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The Walrus

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #500 on: July 31, 2020, 02:24:31 AM »
To survive long-term, polar bears need a good platform of sea ice from which to hunt seals. In short: no sea ice = no polar bears.[/b][/i]
No argument here.  However, there is no indication that all thrice will be gone any time soon.

oren

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #501 on: July 31, 2020, 02:50:58 AM »
Great. So we have the article on one hand, and the claims of The Walrus on the other hand. Whom should I believe?
Would you care to list your points of contention with the article's assumptions? And explain how your claims are supported by data and science?

Full PDF:
https://www.arctictoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/PolarBearPersistence-Final-NCC-Study.pdf
« Last Edit: July 31, 2020, 03:05:53 AM by oren »

The Walrus

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #502 on: July 31, 2020, 04:38:07 AM »
I already did.  Why should I repeat myself?  Just read the previous posts.

oren

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #503 on: July 31, 2020, 06:22:26 AM »
Let me summarize your claims, copied from your posts above. My text is in bold:
* The article is "just a repeat of inaccurate information." Any specifics?
* Polar bear hibernation period decreases by 30% or more thanks to warmer winter temperatures. Polar bears do not hibernate. And where does this 30% number come from? Source?
* No decrease of polar bear numbers helps diffuse this kind of misinformation. Polar bear numbers have rebounded following bans and regulation of hunting. Regardless of that, the article makes calculations of future declines of bear populations, not of present declines, so this is irrelevant.
* Polar bears do much worse when there is more sea ice, as there is no place to hunt for seals. This is just flagrant misinformation. Polar bears do most of their hunting in winter. The seals have to breath and thus are to be found somewhere. According to Wikipedia, their preferred habitat is the annual sea ice covering the waters over the continental shelf and the Arctic inter-island archipelagos. These areas, known as the "Arctic ring of life", have high biological productivity in comparison to the deep waters of the high Arctic. The polar bear tends to frequent areas where sea ice meets water, such as polynyas and leads, to hunt the seals that make up most of its diet. Polar bears are able to produce water through the metabolism of fats found in seal blubber, and are therefore found primarily along the perimeter of the polar ice pack, rather than in the Polar Basin close to the North Pole where the density of seals is low. So as can be seen the bears follow the seal population. They hunt seals in breathing holes, seals resting on the ice, and raid the birth lairs that female seals create in the snow.
* When asked "Which assumptions do they make that are not supported by the data?" You respond by twisting some sentence from the article that says there cannot be any data linking low ice extremes with population declines because such extremes have not happened yet, therefore they made estimates of calories. But you do not list any wrong assumptions.
* When confronted with "bears do not hibernate" you admit it, but then explain about "waking hibernation", a state which does not exist, and which you confuse with denning which only applies to females with newborn cubs.
* As the winter temperature warms, less nutrition is required to maintain body temperature. This effect, if it exists, applies only to denning females. And does the effect exist? How strong is it? I guess we just have to take your word for it.
* Polar bears do not fatten up in winter, as the solid sea ice prevents hunting.  Rather, they catch seals in spring and early summer. when the ice begins to break up and seals emerge from their dens. This is unbelievable flagrant misinformation. Polar bears have their main hunting season in winter, again except for denning females. Seals have breathing holes or they die.
* I am not sure than anyone truly knows how much ice is optimal.  We do know that no ice or all ice makes seal hunting nearly impossible. This is in your imagination. There is no such thing as all ice, but if there were there would be no seals in that location. The bears follow seal populations and can hunt them in >90% ice concentrations.
* Since the bears are known to travel large distances for food and are not territorial, the theory is that they will simply move to optimal hunting grounds. Specific bears are not territorial but the subpopulations display seasonal fidelity to particular areas, though DNA studies show that they are not reproductively isolated. In addition, the individuals in a subpopulation tend to reuse the same denning areas each year.
* Speculation is that Greenland and the Canadian archipelago would be the top choice, as ice remains there year-round, and melting could open up more water holes.  The issue would then become how many bears the area could support. If the area can support more polar bears, why aren't there more polar bears there now? As Wikipedia says, the relationship between ringed seals and polar bears is so close that the abundance of ringed seals in some areas appears to regulate the density of polar bears, while polar bear predation in turn regulates density and reproductive success of ringed seals. But in any case the study estimates most regional subpopulations will disappear, you suddenly seem to agree with it.

To summarize, you are sowing misinformation while accusing scientific studies of misinformation. It has taken me over an hour to go over your claims and read up on the subject. The innocent reader may take you word for it, not knowing your history on the forum and especially considering that you filled up the thread with your posts on the subject, thus achieving local numerical superiority. I think this has gone far enough.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_bear
https://arctickingdom.com/its-polar-bear-week-profiling-their-seasonal-habits-challenges/

blumenkraft

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #504 on: July 31, 2020, 07:58:07 AM »
Quote
Brandolini's law, also known as the bullshit asymmetry principle, is an internet adage which emphasizes the difficulty of debunking bullshit: "The amount of energy needed to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude bigger than to produce it."

Link >> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brandolini%27s_law

We have this a lot here. I wish we wouldn't have this.

Walrus, i have homework for you. Read this:

On Bullshit is a 2005 book (originally a 1986 essay) by philosopher Harry G. Frankfurt which presents a theory of bullshit that defines the concept and analyzes the applications of bullshit in the context of communication. Frankfurt determines that bullshit is speech intended to persuade without regard for truth. The liar cares about the truth and attempts to hide it; the bullshitter doesn't care if what they say is true or false, but rather only cares whether their listener is persuaded.

Free to read here >> http://www2.csudh.edu/ccauthen/576f12/frankfurt__harry_-_on_bullshit.pdf
"Is a thin line 'tween heaven and here" - Bubbles

sidd

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #505 on: July 31, 2020, 08:50:27 AM »

The Walrus

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #506 on: July 31, 2020, 02:32:50 PM »
Oren,
Yes, the polar bear population increased significantly after the 1973 hunting ban.  Most predictions are based on current trends.  The current trend for the polar bear population has been stable at around 25,000 since the 1980s.

https://www.sctimes.com/story/opinion/2019/12/27/despite-public-perception-polar-bear-population-stable/2738256001/

The polar bear main hunting season is not in winter.  Talk about misinformation.  Perhaps you need to search beyond Wikipedia.

https://polarbearscience.com/2018/07/03/spring-feeding-for-polar-bears-is-over-sea-ice-levels-are-now-largely-irrelevant/

Thick ice conditions in the late winter and early spring have been clearly documented has being much more detrimental to polar bear populations than the decline of summer ice.

https://polarbearscience.com/2013/07/04/great-polar-bear-red-herring-in-the-southern-beaufort/

Yes, these conditions of all ice, resulting in no seals for the bear to dine upon.  This was not my imagination.

There are more polar bears in the Canadian archipelago now.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/polar-bears-migrate-to-canadian-arctic-for-longer-lasting-ice-study-1.2900256

https://www.alaskapublic.org/2015/01/07/canadian-archipelago-likely-to-become-important-polar-bear-conservation-region/

Predictions of future polar bear declines are just as you state - predictions of future decline.  This has been repeated for decades as always future declines, but never materialize in the present.

The Walrus

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #507 on: July 31, 2020, 03:05:31 PM »
Quote
Brandolini's law, also known as the bullshit asymmetry principle, is an internet adage which emphasizes the difficulty of debunking bullshit: "The amount of energy needed to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude bigger than to produce it."

Link >> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brandolini%27s_law

We have this a lot here. I wish we wouldn't have this.

Walrus, i have homework for you. Read this:

On Bullshit is a 2005 book (originally a 1986 essay) by philosopher Harry G. Frankfurt which presents a theory of bullshit that defines the concept and analyzes the applications of bullshit in the context of communication. Frankfurt determines that bullshit is speech intended to persuade without regard for truth. The liar cares about the truth and attempts to hide it; the bullshitter doesn't care if what they say is true or false, but rather only cares whether their listener is persuaded.

Free to read here >> http://www2.csudh.edu/ccauthen/576f12/frankfurt__harry_-_on_bullshit.pdf

Yes.  I am trying to counter the bullshit presented by some.  It is obvious that some are trying to persuade others with their posts or references to others that do likewise.

The Walrus

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #508 on: July 31, 2020, 06:29:43 PM »
Great. So we have the article on one hand, and the claims of The Walrus on the other hand. Whom should I believe?
Would you care to list your points of contention with the article's assumptions? And explain how your claims are supported by data and science?

Full PDF:
https://www.arctictoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/PolarBearPersistence-Final-NCC-Study.pdf

Oren,

Directly from the paper, adult bear starvation does not increase until 200 days of fasting for males and 225 days for females (dropping to 110 days for full lactating females).  No days were listed for cubs, except to say it was less than adults.  One of the more precarious areas for the polar bears is Western Hudson Bay, which has been most affect by rising temperatures and sea ice decline.  In the 1980sm before the commencement of sea ice decline, the bears averaged a 107-day fast.  In the early 2000s, that increased to 130 days, due to earlier breakup of sea ice.  Ice-free days in Hudson Bay have changed appreciably since.  Even in this most vulnerable area, polar starvation is not an issue.

https://polarbearsinternational.org/news/article-polar-bears/feast-or-fast/

vox_mundi

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #509 on: July 31, 2020, 08:28:12 PM »
Quote from: Walrus
...  In the 1980sm before the commencement of sea ice decline, the bears averaged a 107-day fast.  In the early 2000s, that increased to 130 days, due to earlier breakup of sea ice.  Ice-free days in Hudson Bay have changed appreciably since.  Even in this most vulnerable area, polar starvation is not an issue [Implied - currently].

 ... Walrus, your strawman argument with implied rebuttal has absolutely nothing to do with the conclusions of the paper.

The paper addresses future intersection of trends ...

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0818-9

Abstract: ... Here, we establish the likely nature, timing and order of future demographic impacts by estimating the threshold numbers of days that polar bears can fast before cub recruitment and/or adult survival are impacted and decline rapidly. Intersecting these fasting impact thresholds with projected numbers of ice-free days, estimated from a large ensemble of an Earth system model4, reveals when demographic impacts will likely occur in different subpopulations across the Arctic. Our model captures demographic trends observed during 1979–2016, showing that recruitment and survival impact thresholds may already have been exceeded in some subpopulations. It also suggests that, with high greenhouse gas emissions, steeply declining reproduction and survival will jeopardize the persistence of all but a few high-Arctic subpopulations by 2100. Moderate emissions mitigation prolongs persistence but is unlikely to prevent some subpopulation extirpations within this century.









Food-web

Ice-adapted algae grow on the underside of the ice, which krill feed upon. Arctic cod and other fish species eat the krill, which are in turn consumed by ringed seals, the most abundant seal in the Arctic and the primary prey of polar bears. If one link in this cycle is broken, the entire marine food chain is at risk.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

kinbote

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #510 on: July 31, 2020, 09:02:48 PM »
One obvious advantage of scientific studies vs opinion pieces is the former can discuss the subject comprehensively and with nuance. Pointing to vague predictions (made by whom, in what context, what timelines, with what criteria, etc?) about the imminent decline of Polar Bears and saying they haven't happened yet, therefore they are all wrong, strikes me as deliberately disingenuous.

Also of some note, the website "polarbearscience.com" and author Susan Crockford, has ties to The Heartland Institute and the Global Warming Policy Foundation, and was rebutted in a BioScience study "Internet Blogs, Polar Bears, and Climate-Change Denial by Proxy"

https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article/68/4/281/4644513

Pimm and Harvey (2000) provided three criteria with which to evaluate the credibility of scientific studies. First and most importantly, follow the data. They emphasized that the data trails of skeptics generally go cold very quickly. Second, follow the money. Some of the most prominent AGW deniers, including Crockford, are linked with or receive support from organizations that downplay AGW (e.g., Dr. Crockford has previously been paid for report writing by the Heartland Institute). Third, follow the credentials. As we have illustrated here, scientists such as Crockford who are described as “experts” on denier blogs in fact typically have little in the way of relevant expertise, and their expertise is often self-manufactured to serve alternative agendas.

blumenkraft

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #511 on: July 31, 2020, 09:22:37 PM »
Also of some note, the website "polarbearscience.com" and author Susan Crockford, has ties to The Heartland Institute and the Global Warming Policy Foundation

Hah, what's up with that, eh Walrus?

Thanks for making that connection, Kinbote.
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The Walrus

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #512 on: July 31, 2020, 10:06:34 PM »
Vox,
It is neither a straw man nor has it nothing to do with the paper.  Their claim is based entirely on the number of fasting days.  The current number of fasting days is nowhere near their proclaimed threshold level for starvation.  Hence, it is entirely relevant.  Especially when one considers that an increase in summer fasting days is accompanied by a decrease in winter fasting days.

