GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election

[Buddy]

Realclearpolitics.com now has the US House race at 206 Dems, 191 Republicans, and 38 “tossups”.  The number needed for a majority is 218.

Still early ..... and anything can happen .... but the blue tide is rising.

[Buddy]

By the time of the election ..... the Realclearpolitics number (which also closely tracks Cook and Sabato numbers) could be sitting at 210 - 215 Dems and 180 - 185 Republicans with 40 tossups.  The magic total needed for the majority is 218.

Hurricane Donnie is indeed bringing in a high blue tide.  And there are STILL some HUGE “bombs” from the Mueller investigation AND from Michael Cohen and Paul Manafort which .... if they were to become public information before the elections, would destroy both Trump AND the Republicans further.

Trump’s removal from office has always been, and continues to be, a matter of WHEN (and if) the information from the investigations comes public.  Donnie will not resign .... because he would immediately be charged with his criminal behavior.  And right now his sociopathic behavior STILL has him believing he can somehow survive this.

When that thought vanishes, he will try to get rid of Sessions/Rosenstein and try and close down the investigation.  If THAT doesn’t work .... then a one way trip to Russia is a REAL possibility (35% chance right now ... but that can change).

What also needs to be noted, is that Trump’s rate of lying IS INCREASING since Labor Day.  He is spinning out of control.  It’s awfully hard to tell what will be the last straw ... and HOW this will end.  But with someone as sick as Trump at the wheel ... it will likely end badly.

[mostly_lurking]

  And there are STILL some HUGE “bombs”

On both sides. Will be interesting.

[AbruptSLR]

In 2012 the GOP decided to become the party of white men and they are about to learn the consequences of that decision in the 2018 midterms:

Title: "The GOP's epic political malpractice"

https://www.axios.com/2018-midterm-elections-republicans-house-senate-d9c0ad07-985a-4b0d-861f-defb73f2f5ca.html

Extract: "A Republican official deeply involved in midterm campaigns told me: "If there was any way to reduce the noise (unlikely!!) we could survive. [There's] so much noise [that it doesn't] allow people to realize economy/life is good."

Be smart: This election could echo long from now. Republicans seem certain to end this election even more defined as the party of white men, a group slowly but surely shrinking in power.

There's a reason that the party’s autopsy after the 2012 election called for an urgent push for inclusion: Demographics don’t lie."

[wili]

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/406816-dems-confidence-swells-with-midterms-fast-approaching

Dems' confidence swells with midterms fast approaching

...Democrats need to pick up 23 seats to capture the Speaker’s gavel — a seemingly heavy lift — but they have history on their side.
 
The party controlling the White House has lost seats in 36 of the 39 midterm cycles going back to the Civil War. The average loss, according to the analysts at Sabato’s Crystal Ball, an election handicapper at the University of Virginia, is a whopping 33 seats.
 
Democrats, though, see signals well outside of civics textbooks that are fueling the optimistic sense that they’ll control the chamber next year for the first time since they were clobbered at the polls in 2010.
 
The most recent generic poll, a gauge of how voters feel about the parties without naming individual candidates, found the Democrats with a 14 point advantage — an enormous gap predicting the House would likely flip...

[Buddy]

The Kavenaugh nomination is now coming under more pressure due to the female California professor coming forward and putting her name to her allegation against him of attempted rape.  In addition, she took and passed a lie detector test.

This also puts more pressure on Congressmen to slow down the process of SCOTUS nomination.  This will spill over and have an effect on the coming November election.

More fuel for a blue high tide ....

[Klondike Kat]

The Kavenaugh nomination is now coming under more pressure due to the female California professor coming forward and putting her name to her allegation against him of attempted rape.  In addition, she took and passed a lie detector test.

This also puts more pressure on Congressmen to slow down the process of SCOTUS nomination.  This will spill over and have an effect on the coming November election.

More fuel for a blue high tide ....

I suspect these allegations will have little to no effect.  They are from a high school incident 35 years ago.

[litesong]

Donnie....Keep tweeting Donnie....

Agree with yer post, 'cept his name is "don'T rump".

[Buddy]

I suspect these allegations will have little to no effect.  They are from a high school incident 35 years ago.

The attempted rape happened 35 years ago.  The LIE about the attempted rape happened this past week.

For anyone with ethics .... things like attempted rape MATTER.  No matter WHEN they happened.  If indeed Kavenaugh did attempt to rape the woman ..... it matters A LOT.  And the fact that he is lying NOW matters a lot.  Also note ...... Kavenaugh has already been caught in a couple of lies from his earlier testimony when he was nominated as a federal judge.

For anyone on Fifth Avenue that sees Donnie shoot someone ..... it won't matter at all.  But the Republican polling numbers CONTINUE TO DECLINE FOR WOMEN ...... AND FOR INDENPENDENTS.

Those WILL BE effected by the Kavenaugh issues.

I expect the Republicans to move forward with his nomination process as quickly as they can.  But they WILL suffer a reaction from some voters.  They (the Republicans) already have two women molesters in office:  Trump and Justice Thomas..... they certainly aren't above adding a third.

 

[SteveMDFP]

I suspect these allegations will have little to no effect.  They are from a high school incident 35 years ago.

I wouldn't be so sure.  Most of Roy Moore's scandalous behavior was similarly long ago. 
As one part of the picture of reasons to oppose Kavanaugh, I think this may tip the scales against him.  Especially so if Senators perceive him to be lying about the facts of the matter.  His truthfulness has already been called into question in other matters before the Senate.  He's fairly strikingly unpopular with the American people. 

Note that the vote to send his name to the floor was already delayed once.  i don't think there'd have been any delay at all if all the R's were firmly on board with him.

[Klondike Kat]

I suspect these allegations will have little to no effect.  They are from a high school incident 35 years ago.

I wouldn't be so sure.  Most of Roy Moore's scandalous behavior was similarly long ago. 
As one part of the picture of reasons to oppose Kavanaugh, I think this may tip the scales against him.  Especially so if Senators perceive him to be lying about the facts of the matter.  His truthfulness has already been called into question in other matters before the Senate.  He's fairly strikingly unpopular with the American people. 

Note that the vote to send his name to the floor was already delayed once.  i don't think there'd have been any delay at all if all the R's were firmly on board with him.

Yeah, well Moore was in his 30s pursuing underage girls. This case is about two underage high school students.  Big difference.

[Klondike Kat]

I suspect these allegations will have little to no effect.  They are from a high school incident 35 years ago.

I wouldn't be so sure.  Most of Roy Moore's scandalous behavior was similarly long ago. 
As one part of the picture of reasons to oppose Kavanaugh, I think this may tip the scales against him.  Especially so if Senators perceive him to be lying about the facts of the matter.  His truthfulness has already been called into question in other matters before the Senate.  He's fairly strikingly unpopular with the American people. 

Note that the vote to send his name to the floor was already delayed once.  i don't think there'd have been any delay at all if all the R's were firmly on board with him.

[mostly_lurking]

In Moore's case there was also "evidence" of some sort no matter how bad it was.
and it was an election not a vote in the senate. Big difference.

[AbruptSLR]

In Moore's case there was also "evidence" of some sort no matter how bad it was.
and it was an election not a vote in the senate. Big difference.

There is more evidence supporting this accusation than a simple 'He said, she said'.

Title: "Christine Blasey Ford"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christine_Blasey_Ford

Extract: "In July 2018, after Judge Brett Kavanaugh was reported to be on the shortlist to become an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States, Ford sent a confidential letter to her Representative Anna Eshoo, who forwarded it to Senator Dianne Feinstein, alleging Kavanaugh had sexually assaulted her when both were in high school. In August she took a polygraph test with a former FBI agent, who concluded she was being truthful. The FBI included a redacted version of her letter in the background material provided to the White House and Senate for Kavanaugh's Supreme Court nomination.

On September 16, 2018, after the accusations were made public and reporters started to track down her identity, Ford went public. According to her, the sexual assault took place in the summer of 1982 when she was 15 and he was 17. She told The Washington Post that, with another boy watching, Kavanaugh, intoxicated, held her down on a bed with his body, grinding against and groping her, covering her mouth when she tried to scream and trying to pull her clothes off. She recounted escaping when the second boy jumped on them both and they all fell. To corroborate her account, Ford provided The Post with the polygraph as well as session notes from her therapist written in 2012. The notes do not name Kavanaugh but record her claim of being attacked by students "from an elitist boys' school" who went on to become "highly respected and high-ranking members of society in Washington." Ford's husband recalled that she had used Kavanaugh's last name in her 2012 description of the incident."

[AbruptSLR]

In the 1990's Kavanaugh wrote an email to Ken Starr encouraging him to publically expose all of Bill Clinton's past sexual transgressions, so he must concur that he himself should be treated the same way:

Title: "Why God Is Laughing at Brett Kavanaugh "

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/09/17/kavanaugh-supreme-court-ford-sexual-assault-219983

Extract: "Few prosecutors, it seems likely, would ever open an assault case—36 years later—on the basis of Christine Blasey Ford’s account of being pinned down on a bed by a drunken Kavanaugh, then 17, and being aggressively groped until a friend of his physically jumped in.

But few prosecutors in the 1990s would have pursued an extensive criminal investigation over perjury into a middle-aged man’s lies about adultery if that person had not been President Bill Clinton. In his zeal at the time, Kavanaugh, like Starr, may have worked himself into a belief that this was about sacred principles of law, but to many others—and ultimately to a clear majority of the country—it was obvious that the case was fundamentally about political power.

Kavanaugh’s fate, too, now depends on precisely the same thing: Do the allegations change the calculation for the perhaps half-a-dozen senators—including Republicans Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska—whose minds were not already made up by earlier political calculations?

With the benefit of hindsight, Kavanaugh later concluded presidents should be shielded from criminal investigations of the sort he helped wage against Clinton. At the time, however, he was filled with righteous indignation. “It is our job,” he wrote colleagues in Starr’s office in an email, “to make his pattern of revolting behavior clear—piece by painful piece.”"

[AbruptSLR]

Hiring a high-priced lawyer from Wilkinson Walsh + Eskovitz does not mean that Kavanaugh is guilty of attempted rape, but it does mean that he thinks that he is in hot water:

Title: "Kavanaugh, Amid Sexual Assault Claim, Reportedly Hires Beth Wilkinson"

https://www.law.com/nationallawjournal/2018/09/17/kavanaugh-amid-sexual-assault-claim-reportedly-hires-beth-wilkinson/?slreturn=20180817161526

Extract: "Beth Wilkinson has deep experience representing high-profile clients in hot water, and recently commented on her experience as a female trial lawyer."

[AbruptSLR]

Per the conservative pundit cited in the linked article, the GOP needs to defend Kavanuagh against the attempted rape allegation (even if they are true) in order to improve their chances of overturning Roe v. Wade:

Title: "A conservative reveals what’s really going on with denying Kavanuagh accusations"

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/9/17/17870408/brett-kavanaugh-sexual-assault-allegation-conservatives-abortion

Extract: "Erickson is insisting that this is about something he views as bigger than sexual assault and #MeToo. He sees a desperate power play aimed at preserving Roe v. Wade: Not only should Ford not be believed, but she must have political motivations because the stakes are so very high."

[AbruptSLR]

The linked article presents background information about Mark Judge and Georgetown Prep, which are not flattering:

Title: "Mark Judge, the other man named in Christine Ford’s Brett Kavanaugh allegations, explained"

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/9/17/17870642/mark-judge-brett-kavanaugh-friend-christine-ford

Extract: "Ford alleges Judge was in the room when Kavanaugh assaulted her — and that he played along.
…
Ford describes Judge as watching Kavanaugh’s alleged assault, occasionally egging him on, and eventually jumping on top of her and Kavanaugh — a move that allowed her to escape.

Kavanaugh has vehemently denied the allegations as “completely false.” Judge denied them to the Weekly Standard on Friday. (He declined to comment to the Washington Post for its article published Sunday.)

Judge was a classmate of Kavanaugh’s at Georgetown Preparatory School in Maryland and is now a conservative writer who has written for publications such as the Daily Caller and the American Spectator.

He’s floated some controversial ideas in his writings — including asking in 2006 whether gay people are perverts and longing for the days when President George W. Bush could give his wife, Laura, a “loving but firm pat on the backside in public” as a show that he “knew who was boss.” He’s also the author of several books, including one recounting his teenage years of alcoholism and addiction.
…
As Mother Jones reported, Judge’s 2005 book, God and Man at Georgetown Prep, “apparently paints the school as overrun with gay priests who promote a form of liberalism that wrecks Catholic education.” (The book is now out of print). And both that title and Judge’s 1997 memoir, Wasted: Takes of a Gen X Drunk, detail rampant alcoholism at the school, including his own.

In the book, according to Mother Jones’s Stephanie Mencimer, Judge writes that he reached a point where once he had one beer, “I found it impossible to stop until I was completely annihilated.” He writes that the school made students do community service on Sundays in an effort to try to keep them from drinking too much the night before.

Judge refers to Georgetown Prep as “Loyola Prep” and, according Mother Jones, also changes the names of the people in the book — but he wasn’t too sneaky about it, apparently, because there’s a “Bart O’Kavanaugh” in the book who seems quite likely to be Brett Kavanaugh:"

[AbruptSLR]

Kavanaugh & Ford are scheduled to testify before the Senate Judiciary Committee on Monday; which delays Kavanaugh's confirmation vote:

Title: "Kavanaugh and his accuser to testify publicly on Monday"

https://www.axios.com/kavanaugh-accuser-to-testify-publicly-monday-5da3767b-9813-40b3-9cda-3c01e24debf2.html

Extract: "Brett Kavanaugh and Christine Blasey Ford, the woman who accused the Supreme Court nominee of assaulting her in high school, will be called to testify before the Senate Judiciary Committee on Monday at 10:00 a.m.

Why it matters: The announcement of the hearing effectively delays Thursday's committee vote on Kavanaugh's confirmation."

[Buddy]

Intermediate trends that started on 06-17 in the Gallup Poll continue.  Higher disapproval numbers, and lower approval numbers.

This also mirrors the recent numbers advantage by the Democrat's in the House ..... and now even the Senate numbers.  The Senate .... which I thought was a "relative LOCK" by the Republicans is now beginning to show more cracks.  Fivethirtyeight.com now has the odds of the Republicans maintaining the majority at 67% (the odds of the Democrat's taking the majority at 33%).  That has changed materially over the last couple of months.

Still a LOT of VERY CLOSE RACES in the Senate ..... about 9 or so ..... so anything can happen, and the Senate is STILL the Republican's to lose.  But when you have Donald Trump and Ted Cruz on "your side" .... any car CAN be driven into a ditch.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/

[Klondike Kat]

All in all, it reminds me of the Shakespearean play, and Benedict and Beatrice will reconcile.

[Klondike Kat]

Intermediate trends that started on 06-17 in the Gallup Poll continue.  Higher disapproval numbers, and lower approval numbers.

This also mirrors the recent numbers advantage by the Democrat's in the House ..... and now even the Senate numbers.  The Senate .... which I thought was a "relative LOCK" by the Republicans is now beginning to show more cracks.  Fivethirtyeight.com now has the odds of the Republicans maintaining the majority at 67% (the odds of the Democrat's taking the majority at 33%).  That has changed materially over the last couple of months.

Still a LOT of VERY CLOSE RACES in the Senate ..... about 9 or so ..... so anything can happen, and the Senate is STILL the Republican's to lose.  But when you have Donald Trump and Ted Cruz on "your side" .... any car CAN be driven into a ditch.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/

The latest 538 forecast (including those where either party has a slight advantage), the House is at Dem - 216, Rep - 201, with 18 tossups.  The Senate is 49-49 with two tossups (ND and FL).  Although they have both MO and TN going blue, while the polls and other pundits have it as a pure tossup.   I think their odds for a Democratic takeover of the House, but a Republican hold of the Senate will hold. 

[Buddy]

Florida governor booed out of restaurant over red tide algae issues

Medicare fraudster and science denier Rick Scott apparently wasn't well received at a restaurant in Florida ...... actually being booed OUT of the restaurant.

A particularly bad "red tide" hit Florida this summer ..... and science denier Rick Scott is TARGET NUMBER ONE.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/407141-florida-governor-booed-out-of-restaurant-over-red-tide-algae-issues

For those of you NOT familiar with Rick Scott ..... Rick was the CEO of Columbia Healthcare when Columbia committed the largest Medicare fraud in US history.  Way to go Rick....  Rick took the fifth amendment 75 times.  Not exactly the most truthful guy on the block.

Getting Rick Scott out of government would be GREAT for Florida AND the US. 

[AbruptSLR]

The linked op/ed. makes a few good points as to why Ford's accusations could contribute to a blue wave in November:

Title: "Kavanaugh allegations could be monster storm brewing for midterm elections"

https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/407108-kavanaugh-allegations-could-be-monster-storm-brewing-for-midterm-elections

Extract: "The Thomas hearings occurred a full year before the 1992 election, but the repercussions could be seen a year later.  1992 was the Year of the Woman.  The number of female senators went from two to six and the number of women elected to the House from 28 to 47.

Things may be different now.  We're in the “me too” era.  It is no longer possible to dismiss women's claims of sexual harassment as “a fantasy,” as Republicans tried to do with Anita Hill.  Trump supporters may argue that Kavanaugh is being accused of sexual misconduct during his high school years when he was 17 years old, more than 30 years ago.   The problem is that Kavanaugh said last week, “I categorically and unequivocally deny this allegation.  I did not do this back in high school or at any time.”  If he is seen to be lying now, at age 53, it would raise serious doubts about his fitness to serve on the high court."

[AbruptSLR]

Is Mark Judge afraid to perjure himself under oath in the confirmation hearings?

Title: "Key witness tells senators he won't testify at Kavanaugh hearing"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/18/grassley-kavanaugh-accuser-hearing-827921

Extract: "GOP senators are pressing ahead with a rare public hearing next week on Christine Blasey Ford’s sexual assault allegation against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh despite not yet getting her agreement to testify.

Another key witness in Ford’s decades-old allegation, Kavanaugh’s high school classmate Mark Judge, also declined to testify Tuesday. Judge, who Ford says was the third person in the room when Kavanaugh assaulted her, said in a letter to the Senate Judiciary Committee that “I have no more information to offer the committee and I do not wish to speak publicly regarding the incidents.”"

[Klondike Kat]

Is Mark Judge afraid to perjure himself under oath in the confirmation hearings?

BS, Mark Judge is obviously a sane well-balanced sensible person.

If some one ordered me to testify in court about something that happened as a teenager, no matter what the alleged crime was, I would refuse, and if I couldn't refuse and they dragged me into Court in handcuffs then I would not recall a single event. Nothing.

How much could he possible recall from a party 35 years ago in which he was highly intoxicated?  Perhaps he should ask if Christine Blasey Ford is afraid to testify for the same reason.

[AbruptSLR]

Judge's bad boy behavior in high school is noted in the linked article:

Title: "'Uncontrollable male passion': Writings of Brett Kavanaugh's classmate under scrutiny"

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2018/09/18/mark-judge-brett-kavanaugh-classmate/1343556002/

Extract: ""Certain women should be struck regularly, like gongs."

That quote from British playwright Noel Coward was featured on Mark Judge's senior yearbook page when he graduated from Georgetown Preparatory School in Bethesda, Maryland, in 1983, according to a report from The Washington Post.

Judge is the man accused of watching and laughing while his friend Brett Kavanaugh – now a nominee to the Supreme Court –  held a girl down and tried to remove her clothes at a party while they were all in high school.

Since the allegations by psychology professor Christine Blasey Ford came to light, the the writings of Judge, an author and columnist, are under intense scrutiny. From his high school yearbook quote to his more recent opinion pieces, Judge's takes on men, women and sexuality are raising eyebrows.
…
But Judge's memoirs, "Wasted: Tales of a GenX Drunk" and "God and Man at Georgetown Prep: How I Became a Catholic Despite 20 Years of Catholic Schooling," paint a very different picture of what the Post called a "nest of debauchery." And he said his drinking and "immorality" began at that school, even as he credited the education he received there, the Post reported."

[AbruptSLR]

Go 'Big-Blue', show what you can do:

Title: "Poll: Gillum leads DeSantis by 6 points in Florida governor race"

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/407370-poll-gillum-leads-desantis-by-6-points-in-florida-governor-race

Extract: "Democrat Andrew Gillum holds a 6-point lead over Ron DeSantis (R) in the hotly contested gubernatorial campaign in Florida, according to a new poll.

The Reuters–Ipsos–UVA Center for Politics poll found that 50 percent of voters surveyed support Gillum, compared to 44 percent who back DeSantis."

&

Title: "Poll: Beto O'Rourke leads Cruz by 2 points in Texas Senate race"

https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/407369-poll-beto-orourke-leads-cruz-by-2-points-in-texas-senate-race

Extract: "Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D) holds a 2-point lead over incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R) in a new poll of their Texas Senate race.

The Reuters–Ipsos–University of Virginia Center for Politics poll released on Wednesday found that 47 percent of voters said they favored O'Rourke, while 45 percent said they favored Cruz."

[AbruptSLR]

It is possible that the subtext of Kavanaugh's comment cited in the linked article means that he thinks it is funny to joke about the attempted rape of 15-year old high school co-eds by 17-year old boys

Title: "'What happens at Georgetown Prep, stays at Georgetown Prep,' Kavanaugh joked in 2015"

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2018/09/19/brett-kavanaugh-georgetown-prep-joke/1355117002/

Extract: "Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh is facing criticism for a joke he made about his high school in 2015, amid an allegation that he sexually assaulted a girl when he was a high school student.

"What happens at Georgetown Prep, stays at Georgetown Prep," Kavanaugh joked during a speech at the Catholic University's Columbus School of Law in Washington.

Kavanaugh said three of his good friends from Georgetown Preparatory School, who he remained close with, went to Columbus. He praised the law school for gearing its students to care about the poor and underprivileged and instilling a sense of service, which reminded him of his high school's motto, "Be men for others."

And he then said he remembered another unofficial motto from his time at the school.

"But fortunately, we had a good saying that we've held firm to, to this day, as the dean was reminding me before the talk, which is, 'What happens at Georgetown Prep, stays at Georgetown Prep,' " Kavanaugh said, drawing a few laughs. "That's been a good thing for all of us, I think."
Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., shared a clip of Kavanaugh making the joke in a tweet on Tuesday.

"I can't imagine any parent accepting this view. Is this really what America wants in its next Supreme Court Justice?" she wrote."

[TerryM]

In the mean time 538 shows the Republicans back to within <8 points of the Democrats. The Trumpster, among those most likely to vote, now is about where Reagan and Clinton were at this stage heading into their first mid-terms.


Time to dig into your pockets, and maybe volunteer to drive a few stragglers to the polls in November.
Terry

[AbruptSLR]

More evidence that Dr. Ford's allegation is likely true:

Title: "Accuser's schoolmate says she recalls hearing of alleged Kavanaugh incident"

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/accuser-s-schoolmate-says-she-recalls-hearing-alleged-kavanaugh-incident-n911111

Extract: "A former schoolmate of Brett Kavanaugh’s accuser wrote a Facebook post saying she recalls hearing about the alleged assault involving Kavanaugh, though she says she has no first-hand information to corroborate the accuser’s claims.

"Christine Blasey Ford was a year or so behind me," wrote the woman, Cristina Miranda King, who now works as a performing arts curator in Mexico City. "I did not know her personally but I remember her. This incident did happen."


She added, "Many of us heard a buzz about it indirectly with few specific details. However Christine's vivid recollection should be more than enough for us to truly, deeply know that the accusation is true.""

[TerryM]

More evidence that Dr. Ford's allegation is likely true:

Title: "Accuser's schoolmate says she recalls hearing of alleged Kavanaugh incident"

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/accuser-s-schoolmate-says-she-recalls-hearing-alleged-kavanaugh-incident-n911111

Extract: "A former schoolmate of Brett Kavanaugh’s accuser wrote a Facebook post saying she recalls hearing about the alleged assault involving Kavanaugh, though she says she has no first-hand information to corroborate the accuser’s claims.

"Christine Blasey Ford was a year or so behind me," wrote the woman, Cristina Miranda King, who now works as a performing arts curator in Mexico City. "I did not know her personally but I remember her. This incident did happen."


She added, "Many of us heard a buzz about it indirectly with few specific details. However Christine's vivid recollection should be more than enough for us to truly, deeply know that the accusation is true.""

If it's not the Russians interfering in America's elections it's Mexicans messing with the Supreme Court.
The Horror - The Horror
When will these foreigners ever learn.
/sarc


That doesn't even qualify as hearsay - it's school yard gossip from decades past.


Kavanaugh's going to be a terrible Justice. Perhaps the Corporate Democrats who opened the door for him should be run out of town on a rail - or at least voted out of office?


Terry

[AbruptSLR]

The GOP rush to judgement:

Title: "Ford lawyer: GOP plan for Kavanaugh hearing 'not a fair or good faith investigation'"

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ford-lawyer-gop-plan-for-kavanaugh-hearing-not-a-fair-or-good-faith-investigation/ar-BBNydOi?ocid=spartandhp

Extract: " The lawyer for the woman who has accused Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh of sexual assault, said Wednesday that the GOP's "rush to a hearing is unnecessary, and contrary to the Committee discovering the truth.""

[Klondike Kat]

I think it is the opposite.  She has been given a forum to state her case in front of the entire Senate.  Why would she not want to exert her right to do so?  That would seem to be the most effective avenue to verifying her claim,

[SteveMDFP]

I think it is the opposite.  She has been given a forum to state her case in front of the entire Senate.  Why would she not want to exert her right to do so?  That would seem to be the most effective avenue to verifying her claim,

You may want to revisit the Anita Hill history.  She, too, had an 11th hour complaint about sexual misconduct.  She, at least, had an FBI investigation before she testified (and abused therein).  This accuser is asking for the treatment that precedent dictates, that's all.

[Buddy]

There is GOING to be an investigation into the sexual allegation against Kavanaugh.  If the Republicans don’t want to do it (like Bush senior DID in the Clarence Thomas case) ... that’s their choice.  That will only serve to rile up the Democratic base EVEN MORE.  But even if there is NOT a formal investigation now by the FBI ..... there definitely will be an investigation by private investigators over the coming days/weeks/months ..... and I expect every student that attended one of the two high schools to be interviewed.

Anyone who thinks this is just going to “go away” is sorely mistaken. If there WAS a party .... then there are witnesses to the party, and there are surely witnesses who can place all 3 of the people (Kavanaugh, Kavanaugh’s friend, and the professor) at the scene.

It is NOT a good look that Kavanaugh does not want an FBI investigation ... and I think most of us know what that reason is.

[wili]

Yeah, contrast that with Franken, accused of much milder behavior, who welcomed a full investigation, but ultimately and tragically felt too much pressure and resigned, much to the loss of his constituents and the nation, imvho.

[Klondike Kat]

The difference with Franken is that he was a sitting Senator at the time.  Contrast that with a high school student.

[Buddy]

.... a high school student 36 years ago, who has already been proven to have lied when he was appointed as a federal judge.

If there is smoke coming from two or three windows in a house, the fire is not far behind. 🤭

[Buddy]

Larry Sabato just updated the House and Governor’s races on his site today.  Seven house races were updated ... ALL were updated as moving towards the Democratic candidate.  ALL SEVEN.

The two Governor races they updated also moved towards the Democrat (Colorado and Michigan).  Donnie is losing the Midwest as I stated a week or two ago.

[AbruptSLR]

One would think that as a nominee to become a Supreme Court Justice that Kavanaugh would be encouraging Grassely to request a FBI investigation of Ford's claims so that:

a) He could get Mark Judge's sworn testimony on this matter;
b) He could see the results of the lie detector test that the FBI administered on Ford about her statement;
c) He could review the records of Ford's psychotherapy sessions on this matter; and
d) He could be assured that the FBI had interviewed Ford's classmates regarding their knowledge of this matter.

Instead Kavanaugh, may only get a disorganized investigation by the Senate Judiciary Committee calling Ford and Kavanaugh into a rushed 'he said, she said' kangaroo court; which will cast a shadow over future Supreme Court rulings (if Kavanaugh is confirmed):

Title: "Ford opens door to testifying next week"

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/407654-ford-opens-the-door-to-testifying-next-week

Extract: "The woman accusing Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh of sexual assault says she's willing to testify next week under certain conditions that have yet to be negotiated.

The lawyer for Christine Blasey Ford told the Senate Judiciary Committee in an email that Ford would be prepared to testify next week if senators offer "terms that are fair and which ensure her safety," The New York Times reported on Thursday."

See also:

Title: "Senate Democrats increase pressure for FBI investigation of Kavanaugh"

https://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/407639-senate-democrats-increase-pressure-for-fbi-investigation-of-kavanaugh

Extract: "The signatories identified themselves as former prosecutors and attorneys general.

“The allegations now before us include a number of issues that would ordinarily be addressed by law enforcement,” they wrote. “One of these is the fact that the allegations mention multiple witnesses who may have relevant information to share in an interview. Another is that there are reports of medical evidence and a polygraph test which should be reviewed.”
…
Democrats argued in their letter to Trump Thursday that the FBI investigated sexual harassment allegations Anita Hill made against then Supreme Court nominee Clarence Thomas in 1991."

[AbruptSLR]

The difference with Franken is that he was a sitting Senator at the time.  Contrast that with a high school student.

The point is that a 53-year old Kavangaugh has testified that the incident that Ford cited did not happen; and that the Senate Judiciary Committee could easily subpoena Mark Judge to testify as an alleged witness of this attempted rape, but due to political motivations Kavanaugh, Grassely nor Trump are calling for an FBI investigation of these allegations:

Title: "Brett Kavanaugh"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brett_Kavanaugh

Extract: "Sexual assault allegation

On September 16, 2018, Christine Blasey Ford, a professor at Palo Alto University, alleged Kavanaugh had sexually assaulted her when he was a 17-year old high school student. Specifically, Ford stated that in the early 1980s, when she and Kavanaugh were teenagers, Kavanaugh and a male friend "corralled" her in a bedroom at a house party in Maryland. According to Ford, Kavanaugh pinned her to the bed, groped her, ground against her, and tried to pull off her clothes and covered her mouth with his hand when she tried to scream. Ford said that she was afraid Kavanaugh "might inadvertently kill me" during the attack. According to Ford, Kavanaugh got away when one of his friends from Georgetown Prep School jumped on the bed, knocking them all over. Her attorney, Debra Katz, has stated that Ford considers the assault to have been an attempted rape.

Ford's allegation had previously been made anonymously; she came forward publicly after Republicans criticized the anonymous nature of her allegation against Kavanaugh. Three days earlier, Ford's allegation had come to light in anonymous form, when Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-California) asserted the existence of a complaint by a woman who requested not to be identified, against Kavanaugh, in which she accuses him of trying to force himself on her while physically restraining her when they were both in high school.

Kavanaugh issued a statement through the White House that said, "I categorically and unequivocally deny this allegation. I did not do this back in high school or at any time." Republicans criticized the decision to withhold "a vague, anonymous accusation for months" before releasing it on the "eve of [Kavanaugh's] confirmation" as an attempt to delay the Kavanaugh confirmation hearings.

Ford has provided a therapist's notes of references she made in couples counseling in 2012 describing the psychological effects of the alleged assault. The therapist's notes, parts of which were released on September 16, 2018, confirm that she had stated that she was assaulted by students "from an elitist boys' school", who eventually became "highly respected and high-ranking members of society in Washington", although the notes do not name Kavanaugh. Notes from another session a year later show that Ford had previously described a "rape attempt" while in high school.

The Senate Judiciary Committee released a letter on September 14, 2018, in which 65 women signatories who say that they've known Kavanaugh "for more than 35 years" and during the time they've known him, "he has behaved honorably and treated women with respect." Twenty-four women who attended the Holton-Arms School along with Ford sent a letter to Congress expressing support for her.

In response to the Ford allegation, the Senate Judiciary Committee invited both Kavanaugh and Ford to provide testimony before the Committee on September 24, 2018. Kavanaugh has agreed to testify on September 24. Ford requested that the Federal Bureau of Investigation investigate her allegation first, but Senate Judiciary Committee Chair Chuck Grassley declined that request and gave Ford a deadline of Friday, September 21 to tell the Committee whether she intends to testify. Grassley added that Ford was welcome to appear before the Committee either privately or publicly."

[litesong]

Obama really missed....

Lurch is still upset that "merica broke its streak of white men  Pressy-dents. Or maybe not. Lurch is in Moscow pumpin' murderer torturer putin propaganda  & appears to love its internet slogging.

[litesong]

If indeed Kavenaugh did attempt to rape the woman  ...... Kavenaugh has already been caught in a couple of lies from his earlier testimony when he was nominated as a federal judge.

Ford has passed a lie detector test, & wants an FBI investigation. Kavenaugh has not offered to take a lie detector test or encourages an FBI investigation. He'll hide behind re-pubic-lick-un white men, who will char-broil Ford, after they put her on a testimony spit. 

[jacksmith4tx]

This is completely anecdotal but it could be a proxy for Republican turnout.

http://www.opensecrets.org/news/2018/09/nra-in-the-red-for-2nd-straight-year/

The National Rifle Association is traditionally one of the most powerful and financially intimidating interest groups in Washington. But a new third-party audit of the group’s finances obtained by OpenSecrets raises questions about its long-term fiscal health.

The document offers the first look at the NRA’s finances in the wake of the 2016 elections. It shows that for the last two years, the NRA saw plummeting income from dues-paying members, and that has, in turn, fueled growing deficits.

...

Just like the melting polar ice caps are a proxy from AGW this may show there are signs the hard core Trump base is loosing enthusiasm. Other GOP analysts have been sounding the alarm that the base is becoming complacent. It's a version of the old saying 'too much of a good thing' and it may be sapping the energy of the right wing. If the GOP reverts to their normal tactics we should see increased emphasis on immigration, racial division, and religious freedoms to stoke up fear and loathing.

[litesong]

Time to..... drive a few stragglers to the polls in November......Terry

We vote by mail & even the postage is free. Jes' hopin' lots of russians or re-pubic-lick-uns don't waylay U.S. postal trucks. Guess its easier to hack vote tabulators. But, russians & re-pubic-lick-uns are so good at heavy-handed tactics.

[Klondike Kat]

Time to..... drive a few stragglers to the polls in November......Terry

We vote by mail & even the postage is free. Jes' hopin' lots of russians or re-pubic-lick-uns don't waylay U.S. postal trucks. Guess its easier to hack vote tabulators. But, russians & re-pubic-lick-uns are so good at heavy-handed tactics.

Neither Russians nor illegals are waylaying our elections.  These are just propaganda played out by the major parties.

[litesong]

Neither Russians nor illegals(not re-pubic-lick-uns?) are waylaying our elections.  These are just propaganda played out by the major parties.

Blame dems, while re-pubic-lick-uns back "don'T rump". Murderer, torturer, perp putin's propaganda patrol pokes into websites & propagandizes better'n anybody. 
Anyhow, today Cohen is singing to Robert Mueller about "don'T rump, russian collusion & probably lots of tallies on "don'T rump" & russian billionaire white-washed illegal & stolen gains. My money is on the russian white-washed stolen money is what bailed "don'T rump" out of bankruptcy in the 90's. As I said elsewhere, Mueller's got all his ducks lined up in a row..... & he is a very good shot (5 straight convictions plus 3 or 4 other singers warbling harmony in the backgroud).
How's 'bout dat, Neven. No VEE-NAK-U-LER.

[Buddy]

The tide is REALLY starting to run against Kavanaugh.  If Trump wants to ram Kavanaugh through, his lemmings in Congress like Grassly and others will suffer a very steep price in November.  I still expect Trump to try and ram him through ..... Trumpn KNOWS he will need his vote.

Grassley and Hatch have now been caught in absolute lies.  The Republicans are starting to implode.  Remember, pressure kills.

[sidd]

Re: Grassley, Hatch, elections 2018

Grassley don have to run till 2022. Hatch is retiring.

sidd