SpaceX

[NeilT]

Yes that was a thought I had too.

Not just landing though. We saw how much velocity was lost when oft-1 started excavating the OLM rather than taking off.

However. I don't expect humans to do most of the work.  That is a task for Optimus.

Also it has been a contention of mine for some time that the first intelligence on Mars will be artificial. The majority of ships are going to Mars to be cannibalised for materials. This is best done by AI bots before the first human lands.

[morganism]

Humans aren't allowed outside because of planetary protection protocols.

OT; Russia's new launch platform (rocket) had a hold, again. Not inspiring confidence.

[nadir]

Optimus? On the Moon? What year are you talking about?

Optimus would-be a delicate robot for domestic use isn’t it? Shouldn’t you use tougher machines for hard work on the Moon?

Man I try to stay away from these threads but your thoughts are so laughable, particularly when you bring Tesla imaginary products to scene. It’s hilarious.

Anyway, keep joking away.

[NeilT]

Nadir, your views often come crashing down on the shore of reality as these companies deliver and deliver and deliver.

The one real failure in recent years was Solar Roof.  It is not dead but Covid certainly did not help and neither did huge inflation.

I suspect it has a far better future in new builds where developers can specify fixed sizes and configurations and 3rd party installers can do the install on the new roof.

Other than that it is a matter of time to deliver, not will to deliver or lies about products.

I see that Toyota has just shipped a brand new 4Ranger off roader with diesel and Hybrid.  After 15 YEARS of not updating the product.

In 15 years Optimus will be developed beyond recognition from the current product apart from it being a bipedal robot.

[nadir]

Nadir, your views often come crashing down on the shore of reality as these companies deliver and deliver and deliver.

What exactly has been delivered since I comment on Tesla since circa early 2022, which is when I started commenting in these threads? Apart from the Cybertruck (very rushed delivery).

Optimus is a joke. The last video folding clothes was clearly scammy, Musk had to rapidly fix his lying tweet with a clarification when someone told him the human operator’s hands were visible in the video. Who believes in Optimus progress when such a level of deception is patent after all the hype for already two years or so?

And you talk about Optimus on the Moon? Are you really that naive? Or are you a religious person, only that instead of believing in God you believe in the supremacy of “these companies”?

[Sigmetnow]

Hard to get well out to sea without impacting the wetlands and all the protected species.

Easy.  The flights back to land are coming down over the ocean, not over land — for that very reason. (Among others.)

See ➡️ pic.twitter.com/bkxS7fNSnt  1 min. SpaceX photorealistic render of booster returning & caught by chopsticks!
 
https://x.com/spacex/status/1776669517860786631

Also:  Although the two oil rigs SpaceX bought for potential offshore landing pads have been scrapped, the company still has plans for that.  A slide from Elon’s recent April update is below. ⬇️

——-

Talking about soft landings - surely a high priority for a moonbase is to make a really strong stable landing pad. Them thar rocks are a big pain.

 
Starship HLS will have self-leveling landing legs, SpaceX says.  And its huge size and weight means that rocks that would topple smaller craft will mostly be crushed by Starship.  But yes, companies are designing the technology to use lunar regolith to manufacture hard surfaces for landing; and for local operations, to decrease the problem of dust contamination.

Not just landing though. We saw how much velocity was lost when oft-1 started excavating the OLM rather than taking off.

One more time: No SuperHeavy booster will be used on the Moon or Mars.  It’s only needed on Earth, due to Earth’s stronger gravity. 

Also, re its speed off the pad: OFT-1 purposely ramped the booster engines slowly, the thought being that it would be a lesser risk to the pad and the rocket with its early engines.  But the slower departure caused the major damage.  Now they ramp and go.

[Sigmetnow]

—- ”And there we freaking have it! #SpaceX just broke a new record. 20 flights and landings with Falcon 9 booster 1062.”
Welcome back to A Shortfall of Gravitas!
🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
➡️ pic.twitter.com/nM01nj74ny  13 sec: the landing.

SpaceX
This booster’s previous missions include GPS III Space Vehicle 04, GPS III Space Vehicle 05, Inspiration4, Ax-1, Nilesat 301, OneWeb Launch 17, ARABSAT BADR-8, and now 13 Starlink missions
4/12/24, https://x.com/spacex/status/1778964420246577414

     —-
Michael Sheetz
ULA CEO Tory Bruno's view on the economics of reusing rockets by propulsive flyback (the way SpaceX does):
"Our estimate remains around 10 flights as a fleet average to achieve a consistent breakeven point ... and that no one has come anywhere close."
 
Eric Berger
Tory’s words of wisdom on reuse seem silly today. SpaceX just launched its sixth rocket in eight days. That’s as many as ULA has in 17 months.
4/12/24, https://x.com/sciguyspace/status/1778968730334064683
Textpics at the link.

 
—- And soon, Starship
Chris Bergin - NSF
It looks like the chopsticks are getting upgraded—this large actuator has been lifted for installation. Maybe this is in preparation for the potential catch on IFT-5?
4/12/24, https://x.com/nasaspaceflight/status/1778810582746948025
 
➡️ pic.twitter.com/kycsW11ALH 10 sec.

 
====
 
—- Meanwhile, we had the last flight of ULA’s Delta IV Heavy rockets.
 
The most metal of rockets has gone into the great mosh pit in the sky
Eric Berger - 4/10/2024
https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/04/the-most-metal-of-rockets-has-gone-into-the-great-mosh-pit-in-the-sky/
 
A comment:
< I think that the fact that you can point to a specific Falcon 9 rocket and say "This rocket has flown more times than all of the Delta IV Heavy's combined" says quite a bit about how our view on rockets and reusability have changed. The D4H is an amazing rocket that does the job well -- a now it is even easier to see what a shame it was to just throw all that work in the ocean after one time.
 
   —
Eric Berger
Callout on the NROL-70 webcast: "Just passed through the Karman line." Further confirmation that Blue Origin is going to buy ULA?
4/9/24, https://x.com/sciguyspace/status/1777742927193579985

[Sigmetnow]

Eric Berger:  NASA is quietly considering major changes to Artemis III.
It is definitely concerning that Orion’s heat shield issues are not yet resolved

NASA may alter Artemis III to have Starship and Orion dock in low-Earth orbit
If it were to happen, a revised Artemis III mission could echo Apollo 9.
Eric Berger - 4/19/2024

Although NASA is unlikely to speak about it publicly any time soon, the space agency is privately considering modifications to its Artemis plan to land astronauts on the surface of the Moon later this decade.

Multiple sources have confirmed that NASA is studying alternatives to the planned Artemis III landing of two astronauts on the Moon, nominally scheduled for September 2026, due to concerns about hardware readiness and mission complexity.

Under one of the options, astronauts would launch into low-Earth orbit inside an Orion spacecraft and rendezvous there with a Starship vehicle, separately launched by SpaceX. During this mission, similar to Apollo 9, a precursor to the Apollo 11 lunar landing, the crew would validate the ability of Orion and Starship to dock and test habitability inside Starship. The crew would then return to Earth. …

An unrealistic timeline
The space agency's date for Artemis II is optimistic but potentially feasible if NASA can resolve the Orion spacecraft's heat shield issues. A lunar landing in September 2026, however, seems completely unrealistic. The biggest stumbling blocks for Artemis III are the lack of a lander, which SpaceX is developing through its Starship program, and spacesuits for forays onto the lunar surface by Axiom Space. It is not clear when the lander or the suits, which NASA only began funding in the last two to three years, will be ready.

There are also concerns about the complexity of Artemis III. It will require a number of previously untested steps, including an Orion-Starship rendezvous and docking in lunar orbit; humans flying inside of Starship in space; Starship going down to the surface and coming back up to dock with Orion; and more. Mission planners would be more comfortable if they could, in NASA parlance, "buy down the risk" of Artemis III by validating some of these delicate maneuvers before the lunar landing mission.

This is why NASA has asked SpaceX to look at a mission where Orion would rendezvous with the Starship vehicle in orbit around Earth. Such a mission—whether called Artemis IIS or Artemis III—would solve a lot of problems for the space agency and appears to be the preferred option at this time. Critically, it would verify the ability of the two spacecraft to dock in an environment where, if there were a problem, it would be much easier for the crew to return safely home. It would also validate the ability of astronauts to live inside Starship and perform some ascent and descent maneuvers.

Perhaps just as importantly, such a mission would allow the space agency to avoid a long gap between Artemis II and Artemis III. No one is quite certain how long it will take SpaceX to deliver a Starship vehicle that is capable of landing safely on the Moon and then taking back off. The company is known for moving very fast in the development phase, but it still has a tremendous amount of work to do with Starship.

SpaceX must get the vehicle flying regularly—which it is close to doing—and then begin conducting refueling tests. These are necessary so that SpaceX can refuel Starship in orbit for a lunar mission, and nothing similar has ever been attempted on this scale. SpaceX must then learn to operate Starship in deep space, land on the Moon, and, critically, take off from the lunar surface a few days later to re-rendezvous with Orion so the astronauts can come home. All of this can be solved by engineering and testing, but it will take time.

A difficult decision
A mission profile that has an Earth-orbit rendezvous with Orion would obviate the need for a lot of that work. Instead, SpaceX would simply need to demonstrate the capability to get Starship into low-Earth orbit with a functional life support system. This is very doable in the next two years. …

https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/04/nasa-may-alter-artemis-iii-to-have-starship-and-orion-dock-in-low-earth-orbit/

[NeilT]

I read that. But as I understand it the spacesuits are a much bigger risk than SpaceX making it with HLS.

If SpaceX have HLS to dock with in LEO, then they have HLS which can go to the moon.  But LEO docking doesn't require a moon capable spacesuit.

[Sigmetnow]

I read that. But as I understand it the spacesuits are a much bigger risk than SpaceX making it with HLS.

If SpaceX have HLS to dock with in LEO, then they have HLS which can go to the moon.  But LEO docking doesn't require a moon capable spacesuit.

It would be easy, but unfair, to blame SpaceX and Axiom for the delays to future Artemis missions. Congress created the SLS rocket with an authorization bill back in 2010, but Boeing actually had been receiving funding for related work dating back to 2007. By contrast, NASA did not start funding work on the Starship lunar lander until late 2021, and the Axiom spacesuits until 2022. In some sense, these developments are as technically demanding as the SLS rocket work, if not more so.

 
Boeing says it will cut SLS workforce “due to external factors”
"Boeing is reviewing and adjusting current staffing levels."
Eric Berger - 4/18/2024
https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/04/amid-schedule-uncertainty-boeing-will-shed-workers-on-sls-rocket-program/

   —-
 
The more interesting take on this is:  while it would be good to test out Orion’s docking systems in LEO,  they could test out HLS Starship in LEO using Dragon to send a crew to dock with it.  Which SpaceX could likely do even before an Orion test would happen.  And having done that, more folks will come to the conclusion:  why spend the billions required to use SLS/Orion at all?

The Polaris (Dragon) EVA suits should be revealed this summer.  No doubt SpaceX is working on their own suits for the Moon and Mars surface.

[NeilT]

Elon has already said that SpaceX could do the spacesuit be cause they are working on their own.

Dragon to HLS and HLS to the moon is possible, but would require some changes to allow it to get back.

Like a fuel.depot at the moon as well as in LEO.

Mind you, a fuel depot at the moon is a given due to the expectation of multiple landings/ascents for the Same HLS.  They would just need a bigger one.

The longer it takes NASA to get ready the more likely SpaceX will overtake them.

[Sigmetnow]

Elon has already said that SpaceX could do the spacesuit be cause they are working on their own.

Actually, he wrote that SpaceX “could do it if need be.” The Dragon EVA suit they are working on is for space, and requires a tether to Dragon, it’s not a surface suit.  SpaceX Moon/Mars suits might be in the design stage but he didn’t want to publicly diss the Axiom suit project…. 🤷‍♀️

Michael Sheetz
NASA's Inspector General says delays in spacesuit development are another factor making a 2024 astronaut Moon landing impossible.
With $420M spent and another $625M expected, suits won't be "ready for flight until April 2025 at the earliest."
Report: oig.nasa.gov/docs/IG-21-025…
 
Elon Musk
SpaceX could do it if need be

8/10/21, https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1425100482779942936

 

Dragon to HLS and HLS to the moon is possible, but would require some changes to allow it to get back.

Like a fuel.depot at the moon as well as in LEO.

Mind you, a fuel depot at the moon is a given due to the expectation of multiple landings/ascents for the Same HLS.  They would just need a bigger one.

It will be some years until moon landings become regular events.  Most of the early missions will probably be uncrewed SpaceX flights, deploying science, rovers, and maybe Starlink.  Some Ships will remain on the lunar surface.  Some will stay briefly, then return rocks and etc. to LEO or Earth surface, but a lunar depot might not be required for a while yet.

Everyday Astronaut
How will lunar starship refuel? It needs to go back to Earth orbit, and then get refueled by multiple tankers to do that round trip each time right? Can’t make methane on the moon sans a large cow farm, right? 😂

Elon Musk
Starship propellant is ~78% oxygen, so an O2 plant on the moon would be enough. Otherwise, we could brute-force it with tankers to low Earth orbit. That’s probably faster.

8/25/20, https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1298426245991063554

[NeilT]

whilst the could do it if needs be was the comment, there had been other information about needing to make suits for Mars.  SpaceX will be doing that themselves.  Although Mars is a somewhat different suit than the moon suit where there is no atmosphere.