GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election

[AbruptSLR]

As there is no specific thread yet on beating the GOP during the 2018 mid-term elections.  In order to reduce the noise from other, but different, threads, this thread is ONLY for posts related to how the GOP are in the process of losing ground in the 2018 mid-term elections.

Title: "GOP civil war in Ohio threatens another special election loss"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/04/30/ohio-special-election-republicans-559697

Extract: "Outside groups are pouring in money as prominent Republicans say nominating the wrong candidate could cost the GOP the district."

[AbruptSLR]

The GOP's disregard for maintaining appropriate environmental regulations will likely motivate voters to vote against GOP candidates in the 2018 elections:

Title: "Republicans have so corrupted EPA, Americans can only save it in the voting booth"

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/apr/30/republicans-have-so-corrupted-epa-americans-can-only-save-it-in-the-voting-booth

Extract: "Few Republicans in power have called for Pruitt to resign. That’s because, as Oliver Milman wrote for the Guardian, despite Pruitt’s unprecedented level of corruption, they support his “deregulation agenda.”
…
As Robert Redford put it,

Pruitt should be replaced by a principled leader who will do what the EPA was intended to do: protect America from men such as Pruitt.

But that’s not going to happen as long as Republicans are in charge, because GOP leaders value polluter profits over public and environmental health, as they proved by nominating and confirming both Pruitt and Wheeler.

For Americans who disagree with those priorities, the only recourse is to make their preferences known in the 2018 and 2020 elections.''

[Daniel B.]

The GOP's disregard for maintaining appropriate environmental regulations will likely motivate voters to vote against GOP candidates in the 2018 elections:

Title: "Republicans have so corrupted EPA, Americans can only save it in the voting booth"

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/apr/30/republicans-have-so-corrupted-epa-americans-can-only-save-it-in-the-voting-booth

Extract: "Few Republicans in power have called for Pruitt to resign. That’s because, as Oliver Milman wrote for the Guardian, despite Pruitt’s unprecedented level of corruption, they support his “deregulation agenda.”
…
As Robert Redford put it,

Pruitt should be replaced by a principled leader who will do what the EPA was intended to do: protect America from men such as Pruitt.

But that’s not going to happen as long as Republicans are in charge, because GOP leaders value polluter profits over public and environmental health, as they proved by nominating and confirming both Pruitt and Wheeler.

For Americans who disagree with those priorities, the only recourse is to make their preferences known in the 2018 and 2020 elections.''

This is not a major issue among the electorate.  Recent polling shows that the environment was the most important issue for just 8% of the voters, tied with terrorism.  This is not important enough to motivate a significant number voters to oust the GOP.  Other issues may result in the GOP losing the House.  The Dems have little chance of winning the Senate, as only 9 GOP seats are being contested this year, with most being quite safe.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/a849k68e2i/econTabReport.pdf

[JimD]

ASLR

Yes. This is the kind of stuff we need.  Forget about rehashing the past election and focus on the future.

[AbruptSLR]

The GOP is a 'House Divided' and as such, they are enduring many self-inflicted wounds during the run-up to the 2018 mid-term elections:

Title: "What to do about the GOP's self-inflicted wounds? | Lowman S. Henry"

http://www.pennlive.com/opinion/2018/04/what_to_do_about_the_gops_self.html

Extract: "There is no problem in which the Republican Party finds itself that it can't make worse.  Such is the case with GOP efforts to defend an increasingly frail majority in the United States House of Representatives.
…
At the moment, it appears the party is doing nothing right and good ole Penn's Woods has contributed mightily to their woes.

Let us count the ways.

Tilt the Playing Field: Years ago national Democrats realized they had no chance of regaining control of congress given the redistricting plans implemented in the several states. 

Rather than wait until 2021 and the next scheduled round of redistricting they set about challenging existing plans in key states such as Wisconsin, North Carolina and, yes, Pennsylvania. To ensure success the Democrats and their labor union allies essentially purchased control of the state Supreme Court. 
…
Special Election Misfire: When a scandal forced the resignation of suburban Pittsburgh Congressman Tim Murphy it looked like a sure bet Republicans would retain the seat. 

President Trump carried the district by nearly 20 percentage points in 2016. 

State Rep. Rick Saccone, R-Allegheny, was selected as the Republican nominee and proved to be a less than stellar campaigner.
…
A House Divided: Congressional Republicans have spent more time fighting each other than engaging the Democrats. On any major vote not a single Democrat will break ranks, but Republicans couldn't agree on the color of the White House. 
…
The Costello Cop Out: Retirements, including the high profile decision by House Speaker Paul Ryan to end his congressional career, further add to the steep hill the GOP must climb. 

To date, 40 Republican congressmen are either retiring or running for higher office. That is far above the historic average of 25 retirements per cycle. Five Pennsylvania Republican congressmen have announced their retirements, the latest being U.S. Rep. Ryan Costello of Chester County.
…
Thus Pennsylvania has become the Keystone state for Democratic efforts to reclaim control of the U.S. House of Representatives. 

And they are doing so with significant help from the GOP itself."

[AbruptSLR]

This is not a major issue among the electorate.  Recent polling shows that the environment was the most important issue for just 8% of the voters, tied with terrorism.  This is not important enough to motivate a significant number voters to oust the GOP.  Other issues may result in the GOP losing the House.  The Dems have little chance of winning the Senate, as only 9 GOP seats are being contested this year, with most being quite safe.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/a849k68e2i/econTabReport.pdf

There are other threads addressing why the Democrats will not do well in the 2018 mid-term elections.  In this thread, please restrict your posts to reasons why the GOP is losing ground in the run-up to the 2018 mid-term elections.

[AbruptSLR]

The GOP establishment leadership are afraid to criticize the outlandish things that Trump says/tweets because they are concerned that if they push him too hard he will form a 3rd party primarily by splintering the Republican Party.  Consequently, I think that they will pay a heavy price during the 2018 mid-term elections by alienating swing voters (Independents, Republicans and Democrats) in the middle.

