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Author Topic: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election  (Read 40010 times)

Klondike Kat

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #600 on: November 02, 2018, 02:54:52 PM »
This could give Sinema up to a 6% boost in her fight for one of Arizona's Senate seats:

Title: "Sinema endorsed by Green Party Senate candidate"

https://www.12news.com/article/news/politics/sinema-endorsed-by-green-party-senate-candidate/75-0fd3f6c5-2792-4dfa-b48f-094598f6ba32

Extract: "The Green Party candidate, political newcomer Angela Green, has garnered up to 6 percent of the vote in recent polls. Polling averages show McSally and Sinema separated by a point or two."

While this will definitely not hurt her, I do not know how much it will help.  The only poll I saw that had her at 6% was the NBC poll, and when they dropped to a two-person race, only half of her supporters opted for Sinema?  The most recent FOX and CBS polls had her at 3%, while CNN and ABC had her at 1%.  Still, in a race this close, 1 or 2% may make a difference.

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #601 on: November 02, 2018, 05:12:05 PM »
Per my definition of a blue wave (a net change of at least 34 House seats), the linked Cook Political Report indicates that the Democrats are currently on track to realize this metric:

Title: "Cook Political Report changes a midterm projection — and it’s not good for Republicans"

https://www.theblaze.com/news/2018/10/31/cook-political-report-changes-a-midterm-projection-and-its-not-good-for-republicans

Extract: "“Based on the past week’s evidence, we’re revising our House outlook to a Dem gain of 30-40 seats (was 25-35 last month) at @CookPolitical,” Wasserman wrote. “This could change again before Tuesday.”"

I would call that a small wave, slightly more than a ripple.  A truly blue wave would involve gaining Senate seats, although that is becoming increasingly unlikely.

Let me remind posters here that last week Carl Bernstein (one of the heroes of Watergate) stated that: "I talked to people … in touch with the White House on Friday who believe that if the congressional midterms are very close and the Democrats were to win by five or seven seats, that Trump was already talking about how to throw legal challenges into the courts, sow confusion, declare a victory, actually, and say that the election's been illegitimate."  So my ten seat margin of control of the House has meaning with regards to reigning in Trump's Machiavellian plans:

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-2018-election-illegitimate-democrats-take-control-congress-carl-1181683
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Klondike Kat

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #602 on: November 02, 2018, 10:09:53 PM »
Per my definition of a blue wave (a net change of at least 34 House seats), the linked Cook Political Report indicates that the Democrats are currently on track to realize this metric:

Title: "Cook Political Report changes a midterm projection — and it’s not good for Republicans"

https://www.theblaze.com/news/2018/10/31/cook-political-report-changes-a-midterm-projection-and-its-not-good-for-republicans

Extract: "“Based on the past week’s evidence, we’re revising our House outlook to a Dem gain of 30-40 seats (was 25-35 last month) at @CookPolitical,” Wasserman wrote. “This could change again before Tuesday.”"

I would call that a small wave, slightly more than a ripple.  A truly blue wave would involve gaining Senate seats, although that is becoming increasingly unlikely.

Let me remind posters here that last week Carl Bernstein (one of the heroes of Watergate) stated that: "I talked to people … in touch with the White House on Friday who believe that if the congressional midterms are very close and the Democrats were to win by five or seven seats, that Trump was already talking about how to throw legal challenges into the courts, sow confusion, declare a victory, actually, and say that the election's been illegitimate."  So my ten seat margin of control of the House has meaning with regards to reigning in Trump's Machiavellian plans:

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-2018-election-illegitimate-democrats-take-control-congress-carl-1181683

Personally, I prefer not to spread this type of gossip.  This is more suitable for the tabloids.

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #603 on: November 03, 2018, 01:01:54 AM »
Personally, I prefer not to spread this type of gossip.  This is more suitable for the tabloids.

I think that Donald Trump's racist language is more suitable for the tabloids, rather than the words of a journalistic hero like Carl Bernstein:

Title: "Michael Cohen Says Trump Repeatedly Used Racist Language Before His Presidency"

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/11/michael-cohen-trump-racist-language

Extract: "As he awaits sentencing, Trump’s former lawyer says that he wants to clear his conscience and warn voters about what he sees as the president’s true nature in advance of the midterm elections."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #604 on: November 03, 2018, 01:14:08 AM »
Having the Senate Intelligence Committee investigating the NRA's Russian connections cannot be good news for GOP candidates in the midterms:

Title: "Senate Intelligence Wants Documents on NRA’s Russia Trip"

https://www.thedailybeast.com/senate-intelligence-wants-documents-on-nras-russia-trip?ref=home

Extract: "The Senate intelligence committee has asked the National Rifle Association to provide documents on its connections to Russia—including documents related to a 2015 trip some of its top leaders made to Moscow. That’s according to two sources briefed on the committee’s activities."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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litesong

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #605 on: November 03, 2018, 02:52:12 AM »
About 700 millennial candidates are running in the approximately 6,000 state legislative races.
•   Most are Democrats."
 "Young Americans signal record turnout for midterm elections, reject Trump and the GOP:

From another thread:
In this non-presidential mid-term election, to-date early voting is 29 million, as compared to 2014 to-date early voting non-presidential mid-term election participation of...... 16 million. Of the numerous contentious (& close) state races around the country, early voting participation by women far out-strip men. Georgia has women leading men in early voting by 12 %.
///////
Gloria Steinem said, "Hope is a form of planning".
//////
Republican John Warner said of "don'T rump", "He has no inner compass at all".
« Last Edit: November 03, 2018, 03:20:23 AM by litesong »

mostly_lurking

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #606 on: November 03, 2018, 10:03:34 AM »
..snip

Let me remind posters here that last week Carl Bernstein (one of the heroes of Watergate) stated that: "I talked to people … in touch with the White House on Friday who believe that if the congressional midterms are very close and the Democrats were to win by five or seven seats, that Trump was already talking about how to throw legal challenges into the courts, sow confusion, declare a victory, actually, and say that the election's been illegitimate." So my ten seat margin of control of the House has meaning with regards to reigning in Trump's Machiavellian plans:

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-2018-election-illegitimate-democrats-take-control-congress-carl-1181683

This sounds like a repeat of 2016. Look who declared the election not legitimate in the end. Hilarious. There is no doubt in my mind that if the Dem's do not win the house they WILL declare "problems" in the election once a again.

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #607 on: November 03, 2018, 03:22:15 PM »
This sounds like a repeat of 2016. Look who declared the election not legitimate in the end. Hilarious. There is no doubt in my mind that if the Dem's do not win the house they WILL declare "problems" in the election once a again.

Even after he won the 2016 presidential election, Trump created a voter fraud commission, likely in an attempt to suppress voting in 2018:

Title: "Trump's voter fraud commission appears to have gone dark"

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/11/03/trump-voter-fraud-election-commission-appears-have-gone-dark/827628001/
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

litesong

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #608 on: November 04, 2018, 04:33:50 AM »
In this non-presidential mid-term election, to-date early voting is 29 million, as compared to 2014 to-date early voting non-presidential mid-term election participation of...... 16 million. Of the numerous contentious (& close) state races around the country, early voting participation by women far out-strip men. Georgia has women leading men in early voting by 12 %.
Update: In this non-presidential mid-term election, to-date early voting is 39 million, as compared to 2014 to-date early voting non-presidential mid-term election participation of...... 22 million.
In one day, this year's to-date "extra" participation over 2014, jumped 4 million voters. Yeah, one day---- jumped from 13 million extra to 17 million extra voters.
More news:
Many tens of thousands of Puerto Rican American citizens moved to the U.S., after Hurricane Maria flattened the country.....& "don'T rump" turned his back on the U.S. territory. Many Puerto Ricans are living in closely contested states, like Florida..... & are voting now.   



AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #609 on: November 04, 2018, 07:45:49 AM »
The three most recent polls unanimously show that the Democrats will win control of the House:

Title: "Last minute midterm data unanimously shows Democrats winning the House"

https://www.axios.com/midterm-data-unanimously-shows-democrats-winning-the-house-be187a87-3dd9-4ad3-ac9c-16216cf3b9df.html

Extract: "The latest race ratings from the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball from the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, and FiveThirtyEight all show Democrats on the cusp of winning the House, with Republicans likely to hold the Senate (and even pick up a seat or two)."

see also:

Title: "The gender gap in 2018"

https://www.axios.com/the-gender-gap-in-2018-6004e17d-0943-43ae-88b7-e8e3b8793a03.html
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #610 on: November 04, 2018, 08:11:46 AM »
Today's FiveThirtyEight forecast gives the Democrats a 50-50 chance of gaining 38 seats:

Title: "Forecasting the race for the House"

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

mostly_lurking

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #611 on: November 04, 2018, 10:06:05 AM »
I can't wait till Tuesday at midnight when the results are flowing in. It might be as fun as 2016 !
(or I'll have to eat my hat and admit defeat of my beliefs.)

mostly_lurking

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #612 on: November 04, 2018, 10:13:59 AM »
This sounds like a repeat of 2016. Look who declared the election not legitimate in the end. Hilarious. There is no doubt in my mind that if the Dem's do not win the house they WILL declare "problems" in the election once a again.

Even after he won the 2016 presidential election, Trump created a voter fraud commission, likely in an attempt to suppress voting in 2018:

Title: "Trump's voter fraud commission appears to have gone dark"

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/11/03/trump-voter-fraud-election-commission-appears-have-gone-dark/827628001/

Where does that come from? Personal opinion?  It just as likely that he(or whoever) saw that it's a waste of time, that there wasn't the fraud he expected to find and just let it go.

Buddy

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #613 on: November 05, 2018, 02:47:09 PM »
Crunch time.  The Dem’s still have a very real, although slim, chance at taking back the Senate.

If we are to believe the 538 prognostication it requires the Dems to do the following:

1). Take the two “tossup states” of Arizona and Nevada

2). Take ONE of the “Likely Republican” states of Tennessee, Texas, and North Dakota.  I DONT include Mississippi in this group (although 538.com DOES).  Note that a poll out this am has Tennessee TIED (can you say Taylor Swift?).

3). Win the 4 states that are “Lean Democrat” of Indiana, Florida, Missouri, and Montana.

Clearly that is quite the “gauntlet” for the Dems to run ... and there are several states where they could likely be tripped up.  BUT .... there IS a possibility, as thin as it might be (15% according to 538.com).

Of the 3 states that the Dems have to steal ONE from ... as of this morning it looks like it would be Tennessee ..... followed by Texas ..... with North Dakota being the least likely.

“But you say there is a chance ......”
« Last Edit: November 05, 2018, 03:33:18 PM by Buddy »
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Klondike Kat

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #614 on: November 05, 2018, 04:14:04 PM »
Crunch time.  The Dem’s still have a very real, although slim, chance at taking back the Senate.

If we are to believe the 538 prognostication it requires the Dems to do the following:

1). Take the two “tossup states” of Arizona and Nevada

2). Take ONE of the “Likely Republican” states of Tennessee, Texas, and North Dakota.  I DONT include Mississippi in this group (although 538.com DOES).  Note that a poll out this am has Tennessee TIED (can you say Taylor Swift?).

3). Win the 4 states that are “Lean Democrat” of Indiana, Florida, Missouri, and Montana.

Clearly that is quite the “gauntlet” for the Dems to run ... and there are several states where they could likely be tripped up.  BUT .... there IS a possibility, as thin as it might be (15% according to 538.com).

Of the 3 states that the Dems have to steal ONE from ... as of this morning it looks like it would be Tennessee ..... followed by Texas ..... with North Dakota being the least likely.

“But you say there is a chance ......”

That is quite the daunting task.  Of your list, obviously number 3 has the best chance of occurring.  However, even that has less than a 50:50 probability, largely due to Missouri.  538 is the only pundit to have it tilting blue.  Most have it as a pure tossup, with some tilting red.  Montana looks like the surest of the group.  Trump and Pence are really pushing the voters in Indiana, and Florida is never an easy guess.

Number one on your list is possible.  Ironically, the red state (AZ) appears to be tilting blue, while the blue state (NV) appears to tilting red.  Still anybody's guess in these two.

The chances of number 2 occurring appear to be dwindling.  The tide has turned redder in all three states, making any Democratic victory look bleak. 

Granted, as you say, there is a chance.  However, I feel that the best the Dems can hope for is a 50:50 tie.  More likely the GOP will add a seat or more.


AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #615 on: November 05, 2018, 04:47:22 PM »
The blue wave is about to reach the beach for the House of Representatives:

Title: "New polls: Democrats favored to win House control"

https://www.axios.com/new-polls-democrats-favored-to-win-house-control-4d6c6e79-1b3c-4d53-9b78-477f30f6c2af.html?utm_source=midterms_ts

Extract: "In the final days before Tuesday’s midterm elections, two new polls, one from the Washington Post and ABC News and another from the Wall Street Journal and NBC News, found that most voters want Democrats to take control of the House.

Key findings: Both polls found that voters favor Democratic House candidates over Republicans 50% to 43%."
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Klondike Kat

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #616 on: November 05, 2018, 10:30:38 PM »
The blue wave is about to reach the beach for the House of Representatives:

Title: "New polls: Democrats favored to win House control"

https://www.axios.com/new-polls-democrats-favored-to-win-house-control-4d6c6e79-1b3c-4d53-9b78-477f30f6c2af.html?utm_source=midterms_ts

Extract: "In the final days before Tuesday’s midterm elections, two new polls, one from the Washington Post and ABC News and another from the Wall Street Journal and NBC News, found that most voters want Democrats to take control of the House.

Key findings: Both polls found that voters favor Democratic House candidates over Republicans 50% to 43%."

But then they hedged their bets at the end, saying that the midterms are typically a referendum on the sitting president and

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #617 on: November 05, 2018, 11:07:42 PM »
It will be interesting to see if the Democrats surge in the final batch of polls, is reflected in Senate seat votes on Tuesday:

Title: "Democrats see late surge in Senate battlegrounds"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/05/trump-close-out-midterm-961507

Extract: "A final batch of polls provided signs of late momentum for Democrats in the battle for the Senate, with surveys showing their candidates leading in two battleground races and decisively ahead in New Jersey."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #618 on: November 05, 2018, 11:17:33 PM »
It appears that the House Republicans are in panic mode before the midterms:

Title: "'Trump has hijacked the election': House Republicans in panic mode"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/04/trump-2018-elections-midterms-republicans-immigration-960748

Extract: "Worries deepen that Trump's charged immigration rhetoric will cost the GOP more seats."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Buddy

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #619 on: November 05, 2018, 11:51:57 PM »
I hope some of you had the chance to see the History Channel special on WaterGate.  The third and final sequence was last night ..... Part III last night and part II on Saturday night are good “primers” for where we are now ... and where we are going.

The elections tomorrow will certainly play a part in where we are going AND at what speed.

If Donnie loses the House tomorrow, it will be a significant blow.  If he loses the Senate as well, he ... as well as the Republican Party will be swimming with the sharks.
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Klondike Kat

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #620 on: November 06, 2018, 02:11:34 PM »
I don’t see it either, and expect a similar 1-3 seat GOP pickup.

mostly_lurking

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #621 on: November 06, 2018, 03:12:24 PM »
It appears that the House Republicans are in panic mode before the midterms:

Title: "'Trump has hijacked the election': House Republicans in panic mode"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/04/trump-2018-elections-midterms-republicans-immigration-960748

Extract: "Worries deepen that Trump's charged immigration rhetoric will cost the GOP more seats."

Not so sure this is true (unnamed GOP'ers mostly) but - Oh , this will be funny when the"cost" turns out to be a benefit.

mostly_lurking

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #622 on: November 06, 2018, 03:32:44 PM »
Interesting numbers.

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #623 on: November 06, 2018, 04:15:47 PM »
The USA Today has had enough with Trump's lap dogs in Congress and encourage voters to throw them out of office:

Title: "USA Today: ‘Vote out Donald Trump's lap dogs’"

https://thehill.com/homenews/media/415120-usa-today-vote-out-donald-trumps-lap-dogs

Extract: "In an editorial published on Election Day, USA Today urged voters to elect "Trump's lap dogs" out of office.

The piece said Republicans in Congress had failed to act as a check on President Trump, and called on voters to elect Democrats.

It said the "current GOP-controlled House and Senate" had been "little but obedient lap dogs to President Donald Trump."

"This would be troubling under any circumstances. But it is especially so now with a president who careens from gross incompetence to troubling executive overreach; who tolerates, even encourages, corrupt behavior; and who tries to govern through a toxic mix of self-adulation, divisive rhetoric, fear-mongering, outright lies and juvenile name-calling.""


See also:

https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/hopeful-signs-for-democrats-to-score-a-midterms-victory-against-trump
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #624 on: November 06, 2018, 04:29:06 PM »
The best way to fight Trump's efforts to suppress voting, is 'to turn out and make yourself heard':

Title: "Without evidence, Trump and Sessions warn of voter fraud in Tuesday's elections"

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/article/Without-evidence-Trump-and-Sessions-warn-of-13365354.php

Extract: " President Donald Trump and Attorney General Jeff Sessions on Monday issued strong warnings about the threat of voter fraud in Tuesday's elections, echoing the president's baseless claims that massive voter fraud marred his 2016 election and prompting accusations that his administration is trying to intimidate voters.

Said Vance, of Common Cause: "To turn out and make yourself heard is the primary weapon to combat these attempts to suppress the vote.""
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #625 on: November 06, 2018, 04:44:05 PM »
The Midwest is likely going to add to the blue wave today:

Title: "Trump’s GOP Braces for Midwest Massacre "

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/11/06/2018-election-trump-gop-midwest-222219

Extract: "A razor-thin margin in the Rust Belt gave the president his victory in 2016. But Democrats are rebuilding their vaunted ‘Blue Wall’ in 2018.

Tuesday’s elections mark the beginning of the 2020 campaign. And for all the focus on suburbanites fleeing the GOP, a blue wave in the Midwest would be indicative of Trump’s base turning against his Republican Party.

“There’s a lot of talk about these swing House districts that are disproportionately suburban, but the polls are showing similar movement among the white-working class,” said Grossman, the MSU political scientist. “When you have states like Ohio and Iowa that swung very strongly toward Trump, and this year they are seeing Democratic voters returning to the fold, those Democratic gains would be disproportionately among the white working class.”"
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #626 on: November 06, 2018, 10:42:18 PM »
For what it is worth, the FiveThirtyEight House forecast now gives the Democrats a 50-50 chance of gaining 39 seats:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Buddy

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #627 on: November 06, 2018, 10:53:55 PM »
Cook Political Report has 75 House races as “competitive.  Of those 75, 70 are Republican House seats now and 5 are currently Democrat.

Races I’m watching closely: Cruz/O’ROURKE, DeSantis/Gillum, Florida AG race ..... Florida and Texas are huge ...... not only for this race, but for years to come .....
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Klondike Kat

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #628 on: November 06, 2018, 11:11:35 PM »
Realclearpolitics has moved two Senate races that were previously Democratic leans into the tossup column; Montana and West Virginia.  538 has the Senate 50 to 48 in favor of the GOP with two tossups; Missouri and Nevada.  Politico predicts the Senate goes to the GOP by 50 to 45, with 5 tossups; FL, IN, MO, NV, and AZ.  Larry Sabato has it 52 to 48, with Indiana and Missouri turning red, while Nevada, Arizona, and Florida elect a Democrat. 

litesong

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #629 on: November 06, 2018, 11:34:36 PM »
Early exit poll for this mid-term 2018 election:
54% of voters view the re-pubic-lick-uns unfavorably.

litesong

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #630 on: November 06, 2018, 11:38:38 PM »
Early 2018 exit poll, show 47% of voters STRONGLY disagree with "don'T rump".

litesong

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #631 on: November 06, 2018, 11:41:19 PM »
Early 2018 exit poll, shows 48% view Kavanaugh unfavorably, only 43% favorably.

litesong

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #632 on: November 06, 2018, 11:46:35 PM »
Early 2018 exit poll, indicates 60% of voters want more gun control, 35% less.

litesong

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #633 on: November 06, 2018, 11:49:42 PM »
Early 2018 exit poll, 78% of voters believe more women need to be elected.

litesong

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #634 on: November 06, 2018, 11:51:38 PM »
Early 2018 exit poll, 71% of voters believe it is important to elect more minorities.

litesong

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #635 on: November 06, 2018, 11:53:16 PM »
Early 2018 exit poll, 77% of voters believe the country is more divided.

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #636 on: November 06, 2018, 11:54:33 PM »
A midterm youth wave could be good news for the Democrats:

Title: "Young people say they plan to vote at near-historic highs"

https://www.vox.com/2018/10/29/18037916/young-people-vote-harvard-poll-2018-midterms
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #637 on: November 06, 2018, 11:56:56 PM »
Early 2018 exit poll, 63% of new voters are voting for Democrats.

litesong

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #638 on: November 07, 2018, 12:20:41 AM »
Early 2018 exit poll: a full 18% of voters say it is NOT important to vote.

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #639 on: November 07, 2018, 12:22:20 AM »
If you were a McCain supporter you may want to think about rebuking Team Trump in the 2018 midterms, and vote Democrat:

Title: "Longtime McCain adviser urges people to vote Democrat"

https://www.salon.com/2018/11/06/longtime-mccain-adviser-urges-people-to-vote-democrat/

Extract: "“The bigger the rebuke of Trump the better for the country,” Mark Salter tweeted Tuesday"
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

litesong

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #640 on: November 07, 2018, 12:26:50 AM »
Early 2018 exit poll, 84% of voters say sexual harassment is serious.

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #641 on: November 07, 2018, 01:20:51 AM »
Early 2018 exit poll: 62% of voters believe jobs do not support a middle-class lifestyle.

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2020 Election
« Reply #642 on: November 07, 2018, 09:01:44 AM »
Time to change the headline. Sad for America, glad of not living there. Some minor movement to the center right on this election. No true change. Republicans still want mass murderers to kill school children etc. You know the drill.
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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #643 on: November 07, 2018, 09:43:13 AM »
Let's hope for our USA-forum-members that the fact they have to work together will normalize USA-politics a little bit with less mud-throwing etc.

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2020 Election
« Reply #644 on: November 07, 2018, 03:39:37 PM »
Time to change the headline. Sad for America, glad of not living there. Some minor movement to the center right on this election. No true change. Republicans still want mass murderers to kill school children etc. You know the drill.

Not so bad,  The Dems took the House, which was expected but far from assured.
Dems took a number of governorships, which will be helpful over time in reversing some of the GOP gerrymandering that would have continued to tilt the playing field in future elections.
Races in Florida and Texas were tantalizingly close.  One might say that a loss is still a loss, but I think the closeness will affect how the GOP winners will govern.

Given the remarkable current strength of the US economy right now, the above should be considered surprisingly good.

In 2020, the Repubs will have a harder time defending the Senate.  Trump is very unlikely to win re-election, and Democratic strength in the House will likely grow. 

The only depressing part of the picture is that between now and then Trump will be able to continue packing all the courts with right-wing jurists.

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #645 on: November 07, 2018, 03:48:04 PM »
Democrats won Governorships in two large gerrymandered states last night:  Michigan and Wisconsin.  The effect of re-drawing districts will be felt in future elections.  As well, Democrats did well on the state House & Senate levels gaining significant ground.
« Last Edit: November 07, 2018, 04:27:09 PM by Buddy »
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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #646 on: November 07, 2018, 03:59:07 PM »
The Democrats did well in the House, winning 27 seats with several yet to be decided.  They did poorly in the Senate, with a net loss of 2 seats so far, and behind in 3 others (FL, AZ, and MT).  I think both sides will be claiming victory, due to the split decision.

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #647 on: November 07, 2018, 04:28:43 PM »
The Democrats did well in the House, winning 27 seats with several yet to be decided.
...

Per the attached image, as of 6am ET FiveThirtyEight forecasts that the Democrats will gain 34 House seats, which matches my minimum definition of a blue wave.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #648 on: November 07, 2018, 04:33:17 PM »
Before the election, the Republicans controlled BOTH houses of Congress.  AFTER the election, Congress is now split.

It’s pretty clear who won last night.  This was NOT a “split decision”.  It was a victory for the Democrat’s .... both on the national AND local levels. 

And the victory will be expanded in the coming months/year as Trump and his administration’s corruption are exposed in the light of day.  Accountability is a bitch.
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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #649 on: November 07, 2018, 08:22:37 PM »
Just for the record:

Title: "Make No Mistake, the Midterms Were a Democratic Victory and a Rebuke of Trump"

https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/make-no-mistake-the-midterms-were-a-democratic-victory-and-a-rebuke-of-trump

Extract: "Ever since November, 2016, many people, myself included, have worried about the health of American democracy, and some have speculated that Trump could be the death of it. As long as he remains in office, acting like a mob boss on some days and an arsonist on others, the danger will be there. And the results in the Senate could even embolden him. But at least, on Tuesday, the American people exercised their right to inflict some big defeats on his party. That was a win for democracy and a loss for Trump."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson