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Author Topic: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election  (Read 37582 times)

Buddy

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #450 on: October 05, 2018, 04:33:37 AM »
By the way ..... it’s pretty obvious why Trump didn’t allow Kavanaugh AND Blasey-Ford to be questioned by the FBI:  (1) it would reinforce Blasé-Fords story and (2) it would open up Kavenaugh to lying to the FBI.

Like I have said already ..... Donnie is trying to jam this through so he can get on with his next bit of business ... shutting down Rosenstein/Mueller.

« Last Edit: October 05, 2018, 11:57:50 AM by Buddy »
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Klondike Kat

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #451 on: October 05, 2018, 01:42:33 PM »
Twelve more updates to Sabato’s Crystal Ball today.  Eleven House updates and 1 Senate update.  How many of those moved in the direction of the Republicans you ask?

ZIPPO.....NADA.....NONE

ALL of the changes moved in the direction of the Democrat’s.

And with Heidi Heitcamp voting NO ..... and I believe Murkowski will also be a no .... that leaves it up to Flake OR Collins to vote (assuming Manchin votes no).  If Flake, Collins, and Murkowski all vote NO ... the Dem’s could lose Manchin and still vote down Kavanaugh.

I think there is a relatively good chance that Flake AND Collins vote NO (Maybe 55 - 60% chance).

Further ..... if Kavanaugh IS confirmed ... that is NOT going to be the end of it for Kavanaugh OR the Republicans.

I do not share your optimism.  Both CNN and the NYTimes indicated that a procedural vote today would end the debate, with a confirmation vote coming either Saturday or next week.  Also, Sabato's updates are following the allegations against Kavanaugh, but prior to the testimony and FBI investigation.  Also, the RCP generic Congressional vote has the Democrats lead down to 7%.  IT was up to 9.5% at the height of the allegations.  The Dems still have a slight edge towards winning the House, but any chances of the Senate appear to be slipping away.

Buddy

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #452 on: October 05, 2018, 02:39:04 PM »
Quote
I do not share your optimism.  Both CNN and the NYTimes indicated that a procedural vote today would end the debate, with a confirmation vote coming either Saturday or next week.  Also, Sabato's updates are following the allegations against Kavanaugh, but prior to the testimony and FBI investigation.  Also, the RCP generic Congressional vote has the Democrats lead down to 7%.  IT was up to 9.5% at the height of the allegations.  The Dems still have a slight edge towards winning the House, but any chances of the Senate appear to be slipping away.

I'm not sure that a "55- 60% chance" of Flake and Collins voting against confirmation is that "optimistic."  It's slightly more than a coin toss.

As far as Sabato ..... those are just facts.  Right now .... it looks as though the Dem's have about an 8 - 10 headcount lead over the Republicans in the House .... with 35 or so in the "tossup" column.  So ..... odds are NOW .... that the Dem's can take back the House.  The Senate ..... I am LESS optimistic than Nate Silver about the Senate ..... and he has those odds at about 20 - 25% last time I looked.  I think it is less than that .... BUT .... there is a slim chance.  I think North Dakota is likely lost .... so the Dem's are really drawing to an inside straight as they say in Vegas.

I think if Kavanaugh IS confirmed ..... then the Dem's will do better in November.  If Kavanaugh is NOT confirmed, then the Republicans may not do as badly as they are projected RIGHT NOW.  Could they KEEP the House?  Sure.  That is certainly possible ..... and I hope the Dem's have that mindset ..... never be TOO overconfident.

NOTHING is a "done deal" on either side of the coin.  That is why they ALWAYS PLAY THE GAME .... no matter what the odds say.

Today's "procedural vote" at 10:30 is basically "thee" vote.  If he doesn't get the votes today .... he's toast.  And if he DOES get the votes today ..... then tomorrow (and Sunday for the Montana Senator coming back from his daughters wedding) is just a formality (unless something blows up over the weekend before the vote is finalized).

There is a groundswell against Kavanaugh in the public.  That list of 650 law professors from yesterdays New York Times ..... is now over 2,400.  And a retired Supreme Court Justice has changed his mind and spoken out AGAINST confirmation of Kavanaugh.

So we'll know this morning one way or the other ....



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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #453 on: October 05, 2018, 03:41:13 PM »
Per the linked Axios article the GOP currently don't have the 50 votes they need to confirm Kavanaugh.  Therefore, if the procedural test (cloture, where Senators are literally voting on whether to hold an official/final vote) vote scheduled for 10:30am ET goes wrong for them, the GOP will likely bring extreme pressure on any negative vote from Jeff, Susan, Lisa and/or Joe, prior to a possible final vote on Saturday:

Title: "GOP nervous ahead of Kavanaugh vote: “We don’t have 50 right now”"

https://www.axios.com/gop-nervous-ahead-of-brett-kavanaugh-vote-c8162287-2dc3-4b83-b59c-4f5cbf6fd2d2.html

Extract: "Sources involved with Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation are nervous going into today's 10:30 a.m. test vote.

Four senators are undecideds: Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.), Susan Collins (R-Maine), Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.).

A senior source involved in the process told me fairly late last night:
•   "We’re going into this vote and we don’t have 50 right now.""
« Last Edit: October 05, 2018, 03:46:48 PM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #454 on: October 05, 2018, 03:59:27 PM »
As Kavanaugh promised in his WSJ piece to be an impartial justice, maybe he should think about what will happen when the Democrats eventually get control of the Senate Judiciary Committee and investigate him for multiple counts of perjury during his confirmation hearings:

Title: "Perjury: Laws and Penalties - Learn what perjury is, common examples, defenses, and punishments."

https://www.criminaldefenselawyer.com/crime-penalties/federal/perjury.htm

Extract: "A person convicted of perjury under federal law may face up to five years in prison and fines."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Klondike Kat

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #455 on: October 05, 2018, 05:07:04 PM »
The Senate just voted 51-49 to advance his nomination.  Murkowski voted no, while Flake, Collins, and Manchin voted yes.  This does not guarantee confirmation, but is a step closer.

Buddy

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #456 on: October 05, 2018, 05:14:26 PM »
So now ..... the Dems have 30 hours to beat Joe Manchin to a pulp, and convince both Manchin and Collins to vote no.  Looks like Flake wants to run for President more than he wants to vote against Kavanaugh.  Too bad ...

We’ll see if any arm twisting does any good.  With Murkowski voting no, pressure is on Collins.  And if Collins votes no tomorrow .... that puts Manchin in a real wedgie.  If he puts the confirmation over the finish line, he may as well change parties (which wouldn’t surprise me by the way).
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Klondike Kat

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #457 on: October 05, 2018, 05:34:40 PM »
So now ..... the Dems have 30 hours to beat Joe Manchin to a pulp, and convince both Manchin and Collins to vote no.  Looks like Flake wants to run for President more than he wants to vote against Kavanaugh.  Too bad ...

We’ll see if any arm twisting does any good.  With Murkowski voting no, pressure is on Collins.  And if Collins votes no tomorrow .... that puts Manchin in a real wedgie.  If he puts the confirmation over the finish line, he may as well change parties (which wouldn’t surprise me by the way).

Remember Manchin is running for re-election in an extremely red state.

Buddy

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #458 on: October 05, 2018, 05:44:20 PM »
Quote
Remember Manchin is running for re-election in an extremely red state.

..... and Kavanaugh could be in the Supreme Court for the next 30+ years.  I say COULD, because he could also be impeached along with Trump and Pence (likely AFTER they are impeached AND removed from office).

If you thought 2018 was fun ..... wait for 2019.  :)

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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #459 on: October 05, 2018, 05:57:34 PM »
Kavanaugh passed the cloture vote.  Now there is one to two days to swing two more votes against Kavanaugh's confirmation:

Title: "Supreme Court nominee Kavanaugh clears crucial Senate hurdle"

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/supreme-court-nominee-kavanaugh-clears-crucial-senate-hurdle/ar-BBNXLDT?ocid=spartandhp

Extract: "A deeply divided Senate pushed Brett Kavanaugh's Supreme Court nomination past a key procedural hurdle Friday, setting up a likely final showdown this weekend in a battle that's seen claims of long-ago sexual assault by the nominee threaten President Donald Trump's effort to tip the court rightward for decades."
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TerryM

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #460 on: October 05, 2018, 06:52:55 PM »
With a 2 vote edge - (ties go to the GOP) - it seems likely that Kavanaugh will become the next Supreme Court Justice. At 53 years, he'll possibly be making decisions at the highest level for the next 3 decades.


Any second thoughts about attacking the man instead of his record?


Bringing out Ford has galvanized the Republican base, and swung more of the independents to the Republican camp.
When Ford's charges were aired, the Democrats held a 9.2 point lead over Republicans, now it's a 7.7 point lead.
When voters are reminded of sexual misconduct by politicians, Bill is the name that comes to mind, not Brett.
The midterms are still winnable, but we may need to attack Republican policy.


Trump's approvals are up 3 points since Ford's accusations co-opted the news cycles. Fortunately he's not running this November, as his numbers are better than Reagan's or Truman's were at this point - and they both won second terms.
Terry


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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #461 on: October 05, 2018, 11:05:01 PM »

Any second thoughts about attacking the man instead of his record?


Bringing out Ford has galvanized the Republican base, and swung more of the independents to the Republican camp.

Yup. Big mistake. Now we'll pay the price. Again.

Buddy

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #462 on: October 06, 2018, 04:47:36 AM »
Cook Political Report has 4 changes to Governors races .... all of them moving to the Democrat’s side.  A couple interest ones.

Illinois:  Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat
Minnesota:  Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat
Oklahoma:  Likely Republican to Lean Republican
South Dakota:  Likely Republican to tossup

The two “interesting” moves are Iowa and Oklahoma.  Oklahoma, because it is soooooo “ruby red”.
For Iowa ..... think tariffs.  Tariffs on soy beans .... from China .... in retaliation for Donnie’s tariffs on China.

As far as the House and Senate go, the next few weeks will have a BEVY Of polls to wade through.  The 35 or so “tossup” seats in the House should be whittled down some, and a clearer picture develop as to where the House will end up.  In the Senate ..... there may still be 8 or so tossup states come November 6. 
« Last Edit: October 06, 2018, 09:19:57 PM by Buddy »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #463 on: October 06, 2018, 04:52:24 AM »

Any second thoughts about attacking the man instead of his record?


Bringing out Ford has galvanized the Republican base, and swung more of the independents to the Republican camp.

Yup. Big mistake. Now we'll pay the price. Again.

However, at some point (possibly in the midterms) the Democrats will gain control of the Senate and thus the Senate Judiciary Committee, and then they can refer Kavanaugh for criminal investigation before a grand jury for multiple perjuries under oath during his confirmation hearing.  Then Kavanaugh will pay the price for his actions (as a 53-year man, not a 17-year old boy).
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #464 on: October 06, 2018, 04:59:18 AM »
As it is likely that the Democrats will take control of the House this coming midterm, the House Judiciary Committee will investigate Kavanaugh's actions:

Title: "Key lawmaker promises investigation into Kavanaugh if Dems retake House"

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/410168-dem-lawmaker-promises-investigation-into-kavanaugh-if-democrats-retake-house

Extract: "The top Democrat on the House Judiciary Committee says Democrats plan to open an investigation into Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh if they take back control of the House this fall.

“It is not something we are eager to do,” Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.), who is in line to become chairman of the committee if Democrats retake the House, said in an interview with The New York Times on Friday.

“But the Senate having failed to do its proper constitutionally mandated job of advise and consent, we are going to have to do something to provide a check and balance, to protect the rule of law and to protect the legitimacy of one of our most important institutions,” he added.

Nadler argued that there was evidence that Senate Republicans and the FBI had overseen a "whitewash" investigation into sexual misconduct allegations against Kavanaugh."
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TerryM

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #465 on: October 06, 2018, 10:45:25 AM »
Minorities may be particularly receptive to the message that people are falsely accused even when entirely innocent.
The once independent Deplorable Dregs are also more liable to have been falsely accused of something, than those of higher status.


Going after Kavanaugh by accusing him high school misconduct was a mistake. To date it's cost us his ascendancy to the court, and an unknown number of votes. Pushing the narrative further will cost us more, how much more will depend on how much longer and harder we push.


Terry

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #466 on: October 06, 2018, 02:12:39 PM »
Minorities may be particularly receptive to the message that people are falsely accused even when entirely innocent.
The once independent Deplorable Dregs are also more liable to have been falsely accused of something, than those of higher status.


Going after Kavanaugh by accusing him high school misconduct was a mistake. To date it's cost us his ascendancy to the court, and an unknown number of votes. Pushing the narrative further will cost us more, how much more will depend on how much longer and harder we push.


Terry

I agree that it has had its cost.  At this point, it may be better to lick the wounds and move on.

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #467 on: October 06, 2018, 04:50:15 PM »
Minorities may be particularly receptive to the message that people are falsely accused even when entirely innocent.
The once independent Deplorable Dregs are also more liable to have been falsely accused of something, than those of higher status.


Going after Kavanaugh by accusing him high school misconduct was a mistake. To date it's cost us his ascendancy to the court, and an unknown number of votes. Pushing the narrative further will cost us more, how much more will depend on how much longer and harder we push.


Terry

All of your points are much more appropriate to apply to the GOP rather than to the Democrats, especially w.r.t. Trump's mocking of Ford.  Plus you seem to forget that Ford is (are the other accusers are) not a Democrat plant(s) and that Kavanaugh was assumed to be a shoe-in before this sexual harassment/assault matter arose:

Title: "Christine Blasey Ford Found Trump's Mocking ‘Very Hurtful,’ Lawyers Say"

https://www.thedailybeast.com/christine-blasey-ford-found-trumps-mocking-very-hurtful-lawyers-say

Extract: "As Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the Supreme Court appeared to become all but certain Friday night, lawyers for Dr. Christine Blasey Ford told CNN’s Dana Bash that their client did not regret bringing her sexual assault allegation forward against the nominee. “I don't think she has any regrets. I think she feels like she did the right thing,” Lisa Banks said. “And this was what she wanted to do, which was provide this information to the committee so they could make the best decision possible. And I think she still feels that was the right thing to do, so I don't think she has any regrets.” Asked by Bash what Ford, who recalled the “uproarious laughter” at her expense during last week’s hearing, thought when she saw that President Trump had openly mocked her at a campaign rally this week, Banks added, “It was very hurtful, as it would be to any woman. Any survivor who had the courage to come forward only to be mocked and belittled by anyone really, but certainly by the president of the United States, it was very upsetting. It was very hurtful.”"

Edit: Don't let all of your doom and gloom thoughts about Democrat 'mistakes' fool you into to forgetting that it is always darkest before the dawn, and the Democratic base is also being energized by this matter; which may contribute to a blue wave in November.
« Last Edit: October 06, 2018, 05:08:38 PM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #468 on: October 06, 2018, 05:00:29 PM »
Soon Don McGahn won't be the WH counsel, and the soon to be Democrat controlled House Judiciary Committee will subpoena him to get the full story of how the WH rigged the Kavanaugh investigation:

Title: "F.B.I. Review of Kavanaugh Was Limited From the Start"

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/05/us/politics/trump-kavanaugh-fbi.html

Extract: "An exasperated President Trump picked up the phone to call the White House counsel, Donald F. McGahn II, last Sunday. Tell the F.B.I. they can investigate anything, he told Mr. McGahn, because we need the critics to stop.

Not so fast, Mr. McGahn said.

Mr. McGahn, according to people familiar with the conversation, told the president that even though the White House was facing a storm of condemnation for limiting the F.B.I. background check into sexual misconduct allegations against Judge Brett M. Kavanaugh, a wide-ranging inquiry like some Democrats were demanding — and Mr. Trump was suggesting — would be potentially disastrous for Judge Kavanaugh’s chances of confirmation to the Supreme Court."
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TerryM

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #469 on: October 06, 2018, 06:32:10 PM »
ASLR


When 358's numbers return to where they were when Ford hit the news cycle, I'll consider your point as possibly having some merit.


As we speak Republican numbers are better than they've been since Trump was elected, and the bump or swell began the day after this hit the news stands.