Title: "The 57 most outlandish, outrageous and offensive lines from Trump's Michigan rally"

https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/30/politics/donald-trump-michigan-speech-annotation/index.html

Extract: " On Saturday night, even as comedian Michelle Wolf was roasting him in Washington, President Donald Trump was in another Washington -- this one in Michigan -- where he was delivering a roast all his own: Of elites, the media, Democrats and anyone else he could think of.

I went through the transcript of Trump's Michigan speech and picked out the most eye-catching lines."

[Daniel B.]

This is not a major issue among the electorate.  Recent polling shows that the environment was the most important issue for just 8% of the voters, tied with terrorism.  This is not important enough to motivate a significant number voters to oust the GOP.  Other issues may result in the GOP losing the House.  The Dems have little chance of winning the Senate, as only 9 GOP seats are being contested this year, with most being quite safe.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/a849k68e2i/econTabReport.pdf

There are other threads addressing why the Democrats will not do well in the 2018 mid-term elections.  In this thread, please restrict your posts to reasons why the GOP is losing ground in the run-up to the 2018 mid-term elections.

The GOP was losing ground during Trump's first full year.  However, that skids seems to have come to an end.  Support for the GOP bottomed out last December, and the Dems held a 13 pt generic advantage.  That advantage has been cut in half since.  The GOP is no longer losing ground, and I truly believe that other issues will outweigh environmental concerns come November.  This will be especially true if no new environmental issue come into the spot light.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html

[AbruptSLR]

The GOP leadership are losing their standing with mainstream US voters on their traditional core issues including: fiscal responsibility, morality and resistance of global authoritarianism; and consequently they will pay a price in the 2018 mid-term elections:

Title: "THE COMPLETE FLIP-OUT"

https://www.bluewave-2018.com/blog/2018/2/16/complete-flipout

Extract: "The Republicans have abandoned their core principles.  The tax and budget bills just passed clearly demonstrate they no longer stand for fiscal constraint.  And their endorsement and support of misogynists, abusers and philanderers is an utter reversal and shockingly wanton dismissal of the moral high ground.  They're adopting practices of fascists and have gone completely soft on Russia.  The reasons are many and storied - and some are yet to be fully revealed - but we've seen this complete flip and they're not coming back.

All the Republican leadership stands for now is themselves and the crony money-grubbers with whom they share mutual benefits.  As a result, we can't count on them to carry the banner for anything useful.  Fiscal constraint?  Gone.  Morality?  Laughable.  Defending America against Russian attack?  They're not only not defending us, they're sympathizers.  Joseph McCarthy is turning over in his grave."

[TerryM]

Is waiting for the other side to implode a strategy?


If they do, we can all hold hands round a campfire and sing Kumbaya. In the meantime doesn't it make sense to nominate some candidates that can win, even if they face strong opposition?


I've followed professional boxing all of my life. Every now and then the better boxer will overlook an opponent, not train as hard as he should, and he'll end up face down on the mat.


The subject here is the GOP losing ground for the coming midterm. I don't believe that to be what the polls are showing us, and I particularly object to it being heralded as a strategy going forward.


We can win if we're willing to put in the work. (and a slew of progressive candidates)
Terry


edit
The Tail Gunner is rolling in his grave with laughter. 60 some years later and the Democrats have taken up the cause that he and Roy Cohen held so dear.

[AbruptSLR]

Even a few months ago the GOP was hoping to gain seats in the Senate, now GOP insiders are concerned about not only losing their majority in the House but also possibly in the Senate:

Title: "Six months out, what GOP insiders expect in November"

https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/29/politics/ip-6-months-until-midterms/index.html

Extract: "There is no dispute that both the GOP's House and Senate majorities are at risk. But six months out, CNN's John King reports there are widely different assessments within the GOP ranks about how difficult the environment will be, and about how certain it is that the losses will run deep.

The biggest factor in midterm years is the President's approval rating. President Trump's in the the 40% range, and most Republicans believe it is unrealistic to expect it to get much better. The "generic ballot" test has been more of a moving target. Voters consistently prefer Democrats to control Congress, but the margin has gyrated over the past few months.

King says some Republicans tell him they are already resigned to losing the House.
…
The Senate math is also the subject of considerable debate.

Republicans entered the year hoping to defy history and gain seats, based on a 2018 map that has far more Democratic incumbents on defense. Indiana's May primary is one of the key dates ahead in Senate calculations. Republicans also feel more upbeat about North Dakota in recent days, in part because of encouraging GOP polling numbers, and there is a better mood about Florida now that Gov. Rick Scott is officially in the race and is beginning to get more active on the trail.

On the flip side, some Republicans are increasingly worried about GOP-held seats in Tennessee and Arizona where Democrats have strong candidates.

Six months seems like a long time, but the May primaries will kick things into a higher gear."

[Daniel B.]

Is waiting for the other side to implode a strategy?


If they do, we can all hold hands round a campfire and sing Kumbaya. In the meantime doesn't it make sense to nominate some candidates that can win, even if they face strong opposition?


I've followed professional boxing all of my life. Every now and then the better boxer will overlook an opponent, not train as hard as he should, and he'll end up face down on the mat.


The subject here is the GOP losing ground for the coming midterm. I don't believe that to be what the polls are showing us, and I particularly object to it being heralded as a strategy going forward.


We can win if we're willing to put in the work. (and a slew of progressive candidates)
Terry


edit
The Tail Gunner is rolling in his grave with laughter. 60 some years later and the Democrats have taken up the cause that he and Roy Cohen held so dear.

I wholeheartedly agree.  People are much more likely to gather around a candidate that they favor.  A campaign strategy that focuses solely on voting against someone, tends to create apathy, not enthusiasm.  Just compare Obama and Clinton.

