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Author Topic: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election  (Read 39908 times)

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #550 on: October 28, 2018, 05:30:24 PM »
The linked article helps to clarify why Latino voter will likely contribute to the blue wave in November.  It's their economy stupid:

Title: "More Latinos Have Serious Concerns About Their Place in America Under Trump"

http://www.pewhispanic.org/2018/10/25/more-latinos-have-serious-concerns-about-their-place-in-america-under-trump/

Extract: "About half say situation for U.S. Hispanics has worsened over the past year; majority worry that they or someone they know could be deported."
« Last Edit: October 28, 2018, 06:12:47 PM by AbruptSLR »
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mostly_lurking

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #551 on: October 28, 2018, 05:32:26 PM »
Some might vote blue, sure. But there is no "blue wave"
The senate will be GOP with 2-4 gain.
The House might flip with a small Dem majority (MIGHT)

That is not the definition of a wave. Sorry.

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #552 on: October 28, 2018, 06:00:26 PM »
Democrats' spending on the midterms will contribute to the coming blue wave (especially in the House):

Title: "Democrats set to outspend Republicans with 9 days until midterms"

https://www.axios.com/democrats-set-to-outspend-republicans-with-9-days-till-midterms-d5776d5d-43da-4b7a-b4a4-257c34926bd0.html

Extract: "In the final two weeks leading up to the 2018 midterm elections, Democrats are projected to spend $143 million on television advertising in House races, while Republicans will spend $86 million, according to a Democratic analysis reported in the New York Times.

Why it matters: Per the Times' Jonathan Martin and Alexi Burns, "much of the Republican spending is aimed less at securing a majority than at limiting the breadth of a Democratic takeover as the field of competition grows well beyond 40 seats.""
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #553 on: October 28, 2018, 06:13:51 PM »
The GOP is surrendering control of the House to the Democrats, and are now bracing for a blue wave of subpoenas:

Title: "White House tempers hopes of retaining House control"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/27/trump-2018-elections-midterms-congress-943449

Extract: "White House political director Bill Stepien wrote a three-page memo this week in which he outlined the political landscape confronting the GOP and bluntly warned that the party’s prospects for the House are “challenging.”

Many Republican officials concede their path to retaining their grip on the speaker’s gavel is narrow and believe they will suffer their greatest losses in suburban areas, where the president has proved to be a drag on GOP candidates.

&

Title: "The powerful weapon House Republicans handed Democrats"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/28/house-republicans-subpoena-trump-943265

Extract: "A GOP rule change handed unilateral subpoena authority to many House committee chairmen. Democrats cried foul, but now they hope to use it against Trump.

“The Republicans have set the standard and, by God, we’re going to emulate that standard,” Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.) told POLITICO."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #554 on: October 28, 2018, 07:30:05 PM »
Those who oppose anti-Semitism should join the coming blue wave in November:

Title: "Anti-Semitism has moved 'into the mainstream,' ADL director says"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/28/anti-semitism-pittsburgh-synagogue-shooting-943932

Extract: "The tragedy can be linked to concurrent political rhetoric, Greenblatt said.
“Political candidates and people in public life now literally repeat the rhetoric of white supremacists,” Greenblatt said. “They think it’s normal and permissible to talk about Jewish conspiracies, manipulating events or Jewish financers somehow controlling activities. And that is awful.”"

&

Title: "House Majority Leader posted anti-Semitic tweet after bomb sent to George Soros’ house"

https://www.salon.com/2018/10/28/house-majority-leader-posted-anti-semitic-tweet-after-bomb-sent-to-george-soros-house/

Extract: "Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., is under scrutiny after it was revealed that he posted a tweet which could be construed as anti-Semitic after a bomb was sent to the home of Jewish philanthropist George Soros and left it up until Wednesday."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Klondike Kat

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #555 on: October 28, 2018, 10:25:40 PM »
Some might vote blue, sure. But there is no "blue wave"
The senate will be GOP with 2-4 gain.
The House might flip with a small Dem majority (MIGHT)

That is not the definition of a wave. Sorry.

I agree with your assessment.  More aptly a “blue ripple.”

mostly_lurking

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #556 on: October 29, 2018, 08:15:43 AM »
Those who oppose anti-Semitism should join the coming blue wave in November:

Only problem is that the left in the US has way more anti-semite and anti Israel rhetoric.

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #557 on: October 29, 2018, 04:19:01 PM »
High voter enthusiasm is typically a good thing for Democrats:

Title: "Midterm voter enthusiasm reaching historic levels"

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/midterm-voter-enthusiasm-reaching-historic-levels-n925326

Extract: "Overall, 65 percent of those surveyed said they had high interest in this midterm election. That figure is higher than any number seen recently.

Even taking into account the steadily increasing number of early votes that come with every election, those numbers suggest an impressive level of voter engagement. Remember those figures are comparing this midterm electorate to the last presidential one.

But the numbers are even more remarkable when you compare the early vote in 2018 to the early vote in the last midterm, 2014, in states with key races.

Georgia, Tennessee and Texas have each seen an increase of more than 500,000 early votes compared to the same point in the 2014 election. In each of those states the early 2018 vote has more than doubled compared to the same point in 2014, according to TargetSmart data."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #558 on: October 29, 2018, 04:54:37 PM »
Attached is the Fivethirtyeight forecast for control of the House following the midterm elections (issued Oct 29, 2018).  The Democrats need to gain a net total of 24 additional seats to control the House.  Therefore, I would say that if the Democrats gain more than 34 net additional seats that that would qualify as a clear and definitive 'blue wave' in the midterms; while the attached plot shows that the average (50%-50% chance) net projected gain for the Democrats is +40 seats:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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mostly_lurking

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #559 on: October 30, 2018, 07:52:58 AM »
Attached is the Fivethirtyeight forecast for control of the House following the midterm elections (issued Oct 29, 2018).  The Democrats need to gain a net total of 24 additional seats to control the House.  Therefore, I would say that if the Democrats gain more than 34 net additional seats that that would qualify as a clear and definitive 'blue wave' in the midterms; while the attached plot shows that the average (50%-50% chance) net projected gain for the Democrats is +40 seats:

My prediction is House is decided by just a few votes either way- 538 is a bit too optimistic on the Dem side though. Looking at the polling (and lack of) in at least 30 toss-ups , I call it 50/50.

sedziobs

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #560 on: October 30, 2018, 02:53:34 PM »
My prediction is House is decided by just a few votes either way- 538 is a bit too optimistic on the Dem side though. Looking at the polling (and lack of) in at least 30 toss-ups , I call it 50/50.
That may be, but 538 has 11 of the top 20 least polled close races listed as Lean R.  Only 2 are Lean D.  At least by that measure, lack of polling supports Democrats.

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #561 on: October 30, 2018, 05:37:33 PM »
The linked article offers a reminder of the GOP's gender gap problem with women voters:

Title: "The GOP's gender gap problem"

https://www.axios.com/the-republican-gender-gap-problem-279b2af0-5c81-4f1a-bd4b-dfce75fc759b.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=sendto_newslettertest
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #562 on: October 30, 2018, 05:55:12 PM »
The DCCC is learning from, and correcting, its past short-comings w.r.t. to voter turnout:

Title: "Democrats launch multi-state Spanish TV ad to help boost Latino voter turnout"

https://www.axios.com/dccc-spanish-tv-ad-latino-voter-turnout-1346c4ee-514b-4d60-8d26-eba38dadb195.html

Extract: "For the first time, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) released a multi-state TV ad campaign in Spanish to help boost Latino voter turnout before the 2018 midterm elections. The ad — which is one of Democrats' strongest rebuttals to the GOP's closing argument on immigration — will run on Telemundo and Univision in eight cities with key battleground House races in Texas, Nevada, California and Utah.

Why it matters:
Democrats have been criticized this cycle (much like during other elections) for not putting significant resources towards engaging Latino voters, who they consider a crucial piece of their base. But this $500,000 ad buy is part of the DCCC's $30 million investment this year in registering and turning out millennials and voters of color."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #563 on: October 30, 2018, 06:11:33 PM »
The Democrats are expanding their fight on order to capture as many House seats as possible with one week to go:

Title: "Dems seek to expand House fight one week before midterms"

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/413743-dems-seek-to-expand-house-fight-one-week-before-midterms

One week before Election Day, Democrats and Republicans across the country see an expanding battlefield for the House majority that hints at a tumultuous and unsettled environment rocked by political violence and ethnic strife.

The number of seats in play has ballooned, with Democrats seeking to extend the playing field in the hope that a blue wave will develop even in districts across the country that voted more heavily in 2016 for President Trump.

That spending represents an against-the-odds bid to expand the number of opportunities Democrats have to gain seats, according to party strategists familiar with the moves. Most of the districts are the kind of seats that are only likely to be won by Democrats if the wave is big, but the spending points to an underlying confidence for the party.

In the final week of the race, the largest Democratic groups are spending money in 64 media markets around the country, according to sources watching the advertising market. Republican groups are spending in 58 markets.

Republicans have been taken aback by the enthusiasm on the Democratic side, one that shows up in campaign finance reports made in the final weeks of the race. Since Jan. 1, Democrats and their supporters have outspent Republican forces by a margin of more than $125 million.

In some of the most hotly contested media markets, like Los Angeles, New York City and Washington, D.C., Democratic spending is twice as high as Republican spending. In virtually every market, Democrats are outspending Republicans on television by millions of dollars.

“It obviously looks slightly better on the Democrat side,” Lara Trump conceded."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Klondike Kat

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #564 on: October 30, 2018, 07:26:32 PM »
Attached is the Fivethirtyeight forecast for control of the House following the midterm elections (issued Oct 29, 2018).  The Democrats need to gain a net total of 24 additional seats to control the House.  Therefore, I would say that if the Democrats gain more than 34 net additional seats that that would qualify as a clear and definitive 'blue wave' in the midterms; while the attached plot shows that the average (50%-50% chance) net projected gain for the Democrats is +40 seats:

My prediction is House is decided by just a few votes either way- 538 is a bit too optimistic on the Dem side though. Looking at the polling (and lack of) in at least 30 toss-ups , I call it 50/50.

538 assumes a higher Democratic turnout than Republican, and skews their polls accordingly.  Still, there are a few confusing calls.  Namely the CA-25, where the most recent poll has the incumbent Republican ahead by 4%, but they rate it a leaning Dem district and both MI-11 and Me-2, which are Republican districts, and the polls rate them a dead heat, but 538 lists them as Democratic pickups.  The most perplexing call is KA-2.  This is a heavily Republican district (Trump by 18%, Romney and McCain by double digits, etc.), and the latest Emerson poll shows the GOP candidate with a 7% advantage, but 538 lists this as a Democratic pickup due largely to a 3:1 Democratic fundraising advantage.  This has been one of the nastiest campaigns this cycle.  All told, 538 is relying on fundraising and Democratic-leaning fundamentals to overcome polling data. 

RCP lists the House as Democrats 204, Republicans 199, with 32 tossups (including the aforementioned KA-2 district).  I still expect the Democrats to win the House, but suspect it will come down to five seats or less, and not be decided until well into the night.  Just my opinion.

sedziobs

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #565 on: October 30, 2018, 08:27:32 PM »
The most perplexing call is KA-2.  This is a heavily Republican district (Trump by 18%, Romney and McCain by double digits, etc.), and the latest Emerson poll shows the GOP candidate with a 7% advantage, but 538 lists this as a Democratic pickup due largely to a 3:1 Democratic fundraising advantage.
It shouldn't be perplexing.  538 tells you exactly how their model weighs each individual "fundamental".  In KA-2, the biggest Democratic leaning factor is that the Republican candidate is involved in a scandal.  Of course that's very subjective, but it's not perplexing.  And I'm not sure why you only mentioned the Emerson poll, and not the two other recent polls that averaged D+3.

As for CA-25, the Democrat has 7 times more funds than the Republican.  Maybe you don't agree with the impact, but it's not confusing how 538 came up with their odds.

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #566 on: October 30, 2018, 08:36:04 PM »
It looking more and more like Trump will be a drag on GOP results in the midterms:

Title: "Trump Approval Rating Plunges Amid Violence as Midterms Approach"

http://fortune.com/2018/10/29/trump-approval-rating-plunges/

Extract: "President Donald Trump’s job approval rating plunged 4 percentage points last week amid a wave of violence, the latest troubling signal for Republican chances in upcoming midterm elections."
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Klondike Kat

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #567 on: October 30, 2018, 11:28:22 PM »
The most perplexing call is KA-2.  This is a heavily Republican district (Trump by 18%, Romney and McCain by double digits, etc.), and the latest Emerson poll shows the GOP candidate with a 7% advantage, but 538 lists this as a Democratic pickup due largely to a 3:1 Democratic fundraising advantage.
It shouldn't be perplexing.  538 tells you exactly how their model weighs each individual "fundamental".  In KA-2, the biggest Democratic leaning factor is that the Republican candidate is involved in a scandal.  Of course that's very subjective, but it's not perplexing.  And I'm not sure why you only mentioned the Emerson poll, and not the two other recent polls that averaged D+3.

As for CA-25, the Democrat has 7 times more funds than the Republican.  Maybe you don't agree with the impact, but it's not confusing how 538 came up with their odds.

Both candidates in the Kansas district are scandal-ridden. The Republican candidate’s is an unconfirmed accusation (so far), while the Democrat’s is confirmed. Both occurred years ago.  The previous poll was also Emerson, conducted a month ago, so that was a big change.

I know 538 uses fund raising as a metric.  They used it in 2016 when Clinton held a 3:1 advantage, and we know how that turned out.  I am just not sold on their metrics or optimism.  Maybe it just caution after being burned.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #568 on: October 31, 2018, 12:35:09 AM »
Clinton did get more votes, but she put her money into AZ and GA instead of PA, WI and MI.
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mostly_lurking

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #569 on: October 31, 2018, 09:16:02 AM »

Title: "Trump Approval Rating Plunges Amid Violence as Midterms Approach"

http://fortune.com/2018/10/29/trump-approval-rating-plunges/


No "plunge" detected. Zero plunge even. One poll means zilch.

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #570 on: October 31, 2018, 12:35:55 PM »
The USC/LA Times poll ...... the poll that correctly called the 2016 race for Trump over Clinton .... has the Democrat’s with a lead of 57 to 40 in the most current “generic Congressional ballot.

Now ..... to be fair .... the USC/LA Times poll in 2016, while correctly predicting Trump as the winner ... did NOT predict the popular vote correctly.  It had Trump winning by 3 million votes, and Trump actually LOST the popular vote. 😱

Also, if you go back historically and look at the Gallup presidential approval poll right before the midterm compared to the number of seats lost by the sitting presidents party ..... Trump’s current Gallup approval rate of 40% translates to a loss of seats in the House of 40 (Source:  Steve Rattner of Morning Joe).

But I’m sure our Russian friends on this website probably have more insight than those sources, and the elections in the House will be a break even.  Which itself is interesting ... because those Russian sources were calling for the Republicans to easily keep the House just a couple months ago.  Must be the early Russian winter setting in ....😉
« Last Edit: October 31, 2018, 05:03:16 PM by Buddy »
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sedziobs

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #571 on: October 31, 2018, 02:53:18 PM »
I know 538 uses fund raising as a metric.  They used it in 2016 when Clinton held a 3:1 advantage, and we know how that turned out.  I am just not sold on their metrics or optimism.  Maybe it just caution after being burned.

538's forecast wasn't so bad in comparison to others.
Quote
Just last week, Nate Silver’s polls-only forecast gave Hillary Clinton an overwhelming 85 percent chance of winning. But as of Thursday morning, her odds have fallen down to 66.9 percent — suggesting that while Donald Trump is still the underdog, there’s a one-in-three shot he’ll end up the next president. Liberals have tried to comfort themselves with the knowledge that FiveThirtyEight is an outlier among the six major forecasts, and that the other five give Trump between a 16 percent and a sub-1 percent chance of winning.
...
So how likely is it that there will be either a polling error (either nationwide or in enough states to tip the scale) or a last-minute swing the polls simply don’t have time to pick up on (again, either nationwide or in enough key states)? All the other models are essentially telling us that given the data we have, these scenarios are very unlikely to transpire — but Silver’s is warning not to count it out.
...
Other models are leaning more towards assuming that with so much polling in so many states showing Clinton narrowly ahead, it’s highly unlikely that they’ll all be wrong in the same way. But Silver’s model thinks a “miss” in national polling would likely be reflected in swing states too — even states that have been considered part of Clinton’s “firewall” up until now.
https://www.vox.com/2016/11/3/13147678/nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-trump-forecast

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #572 on: October 31, 2018, 03:20:32 PM »

Title: "Trump Approval Rating Plunges Amid Violence as Midterms Approach"

http://fortune.com/2018/10/29/trump-approval-rating-plunges/


No "plunge" detected. Zero plunge even. One poll means zilch.

Even the elected Republican officials declined to meet with Trump on his recent visit to Pittsburgh:

Title: "Trump Visits Pittsburgh As Local Officials Decline To Join Him"

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-pittsburgh-synagogue-visit-shooting_us_5bd8c95ae4b01abe6a190541

&

Title: "Trump’s Visit To Pittsburgh — A City That Didn’t Want Him"

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-pittsburgh-protest-mourning_us_5bd92a8de4b019a7ab5841c5
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #573 on: October 31, 2018, 03:29:15 PM »
In less than a week we will find out just how good Pelosi is at projecting the coming blue wave in the 2018 midterm elections:

Title: "Nancy Pelosi’s Bold Midterms Prediction Freaks Out Stephen Colbert"

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/nancy-pelosi-stephen-colbert-midterms-prediction_us_5bd96822e4b0da7bfc15394d

Extract: "Pelosi was adamant. “The Democrats will carry the House, if we have a bigger victory, the Senate, governorships,” she said. “It’s going to be a great night for America.”"
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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mostly_lurking

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #574 on: October 31, 2018, 03:49:28 PM »

Even the elected Republican officials declined to meet with Trump on his recent visit to Pittsburgh:


It doesn't matter. Just the people matter.
In the hospital in Pittsburgh.

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #575 on: October 31, 2018, 04:07:23 PM »

Even the elected Republican officials declined to meet with Trump on his recent visit to Pittsburgh:


It doesn't matter. Just the people matter.
In the hospital in Pittsburgh.

Even Kanye West has turned his back on Trump and his alt-right agenda:

Title: "Kanye West turns his back on Trump, says he’s done being ‘used’ for conservative agenda"

https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/10/30/kanye-west-turns-his-back-on-trump-is-done-with-being-used-for-the-conservative-agenda/

Extract: "“My eyes are now wide open and now realize I’ve been used to spread messages I don’t believe in,” he tweeted. “I am distancing myself from politics and completely focusing on being creative !!!”"
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

mostly_lurking

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #576 on: October 31, 2018, 04:33:48 PM »


Extract: "“My eyes are now wide open and now realize I’ve been used to spread messages I don’t believe in,” he tweeted. “I am distancing myself from politics and completely focusing on being creative !!!”"

Yes he was talking specifically about Candice Owens and the Blexit thing. I doubt he thinks differently about Trump. But he has a business and it might be hurting him so... what choice did the left give him? Still, he was a bit crazy before and after...

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #577 on: October 31, 2018, 05:00:08 PM »
Just a reminder that Gallup's most recent poll shows Trump's approval rating dropped 4 points in one week:

Title: "Poll: Trump approval drops 4 points in a week"

https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/413671-poll-trump-approval-drops-four-points-in-a-week

Extract: "President Trump's approval rating dropped 4 points last week, essentially erasing the gains he made in Gallup polling during the previous four weeks.

The Gallup weekly approval rating tracker showed that Trump's approval rating dipped to 40 percent for the week ending on Sunday. Fifty-four percent of Americans now disapprove of the president's job performance, according to the poll."
« Last Edit: October 31, 2018, 06:15:32 PM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #578 on: October 31, 2018, 06:15:13 PM »
It looks likes Trump's plan to end birthright citizenship will likely increase the number of seat that the Democrats win in the House:

Title: "Trump surprise rattles GOP in final stretch"

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/413980-trump-surprise-rattles-gop-in-final-stretch

Extract: "President Trump’s plan to end birthright citizenship has tossed a grenade into the final stretch of the midterm elections, roiling centrist Republicans and further endangering a House majority already at risk of slipping away."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #579 on: October 31, 2018, 07:33:01 PM »
Trump is taking some of his midterm campaign rhetoric directly from the KKK playbook.  This will cost the GOP some more House seats:

Title: "David Duke Godson Calls Trump's Birthright Citizenship Removal Plan 'Goal of White Nationalists'"

https://www.newsweek.com/trumps-birthright-citizenship-removal-plan-goal-white-nationalists-decades-1194690

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #580 on: October 31, 2018, 07:35:46 PM »
Even some Fox News hosts think that Trump's midterm campaign rhetoric has gone too far:

Title: "'It's disturbing': Fox News host slams Trump's anti-media rhetoric"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/31/fox-news-martha-maccallum-trump-949481
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #581 on: October 31, 2018, 07:40:47 PM »
Even Paul Ryan thinks that Trump's midterm campaign rhetoric has gone too far; which will likely cost the GOP some moderate votes:

Title: "Ryan at odds with Trump on birthright citizenship"

https://wcyb.com/news/connect-to-congress/ryan-at-odds-with-trump-on-birthright-citizenship

Extract: "House Speaker Paul Ryan said Tuesday President Donald Trump can't end birthright citizenship on his own."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #582 on: October 31, 2018, 07:59:41 PM »
The Bloomberg editorial board makes the case for a change to a Democratic Congress this November. Any patriot who cares about checks and balances will vote for a Democratic Congress this November.

Title: "Trump Makes the Case for a Democratic Congress"

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-10-31/michael-bloomberg-trump-makes-case-for-democrats-in-congress

Extract: "His anti-immigration ploys show the need for checks and balances."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #583 on: October 31, 2018, 08:08:56 PM »
I copied the Fox News Hose Power Rankings a few times this election season (NH) fall.  Some snapshots of their rankings:

Date   Likely D  Lean D  Tossup  Lean R  Likely R
Sep17   189        13          30        36        167
Oct19    191        16          31        26        171
Oct31    192        15          29        33        166

Dems are basically up 5 seats over these past 6 weeks, and Repubs are basically down 4 seats.  I'd rather have the D-team's trajectory right now!
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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #584 on: October 31, 2018, 08:33:27 PM »
Just a reminder that Gallup's most recent poll shows Trump's approval rating dropped 4 points in one week:

Title: "Poll: Trump approval drops 4 points in a week"

https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/413671-poll-trump-approval-drops-four-points-in-a-week

Extract: "President Trump's approval rating dropped 4 points last week, essentially erasing the gains he made in Gallup polling during the previous four weeks.

The Gallup weekly approval rating tracker showed that Trump's approval rating dipped to 40 percent for the week ending on Sunday. Fifty-four percent of Americans now disapprove of the president's job performance, according to the poll."

Looking at the long term Gallup polling, his numbers are basically unchanged singe April.  His approval was below 40% for much of the previous year, but edged above that six months ago.  Looking at a week to week change and making a trajectory claim is like looking at the Arctic sea minimum in subsequent years and making a similar claim.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/203207/trump-job-approval-weekly.aspx?version=print

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #585 on: October 31, 2018, 08:42:35 PM »
Quote
Looking at a week to week change and making a trajectory claim is like looking at the Arctic sea minimum in subsequent years and making a similar claim.
I think it more like looking at regional ASI area or extent data over a few weeks and preferring one set of data (as to its suggested projected outcome) over another. 
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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #586 on: October 31, 2018, 08:52:46 PM »
I know 538 uses fund raising as a metric.  They used it in 2016 when Clinton held a 3:1 advantage, and we know how that turned out.  I am just not sold on their metrics or optimism.  Maybe it just caution after being burned.

538's forecast wasn't so bad in comparison to others.
Quote
Just last week, Nate Silver’s polls-only forecast gave Hillary Clinton an overwhelming 85 percent chance of winning. But as of Thursday morning, her odds have fallen down to 66.9 percent — suggesting that while Donald Trump is still the underdog, there’s a one-in-three shot he’ll end up the next president. Liberals have tried to comfort themselves with the knowledge that FiveThirtyEight is an outlier among the six major forecasts, and that the other five give Trump between a 16 percent and a sub-1 percent chance of winning.
...
So how likely is it that there will be either a polling error (either nationwide or in enough states to tip the scale) or a last-minute swing the polls simply don’t have time to pick up on (again, either nationwide or in enough key states)? All the other models are essentially telling us that given the data we have, these scenarios are very unlikely to transpire — but Silver’s is warning not to count it out.
...
Other models are leaning more towards assuming that with so much polling in so many states showing Clinton narrowly ahead, it’s highly unlikely that they’ll all be wrong in the same way. But Silver’s model thinks a “miss” in national polling would likely be reflected in swing states too — even states that have been considered part of Clinton’s “firewall” up until now.
https://www.vox.com/2016/11/3/13147678/nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-trump-forecast

On Nov. 8, 2016, 538 predicted Clinton would win the electoral college 303-235 (with no tossups), with her narrowly winning FL, NC, and likely winning PA, MI, and WI.  They also had Trump narrowly winning in AZ and OH.    Conversely, RCP had it Clinton 272-266, with Trump narrowly winning FL and NC.  RCP had PA a much closer race than 538.  I still question the metrics that Nate Silvers uses in adjusting his polling numbers.  They were wrong in 2016.  Will they be wrong again in 2018?

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #587 on: October 31, 2018, 09:03:38 PM »
In 2016 USC/LA Times had Trump beating Clinton.  In fact, they had that outcome for MANY MONTHS BEFORE the election.

Fast forward to today and USC/LA Times have the “generic Congressional ballot” as Dems 57% and Republicans 40%?

Will USC/LA Times be right again?
« Last Edit: November 01, 2018, 12:07:49 AM by Buddy »
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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #588 on: November 01, 2018, 05:24:45 PM »
While fearmongering is staple of GOP campaigning, the American voters can show their disdain for ads by voting for a blue wave:

Title: "Trump Compares Migrants In Caravan To Cop Killer In Fearmongering Ad"

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-ad-undocumented-immigrants-midterms_us_5bdac1a8e4b019a7ab5a5f45

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #589 on: November 01, 2018, 05:41:57 PM »
The project surge of youth voting will likely contribute to the coming blue wave:

Title: "A horde of millennials are running for office"

https://www.axios.com/millennials-poised-to-shake-up-state-legislatures-next-year-5d0a5205-d229-4eba-8d72-97bf90923327.html

Extract: "Why it matters: Numerous studies signal a surge of youth voting in next Tuesday's midterm elections. But what has been less apparent is that millennials — as a group holding very different views by and large from older Americans — may significantly increase their seats in state legislatures and Congress.

•   About 700 millennial candidates are running in the approximately 6,000 state legislative races.
•   Most are Democrats."

Edit, see also:

Title: "Young Americans signal record turnout for midterm elections, reject Trump and the GOP: Poll"

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/01/young-americans-signal-record-midterm-turnout-reject-trump-gop-poll.html
« Last Edit: November 01, 2018, 06:14:21 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #590 on: November 01, 2018, 06:59:34 PM »
Per my definition of a blue wave (a net change of at least 34 House seats), the linked Cook Political Report indicates that the Democrats are currently on track to realize this metric:

Title: "Cook Political Report changes a midterm projection — and it’s not good for Republicans"

https://www.theblaze.com/news/2018/10/31/cook-political-report-changes-a-midterm-projection-and-its-not-good-for-republicans

Extract: "“Based on the past week’s evidence, we’re revising our House outlook to a Dem gain of 30-40 seats (was 25-35 last month) at @CookPolitical,” Wasserman wrote. “This could change again before Tuesday.”"
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #591 on: November 01, 2018, 07:13:42 PM »
Per my definition of a blue wave (a net change of at least 34 House seats), the linked Cook Political Report indicates that the Democrats are currently on track to realize this metric:

Title: "Cook Political Report changes a midterm projection — and it’s not good for Republicans"

https://www.theblaze.com/news/2018/10/31/cook-political-report-changes-a-midterm-projection-and-its-not-good-for-republicans

Extract: "“Based on the past week’s evidence, we’re revising our House outlook to a Dem gain of 30-40 seats (was 25-35 last month) at @CookPolitical,” Wasserman wrote. “This could change again before Tuesday.”"

I would call that a small wave, slightly more than a ripple.  A truly blue wave would involve gaining Senate seats, although that is becoming increasingly unlikely.

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #592 on: November 01, 2018, 07:32:42 PM »
We should be able to glean a lot from the first wave of voting states on the east coast come Tuesday night:  New Jersey, Pennsylvania, New York, Virginia, Georgia, Florida, etc.

Should give us a good reading as to how the House is going to go.  As far as the “inside straight” of the Senate ..... the only thing we’ll know early is whether the door is already slammed shut on the Dems taking back the Senate.  Will the door be shut early, or will Dem’s have an “outsized night” and keep us awake until late?
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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #593 on: November 01, 2018, 08:45:23 PM »
Steve King (R) appears to be spiraling towards the drain:

Title: "Steve King's opponent sees massive fundraising spike amid controversies"

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/414367-steve-kings-opponent-sees-massive-fundraising-spike-amid-controversies

Extract: "GOP Rep. Steve King’s Democratic opponent has reportedly seen a massive fundraising spike over the past two days as controversy swirls around the Iowa incumbent.

J.D. Scholten, a former professional baseball player running to unseat the lawmaker, raised more than $641,000 over Tuesday and Wednesday, his campaign told Politico.

The haul comes as King faces backlash over his comments about immigration and links to white nationalist groups."
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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #594 on: November 01, 2018, 08:57:23 PM »
Unless one thinks that the majority of US voters are bigots, then one should agree with the linked op/ed that "… there’s more evidence that this stuff hurts Trump’s party than that it helps."

Title: "Trump’s Bigotry Isn’t Working"

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-11-01/trump-s-bigotry-isn-t-working

Extract: "There’s no evidence that the president’s racist rhetoric is actually helping his party win votes."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #595 on: November 02, 2018, 06:36:11 AM »
Democrats, are you going to let Donald Trump tell you that you are dead, or are you going to make him and the GOP pay a price for their fearmongering?

Title: "Trump declares 'the blue wave is dead'"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/01/trump-2018-midterm-blue-wave-dead-953092

Extract: "President Donald Trump insisted on Wednesday that the Democratic Party does not have the midterm momentum that its leaders have claimed, proclaiming that “the blue wave is dead.”"

&

Title: "Trump's immigration obsession could backfire, some Republicans fear"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/01/trump-immigration-migrant-caravan-2018-elections-republican-party-956659

Extracts: "Ignoring pleas for a closing focus on the economy, Trump embraces a fiery finale that has distressed vulnerable GOP candidates.

Operating under the assumption that talking tough on immigration can energize enough Republicans to stymie a “blue wave” of Democratic midterm voters, Trump has spent the past week unveiling restrictive immigration policies at a dizzying pace and making erroneous declarations about a caravan of Central American migrants."
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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #596 on: November 02, 2018, 06:58:11 AM »
This could give Sinema up to a 6% boost in her fight for one of Arizona's Senate seats:

Title: "Sinema endorsed by Green Party Senate candidate"

https://www.12news.com/article/news/politics/sinema-endorsed-by-green-party-senate-candidate/75-0fd3f6c5-2792-4dfa-b48f-094598f6ba32

Extract: "The Green Party candidate, political newcomer Angela Green, has garnered up to 6 percent of the vote in recent polls. Polling averages show McSally and Sinema separated by a point or two."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #597 on: November 02, 2018, 12:55:24 PM »
Four minutes (Days) left in the game.  Time for a full court press.  Talk to your co-workers today/Monday/Tuesday and get them out to VOTE BLUE.

Talk to your friends and family over the next 4 days and do the same.

Budmantis ..... Florida is CRUCIAL.  Go Blue ...
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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #598 on: November 02, 2018, 01:25:42 PM »
If you folks get a chance to visit Alyse Galvin’s website .... I encourage you to do so.  She is an Independent running for the single House seat in Alaska.

Great background .... and if you read the info about her kids you will be gobsmacked in a very good way.  RealClearPolitics has her listed as a Democrat ... but she is an Independent, and is NOT taking PAC money.

https://www.alyse4alaska.com/meet-alyse/
« Last Edit: November 02, 2018, 01:47:17 PM by Buddy »
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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #599 on: November 02, 2018, 01:52:59 PM »
We all have choices in life.  We can eat crappy food or food that is good for you.  We also choose who we associate with.

Ted Cruz has chosen to associate with a racist ...... Steve King of Iowa.  And Cruz isn't moving away from him.

Getting a racist like Steve King out of Congress would be a BIG STEP in the right direction for Congress.  Getting a supporter of his like Ted Cruz out of Congress ..... likewise ..... would be another step in the right direction to bringing CIVILITY back to Congress.

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/11/01/final-days-re-election-bid-ted-cruz-haunted-alliance-steve-king/
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