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Author Topic: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election  (Read 11145 times)

Buddy

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #150 on: August 10, 2018, 01:59:08 PM »
Let’s take a look and see where the blue ripple/wave/tsunami is right now as seen from the lens of real politics.com for the upcoming election in November:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/2018/

1). Senate:  45 Dems, 48 Republicans, and 7 tossups.  As I said before, the Dens would have to draw an “inside straight” in order to take the Senate.  Highly unlikely ..... but possible.  They could also lose seats to the Republicans.  Anything is possible, however, with Traitor Don at the steering wheel.

2). House:
  199 Dems, 196 Republicans, and 40 tossups (all but two of the tossups are currently Republican seats).  This is the first time that the Dems have moved to the lead on Realclearpolitics.  The CURRENT ACTUAL count in the House is:  193 Dems, 235 Republicans, and 7 vacant.  So unless something DRASTIC happens ...... there is indeed a blue wave in the House.  218 seats are needed for a majority ..... so as of TODAY ..... the Dems have the advantage.

3). Governorships:  20 Dems, 21 Republicans, 9 tossups.  The Dems have continued to chip away at the Republican advantage ever since the Orange Turd took over in the Oval Office. 

Still 3 months left ..... so anything can happen, but as of now ..... there is definitely a blue wave coming.  The question will be what magnitude?
« Last Edit: August 10, 2018, 03:35:30 PM by Buddy »
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Neven

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #151 on: August 10, 2018, 02:00:32 PM »
The question will be what magnitude?

And what kind of blue.
Compare, compare, compare

Lurk

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #152 on: August 10, 2018, 05:18:13 PM »
Turquoise is my favorite blue.
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Susan Anderson

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #153 on: August 10, 2018, 05:48:21 PM »
For those who think Democrats don't have their eye on the ball, it is encouraging (and true) [garn, can't find the link, and it was a very good summary!] that Democrats are focusing on the issues and letting Trump and the Russian stuff speak for itself.

I repeat: Democrats are focusing on the issues for the constituents. They know they don't need to attack Trump, who is a living breathing poison pill for his party.

and this: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/09/opinion/columnists/left-sanders-ocasio-cortez-primaries.html

Neven

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #154 on: August 11, 2018, 12:47:05 AM »
Compare, compare, compare

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #155 on: August 11, 2018, 08:04:29 PM »
For those who think Democrats don't have their eye on the ball, it is encouraging (and true) [garn, can't find the link, and it was a very good summary!] that Democrats are focusing on the issues and letting Trump and the Russian stuff speak for itself.

I repeat: Democrats are focusing on the issues for the constituents. They know they don't need to attack Trump, who is a living breathing poison pill for his party.

and this: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/09/opinion/columnists/left-sanders-ocasio-cortez-primaries.html
+1
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #156 on: August 14, 2018, 10:04:29 PM »
It looks like the Mueller Investigation is damaging Trump's credibility with voters:

Title: "CNN's new poll has very little good news for Donald Trump on Russia"

https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/14/politics/donald-trump-robert-mueller-poll/index.html

Extract:
"•    55% disapprove of how Trump is handling the "investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election." Just 34% approve.
•   47% approve of how Mueller is handling the probe as opposed to 39% who disapprove, an improvement from the 41% approve/29% disapprove in CNN's last poll in June.
•   Almost six in 10 think Russia's attempted interference in the 2016 campaign is a "serious matter that should be fully investigated."
•   56% think Trump has attempted to interfere in the investigation.
•   Just more than one in three (37%) of respondents say Trump's public statements about the Russia probe have been completely or mostly true. By contrast, 56% believe what Trump has said about the investigation is either mostly or completely false.
•   Almost 80% of Democrats say that the investigation into Russian interference will be either extremely or very important to their votes for Congress this fall."
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Buddy

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #157 on: August 15, 2018, 05:15:08 AM »
Looks like Donnie is still going after Harley Davidson.  That should play well in Pennsylvania where they have a large factory, and in Wisconsin which is where corporate HQ is located (I believe).

Good thing there aren’t elections coming up in 3 months ...😱
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mostly_lurking

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #158 on: August 15, 2018, 08:31:28 AM »
Looks like Donnie is still going after Harley Davidson.  That should play well in Pennsylvania where they have a large factory, and in Wisconsin which is where corporate HQ is located (I believe).