The Republicans never understood why Clinton didn't whither under their blistering attacks against his morality - but he ended his presidency with the highest approval numbers of any president.


Are we determined to follow their lead?
Terry

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #470 on: October 06, 2018, 09:16:46 PM »
ASLR


When 358's numbers return to where they were when Ford hit the news cycle, I'll consider your point as possibly having some merit.


As we speak Republican numbers are better than they've been since Trump was elected, and the bump or swell began the day after this hit the news stands.


The Republicans never understood why Clinton didn't whither under their blistering attacks against his morality - but he ended his presidency with the highest approval numbers of any president.


Are we determined to follow their lead?
Terry
First, you seem to show very little concern for the Democrats' moral responsibility to defend women like Dr Ford etc. from misogynistic GOP behavior, including throwing sexual assault victims under the bus (see the damage done to Ford, not only by Trump but by his followers):

Title: "What Christine Blasey Ford’s witness has to say after being left out of the FBI probe"

https://qz.com/1415990/read-letter-of-blasey-fords-witness-after-fbis-kavanaugh-probe/

Extract: "As Senator Flake anticipated in a speech before the hearing last week, coming forward has forced Christine, her husband, and their two sons to endure treatment that no human being should have to suffer. Within hours after the first news story was published, throngs of reporters descended on their home, driving the family (perhaps permanently) out of the neighborhood. The family has been subjected to a near constant barrage of harassing entails, phone calls and social media attacks (“die, you fucking cunt”), many of them obviously coordinated and many threatening death or bodily harm. Because of the attacks, Christine hasn’t spent more than three consecutive nights in the same place. They have had to hire a security firm 24/7, and they have to be transported from place to place in secret. Christine hasn’t slept more than three hours at a time since September 16th. She has trouble eating. She has had to relinquish her teaching responsibilities for the semester. And the list goes on. Perhaps forever."

Second, regarding following the GOP lead, I point-out that there is a very real difference between individual and group/political behavior.  For example, I have deep respect for the Buddha; however, I am not upset that he did not fight against the extant dictatorial kings (some of which included his followers), nor shame soldier for killing (many of whom where his followers); instead he challenged them individually to try to do better; while he accepted them in the moment for what they were (dictators, killers, prostitutes, etc); and much the same can be said about Jesus.  So just because Democrats are putting up a fight for women's rights against the GOP who have rigged the voting laws, rigged governance in the USA and, rigged the FBI investigation of Kavanaugh; doesn't mean that collectively they are not trying to make the USA a better place; even if their group behavior may not be ideal for reaching nirvana/nibbana on an individual level.
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TerryM

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #471 on: October 06, 2018, 10:03:03 PM »
It's official, 50 - 48, might be a while before the Supreme's come down on our side of anything.


Trump wins, Republicans win, and the Democrats double down going into the mid terms.


Obama was more popular than Trump is when he lost 63 Democratic Congressmen in his first mid term. If the Democrats have played their cards well since Trumps election, they should expect to do better against Trump's Republicans than the Republicans did against Obama's Democrats, and it's still possible that they will.


Personally I think our strategy has been wrong since day one.


We began by looking for Russians under every lamp post. a search lead by women who instead of wearing their hearts on their sleeves, were wearing their vagina's on their heads.


Why were we acting so irrationally?
Hillary's supporters wouldn't accept that she had lost the election. She'd made it a big deal of insisting that the loser must accept the winner was the legitimate President, then when the results came in she attempted to delegitimize Trump's win.
Vats of ink and miles of video were spent trying to convince the world that the Russians had stolen "her" elections. Some believed it - many did not.
The women came out sporting their nasty hats presumably because they were incensed over an insensitive remark Trump had made years earlier that degraded the women he had been meeting. There were and are a thousand reasons for not wanting Trump to be the President. A wise ass remark when he didn't think he was being recorded is one of them. But it's certainly not my primary reason for wanting some one else in office, in fact if I was jotting down reasons to oppose Trump that wouldn't even make it to the first page.


We'll skip forward to the Kavanaugh fiasco.
Lots of valid reason to want him rejected. What he may or may not have done in high school isn't a valid reason to reject a 53 year old for a government appointment - it just isn't.
And everyone was aware of the insincerity of our outrage. We knew it, they knew it, even Deplorables and Dregs knew it.


So we've a President we don't want. A Supreme Court Justice that we don't want, and I think we're going to have more Republican Congresscritters than we want.


To a great extent because we won't be honest about why we don't want them.
Terry


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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #472 on: October 06, 2018, 10:13:23 PM »
I'm relieved to learn of all of the real concern for Dr. Ford.
We certainty won't be going against her explicit wishes by holding impeachment hearings then.

https://6abc.com/politics/ford-wont-pursue-allegations-against-kavanaugh-further/4427136/

CNN - She does not want him impeached then?
Ford's rep. - NO

So we'll now be able to get on to other matters.
Terry

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #473 on: October 07, 2018, 02:06:10 AM »
There appears to be substance to the accusation that Chief Justice John Roberts is covering up formal complaint of Kavanaugh Misconduct filed with U.S. Circuit Judge Karen LeCraft Henderson and formally passed on to Roberts for his action:

Title: "Chief Justice John Roberts Accused of ‘Cover Up’ for Sitting on Kavanaugh Misconduct Complaints"

https://lawandcrime.com/high-profile/chief-justice-john-roberts-accused-of-cover-up-for-sitting-on-kavanaugh-misconduct-complaints/

Extract: "U.S. Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts has received over a dozen official judicial misconduct complaints leveled against U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit Court Judge and Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh.

So far he has not forwarded the complaints to a proper judicial panel. Now, some critics are calling foul and accusing Roberts of mounting a cover-up in favor of the controversial Supreme Court nominee.

Those official misconduct complaints were forwarded to Roberts by a fellow member of Kavanaugh’s court. While U.S. Circuit Judge Merrick Garland would traditionally have overseen those complaints, Garland chose to recuse himself on the matter, according to Buzzfeed News.

In his stead, U.S. Circuit Judge Karen LeCraft Henderson fielded the multiple complaints against Kavanaugh. Judge Henderson dismissed many complaints filed against the Supreme Court nominee as “frivolous,” but found substantial merit in over a dozen of the complaints she reviewed.

According to the Washington Post, Henderson began forwarding the complaints she deemed valid onto Roberts. Henderson sent them to Roberts so that Kavanaugh’s fellow judges on the D.C. Circuit would not have to assess the serious and substantive issues raised against a colleague.

Roberts’ decision to sit on the complaints against Kavanaugh stands in stark contrast to how he handled a similar complaint–centered around allegations of sexual misconduct and harassment–filed against Kavanaugh’s mentor, now-former judge Alex Kozinski.

In that case, Chief Justice Roberts forwarded the Kozinski complaint to another circuit the day after he received it. Thus, Roberts’ decision here raises some serious questions.

New York University Law School Professor and legal ethics expert Stephen Gillers noted, in comments to the Post, “If Justice Roberts sits on the complaints then they will reside in a kind of purgatory and will never be adjudicated. This is not how the rules anticipated the process would work.”"
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Klondike Kat

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #474 on: October 07, 2018, 02:24:39 AM »
It's official, 50 - 48, might be a while before the Supreme's come down on our side of anything.


Trump wins, Republicans win, and the Democrats double down going into the mid terms.


Obama was more popular than Trump is when he lost 63 Democratic Congressmen in his first mid term. If the Democrats have played their cards well since Trumps election, they should expect to do better against Trump's Republicans than the Republicans did against Obama's Democrats, and it's still possible that they will.


Personally I think our strategy has been wrong since day one.


We began by looking for Russians under every lamp post. a search lead by women who instead of wearing their hearts on their sleeves, were wearing their vagina's on their heads.


Why were we acting so irrationally?
Hillary's supporters wouldn't accept that she had lost the election. She'd made it a big deal of insisting that the loser must accept the winner was the legitimate President, then when the results came in she attempted to delegitimize Trump's win.
Vats of ink and miles of video were spent trying to convince the world that the Russians had stolen "her" elections. Some believed it - many did not.
The women came out sporting their nasty hats presumably because they were incensed over an insensitive remark Trump had made years earlier that degraded the women he had been meeting. There were and are a thousand reasons for not wanting Trump to be the President. A wise ass remark when he didn't think he was being recorded is one of them. But it's certainly not my primary reason for wanting some one else in office, in fact if I was jotting down reasons to oppose Trump that wouldn't even make it to the first page.


We'll skip forward to the Kavanaugh fiasco.
Lots of valid reason to want him rejected. What he may or may not have done in high school isn't a valid reason to reject a 53 year old for a government appointment - it just isn't.
And everyone was aware of the insincerity of our outrage. We knew it, they knew it, even Deplorables and Dregs knew it.


So we've a President we don't want. A Supreme Court Justice that we don't want, and I think we're going to have more Republican Congresscritters than we want.


To a great extent because we won't be honest about why we don't want them.
Terry

Terry,
This post was so good, I had to read it twice.  I think your analysis is spot on.  The DNP could use you in its campaign strategy team.

mostly_lurking

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #475 on: October 07, 2018, 08:51:52 AM »
I'm relieved to learn of all of the real concern for Dr. Ford.
We certainty won't be going against her explicit wishes by holding impeachment hearings then.

https://6abc.com/politics/ford-wont-pursue-allegations-against-kavanaugh-further/4427136/

CNN - She does not want him impeached then?
Ford's rep. - NO

So we'll now be able to get on to other matters.
Terry

I doubt it. Pretty sure the dems will continue this- at least till the election. They might leave Ford out of it but the other accusers seem happy to keep it up.

mostly_lurking

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #476 on: October 07, 2018, 09:50:28 AM »
Didn't know where to put this exactly..but seems relevant a few threads...


JMP

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #477 on: October 07, 2018, 12:20:18 PM »
The word Supreme doesn't mean what it did day before yesterday. 

TerryM

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #478 on: October 07, 2018, 03:05:01 PM »
Thanks KK


Somehow we lost faith in the voting public and became convinced that the only way we could win their vote was by lying to them. It's been said that no one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people, but spotting alligator tears and faux outrage are skills that the disenfranchised have honed over lifetimes of having been accused of everything from immorality to laziness - while their real crime was being poor.


Terry



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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #479 on: October 07, 2018, 03:20:10 PM »
Thanks KK


Somehow we lost faith in the voting public and became convinced that the only way we could win their vote was by lying to them. It's been said that no one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people, but spotting alligator tears and faux outrage are skills that the disenfranchised have honed over lifetimes of having been accused of everything from immorality to laziness - while their real crime was being poor.


Terry

The linked Bloomberg op/ed piece indicates that Kavanaugh's confirmation process was just one of many examples that the GOP has become the 'Post-Truth' party, where the majority of Republicans feel entitled to spin out any absurd falsehood in service to their cause of money & power.

Title: "Collins and Kavanaugh: The Post-Truth Republican Party"

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-10-06/collins-kavanaugh-and-the-post-truth-republican-party

Extract: "Senator Susan Collins alone occupied the defining hour of the drama. And her speech Friday – far more than anything said by Kavanaugh or by his accuser Christine Blasey Ford – will be the document that represents this chapter of history. Its implications are harrowing.

Collins’s speech offered a series of ostensible rationales for her vote in favor of Kavanaugh. But her rationales were reminiscent of Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell feigning outrage over the perfidious delaying tactics of Democrats – not so long after he completely blocked the nomination of Merrick Garland.

McConnell didn’t expect his protests to be taken seriously. He was showing the Republican base, which has been conditioned by Donald Trump to savor such displays, that he could spin out an absurd falsehood in service to the cause. Remember the Russian claim that assassins dispatched with deadly toxin were actually tourists just visiting Britain to see a lovely cathedral? The open contempt for truth – a comic level of gas-lighting – is the whole point. 

Collins offered some traditional partisan fare: She unwound a lengthy complaint about the involvement of liberal interest groups in a nomination process that was organized and dominated by conservative interest groups. But she anchored her speech in the vapors of Trump and McConnell’s post-truth, confirming it as the lingua franca of the entire party.

In reality, like her Republican colleagues, Collins either didn’t believe Ford was telling the truth or didn’t particularly care what the truth might be. And Collins expected her own speech to be similarly dismissed by its intended audiences. With truth a steadily devaluing currency, Collins cashed out."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Klondike Kat

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #480 on: October 07, 2018, 04:03:40 PM »
Thanks KK


Somehow we lost faith in the voting public and became convinced that the only way we could win their vote was by lying to them. It's been said that no one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people, but spotting alligator tears and faux outrage are skills that the disenfranchised have honed over lifetimes of having been accused of everything from immorality to laziness - while their real crime was being poor.


Terry

I think both parties have consistently underestimated both the intelligence of the voting public and their enthusiasm for certain issues.  The Republican Party thought that Bill Clinton’s sexual exploits would be his undoing.  People still voted for him.  The Democrats were certain Trump was doomed after the grabbing comment.  People still voted for him.  The same goes for many of the issues.  The general public cares little for a politician’s stand on abortion, capital punishment, climate change, and a host of other issues.  Focusing too much on Kavanaugh, and ignoring other issues, may be detrimental.

mostly_lurking

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #481 on: October 07, 2018, 04:25:25 PM »
....snip  Focusing too much on Kavanaugh, and ignoring other issues, may be detrimental.

It sure will be. Also I have heard from the GOP side people calling to continue and haunt Ford ,her lawyers and some of the other accusers to "get to the bottom of this". For both sides this is really a bad idea.

TerryM

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #482 on: October 07, 2018, 05:55:55 PM »
ASLR
The fact that they do it too is no excuse to follow their lead.


When we bank on revealing Kavanaugh's high school peccadilloes, rather than addressing judgments that he's made, or opinions he's written, we're telling the voters that his record is of far less import than his supposed high school antics.


This isn't only untrue, it undercuts what might have been valid arguments for voting against him. We weren't for Kavanaugh until Ford's testimony was presented, we despised him not for who he was but for what his record said about his understanding of the American Constitution.


The Senate didn't confirm him based on his writings, they confirmed him because we had let him off that hook and asked the Senators to weigh his denial against Ford's charges.
We were felled by a self inflected blow.
Terry


PS
Russia has her own thread.

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #483 on: October 07, 2018, 06:30:31 PM »
ASLR
The fact that they do it too is no excuse to follow their lead.


When we bank on revealing Kavanaugh's high school peccadilloes, rather than addressing judgments that he's made, or opinions he's written, we're telling the voters that his record is of far less import than his supposed high school antics.


This isn't only untrue, it undercuts what might have been valid arguments for voting against him. We weren't for Kavanaugh until Ford's testimony was presented, we despised him not for who he was but for what his record said about his understanding of the American Constitution.


The Senate didn't confirm him based on his writings, they confirmed him because we had let him off that hook and asked the Senators to weigh his denial against Ford's charges.
We were felled by a self inflected blow.
Terry


PS
Russia has her own thread.

Your wishful thinking does not seem to line-up with reality very well, as the GOP was going to seat Kavanaugh despite the Democrats pointing out his voting record.  However, if you can get the majority of US voters to follow your thinking, then more power to you.
« Last Edit: October 08, 2018, 04:45:51 PM by AbruptSLR »
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TerryM

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #484 on: October 07, 2018, 07:32:18 PM »
My point was particularly that rather than point out his record, the Dems & the media that had their back went ballistic in ignoring his record and fixating on an episode that may or may not have occurred 35 tears ago in somebody's parent's spare bedroom.


Ruth is 85 and in questionable health. Thomas is 70.


I doubt that we'll see a liberal court during my lifetime.


We had our chance and muffed it.
We need votes 30 DAYS from now and the numbers are running away from us. If a particular strategy isn't working - change strategies, and possibly straticians.


Why don't we want Republicans to retain power after November?
Have we told the voting public why we don't want another Republican Congress?
Can we explain how we'll make their life easier, less painful or more meaningful?


Otherwise they're liable to vote for the oaf who lies through his teeth, but tells them lies that they find comforting.
Terry

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #485 on: October 08, 2018, 01:00:38 AM »
The word Supreme doesn't mean what it did day before yesterday.
& it was already less after Thomas squeezed in.

mostly_lurking

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #486 on: October 08, 2018, 08:13:41 AM »


Ruth is 85 and in questionable health. Thomas is 70.

I doubt that we'll see a liberal court during my lifetime.


It's more extreme even. Stephen Breyer (Clinton nominee) is 80. If Trump runs and is around till 2024 he could put 2 more conservatives on the court.

TerryM

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #487 on: October 08, 2018, 10:41:07 AM »

It's more extreme even. Stephen Breyer (Clinton nominee) is 80. If Trump runs and is around till 2024 he could put 2 more conservatives on the court.


 Ramen!

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #488 on: October 08, 2018, 04:46:06 PM »
Kavanaugh's confirmation will likely widen the GOP's gender gap problem:

Title: "The GOP's gender gap problem"

https://www.axios.com/the-republican-gender-gap-problem-279b2af0-5c81-4f1a-bd4b-dfce75fc759b.html

Extract: "This was a striking graphic in a recent slide deck by Bruce Mehlman of Mehlman Castagnetti Rosen & Thomas. It shows how rapidly women have drifted away from the Republican Party since the 2016 election — opening up a lopsided preference for Democrats to control Congress in just the last few months.

Why it matters: The Brett Kavanaugh confirmation fight isn't likely to help. And with men preferring Republicans by a narrower margin — 47% to 44% in the September NBC/WSJ poll — the graphic is a vivid illustration of the troubles ahead if the GOP alienates women voters."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #489 on: October 08, 2018, 04:51:58 PM »
For the midterm elections, hopefully, not only female voters but also the youth vote will realize that the GOP does not represent their best interests:

Title: "With Kavanaugh Confirmation, GOP Commits Again To Patriarchy, Misogyny"

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/republican-party-brett-kavanaugh-patriarchy-misogyny_us_5bbaaf43e4b01470d05284ca

Extract: "The GOP is now essentially the last bastion of male dominance in a Me Too world."
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Klondike Kat

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #490 on: October 08, 2018, 05:05:46 PM »
538 has updated their Senate forecast.  They moved ND and TN into the Lean R category, which would give the GOP the necessary 50 seats.  They also have FL, MO, and NV as tossups.  On the Dem side, they moved IN from a lean to a likely D.  The odds of the GOP retaining the Senate has been increased to 78%.  The House forecast has not changed much, the Democrats are still ahead,  with a 74% chance to win (down 1%).

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #491 on: October 08, 2018, 05:53:38 PM »
Trump doesn't want to motivate Democrat voters by firing Rosenstein now:

Title: "Donald Trump puts to rest speculation he may fire Rod Rosenstein, says they get along 'very well'"

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/10/08/rod-rosenstein-donald-trump-meeting/1563389002/

Extract: "President Donald Trump said Monday he has no intention of firing Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, ending lingering uncertainty over the official's tenure in the wake of reports he had suggested invoking the 25th Amendment last year to remove Trump.

Trump and Rosenstein were expected to talk aboard Air Force One while flying to Orlando for an event with police chiefs.

“I get along very well with him,” he told reporters as he departed the White House. Asked if he planned to fire Rosenstein, Trump replied, "No, I don't.""
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #492 on: October 08, 2018, 06:46:59 PM »
While the GOP takes a victory lap over the Kavanaugh confirmation, don't forget that Trump alienated many female voters by mocking Ford and continuing investigation of his family's tax schemes may further taint the GOP before the midterm elections:

Title: "We're less than a month away until the midterms. Here are five essential questions."

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/we-re-less-month-away-until-midterms-here-are-five-n917701

Extract: "The Kavanaugh confirmation is a political victory for Trump and the GOP. And it took place in a week when the unemployment rate fell to 3.7 percent.

But the week, notably, also coincided with some very low moments for the president — his mocking of Ford, the devastating New York Times investigation about his family's tax schemes and "outright fraud.""
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #493 on: October 08, 2018, 06:57:42 PM »
Time will tell, but the Democrats still have a good chance of making significant gains in the midterms:

Title: "Red wave? Not so fast, Republicans"

https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/410270-red-wave-not-so-fast-republicans

Extract: "Many Republicans believe that the Senate vote to confirm Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court will shift the tide of a blue wave and increase Republican enthusiasm as we approach the November midterm elections. There is, however, a stronger chance that Democrats will benefit the most, politically, from the confirmation of a new justice.

Indeed, there is increasing evidence that swing districts are likely to go left next month, and the likely number of seats that the Democrats are poised to gain has steadily increased from the mid to low 20s at this time last year to the mid 30s today. In fact, the Real Clear Politics average for the generic midterm ballot has recently reached its highest level of the Democratic vote, at nearly 50 percent, at since the Republicans in Congress pushed through their unfunded tax cuts last December."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #494 on: October 08, 2018, 07:18:35 PM »
CBS says that the Democrats still have an up-hill battle in order to gain control of the Senate:

Title: "Senate races: GOP up in Texas, Tennessee; Dems up in Arizona, New Jersey — CBS News poll"

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/senate-races-gop-up-in-texas-tennessee-dems-up-in-arizona-new-jersey-cbs-news-poll/

Extract: "The battle for Senate control finds Democrats trying to mount upset challenges in a string of typically Republican states, and this round of Battleground Tracker polls shows them having at best mixed results so far."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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colchonero

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #495 on: October 08, 2018, 08:58:16 PM »
As a conservative, I feel much better where we stand today than anywhere in the last year and a half, except for the last week. Cruz seems to have gained a couple of points,  RCP average has him at +6,4 last polls have him at +8 +9, the most "critical" one - Emerson that came last time with only +1 now has him at +5. Blackburn seems to have the momentum, North Dakota is now leaning red. Can't wait to see the polls in FL, NV, MT, MO, AZ and IN, and especially in WV. Also, some house races. Although I expect to see a little surge in numbers also for the Democratic candidates, because of the Kavanaugh rage right now, but I think (hope) in the long term (30 days), that Kavanaugh effect will work in a sort of depressing way among some blue voters, cause they'll be disappointed in their leaders, because Kav got confirmed, and President Trump has already 2 SCOTUS seats. I think Democrats have to make a risky decision now, should they continue to "fight Kavanaugh" so that they can keep voter enthusiasm high until the midterms, but also keep republicans motivated, or should they stay quiet and hope the country and especially Republican voters forget a little bit about Kavanaugh, and don't show up in the big numbers, whereas anti Trump voters show to the polls in November.

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #496 on: October 08, 2018, 11:35:37 PM »
As a complete outsider of US politics I have to really laugh at US obsession that socialism equals communism. a) earliest beginnings of universal Started when King of Sweden first introduced national stats in the mid 1700 and found out he had a very high mortality rate in his country that could not support his large army. Solution . bring in national health and to improve that later on national education https://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:17729/FULLTEXT01.pdf.
One of earliest universal pension schemes was Bismarck  in Germany. https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/10/how-retirement-was-invented/381802/ neither of which you can call leftest with a straight face.
Granted each had their own reasons for doing so, but each were as about as hard right politically you can get and still have a chance at retaining power.
"All truth passes through three stages: First, it is ridiculed; Second,  it is violently opposed; and Third, it is accepted as self-evident."
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mostly_lurking

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #497 on: October 09, 2018, 08:19:38 AM »
While the GOP takes a victory lap over the Kavanaugh confirmation, don't forget that Trump alienated many female voters by mocking Ford and continuing investigation of his family's tax schemes may further taint the GOP before the midterm elections:


I think he alienated mostly women that will not vote for him or GOP anyway.His female supporters won't budge if they didn't after all the "other stuff" Trump has said or done since before the election.
The Independents? NOBODY KNOWS. I believe whatever they were leaning (left or right) will strengthen - each side sees what they want.. Trumps attack on Ford but also the way the D's handled this whole thing. It's all on the undecided and turnout.

The tax thing will have ZERO effect.

Klondike Kat

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #498 on: October 09, 2018, 01:38:36 PM »
While the GOP takes a victory lap over the Kavanaugh confirmation, don't forget that Trump alienated many female voters by mocking Ford and continuing investigation of his family's tax schemes may further taint the GOP before the midterm elections:


I think he alienated mostly women that will not vote for him or GOP anyway.His female supporters won't budge if they didn't after all the "other stuff" Trump has said or done since before the election.
The Independents? NOBODY KNOWS. I believe whatever they were leaning (left or right) will strengthen - each side sees what they want.. Trumps attack on Ford but also the way the D's handled this whole thing. It's all on the undecided and turnout.

The tax thing will have ZERO effect.

I agree.  Any female that was not alienated in 2016, will not be swayed by recent events.  The whole confirmation process will likely affect Senatorial races, but have minimal effect on the House.  Manchin most likely guaranteed his re-election by voting yes, and Heidkamp likely sealed her defeat by voting no.  One candidate who may feel the outrage over the entire affair is Bredesen in Tennessee, where the voters support confirmation.  Indiana could be interesting also.
 The challengers in Texas and New Jersey may have seen their hopes of unseating their respective incumbents just go up in smoke. 

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #499 on: October 09, 2018, 03:58:54 PM »
Quote
As a conservative, I feel much better where we stand today than anywhere in the last year and a half, except for the last week.

That's funny ..... because as a FISCAL CONSERVATIVE (and Social Moderate) I FEEL HORRIBLE.  Why?

1)  We are more than 1.5 TRILLION in debt due to the tax cut for the wealthy.  REAL fiscal conservatives don't like going in debt further in case you didn't know it.  The chart by the CBO (Congressional Budget Office) is NOT a pretty site ..... for a TRUE FISCAL CONSERVATIVE.

https://dailyreckoning.com/is-trumps-tax-cut-paying-for-itself/

2) While the earth continues to warm ..... it is NOT FISCALLY PRUDENT TO IGNORE IT. We continue to "book" expenses that will ultimately have to be paid.  They are COMING DUE NOW ..... AND THE LONGER WE IGNORE THEM, THE MORE EXPESNIVE IT GETS.  THAT IS NOT FISCALLY CONSERVITE.  THAT IS IGNORANT.  Ask the people of the Miami area that are NOW having to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to raise sidewalks and buy larger pumps.  Ask the people of the Chesapeake Bay area that are continually inundated with worse and worse flooding.  Global warming has already cost us HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS .... with a LOT MORE IN COMING YEARS.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/6-ways-to-prepare-your-finances-for-climate-change-2016-12-20

So "just" on those two VERY BIG POINTS ..... as a FISCAL CONSERVATIVE, I feel horrible.

Of course .... if the Democrat's are able to take back the House ..... then MAYBE the US can turn this nightmare around over time.

I NEVER thought I would be looking for Democrat's to be the "fiscally responsible party" ..... but that is where we now stand.






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