[AbruptSLR]

The GOP has become overly reliant on mechanism such as voter suppression.  While the Democrats will have a fight on their hands in the 2018 midterm elections, both favorable judicial decisions regarding gerrymandering and a good ground game to get out the vote (including driving voters to the polls), could see the Democrats make-up lost ground against the GOP:

Title: "How the GOP Rigs Elections"

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/gop-rigs-elections-gerrymandering-voter-id-laws-dark-money-w515664

Extract: "To say that Republicans are facing a toxic political environment heading into the 2018 midterm elections would be a massive understatement. Donald Trump is the most unpopular president at this stage of his term in modern American history. Just three in 10 Americans have a favorable view of the Republican Party, and Democratic voters' enthusiasm to vote in 2018 tops Republican voters' by 17 points. But because of sophisticated gerrymandering, Republicans who should be vulnerable, like Wanggaard, have been seen as untouchable.
…
Since Trump's election, Republicans have accelerated their efforts to make it harder to vote. The president's whopping lie that "millions voted illegally" in 2016 led to the creation of a Presidential Advisory Commission on Election Integrity, which was run by figures like Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach, who have repeatedly spread false claims about voter fraud in order to pass policies that restrict access to the ballot. The commission was abruptly disbanded by Trump in early January after facing 15 federal and state lawsuits for violating a wide range of privacy and transparency laws, stemming from the commission's unprecedented request for sensitive voter data from all 50 states.
…
Despite these Republican advantages, the end of 2017 brought good news for Democrats. In November, the party won the Virginia governor's race and picked up a surprising 15 seats in the state's House of Delegates. A month later, Democrat Doug Jones won a shocking upset over Roy Moore in a special election for the U.S. Senate in Alabama. Democrats are now favored to win control of the House in 2018 and have a shot at taking back the Senate. The tide is even turning in Wisconsin, where in early January 2018 Democrats won a special election by 10 points for a state Senate district that Trump won by 17 points and Republicans had held since 2000. It was the Democrats' 34th pickup of the 2018 cycle.

The lower courts have already signaled a willingness to push back on unfair redistricting. On January 9th, a federal court struck down North Carolina's U.S. House map, which gives Republicans a 10-to-three advantage over Democrats, the first time a federal court has invalidated congressional lines for partisan gerrymandering. But on January 18th, the Supreme Court blocked the redrawing of North Carolina's maps, pending appeal. GOP-drawn districts have also been struck down in Alabama, Florida, Virginia and Texas. Many of these rulings are similarly being appealed by Republicans, making it unlikely such districts will be redrawn before the 2018 elections. After this story went to press, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court struck down the state's Congressional maps – which give Republicans a 13 to 5 advantage – and ordered they be redrawn in 2018, boosting Democratic prospects in the state."

[AbruptSLR]

Tax evasion brought down Al Capone, so the GOP should be nervous that Mueller has some of the best bean counters around going over team Trump's potentially illegal financial dealings.  Bean counters do not have short attention spans (like most of the posters in this forum), thus the Mueller investigate could hang an albatross around the GOP's neck between now and November 6, 2018:

Title: "Want to Bring Down Donald Trump? Follow the People Who Follow the Money"

https://www.alternet.org/want-bring-down-donald-trump-follow-people-who-follow-money

Extract: "If Donald Trump is taken down, it may well be the bean counters who ultimately do it."

[AbruptSLR]

Voters who want to protect NASA from the likes of Jim Bridenstine (who is cut from the same cloth as James Inhofe & Scott Pruitt), will likely vote against the GOP come November 2018:

Title: "The Boys from Tulsa/Weekend Reader for Sunday, April 29"

http://www.dailyclimate.org/the-boys-from-tulsa-weekend-reader-for-sunday-april-29-2564190102.html

Extract: "A trio of regulation-hatin', climate-denyin' desperadoes from Tulsa are taking Washington by storm."

[AbruptSLR]

Voters who care about the Arctic, are increasingly less likely to vote for the GOP in November 2018:

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/04/trump-administration-takes-first-steps-toward-drilling-alaska-s-arctic-refuge


"By putting the fate of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in the hands of former oil industry lobbyist David Bernhardt, Secretary Zinke has made clear that this rushed environmental review process will be nothing more than a kangaroo court," Matt Lee-Ashley, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress in Washington, D.C., said in a statement.

Environmental groups told the Trump administration to brace for a legal battle.
"The Trump administration's reckless dash to expedite drilling and destroy the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge will only hasten a trip to the courthouse," Jamie Rappaport Clark, president and CEO Defenders of Wildlife in Washington, D.C., said in a statement. "We will not stand by and watch them desecrate this fragile landscape."

Lawmakers responded largely along party lines.

"We welcome this scoping announcement and the Department’s continued work to implement our legislation opening the Coastal Plain to responsible energy development," Alaska's congressional delegation, all Republicans, said in a joint statement. "We appreciate the Department following the law, planning multiple public meetings with Alaskans, and moving forward on this important program to help ensure the energy and economic security of our nation."

House Natural Resources ranking member Raúl Grijalva (D-AZ) and eight Democratic colleagues today sent a letter to Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke objecting to the "needless haste" toward leasing in ANWR.

"This administration's naked greed and corporate favoritism have become an ongoing self-parody," Grijalva said in a statement. "This is the kind of rushed policy that gets made during a backroom deal, not a careful assessment of public opinion and scientific data. President Trump and Secretary Zinke count drilling in the Arctic Refuge as a win because it upsets Americans they don't like, not because it will have any public benefit."

[AbruptSLR]

Voters who care about science (particularly scientists) are increasingly likely to hold the GOP accountable in November 2018:

Title: "The Largest Number Of Scientists In Modern U.S. History Are Running For Office In 2018"

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/science-candidates_us_5a74fffde4b06ee97af2ae60?guccounter=1

Extract: "At least 200 candidates with previous careers in science, technology, engineering and math announced bids for some of the nation’s roughly 7,000 state legislature seats as of Jan. 31, according to data that 314 Action, a political action committee, shared exclusively with HuffPost.

The group, which launched in 2014 to help scientists run for office, said it is talking with 500 more people and is pressing about half of them to run. An additional 200 such candidates are running for school boards.

“The sheer number is really astonishing,” 314 Action founder Shaughnessy Naughton told HuffPost. “We’ve never seen anything like this.”

This is the largest number of scientists to run for public office in modern history. If any of them win, it could dramatically multiply the number of scientists in Congress beyond Rep. Bill Foster (D-Ill.), the lone Ph.D. scientist, a physicist.

The surge in congressional bids comes as scientists are experiencing a fierce political backlash. A year into his first term, President Donald Trump has yet to name a science adviser and has proposed dramatically slashing research budgets across federal agencies. He openly mocks the widely accepted science behind global warming and has nominated ardent climate deniers to key environmental positions. Under Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Scott Pruitt, the White House has reversed regulations to reduce greenhouse gases and put new rules in place to give control of the agency’s science advisory boards to researchers paid by industries."

[TerryM]

The GOP has become overly reliant on mechanism such as voter suppression.  While the Democrats will have a fight on their hands in the 2018 midterm elections, both favorable judicial decisions regarding gerrymandering and a good ground game to get out the vote (including driving voters to the polls), could see the Democrats make-up lost ground against the GOP:

Title: "How the GOP Rigs Elections"

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/gop-rigs-elections-gerrymandering-voter-id-laws-dark-money-w515664

Extract: "To say that Republicans are facing a toxic political environment heading into the 2018 midterm elections would be a massive understatement. Donald Trump is the most unpopular president at this stage of his term in modern American history. Just three in 10 Americans have a favorable view of the Republican Party, and Democratic voters' enthusiasm to vote in 2018 tops Republican voters' by 17 points. But because of sophisticated gerrymandering, Republicans who should be vulnerable, like Wanggaard, have been seen as untouchable.

I'm not sure when the Rolling Stone article was written, but the bolded is no longer true. According to FiveThirtyEight Jimmy Carter polled lower and Truman, Ford and Reagan were all within a very narrow range of polling error.
38.6% of Americans now prefer the Republicans over the Democrats - not a winning majority, but much better than the 3 out of 10 that are mentioned.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/

Trump and the Republicans have had a bad week, but they're still well up for the year.
Terry

[AbruptSLR]

The Democrats are working hard to help the GOP implode in several state legislatures in November:

Title: "Democrats strive to tighten their hold in several states"

https://www.sacbee.com/news/business/article210102904.html

Extract: "Democrats buoyed by anti-Trump political activism want to wrest control of legislatures from Republicans, but they're also striving to tighten their hold in states where they have an edge — or where control is split — in order to pass legislation ranging from gun control to health care and from taxation to campaign finance reform."

[AbruptSLR]

The GOP is so fractured that even George W. Bush's former ethics czar is encouraging people to vote for the Democrats:

Title: "Bush Ethics Czar Launches Democratic Senate Bid. Can His Resistance Cred Make Up for His GOP Past?"

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/04/richard-painter-launches-primary-challenge-to-minnesota-sen-tina-smith.html

Extract: "Richard Painter, who recently went from GOP ethics czar to nerd-hero of the #resistance, on Monday announced another surprising career turn: Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate.

Painter will challenge interim Sen. Tina Smith in Minnesota’s Democratic primary this summer, a decision that sets up a high-profile showdown this summer that could scramble the usual battle lines on the left.

Painter explained his party-switching this way: “We need to stand firm against what President Trump is threatening to do to our country, and the only alternative this fall is going to be to vote for Democrats,” he said in announcing his candidacy for the seat vacated by Al Franken last year. “The Republican Party has demonstrated that it is not willing to participate in our democratic system. The Republicans insist if you’re going to run for national office you must be loyal to President Donald Trump.”"

[TerryM]

The GOP is so fractured that even George W. Bush's former ethics czar is encouraging people to vote for the Democrats:

Title: "Bush Ethics Czar Launches Democratic Senate Bid. Can His Resistance Cred Make Up for His GOP Past?"

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/04/richard-painter-launches-primary-challenge-to-minnesota-sen-tina-smith.html

Extract: "Richard Painter, who recently went from GOP ethics czar to nerd-hero of the #resistance, on Monday announced another surprising career turn: Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate.

Painter will challenge interim Sen. Tina Smith in Minnesota’s Democratic primary this summer, a decision that sets up a high-profile showdown this summer that could scramble the usual battle lines on the left.

Painter explained his party-switching this way: “We need to stand firm against what President Trump is threatening to do to our country, and the only alternative this fall is going to be to vote for Democrats,” he said in announcing his candidacy for the seat vacated by Al Franken last year. “The Republican Party has demonstrated that it is not willing to participate in our democratic system. The Republicans insist if you’re going to run for national office you must be loyal to President Donald Trump.”"

no No NO NO NO

[AbruptSLR]

Missouri could be the straw that breaks the GOP grip on the Senate:

Title: "Will Missouri’s scandal-plagued Gov. Eric Greitens rescue Claire McCaskill one more time?"

https://www.salon.com/2018/04/30/will-missouris-scandal-plagued-gov-eric-greitens-rescue-claire-mccaskill-one-more-time/

Extract: "Virtually all Missouri Republicans have turned on Eric Greitens amid an ugly sex scandal, but he vows to fight on
…
Felony charges against Greitens for those allegations and for allegations of computer tampering could help torch Missouri Republicans’ chances of capturing the U.S. Senate seat now held by Claire McCaskill, a Democrat. Winning back the Missouri seat is seen as crucial to continued Republican control of the Senate, since the GOP now has only a 51-49 majority, and strategists believe they may lose two or three seats currently held by Republicans."

[AbruptSLR]

This could go into the Trump folder, but as it indicates that Pence is throwing Trump under the bus w.r.t. Jackson (the Candy Man), this is an example of the GOP fracturing:

Title: "Exclusive: Pence's doctor alerted WH aides about Ronny Jackson concerns last fall"

https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/30/politics/karen-pence-doctor-privacy-ronny-jackson/index.html

Extract: "ice President Mike Pence's physician privately raised alarms within the White House last fall that President Donald Trump's doctor may have violated federal privacy protections for a key patient -- Pence's wife, Karen -- and intimidated the vice president's doctor during angry confrontations over the episode."

[AbruptSLR]

If the 9 percent of voters 'very surprised' by Trump's behavior in office vote in swing states, then we may have just identified the '9% solution' to the nations current GOP problem:

Title: "Just 9 percent 'very surprised' by Trump's behavior in office: poll"

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/just-9-percent-very-surprised-by-trumps-behavior-in-office-poll/ar-AAwATqK?ocid=spartandhp

Extract: "A Monmouth University poll, conducted April 26-30, found just 9 percent of American adults are very surprised by the way Trump has handled the presidency. Another 10 percent said they are somewhat surprised."

[Daniel B.]

In order for the Dems to regain the Senate, they must win 29 of the 35 races this November.  Eleven of those races are solidly Democratic, while five are solidly Republican.  Another six lean towards the Democrat, while two lean Republican.  That leaves 11, of which the Dems would need to win ten.  Although many of those states have incumbent Democratic Senators, nine of them voter for Trump in 2016, some by double digits.  It is still early yet, so anything is possible.

[AbruptSLR]

Some people who voted for Trump thought that he might reduce government corruption; while in reality under his GOP administration this problem has gotten worse.  Now the liberal-leaning Roosevelt Institute is proposing measures to fight corruption in the US government (which will likely impact the GOP more than the Democrats):

Title: "Corruption Is Bad"

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/government-anti-corruption-oversight_us_5ae8e4ebe4b06748dc8d4b43

Extract: "Think tanks themselves are meant to influence the political process, and think tanks have to get their funding somewhere. Some of the worst Washington corruption scandals in recent years have involved think tanks leveraging their reputations to help corporate donors.

So the latest policy proposal from the liberal-leaning Roosevelt Institute deserves special attention. Authored by incoming federal trade commissioner Rohit Chopra as he awaited Senate confirmation for his new post, the paper marks the first comprehensive attempt to rethink federal anti-corruption policy in years ― maybe since the Watergate era. Instead of focusing on campaign contributions and elections, Chopra takes a look at the way special interests exercise undue influence over the federal bureaucracy and the broader policy debate in Washington.
…
But Washington seems to be changing. In the past few weeks, multiple senators have endorsed ambitious policy ideas that seemed unthinkable just a few years or even months ago. The Roosevelt Institute paper could be the start of a new conversation about clean government.

“We need to revisit government institutions broadly to make clear that not only is Donald Trump’s corruption unacceptable, but the type of banal corruption that predated him is also unacceptable,” Hauser told HuffPost."

[Buddy]

Here's link for the "Cook Political Report."  It is put together by Charlie Cook ...... well respected by BOTH SIDES.  I have the link for the "House" ..... but there are other things as well.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings

[AbruptSLR]

Trump's rot is infecting the GOP, and soon the body GOP will reject its new spine:

Title: "Marco Rubio’s Body Rejects News Spine"

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/05/marco-rubio-tax-bill-flip-flop

Extract: "The senator suddenly loves the tax plan he trashed just two days ago."

[sidd]

Now this is interesting: republican primary challenger running on bringing the troops home:

16 district of ohio, gerrymandered as you will see if you look it up. GOP machine dont like her, but theres a buncha people with family in harms way in stupid wars round there.

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2018/05/01/hagan-troops-home-spent-enough-money/

sidd

[Buddy]

List of 11 members running for re-election that are all too willing to allow Russia to interfere in our 2016 election.... AND ... unable to call out the lies of Donald Trump.  They themselves, are obstructing justice.  Jim Jordan and Mark Meadows are the only ones NOT on the House Intelligence Committee..... BUT.... they are the lead sources now in lying for Donald Trump in the US House of Representatives, and they ARE running for re-election.

1)  Mark Meadows, North Carolina, 11th District
2)  Jim Jordon, Ohio 4th District
3)  Devin Nunes, California 22nd District
4)  Peter King, New York 2nd District
5)  Chris Stewart, Utah 2nd District
6)  Michael Conaway, Texas 11th District
7)  Eric Crawford, Arkansas 1st District
  Will Hurd, Texas 23rd District
9)  Elise Stefanik, New York 21st District
10) Michael Turner, Ohio 10th District
11)Brad Wenstrup, Ohio 2nd District

Below....are other members from the House Intelligence Committee that are NOT running for re-election ...... but signed the lying and misleading House majority report on their sham investigation.

Trey Gowdy, South Carolina 4th District
Frank LoBiondo, New Jersey 2nd District
Thomas Rooney, Florida 17th District
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Florida 17th District


https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-allied-house-conservatives-draft-articles-of-impeachment-against-rosenstein-as-last-resort/2018/04/30/d78af412-4c97-11e8-b725-92c89fe3ca4c_story.html?utm_term=.7039340d34d4

[Daniel B.]

Here's link for the "Cook Political Report."  It is put together by Charlie Cook ...... well respected by BOTH SIDES.  I have the link for the "House" ..... but there are other things as well.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings

Interesting.  He pegs the race fro the House as follows:  R - 210, D- 192, with 33 seats largely undecided.  The Dems need to win 26 of those 33 to take over.

[AbruptSLR]

List of 11 members running for re-election that are all too willing to allow Russia to interfere in our 2016 election.... AND ... unable to call out the lies of Donald Trump.  They themselves, are obstructing justice.

The GOP is shameless in their abuse of governmental power for their own political ends as this article indicates that Paul Ryan has essentially been running the House as an extension of Trump's political policies.  Remember that the GOP House impeached Bill Clinton for his dealings with Monica Lewinsky; however, they look the other way over all of the Trump-Daniels relationships.  The swing voters will wise-up fast to this double standard and will hold the GOP accountable in the 2018 midterm elections:

Title: "Paul Ryan Warns If Republicans Lose House, Cover-ups Will End"

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/05/paul-ryan-if-the-gop-loses-house-trump-cover-ups-will-end.html

Extract: "Paul Ryan appeared at a financial conference to warn that, if Democrats win control of either the House or the Senate in the November elections, “you’ll have gridlock, you’ll have subpoenas.” The gridlock part is true, but it is basically the case already. The Republican legislative agenda has come to a halt, and neither the party nor even its intellectual class has any ideas about which kinds of bills they ought to pass.

What really would change with Democratic control of a chamber is the subpoena part. But it’s worth spelling out just what it is Ryan is warning will happen — and what, by implication, he is confessing.

Ryan’s House has been run essentially as a subordinate arm of the Trump administration. Ryan and his party have quashed votes to compel release of Donald Trump’s tax returns, and they have used their investigative power not to oversee the presidency but to harass and intimidate the Department of Justice into falling into line behind the president’s whims, to the point where the acting attorney general had to bluntly accuse House Republicans of trying to “extort” him. Trump and his family have used their power to enrich themselves personally, with no hearings or oversight whatsoever from the House. His Cabinet members have likewise misspent funds and abused their authority without any accountability from the committees that are putatively tasked with the job."

[Daniel B.]

List of 11 members running for re-election that are all too willing to allow Russia to interfere in our 2016 election.... AND ... unable to call out the lies of Donald Trump.  They themselves, are obstructing justice.

The GOP is shameless in their abuse of governmental power for their own political ends as this article indicates that Paul Ryan has essentially been running the House as an extension of Trump's political policies.  Remember that the GOP House impeached Bill Clinton for his dealings with Monica Lewinsky; however, they look the other way over all of the Trump-Daniels relationships.  The swing voters will wise-up fast to this double standard and will hold the GOP accountable in the 2018 midterm elections:

Title: "Paul Ryan Warns If Republicans Lose House, Cover-ups Will End"

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/05/paul-ryan-if-the-gop-loses-house-trump-cover-ups-will-end.html

Extract: "Paul Ryan appeared at a financial conference to warn that, if Democrats win control of either the House or the Senate in the November elections, “you’ll have gridlock, you’ll have subpoenas.” The gridlock part is true, but it is basically the case already. The Republican legislative agenda has come to a halt, and neither the party nor even its intellectual class has any ideas about which kinds of bills they ought to pass.

What really would change with Democratic control of a chamber is the subpoena part. But it’s worth spelling out just what it is Ryan is warning will happen — and what, by implication, he is confessing.

Ryan’s House has been run essentially as a subordinate arm of the Trump administration. Ryan and his party have quashed votes to compel release of Donald Trump’s tax returns, and they have used their investigative power not to oversee the presidency but to harass and intimidate the Department of Justice into falling into line behind the president’s whims, to the point where the acting attorney general had to bluntly accuse House Republicans of trying to “extort” him. Trump and his family have used their power to enrich themselves personally, with no hearings or oversight whatsoever from the House. His Cabinet members have likewise misspent funds and abused their authority without any accountability from the committees that are putatively tasked with the job."

Seems like quite the stretch, especially since Ryan refused to endorse Trump after securing the nomination.  Ryan only reluctantly agreed to work with the president after his election, since he had little choice at that point.  To call the house under Ryan a "subordinate arm of the Trump administration," is a fallacy.

[AbruptSLR]

The linked article discusses yet another example of the GOP's disintegrating respect for the rule of law, and their increasing desire to replace the rule of law with Trumpian authoritarianism:

Title: "Giuliani’s FBI ‘Stormtroopers’ Smear Is the Key to Trump’s Authoritarian Mind-set"

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/05/giuliani-fbi-stormtroopers-and-trumps-authoritarianism-mueller.html

Extract: " In 1995, National Rifle Association president Wayne LaPierre signed his name to a fundraising letter referring to Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms agents as “jack-booted government thugs.” The implicit association of American federal law enforcement with fascists provoked a furor. Former president George H. W. Bush publicly resigned his NRA membership in protest; LaPierre had to apologize.

Last night, in the midst of a long, deeply incriminating interview, Rudy Giuliani called FBI agents “stormtroopers.” Here was the president’s lawyer, not an outside lobbyist, comparing federal law enforcement to Nazis directly, rather than indirectly. The Washington Post’s account of Giuliani’s interview noted the remark in a single sentence, in the 30th paragraph of its story. The New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and Politico accounts of Giuliani’s interview did not even mention the stormtrooper remark at all.

No doubt the flurry of hair-on-fire legal jeopardy unleashed by Giuliani’s remarks helped bury the newsworthiness of his stormtrooper line. Still, the casualness with which the line was uttered and received does indicate something important about the way Republican thinking about law enforcement has evolved. The party’s respect for the rule of law is disintegrating before our eyes, and in its place is forming a Trumpian conviction that the law must be an instrument of reactionary power."

[Daniel B.]

And I thought stormtroopers were only in Star Wars.

[AbruptSLR]

And I thought stormtroopers were only in Star Wars.

Perhaps Giuliani should have said "Brownshirts", and it seems to me that Trump's security forces during his campaign rallies followed "Brownshirt" tactics rather than the FBI:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sturmabteilung

Extract: "The Sturmabteilung (SA; German pronunciation: [ˈʃtʊɐ̯mʔapˌtaɪlʊŋ] (About this sound listen)), literally Storm Detachment, functioned as the original paramilitary wing of the Nazi Party (NSDAP). It played a significant role in Adolf Hitler's rise to power in the 1920s and 1930s. Its primary purposes were providing protection for Nazi rallies and assemblies, disrupting the meetings of opposing parties, fighting against the paramilitary units of the opposing parties, especially the Red Front Fighters League (Rotfrontkämpferbund) of the Communist Party of Germany (KPD), and intimidating Slavs, Romanis, trade unionists, and, especially, Jews – for instance, during the Nazi boycott of Jewish businesses.

The SA were also called the "Brownshirts" (Braunhemden) from the color of their uniform shirts, similar to Benito Mussolini's blackshirts. The SA developed pseudo-military titles for its members, with ranks that were later adopted by several other Nazi Party groups, chief amongst them the Schutzstaffel (SS), which originated as a branch of the SA before being separated. Brown shirts were chosen as the SA uniform because a large number of them were cheaply available after World War I, having originally been ordered during the war for colonial troops posted to Germany's former African colonies."

[Buddy]

Paul Ryan warns that if Dems win, they’ll hold Trump accountable

Paul Ryan doesn't quite "get it."  EVERYONE is supposed to hold people accountable when they do illegal things.  That INCLUDES TRUMP.

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/paul-ryan-warns-if-dems-win-theyll-hold-trump-accountable?cid=sm_fb_maddow

[AbruptSLR]

The swing voters needs to hold the GOP accountable for the lies that they put forward:

Title: "A Couple Republican Elites Just Admitted Their Agenda Is Built on Lies"

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/05/tom-price-admits-his-case-against-obamacare-was-full-of-lies.html

Extract: "Similarly, most Americans did not look at their nation’s economy last year — with its record-high corporate profits, stagnant wage growth, and steadily growing population of retirees dependent on Social Security benefits — and think: “Congress’s top priority should be to increase the net worth of corporate shareholders and business owners by awarding them hundreds of billions in deficit-financed tax cuts.”

For these reasons, when Republicans tried to sell the public on their “make health care less affordable for the many, so as to make equities more valuable for the few” agenda last year, they did not describe it in those terms. Rather, most opted to grossly misrepresent what their policy goals actually were.
…
Former Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price used to say that Obamacare’s individual mandate increased health-care costs. Now he’s saying Congress’ decision to repeal it could actually increase costs.

… “There are many, and I am one of them, who believes that that actually will harm the pool in the exchange market because you’ll likely have individuals who are younger and healthier not participating in that market,” he said. “And, consequently, that drives up the cost for other folks in that market.”"

[AbruptSLR]

Certainly due to reasons including: gerrymandering, voter suppression, billionaire political donations and Trump's disregard for the rule of law, the Democrats face an uphill battle in the midterm elections.  Nevertheless, the linked article provides an example of how the Democrats can pick-off the vulnerable GOP House incumbents:

Title: "VA-10 Preview: Democrats Fight to Take on Most Vulnerable GOP House Incumbent"

http://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/virginia-house/va-10-preview-democrats-fight-take-most-vulnerable-gop-house

Extract: "Rep. Barbara Comstock, first elected in 2014, is probably the single most vulnerable GOP incumbent in the House. In 2016, she won reelection by six points while her Northern Virginia district voted for Hillary Clinton 52 percent to 42 percent. In the 2017 governor's race, Democrat Ralph Northam annihilated Ed Gillespie 56 percent to 43 percent in the 10th CD. Down-ballot in the 10th CD, the "blue wave" swept out six incumbent GOP state delegates.

The prosperous and college-educated Northern Virginia suburbs like Loudoun County are shifting away from the Trump-era GOP with such velocity that, in short, it's difficult to see how Comstock wins reelection in 2018."

[TerryM]

The above is a textbook example of waiting for the opposition to implode so that your side will triumphantly take the hill.


I'd read the link hoping to see what strategy the Democrats would be able to pull out of the hat to slam a homerun and take the seat. Alas, another case of daring to hope, as opposed to daring to offer programs that the voters will actually be drawn to.


The Democratic hopefuls:


Wexton - a political pragmatist
Friedman - the progressive? is heir to a manufacturing dynasty and takes money from Soros
Stover - runs a firm with the disgraced Edwards, but teaches Sunday school
Helmer - sports a New Jersey accent and rales against assault rifles, that should play well in WV


All have heavy Obama connections. Helmer is retired military, and Friedman was with Veterans Affairs.


All waiting for the incumbent - who can outspend all of them - to lose her charms.


One or more of these might actually make a very good congressman, but this article certainly doesn't give one grounds for believing that it's so.


Terry

[Daniel B.]

The above is a textbook example of waiting for the opposition to implode so that your side will triumphantly take the hill.


I'd read the link hoping to see what strategy the Democrats would be able to pull out of the hat to slam a homerun and take the seat. Alas, another case of daring to hope, as opposed to daring to offer programs that the voters will actually be drawn to.


The Democratic hopefuls:


Wexton - a political pragmatist
Friedman - the progressive? is heir to a manufacturing dynasty and takes money from Soros
Stover - runs a firm with the disgraced Edwards, but teaches Sunday school
Helmer - sports a New Jersey accent and rales against assault rifles, that should play well in WV


All have heavy Obama connections. Helmer is retired military, and Friedman was with Veterans Affairs.


All waiting for the incumbent - who can outspend all of them - to lose her charms.


One or more of these might actually make a very good congressman, but this article certainly doesn't give one grounds for believing that it's so.


Terry

Yes, that is typically a recipe for failure.  No wonder the American public is so apathetic.

[TerryM]

DanielFrom a post of sidd's I learned that the above candidate Helmer holds an endorsement from the a CIA chief.


Winners, every one.
Terry

[sidd]

Knife fights in GOP trenches:

Blakenship fresh off a (slap on the wrist for killing his coal miners) rails against Senate head honcho McConnell for obsure reasons. Blakenship is in a senate race that pits him agains incumbent Democrat Joe "Call Me Coal" Manchin:

"Swamp captain Mitch McConnell has created millions of jobs for China people. While doing so Mitch has gotten rich. In fact his China family has given him tens of millions of dollars,"

"ditch Cocaine Mitch for the sake of the kids."

"They are also childishly calling me despicable and mentally ill. "

" ... he told a local radio station that the Senate GOP leader faces conflicts of interest because the father of McConnell's wife, Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao, is a "wealthy Chinaperson." "

http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/senate/386143-blankenship-targets-mcconnells-china-family-in-ad

sidd

[sidd]

More political knife fighting, and this is in Staten Island, serious Trump country.

[ Aside: I have a soft spot in my heart for the recollection of a very old woman, now dead, who used to live there some decades ago. As racist and bigoted as they come, with a stentorian voice that could stop an errrant child in its tracks three new york blocks away. But also a woman who would hector and bully young women of all races into voting on election day declaiming "I didn't march for women's voting all those years ago so you sluts could blow the whole deal."

May her own gods bless her soul. ]

Meawhile here is some street politics:

 “Lesbians for Trump”

"Republican Party leaders on Staten Island, in New York City and in Washington have thrown their weight behind Rep. Dan Donovan. They don’t like Michael Grimm, the former congressman who’s trying to win back his old seat after serving eight months in prison for tax fraud."

" ... challenging Donovan’s record of loyalty to the president."

"Grimm has taken to calling Donovan “Desperate Dan” or “Dishonest Dan.” Donovan recently released radio ads referring to Grimm as the “convict congressman.” "

“They’re morons,”

" ... 60-second radio ad that begins with a recitation of Grimm’s inmate number from his time in prison and focuses on his criminal record. "

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/02/staten-island-grimm-trump-donovan-563755

sidd

[AbruptSLR]

It will be interesting to see whether the linked poll of generic congressional ballot holds up, and whether the 8-point Democratic lead is sufficient to overcome GOP: gerrymandering, voter suppression and election tampering.

Title: "New poll: Democrats have an 8-point generic ballot lead over Republicans in the 2018 midterms"

https://www.vox.com/2018/5/3/17315970/generic-ballot-2018-midterms-democrats-republicans-monmouth-poll

Extract: "The latest 2018 elections poll is good news for Democrats — if they can keep momentum going until November.

A Monmouth University poll released Thursday shows Democrats have an 8-point lead on the GOP in the generic congressional ballot, a poll question that asks whether people would vote for a Republican or Democrat congressional candidate next year.

If the 2018 election for the House of Representatives was held today, Monmouth found that 49 percent of registered voters said they would either support or lean toward the Democratic candidate in their district, compared to 41 percent who said they would support the Republican candidate."

[Daniel B.]

More political knife fighting, and this is in Staten Island, serious Trump country.

[ Aside: I have a soft spot in my heart for the recollection of a very old woman, now dead, who used to live there some decades ago. As racist and bigoted as they come, with a stentorian voice that could stop an errrant child in its tracks three new york blocks away. But also a woman who would hector and bully young women of all races into voting on election day declaiming "I didn't march for women's voting all those years ago so you sluts could blow the whole deal."

May her own gods bless her soul. ]

Meawhile here is some street politics:

 “Lesbians for Trump”

"Republican Party leaders on Staten Island, in New York City and in Washington have thrown their weight behind Rep. Dan Donovan. They don’t like Michael Grimm, the former congressman who’s trying to win back his old seat after serving eight months in prison for tax fraud."

" ... challenging Donovan’s record of loyalty to the president."

"Grimm has taken to calling Donovan “Desperate Dan” or “Dishonest Dan.” Donovan recently released radio ads referring to Grimm as the “convict congressman.” "

“They’re morons,”

" ... 60-second radio ad that begins with a recitation of Grimm’s inmate number from his time in prison and focuses on his criminal record. "

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/02/staten-island-grimm-trump-donovan-563755

sidd

It could get interesting.  Using the data presented in the link from the past eight midterm elections, there is a high correlation between seats gained and the polling numbers.  However, it is not linear, with less seats gained as the Dems advantage increases.  The Dems need to gain 24 seats to flip the House.  In 2008, the Dems did gain 24 seats, but accomplished that with a 9.0% RCP polling advantage.  The current 6.7% RCP advantage would be close, but may fall short.

[sidd]

America's Finest News Source:

“I’m Don Blankenship, and I’m proud to say that my vision and leadership created countless new job opportunities in the fields of search and rescue, emergency surgery, funeral services, and many more,”

https://politics.theonion.com/new-don-blankenship-campaign-ad-touts-jobs-created-in-w-1825779639

sidd

[Buddy]

Here is the link to the Cook Report on the Senate side.  I know there has been a lot of "talk" about the Dem's taking back the senate.  Personally ..... I think that is a LONG SHOT ..... an "inside straight" type of outcome.  Possible ..... but VERY UNLIKELY.

As you can see from the Cook Report ..... there are 5 seats held by the Dem's that are tossups .... and only 3 tossups currently held by Republicans.  There are another 2 "lean" seats held by Democrat's.  Cook doesn't have Cruz's seat as a "lean" ...... they have it as "likely" Republican, so that seat could slide into the tossup category.

So again.... is it possible that the Dem's take control of the Senate? YES.  Is it likely?  NO.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/index.php/ratings/senate-race-ratings

[Daniel B.]

Here is the link to the Cook Report on the Senate side.  I know there has been a lot of "talk" about the Dem's taking back the senate.  Personally ..... I think that is a LONG SHOT ..... an "inside straight" type of outcome.  Possible ..... but VERY UNLIKELY.

As you can see from the Cook Report ..... there are 5 seats held by the Dem's that are tossups .... and only 3 tossups currently held by Republicans.  There are another 2 "lean" seats held by Democrat's.  Cook doesn't have Cruz's seat as a "lean" ...... they have it as "likely" Republican, so that seat could slide into the tossup category.

So again.... is it possible that the Dem's take control of the Senate? YES.  Is it likely?  NO.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/index.php/ratings/senate-race-ratings

I agree that it is very unlikely.  Not to mention that of the eight seats categorized as "tossups," Trump won seven of those states, five by double digits.  The two leaning D seats are in states that were closely contested in 2016, and split by the two parties.  The chances that the Democrats win nine of these ten seats seams rather remote.  Indeed, I would say that the odds favor the GOP gaining a seat or two in the Senate during the midterms.

[AbruptSLR]

America's Finest News Source:

“I’m Don Blankenship, and I’m proud to say that my vision and leadership created countless new job opportunities in the fields of search and rescue, emergency surgery, funeral services, and many more,”

https://politics.theonion.com/new-don-blankenship-campaign-ad-touts-jobs-created-in-w-1825779639

sidd

sidd,

Please stop posting links to articles in The Onion in this thread.

ASLR