the socio-economic conditions of many (ensuring access to the global food supply) and radical changes to the dietary choices of most (replacing most meat and dairy with plant-based alternatives, and greater acceptance of human-edible crops currently fed to animals, especially maize, as directly-consumed human food) would be required. Under all scenarios, the scope for biofuel production is limited. Our analysis finds no nutritional case for feeding human-edible crops to animals, which reduces calorie and protein supplies. If society continues on a ‘business-as-usual’ dietary trajectory, a 119% increase in edible crops grown will be required by 2050.

https://www.elementascience.org/articles/10.1525/elementa.310/

So it would both save the planet and a lot of human suffering.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Bruce Steele

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1458
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 127
  • Likes Given: 10
Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #184 on: December 21, 2018, 03:37:35 PM »
Kassy , I would like to repeat my point. Yes we can feed the world but it takes enormous amounts of energy to do so. BAU. If we are going to try to get to zero emissions then we have to figure out how to produce food without burning fossil fuels. Just that simple. So we get to choose between feeding 8-10 billion people and cooking the planet. Any ideas on how you propose to cure the dilemma ?

wili

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2589
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 163
  • Likes Given: 301
Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #185 on: December 21, 2018, 05:00:52 PM »
Thanks again, Bruce. Over a million per acre, wow! I assume that comes with increase risks of theft. Probably not a lot of people lurking around trying to steal your acorn mast :)

 "feeding millions of small towns is a viable tragectory"

That's what many of us have been talking about for quite a while, but there doesn't seem to be much of a trend in that direction yet. Back a bit, Astyk had a book called '5 million farmers' calling on a return to the land. Again, not many harkening to that call.

One more question, and sorry if it's been already discussed to death. Around here, there is now quite a bit of wind electricity generated in the middle of good farm land, and more every year. I have seen some examples of electric farm equipment, but haven't kept up with developments on that front. Is this one way that zero or near zero emissions farming could be accomplished on a largish scale?
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Nemesis

  • Guest
Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #186 on: December 21, 2018, 05:34:50 PM »
1.3 billion tons of food (that's roughly 1/3 of global food production) is wasted every single year and the trend is rising: By 2030 foot waste is expected to rise up to 2 billion tons per year. Interesting facts about gigantic food waste:

https://feedbackglobal.org/knowledge-hub/food-waste-scandal/

Reminder:

Almost 1 billion people globally suffer from malnutrition. Hail capitalism and multinational corporations, the *only* savior! Merry xmas.

Nemesis

  • Guest
Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #187 on: December 21, 2018, 05:38:21 PM »
Example Canada:

"Food waste: How much food do supermarkets throw away?"


Bruce Steele

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1458
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 127
  • Likes Given: 10
Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #188 on: December 21, 2018, 06:12:40 PM »
Wili, I have seen large battery /electric tractors in the R and D phase . I haven't seen prices attached or hours of use between charging. I imagine a big assed power cable might work also something like overhead power for electric trains.
 I use a very small wheel hoe cultivator that is battery /electric and love it. Quiet and nimble for getting close to young plants or drip tape. Scale is a very real issue however. Tillage takes lots of power that my little tool can't deliver.
I think "trajectory" is going the wrong way re. a return to land movement. One downside to legal Cannibus is that it is syphoning young talent away from food production but the wine industry does the same thing. We have been losing farmers with talent as they retire due to age. We have not been adding young farmers at even a replacement rate so there are less farm stands and local ag ( food )production than 20 years ago, at least locally.
 My buddy farming Cannibus is harvesting two crops a year of 1,000 lbs. per crop. His profit is over a million and that is after the state takes it's $300,000 tax cut. It is no wonder young farmers are tempted to change focus. Beats my wages which are much closer to minimum wage.Property taxes are 1% here so that one Cannibus operation is paying the same taxes as 30 million dollar mansions. I think the money is good enough to hire full time security guards and you can see them sitting in their cars at the gates for the larger operations . Just Santa Barbara county alone has over 400 acres in Cannibus hoop house production. There is a small backlash from vintners or the otherwise rich residents but the tax monies involved have government siding with the new industry. Getting high enough or drunk enough to ignor our collective environmental concerns may be the new trend.  In the words of Cyndi Lauper " money changes everything." The lack of money changes everything too and I am sure the Mexican drug cartels are trying to figure their way into new "legal" opportunities. If trump wanted to pay for his wall he should have cut a deal to nationally legalize weed and tax it  to the hilt. Anyway I live at the center of the new Cannibus trade operations here in California .
 During fall harvest season the smell of skunk weed is so strong I can't smell the pigs on my own farm. 
There is a thirty acre operation about a mile away upwind.
« Last Edit: December 21, 2018, 06:39:51 PM by Bruce Steele »

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3959
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 414
  • Likes Given: 47
Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #189 on: December 21, 2018, 06:31:22 PM »
Nearly 20% of anthropogenic emissions are due to meat production.

I'd love to see the several credible sources with the data this 20% is based upon - and over what time frames it's applying to.

 Lurk, I imagine SH has you blocked so he can see your post and answer your query . Vegetarians get kinda righteous and although a lot less meat consumption is undoubtably a good thing it is but a small portion of how we collectively need to change .

I only have a couple of people blocked and Lurk is not one of them. I'm struggling to find the link to the 20% but here is a link that suggests it is more like 14%.

http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/197623/icode/

I will continue to search for the source that supports the higher number and will post it if I can find it.

Why am I focused on meat? First, full disclosure.... I am not a vegetarian.

I am, however, absolutely convinced that the latest IPCC report which stated that we need to reduce our GHG emissions by 45% by 2030 and be carbon neutral by 2050 to avoid catastrophic climate change is real.

Lurk...If your argument is with the IPCC report conclusions, then there is really no need for further discussion.

How in the world are we supposed to do this?

All...if the answer is we can't so don't worry about it, then there is really no need for further discussion.

Whatever methods we choose will be highly disruptive to our current state, BAU path.

All...if the answer is that climate change will mostly wreak havoc on the poor and vulnerable (nations and individuals alike) and you're a resident of a wealthy country that can adjust with a minimum of difficulty so relax, then there is really no need for further discussion.

So why meat, you ask?

Most methods to drastically reduce anthropogenic emissions (renewable energy, electric cars , trucks, trains and planes etc.) will require enormous investments and a great deal of time, the latter we have very little of left.

What about meat? How do we cut meat consumption by 80%. What investments are needed to hit this target. Simply stop eating it. This is in my old manufacturing career terms, low hanging fruit. Easily implemented with no investment of scarce resources, simply a change in behavior.

And if the answer is you cannot expect human beings to change their behavior then there is really no reason for further discussion as every single method to reduce emissions so quickly and dramatically will require changes in behavior.

Oh...and then we truly are fucked.
« Last Edit: December 21, 2018, 06:45:58 PM by Shared Humanity »

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3959
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 414
  • Likes Given: 47
Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #190 on: December 21, 2018, 06:48:39 PM »

There is a thirty acre operation about a mile away upwind.

You always want to be upwind from a cannabis farm.

Bruce Steele

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1458
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 127
  • Likes Given: 10
Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #191 on: December 21, 2018, 07:54:08 PM »
SH, I find different agricultural emissions numbers ranging from 9% to 17% for the US. I think we are energy hogs with agriculture contributing less here than other parts of the world only because we fly, and drive and live in big houses with big appliances .
 From the EPA ,agriculture contributes 9% with cattle contributing one third of the total . Even if total agriculture is more like 20% I would think the one third from cattle is probably a fair assessment . I keep saying I agree that reducing meat consumption is a good idea but it is far from enough.
 I have sincere doubts about livestock utilizing 93% of arable land however. Maybe part of the discrepancy of emission figures has to do with assigning an emissions number for the farming emissions from livestock feed production.
 My biggest disagreement is with your premise that meat is low hanging fruit.  No hamburgers, no milkshakes, and abject poverty for vast swaths of middle America.  I think food prices would be a potential disincentive that far exceeds volunteerism . Subsidies cause distortions in food choices and they are intended to do so. Keeping the public fat and happy may be a contributing factor. Again I am proposing a radical shift and telling farmers they need to forego 20 billion in subsidies is radical. Keeping those middle American republican votes requires the subsidies to be maintained and Trump threw an additional 5 billion to farmers yesterday to compensate for his trade war damage. At the same time he is shutting down the government to get a similar 5 billion dollar wall number. So democrats are willing to cooperate on ag subsidies ,not on a wall.
 None of this addresses the damage that subsidized commodity dumping has on artisanal farmers in the third world . Like I said earlier it sucks for vegetable operators also.
Dump the fuel and energy subsidies
Dump the agriculture subsidies
Wait for the chaos that follows to crash the GDP and resulting in meaningful reductions in emissions.

Yes I realize the fact that I can feed myself probably affects my suggestions but more people need to take up the challenge of feeding themselves. That to me is the real low hanging fruit but it is probably necessary to load the scales in people's decision matrix. Pain and hunger are big motivators..


https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/sources-greenhouse-gas-emissions#agriculture

wili

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2589
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 163
  • Likes Given: 301
Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #192 on: December 21, 2018, 09:03:22 PM »
Thanks again, Bruce. Interesting about cannabis, but also about vineyards. I was just trying to brush off my Latin with Cato the Elder's De Agri Cultura (~160 BC) and noted that his advise to new farmers was that of all the use you could put farms to, grape vines was his first choice. Mast orchards (glandaria ) were fifth or sixth, about the same as orchards combined with grape vines. Grain was pretty far down, too, probably because they were already getting lots of cheap grain from North Africa by then.

Anyway, I, at least, do appreciate your updates.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Archimid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2355
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 283
  • Likes Given: 184
Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #193 on: December 22, 2018, 02:58:41 AM »
If we are going to try to get to zero emissions then we have to figure out how to produce food without burning fossil fuels.

  We know how to produce food without burning fossil fuels. If the world was powered by 100% renewables then all the infrastructure required to grow food on a massive scale would be emissions free, by definition. That reduces a very significant amount of agricultural emissions.

  The problem that remains is actually growing the food. I'm not entirely clear what is the net atmospheric CO2 change of the global average crop. If growing the world's food supply is carbon negative then we must grow more food. If growing the world's food supply is significantly Carbon positive then the problem must be examined further.

The consensus seems to be that meat is significantly carbon positive. I can see that being true. Animals are more energetic beings than plants. But there are ways to reduce animal emissions. The low hanging fruit would be to feed animals only emissions negative food. If that can be done, then the emissions from the animals will be at least partially offset.

We know how to do it. We just got to do it.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

oren

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4461
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 863
  • Likes Given: 1282
Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #194 on: December 24, 2018, 07:53:47 AM »
Well said SH (the whole post). Meat is the low hanging fruit indeed.
There is one other low hanging fruit as humanity prepares (not) for the 2050 catastrophe: less and late reproduction. If all women globally would each have a maximum of only one baby, and no earlier than at the age of say 27, so many resources will be saved that can be diverted to fixing the predicament we are in and will be in by 2050. Starvation is a terrible fate I do not wish on anyone, but not being born is not a tragedy, and having only one kid is not a tragedy.
I am not optimistic of course, none of this would get done, but from a systemic point of view this is the obvious humane solutions that can make so many other partial solutions much more viable, as it buys them time and reduces their overall requirements..

Ktb

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 143
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 48
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #195 on: December 24, 2018, 10:17:41 AM »
I would like to point out that carbon neutrality, once again, is only a piece of the puzzle at this point. We know that there has been significant soil degradation, requiring more fertilizers, which in turn cause more degradation and damage to the local ecosystems. Soil viable for farming is estimated to run out (at current rate of use) by the 2050s.

Some interesting reading I found regarding climate change and soil, among other things.
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5694c48bd82d5e9597570999/t/5979f38ad2b857fc87921632/1501164439392/GLO_Part_2_Ch_6.pdf
I have amazing news for you. Man is not alone on this planet. He is part of a community, upon which he depends absolutely.
- Ishmael

Ktb

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 143
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 48
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #196 on: December 24, 2018, 10:31:31 AM »
Quote
recent evidence suggests the public is growing largely indifferent to this and other environmental problems

Excellent reading on the current crisis for amphibians. And above, the root of all our environmental and climate change related problems.


 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decline_in_amphibian_populations
I have amazing news for you. Man is not alone on this planet. He is part of a community, upon which he depends absolutely.
- Ishmael

vox_mundi

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1607
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 618
  • Likes Given: 110
Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #197 on: December 26, 2018, 05:34:50 PM »
Bruce; you may be aware of this site already - but it's a good resource for sustainable grain seed, etc.

https://www.sherckseeds.com/seeds/grains/

p.s. I'd go with sorghum, millet, or upland rice. Maybe camelina as an oil crop

https://www.sherckseeds.com/seeds/special-use-garden-plants/camelina/

Good luck.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

sidd

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4928
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 335
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #198 on: December 26, 2018, 09:20:00 PM »
Re: camelina as oil crop

I have grown and crushed camelina. The seeds are tiny, smaller than canola, have to change out speeds, feeds and filters on the crusher, might take more than one pass. In my experience, canola is easier, and higher yield. Another thing i noticed was that the fraction of waste in camelina crop (non camelina seed debris) coming out of the seed cleaner was larger also, perhaps this can be alleviated with better setting on the combine.

sidd

Bruce Steele

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1458
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 127
  • Likes Given: 10
Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #199 on: December 27, 2018, 04:31:01 AM »
Vox, Thanks for the link to the seed source. Also appreciate all of Sidd's experience with farming and oil crops. Wish there was somewhere that would serve as a primer to others interested in small scale bio production and could offer up working examples. Because I approach farming from a micro scale that uses very little equipment I doubt I have much to offer most farmers but I probably could educate someone like a gardener ramping up to feed dozens. Sidd uses oil seed crops and oil presses for bio feedstock to power equipment .I let lard hogs ( they are different than meat hogs ) do what they do best ,eat and get fat. So my bio feedstock is self propelled and biologically motivated to replicate.
 Anyway extinction and all the damage currently taking place should inspire more ideas about how we can individually and collectively move forward. Counterintuitively  it has a tendency to cause people to bury their heads which is just one more tragedy . I have younger relatives who refuse to read up on the subjects that are everyday discussed here on the ASIF. They make it clear they would prefer to Not hear. For me problems are challenges looking for solutions but for others they are threats to their preferred lifestyles. This is where I am conflicted . Yes reality is profoundly sad but that is no reason to give in . I am not a wreaking ball however . I hope to make a farm that works to both feed and educate
people not yet ready to walk back their expectations . If there were multiple examples of others farmers and their working farms I think it might find an audience. Sidd and his efforts are one example , I am another. There must be many others but I couldn't point anyone to a place where our separate but similar experiences and farms can be showcased. A serious media effort isn't my forte but I suppose I need to up my game. Someone needs to search out good examples... for the living things passing.