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Author Topic: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election  (Read 4383 times)

Buddy

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #150 on: August 10, 2018, 01:59:08 PM »
Let’s take a look and see where the blue ripple/wave/tsunami is right now as seen from the lens of real politics.com for the upcoming election in November:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/2018/

1). Senate:  45 Dems, 48 Republicans, and 7 tossups.  As I said before, the Dens would have to draw an “inside straight” in order to take the Senate.  Highly unlikely ..... but possible.  They could also lose seats to the Republicans.  Anything is possible, however, with Traitor Don at the steering wheel.

2). House:
  199 Dems, 196 Republicans, and 40 tossups (all but two of the tossups are currently Republican seats).  This is the first time that the Dems have moved to the lead on Realclearpolitics.  The CURRENT ACTUAL count in the House is:  193 Dems, 235 Republicans, and 7 vacant.  So unless something DRASTIC happens ...... there is indeed a blue wave in the House.  218 seats are needed for a majority ..... so as of TODAY ..... the Dems have the advantage.

3). Governorships:  20 Dems, 21 Republicans, 9 tossups.  The Dems have continued to chip away at the Republican advantage ever since the Orange Turd took over in the Oval Office. 

Still 3 months left ..... so anything can happen, but as of now ..... there is definitely a blue wave coming.  The question will be what magnitude?
« Last Edit: August 10, 2018, 03:35:30 PM by Buddy »
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Neven

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #151 on: August 10, 2018, 02:00:32 PM »
The question will be what magnitude?

And what kind of blue.
Compare, compare, compare

Lurk

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #152 on: August 10, 2018, 05:18:13 PM »
Turquoise is my favorite blue.
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Susan Anderson

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #153 on: August 10, 2018, 05:48:21 PM »
For those who think Democrats don't have their eye on the ball, it is encouraging (and true) [garn, can't find the link, and it was a very good summary!] that Democrats are focusing on the issues and letting Trump and the Russian stuff speak for itself.

I repeat: Democrats are focusing on the issues for the constituents. They know they don't need to attack Trump, who is a living breathing poison pill for his party.

and this: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/09/opinion/columnists/left-sanders-ocasio-cortez-primaries.html

Neven

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #154 on: August 11, 2018, 12:47:05 AM »
Compare, compare, compare

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #155 on: August 11, 2018, 08:04:29 PM »
For those who think Democrats don't have their eye on the ball, it is encouraging (and true) [garn, can't find the link, and it was a very good summary!] that Democrats are focusing on the issues and letting Trump and the Russian stuff speak for itself.

I repeat: Democrats are focusing on the issues for the constituents. They know they don't need to attack Trump, who is a living breathing poison pill for his party.

and this: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/09/opinion/columnists/left-sanders-ocasio-cortez-primaries.html
+1
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #156 on: August 14, 2018, 10:04:29 PM »
It looks like the Mueller Investigation is damaging Trump's credibility with voters:

Title: "CNN's new poll has very little good news for Donald Trump on Russia"

https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/14/politics/donald-trump-robert-mueller-poll/index.html

Extract:
"•    55% disapprove of how Trump is handling the "investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election." Just 34% approve.
•   47% approve of how Mueller is handling the probe as opposed to 39% who disapprove, an improvement from the 41% approve/29% disapprove in CNN's last poll in June.
•   Almost six in 10 think Russia's attempted interference in the 2016 campaign is a "serious matter that should be fully investigated."
•   56% think Trump has attempted to interfere in the investigation.
•   Just more than one in three (37%) of respondents say Trump's public statements about the Russia probe have been completely or mostly true. By contrast, 56% believe what Trump has said about the investigation is either mostly or completely false.
•   Almost 80% of Democrats say that the investigation into Russian interference will be either extremely or very important to their votes for Congress this fall."
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Buddy

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #157 on: August 15, 2018, 05:15:08 AM »
Looks like Donnie is still going after Harley Davidson.  That should play well in Pennsylvania where they have a large factory, and in Wisconsin which is where corporate HQ is located (I believe).

