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Author Topic: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election  (Read 40074 times)

SteveMDFP

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #400 on: October 02, 2018, 04:31:35 AM »

During the time in question, Kavanaugh was a junior.  That fact was repeated several times.  It does not take a genius to figure out that the seniors were a year older.  That omission is hardly a lie.  You are stretching thinner and thinner.

I just listened to Kav's testimony for the third or fourth time.  No, he said that when he was in high school, it was legal for seniors to drink.  This implies it was legal for him to drink when he was a senior.  False. Pure obfuscation.  He didn't have a legal drink in Maryland until he was 21.

mostly_lurking

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #401 on: October 02, 2018, 07:55:23 AM »
The tide is REALLY starting to run against Kavanaugh. 
Where have you seen anything that shows that trend?
Ah....."mostly lurking" is mostly lurking around FOX.... moistly, too.

Only way to see both sides is to watch both sides. Don't know how this will end but we'll get the answer very soon in Nov.

mostly_lurking

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #402 on: October 02, 2018, 09:58:08 AM »
Question:  The FBI did 5-6 background investigations on Kav each step up he has gone. I understand they could miss a one time event like the Ford one that happened in high school. How the heck could they miss EVERYTHING that's coming out now??  Drinking problem (violence?), multiple sexual assault including in collage, gang rape,abuse of all sorts.

Is the FBI totally incompetent? If this stuff turns out to be true heads should roll at the FBI.

mostly_lurking

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #403 on: October 02, 2018, 10:39:07 AM »
Question:  The FBI did 5-6 background investigations on Kav each step up he has gone. I understand they could miss a one time event like the Ford one that happened in high school. How the heck could they miss EVERYTHING that's coming out now??  Drinking problem (violence?), multiple sexual assault including in collage, gang rape,abuse of all sorts.

Is the FBI totally incompetent? If this stuff turns out to be true heads should roll at the FBI.

It mentioned in the senate doc ref'd by wili, the initial FBI Investigations only went back to 1992. I think answers your question well. All current accusations pre-date 1992.



If that is the case it's still incompetence. So now we have a situation where he was an angel after 1992 and a complete drunk violent sexual predator before that. Amazing.

TerryM

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #404 on: October 02, 2018, 11:46:08 AM »
Perhaps this is not the correct thread - but


Nothing in this procedure is designed to get at the truth. Both sides are hoping that public opinion will win the day.
The polls, however flawed, are the only source we have that purports to measure public opinion. 538 is an aggregation of polls and every side has referenced their charts at one time or another.


On September 12, Ford's accusations were publicly aired. On that date the Republicans held a 9.2% advantage over the Democrats - today the Republicans hold an 8.4 lead.
On September 12 among likely voters, Trump's disapproval numbers were 13.4% ahead of his approvals - today the number is 9.5%.


While Kavanaugh's possible sexual indiscretions as a teen have driven most other political discussion from the airwaves, the Democrats have dropped .8% in popularity and Trump's approvals have increased by a whopping 3.8%.


How much longer can Democrats afford to push on an issue that is not breaking their way?


I'd love to see the Republicans crushed in a Blue Tsunami this November. We can use an "October Surprise" - but focusing the media on BS stories about groping a cheerleader through her clothing and a bathing suit may not be message that Americans are willing to coalesce behind.


If the same amount of ink and airtime was spent explaining how electing Democrats will get us back on track to fight Global Warming, the polls might begin to sway in our direction.


We're running out of time.
Terry

mostly_lurking

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #405 on: October 02, 2018, 12:22:43 PM »
Perhaps this is not the correct thread - but

Terry

This thread has been hijacked for this subject but does have a direct connection

I agree that for now it seems this isn't hurting the GOP at all- maybe the opposite (other people here have a different "blue wave view")

In the end it will be decided how this turns out. Real concrete evidence against Kav will force him out and will hurt the GOP badly.  A good turnout for Kav (concrete evidence supporting his claims) and the Dems will bleed this Nov. Anything in between (inconclusive but he is voted in anyway) and it's a hard call but I would say slight advantage to the GOP candidates.

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #406 on: October 02, 2018, 01:37:05 PM »
Perhaps this is not the correct thread - but


Nothing in this procedure is designed to get at the truth. Both sides are hoping that public opinion will win the day.
The polls, however flawed, are the only source we have that purports to measure public opinion. 538 is an aggregation of polls and every side has referenced their charts at one time or another.


On September 12, Ford's accusations were publicly aired. On that date the Republicans held a 9.2% advantage over the Democrats - today the Republicans hold an 8.4 lead.
On September 12 among likely voters, Trump's disapproval numbers were 13.4% ahead of his approvals - today the number is 9.5%.


While Kavanaugh's possible sexual indiscretions as a teen have driven most other political discussion from the airwaves, the Democrats have dropped .8% in popularity and Trump's approvals have increased by a whopping 3.8%.


How much longer can Democrats afford to push on an issue that is not breaking their way?


I'd love to see the Republicans crushed in a Blue Tsunami this November. We can use an "October Surprise" - but focusing the media on BS stories about groping a cheerleader through her clothing and a bathing suit may not be message that Americans are willing to coalesce behind.


If the same amount of ink and airtime was spent explaining how electing Democrats will get us back on track to fight Global Warming, the polls might begin to sway in our direction.


We're running out of time.
Terry

Over the past week, the Democrats advantage has fallen to above 7.5%, which is about what the average for the past several months has been.  The slight uptick to 9 appears to be short-lived.
 Trump's numbers also show a short-term anomaly, when his unfavorability spiked to 13.  His current 8% disapproval over approval seems to be more the trend.  The pundits seem to think that the Democrats need a generic 8% advantage to retake the House.  That is still possible, and 538 gives them a 75% chance of doing so.  The possibility of a Senate takeover appear to be shrinking.  538 has the Republicans with an almost 75% chance of retaining the Senate, but the latest polls show that may be an understatement.  The most recent ND poll shows Heitkamp trailing Cramer by 10%.  The only other poll conducted since spring had her trailing by 4%.  Not looking good for her.  NJ is getting interesting also.  May thought that Menendez would weather the storm after the mistrial in his corruption case, but the polls are suggesting otherwise.  Polls conducted over the summer show his lead ranging between 2 and 6%.  If the Republicans take ND and hold TX, they only need one of NJ, FL, MO, AZ, NV, IN, or TN to hold the Senate.  I think 538 is being overly optimistic about the Democrats chances in the Senate (they rate FL as >60% Democrat, while the result polls show a dead heat). 

Jim Pettit

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #407 on: October 02, 2018, 01:54:11 PM »
Nothing in this procedure is designed to get at the truth. Both sides are hoping that public opinion will win the day... On September 12, Ford's accusations were publicly aired. On that date the Republicans held a 9.2% advantage over the Democrats - today the Republicans hold an 8.4 lead. On September 12 among likely voters, Trump's disapproval numbers were 13.4% ahead of his approvals - today the number is 9.5%.
Meh. Anyone familiar with the science behind polling knows that day-to-day and week-to-week numbers fluctuate, sometimes wildly. As with temperature and Arctic sea ice, the trend is the important thing--and both Trump's and the GOP's numbers have been trending downward for months.

While Kavanaugh's possible sexual indiscretions as a teen have driven most other political discussion from the airwaves, the Democrats have dropped .8% in popularity and Trump's approvals have increased by a whopping 3.8%.
Anyone who dismisses or downplays the issue as Kavanaugh's "possible sexual indiscretions as a teen" should maybe stay out of the conversation. Rape and assault aren't "sexual indiscretions"; they're abuses of power and privilege. And Kavanaugh wasn't some dewy-faced 14-year-old with peach fuzz and raging hormones; he was an upperclassman at Yale, who knew better than to do what he did and acted as he acted. And he has lied about it. Multiple times.

I'd love to see the Republicans crushed in a Blue Tsunami this November. We can use an "October Surprise" - but focusing the media on BS stories about groping a cheerleader through her clothing and a bathing suit may not be message that Americans are willing to coalesce behind.
Again: anyone who dismisses or downplays the issue as a "BS story about groping a cheerleader through her clothing" should maybe stay out of the conversation. Americans overwhelmingly don't want or need a proven liar with a rage-drinking problem, a history of sexual assault, and spoken grudges against both Democrats in general and non-submissive women in particular handed a lifetime appointment to one of the most powerful positions in the nation. Period.

But as always, your "concern" is noted.

SteveMDFP

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #408 on: October 02, 2018, 02:36:58 PM »

If that is the case it's still incompetence. So now we have a situation where he was an angel after 1992 and a complete drunk violent sexual predator before that. Amazing.

All the accounts are about his behavior while drunk.  The last, I think, a bar room brawl during his college years, police were called, his name is in the report.  Started by Kavanaugh throwing his drink in someone's face.   

He would seem to have gotten his drinking under control after college.  It's quite plausible he remembers little of what he did while drunk. 

I was told once that a substantial portion of people in prison are there for crimes committed but not remembered, due to intoxication.

mostly_lurking

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #409 on: October 02, 2018, 02:50:53 PM »
Meh. Anyone familiar with the science behind polling knows that day-to-day and week-to-week numbers fluctuate, sometimes wildly. As with temperature and Arctic sea ice, the trend is the important thing--and both Trump's and the GOP's numbers have been trending downward for months.


I haven't seen that anywhere. Trump's approval has been quite steady for many months at 42-44 approval with a small short term recent dip(and recovery) with no real explanation (maybe timing of a few outlier polls)

SteveMDFP

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #410 on: October 02, 2018, 03:03:44 PM »
Meh. Anyone familiar with the science behind polling knows that day-to-day and week-to-week numbers fluctuate, sometimes wildly. As with temperature and Arctic sea ice, the trend is the important thing--and both Trump's and the GOP's numbers have been trending downward for months.


I haven't seen that anywhere. Trump's approval has been quite steady for many months at 42-44 approval with a small short term recent dip(and recovery) with no real explanation (maybe timing of a few outlier polls)

Trump's approval/disapproval ratings are pretty stable, according to 538.com.  But at this stage, the important opinion polls are about the upcoming Congressional races.  There does seem to be a slow, steady  trend of improving chances for the Dems:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo

RikW

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #411 on: October 02, 2018, 03:33:15 PM »
As a non-US-person, what happens if Democrats win Senate or House, will it be difficult to pass laws?

And if democrats win both of them?

SteveMDFP

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #412 on: October 02, 2018, 03:42:24 PM »
As a non-US-person, what happens if Democrats win Senate or House, will it be difficult to pass laws?

And if democrats win both of them?

Well, the worst Republican laws won't be passed.  But no, Trump has veto power for legislation.  And both houses must pass a bill for it to go to the President's desk.  And for most legislation, 1/3 of the Senate can filibuster, effectively a veto.

Still, legislative gridlock is better than being on an express train to perdition.

mostly_lurking

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #413 on: October 02, 2018, 04:18:49 PM »

Trump's approval/disapproval ratings are pretty stable, according to 538.com.  But at this stage, the important opinion polls are about the upcoming Congressional races.  There does seem to be a slow, steady  trend of improving chances for the Dems:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo

The problem with most of these polls is that the total of both sides is not 100%. In this specific aggregate we have a total of 90% and most others are the same. Where are those other 10% going? In the current atmosphere I would say many are GOP or Trump supporters that aren't sure or don't want to be in polls.

SteveMDFP

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #414 on: October 02, 2018, 05:23:20 PM »

Trump's approval/disapproval ratings are pretty stable, according to 538.com.  But at this stage, the important opinion polls are about the upcoming Congressional races.  There does seem to be a slow, steady  trend of improving chances for the Dems:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo

The problem with most of these polls is that the total of both sides is not 100%. In this specific aggregate we have a total of 90% and most others are the same. Where are those other 10% going? In the current atmosphere I would say many are GOP or Trump supporters that aren't sure or don't want to be in polls.

Reasonable possibility, yes.   But as I go about my day to day life, I'm continually shocked by the number of people who seem to have no awareness of political happenings.  I'm more surprised that the total of the polls is anywhere 90% of people having *any* opinion.

Lots of these undecided people don't vote.  Some vote out of a sense of civic obligation.  Of these unaware voters, I think many choose based on the last things they've heard.  Unfortunately for the US, the media keep playing Trumps words and tweets.  For folks who don't closely follow the news, much of what he says may seem superficially compelling.  It's a disturbing situation.

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #415 on: October 02, 2018, 05:28:31 PM »
Hopefully, the FBI probe will identify inconsistencies between Kavanaugh's sworn testimony and FBI substantiated evidence.  If so this would be a major blow to the GOP's prospects in the midterms, and it would likely mean that they cannot deliver a right-wing judge to the SCOTUS:

Title: "Kavanaugh's testimony is starting to look more and more problematic"

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/kavanaugh-s-testimony-starting-look-more-more-problematic-n915771

Extract: "Two reports last night — from NBC News and the New York Times — appear to contradict some of Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh’s testimony to the Senate Judiciary Committee from last week."
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Klondike Kat

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #416 on: October 02, 2018, 05:53:12 PM »
Hopefully, the FBI probe will identify inconsistencies between Kavanaugh's sworn testimony and FBI substantiated evidence.  If so this would be a major blow to the GOP's prospects in the midterms, and it would likely mean that they cannot deliver a right-wing judge to the SCOTUS:

Title: "Kavanaugh's testimony is starting to look more and more problematic"

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/kavanaugh-s-testimony-starting-look-more-more-problematic-n915771

Extract: "Two reports last night — from NBC News and the New York Times — appear to contradict some of Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh’s testimony to the Senate Judiciary Committee from last week."

Hopefully, the FBI will identify the truth - whatever that is.

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #417 on: October 02, 2018, 05:59:08 PM »
Traitor Trump is going to be campaigning in Mississippi.  Think about that for a minute.  Trump has to campaign in one of the darkest red states in the country for the midterm election ... to save a senate seat that SHOULD be a cakewalk in any other year.  Kind of like Alabama .... and if you remember, the Democrat’s were able to win Alabama in their special election.

Mississippi is also having a special election for one of their senate seats due to the health of the current Republican holder of that seat.  So ..... there are 2 Republicans and 2 Democrats on the ballot November 6th ..... and none of them will be denoted by an “R” or a “D” on the ballot.

If one of the 4 gets more than 50% of the vote .... then he/she is the elected senator.  If none of the candidates get 50%, then there will be a runoff election on November 27th.  So it is POSSIBLE that we might not know who controls the Senate until after a November 27th runoff election in Mississippi.

To be sure ..... this is a long shot, and the Republicans are picked to win in Mississippi ... but they were picked to win in Alabama ..... and that didn’t work out for them.

This is one of several races to keep an eye on in the last 5 weeks.  If the Democrat’s can take Florida and Texas ..... ANYTHING can happen.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #418 on: October 02, 2018, 07:36:21 PM »
Donald Trump and Mitch McConnell are about to learn what Jeff Flake is made of.  If the FBI investigation is extended on Flakes demand, then it is possible that Trump will be forced to withdraw Kavanaugh's nomination without a vote in order to avoid serious damage to the GOP in the midterms:

Title: "How Jeff Flake Is Controlling the Kavanaugh Confirmation Process"

https://www.politicususa.com/2018/10/02/how-jeff-flake-is-controlling-the-kavanaugh-confirmation-process.html

Extract: "Senator Jeff Flake of Arizona is now in charge of Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the U.S. Supreme Court, and he knows it.

Flake knows that Donald Trump and Mitch McConnell need his vote in favor of Kavanaugh. He knows that if he votes “no” then Senators Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski are likely to vote “no” also and Kavanaugh’s nomination will never be approved.

Due to Flake’s insistence, the White House made a big deal of announcing yesterday that the FBI was not to be limited in its investigation. The only restriction, according to Trump, is that he wanted it all done within one week.

And then yesterday, in an interview with John Heilemann from MSNBC, Flake once again asserted his power, implying that one week might not be long enough to get at the truth.

On Sunday night Flake was on the CBS show “60 Minutes” doing an interview along with his friend Democratic Senator Chris Coons of Delaware.

Flake, along with Coons, made very clear that if Kavanaugh were found by the FBI to have lied under oath, it would be a disqualifier and his nomination would be “over.”

In the MSNBC interview Heilemann gave evidence to Flake that there were already many documented instances where Kavanaugh had lied to the Senate. He asked the senator what he thought about that, and Flake replied: “If that’s true, then that’s a problem.”

This means that if Flake is a man of his word, Kavanaugh’s approval by the Senate is in serious doubt even before the FBI concludes its work.

But what if the FBI has not concluded its work by the end of the week? According to the MSNBC analyst, Flake has left the door open to going back to Trump and McConnell and demanding more time.

An extension for the FBI would be a great thing for Democrats but could spell disaster for Republicans.

It would provide the following significant benefits for Kavanaugh opponents:

1.   It would give the FBI more time it needs to document and substantiate all of the many allegations against Kavanaugh.
2.   It would provide additional time for more people to step forward with more accusations of lying and sexual misconduct.
3.   It would give more time to investigative journalists and the media to come up with additional scandals that would harm Kavanaugh.
4.   It would give more time for the public to get derogatory information which would make it more likely to oppose the Kavanaugh nomination."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #419 on: October 03, 2018, 12:44:08 AM »
I hope that the FBI is not doing a slipshod job in investigating Kavanaugh:

Title: "Ford still seeking FBI interview"

https://www.axios.com/ford-still-seeking-fbi-interview-1538516421-9f6ea164-e054-417a-8908-ed78f708c746.html

Extract: "Christine Blasey Ford's lawyers wrote to the FBI today saying they still haven't been contacted by investigators and that it is "inconceivable" the bureau would not interview her as part of their investigation of Brett Kavanaugh.

Why it matters: The investigation into Ford's allegations of sexual assault reportedly may be completed as early as tomorrow with Senate votes later this week."
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mostly_lurking

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #420 on: October 03, 2018, 08:07:34 AM »
At the same time as all the stuff you have written up there...  Fords testimony is being attacked for multiple perjury instances. One of her ex boyfriend has said in written statement

Quote
In a written declaration released Tuesday and obtained by Fox News, an ex-boyfriend of Christine Blasey Ford, the California professor accusing Brett Kavanaugh of sexual assault, directly contradicts her testimony under oath last week that she had never helped anyone prepare for a polygraph examination.

The former boyfriend, whose name was redacted in the declaration, also said Ford neither mentioned Kavanaugh nor said she was a victim of sexual misconduct during the time they were dating from about 1992 to 1998. He said he saw Ford helping a woman he believed was her "life-long best friend" prepare for a potential polygraph test. He added that the woman had been interviewing for jobs with the FBI and U.S. Attorney's office.

He also claimed Ford never voiced any fear of flying (even while aboard a propeller plane) and seemingly had no problem living in a small, 500 sq. ft. apartment with one door -- apparently contradicting her claims that she could not testify promptly in D.C. because she felt uncomfortable traveling on planes, as well as her suggestion that her memories of Kavanuagh's alleged assault prompted her to feel unsafe living in a closed space or one without a second front door.

Ford "never expressed a fear of closed quarters, tight spaces, or places with only one exit," the former boyfriend wrote. On Thursday, Ford testified, "I was hoping to avoid getting on an airplane. But I eventually was able to get up the gumption with the help of some friends and get on the plane." She also acknowledged regularly -- and, in her words, "unfortunately" -- traveling on planes for work and hobbies.


It seems the more one digs the more comes up. EVERYONE is lying at some level.

edit:
I also see that Feinstein is asking that the new FBI investigation not go public. Strange.

oren

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #421 on: October 03, 2018, 09:28:16 AM »
Thank you Lurk for sharing this "post from the past". Very interesting (seriously).

mostly_lurking

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #422 on: October 03, 2018, 10:59:24 AM »
Thank you Lurk for sharing this "post from the past". Very interesting (seriously).

Agree 100%

As far as Ford. I don't buy into "she is a democratic plant" and it's all made up.
There is no doubt she is a #nevertrumper.  If this happened to her (or mistaken identity) she would have motive to come out and try to harm him but pretty sure she wasn't really expecting this to get so far out of hand. She was quite naive in thinking her original letter would stay private and would be enough.
« Last Edit: October 03, 2018, 04:16:41 PM by mostly_lurking »

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #423 on: October 03, 2018, 05:03:22 PM »
Hopefully, Jeff, Susan and Lisa do not accept a slipshod FBI investigation, and either demand an extended investigation, or vote no on Kavanaugh's comfirmation:

Title: "FBI has not contacted dozens of potential sources in Kavanaugh investigation"

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/dozens-potential-sources-information-have-not-been-contacted-fbi-kavanaugh-n916146

Extract: "More than 40 people with potential information into the sexual misconduct allegations against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh have not been contacted by the FBI, according to multiple sources that include friends of both the nominee and his accusers.

The bureau is expected to wrap up its expanded background investigation as early as Wednesday into two allegations against Kavanaugh — one from Christine Blasey Ford and the other from Deborah Ramirez.

But sources close to the investigation, as well as a number of people who know those involved, say the FBI has not contacted dozens of potential corroborators or character witnesses."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #424 on: October 03, 2018, 05:40:02 PM »
Attached is a redacted official statement that corroborates many of Swetnick's statements; which the FBI should investigate:
« Last Edit: October 03, 2018, 05:45:03 PM by AbruptSLR »
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mostly_lurking

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #425 on: October 03, 2018, 06:21:25 PM »
Wow  - 20 parties!! Swetnick only did 10 !    Way to go !
 ::)

mostly_lurking

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #426 on: October 03, 2018, 06:30:19 PM »
Swetnick herself already walked back quite a bit of what she previously said:

Quote
“Well I saw—I saw him giving red solo cups to quite a few girls during that time frame, and there was grain punch at those parties,” Swetnick said. “I saw him around the punch—I won’t say bowls, the punch containers. I don’t know what he did, but I saw him by them.”

As for the claims about “trains” of boys lining up outside rooms to rape girls, she said she saw Kavanaugh and Judge “huddled by doors.” When asked if she was suggesting she thought Kavanaugh was involved, she answered: “I would say yes, it’s just too coincidental.” She did not offer further details to support her original claim that he was waiting for his “turn.”


Originally she said he did spike the punch and that he participated in the train gang rapes.
Now...?  Not so much.


Jeez, will this ever end?



AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #427 on: October 03, 2018, 07:21:30 PM »
Evidence that Kavanaugh is likely the 'Bart' in Judge's book:

Title: "New York Times: Kavanaugh called himself and his friends 'loud, obnoxious drunks' in 1983 letter -- and signed it 'Bart'"

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/02/politics/brett-kavanaugh-letter/index.html

Extract: "Also of note, Kavanaugh signs the letter "Bart" -- a name which has previously come up as a possible reference to Kavanaugh in his former classmate Mark Judge's book, where he writes about "Bart O'Kavanaugh."

Kavanaugh was asked about the reference to "Bart" in Judge's book during his questioning by the Senate Judiciary Committee last week.

Sen. Patrick Leahy, a Democrat from Vermont, and Kavanaugh went back and forth about the reference, but Kavanaugh appeared to avoid directly answering the question.
"Judge Kavanaugh, I'm trying to get a straight answer from you under oath," Leahy said. He then proceeded to ask Kavanaugh if he was Bart, "yes or no?"

Kavanaugh responded: "You'd have to ask him" -- meaning Judge."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #428 on: October 03, 2018, 07:49:10 PM »
It will be interesting to see whether the FBI maintains their integrity during their investigation of Kavanaugh, or whether a potentially Democrat-controlled house committee (with subpoena power) of Congress will be forced to investigate this matter in 2019:

Title: "“The F.B.I. Is Not Going to Be Donald Trump’s Patsy”: How the Kavanaugh Probe Could Test Christopher Wray"

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/10/how-the-kavanaugh-probe-could-test-fbi-christopher-wray

Extract: "Tasked with an investigation with an impossible deadline, in which both the White House and Senate Republicans are ready to load the dice, the F.B.I. director, a Trump appointee, is already taking steps to defend his bureau.

“I could very well see this becoming a test of Chris Wray’s integrity,” says Robert Anderson, a former F.B.I. executive assistant director. “Not because of what these interviews find or don’t find. The agents will do a great job of whatever they are allowed to do. But at the end of the week, if there are unanswered questions, will the director push to do more?”

“If the White House is directing this in a manner inconsistent with how we normally do our cases, and agents aren’t allowed to follow logical leads,” says Carlos T. Fernandez, a former top anti-terrorism official, “from what I know of Director Wray, he would be the kind of person to resign.”

Short of quitting, Wray could find himself facing a Comey moment: whether to issue a public statement characterizing the end of the investigation. Yet he seems to be savvily attempting to head off that kind of crisis, while shoring up the bureau’s credibility, and giving it more freedom to examine Kavanaugh's past. “It’s not accidental that the details of the restrictions on the F.B.I. all leaked out within 24 hours of the investigation beginning,” says Matthew Miller, a Justice Department spokesman under former attorney general Eric Holder. “After 18 months of the president attacking or undermining the F.B.I. at every turn, Trump now wants to use it as a public stamp of approval for Kavanaugh, when he won’t let it conduct a real investigation. The F.B.I. can read the political tea leaves, and they know there’s likely to be at least one house of Congress where the Democrats have subpoena power next year. They will make sure there’s a very clear written record that if this investigation wasn’t complete, it was because they weren’t allowed to make it complete. They’re not stupid. And the F.B.I. is not going to be Donald Trump’s patsy.”
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #429 on: October 03, 2018, 08:09:11 PM »
30 + days till midterm election .....  Commit yourself to talk with neighbors and co-workers.  GET OUT AND VOTE. 

1). Who is looking out for the WORKING CLASS instead of the 1%?

2). Who is looking out for women’s rights?

3). Who is looking out for our healthcare?

4). Who wants reasonable gun control?

30 + days and counting .... time to sprint.
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #430 on: October 04, 2018, 02:09:18 AM »
538 now has the Republicans within 8 points of the Democrats - a gain of 1.2 points from where they were on September 12 when Ford's accusations made the news.


Trump's approvals have increased 2 points over the same 3 week period.


With the gerrymandering advantage that Republicans are generally conceded to have, this could come down to a squeaker where few seats change hands.


In the last 21 midterm elections the sitting President's party has lost an average of 30 seats. All we need to take control is 25.


Since WWII
Truman lost 45 seats
Ike lost 18
Kennedy lost 4
LBJ lost 47
Nixon lost 12
Ford lost 48
Carter lost 15
Reagan lost 26
Bush 1st lost 8
Clinton lost 52
Bush 2 GAINED 8
Obama lost 63
in their respective 1st term midterms.


Bush the Younger was the only President whose party gained seats. (Wartime President)?
In these 12 midterm elections 6 times the President's Party lost more than the 25 seats that we need.
The best showing was the Republicans under Bush with +8 the worst was the Democrats under Obama with -63.


With less than 5 weeks left why not talk about the EPA, Coal, and the Paris Accord - and how a vote for Democrats can make a difference.
Terry

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #431 on: October 04, 2018, 04:05:18 AM »
Hopefully, Flake, Collins and Murkowski will decline to vote until the FBI have completed an unbiased investigation, and I believe that the FBI investigation would be biased without interviewing Ford:

Title: "‘It’s Disappointing’: Grassley Responds to Latest Request from Christine Ford’s Lawyers"

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/‘it’s-disappointing’-grassley-responds-to-latest-request-from-christine-ford’s-lawyers/ar-BBNTHKa?ocid=spartandhp

Extract: "The legal team for Dr. Christine Blasey Ford on Wednesday shot down the Senate Judiciary Committee’s request to turn over evidence related to Ford’s therapy sessions and the polygraph test she took, saying that the FBI has not contacted them for an interview. Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, has already issued a response.

Earlier in the day, Ford attorneys Debra Katz and Lisa Banks said the following in a letter to Grassley: “Regarding the documents you have requested in your letter of October 2, 2018, Dr. Ford is prepared to provide those documents to the FBI when is interviewed.


“We have not yet heard from the FBI about scheduling an interview with her,” they added. ”
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #432 on: October 04, 2018, 04:57:46 AM »
If you're not willing to believe the FBI, say so.


I've never had any faith in them. They were effective as a Death Squad back in the 30's when they bragged of their prowess at machine gunning their quarry, rather than arresting suspects. Hoover did provided humor while he was diligently searching for homosexuals in the White house, but I've never found their investigations to be credible & I won't have any faith in whatever they report this time - regardless of how long they spend on it.


It's going to be decided by perceptions, not facts.
Terry

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #433 on: October 04, 2018, 05:54:23 PM »
Hopefully, at least both Sasse and Flake vote no on the confirmation of Kavanaugh:

Title: "Republican Sen. Ben Sasse drops a bombshell on the debate over Brett Kavanaugh's nomination to the Supreme Court"

https://www.businessinsider.com/republican-ben-sasse-on-brett-kavanaugh-trump-should-nominate-someone-else-2018-10

Extract: "
•   Republican Sen. Ben Sasse of Nebraska gave an impassioned speech Wednesday night on the Senate floor about sexual assault and the #MeToo movement.
•   Sasse also dropped a bombshell about where he stood on Brett Kavanaugh's nomination to the Supreme Court, saying he preferred a different candidate when Trump chose Kavanaugh.
•   He recounted the experiences of two friends he said were raped, adding that the #MeToo movement had been "complicated" but also a "very good thing."
•   Then Sasse turned back to Trump. "We all know that the president cannot lead us through this time," he said."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #434 on: October 04, 2018, 05:58:03 PM »
If you're not willing to believe the FBI, say so.


I've never had any faith in them. They were effective as a Death Squad back in the 30's when they bragged of their prowess at machine gunning their quarry, rather than arresting suspects. Hoover did provided humor while he was diligently searching for homosexuals in the White house, but I've never found their investigations to be credible & I won't have any faith in whatever they report this time - regardless of how long they spend on it.


It's going to be decided by perceptions, not facts.
Terry

I believe that it is a fact that the FBI investigation was incomplete and rigged by the GOP.  That said, I believe that the FBI is capable of running unbiased investigations, when they are not influenced by outside forces (like Trump & McConnell).

Edit: Furthermore, in an unbiased world, the FBI report would highlight the numerous cases where Kavanaugh perjured himself in his sworn testimony before the Senate.  We will see how the vote goes on Friday (as the FBI report is confidential & I do not know what it contains).
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #435 on: October 04, 2018, 06:30:33 PM »
Hopefully, key GOP Senators (like Flake, Sasse, Collins and Murkowski) see that there is so much dirt on Kavanaugh, that they vote no in order to avoid the Democrats using Kavanaugh's dirt against the GOP in the midterms:

Title: "Senate Democrats suggest past FBI probes found evidence of Kavanaugh misconduct"

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/senate-democrats-suggest-past-fbi-probes-found-evidence-of-kavanaugh-misconduct/

Extract: "Eight Democrats on the Senate Judiciary Committee sent a letter to Republicans members on Wednesday suggesting that past FBI investigations into Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh's background may have included information about allegations of "inappropriate sexual behavior or alcohol abuse," a charge that Republicans quickly denied."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #436 on: October 04, 2018, 07:07:00 PM »
In the past, Americans had respect for professional opinions.  If GOP Senators want to Make America Great Again, they can begin by rejecting Kavanaugh & then resist Trump's dumbing-down of US governance and politics:

Title: "More than 1,700 law professors urge senators to reject Kavanaugh"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/03/kavanaugh-confirmation-temperament-law-professors-868125

Extract: "The letter concludes: “We have differing views about the other qualifications of Judge Kavanaugh. But we are united, as professors of law and scholars of judicial institutions, in believing that he did not display the impartiality and judicial temperament requisite to sit on the highest court of our land.”

That number jumped to more than 1,700 as of Thursday morning.

Professors from a number of top law schools signed the letter, including more than a dozen from Harvard, where Kavanaugh previously taught for a decade. There are also roughly a dozen signers from Yale Law School, Kavanaugh’s alma mater. The Times promises to add more signatures as they are submitted."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #437 on: October 04, 2018, 07:29:03 PM »
Hopefully, key GOP Senators (like Flake, Sasse, Collins and Murkowski) see that there is so much dirt on Kavanaugh, that they vote no in order to avoid the Democrats using Kavanaugh's dirt against the GOP in the midterms:

Title: "Senate Democrats suggest past FBI probes found evidence of Kavanaugh misconduct"

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/senate-democrats-suggest-past-fbi-probes-found-evidence-of-kavanaugh-misconduct/

Extract: "Eight Democrats on the Senate Judiciary Committee sent a letter to Republicans members on Wednesday suggesting that past FBI investigations into Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh's background may have included information about allegations of "inappropriate sexual behavior or alcohol abuse," a charge that Republicans quickly denied."

Newsweek is reporting that Collins and Flake are likely yes votes, giving him the 50 votes necessary (plus VP tie-breaker) to assure confirmation.  Three other Senators have not yet committed; Manchin will likely vote no, but Heitkamp may vote yes in an attempt to win over conservative voters in ND (a no vote may doom her campaign).  That leaves Murkowski. 

https://www.newsweek.com/brett-kavanaugh-vote-count-confirmed-nominee-1153317

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #438 on: October 04, 2018, 09:25:50 PM »
A proper FBI investigation would have interviewed such accounts:

Title: "Kavanaugh Yale suitemate heard about the incident Ramirez described within days of its occurrence"

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/10/3/1801370/-Kavanaugh-Yale-suitemate-heard-about-the-incident-Ramirez-described-within-days-of-its-occurrence

Extract: "The new report by Jane Mayer and Ronan Farrow has two accounts that corroborate the allegation of Deborah Ramirez:

But the sham investigation set up by Trump and Mitch McConnell prevented the FBI from interviewing either."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #439 on: October 04, 2018, 09:32:05 PM »
That leaves Murkowski. 

https://www.newsweek.com/brett-kavanaugh-vote-count-confirmed-nominee-1153317

Is Murkowski going to sell-out Alaska's native population?

Title: "Alaska's Murkowski faces conflicting pressures at home in Kavanaugh debate"

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-kavanaugh-murkowski/alaskas-murkowski-faces-conflicting-pressures-at-home-in-kavanaugh-debate-idUSKCN1MD2PR

Extract: "On the other hand, the Alaska Federation of Natives, the state’s largest indigenous organization and one of Murkowski’s most powerful supporters, condemned the nomination. Alaska Natives, who make up about 15 percent of the state’s population, have expressed concern that Kavanaugh’s court decisions reflect a willingness to erode indigenous and tribal rights.

Alaska Governor Bill Walker, an independent, and Lieutenant Governor Byron Mallott, a Democrat, have also called for Kavanaugh to be rejected, criticizing him on Alaska Native rights, healthcare and other issues."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #440 on: October 04, 2018, 10:05:44 PM »
Forbes believes that if the GOP-controlled Senate confirms Kavanaugh, they will damage both the integrity of the SCOTUS and the rule of law itself:

Title: "The Kavanaugh Nomination Careens From Crisis Towards Calamity"


https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevedenning/2018/10/04/the-kavanaugh-nomination-careens-from-crisis-towards-calamity/#759326854490

Extract: "If on the other hand, Judge Cavanaugh is confirmed

Most seriously, by confirming a justice whom most law professors deem disqualified for the appointment, the Republican leadership will have gravely damaged two of the cornerstones of the nation: the authenticity and integrity of the Supreme Court and the rule of law itself."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #441 on: October 04, 2018, 10:34:16 PM »
Quote
Forbes believes that if the GOP-controlled Senate confirms Kavanaugh, they will damage both the integrity of the SCOTUS and the rule of law itself:

Yea .... but Forbes is that "far left, pro socialist, anti-business magazine" ......  ;) ;)

When Kavanaugh's WIFE turns against him for the nomination I'm throwing a red flag for "piling on."  :)

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #442 on: October 04, 2018, 11:41:10 PM »
If the GOP has enough votes to confirm, without Murkowski, then she can stand her ground and vote against.  It could be a win-win for the GOP.  I suspect Heidcamp might vote to confirm as a desperate effort to save her seat.

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #443 on: October 04, 2018, 11:48:09 PM »
When the DNC gave the green light for Democrats to vote for Kavanaugh, they came very close to guaranteeing that a far right Supreme Court would rule for a very long time.


If it's a Dem who casts the deciding vote for Kavanaugh, it's time to break out the tar and feathers.
Terry

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #444 on: October 05, 2018, 12:50:22 AM »

If it's a Dem who casts the deciding vote for Kavanaugh, it's time to break out the tar and feathers.
Terry

I'll donate my down pillow for that.

TerryM

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #445 on: October 05, 2018, 01:21:31 AM »

If it's a Dem who casts the deciding vote for Kavanaugh, it's time to break out the tar and feathers.
Terry

I'll donate my down pillow for that.
I'd supply the tar, but someone would notice the sand in the mix and insist it was all a foreign plot. :)
Terry

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #446 on: October 05, 2018, 01:48:51 AM »
Apparently I'm not the only one that has little regard for the FBI's capabilities. USA Today, in a sudden burst of Alt-Right passion, notes just a few of the more recent, more egregious screw-ups by the Top Cops.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2018/10/02/brett-kavanaugh-investigation-fbi-history-bias-mistakes-column/1488099002/

Personally I think the hair of the dog story is a stand out, but we haven't heard Mueller's conclusions as of yet.

NO - You can't borrow the Mounties.
Terry

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #447 on: October 05, 2018, 02:11:08 AM »
The problem is that the Democratic Senators were holding out for an FBI investigation.  Now that the Republicans called their bluff, they are out of cards.  Calling the investigation a sham (which it was), only appears as sour grapes.  The bounce the Democrats received two weeks ago, when the allegations first were announced, has evaporated, and may turn out to be a net negative.

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #448 on: October 05, 2018, 02:15:49 AM »
Twelve more updates to Sabato’s Crystal Ball today.  Eleven House updates and 1 Senate update.  How many of those moved in the direction of the Republicans you ask?

ZIPPO.....NADA.....NONE

ALL of the changes moved in the direction of the Democrat’s.

And with Heidi Heitcamp voting NO ..... and I believe Murkowski will also be a no .... that leaves it up to Flake OR Collins to vote (assuming Manchin votes no).  If Flake, Collins, and Murkowski all vote NO ... the Dem’s could lose Manchin and still vote down Kavanaugh.

I think there is a relatively good chance that Flake AND Collins vote NO (Maybe 55 - 60% chance).

Further ..... if Kavanaugh IS confirmed ... that is NOT going to be the end of it for Kavanaugh OR the Republicans.
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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #449 on: October 05, 2018, 03:48:38 AM »
The problem is that the Democratic Senators were holding out for an FBI investigation.  Now that the Republicans called their bluff, they are out of cards.  Calling the investigation a sham (which it was), only appears as sour grapes.  The bounce the Democrats received two weeks ago, when the allegations first were announced, has evaporated, and may turn out to be a net negative.

It ain't over 'til the fat lady sings.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson