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Author Topic: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election  (Read 39940 times)

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #200 on: August 31, 2018, 05:24:26 PM »
The official GOP House committee (as opposed to dark money organizations) has a limited supply of money and will need to decide which GOP House candidates to cut donations to:

Title: "‘Tough decisions have to be made’: House Republicans prepare for pain"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/31/republicans-midterms-congress-vulnerable-lawmakers-gop-805496

Extract: "Party officials begin deciding which GOP lawmakers to save and which ones to cut loose."
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Buddy

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #201 on: September 01, 2018, 12:14:33 PM »
By October, Trump will have to cancel on Ted Cruz .... because by October Ted won’t want him in Texas.  Donnie’s poll numbers will be further in the toilet.  Maybe Trump will have to cancel because of his bone spurs.

Trump is deeply into the “laughing stock” phase.  Now his every move is being made fun of.  When is Trump visiting Russia?  I hear that housing is very affordable.... and maybe he can get one of Vladi’s oligarchs to give him a house to live in. 
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #202 on: September 01, 2018, 03:16:05 PM »
By October, Trump will have to cancel on Ted Cruz .... because by October Ted won’t want him in Texas.  Donnie’s poll numbers will be further in the toilet.  Maybe Trump will have to cancel because of his bone spurs.

Trump is deeply into the “laughing stock” phase.  Now his every move is being made fun of.  When is Trump visiting Russia?  I hear that housing is very affordable.... and maybe he can get one of Vladi’s oligarchs to give him a house to live in.

Whether or not Trump makes it to Texas to stump for Cruz; hopefully, he will help drag Cruz underwater by November:

Title: "Trump says he will go to deeply Republican Texas to campaign for Sen. Ted Cruz, as Democrat Beto O'Rourke surges in the polls"

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/31/trump-going-to-texas-to-campaign-for-ted-cruz-as-beto-orourke-surges.html

Extract: "The same August Marist poll that showed O'Rourke closing in on Cruz also revealed that the president's approval ratings among adults in the Lone Star State are underwater. Only 43 percent of the nearly 1,000 respondents in the weighted survey said they approved of the job Trump is doing as president. Forty-six percent, meanwhile, said they disapproved, and 11 percent said they were unsure.

For Cruz, the idea that his fellow Republican, the president, could actually harm his re-election prospects in Texas would be an especially bitter pill for the senator, who lost the 2016 Republican presidential primary to Trump."
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Buddy

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #203 on: September 03, 2018, 07:33:06 PM »
Here's some excerpts from an article in the "Cook Political Report."

https://www.cookpolitical.com/index.php/analysis/national/national-politics/dark-days-ahead-trump-and-gop

Dark Days Ahead for Trump and the GOP

Charles E. Cook, Jr.
August 28, 2018

Quote
This week’s developments—the guilty verdict of Paul Manafort, President Trump’s former campaign head found guilty on tax and bank-fraud charges, and the guilty plea by Michael Cohen, Trump’s longtime personal lawyer, for campaign-finance-law violations which he says were directed by Trump—have to leave Republicans unnerved. And then there was Wednesday’s release of a Fox News poll showing Republicans trailing on the generic congressional-ballot test by 11 points, making the situation for Republicans hoping to retain the House majority look even worse than before.

The Fox News poll of 1,009 registered voters conducted Aug. 19-21, mostly before the plea deal and guilty verdict were made public, showed Democrats with 49 percent of the vote, to 38 percent for Republicans. This was up from a Democratic lead of 8 points in the July Fox poll, and 9 points in June. When the new poll’s sample was narrowed to likely voters—those saying they were “extremely interested” in the election—the Democratic lead exploded to 18 points, 56 to 38 percent. The RealClearPolitics average shows Democrats up by 7.1 points. Even with the advantages for Republicans in district boundaries and natural-population patterns, this makes a House turnover quite likely.

Now ..... to be fair, FOX is just one of those "far left leaning polls"  ;) that probably go out and find people who will lie for them.  But it is just one more yard stick (or meter stick for the Europeans  ;)) that we can use to measure where we are right now.

I'm sure that when Paul Manafort gets off "Scot free" in his second trial ..... and Donnie Jr. is arrested ..... and Julian Assange is tried ...... and Donnie is found to have used his inaugural bank account like a personal bank account ....... that things will get much better for Traitor Donald.  ;)
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #204 on: September 04, 2018, 02:52:42 AM »
Trump seems to think that following the rule of law will hurt the GOP in the midterms:

Title: "Trump slams "Sessions Justice Department" for indicting GOP congressmen"

https://www.axios.com/trump-sessions-justice-department-indicting-gop-congressmen-61a28c98-87b3-4b2c-8808-f6563a69d912.html

Extract: "President Trump hit Attorney General Jeff Sessions and the Justice Department Monday over the indictments of Republican congressmen Duncan Hunter (R-Calif.) and Chris Collins (R-N.Y.), that Trump argues put "[t]wo easy wins now in doubt" ahead of the midterms."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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TerryM

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #205 on: September 04, 2018, 04:24:02 AM »
Trump seems to think that following the rule of law will hurt the GOP in the midterms:

Title: "Trump slams "Sessions Justice Department" for indicting GOP congressmen"

https://www.axios.com/trump-sessions-justice-department-indicting-gop-congressmen-61a28c98-87b3-4b2c-8808-f6563a69d912.html

Extract: "President Trump hit Attorney General Jeff Sessions and the Justice Department Monday over the indictments of Republican congressmen Duncan Hunter (R-Calif.) and Chris Collins (R-N.Y.), that Trump argues put "[t]wo easy wins now in doubt" ahead of the midterms."
My kid brother went to school with his father, Duncan. Duncan was an obnoxious little shit, I'm sure his son carried on the family tradition.


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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #206 on: September 04, 2018, 05:23:22 AM »
Trump is TRYING to use the Department of Justice and the FBI for his own political agenda.  Trump continues to act like an autocrat from a South American country.  Trump continues to spin out of control as the walls close in and his voter base shows signs of sealing over the past 8 weeks or so.

Real Clear Politics now shows the Democrat’s with about a 10 seat advantage in the race for the US House.  There is a large chunk of about 43 seats in the “tossup” category ... so anything could happen ... but the rising tide continues to be BLUE for now.

FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Klondike Kat

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #207 on: September 04, 2018, 04:37:02 PM »
By October, Trump will have to cancel on Ted Cruz .... because by October Ted won’t want him in Texas.  Donnie’s poll numbers will be further in the toilet.  Maybe Trump will have to cancel because of his bone spurs.

Trump is deeply into the “laughing stock” phase.  Now his every move is being made fun of.  When is Trump visiting Russia?  I hear that housing is very affordable.... and maybe he can get one of Vladi’s oligarchs to give him a house to live in.

Quite possible.  However, those candidates that Trump has supported in the recent primaries have done particularly well.  Perhaps there is a disconnect between Trump polls and other candidate polls.  Trump's poll numbers have been stuck in the 53% / 43% disapproval range for the past several months.  This is actually an improvement over his favorability rating just before the election - Gallup had him at 61% / 36% unfavorable.  Hard to say how this will play out over the next two months. 

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #208 on: September 04, 2018, 04:59:35 PM »
The coming blue wave appears to be gaining momentum:

Title: "Poll: Congressional Democrats up 14 points over GOP on generic ballot"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/04/democratic-congressional-candidates-lead-poll-806305

Extract: "A new poll out on Monday shows Democratic congressional candidates with a clear advantage over Republicans just two months out from election day.

In the Washington Post-ABC News poll, registered voters said they favored a generic Democratic candidate over a Republican one by a margin of 52 to 38 percent. The same poll showed Democrats with just a 4 percentage point advantage in April, and with a 12 point advantage in January."
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mostly_lurking

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #209 on: September 04, 2018, 05:16:57 PM »
The coming blue wave appears to be gaining momentum:

Title: "Poll: Congressional Democrats up 14 points over GOP on generic ballot"


Just take into account that wapo polls are way off- I would look at the average- 9.5% on RCP

Just like in the general election ,the "popular vote" , and these polls are somewhat like that- is not as important as each local race. Only poll that counts is at the ballot box. Let's wait and see.

Klondike Kat

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #210 on: September 04, 2018, 07:57:51 PM »
The coming blue wave appears to be gaining momentum:

Title: "Poll: Congressional Democrats up 14 points over GOP on generic ballot"


Just take into account that wapo polls are way off- I would look at the average- 9.5% on RCP

Just like in the general election ,the "popular vote" , and these polls are somewhat like that- is not as important as each local race. Only poll that counts is at the ballot box. Let's wait and see.

Yes, all the polls had Clinton winning in 2016 also.  Looking at the individual races, it seems unlikely that the Dems will win the Senate this year, and they may even lose seats.  The Dems will definitely gain seats in the House, but whether they can mount a big enough wave to overcome the Reps advantage remains to be seen.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #211 on: September 04, 2018, 09:14:07 PM »
Quote
Only poll that counts is at the ballot box. Let's wait and see.

In Florida (after the 2000 election), we say the only count that matters is the one conducted by your brother.  With all the hackable paperless voting machines out there (I think Ohio in particular), all that matters is the last hacker.

With all the hackable voter lists, I recommend all voters obtain a 'new' voter registration card between now and November, at least to show you were registered recently, when they attempt to turn you away from the polling place.  Call in to your county Supervisor of Elections office or utilize their website (in at least 30 states) to 'update' your registration, even if nothing is changing.  (I just did this in Florida.)
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #212 on: September 04, 2018, 11:34:51 PM »
Only poll that counts is at the ballot box. Let's wait and see.

Of course it is possible that the poll is underestimating the size of the blue wave in the House on election day.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #213 on: September 05, 2018, 05:11:53 PM »
The potential blue wave is looking taller and taller:

Title: "POLITICO race ratings: 60 GOP House seats in danger"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/05/midterm-race-ratings-2018-806452

Extract: "Roughly 100 of the 240 Republican-controlled House seats are currently within Democratic reach, posing the most serious threat to the GOP majority since the party won control in 2010."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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mostly_lurking

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #214 on: September 05, 2018, 05:59:56 PM »
Only poll that counts is at the ballot box. Let's wait and see.

Of course it is possible that the poll is underestimating the size of the blue wave in the House on election day.
Possible.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

Still 20% chance the dems don't win the house. Not too bad for GOP considering everything :)


edit: just saw you can choose 2 other poll options- lite and deluxe- and both give higher chance for the GOP- 27% and 35%.

« Last Edit: September 05, 2018, 06:13:04 PM by mostly_lurking »

Klondike Kat

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #215 on: September 05, 2018, 06:32:04 PM »
Only poll that counts is at the ballot box. Let's wait and see.

Of course it is possible that the poll is underestimating the size of the blue wave in the House on election day.
Possible.

270towin has the Dems ahead 202-199 with 34 races classified as toss ups.  Only one of those is currently a blue seat.  Could go either way.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

Still 20% chance the dems don't win the house. Not too bad for GOP considering everything :)


edit: just saw you can choose 2 other poll options- lite and deluxe- and both give higher chance for the GOP- 27% and 35%.

litesong

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #216 on: September 05, 2018, 07:03:37 PM »
Sixty percent of those polled in a new survey disapprove of President Donald Trump's job performance.....
If a few more sexist, racist xenophobes had been interviewed, the percentage would have lowered, despite sexist, racist xenophobes SAYING they hate communists..... while "don'T rump" gives america away to putin.
 

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #217 on: September 05, 2018, 07:28:34 PM »
I hear republicans support this dolt who wants to abolish 1st amendment and dictatorize (if that's a word) the Greeat Trumpistan Country (GTC).
« Last Edit: September 05, 2018, 07:38:17 PM by Pmt111500 »
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Klondike Kat

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #218 on: September 06, 2018, 02:46:08 PM »
Only poll that counts is at the ballot box. Let's wait and see.

Of course it is possible that the poll is underestimating the size of the blue wave in the House on election day.

Considering that the last 5 polls have the Dem generic Congressional advantage at +14, +4, +9, +2, and +5, anything is possible (highlighting the highest Democratic advantage in the polls seems like wishful thinking).  Averaging the last five, gives the Dems a +7 advantage.  Most pundits feel this is not enough to take back the House, although it is close, feeling that +8 to +9 range is needed.  The task is not unattainable, as the Dems did win 32 House seats during Bush's second term in 2006.  However, Bush's approval rating was on the decline, and lower than Trump's rating today (not to mention that the economy was already starting it slide into the recession).  One caveat that stands out among the recent polls, is that those that poll likely voters, as opposed to registered voters, have a much lower Dem advantage (the +4 and +2 polls were both likely voters).  Of course we saw i the last election that an advantage fueled by a  large advantage in fewer districts does not overcome a smaller advantage in many districts.

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #219 on: September 07, 2018, 01:22:52 AM »
More blue water .....  Cook Political Report moves Virginia 2nd congressional district from “lean Republican” to “tossup.”  They also move Iowa 1st district from “tossup” to “lean Democrat.”

No other seats moved in the last week.  The longer the Republicans stay with Donnie, the higher the blue wave will grow.  Simple as that.

Keep tweeting Donnie.  PLEASE keep tweeting ....😂
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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #220 on: September 07, 2018, 12:50:23 PM »
Some senate races that I thought, for sure ..... would be won by the Republican candidate, are remaining very close and are in the tossup column still.  Indiana is leaning to the Democrat to my astonishment, Florida is a dead heat, and Tennessee is a tossup or leaning to the Democrat.  And in Texas, Ted Cruz is in a MUCH closer race than anyone expected.  I’m not holding my breath ... I still think Texas is Ted Cruz’s seat to lose .... but I’ll buy the “first round” if Beto wins in Texas. 🍺 🙈
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Klondike Kat

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #221 on: September 07, 2018, 01:30:03 PM »
Some senate races that I thought, for sure ..... would be won by the Republican candidate, are remaining very close and are in the tossup column still.  Indiana is leaning to the Democrat to my astonishment, Florida is a dead heat, and Tennessee is a tossup or leaning to the Democrat.  And in Texas, Ted Cruz is in a MUCH closer race than anyone expected.  I’m not holding my breath ... I still think Texas is Ted Cruz’s seat to lose .... but I’ll buy the “first round” if Beto wins in Texas. 🍺 🙈

I do not find them very surprising.  In Indiana, Donnelly bucked the trend in 2012, winning by 6%, when the state backed Romney by 10%.  I expect to see Pence campaigning heavily here, and this race to go down to the wire.  Florida should be similar.  A popular governor is running against a popular Senator.  The only thing certain in this race is that it will be the most expensive Senate race ever.  Tennessee is similar with a popular governor running against a popular Congresswoman.  This is one of the few states where Trump has an overall positive rating, and may come down to turnout.  I would not be surprised to see both governors win these seats. 

One race that may be slipping away from the Democrats is Arizona.  This has less to do with the candidates running, and more to do with a previous Senator.  Not Flake, but McCain.  Bipartisan support more McCain may tilt this race to the Republicans.  One popular Senator that may lose her seat is Heitkamp.  The Republicans are targeting this seat, even though she is likely the most conservative Democrat in Washington.  She won by 1% in a Democratic election year in a state that voted for Trump by 35%.  When all is said and done, I expect Cruz to cruise to victory.  OK, that was a bad pun, but I do not expect this to be close on election day.  Texas is just too much of a red state to allow Beto to win.  If the Republicans win those states, they will maintain their advantage, regardless of the outcomes in the other close races.

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #222 on: September 08, 2018, 04:28:52 PM »
Based on Kavanaugh' confirmation hearings, there is more than enough evidence of perjury for the Senate Judiciary Committee to request the DOJ to open an investigation of Kavanaugh's record.  If the GOP chair (Grassley) won't approve such a referral, the Democrats should make this a midterm speaking point:

Title: "Liberal groups urge Dems to seek perjury probe of Kavanaugh"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/07/perjury-kavanaugh-liberal-groups-811254

Extract: "Three prominent liberal groups pushing to defeat Brett Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court nomination on Friday urged Democrats to seek a formal perjury investigation of him based on his testimony before the Senate Judiciary Committee this week.

Demand Justice, MoveOn, and NARAL Pro-Choice America outlined their case in a letter sent as Kavanaugh’s marathon four-day hearing came to a close, with the Republican Senate still expected to confirm him by month’s end.

The office of the top Democrat on Judiciary, California Sen. Dianne Feinstein, did not immediately return a request for comment on the request by the three liberal groups, which asked the party’s senators “to immediately refer this matter to the Department of Justice for criminal investigation and potential criminal charges.”"


See also:

Title: "Brett Kavanaugh’s perjury avalanche — 50 years in the making"

https://www.salon.com/2018/09/08/brett-kavanaughs-perjury-avalanche-50-years-in-the-making/

Extract: "There’s been a flood of disturbing, formerly secret emails surfacing to and from Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, …"
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #223 on: September 08, 2018, 05:13:24 PM »
If the Democrats win control of the House after the midterms, they have plenty of evidence to open impeachment hearing on Kavanaugh, in early 2019:

Title: "I Wrote Some of the Stolen Memos That Brett Kavanaugh Lied to the Senate About"

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/09/judge-brett-kavanaugh-should-be-impeached-for-lying-during-his-confirmation-hearings.html?wpsrc=sh_all_dt_tw_ru

Extract: " Newly released emails show that while he was working to move through President George W. Bush’s judicial nominees in the early 2000s, Kavanaugh received confidential memos, letters, and talking points of Democratic staffers stolen by GOP Senate aide Manuel Miranda. That includes research and talking points Miranda stole from the Senate server after I had written them for the Senate Judiciary Committee as the chief counsel for nominations for the minority.

Receiving those memos and letters alone is not an impeachable offense.

No, Kavanaugh should be removed because he was repeatedly asked under oath as part of his 2004 and 2006 confirmation hearings for his position on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit about whether he had received such information from Miranda, and each time he falsely denied it."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #224 on: September 10, 2018, 02:48:57 PM »
Obama's Illinois speech is a great lecture on the state of the union, plus an even greater campaign speech. There should be more of this.



Alas I think he's arguing way too rational to reach the wingnuts. Just like Angela Merkel in Germany... In that sense he is indeed divisive, as a Faux News bullshitter said: “Barack Obama was one of the most divisive presidents in American history.”
http://insider.foxnews.com/2018/09/08/barack-obama-rips-trump-gop-speech-dan-bongino-reacts-fox-friends

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #225 on: September 11, 2018, 01:45:14 AM »
Lesson for Trump: 'You can fool all of the people some of the time, and some of the people all of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all of the time.'

Title: "2 new polls give Trump and Republicans nightmare signs for the midterms"

https://www.businessinsider.com/polls-trump-approval-rating-midterm-elections-2018-9

Extract: "President Donald Trump is rapidly losing favor among independent voters and has a low approval rating in general despite a strong economy, two new polls show, providing fresh warning signals for the president and the Republican Party ahead of the midterm elections."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

litesong

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #226 on: September 11, 2018, 02:31:22 AM »
Extract: "President Donald Trump is rapidly losing favor among independent voters and has a low approval rating in general despite a strong economy......
It has been said that a strong economy outweighs other factors in elections. We'll find out if the sexist, racist xenophobe "don'T rump", who commits treason & gives the U.S. to putin, can sink the "Goodship Lollypop Economy".

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #227 on: September 11, 2018, 08:04:59 AM »
"You can fool all of the people some of the time, and some of the people all of the time, and that's usually enough."

sidd

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #228 on: September 11, 2018, 12:07:56 PM »
Donnie’s poll numbers are really heading for the gutter.  There are now a handful of polls showing him in the mid-to-high 30’s.  Independents are leaving him in droves.  I hope Donnie makes THREE trips to Texas for Lying Ted.  Please Donnie ..... go to Texas.
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Klondike Kat

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #229 on: September 11, 2018, 03:13:32 PM »
Donnie’s poll numbers are really heading for the gutter.  There are now a handful of polls showing him in the mid-to-high 30’s.  Independents are leaving him in droves.  I hope Donnie makes THREE trips to Texas for Lying Ted.  Please Donnie ..... go to Texas.

The RCP poll average over the last 10 days has Trump at a 53% unfavorable, 41% favorable rating.  That support is similar to Obama in 2014 (-12%), Bush in 2006 (-13%), and majority party lost an average of 22.5 seats during those elections.  The Democrats need only do marginally better than that average to regain House control.  In 2010, Obama's numbers were slightly better (-8%), but the Dems lost 46 seats.  Now much of that was a pendulum swing back from the Dems gain over the past two elections.  All pundits rate this as roughly a 50:50 scenario, and anything could swing the outcome one way or the other.

 https://news.gallup.com/poll/178043/obama-factor-2014-vote-similar-2010.aspx

Buddy

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #230 on: September 11, 2018, 04:30:18 PM »
One of the Russian Lurkers didn't believe me several weeks ago when I said that Donnie's approval numbers were heading for the toilet.  As Verizon says...... "can you hear me now?"

Again ..... Republican Congressmen have a choice:  Throw him overboard as fast as you can ..... OR ..... continue to suffer at the polls.

This year ...... it is about the House.  Next year and the following year, it will be about the Senate.  Most of Donnie's supporters in Congress are going to be continually painted with the Donald Trump paint brush.

Do they dump him now ..... OR ..... do they wait for Congress to dump him?  Their choice .....

More and more BAD THINGS are going to be coming out regarding Trump in the coming weeks and months.  They AREN'T going to get better.  They are going to get WORSE./b]

It ISN'T the chart that says Donnie's numbers will get worse ...... IT'S THE UNDERLYING FUNDAMENTALS THAT CAUSE THE CHART.

1)  Manafort trial number 2 or Manafort cooperates
2)  Money laundering
3)  Obstruction of justice
4)  Conspiracy
5)  That nasty "T word" will likely come back into the discussion
6)  Trump just continues to blabber and lie ..... and more American's are figuring that out





« Last Edit: September 11, 2018, 05:28:26 PM by Buddy »
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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #231 on: September 11, 2018, 04:41:28 PM »
"You can fool all of the people some of the time, and some of the people all of the time, and that's usually enough."

sidd
The NYT has counted well over 4,000 lies told by Trump to the US public since he took office, an average of 8 lies per day in office.  The consequence of these lies may well deliver the US Senate into the hands of the Democratic leadership after the midterms:

Title: "Eight weeks out: Dems see narrow path to Senate majority"

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/405980-eight-weeks-out-dems-see-narrow-path-to-senate-majority

Extract: "Eight weeks out from the midterm elections, both Republicans and Democrats find themselves with a path to a Senate majority.
 
For Democrats, it is a surprising development given this year’s difficult political map: The party is defending nearly two-dozen seats, including 10 seats in states won by President Trump in 2016.
 
Yet if the party can sweep every race considered a toss-up, it would end up with a 52-48 majority in the next Congress — even while losing Texas, where Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-Texas) is giving GOP Sen. Ted Cruz a stronger-than-expected challenge."
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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #232 on: September 11, 2018, 06:20:46 PM »
One of the Russian Lurkers didn't believe me several weeks ago when I said that Donnie's approval numbers were heading for the toilet.  As Verizon says...... "can you hear me now?"

Again ..... Republican Congressmen have a choice:  Throw him overboard as fast as you can ..... OR ..... continue to suffer at the polls.

This year ...... it is about the House.  Next year and the following year, it will be about the Senate.  Most of Donnie's supporters in Congress are going to be continually painted with the Donald Trump paint brush.

Do they dump him now ..... OR ..... do they wait for Congress to dump him?  Their choice .....

More and more BAD THINGS are going to be coming out regarding Trump in the coming weeks and months.  They AREN'T going to get better.  They are going to get WORSE./b]

It ISN'T the chart that says Donnie's numbers will get worse ...... IT'S THE UNDERLYING FUNDAMENTALS THAT CAUSE THE CHART.

1)  Manafort trial number 2 or Manafort cooperates
2)  Money laundering
3)  Obstruction of justice
4)  Conspiracy
5)  That nasty "T word" will likely come back into the discussion
6)  Trump just continues to blabber and lie ..... and more American's are figuring that out

Are you seriously using a one-month variation to counter a 10-month trend?  That is worse than those using short-term temperature data to counter long-term trends.  While it is certainly possible that it could continue, it is equally possible that it could reverse.  Nothing much has really changed during the entire time frame.

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #233 on: September 12, 2018, 12:12:17 AM »

The NYT has counted well over 4,000 lies told by Trump to the US public since he took office, an average of 8 lies per day in office.


Do you think that the NYT, or perhaps yourself, should check the veracity of your own statements prior to publishing? Particularly since the piece is intended to draw attention to the Trump's own litany of misstatements.


How many days has Trump been in office according to the above figures?
Should this be counted as a fib, an exaggeration, or as a lapsus linguae


Certainly it's not a lie, or the whole point of your post would be lost.
Terry

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #234 on: September 12, 2018, 03:03:58 AM »
The GOP can read the writing on the wall:

Title: "Trump's sagging approval ratings have GOP staring at worst-case scenarios for midterm elections"

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/11/trumps-sagging-approval-ratings-have-gop-staring-at-worst-case-midterm-scenarios.html

Extract: "But now Trump's unpopularity provides Democrats a path to victory for both chambers."
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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #235 on: September 12, 2018, 03:24:22 AM »

The NYT has counted well over 4,000 lies told by Trump to the US public since he took office, an average of 8 lies per day in office.


Do you think that the NYT, or perhaps yourself, should check the veracity of your own statements prior to publishing? Particularly since the piece is intended to draw attention to the Trump's own litany of misstatements.


How many days has Trump been in office according to the above figures?
Should this be counted as a fib, an exaggeration, or as a lapsus linguae


Certainly it's not a lie, or the whole point of your post would be lost.
Terry

I am traveling for some days so I am too preoccupied to do a proper search, but here is a link to an article from June 1, 2018, with 6.5 false or misleading claims per day.  I will look more later.

Title: "President Trump has made 3,251 false or misleading claims in 497 days"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2018/06/01/president-trump-has-made-3251-false-or-misleading-claims-in-497-days/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.ab8e76f06692

Extract: "In the 497 days since he took the oath of office, President Trump has made 3,251 false or misleading claims, according to The Fact Checker’s database that analyzes, categorizes and tracks every suspect statement uttered by the president.

That’s an average of more than 6.5 claims a day."

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #236 on: September 12, 2018, 03:43:51 AM »

The NYT has counted well over 4,000 lies told by Trump to the US public since he took office, an average of 8 lies per day in office.


Do you think that the NYT, or perhaps yourself, should check the veracity of your own statements prior to publishing? Particularly since the piece is intended to draw attention to the Trump's own litany of misstatements.


How many days has Trump been in office according to the above figures?
Should this be counted as a fib, an exaggeration, or as a lapsus linguae


Certainly it's not a lie, or the whole point of your post would be lost.
Terry

I am traveling for some days so I am too preoccupied to do a proper search, but here is a link to an article from June 1, 2018, with 6.5 false or misleading claims per day.  I will look more later.

Title: "President Trump has made 3,251 false or misleading claims in 497 days"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2018/06/01/president-trump-has-made-3251-false-or-misleading-claims-in-497-days/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.ab8e76f06692

Extract: "In the 497 days since he took the oath of office, President Trump has made 3,251 false or misleading claims, according to The Fact Checker’s database that analyzes, categorizes and tracks every suspect statement uttered by the president.

That’s an average of more than 6.5 claims a day."
Thru September 4 2018, that is 8 false or misleading claims (I think of these as lies) per day, by Trump since taking office:

Title: "President Trump has made 4,713 false or misleading claims in 592 days"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/09/04/president-trump-has-made-false-or-misleading-claims-days/?utm_term=.97dab758f9ea

Extract: "In the 592 days since he took the oath of office, President Trump has made 4,713 false or misleading claims, according to The Fact Checker's database that analyzes, categorizes and tracks every suspect statement uttered by the president.

That's an average of about eight claims a day."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #237 on: September 12, 2018, 03:47:50 AM »

The NYT has counted well over 4,000 lies told by Trump to the US public since he took office, an average of 8 lies per day in office.


Do you think that the NYT, or perhaps yourself, should check the veracity of your own statements prior to publishing? Particularly since the piece is intended to draw attention to the Trump's own litany of misstatements.


How many days has Trump been in office according to the above figures?
Should this be counted as a fib, an exaggeration, or as a lapsus linguae


Certainly it's not a lie, or the whole point of your post would be lost.
Terry

None of the above.  As of today, Trump's been in office 599 days.  Not sure when the count by NYT was tallied, but it could well be an understatement.

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #238 on: September 12, 2018, 08:16:29 AM »

The NYT has counted well over 4,000 lies told by Trump to the US public since he took office, an average of 8 lies per day in office.


Do you think that the NYT, or perhaps yourself, should check the veracity of your own statements prior to publishing? Particularly since the piece is intended to draw attention to the Trump's own litany of misstatements.


How many days has Trump been in office according to the above figures?
Should this be counted as a fib, an exaggeration, or as a lapsus linguae


Certainly it's not a lie, or the whole point of your post would be lost.
Terry

None of the above.  As of today, Trump's been in office 599 days.  Not sure when the count by NYT was tallied, but it could well be an understatement.

They call things that are just "politician talk" lies. If he says Hillary "acid washed" her emails they call it a lie although everyone understands he didn't mean actual acid. I'm not saying he doesn't lie and maybe even more than most but one that fact checks him also should be accurate.

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #239 on: September 12, 2018, 08:45:37 AM »
Obama's Illinois speech is a great lecture on the state of the union, plus an even greater campaign speech. There should be more of this.



Obama: " Trump is doing a terrible job BUT whatever is good- I did it"
Jeez.

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #240 on: September 12, 2018, 12:53:33 PM »

The NYT has counted well over 4,000 lies told by Trump to the US public since he took office, an average of 8 lies per day in office.


Do you think that the NYT, or perhaps yourself, should check the veracity of your own statements prior to publishing? Particularly since the piece is intended to draw attention to the Trump's own litany of misstatements.


How many days has Trump been in office according to the above figures?
Should this be counted as a fib, an exaggeration, or as a lapsus linguae


Certainly it's not a lie, or the whole point of your post would be lost.
Terry

I am traveling for some days so I am too preoccupied to do a proper search, but here is a link to an article from June 1, 2018, with 6.5 false or misleading claims per day.  I will look more later.

Title: "President Trump has made 3,251 false or misleading claims in 497 days"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2018/06/01/president-trump-has-made-3251-false-or-misleading-claims-in-497-days/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.ab8e76f06692

Extract: "In the 497 days since he took the oath of office, President Trump has made 3,251 false or misleading claims, according to The Fact Checker’s database that analyzes, categorizes and tracks every suspect statement uttered by the president.

That’s an average of more than 6.5 claims a day."


I'd counter by noting that 6.5 is not equal to 8. That your statement was factually both false and misleading, and further that using an obvious and evident falsehood in an attempt to impune the honesty of another leaves yourself open to ridicule.


That your statement is " false or misleading" is emphasized when you attempt to equate a Washington Post article indicating 6.5 claims/day with a New York Times claim of 8/day.


It's not the right Newspaper, it's not the right number and it's sounding more and more like the BS that McCarthy spouted when asked how many commies were hiding in the Rose Garden.


"Have you no shame sir?"
Joseph N. Welch


Terry

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #241 on: September 12, 2018, 01:38:22 PM »
Per Klondike Kat:
Quote
Are you seriously using a one-month variation to counter a 10-month trend?  That is worse than those using short-term temperature data to counter long-term trends.  While it is certainly possible that it could continue, it is equally possible that it could reverse.  Nothing much has really changed during the entire time frame.

Boy ...... where do I begin?

1)  It isn't a "one-month variation".  It's almost a THREE MONTH variation.  The "one month" variation is an ACCELERATION OF THE SHORT TERM TREND.  The short term trend STARTED on day 518 of Donnie's term ..... today is day 600.  So the "short term trend" is almost 3 MONTHS.  The POSSIBLE INCREASE IN ACCELERATION of that trend ..... is about a month.

We'll know more in the next 2 - 3 weeks weather that ACCELRATION in the trend continues or not. 

Note:  I have inserted BLUE POINTERS (3 of them) to note where the INTERMEDIATE TREND BOTTOM/TOP (Disapproval/Approval) happened.  The APPROVAL rate had a "double top" which is why it has two pointers.

2)  The BREAK in the INTERMEDIATE TERM trend lines is shown by the RED ARROWS.  "Technically" THAT is when the INTERMEDIATE TERM TRENDS BROKE, and Donnies disapproval/approval ratings changed direction (as his poll numbers worsened).

3)  CHARTS DON'T CAUSE THE FUNDAMENTALS.  FUNDAMENTALS CAUSE THE CHART.  And as I noted many weeks ago ..... Donnie's fundamentals were/are HORRIBLE.  At that time .... I noted that the likelihood that Manafort would lose his upcoming Trial #1.  I also believe I noted the continued fallout from Donnie's trip to Helsinki a couple months ago.  I also noted there were SEVERAL pieces of information likely to come out in coming weeks and months.

THAT ..... is what is causing the chart.  Not only the "change of direction" almost 3 months ago .... but also the  POSSIBLE INCREASE IN THE ACCELERATION OF THE NEW TREND.

Donnie can't help himself.  He is ..... a SOCIOPATH.  Not only is he a sociopath, he has surrounded himself with mostly AWFUL EMPLOYEES that are ill equipped to handle their OWN JOBS ..... and as well, they are ILL EQUIPPED TO REIGN IN A SOCIOPATH.  So Donnie will continue to make horrible decisions, continue to rely on himself, continue to ignore facts, and continue to go with his gut.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to know that.  Someone of average or LESS intelligence (such as myself) can see this clearly.  Even someone like yourself could figure this out.  All you have to do is LOOK AT THE FACTS ..... BECAUSE THEY NEVER GO AWAY.
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #242 on: September 12, 2018, 01:55:08 PM »
More on Obama, the Fake News Media and his Democrats from Dore

"It's all like, look over here why we just do all this evil stuff over there." Sam Tripoli

Quote
[09:52] by the way they're (the Media) are joined at the hip with their political establishment and the political establishment wants to push it because they hate Donald Trump because he when he does horrible stuff it looks horrible because he's horrible right - but when Barack Obama does horrible stuff nobody noticed because he's nice!

So these political establishment people want to get Donald Trump out of there so they can get a guy in there who's got a nice face who does horrible things because they're doing horrible things together

The Democrats helped Trump pass an $80 billion extra dollars on his Pentagon budget; they just got there got together a fast track 15 of his judges lifetime appointments; they get the Democrats together to deregulate Wall Street again and again.

So they're all getting this together, it's not Democrat Policy this is for most for the most part it's not policy. But those cages that Trump are putting kids into, Barack Obama built them -- so he was the original Deporter In Chief  --- long before Trump arrived!!!

So again from a lot of people in the Department of Homeland Security we find out the reason why, what are the reasons why they're pushing it? It's because they wanted to take over certain parts of the local elections and state elections that's why they wanted more power (and control over everything.)

Let's go over to my panel because there's more to this story [10:58]
n
Quote
[11:02] And by the way you'd never see this on the TV news! You'll never see "oh by the way the Undersecretary of the Department of Homeland Security said all that stuff was bullshit", you never see that.

It's Dore who has distorted the truth.  I watched the full video of that Homeland Security honcho testifying, posted on CSPAN.  He says, actually, that about 20 election computer systems where scanned, and a small fraction of those were compromised.  His phrasing seems calculated to minimize the significance, but he does say that some systems were compromised.

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #243 on: September 12, 2018, 05:53:35 PM »
I'd counter by noting that 6.5 is not equal to 8. That your statement was factually both false and misleading, and further that using an obvious and evident falsehood in an attempt to impune the honesty of another leaves yourself open to ridicule.


That your statement is " false or misleading" is emphasized when you attempt to equate a Washington Post article indicating 6.5 claims/day with a New York Times claim of 8/day.


It's not the right Newspaper, it's not the right number and it's sounding more and more like the BS that McCarthy spouted when asked how many commies were hiding in the Rose Garden.


"Have you no shame sir?"
Joseph N. Welch


Terry

Terry,

Your cherry-picking of my posts (as the following is taken from my Reply #249) speaks poorly of you intentions:

Thru September 4 2018, that is 8 false or misleading claims (I think of these as lies) per day, by Trump since taking office:

Title: "President Trump has made 4,713 false or misleading claims in 592 days"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/09/04/president-trump-has-made-false-or-misleading-claims-days/?utm_term=.97dab758f9ea

Extract: "In the 592 days since he took the oath of office, President Trump has made 4,713 false or misleading claims, according to The Fact Checker's database that analyzes, categorizes and tracks every suspect statement uttered by the president.

That's an average of about eight claims a day."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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TerryM

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #244 on: September 12, 2018, 07:38:05 PM »
ASLR
That is simply not what you originally claimed!


You made the whole thing up and you now scramble about trying to find other claims by other papers in a vain attempt to bury that fact.


I'm not going to continue another endless discussion in which you once again refuse to admit that you are wrong.


Terry
BTW - I didn't "cherry pick" some insignificant point, it was the opening paragraph of your post.

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #245 on: September 12, 2018, 09:44:33 PM »
Per Klondike Kat:
Quote
Are you seriously using a one-month variation to counter a 10-month trend?  That is worse than those using short-term temperature data to counter long-term trends.  While it is certainly possible that it could continue, it is equally possible that it could reverse.  Nothing much has really changed during the entire time frame.

Boy ...... where do I begin?

1)  It isn't a "one-month variation".  It's almost a THREE MONTH variation.  The "one month" variation is an ACCELERATION OF THE SHORT TERM TREND.  The short term trend STARTED on day 518 of Donnie's term ..... today is day 600.  So the "short term trend" is almost 3 MONTHS.  The POSSIBLE INCREASE IN ACCELERATION of that trend ..... is about a month.

We'll know more in the next 2 - 3 weeks weather that ACCELRATION in the trend continues or not. 

Note:  I have inserted BLUE POINTERS (3 of them) to note where the INTERMEDIATE TREND BOTTOM/TOP (Disapproval/Approval) happened.  The APPROVAL rate had a "double top" which is why it has two pointers.

2)  The BREAK in the INTERMEDIATE TERM trend lines is shown by the RED ARROWS.  "Technically" THAT is when the INTERMEDIATE TERM TRENDS BROKE, and Donnies disapproval/approval ratings changed direction (as his poll numbers worsened).

3)  CHARTS DON'T CAUSE THE FUNDAMENTALS.  FUNDAMENTALS CAUSE THE CHART.  And as I noted many weeks ago ..... Donnie's fundamentals were/are HORRIBLE.  At that time .... I noted that the likelihood that Manafort would lose his upcoming Trial #1.  I also believe I noted the continued fallout from Donnie's trip to Helsinki a couple months ago.  I also noted there were SEVERAL pieces of information likely to come out in coming weeks and months.

THAT ..... is what is causing the chart.  Not only the "change of direction" almost 3 months ago .... but also the  POSSIBLE INCREASE IN THE ACCELERATION OF THE NEW TREND.

Donnie can't help himself.  He is ..... a SOCIOPATH.  Not only is he a sociopath, he has surrounded himself with mostly AWFUL EMPLOYEES that are ill equipped to handle their OWN JOBS ..... and as well, they are ILL EQUIPPED TO REIGN IN A SOCIOPATH.  So Donnie will continue to make horrible decisions, continue to rely on himself, continue to ignore facts, and continue to go with his gut.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to know that.  Someone of average or LESS intelligence (such as myself) can see this clearly.  Even someone like yourself could figure this out.  All you have to do is LOOK AT THE FACTS ..... BECAUSE THEY NEVER GO AWAY.

It is only a 3-month variation due to the way you drew the line.  A linear regression would show much less.  I will agree with you that the next several weeks will tells us more whether this was a real change in the trend of just normal variation.

I a not arguing about Trump's fundamentals.  Rather, they have changed very little over the past year, such that whatever he does in the next few weeks (short of all-out war) will have little effect on the overall fundamentals.  As long as the economy keeps rolling along, Trump's numbers will not fall too far.  In reality, that is one of the few things keeping him above water.

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #246 on: September 13, 2018, 01:41:36 PM »
Per Klondike Kat:
Quote
Are you seriously using a one-month variation to counter a 10-month trend?  That is worse than those using short-term temperature data to counter long-term trends.  While it is certainly possible that it could continue, it is equally possible that it could reverse.  Nothing much has really changed during the entire time frame.

Boy ...... where do I begin?

I'd begin with a well balanced sensible intelligent fact-based Constitutional / Legal approach.

Such as, even if Trump's number were a 10% approval rating and a 80% Disapproval rating he'd still be the President of the US and would more likely than not remain so until January 2021.

It really doesn't matter how many times a day or week that Buddy calls Trump a Traitor or a Sociopath. It really does not matter what the Polls say from one week, month or year to the next. None of these matters will change a damned thing - Donald Trump is the US President until ........... and retains all his Powers to act as President and to hire and fire as he pleases according to Law.

No amount of wailing tears and no amount of bold text will change that. :)

Well said.

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #247 on: September 13, 2018, 03:18:16 PM »
Quote
I a not arguing about Trump's fundamentals.  Rather, they have changed very little over the past year, such that whatever he does in the next few weeks (short of all-out war) will have little effect on the overall fundamentals..

I AM talking about "fundamentals" .... and how they are reflected in the chart.  The fundamentals cause the chart.

Trump's fundamentals WORSENED shortly before the chart turned against him.  How?

1)  He announced he was going to meet with Putin in Helsinki.  Just the announcement ALONE (before the actual meeting) was the start of it.

2).
Then .... Donnie REALLY botched things up when he met with Putin in Helsinki and did everything short of giving Vladi oral sex right on the stage.  NOT a good look.  Big mistake (by BOTH Vladi and Trump). 

3)  He started separating kids from their parents coming into the country.  NOT a "good look."  People noticed ..... and have punished him in the polls.

4) The effects of the Trump Tax Cut have had VERY LITTLE BENEFIT for middle income earners, and the tax bill has been shown to be a "bust" in polling numbers.  People don't like it (and for good reason).  That fundamental is being reflected in the chart.

5)  Manafort trial number 1:  Some of Donnie's hard core supporters are just beginning to figure out that there REALLY IS SOMETHING TO THIS RUSSIA THING. The Manafort trial showed this.  Of note..... one of the jurors, an avid Trump supporter, in an interview on FOX said that if Manafort committed crimes, he should pay for it.  THAT IS NOTEWORTHY.  You see .... some of the people that voted for Trump THINK HE REALLY DIDN'T DO ANYTHING.  When it turns out that Trump has lied all along about Russian interference .....a significant portion of his base WILL TURN ON HIM.    There will certainly be a piece of his base that could care less what he did or what he knew.  But it is NOT ALL OF HIS BASE BY ANY STRETCH OF THE IMAGINATION.  There are some in his base that will leave him.  Manfort trial number 2 will cause some of that.  If Donnie stays in office until the next year ..... AND .... the Democrat's win the House, then NEXT YEAR MORE WILL LEAVE HIM AS PUBLIC HEARINGS EXPOSE HIM.

6)  The ACTUAL outcome of the hurricane from about a year ago in Puerto Rico has been recently released ..... showing that the response to the hurricane was significantly short of a good outcome.7)

If you have a BAD HEAD COACH of a pro football team, and he goes out and hires BAD PLAYERS ..... bad things continue to happen.  That is exactly where Trump is.  He is horrible, and he has gone out of his way to find as many bad employees as he can (with maybe one or two exceptions).  Eventually, ALL the good players will leave.  But right now ..... there aren't enough good players to keep Trump out of trouble.   

Quote
As long as the economy keeps rolling along, Trump's numbers will not fall too far.  In reality, that is one of the few things keeping him above water

First ..... Trump is NOT "above water" .... unless what you mean by above water is "not impeached."  Trump's disapproval numbers are significantly above his approval numbers:  In Fivethirtyeight.com's numbers, Trump is now 14 points UNDER WATER (disapproval 54 vs approval of 40).

FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

SteveMDFP

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #248 on: September 13, 2018, 03:41:01 PM »

First ..... Trump is NOT "above water" .... unless what you mean by above water is "not impeached."  Trump's disapproval numbers are significantly above his approval numbers:  In Fivethirtyeight.com's numbers, Trump is now 14 points UNDER WATER (disapproval 54 vs approval of 40).

Of course, right now, the most important thing isn't Trump's ratings, it's the R vs D congressional ballot (they're related, but different).   Fivethirtyeight.com is showing a solid floor of support for Rs, at a stable 39%.  The D's have been slowly but steadily rising, now 48.8%. 

I think events (other than the general economy) will tend to improve things for Ds.  The economy is important, but the steady stream of bad events for Hair Furor is a big headwind for the Rs, as they're seen as lapdogs.  They can't campaign against Trump for the general election, or the base won't turn out for them.  They can't really embrace Trump, or moderates will reject them.  I'm cautiously optimistic the House will flip.  The Senate flipping seems wildly improbable still, though.

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #249 on: September 14, 2018, 10:45:44 PM »
The linked op/ed. piece opines that the Manafort plea deal will help the Democrats in the coming midterm elections:

Title: "Manafort plea deal a pivotal moment in Mueller probe — and in midterms"

http://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/406744-Manafort-plea-deal-a-pivotal-moment-in-Mueller-probe%E2%80%94and-in-midterms

Extract: "The political impact of the Manafort deal will provide a huge lift to Democrats in the upcoming elections. Democrats have made every effort to defend Mueller and to seek the facts in the Russia investigation. Republican refusal to definitively protect Mueller, and the actions of some prominent right-wing Republicans in Congress to keep escalating their attacks against Mueller, the Justice Department and the FBI, will prove disastrous to Republicans in November.

The major trend lines in public opinion will continue. Mueller’s popularity will continue to strengthen. Trump’s popularity will continue to weaken. The Democratic surge in midterm polling will continue. The Republican lag will continue and possibly worsen."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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