Good thing there aren’t elections coming up in 3 months ...😱
For once I agree with you. Only think that really matters (bar something catastrophic) is the economic stuff.

Buddy

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #159 on: August 15, 2018, 04:30:26 PM »
So how much "squeezing" will the Republicans running for Congress take before they back off from Traitor Trump?

They don't seem to backing off much yet .....

RealClearPolitics has the Dems forecast at 199, Republicans at 194, and 42 tossups (40 of those in what are now Republican held districts).

The actual CURRENT COUNT NOW IN OFFICE is 193 Dems, 235 Republicans, and 7 current vacancies.  The counted needed by either party for a majority is 218.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html

A couple months ago .... the Republicans were at about 205.  So they have "slipped" about 10 seats in those two months.  Pennsylvania, Ohio, New York, and California are the concentrated battle grounds where the Dem's could potentially pick up the most ..... especially in the now "tossup states" and "lean Republican states".

If I were Donnie ...... I would continue trashing Harley in order to tick off people in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania where Harley has operations.  I'm sure that will make them happy voters.... ;)

How much "bleeding" will the Republicans in Congress put up with before they give Traitor Donnie the "heave ho"?  If the polls slip another 10 seats in the coming 2 months will they "jettison" him then?  It will be interesting to see....



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mostly_lurking

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #160 on: August 15, 2018, 04:40:40 PM »

How much "bleeding" will the Republicans in Congress put up with before they give Traitor Donnie the "heave ho"?  If the polls slip another 10 seats in the coming 2 months will they "jettison" him then?  It will be interesting to see....

At this time they all want his blessing and support- even Cruz  ;D
Unless a " blue tidal wave" happens I don't think Trump has to worry.

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #161 on: August 15, 2018, 08:31:18 PM »
The blue wave is picking-up momemtum:

Title: "Polls: Democrats eroding GOP's turnout edge in midterms"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/15/politico-poll-midterms-voter-turnout-778398

Extract: "A trio of new polls show that Democrats are cutting into the GOP's longstanding turnout advantage in midterm elections, another encouraging sign for the minority party's hopes of winning the House in November."
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Buddy

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #162 on: August 16, 2018, 03:27:32 PM »


House: Three More GOP Seats Join the Toss Up Column

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/house-three-more-gop-seats-join-toss-column

David Wasserman, Cook Political Report
August 15, 2018

Quote
For Republicans, the 2018 House playing field is a lot like a game of Whack-a-Mole: everywhere they turn, new problems keep popping up in surprising places. In January, we rated 20 GOP-held seats as Toss Ups or worse, including three leaning towards Democrats. With today's changes, we now rate 37 GOP-held seats as Toss Ups or worse, including ten leaning towards Democrats.

Probably just a "blip".  I'm sure it's nothing for the Republicans to worry about, and it could just as easily reverse itself in coming weeks.....
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mostly_lurking

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #163 on: August 16, 2018, 03:39:16 PM »
..snip

Probably just a "blip".  I'm sure it's nothing for the Republicans to worry about, and it could just as easily reverse itself in coming weeks.....

It could and this is before Trump goes on a serious rally tour closer to the election.

Shame there isn't a poll on this thread- Will the house go Blue in 2018?   
I'm on record here. No.


AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #164 on: August 16, 2018, 04:59:25 PM »
Recent assessments indicate that the Democrats are gaining ground in the 2018 House Elections:

Title: "Tracking the House Races to Watch in the 2018 Midterm Elections"

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/us/elections/house-race-ratings.html

Extract: "Democrats must flip at least 23 Republican-held seats to retake the House this November. There are currently 62 highly competitive seats — those considered a tossup between the two parties or leaning slightly toward one —

The ratings for dozens of competitive congressional races have shifted in the direction of Democrats in recent months."

See also, the linked website host's FiveThirtyEight's articles about the 2018 House Elections.