Good thing there aren’t elections coming up in 3 months ...😱
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mostly_lurking

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #158 on: August 15, 2018, 08:31:28 AM »
Looks like Donnie is still going after Harley Davidson.  That should play well in Pennsylvania where they have a large factory, and in Wisconsin which is where corporate HQ is located (I believe).

Good thing there aren’t elections coming up in 3 months ...😱
For once I agree with you. Only think that really matters (bar something catastrophic) is the economic stuff.

Buddy

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #159 on: August 15, 2018, 04:30:26 PM »
So how much "squeezing" will the Republicans running for Congress take before they back off from Traitor Trump?

They don't seem to backing off much yet .....

RealClearPolitics has the Dems forecast at 199, Republicans at 194, and 42 tossups (40 of those in what are now Republican held districts).

The actual CURRENT COUNT NOW IN OFFICE is 193 Dems, 235 Republicans, and 7 current vacancies.  The counted needed by either party for a majority is 218.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html

A couple months ago .... the Republicans were at about 205.  So they have "slipped" about 10 seats in those two months.  Pennsylvania, Ohio, New York, and California are the concentrated battle grounds where the Dem's could potentially pick up the most ..... especially in the now "tossup states" and "lean Republican states".

If I were Donnie ...... I would continue trashing Harley in order to tick off people in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania where Harley has operations.  I'm sure that will make them happy voters.... ;)

How much "bleeding" will the Republicans in Congress put up with before they give Traitor Donnie the "heave ho"?  If the polls slip another 10 seats in the coming 2 months will they "jettison" him then?  It will be interesting to see....



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mostly_lurking

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #160 on: August 15, 2018, 04:40:40 PM »

How much "bleeding" will the Republicans in Congress put up with before they give Traitor Donnie the "heave ho"?  If the polls slip another 10 seats in the coming 2 months will they "jettison" him then?  It will be interesting to see....

At this time they all want his blessing and support- even Cruz  ;D
Unless a " blue tidal wave" happens I don't think Trump has to worry.

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #161 on: August 15, 2018, 08:31:18 PM »
The blue wave is picking-up momemtum:

Title: "Polls: Democrats eroding GOP's turnout edge in midterms"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/15/politico-poll-midterms-voter-turnout-778398

Extract: "A trio of new polls show that Democrats are cutting into the GOP's longstanding turnout advantage in midterm elections, another encouraging sign for the minority party's hopes of winning the House in November."
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Buddy

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #162 on: August 16, 2018, 03:27:32 PM »


House: Three More GOP Seats Join the Toss Up Column

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/house-three-more-gop-seats-join-toss-column

David Wasserman, Cook Political Report
August 15, 2018

Quote
For Republicans, the 2018 House playing field is a lot like a game of Whack-a-Mole: everywhere they turn, new problems keep popping up in surprising places. In January, we rated 20 GOP-held seats as Toss Ups or worse, including three leaning towards Democrats. With today's changes, we now rate 37 GOP-held seats as Toss Ups or worse, including ten leaning towards Democrats.

Probably just a "blip".  I'm sure it's nothing for the Republicans to worry about, and it could just as easily reverse itself in coming weeks.....
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mostly_lurking

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #163 on: August 16, 2018, 03:39:16 PM »
..snip

Probably just a "blip".  I'm sure it's nothing for the Republicans to worry about, and it could just as easily reverse itself in coming weeks.....

It could and this is before Trump goes on a serious rally tour closer to the election.

Shame there isn't a poll on this thread- Will the house go Blue in 2018?   
I'm on record here. No.


AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #164 on: August 16, 2018, 04:59:25 PM »
Recent assessments indicate that the Democrats are gaining ground in the 2018 House Elections:

Title: "Tracking the House Races to Watch in the 2018 Midterm Elections"

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/us/elections/house-race-ratings.html

Extract: "Democrats must flip at least 23 Republican-held seats to retake the House this November. There are currently 62 highly competitive seats — those considered a tossup between the two parties or leaning slightly toward one —

The ratings for dozens of competitive congressional races have shifted in the direction of Democrats in recent months."