Interesting how some will believe an article written by a geophysicist, who is an expert in mountains, over one written by a zoologists, who is an expert in polar bears.  I guess the saying that a man believes what he wants to believe and disregards the rest still holds.

oren

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #513 on: July 31, 2020, 11:07:30 PM »
Well well, polarbearscience.com.
At least now I know what denier blogs you read. Or at least one of them.

vox_mundi

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #514 on: August 01, 2020, 08:21:24 AM »
US: Snake River Dams Will Not Be Removed to Save Salmon
https://phys.org/news/2020-07-snake-river-salmon.html

The U.S. government announced Friday that four huge dams on the Snake River in Washington state will not be removed to help endangered salmon migrate to the ocean.

"The federal failure to remove the dams despite clear supporting science is a disaster for our endangered salmon and orcas," said Sophia Ressler of the Center for Biological Diversity.

Scientists warn that southern resident orcas are starving to death because of a dearth of chinook salmon that are their primary food source. The Pacific Northwest population of orcas—also called killer whales—was placed on the endangered species list in 2005.

Three Republican members of Congress from Washington state hailed the decision.

... the dams have proven disastrous for salmon that hatch in freshwater streams, then make their way hundreds of miles to the ocean, where they spend years before finding their way back to mate, lay eggs and die.

Snake River sockeye were the first species in the Columbia River Basin listed under the Endangered Species Act in 1991. Now, 13 salmon runs are listed as federally endangered or threatened. Four of those runs return to the Snake River.

The Columbia River system dams cut off more than half of salmon spawning and rearing habitat, and many wild salmon runs in the region have 2% or less of their historic populations, according to the Center for Biological Diversity.

On the way to the ocean, juvenile salmon can get chewed up in the dams' turbines.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

bluice

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #515 on: August 01, 2020, 08:40:04 AM »
I guess the saying that a man believes what he wants to believe and disregards the rest still holds.
What he wants or when his salary depends on it. Which way is it for you?

The Walrus

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #516 on: August 01, 2020, 02:46:09 PM »
I guess the saying that a man believes what he wants to believe and disregards the rest still holds.
What he wants or when his salary depends on it. Which way is it for you?
Neither.  I try to look at it from all sides, and decide which is most valid.

KiwiGriff

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #517 on: August 01, 2020, 04:00:20 PM »
Quote
I try to look at it from all sides, and decide which is most valid.
“You are entitled to your opinion. But you are not entitled to your own facts.”

― Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Polar bear science is about   as valid referencing  WUWT or Tony Hella .
You don't need me or anyone else to point out its nonsense all it needs  is  critical thinking and a little time researching your source.
Have a look at her blog it is full of  circular references to her own unpublished work and  her  books for sale not  published peer reviewed  papers. 
Here is the list of  references on her blog.
https://polarbearscience.com/about-2/
Feel free to  find a single peer reviewed paper in a reputable scientific journal on modern polar bear ecology she has published .

This exploitation of polar bears by the  climate denial echo chambers has been explored in depth.
 
Internet Blogs, Polar Bears, and Climate-Change Denial by Proxy
Jeffrey A Harvey, Daphne van den Berg, Jacintha Ellers, Remko Kampen, Thomas W Crowther, Peter Roessingh, Bart Verheggen, Rascha J M Nuijten, Eric Post, Stephan Lewandowsky ...
BioScience, Volume 68, Issue 4, April 2018, Pages 281–287, https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/bix133
Published: 29 November 2017

excerpt.
Quote
Approximately 80% of the denier blogs cited here referred to one particular denier blog, Polar Bear Science, by Susan Crockford, as their primary source of discussion and debate on the status of polar bears. Notably, as of this writing, Crockford has neither conducted any original research nor published any articles in the peer-reviewed literature on the effects of sea ice on the population dynamics of polar bears. However, she has published notes and “briefings” through a conservative think tank, the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF), and is described by them as “an expert on polar bear evolution.” Similarly, the Heartland Institute, another conservative think tank that downplays AGW, describes her as “one of the world's foremost experts on polar bears.” Prominent among blogs giving Crockford's blog disproportionate attention are WUWT and CD, suggesting that her blog reaches a large audience.
For a contrast to Susan  Crockford.
Google the co authors of the linked paper Steven Amstrup, Ian Stirling and Eric Post they are actual world experts on arctic ecology and polar bears . 
 
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The Walrus

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #518 on: August 01, 2020, 05:14:30 PM »
And yet no one has been able to refute the “facts” that I presented, with the possible exception of the controversial term “walking hibernation.”  I use the term facts loosely, as conclusions may change as new research is conducted. 

kassy

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #519 on: August 01, 2020, 05:14:56 PM »
Neither.  I try to look at it from all sides, and decide which is most valid.
After fitting it to your beliefs.

If we go back to the article you can critique methodology or choice of climate scenarios aka actually discussing it. Or you go and drag up some generic ´The Arctic Panda is fine stuff´in #486.

To survive long-term, polar bears need a good platform of sea ice from which to hunt seals. In short: no sea ice = no polar bears.[/b][/i]
No argument here.  However, there is no indication that all thrice will be gone any time soon.

The article discusses up to the 2100 time frame so how do we interpret no indication that all the ice will be gone any time soon´ over that time frame?
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The Walrus

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #520 on: August 01, 2020, 06:23:09 PM »
I would not call that soon, and I question any extrapolation that significantly exceeds the timeframe and constraints of the research.

<It´s not a buffet. They actually discuss that time frame. kassy>

« Last Edit: August 01, 2020, 09:21:19 PM by kassy »

kassy

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #521 on: August 03, 2020, 10:26:28 AM »
Sharks almost gone from many reefs

A massive global study of the world's reefs has found sharks are 'functionally extinct' on nearly one in five of the reefs surveyed.

Professor Colin Simpfendorfer from James Cook University in Australia was one of the scientists who took part in the study, published today in Nature by the Global FinPrint organisation. He said of the 371 reefs surveyed in 58 countries, sharks were rarely seen on close to 20 percent of those reefs.

"This doesn't mean there are never any sharks on these reefs, but what it does mean is that they are 'functionally extinct' -- they are not playing their normal role in the ecosystem," said Professor Simpfendorfer.

He said almost no sharks were detected on any of the 69 reefs of six nations: the Dominican Republic, the French West Indies, Kenya, Vietnam, the Windward Dutch Antilles and Qatar.

"In these countries, only three sharks were observed during more than 800 survey hours," said Professor Simpfendorfer.

...

"We found that robust shark populations can exist alongside people when those people have the will, the means, and a plan to take conservation action," said Dr Chapman.

Professor Simpfendorfer said it was encouraging that Australia was among the best nations at protecting shark populations and ensuring they played their proper role in the environment.

"We're up there along with such nations as the Federated States of Micronesia, French Polynesia and the US. These nations reflect key attributes that were found to be associated with higher populations of sharks: being generally well-governed, and either banning all shark fishing or having strong, science-based management limiting how many sharks can be caught," he said.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/07/200722112647.htm
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vox_mundi

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #522 on: August 04, 2020, 12:42:58 AM »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #523 on: August 04, 2020, 01:44:40 AM »
IIRC, polar bears are the only predator that hunts humans.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

vox_mundi

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #524 on: August 04, 2020, 03:00:20 AM »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #525 on: August 04, 2020, 05:42:58 AM »
Human-eaters
Quote
Crocodile attacks on people are common in places where crocodiles are native. The saltwater and Nile crocodiles are responsible for more attacks and more deaths than any other wild predator that attacks humans for food.
So when it really warms up in the Arctic, if the Polar Bears haven't eaten all of us, the crocs will.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

dnem

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #526 on: August 04, 2020, 01:40:03 PM »
IIRC, polar bears are the only predator that hunts humans.

Mountain lions (Puma concolor) in the US are known to occasionally track humans over extended distances and attack.

Bruce Steele

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #527 on: August 04, 2020, 05:18:36 PM »
I have been tracked by a mountain lion.
 I know six other commercial divers who have been bitten by a great white shark. Only one died because they hunt humans but don’t eat them. Pigs kill and eat humans. Hippos kill lots of humans. Grizzly bears eat humans. So no polar bears are not the only human predator. Not getting into Lex Luther.
 If you took away our guns there would be plenty of predators willing to eat us.

I always used sodium laurel sulfate as a shark deterrent. Soaked a sponge in VO5, put it in a plastic bag with ventilation holes and carried it in a special pocket on my wetsuit.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1023/A:1007612002903

Liquid courage.
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