Title: “2018 House Elections”

https://fivethirtyeight.com/tag/2018-house-elections/
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #165 on: August 16, 2018, 07:56:40 PM »
FiveThirtyEight gives the Democrats just over a 75% chance of winning control of the House in 2018:

Title: "Forecasting the race for the House"

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

See also:

Title: "FiveThirtyEight says Dems have 75 percent chance of winning House"

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/402159-fivethirtyeight-says-dems-have-75-percent-chance-of-winning
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mostly_lurking

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #166 on: August 17, 2018, 10:45:30 AM »
FiveThirtyEight gives the Democrats just over a 75% chance of winning control of the House in

So about the same as they gave Hillary.  ::)

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #167 on: August 17, 2018, 06:23:53 PM »
In my opinion, the real reason that Trump cancelled his November 2018 military parade is because he doesn't want to celebrate the Democrat's regaining control of the House in the midterm election:

Title: "Trump cancels military parade over high cost estimates"

https://www.axios.com/trump-cancels-military-parade-over-high-cost-estimates-351367d8-c2ca-46f8-92d5-03c18c03669a.html

&

Title: "D.C. mayor mocks Trump after he cancels military parade"

https://www.axios.com/tag/military-parades/
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #168 on: August 17, 2018, 06:27:07 PM »
FiveThirtyEight gives the Democrats just over a 75% chance of winning control of the House in

So about the same as they gave Hillary.  ::)
For those who might take your post the wrong way, FiveThirtyEight only needed to be wrong about one seat to be wrong in HRC's case, but they would need to be wrong about multiple seats in order to be wrong in their forecast regarding control of the House.  Thus their current forecast is much more robust.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #169 on: August 17, 2018, 06:57:26 PM »
It is always nice to look on the bright side of life:

Title: "Worst-case scenario for House GOP is 70-seat wipeout"

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/402329-worst-case-scenario-for-house-gop-is-70-seat-wipeout

Extract: "… the worst-case scenario for the GOP is a truly historic wipeout of as many as 72 House seats, according to The Hill’s analysis of special election results and congressional and presidential returns from 2016."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #170 on: August 17, 2018, 11:10:38 PM »
The article speaks for itself:

Title: "Here Are 5 Reasons Why Republicans Should Be Worried About the 2018 Midterms"

https://www.alternet.org/news-amp-politics/here-are-5-reasons-why-republicans-should-be-worried-about-2018-midterms

Extract: " …five reasons why Republicans should be worried going into the November midterms: (1) the history of midterms, (2) the 2018 midterms will be a referendum on Donald Trump's presidency, (3) enthusiasm among Democrats, (4) the influence of female voters, and (5) a "shifting midterm coalition.""
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SteveMDFP

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #171 on: August 18, 2018, 12:30:40 AM »
FiveThirtyEight gives the Democrats just over a 75% chance of winning control of the House in

So about the same as they gave Hillary.  ::)

As I recall, 538.com projected Cheeto Mussolini to have a 20% chance or so of winning.  This proved far more prescient than other major pollsters or pundits.  Nate Silver is no slouch.

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #172 on: August 18, 2018, 05:49:00 PM »
The Democrats know that there is no value in talking about impeachment (as Mueller will take care of that); so instead they are talking about real things that matter to voters, like health care:

Title: "The 2018 midterms, explained by this Heidi Heitkamp ad"

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/8/17/17720552/2018-midterms-heidi-heitkamp-ad-health-care

Extract: "Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) faces one of 2018’s most difficult reelection campaigns. Donald Trump won her state of North Dakota by nearly 30 points in 2016. He still enjoys a positive approval rating there. The early polls show Heitkamp and her Republican opponent, Rep. Kevin Cramer, neck and neck in the November general election.

So as we round the corner and head into the fall, what is Heitkamp focusing on? Obamacare — and preexisting conditions, specifically."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #173 on: August 18, 2018, 07:12:24 PM »
The linked article/image indicates that given Trump's current Gallup approval rating of 39% the GOP should lose more than 60 House seats in the 2018 midterm elections:

Title: "The midterm elections could paralyze a key instrument of Trump's agenda for the US economy"

https://www.businessinsider.com/midterm-elections-may-cost-trump-key-policy-tool-rattner-charts-2018-8

Extract: "The red boxes on the chart below represent a midterm election, plotted by the president's approval rating and the number of House seats gained or lost. Based on Gallup's approval rating, at 39%, Rattner sees the GOP losing as many as 60 seats."
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mostly_lurking

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #174 on: August 19, 2018, 08:47:55 AM »
The linked article/image indicates that given Trump's current Gallup approval rating of 39% the GOP should lose more than 60 House seats in the 2018 midterm elections:

Title: "The midterm elections could paralyze a key instrument of Trump's agenda for the US economy"

https://www.businessinsider.com/midterm-elections-may-cost-trump-key-policy-tool-rattner-charts-2018-8

Extract: "The red boxes on the chart below represent a midterm election, plotted by the president's approval rating and the number of House seats gained or lost. Based on Gallup's approval rating, at 39%, Rattner sees the GOP losing as many as 60 seats."

1) Taking the outlier poll is disingenuous. Most of the polls ( and averages) are 42%-43%
2) There is correlation but also some way off.
3) NOTHING about the Trump presidency is standard- hard to take anything from previous times.

edit:  4) At another glance it seems that over 50% positive puts you in the safe zone and anything under is basically a toss up- anything can happen.

Funny thing is it seems being BETWEEN 45-50% is the worse case. All those under 45% (like Trump)  did ok  :)
« Last Edit: August 19, 2018, 09:17:34 AM by mostly_lurking »

mostly_lurking

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #175 on: August 19, 2018, 09:21:05 AM »
Just an hypothesis why the above happens.

Over 50% is easy.

45%-50%...hmm.... it's like a message :" Your OK but we expected better- take a small warning"

Under 45%.... maybe : "everything is shitty and nothing will ever change" ?

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #176 on: August 19, 2018, 06:43:10 PM »
Can't you find something really intelligent & unbiased that's backed up with credible research, data and analysis worth reading? I suspect you can't but that isn't your fault if it doesn't exist. :)

On average 85% of incumbents get reelected, thus the GOP midterm exodus illustrated in the attached image indicates that the GOP will likely be in trouble come November 2018:
« Last Edit: August 19, 2018, 07:53:44 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Lurk

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #177 on: August 19, 2018, 07:06:42 PM »
Thanks. 42 house republicans retiring not contesting in 2018.

So ok that means they won't be "incumbents" even though those seats are still currently held by the Rep. party. Sure longterm incumbents have personal advantages, and is why 85% on average are returned. But now another 10% have retired as well.

But would one need to look closely at each specific district to determine what the margin was last election? I doubt that all 42 or even most of those seats will be lost without specifics - not that I am that interested in looking myself. I am happy to wait and let it all unfold whatever the result. I have no skin in the game either way. I'd prefer non-aligned Independents to win every seat and throw all of the rest out to reconsider their futures. Not going to happen.   
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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #178 on: August 19, 2018, 08:44:28 PM »
It's certainly a wounderous graph, but seems disconnected from the subject at hand.
The GOP is retiring 21 more house members that the Dems. The largest number of retirements since 1992 when the Dems retired an equal number.
If both parties lose all of the seats in which their incumbent has retired in the coming election, the GOP will still remain in power.


The "out" party is expected to pick up seats during the mid-terms. If they don't it will be a huge disappointment. Not as disappointing as Hillary's loss or Bernie's ouster, but still a very serious loss.


538 has good numbers for Dems today, a 7.8% preference over the GOP. Pollsters cede 6.5% towards the GOP to account for the Gerrymandering in Republican controlled States, leaving a much smaller margin of victory. Trump's approvals lag by 8.4% among likely voters, a huge improvement from the 16.3% negatives he started the year with.


An interesting study might determine which of the up for grab seats are in states where state government was in Republican hands in 2010, the date of the most recent census. In those states I'd expect Gerrymandering to be in full force. This could make a large difference in the expected outcome.


I think the whole thing will be decided by who stays home on election day. sidd has mentioned that his Deplorable neighbors may sit this one out. If this is true, and if it repeats itself across the country it could be a very good night for the Democratic faithful.


If the house does swing Blue, they've a lot of work to do in the 2 years leading up to the next presidential race. They'll need to show Buba that electing Democrats has made life better.
Terry

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #179 on: August 19, 2018, 08:51:38 PM »
"sidd has mentioned that his Deplorable neighbors may sit this one out."

More precisely, i satd i did not know if they would show up this year. But my very next sentence was that I hadn't expected them to show in 2016...

so i make no predictions.

sidd

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #180 on: August 19, 2018, 09:05:17 PM »
Sorry
My bad, I'd misremembered your post.
No intention to misrepresent your message.
Terry

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #181 on: August 20, 2018, 02:42:31 AM »
Thanks. 42 house republicans retiring not contesting in 2018.

So ok that means they won't be "incumbents" even though those seats are still currently held by the Rep. party. Sure longterm incumbents have personal advantages, and is why 85% on average are returned. But now another 10% have retired as well.

But would one need to look closely at each specific district to determine what the margin was last election? I doubt that all 42 or even most of those seats will be lost without specifics - not that I am that interested in looking myself. I am happy to wait and let it all unfold whatever the result. I have no skin in the game either way. I'd prefer non-aligned Independents to win every seat and throw all of the rest out to reconsider their futures. Not going to happen.

The linked article provides more analysis of the trends behind the graph, all of which spell trouble for the GOP come November 2018:

Title: "A blue wave is obscuring a red exodus"

https://www.axios.com/2018-midterm-elections-house-republicans-retiring-dave-wasserman-1c985d97-2f73-4ef0-9d5e-7e7dd23c92cf.html

Extract: "The bottom line: "Yes, it's about how upset suburban professional women are, with regard to family separations at the border and Trump's temperament and behavior. But it's also about who's not voting. And that's primarily men without college degrees who are Trump true believers."

- "They believed in Trump fervently, but they've never liked congressional Republicans at all. In fact, Trump gained ground by running against them in 2016. So why are they going to turn out this year for congressional Republicans?""
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #182 on: August 20, 2018, 03:25:03 AM »
Yet another indication that Democrats will likely control the House after the midterms:

Title: "Poll: Democrats in stronger position to take the House"

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/poll-democrats-in-stronger-position-to-take-the-house/ar-BBM7EXa?ocid=spartandhp

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Lurk

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #183 on: August 21, 2018, 06:53:12 AM »
Atlantic Council imagines how Russia 'probably' will influence US politics

Russia is “likely” using a “three-pronged” strategy to influence US politics, according to bombshell speculation by the Atlantic Council. RT interviewing newsworthy people is even cited as evidence of this dangerous plot.

Brandon Straka – the disillusioned Democrat who started the viral #WalkAway hashtag – did in fact grant RT an interview. But he also appeared on Fox News, and his internet campaign was covered by The Washington Post and The Daily Beast. Which begs the question: Is the Daily Beast – owned by InterActiveCorp, where Chelsea Clinton currently serves as a board member – also actively working to undermine the Democratic Party?

“It’s weak logic. It doesn’t stand up to any sort of scrutiny. It’s very dangerous – the idea that a journalistic outlet could be accused of some sort of negative behavior just for interviewing somebody,” Derrick Broze, independent journalist who writes for Mint Press News

“When you look into the Atlantic Council and you understand who they’re connected to, who they partner with, and where they take money from and who they give money to, then you can understand why these individuals would be out there pushing the message that they are, and you can understand what their true purpose is. It’s about attacking independent media, independent thought, and taking control of the narratives,” Broze concluded during his – wait for it – interview with RT.

with vids
https://www.rt.com/usa/436421-atlantic-russia-us-election-meddling/
My last PM to Neven: "Hey it won't be difficult to walk away. And it won't be my loss either."
Neven can fight his own fights. Win his own arguments. Stand up for his own values & political views. Post his own research. I won't be his Proxy anymore to debate those he wants me to because he will not.

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #184 on: August 21, 2018, 06:50:44 PM »
The Democrats seem to have a fresh crop of energized candidates that are giving once secure GOP candidates a run for their money:

Title: "Once-safe GOP seats threatened by blue wave"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/21/republicans-congress-blue-wave-safe-seats-790101

Extract: "Republicans who for years have represented some of the safest congressional seats in their party are suddenly under intense pressure in 2018, with Democratic challengers threatening to overwhelm them in suburban districts where President Donald Trump has struggled.

