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ArcticMelt2

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Glaciers of New Guinea
« on: June 09, 2019, 09:41:08 AM »
This year may be the last for the glaciers of one of the largest islands on the planet.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carstensz_Glacier
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The remaining remnant glaciers on Punkak Jaya were once part of an icecap that developed approximately 5,000 years ago. At least one previous icecap also existed in the region between 15,000 and 7,000 years ago, when it also apparently melted away and disappeared.[1]

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/91716/glaciers-in-the-tropics-but-not-for-long

November 3, 1988



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The top image shows that, as of 1988, five masses of ice rested on the mountain slopes.

October 9, 2009



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By 2009, the Meren and Southwall glaciers had disappeared, and the Carstensz, East Northwall Firn, and West Northwall Firn had retreated dramatically.

December 5, 2017



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By the time OLI acquired the 2017 image, the West Northwall Firn had also disappeared. Turn on the image comparison tool to see the changes.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: Glaciers of New Guinea
« Reply #1 on: June 09, 2019, 09:42:43 AM »
In general, out of 5 glaciers in 1988, in 2017 only a couple of glaciers remained.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: Glaciers of New Guinea
« Reply #2 on: June 09, 2019, 10:09:27 AM »
In 2010, the glaciers were drilled.

https://etd.ohiolink.edu/pg_10?::NO:10:P10_ETD_SUBID:74839#abstract-files

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A field expedition to Papua highland was conducted in May - June 2010 to drill ice cores from these glaciers and to collect rain samples from different elevation in the vicinity.

Three ice cores were drilled, two to bedrock measuring 32.13 m (D1) and 31.25 m (D1B) in length and the third measuring 26.19 m (D2) in length. The stable isotope records were reproducible between the longer cores with significant δ18O variability of 5 to 6‰. High aerosol events were identified between 20 and 29 meters depth and in the top eight meters. This suggests that there is no melting throughout the glacier. The dating of D1 core has not been completed yet. Low tritium concentration in D1 core and high tritium concentration recorded in precipitation at the northern sites of Papua suggests that the glaciers may have melted below the 1950s/1960s bomb horizons.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: Glaciers of New Guinea
« Reply #3 on: June 09, 2019, 10:16:41 AM »
Presumably the glaciers already completely melted in the 20-30s of the 20th century.

https://etd.ohiolink.edu/pg_10?0::NO:10:P10_ACCESSION_NUM:osu1449155469

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The age of the D1 (D1B) core is ~90 yrs (~77 yrs) with a bottom age of 1920 (1933). The ice core dating is based on tritium analysis which provides an absolute time marker of 1964 at a depth of 23.4 m in Core D1, and δ18O reference-matching with NINO3.4 sea surface temperature (SST). On decadal to interdecadal timescales, dust and major ions concentration in the ice cores are modulated by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phases. On an interannual timescale peaks of dust, ammonium and potassium are associated with El Niño-linked drought and biomass burnings. The D1 δ18O time series shows an increasing trend from 1920 to 2010 with a slope of 0.012‰ per year which is identical with the trend of the regional temperatures over Papua region suggesting that atmospheric warming controls δ18O variation. In contrast, annual precipitation rate shows contemporaneous positive trend that contradicts the amount effect as a major factor. During El Niño, precipitation 18O is enriched, aerosol deposition on the glacier surface is enhanced due to the exposure of more dust sources, and accumulation is low with most precipitation falling as rain rather than snow. During La Niña, precipitation 18O is depleted, higher precipitation and cooler temperatures prevail in the highland which results in higher snow accumulation.

Previous studies indicates that the total ice area near Puncak Jaya has decreased at a rate of ~0.15 km2 per year since ~1850, which implies that these glaciers will disappear by ~2017-18. This is consistent with personal observations made during the 2010 ice core drilling campaign where ice around a tent at the campsite had melted a 30 cm after ~3 weeks camping on the ice field, suggesting a thinning rate of ~5.2 m/yr. A recent accumulation stake measurement on the ice surface indicates that the ice thickness has thinned by ~5.26 m between 2010 and 2015 (~1.05 m/yr), which provides the upper bound of the date for the glaciers disappearance by ~2040. The south ice front of the East Northwall Firn has experienced an accelerated retreat rate from ~14 m/yr between 1936 and 2006 to ~51 m/yr between 2006 and 2015 which is most likely due to atmospheric warming.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: Glaciers of New Guinea
« Reply #4 on: June 09, 2019, 10:25:30 AM »
Presumably the glaciers already completely melted in the 20-30s of the 20th century.

Although it is very doubtful. Glaciers at that time existed and were much larger than they are now (probably the ice has great mobility).


kassy

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Re: Glaciers of New Guinea
« Reply #5 on: December 06, 2020, 11:17:19 AM »
This tropical glacier is rare, revered, and could be gone by next year

...

Lorentz National Park, in Indonesia's disputed Papua province of New Guinea, is home to the region's last tropical glacier.

Some call it the Eternity Glacier, but it might not be there for much longer.

...

"Puncak Jaya doesn't have ice on the peak, but around it there are several ice masses, that used to be one large glacier."

Tropical glaciers are one of the most sensitive indicators of climate change, and there are only a handful left in the world — in Papua, South America, and Africa.

Puncak Jaya is the highest mountain in Indonesia and the highest peak between the Himalayas and the Andes.

At an elevation of 4,884 metres above sea level, temperatures drop and rain turns to snow, which in turn compacts down into the glacier.

As one of Earth's wettest regions it rains nearly 300 days a year, but warming temperatures mean that rain isn't turning into snow anymore.

The glacier is melting from the top and the bottom.

"We call it basal melting, melting from the bottom. As the darker area around the glacier gets bigger it absorbs more solar radiation, so it gets warmer," Dr Permana tells ABC RN's Earshot.

"It's a feedback loop. Also, the terrain the glacier is on is not flat, and so ice can slide away even faster."

The numbers confirm the exponential melt. In 1850 the glacier area was 19.3 square kilometres. In 1972 it was 7.3km2. In 2018 it was just 0.5km2.

Scientists predict the glacier will be completely gone, at best, by 2026 — but more than likely by next year.

It will take vital clues about the Earth's changing climate with it.

Extracts from a dying glacier
The Papuan glacier is one of three areas with tropical glaciers left.

In the Andes mountain range in Peru and scattered across Africa, tropical glaciers are shrinking, but as Puncak Jaya is the lowest in elevation it will be the first to go.

The glaciers have their own individual characteristics influenced by their surroundings.

In Africa and South America there are discernible dry seasons, where dust is gathered up by rain and eventually turned into snow.

If you were to slice into these glaciers like a cake, you'd see the annual dust layers and be able to calculate the age of the glacier.

"The Peruvian ice core has been dated to about 1,800 years. And in Africa they can go back to 11,000 years. But in Papua, because it always rains, we can't date it as easily," Dr Permana says.

In 2010 he was part of a research team that extracted ice cores from the Papuan glacier. Thirty-two-metre-long tubes of ice were drilled right down to the bedrock.

"We thought we might be able to find leaves or insects to do some carbon dating. But we only found one indicator of time," Dr Permana says.

"At 24-metre depth, we found deposits of tritium, which is associated with nuclear tests conducted in 1964."

In 1964 the Soviet Union and China conducted a series of nuclear tests, showering the planet with tritium and leaving trace elements in the ice.

What exists today on Puncak Jaya is thought to be the remnants of glaciers that have existed for approximately 5,000 years, however many of those years have melted away.

"The bottom, at 32-metre depth, it is associated with the 1920s, so we can say the glacier is about 90 years old," Dr Permana says.

"But it's melting from the top and the bottom so it's hard to say just how old it is."

A cross-continental climate puzzle
Extracting the Papuan ice cores provided the second piece of a climate puzzle.

"We already had ice cores from the eastern side of the Pacific Ocean. The South American cores were extracted in the 1980s, so we wanted a record on the other side — the western side, in Papua. We wanted to see what the ENSO looked like based on two tropical glaciers," Dr Permuna says.

ENSO, the El Niño Southern Oscillation, occurs every two to seven years. The 2015/2016 El Niño event brought warmer and dryer conditions, which could lead to an increase in ice loss.

That is exactly what the research team found when comparing the two cores.

They also concluded that "regional warming has passed a threshold such that the next very strong strong El Niño event could lead to the demise of the only remaining tropical glaciers between the Himalayas and the Andes".

...

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-04/indonesia-tropical-glacier-threatened-climate-change/12914584
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Espen

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Re: Glaciers of New Guinea
« Reply #6 on: December 08, 2020, 07:55:28 PM »
A bit away from my turf, but here is an image from Sentinel 2 showing what is left:

Please click on image to enlarge, the ice fields are in the red circles!
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Glaciers of New Guinea
« Reply #7 on: December 08, 2020, 10:26:48 PM »
The enlargement, although slow, is rather worth it.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Espen

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Re: Glaciers of New Guinea
« Reply #8 on: December 08, 2020, 11:16:23 PM »
The enlargement, although slow, is rather worth it.

Yes ,this out of my territory. The speed of download is due to the BSA factor.
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Espen

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Re: Glaciers of New Guinea
« Reply #9 on: December 08, 2020, 11:22:15 PM »
The enlargement, although slow, is rather worth it.

Yes ,this out of my territory. The speed of download is due to the BSA factor.

Or maybe Make Bananas great Again!
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: Glaciers of New Guinea
« Reply #10 on: December 11, 2020, 02:05:53 PM »
Here is an update of the situation at Puncak Jaya, New Guinea.
The present glaciers are incircled in red, my estimate so far is there is a few more years left in the remains of the former Icefield / Icecap.

Please click on the image to enlarge and animate!

More info about the Glaciers here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Puncak_Jaya#/media/File:Puncak_Jaya_glaciers_1850-2003_evolution_map-fr.gif
« Last Edit: December 12, 2020, 10:39:39 AM by Espen »
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Espen

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Re: Glaciers of New Guinea
« Reply #11 on: December 12, 2020, 04:00:54 PM »
And here is a 1 year study - Note August is the best time of the year to pick cloudless data from this region.

Please click on image to enlarge and animate!
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Espen

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Re: Glaciers of New Guinea
« Reply #12 on: December 22, 2020, 02:59:44 PM »
Puncak Jaya Glaciers - Now with data from 1980 included -
Notice the change at the mine site - Grasberg (Grass Mountain) Mine started operation in 1988 not far from the neighbour mine Ertberg (Ore Mountain) both names are in Dutch.
The Grasberg Mine is the largest gold mine on earth and second largest coppermine and large in several other minerals, including, I suspect, a glacier killing attitude, probably from dust etc.

Please click on image to animate!
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kassy

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Re: Glaciers of New Guinea
« Reply #13 on: December 22, 2020, 03:30:36 PM »
Thanks for the updates. Always hard to imagine how big those open mines are.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Espen

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Re: Glaciers of New Guinea
« Reply #14 on: December 22, 2020, 05:00:28 PM »
Here is some more documentation, watch the glacier killing dust over the mine, and a "little" distance away up in the left corner of the image are the glacier sites.
The altitude difference from the rim of the mine to the top of Puncak Jaya is only 400 - 500 meters.
Image below is provided by By Richard Jones August 17 2009.

Please click to enlarge!
« Last Edit: December 23, 2020, 08:07:24 PM by Espen »
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oren

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Re: Glaciers of New Guinea
« Reply #15 on: December 22, 2020, 09:59:59 PM »
Wow. The 40-year change is astounding.

Stephan

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Re: Glaciers of New Guinea
« Reply #16 on: December 28, 2020, 08:40:09 AM »
Espen,
thank you for the images and animations.
Pure horror.
How large will that mine be in the 2050s, assuming a constant growth rate?
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change