See also, the linked website host's FiveThirtyEight's articles about the 2018 House Elections.

Title: “2018 House Elections”

https://fivethirtyeight.com/tag/2018-house-elections/
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #165 on: August 16, 2018, 07:56:40 PM »
FiveThirtyEight gives the Democrats just over a 75% chance of winning control of the House in 2018:

Title: "Forecasting the race for the House"

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

See also:

Title: "FiveThirtyEight says Dems have 75 percent chance of winning House"

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/402159-fivethirtyeight-says-dems-have-75-percent-chance-of-winning
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mostly_lurking

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #166 on: August 17, 2018, 10:45:30 AM »
FiveThirtyEight gives the Democrats just over a 75% chance of winning control of the House in

So about the same as they gave Hillary.  ::)

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #167 on: August 17, 2018, 06:23:53 PM »
In my opinion, the real reason that Trump cancelled his November 2018 military parade is because he doesn't want to celebrate the Democrat's regaining control of the House in the midterm election:

Title: "Trump cancels military parade over high cost estimates"

https://www.axios.com/trump-cancels-military-parade-over-high-cost-estimates-351367d8-c2ca-46f8-92d5-03c18c03669a.html

&

Title: "D.C. mayor mocks Trump after he cancels military parade"

https://www.axios.com/tag/military-parades/
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #168 on: August 17, 2018, 06:27:07 PM »
FiveThirtyEight gives the Democrats just over a 75% chance of winning control of the House in

So about the same as they gave Hillary.  ::)
For those who might take your post the wrong way, FiveThirtyEight only needed to be wrong about one seat to be wrong in HRC's case, but they would need to be wrong about multiple seats in order to be wrong in their forecast regarding control of the House.  Thus their current forecast is much more robust.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #169 on: August 17, 2018, 06:57:26 PM »
It is always nice to look on the bright side of life:

Title: "Worst-case scenario for House GOP is 70-seat wipeout"

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/402329-worst-case-scenario-for-house-gop-is-70-seat-wipeout

Extract: "… the worst-case scenario for the GOP is a truly historic wipeout of as many as 72 House seats, according to The Hill’s analysis of special election results and congressional and presidential returns from 2016."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #170 on: August 17, 2018, 11:10:38 PM »
The article speaks for itself:

Title: "Here Are 5 Reasons Why Republicans Should Be Worried About the 2018 Midterms"

https://www.alternet.org/news-amp-politics/here-are-5-reasons-why-republicans-should-be-worried-about-2018-midterms

Extract: " …five reasons why Republicans should be worried going into the November midterms: (1) the history of midterms, (2) the 2018 midterms will be a referendum on Donald Trump's presidency, (3) enthusiasm among Democrats, (4) the influence of female voters, and (5) a "shifting midterm coalition.""
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SteveMDFP

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #171 on: August 18, 2018, 12:30:40 AM »
FiveThirtyEight gives the Democrats just over a 75% chance of winning control of the House in

So about the same as they gave Hillary.  ::)

As I recall, 538.com projected Cheeto Mussolini to have a 20% chance or so of winning.  This proved far more prescient than other major pollsters or pundits.  Nate Silver is no slouch.

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #172 on: August 18, 2018, 05:49:00 PM »
The Democrats know that there is no value in talking about impeachment (as Mueller will take care of that); so instead they are talking about real things that matter to voters, like health care:

Title: "The 2018 midterms, explained by this Heidi Heitkamp ad"

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/8/17/17720552/2018-midterms-heidi-heitkamp-ad-health-care

Extract: "Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) faces one of 2018’s most difficult reelection campaigns. Donald Trump won her state of North Dakota by nearly 30 points in 2016. He still enjoys a positive approval rating there. The early polls show Heitkamp and her Republican opponent, Rep. Kevin Cramer, neck and neck in the November general election.

So as we round the corner and head into the fall, what is Heitkamp focusing on? Obamacare — and preexisting conditions, specifically."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #173 on: August 18, 2018, 07:12:24 PM »
The linked article/image indicates that given Trump's current Gallup approval rating of 39% the GOP should lose more than 60 House seats in the 2018 midterm elections:

Title: "The midterm elections could paralyze a key instrument of Trump's agenda for the US economy"

https://www.businessinsider.com/midterm-elections-may-cost-trump-key-policy-tool-rattner-charts-2018-8

Extract: "The red boxes on the chart below represent a midterm election, plotted by the president's approval rating and the number of House seats gained or lost. Based on Gallup's approval rating, at 39%, Rattner sees the GOP losing as many as 60 seats."
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mostly_lurking

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #174 on: August 19, 2018, 08:47:55 AM »
The linked article/image indicates that given Trump's current Gallup approval rating of 39% the GOP should lose more than 60 House seats in the 2018 midterm elections:

Title: "The midterm elections could paralyze a key instrument of Trump's agenda for the US economy"

https://www.businessinsider.com/midterm-elections-may-cost-trump-key-policy-tool-rattner-charts-2018-8

Extract: "The red boxes on the chart below represent a midterm election, plotted by the president's approval rating and the number of House seats gained or lost. Based on Gallup's approval rating, at 39%, Rattner sees the GOP losing as many as 60 seats."

1) Taking the outlier poll is disingenuous. Most of the polls ( and averages) are 42%-43%
2) There is correlation but also some way off.
3) NOTHING about the Trump presidency is standard- hard to take anything from previous times.

edit:  4) At another glance it seems that over 50% positive puts you in the safe zone and anything under is basically a toss up- anything can happen.

Funny thing is it seems being BETWEEN 45-50% is the worse case. All those under 45% (like Trump)  did ok  :)
« Last Edit: August 19, 2018, 09:17:34 AM by mostly_lurking »

mostly_lurking

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #175 on: August 19, 2018, 09:21:05 AM »
Just an hypothesis why the above happens.

Over 50% is easy.

45%-50%...hmm.... it's like a message :" Your OK but we expected better- take a small warning"

Under 45%.... maybe : "everything is shitty and nothing will ever change" ?

Lurk

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #176 on: August 19, 2018, 09:28:29 AM »
The linked article/image indicates that given Trump's current Gallup approval rating of 39% the GOP should lose more than 60 House seats in the 2018 midterm elections:

Should lose? More exaggeration and bias over a simplistic pretty graph? Thank goodness climate science data graphs are of a higher quality. (sigh)

So in 2010 Obama's Democrats lost ~62 seats, right? In 2014 with an even lower approval rating = very close to Trumps current approval rating = the Dems lost only 10 seats. Come on, this is silly and irrelevant - a wild theory and hypothetical based on nonsense surely? 

How about relaxing and waiting patiently until the 10th November and read about the real results in the newspapers or 538 RCP or in the NYTs? No matter what Trumps approval ratings are, the Repubs could lose 60 seats, lose a 100 seats, or pickup 20 new seats for all we know. This 'graph' makes no difference to any of that.  It's mindless fodder for the masses and the gullible - so why is it being posted here?

Can't you find something really intelligent & unbiased that's backed up with credible research, data and analysis worth reading? I suspect you can't but that isn't your fault if it doesn't exist. :)
It's wise to not underestimate the role of human stupidity.

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #177 on: August 19, 2018, 06:43:10 PM »
Can't you find something really intelligent & unbiased that's backed up with credible research, data and analysis worth reading? I suspect you can't but that isn't your fault if it doesn't exist. :)

On average 85% of incumbents get reelected, thus the GOP midterm exodus illustrated in the attached image indicates that the GOP will likely be in trouble come November 2018:
« Last Edit: August 19, 2018, 07:53:44 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Lurk

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #178 on: August 19, 2018, 07:06:42 PM »
Thanks. 42 house republicans retiring not contesting in 2018.

So ok that means they won't be "incumbents" even though those seats are still currently held by the Rep. party. Sure longterm incumbents have personal advantages, and is why 85% on average are returned. But now another 10% have retired as well.

But would one need to look closely at each specific district to determine what the margin was last election? I doubt that all 42 or even most of those seats will be lost without specifics - not that I am that interested in looking myself. I am happy to wait and let it all unfold whatever the result. I have no skin in the game either way. I'd prefer non-aligned Independents to win every seat and throw all of the rest out to reconsider their futures. Not going to happen.   
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TerryM

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #179 on: August 19, 2018, 08:44:28 PM »
It's certainly a wounderous graph, but seems disconnected from the subject at hand.
The GOP is retiring 21 more house members that the Dems. The largest number of retirements since 1992 when the Dems retired an equal number.
If both parties lose all of the seats in which their incumbent has retired in the coming election, the GOP will still remain in power.


The "out" party is expected to pick up seats during the mid-terms. If they don't it will be a huge disappointment. Not as disappointing as Hillary's loss or Bernie's ouster, but still a very serious loss.


538 has good numbers for Dems today, a 7.8% preference over the GOP. Pollsters cede 6.5% towards the GOP to account for the Gerrymandering in Republican controlled States, leaving a much smaller margin of victory. Trump's approvals lag by 8.4% among likely voters, a huge improvement from the 16.3% negatives he started the year with.


An interesting study might determine which of the up for grab seats are in states where state government was in Republican hands in 2010, the date of the most recent census. In those states I'd expect Gerrymandering to be in full force. This could make a large difference in the expected outcome.


I think the whole thing will be decided by who stays home on election day. sidd has mentioned that his Deplorable neighbors may sit this one out. If this is true, and if it repeats itself across the country it could be a very good night for the Democratic faithful.


If the house does swing Blue, they've a lot of work to do in the 2 years leading up to the next presidential race. They'll need to show Buba that electing Democrats has made life better.
Terry

sidd

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #180 on: August 19, 2018, 08:51:38 PM »
"sidd has mentioned that his Deplorable neighbors may sit this one out."

More precisely, i satd i did not know if they would show up this year. But my very next sentence was that I hadn't expected them to show in 2016...

so i make no predictions.

sidd

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #181 on: August 19, 2018, 09:05:17 PM »
Sorry
My bad, I'd misremembered your post.
No intention to misrepresent your message.
Terry

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #182 on: Today at 02:42:31 AM »
Thanks. 42 house republicans retiring not contesting in 2018.

So ok that means they won't be "incumbents" even though those seats are still currently held by the Rep. party. Sure longterm incumbents have personal advantages, and is why 85% on average are returned. But now another 10% have retired as well.

But would one need to look closely at each specific district to determine what the margin was last election? I doubt that all 42 or even most of those seats will be lost without specifics - not that I am that interested in looking myself. I am happy to wait and let it all unfold whatever the result. I have no skin in the game either way. I'd prefer non-aligned Independents to win every seat and throw all of the rest out to reconsider their futures. Not going to happen.

The linked article provides more analysis of the trends behind the graph, all of which spell trouble for the GOP come November 2018:

Title: "A blue wave is obscuring a red exodus"

https://www.axios.com/2018-midterm-elections-house-republicans-retiring-dave-wasserman-1c985d97-2f73-4ef0-9d5e-7e7dd23c92cf.html

Extract: "The bottom line: "Yes, it's about how upset suburban professional women are, with regard to family separations at the border and Trump's temperament and behavior. But it's also about who's not voting. And that's primarily men without college degrees who are Trump true believers."

- "They believed in Trump fervently, but they've never liked congressional Republicans at all. In fact, Trump gained ground by running against them in 2016. So why are they going to turn out this year for congressional Republicans?""
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #183 on: Today at 03:25:03 AM »
Yet another indication that Democrats will likely control the House after the midterms:

Title: "Poll: Democrats in stronger position to take the House"

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/poll-democrats-in-stronger-position-to-take-the-house/ar-BBM7EXa?ocid=spartandhp

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson