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Ktb

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #250 on: February 20, 2019, 07:08:45 PM »
The first Global Amphibian Assessment was completed in 2004 and reported the believed extinction of 168 species in the past 30 years, as well as at least 43% (~2470) of amphibian species in decline.
The 2nd Global Amphibian Assessment (GAA2) was completed in December 2018. GAA2 will update us on the state of amphibians (duh) world wide.

If I had to guess, we will see reports of a continued decline in amphibian populations, and likely an upgrade (meaning more at risk) of many species on the IUCN red list.

The major causes of amphibian collapse currently are chytrid fungus (affecting 30% of amphibian species), habitation destruction and fragmentation, environmental degradation and exposure to human activity (toxins), invasive species, increased noise levels, and of course, climate change.


I, for one, am very interested in reading the GAA2 report when it is made available.
« Last Edit: February 20, 2019, 07:16:37 PM by Ktb »
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vox_mundi

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #251 on: February 22, 2019, 03:07:21 PM »
Botswana Mulls Using Elephants for Pet Food
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-47330414

A report by cabinet ministers in Botswana has recommended lifting a four-year hunting ban and the introduction of elephant culling.

After months of public meetings and consultations, the report by ministers also recommends the "establishment of elephant meat canning" for pet food.

With an election due in October, the government has to balance lifting the hunting ban to win rural votes, against the impact it may have on Botswana's international reputation as a luxury safari destination.
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kassy

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #252 on: February 23, 2019, 06:11:07 AM »
Amended threatened species list set to grow as Wet Tropics suffers through extreme heat events

Official recognition that the spectacled flying fox is now an endangered species was bittersweet for those who lobbied for its change in status.

...

CSIRO monitoring showed a 50 per cent loss between 2004 and 2017 and heatwaves this summer have further decimated the remaining population by an estimated 30 per cent.

"After the heat event, the species is probably closer to 'critically endangered'," CSIRO ecologist David Westcott said.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-23/flying-fox-decline-signals-dire-warning-for-health-of-tropics/10838580
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kassy

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #253 on: March 01, 2019, 01:19:48 PM »
The Shells of Wild Sea Butterflies Are Already Dissolving

This long-predicted outcome of ocean acidification experiments has started showing up in the wild.

For more than a decade, laboratory studies and models have warned of the vulnerability of pteropods—tiny sea snails also known as sea butterflies—to ocean acidification. Now those predictions have escaped the lab. From the Gulf of Alaska and the Bering Sea to the Beaufort Sea, scientists are finding pteropods with dissolved shells. Nina Bednarsek, a biogeochemist with the Southern California Coastal Water Research Project, recently presented some of these findings at the Alaska Marine Science Symposium.

...

The pteropod Bednarsek studies, Limacina helicina, is more than just the proverbial canary in the coal mine. One of only two species of pteropod to live in high-latitude waters, this particular species is abundant and critical to Arctic food webs, often dominating zooplankton communities and feeding everything from pink salmon to whales.

Pteropods can patch their damaged shells, but at a cost, Bednarsek explains. “The pteropods are a bit more physiologically compromised—not really feeling very well.” More acidic water triggers stress responses in the pteropods, as well as sucking energy to rebuild their shells. Stressed out pteropods accumulate free radicals, which decompose their lipids and fatty acids. And since these lipids and fatty acids are essential nutrients for juvenile fishes, corroded pteropods make a poor meal, compromising the health of other animals in the food chain.

...

https://www.hakaimagazine.com/news/the-shells-of-wild-sea-butterflies-are-already-dissolving/
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vox_mundi

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #254 on: March 01, 2019, 05:24:21 PM »
Catastrophic Outlook for African Savannahs Due to Rise in CO2 Levels
https://phys.org/news/2019-03-catastrophic-outlook-african-savannahs-due.html

A ground-breaking research study looking at modern and ancient landscapes has discovered African plants could be facing mass extinction faster than once thought.

Scientists from the Lyell Centre, Heriot-Watt University, looked at chemical fossils, with special emphasis on plant vegetable oils preserved in ancient sediments.

The fossils revealed almost 8,000 sub-tropical African plant species from an estimated total of about 23,000 species could become extinct within the next few decades.

The worrying figure amounts to 33 per cent of Africa's contemporary plant diversity, affecting basic ecosystems worldwide.

Academics also claim, the magnitude of biodiversity loss projected for southeast Africa over the next 100 years will be more significant than anything seen in the last 15,000 years or more.
Quote
... "Our study informs us of a possible catastrophic outlook for plants and diversity in this African region and the magnitude of biodiversity loss will be especially pronounced for sub-tropical regions, such as savannahs."

The trend was discovered after researchers looked into the widespread rapid decrease of (sub) tropical biodiversity, including plants during the most recent large-scale global warming event (deglaciation amid 10,000 to 18,000 years ago) that followed the Last Glacial Maximum.

They discovered the decline was due to rapidly rising atmospheric CO2 levels which affected the ability of plants with specialised traits, to complete with more cosmopolitan and faster growing plants like weedy grasses.

Open Access: Clayton R. Magill et al. Isotopic variance among plant lipid homologues correlates with biodiversity patterns of their source communities, PLOS ONE (2019).

-----------------------------------

Population Increases and Climate Change Point to Future US water Shortages
https://phys.org/news/2019-02-population-climate-future-shortages.html#ms

Climate change plus population growth are setting the stage for water shortages in parts of the U.S. long before the end of the century, according to a new study in the AGU journal Earth's Future.

The new study finds climate change and population growth are likely to present serious challenges in some regions of the U.S., notably the central and southern Great Plains, the Southwest and central Rocky Mountain States, and California, and also some areas in the South and the Midwest.

Even efforts to use water more efficiently in municipal and industrial sectors won't be enough to stave off shortages, say the authors of the new study. The results suggest that reductions in agricultural water use will probably play the biggest role in limiting future water shortages.

Simulations show that major additions to storage capacity are ineffectual in the most vulnerable basins due to a lack of water to fill the reservoirs.


Past and projected annual water yield and demand by basin. (a) Water yield in past period (Bm3). (b) Percent change in water yield from past period to mid future period, mean of 14 futures. (c) Water demand in the past period (Mm3). (d) Percent change in water demand from past period to mid future period, mean of 14 futures. Time periods: past (1985–2010) and midfuture (2046–2070).

Open Access: Thomas C. Brown et al, Adaptation to Future Water Shortages in the United States Caused by Population Growth and Climate Change, Earth's Future (2019).

----------------------------------------

Forests, Carbon Sinks, Cannot Make Up for Delays in Decarbonizing the Economy
https://phys.org/news/2019-02-forests-carbon-decarbonizing-economy.html

"Natural climate solutions are not enough" Science (2019).
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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vox_mundi

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #255 on: March 05, 2019, 05:14:34 PM »
Due to Humans, Extinction Risk for 1,700 Animal Species to Increase by 2070
https://phys.org/news/2019-03-due-humans-extinction-animal-species.html

As humans continue to expand our use of land across the planet, we leave other species little ground to stand on. By 2070, increased human land-use is expected to put 1,700 species of amphibians, birds, and mammals at greater extinction risk by shrinking their natural habitats, according to a study by Yale ecologists published in Nature Climate Change.

"Our findings link these plausible futures with their implications for biodiversity," said Walter Jetz, co-author and professor of ecology and evolutionary biology and of forestry and environmental studies at Yale. "Our analyses allow us to track how political and economic decisions—through their associated changes to the global land cover—are expected to cause habitat range declines in species worldwide."

The study shows that under a middle-of-the-road scenario of moderate changes in human land-use about 1,700 species will likely experience marked increases in their extinction risk over the next 50 years: They will lose roughly 30-50% of their present habitat ranges by 2070. These species of concern include 886 species of amphibians, 436 species of birds, and 376 species of mammals—all of which are predicted to have a high increase in their risk of extinction.

These projections and all other analyzed species can be examined at the Map of Life website.

"Losses in species populations can irreversibly hamper the functioning of ecosystems and human quality of life," ... "While biodiversity erosion in far-away parts of the planet may not seem to affect us directly, its consequences for human livelihood can reverberate globally. It is also often the far-away demand that drives these losses—think tropical hardwoods, palm oil, or soybeans—thus making us all co-responsible."

Global habitat loss and extinction risk of terrestrial vertebrates under land-use-change scenarios, Nature Climate Change (2019)

-----------------------------------

Adders are Facing Near Extinction in Britain
https://phys.org/news/2019-03-adders-extinction-britain-national-adder.html

The adder could all but disappear from the UK countryside by 2032, according to new research conducted with the help of citizen scientists.

The findings, published in the Herpetological Journal, are the culmination of 11 years of nationwide monitoring and showed that 90 percent of adder populations surveyed were declining. Experts warn that, if these trends continue, within just 10-20 years adders could be restricted to just a handful of sites in the UK

This is not just bad for adders. Adders are an indicator species. If adders are in serious decline, this suggests many other species who depend on the same habitats are likely to be suffering too. So why are so many adder populations in decline and what can we do about it? The study also identified key threats currently affecting the adder sites. Top of the list was public pressure through disturbance.
« Last Edit: March 05, 2019, 05:22:44 PM by vox_mundi »
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Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Ktb

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #256 on: March 15, 2019, 08:22:01 PM »
Quote
Conservationists say they have found a dead vaquita porpoise, a critically endangered marine animal of which only about 10 remain in the world, in a fish net off the coast of Mexico.

A report published by the IUCN on March 6 states that only about 10 vaquitas remained alive in 2018, as per an acoustic monitoring program conducted in the Gulf, though there is a 95% chance they number between 6 and 22.

“Without immediate, effective action on the part of the Government, the vaquita is doomed to extinction,” the report adds.

http://time.com/5552189/sea-shepherd-vaquita-porpoise-endangered-mexico/
« Last Edit: March 15, 2019, 08:33:53 PM by Ktb »
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kassy

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #257 on: March 18, 2019, 01:30:54 PM »
The 12 Signs That Show We're in The Middle of a 6th Mass Extinction

https://www.sciencealert.com/these-12-signs-show-we-re-in-the-middle-of-a-6th-mass-extinction

Nothing new but a convenient list.

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Gray-Wolf

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #258 on: March 19, 2019, 08:47:42 PM »
We rightly condemn the senseless waste of life that 'haters' cause in their attacks and radicalisation of others and all that brings yet when thousands blink out because of a natural disaster we do not join together and pledge our solidarity against the folk who 'augmented' that disaster making it so deadly?