One of those districts belongs to Rep. Steve Chabot, an 11-term Republican who has gone years without a serious challenge in the southwestern corner of Ohio. He has been outraised — and, some Republicans say, outworked — by Democrat Aftab Pureval, the 35-year-old clerk of courts in Cincinnati-centered Hamilton County, who argues that the congressman has lost touch with a diversifying, suburbanizing district changing beneath his feet."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #185 on: August 21, 2018, 07:00:22 PM »
There are ways to fight voter suppression, and the Democrats are activating them for the coming midterm elections:

Title: "Democrats gear up for legal fights over voter suppression"

http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/402761-democrats-gear-up-for-legal-fights-over-voter-suppression

Extract: "Democrats are getting ready for a major fight this fall over access to the polls, which the party believes could be a critical issue toward determining congressional majorities in the midterm elections."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

mostly_lurking

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #186 on: August 22, 2018, 08:14:05 AM »
There are ways to fight voter suppression, and the Democrats are activating them for the coming midterm elections:

Title: "Democrats gear up for legal fights over voter suppression"

http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/402761-democrats-gear-up-for-legal-fights-over-voter-suppression

Extract: "Democrats are getting ready for a major fight this fall over access to the polls, which the party believes could be a critical issue toward determining congressional majorities in the midterm elections."

So I guess fighting against voter ID- like every 3rd world country even has.

TerryM

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #187 on: August 22, 2018, 09:08:59 AM »
According to a Gallop Poll from Monday:


45% of Democrats, 55% of Independents, and 74% of Republicans want to "continue to improve relationships with Russia" while 51% of Democrats think we should take "strong steps against Russia", those outside the party disagree.


https://news.gallup.com/poll/241124/favor-diplomacy-sanctions-russia.aspx


Russia-Gate seems to be playing to mixed reviews within the Democratic echo chamber, but after 579 days of repetition in the hinterlands it's not winning any awards.


I wonder how many minorities, who have seen American Justice up close and personal, will share my feelings of disgust and revulsion over Mueller's tactics.
They may never cast a vote for a Republican, but they may quietly mutter "A pox on both houses"  with a Spanish accent, or in Ebonics, and decide to go fishing on November 6.


Terry

Lurk

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #188 on: August 22, 2018, 09:10:51 AM »
"A pox on both houses"

I said exactly that here yesterday and I'm no minority or an ex-felon - or was it today. :)
My last PM to Neven: "Hey it won't be difficult to walk away. And it won't be my loss either."
Neven can fight his own fights. Win his own arguments. Stand up for his own values & political views. Post his own research. I won't be his Proxy anymore to debate those he wants me to because he will not.

mostly_lurking

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #189 on: August 22, 2018, 09:12:19 AM »
Maybe in Australia voter fraud has less effect

1) Compulsory voting ( its in the 90's % turnout )
2) You have to be on the list to vote.
3) Much less illegal immigrants.


TerryM

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #190 on: August 22, 2018, 09:24:43 AM »
"A pox on both houses"

I said exactly that here yesterday and I'm no minority or an ex-felon - or was it today. :)
There are no ex-felons. It's like being an ex-amputee. As a non-practicing felon I'm very aware of these distinctions. 8)


Pox can spread like a 2018 California Wildfire. Hope we don't get burned by the politicians - again.
Terry

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #191 on: August 22, 2018, 10:19:42 AM »

3) What's the level of illegal immigration got do with voter fraud?


The right keeps saying that there is very big illegal voting by the "undocumented" and that is why they are pushing for voter ID. (of course because they believe most would vote dem)

Lurk

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #192 on: August 22, 2018, 10:31:20 AM »

3) What's the level of illegal immigration got do with voter fraud?


The right keeps saying that there is very big illegal voting by the "undocumented" and that is why they are pushing for voter ID. (of course because they believe most would vote dem)

Wow, thanks for the info. Begs the question how do they get Registered in the first place if they don't really "exist" as citizens with Birth certificates or citizenship papers or some kid of record. These things do do my head in. :)
My last PM to Neven: "Hey it won't be difficult to walk away. And it won't be my loss either."
Neven can fight his own fights. Win his own arguments. Stand up for his own values & political views. Post his own research. I won't be his Proxy anymore to debate those he wants me to because he will not.

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #193 on: August 22, 2018, 02:40:18 PM »
If the Republican’s up for re-election keep getting arrested .... the Democrat’s won’t need Traitor Don’s help in taking back the House.  The two most recent Congressmen to bite the legal dust, were the first two Congressmen to support Trump.  This shouldn’t come as a shock to anyone as indictments continue to flow over the coming months.
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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #194 on: August 22, 2018, 03:23:48 PM »
There are ways to fight voter suppression, and the Democrats are activating them for the coming
Extract: "Democrats are getting ready for a major fight this fall over access to the polls, which the party believes could be a critical issue toward determining congressional majorities in the midterm elections."

So I guess fighting against voter ID- like every 3rd world country even has.

Voter ID laws are just voter suppression.  They'd only ever prevent in-person voting fraud, which is a vanishingly rare phenomenon.

Non-citizens don't vote -- doing so would be an express ticket to deportation.   Who would risk that?

Meanwhile, millions of Americans are walking around with missing or expired drivers licenses.  They tend to be poor, urban, non-drivers, the elderly, the disabled.

Good democracy depends on encouraging voting, not making it inaccessible.

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #195 on: August 24, 2018, 02:33:01 PM »
Sabatos Crystal Ball ..... one of two or three well respected political forecasting sites ... made 12 changes to their forecast this week:  2 in favor of Republicans and 10 in favor of Democrats.

I’m sure it is just a one time blip .... just like the other blips that have happened over the past 18 months .... and will reverse itself as we get more and more incriminating information on Trump and the middle class figures out that they got almost nothing in tax cuts ... while the wealthiest 1% got 85% of the benefit.  I’m sure that will help Republican Congressmen a lot.😂

« Last Edit: August 26, 2018, 04:28:41 PM by Buddy »
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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #196 on: August 24, 2018, 11:57:40 PM »
If Trump refuses to sign the $857 billion spending bill that the Senate passed on Thursday, and forces a government shutdown after September 30, 2018; then it is possible that angry voters could have control of both the House and the Senate to the Democrats:

Title: "The Senate is desperate to avoid another government shutdown — but Trump isn’t"

https://www.vox.com/2018/8/24/17778020/senate-border-wall-spending-bill-mitch-mcconnell-donald-trump

Extract: "For the past five months, the House and Senate have been sprinting to pass all 12 of their annual spending bills before the September deadline.

Republicans know government shutdowns are very unpopular. And Trump’s immigration agenda doesn’t fare well among voters overall. More than half of Americans — 58 percent — disapprove of how Trump has handled immigration matters, according to an early July Quinnipiac poll. A Reuters poll similarly found that 52 percent of Americans disapproved of Trump’s immigration agenda. Republicans are much more likely to approve of Trump’s immigration agenda, but a government shutdown over immigration policy could be disastrous for vulnerable Republican candidates.

But even in a year when Democrats are trying to harness their base’s enthusiasm to knock Republicans out of power in Congress, Trump hasn’t heeded his party’s political concerns. The coming weeks will be a test of whether he really has an appetite for a second shutdown — even if it has the potential to hurt his party’s electoral chances."
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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #197 on: August 25, 2018, 01:48:11 AM »
It's been 24 years since the Democrats under Clinton faced their President's first mid term election. Bill and Donald had similar levels of disapproval by 8/24 and the Democrats suffered a terrible loss in November.


The Dems gained 54 seats in the house and picked up 8 Senate seats. If this election follows this path, by 2019 the Dems would have:


193+54 or 247 in the House of Representatives
&
47+8 or 55 in the Senate - as well as 2 independents that vote with them.


The 247 seats would give the Democrats 10 more seat than the Republicans have.  Interestingly under this scenario the Dems would control 57% of the votes in both houses. A solid majority, but no where near the super-majority needed to override a veto, or to win an impeachment conviction. 8 more votes equals a super majority, 8 fewer, the loss of their majority.


While winning 54 congressional seat might be possible, the path to winning 8 additional Senate seats when only 9 of the seats being decided presently are in Republican hands is almost an impossibility.
Even if lightning struck and the Democrats won ever single senate race, they still wouldn't have the votes to win an impeachment victory. 58% may sound more impressive than 57%, but it falls well short of the needed 2/3ds.


The only way Trump leaves office before 2021 is in a box.
Terry

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #198 on: August 25, 2018, 02:07:53 AM »
...Voter ID laws are just voter suppression.
  B-b-bbutt, how r rich male white re-pubic-lick-uns goin' ta keep thar pow'r, if'n fair votin' is enacted. Hey, re-pubic-lick-un gerrymanderers got all dar efferts invested in all those weird twisted districts, too.

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #199 on: August 25, 2018, 02:09:17 AM »
Don't worry, Terry. The Repugs are getting indited at such a rapid rate, that there may be very few of them left not in jail by the time of the election!  ;D ;D ;D ;D
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