Maybe " you can't say AGW caused it!" is no defence as , in a warming world, every weather event has 'some' AGW in it. So how many in Africa died because of the AGW 'portion' of that Cyclone???

10%, 5%?

Both would return numbers bigger than the horror in Christchurch cost us yet the paid deniers that allowed us here,with little mitigation,just go about their days as if they have not a care in the world but us 'catastrophists'
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Neven

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #259 on: March 27, 2019, 11:32:34 PM »
Comment from new member:

The Conversation No One Knows How to Have


Interesting to see how abrupt climate change is entering the common discussion without being called what it is.

Today, my fiance and one of my son's teachers were discussing the flooding disaster here in Nebraska. One of them were talking about how bad it was and that people outside of Nebraska and Iowa just do not understand the significance of the damage to food and agriculture that had occurred from the flooding.

This seems to be true. And it may be even non-farmers living in this region do not fully appreciate how bad it is (although it's easier to pay attention and know someone who does). But this sh*t is bad. From the mass destruction of infrastructure and private equipment to the losses of grains both stored from last year sitting out and spoiling in polluted water and more rain. And parts of the region may see more snow and rain Friday-Saturday. But the inability to plant this year as well...eroded soils, polluted soils, soil covered in sand from rivers. In many cases, because of melting of the previously frozen soil with the mass melting and runoff, has now turned to muddy mush. And this is literally one part of the world. Let's not forget all the recent and current disasters impacting our world.

People who say that "this has happened before" because water happened to rise over the bank of a river which flooded before anger me. "The climate is always changing" others say. "We don't know whether this is climate change".

There's denial...blaming our increasingly energetic, steroid-juiced destabilizing climate with more and more explosive extremes on "poor infrastructure" or "building in the wrong places" or "variability"...and then there's simply the equivalent of looking at a terminally ill patient straight in the eye and telling them to get over it, take some meds and walk it off. It's to the point of like..."what??" When we call the variability of a cataclysmic sh*tshow right before our very eyes killing our fellow peoples and species normal, we've gone from denial and bargaining to plain absurdity in the face of the climate and ecological destruction monsters we have released...

Read the rest here: https://www.patreon.com/posts/25635061
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vox_mundi

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #260 on: March 28, 2019, 02:53:11 PM »
In Ancient Oceans that Resembled Our Own, Oxygen Loss Triggered Mass Extinction 
https://phys.org/news/2019-03-ancient-oceans-resembled-oxygen-loss.html

Roughly 430 million years ago, during the Earth's Silurian Period, global oceans were experiencing changes that would seem eerily familiar today. Melting polar ice sheets meant sea levels were steadily rising, and ocean oxygen was falling fast around the world.

At around the same time, a global die-off known among scientists as the Ireviken extinction event devastated scores of ancient species. Eighty percent of conodonts, which resembled small eels, were wiped out, along with half of all trilobites, which scuttled along the seafloor like their distant, modern-day relative the horseshoe crab.

Now, for the first time, a Florida State University team of researchers has uncovered conclusive evidence linking the period's sea level rise and ocean oxygen depletion to the widespread decimation of marine species. Their work highlights a dramatic story about the urgent threat posed by reduced oxygen conditions to the rich tapestry of ocean life.

... The experiments revealed significant global oxygen depletion contemporaneous with the Ireviken event. Compounded with the rising sea level, which brought deoxygenated waters into shallower and more habitable areas, the reduced oxygen conditions were more than enough to play a central role in the mass extinction. This was the first direct evidence of a credible link between expansive oxygen loss and the Ireviken extinction event.

Only about 8 percent or less of the global oceans experienced significantly reducing conditions with very little to no oxygen and high levels of toxic sulfide, suggesting that these conditions didn't need to advance to whole-ocean scale to have an outsized, destructive effect. 

Seth A. Young et al. Geochemical evidence for expansion of marine euxinia during an early Silurian (Llandovery–Wenlock boundary) mass extinction, Earth and Planetary Science Letters (2019)
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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vox_mundi

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #261 on: March 29, 2019, 01:29:49 AM »
Mass Amphibian Extinctions Happening Now Globally
https://phys.org/news/2019-03-mass-amphibian-extinctions-globally-fungal.html



An international study led by The Australian National University (ANU) has found a fungal disease has caused dramatic population declines in more than 500 amphibian species, including 90 extinctions, over the past 50 years.

Lead researcher Dr. Ben Scheele said the team found that chytridiomycosis is responsible for the greatest loss of biodiversity due to a disease.

... "Humans are moving plants and animals around the world at an increasingly rapid rate, introducing pathogens into new areas."

... Dr. Scheele said the team's work identified that many species were still at high risk of extinction over the next 10-20 years from chytridiomycosis due to ongoing declines.

Open Access: B.C. Scheele el al., "Amphibian fungal panzootic causes catastrophic and ongoing loss of biodiversity," Science (2019)

-----------------------

Action Demanded After 1,100 Dead Dolphins Wash Up in France   
https://phys.org/news/2019-03-dolphins-french-shores-year.html

------------------------

New England Seeing a Huge Spike in Beached Sea Turtles 
https://phys.org/news/2019-03-england-huge-spike-beached-sea.html
« Last Edit: March 29, 2019, 02:09:11 AM by vox_mundi »
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xraymike79

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #262 on: March 30, 2019, 04:01:46 PM »
I first discovered the writings of Meteorologist/geoscientist Nick Humphrey with his brutally honest essay The Conversation No One Knows How To Have and since then have followed his posts and comments. He has been featured or quoted in a number of publications such as Mother Jones, New York Times, Washington Post, and Science Alert. Few scientists will publicly tell you how dire things are, but Nick Humphrey is not one to shy away from the truth. What follows is a Q&A interview I held with him on a variety of questions concerning humanity’s future.

Excerpt from interview...

ML: What is the most disturbing aspect of anthropogenic global warming that you are seeing today and what are its implications for the future?

NH: To me, the most disturbing aspect is the destruction of ice on the planet. It is commonly discussed among climate scientists that the planet has a high “inertia”. This means in natural climate change, there is typically a significant lag between what is happening in the atmosphere (rise in greenhouse emissions) and climate response (warming of the planet), forcing a more gradual temperature rise.

There are two very important components of Earth’s inertia.
1) Water (which can gain/lose a huge amount of heat with a gradual temperature change) and 2) Ice.
Ice, in my view, is the biggest climate regulator because it can do two things:
1) In the process of melting and freezing, heat is latent or “hidden”. Meaning it does not contribute to temperature, but to melting (heat gain) or freezing (heat loss) of ice.
2) Ice is white, so as a result, it is a high reflector of visible light, preventing absorption of heat at the surface. So it has a double impact. As the planet loses ice because of warming temperatures, there is less total ice to melt and more heat goes into warming the oceans, land and atmosphere. It takes nearly 80 times more heat to melt ice than to warm the same amount of liquid water by 1 degree C/1.8 degrees F. The less ice there is, the lower the planetary albedo, resulting in more heat entering the climate system, creating a feedback loop to destroy ice faster and accelerating planetary heating. The loss of sea ice in the Arctic is a planetary catastrophe.

The entire interview is here:
https://collapseofindustrialcivilization.com/2019/03/29/concerning-humanitys-future-interview-with-nick-humphrey-climatologist-and-geoscientist/

kassy

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #263 on: April 01, 2019, 01:42:14 PM »
Butterfly numbers fall by 84% in Netherlands over 130 years – study


Butterflies have declined by at least 84% in the Netherlands over the last 130 years, according to a study confirming the crisis affecting insect populations in western Europe.

Researchers analysed 120,000 butterflies caught by collectors between 1890 and 1980 as well as more recent scientific data from more than 2 million sightings to identify dramatic declines in the country’s 71 native butterfly species, 15 of which have become extinct over the last century.

“We are quite sure that the real decline must be much larger,” said Chris van Swaay, of Dutch Butterfly Conservation and one of the co-authors of the study.

...

According to Van Swaay, the main reason for the declines in the Netherlands is modern industrial farming – as carried out across the lowlands of western Europe – that leaves little space for nature.

He said: “Before 1950 or so, grasslands in the Netherlands very much resembled what we now only have left in some nature reserves – they were wet, they had lots of flowers, were lightly grazed and mown only once or twice a year. This was very low-intensity farming.

“In two decades after the 1950s, the countryside was rebuilt – land was drained and planted with one species of grass, large amounts of fertiliser was put on the land, and it was mown six times a year. There is no room for butterflies except on road verges and nature reserves. The countryside is more or less empty.”

and more:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/apr/01/butterfly-numbers-fall-by-84-in-netherlands-over-130-years-study
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kassy

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #264 on: April 04, 2019, 09:05:48 AM »
Great Barrier Reef: Mass decline in 'coral babies', scientists say

89% since unprecedented bleaching events in 2016 and 2017, scientists say.

The events, which damaged two-thirds of the world's largest reef system, are now being blamed for triggering a collapse in coral re-growth last year.

"Dead corals don't make babies," said lead author Prof Terry Hughes, from Queensland's James Cook University.

...

"Across the length of the Great Barrier Reef, there was an average 90% decline from historical [1990s] levels of recruitment," co-author Prof Andrew Baird told the BBC.

'Nothing left to replenish the reef'
Prof Baird said the "pretty extraordinary" decline was unexpected. It was most likely the reef's first re-growth problem on a mass scale, he added.

"Babies can travel over vast distances, and if one reef is knocked out, there are usually plenty of adults in another reef to provide juveniles," Prof Baird said.

However, the bleaching in 2016 and 2017 affected a 1,500km (900 miles) stretch of the reef.

"Now, the scale of mortality is such that there's nothing left to replenish the reef," Prof Baird said.

The study also found that the mix of baby coral species had changed. It found a 93% drop in Acropora, a species which typically dominates a healthy reef and provides habitats for thousands of other species.

The researchers said coral replenishment could recover over the next five to 10 years if there were no future bleaching events.

However, given current estimates, this likelihood was "almost inconceivable", said Prof Baird.

"We've gotten to the point now where local solutions for the reef are almost pointless - the only thing that matters is action on climate change," Prof Baird said.


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-47809500
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Reallybigbunny

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #265 on: April 13, 2019, 10:13:30 PM »
2026 The year all wild animals will be gone.
What's your thoughts?
Follow link below.

https://www.facebook.com/SustainableMan/videos/2173813656273954/


Ktb

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #266 on: April 15, 2019, 02:24:10 AM »
While frightening, extrapolating forward from data points are not a guarantee. Although I have little faith in anything being turned around, I doubt that there will be zero vertebrates, other than humans and their food, on the planet by 2026.
I have amazing news for you. Man is not alone on this planet. He is part of a community, upon which he depends absolutely.
- Ishmael

Klondike Kat

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #267 on: April 15, 2019, 02:44:41 PM »
While frightening, extrapolating forward from data points are not a guarantee. Although I have little faith in anything being turned around, I doubt that there will be zero vertebrates, other than humans and their food, on the planet by 2026.

Extrapolating from two data points?  Not good science.

Ktb

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #268 on: April 15, 2019, 03:27:09 PM »
No doubt. I would not even call it science.
I have amazing news for you. Man is not alone on this planet. He is part of a community, upon which he depends absolutely.
- Ishmael

vox_mundi

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #269 on: April 18, 2019, 03:08:53 PM »


The only place you'll see them is in animal crackers.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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Re: The Anthropocene Extinction
« Reply #270 on: May 03, 2019, 04:28:19 PM »
Perhaps this thread needs renaming to "The Anthropocene Extinction".

My evidence for this suggestion is from a major study about to be released - next Monday.

Climate crisis is about to put humanity at risk, UN scientists warn
Quote

The world’s leading scientists will warn the planet’s life-support systems are approaching a danger zone for humanity when they release the results of the most comprehensive study of life on Earth ever undertaken. Up to 1m species are at risk of annihilation, many within decades, according to a leaked draft of the global assessment report, which has been compiled over three years by the UN’s leading research body on nature.

....the overview of the state of the world’s nature is expected to provide evidence that the world is facing a sixth wave of extinction. Unlike the past five, this one is human-driven.


...an environmental emergency for humanity, which is threatened by a triple challenge of climate, nature and food production.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/may/03/climate-crisis-is-about-to-put-humanity-at-risk-un-scientists-warn
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #271 on: May 03, 2019, 04:55:18 PM »
The "Anthropocene" is a political construct, whereas the "Holocene" is a geological one.
Anthropocene: what (or who) is it for?

With apparent human influence on climate dating back 8,000 - 10,000 years, what's the point of an "Anthropocene" that covers the same time span as the Holocene?
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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #272 on: May 05, 2019, 01:11:22 PM »
With apparent human influence on climate dating back 8,000 - 10,000 years, what's the point of an "Anthropocene" that covers the same time span as the Holocene?

On the other hand, most of this thread is really about the massively escalated rate of extinction that started much more recently than 10,000 years ago. There are probably good arguments on both sides as to whether that is "separate" (nothing is truly separate in these things but at least different enough to be looked at separately) or part of a continuum of human influence on the rest of the planet.

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #273 on: May 05, 2019, 07:23:00 PM »
Of course it is part of a continuum. With industrialization we kicked it into high gear and now we have all kind of satellites and other measures showing us things are getting out of hand and we are still too shallow to stop any of it.

Paul Crutzen proposed the Anthropocene as a term for geology but i guess they are still bickering about the actual demarcation line (the fall out from atmospheric nuclear tests could be one, or soils full of microplastics).

A-Team made a fun geologic ages graph long ago which included it with subdivisions as ´The dumbassic´ which could be now...

Anyway it is all extinctions in the current age.

BBC did an article which has nothing new for followers of this thread but could be interesting to show people rather new to this.

Nature's emergency: Where we are in five graphics
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-48104037
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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #274 on: May 06, 2019, 08:48:56 PM »
UN Extinction Report

The BBC (on-line and on the gogglebox) have made quite a splash on the UN Extinction report. 
Even makes it onto page 1 of Sky News

New York Times have got it on page 1 of their on-line version.
Not on Bloomberg News - not even on their "Climate Changed" section. Disappointing.
Not on Fox news - what a surprise!

You can find the summary report here:-
https://www.ipbes.net/news/ipbes-global-assessment-summary-policymakers-pdf

Presumably a huge report will come out later
______________________________________________________
Quote from Tor...
Quote
The "Anthropocene" is a political construct, whereas the "Holocene" is a geological one.
The Anthropocene Age was suggested by some geologists who calculated that in many ways man was causing greater geological change than natural processes - e.g. man was shifting more rock, sand and earth around the planet than natural processes of erosion. In later geological ages, the rock strata being formed today will have the imprint of mankind in it.
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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #275 on: May 07, 2019, 07:15:48 AM »

Quote
Quote from Tor...
Quote
The "Anthropocene" is a political construct, whereas the "Holocene" is a geological one.
The Anthropocene Age was suggested by some geologists who calculated that in many ways man was causing greater geological change than natural processes - e.g. man was shifting more rock, sand and earth around the planet than natural processes of erosion. In later geological ages, the rock strata being formed today will have the imprint of mankind in it.

Not only has the Holocene already ended, but so has the Quaternary and the Cenozoic. Welcome to the rather cheerfully titled Thanatozoic.

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #276 on: May 07, 2019, 03:47:01 PM »
From an inter-tube search I see a poetic construct:
Quote
Thanatozoic - (invented) - the death of all life
(although I did find a 2011 reference that suggested a different definition)
Humans are powerful, for sure, but we will be unable to put an end to all life!

Next, we'll see an accountant's name for the current geological epoch. ??? ::) :P :'(
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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #277 on: May 07, 2019, 06:41:41 PM »
From an inter-tube search I see a poetic construct:
Quote
Thanatozoic - (invented) - the death of all life
(although I did find a 2011 reference that suggested a different definition)
Humans are powerful, for sure, but we will be unable to put an end to all life!

Next, we'll see an accountant's name for the current geological epoch. ??? ::) :P :'(

All extinct and soon to be extinct species are "sunk costs" and should be ignored when making decisions about the future.

"Sunk Cost Age" has a certain panache to it.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #278 on: May 07, 2019, 06:53:08 PM »
Oh my! LOL  :'(
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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #279 on: May 09, 2019, 07:11:50 AM »
˅
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
-
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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #280 on: May 09, 2019, 02:00:33 PM »
The Holocene Extinction could end up being worse than the Permian:
http://globalwarming.berrens.nl/globalwarming.htm
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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #281 on: May 09, 2019, 02:04:16 PM »
˅

i disagree, we cannot fix it in time but of course we can reduce cause, impact and effect.

this is important because if we use our financial resources to repair something that won't work we shall have less resources available for things that would make a significant change. (efficiency)

on a small scale this appears to be easy while this is way too complicated which is why not much orchestrated action happens and that will probably change once things get a lot easier to analyze which is:

once we're all in deep shit

has been like this in the past and won't change much.

unfortunately IMO the greatest chance to act once a  certain point is reached will be
countries/system that are ruled from upside down like china, russia etc.

democracies will have a hard time to implement changes without revolution-like events and/or wars.

i predict that democracies are not able to deal with the tasks at hand and will fail.

one problem with democracies is that the "voters" are average at best and that's not enough
to take on such complicated tasks, hence we shall see more elite and/or absolutisticly run governments which we all know how they end once the problem is resolved.


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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #282 on: May 15, 2019, 10:34:38 PM »
Many species could be even more likely to go extinct than we realise
https://phys.org/news/2019-05-species-extinct-realise.html

A new study published in the Journal of Applied Ecology found that some methods for measuring a species' generation time might underestimate the likelihood that some species will die out.

... The challenge of accurately assessing extinction risk begins with a lack of data on endangered species. Even for mammals and birds – which are the most well studied groups – population data covers a mere 4.4% of the 1,079 threatened mammals and 3.5% of the 1,183 threatened birds. To bridge the gaps, scientists often rely on assumptions regarding survival, reproduction and generation time.



We found that in some risk assessment models that rely on these assumptions, errors can emerge. This is because population reduction in some of the assessed models is measured on the scale of three times a species' generation time. If a species is believed to mature and produce offspring in five years, then how much its population has declined will be measured over a 15-year interval.

But if a species' generation time is underestimated, population reduction is measured over a much shorter time period. It therefore underestimates how much the population is shrinking and, in turn, the threat status of the species. This can lead us to believe that the species is less endangered than it really is.
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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #283 on: May 23, 2019, 01:38:27 PM »
Study Predicts Shift to Smaller Animals Over Next Century
https://phys.org/news/2019-05-shift-smaller-animals-century.html

Researchers predict the average (median) body mass of mammals specifically will collectively reduce by 25 per cent over the next century. This decline represents a large, accelerated change when compared with the 14 per cent body size reduction observed in species from 130,000 years ago (the last interglacial period) until today.

In the future, small, fast-lived, highly-fertile, insect-eating animals, which can thrive in a wide-variety of habitats, will predominate. These 'winners' include rodents, such as dwarf gerbil—and songbirds, such as the white-browed sparrow-weaver. Less adaptable, slow-lived species, requiring specialist environmental conditions, will likely fall victim of extinction. These 'losers' include the tawny eagle and black rhinoceros.

... "The substantial 'downsizing' of species which we forecast could incur further negative impacts for the long-term sustainability of ecology and evolution. This downsizing may be happening due to the effects of ecological change but, ironically, with the loss of species which perform unique functions within our global ecosystem, it could also end up as a driver of change too."

Findings are published in detail in the journal Nature Communications. 

Open Access: R. Cooke, et.al., Projected losses of global mammal and bird ecological strategies, Nature Communications (2019)

Quote
... The future defaunation explored here also shows parallels to historic extinction events, such as the late Quaternary extinctions, which likely disrupted species interactions, reduced long-distance seed dispersal, and fundamentally restructured energy flow and nutrient cycling through communities. Moreover, a growing number of studies support the hypothesis that the late Quaternary extinctions had cascading effects on small vertebrates and plant community biodiversity and function, resulting in ecosystem shifts comparable in magnitude to those generated by climatic fluctuations   
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gerontocrat

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #284 on: May 24, 2019, 06:56:39 PM »
Whoops.

Homo sapiens goes extinct because their sperm drowns?

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/may/24/toxic-america-sperm-counts-plastics-research
Quote
Sperm counts are on the decline – could plastics be to blame?
 
Research suggests that sperm counts have dropped by half in the last 50 years or so and that a higher percentage are poor swimmers.

A recent study that tested both men and dogs added to concerns that chemicals in the environment are damaging the quality and quantity of sperm
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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #285 on: May 28, 2019, 07:41:14 PM »
Domino Effect of Species Extinctions Also Damages Biodiversity
https://phys.org/news/2019-05-domino-effect-species-extinctions-biodiversity.html

The mutual dependencies of many plant species and their pollinators mean that the negative effects of climate change are exacerbated. As UZH researchers show, the total number of species threatened with extinction is therefore considerably higher than predicted in previous models.

Evolutionary biologists at the University of Zurich, together with ecologists from Spain, Great Britain and Chile, have now quantified how much more of an impact climate change has on biodiversity when these mutual dependencies between the species are taken into account. To this end, the researcher team analyzed the networks between flowering plants and their insect pollinators in seven different regions of Europe.

... Jordi Bascompte gives a specific example to illustrate the results of the study: "In one of the networks situated in southern Spain, the sage-leaved rock rose has a 52 percent predicted probability of extinction caused by climate change in 2080. Should this happen, one of its pollinators, the small carpenter bee, would face a risk of co-extinction as a consequence of losing one of the resources it depends upon. Because the small carpenter bee also pollinates the myrtle, the latter is also under threat of extinction." Thus while the predicted extinction risk of the myrtle considered in isolation is 38 percent, the risk rises to around 62 percent when taking into account the network of interactions.

Open Access: Jordi Bascompte et al, Mutualistic interactions reshuffle the effects of climate change on plants across the tree of life, Science Advances (2019).
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« Last Edit: June 01, 2019, 05:11:09 PM by Tom_Mazanec »
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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #287 on: May 29, 2019, 08:59:30 PM »
Biodiversity loss extreme crisis:
https://www.salon.com/2019/05/27/biodiversity-loss-is-the-very-real-end-of-the-world-and-no-one-is-acting-like-it_partner/

"...humanity has now painted ourselves into a corner where our continued existence can only be met through “transformative” changes to our economic, social, and political systems."

Pretty much says it all.

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #288 on: June 03, 2019, 02:53:34 AM »
Thanks Tom for all those great articles! Makes it very very clear how really truly fucked we are!

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #289 on: June 03, 2019, 08:12:50 AM »
Truly fucked. I agree.

A personal view:
You will think I am a 'doomer' or fatalistic but I think I'm a realist.

The way I follow the effects of AGW and mass extinction etc. is like some disaster tourist watching a train go over the cliff and taking pictures. But I don't enjoy it at all, waiting for the inevitable, and I feel a bit detached because the whole thing is almost unfathomable; we all are on that train. I understand enough to be convinced there's no escape. The proverbial iceberg has already been hit. I don't think there is a future.
It has been difficult to get that reality into my head because it affects everything; no more goals; nothing to plan.
I am not depressed and am in mint condition, had a full life (even at age 53), answered all my life questions and much more and managed to become 'complete'. I've planned euthanasia sometime in the next 10 years.
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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #290 on: June 03, 2019, 01:00:58 PM »
Now we've got extinction deniers:
https://therevelator.org/extinction-deniers/

EDIT: Solenodon extinction worse than polar bear extinction:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jun/01/save-the-solendrons-endangered-species
« Last Edit: June 03, 2019, 01:10:56 PM by Tom_Mazanec »
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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #291 on: June 03, 2019, 01:07:51 PM »
I 'died' a few years ago . While dead I found myself looking down on a train . It derailed as it went round a slight bend .. . I then looked ahead to see a wall to the sky between 2 mountains. I looked over the wall and into the Void . At some stage I thought ' am I dead? ' I found myself looking down on my body and the room in panic . After prolonged discussion with my 'maker' about changes I wanted to make to existence , I was given an opportunity to return to life in a body . my return was as shocking to those around me as had been my earlier death .. 
  we are all on the train .. it is derailing as we watch . My 'way out' is in work I do beyond the physical .
btw Nanning .. death is not the end of anything .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

vox_mundi

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #292 on: June 03, 2019, 07:44:34 PM »
Thanks for sharing that b.c.

I've been following what other travelers to that plane have seen during their life review. We're all here to teach or be taught. And if we're lucky; to discover the true meaning of life.

This one struck me as prescient ...

Quote
... I saw the earth cleansing itself with massive storms and waves in areas where too much dark matter had collected. I saw mass amounts of people were beginning to awaken to things from their past lives even though they had not experienced an NDE. I saw the fall of government systems as we know them. There was a return to innocence, only after the earth purges herself of a vast number of dark energies. The world population was greatly diminished.
...

https://www.nderf.org/Archives/NDERF_NDEs.html

All the world's a stage,
And all the men and women merely players;
They have their exits and their entrances,
And one man in his time plays many parts ...

W. Shakespeare - As You Like It - Act II Scene VII
« Last Edit: June 04, 2019, 01:03:22 AM by vox_mundi »
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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #293 on: June 04, 2019, 05:54:57 PM »
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vox_mundi

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #294 on: June 05, 2019, 04:00:33 AM »
Human Civilization Faces "Existential Risk" by 2050 According to New Australian Climate Change Report 
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/new-climate-change-report-human-civilization-at-risk-extinction-by-2050-new-australian-climate/



A new report by Australian climate experts warns that "climate change now represents a near- to mid-term existential threat" to human civilization. In this grim forecast — which was endorsed by the former chief of the Australian Defense Force — human civilization could end by 2050 due to the destabilizing societal and environmental factors caused by a rapidly warming planet.

The report, entitled "Existential climate-related security risk: A scenario approach," lays out a future where society could collapse due to instability set off by migration patterns of billions of people affected by drought, rising sea levels, and environmental destruction.

"Climate-change impacts on food and water systems, declining crop yields and rising food prices driven by drought, wildfire and harvest failures have already become catalysts for social breakdown and conflict across the Middle East, the Maghreb and the Sahel, contributing to the European migration crisis," the report said.

The new policy briefing is written by David Spratt, Breakthrough’s research director and Ian Dunlop, a former senior executive of Royal Dutch Shell who previously chaired the Australian Coal Association. Retired Admiral Chris Barrie—Chief of the Australian Defence Force from 1998 to 2002 and former Deputy Chief of the Australian Navy—endorsed the report and wrote a forward to it.

"After nuclear war, human induced global warming is the greatest threat to human life on the planet," Barrie wrote.

Using a worst-case scenario existential risk analysis, Spratt and Dunlop depict humanity falling into ruin under an additional 2 degrees Celsius of warming — a threshold scientists say the world is heading towards if current trends continue. In their scenario, "tipping points" occur when humanity fails to institute carbon emission reforms in the 2020s and 2030s. This creates a "hothouse" effect on Earth, leading to rapidly rising sea levels set off by melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet and "widespread permafrost loss and large-scale Amazon drought and dieback."

As a result, the authors say, some of the world's most populated cities — Mumbai, Jakarta, Guangzhou, Tianjin, Hong Kong, Ho Chi Minh City, Shanghai, Lagos, Bangkok and Manila — would have to be abandoned due to their location in the tropical zone.

The assessment ends with a harrowing conclusion: "More than a billion people may need to be relocated and in high-end scenarios, the scale of destruction is beyond our capacity to model, with a high likelihood of human civilization coming to an end."

The report also paints a grim picture in terms of national security, with extreme climate conditions and the disruption of huge populations placing "the internal cohesion of nations ... under great stress."

"The flooding of coastal communities around the world, especially in the Netherlands, the United States, South Asia, and China, has the potential to challenge regional and even national identities," the report warns. "Armed conflict between nations over resources, such as the Nile and its tributaries, is likely and nuclear war is possible. The social consequences range from increased religious fervor to outright chaos."

https://www.breakthroughonline.org.au/papers
« Last Edit: June 05, 2019, 05:07:52 AM by vox_mundi »
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« Last Edit: June 07, 2019, 03:35:37 AM by Tom_Mazanec »
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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #296 on: June 07, 2019, 08:01:52 PM »
Rapid Change in Coral Reefs Prompts Global Calls for a Rethink
https://phys.org/news/2019-06-rapid-coral-reefs-prompts-global.html



Coral reef experts from around the world are calling for an urgent re-evaluation of our climate goals in the light of increasing evidence of unprecedented speed of change to these fragile ecosystems.Coral reefs, which have functioned relatively unchanged for some 24 million years, are now going through profound changes in their make-up.

Writing in a special feature of Functional Ecology, some of the world's leading coral reef experts are asking searching questions about the priorities for reef conservation and reef ecology in the face of these recent and rapid changes, which have far exceeded predictions.

The scientists address issues such as how we should actually define what comprises a functioning coral reef in the Anthropocene, an era where humans are the dominant force of planetary change.

Open Source: Gareth J. Williams et al, Rethinking coral reef functional futures, Functional Ecology (2019)
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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #297 on: June 11, 2019, 03:28:36 PM »
Talking about the Holocene Extinction, what finished off the poster child for it, Ectopistes migratorius? From the descriptions of the flocks, it couldn't have been overhunting...you would have had to give a Gatling gun to every man, woman, child, dog and cat on the continent. You would not be able to dig up a spadeful of dirt without getting a handful of bullets.
Was it habitat destruction of some small breeding area? Something else?
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Sebastian Jones

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #298 on: June 11, 2019, 05:58:46 PM »
Talking about the Holocene Extinction, what finished off the poster child for it, Ectopistes migratorius? From the descriptions of the flocks, it couldn't have been overhunting...you would have had to give a Gatling gun to every man, woman, child, dog and cat on the continent. You would not be able to dig up a spadeful of dirt without getting a handful of bullets.
Was it habitat destruction of some small breeding area? Something else?
Extinction ecology- if there could be such a thing- is an interesting field. We commonly find it hard to accept that we can have as large an effect as seems to be required to drive major extinction events, such as the one you point to. Imagine if you will what it was like for the first people when they arrived in the Americas, a land teeming with gigantic animals. I'm quite certain that the last thing on the minds of these people was the imminent danger of their driving dozens of species and several entire genera extinct. Nonetheless, it happened. For an examination of how, and of extinction theory in general, you can do a lot worse than to read Dr. Peter Ward of the University of Washington. His theories do explain how passenger pigeons could be driven over a cliff, once certain tipping points are reached. Similar to climate effects, these tipping points are rarely visible except in retrospect. To a certain extent, many on this forum- think ASLR- are mostly concerned with seeing these tipping points before they happen.

Tom_Mazanec

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« Last Edit: June 20, 2019, 07:02:16 PM by Tom_Mazanec »
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS