JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: June poll

[DavidR]

Its time for the regular June poll on this years likely JAXA extent minimum. The graph shows minimums since 2003.

The poll is open for 15 days and you should be able to  change your vote.

These are the daily September minimums (in millions km2):

1980's Avg:   7.23
1990's Avg:   6.55
2000's Avg:   5.48
2000:   6.04
2001:   6.55
2002:   5.53
2003:   5.93
2004:   5.68
2005:   5.18
2006:   5.63
2007:   4.07
2008:   4.50
2009:   5.05
2010:   4.62
2011:   4.27
2012:   3.18
2013:   4.81
2014:   4.88
2015:   4.26
2016:   4.02
2017:   4.47

[gerontocrat]

I went for 3.5 to 4.0 but with 15 days to go of actual melting plus PIOMAS & NSIDC May analyses plus forecasts of temps etc I may very well change my mind.

[Sleepy]

On exactly 20180917 it will be exactly 4065739 km². 

Ahh what would I know, went for 3.75 - 4.25. A bit surprised when seeing it was (or rather became) the top vote right now...

[jdallen]

On exactly 20180917 it will be exactly 4065739 km². 

Ahh what would I know, went for 3.75 - 4.25. A bit surprised when seeing it was (or rather became) the top vote right now...

Not surprised at all.  I think we're seeing a cluster at or around 4.0 million KM2.  I'd not be surprised at all if we came in around that... which would place 2018 at 2nd lowest overall, if it's under 4.10 or so.  It also fits if the weather follows the pattern of the last 5-6 years.

Given the right weather we could go under that... WELL under that, even to the point of blowing through 2012's record.  However, weather - which is not predictable - will be the determinant of that.

[Paddy]

Another vote for 3.75-4.25 here. It could be a lot lower, but common outcomes are common.

[Sleepy]

Thanks, haven't followed the ice as close as I should have lately and therfore lost some feeling for where things are going. Well, we're in the month of cliffs now so let's see how that goes.

[pauldry600]

going unspectacular 4.5 to 5m

[HapHazard]

3.25 - 3.75
Kind of a gut feeling, but also a vague picture I've been forming over the last few years that I can't fully explain but things have fallen in line with it, for the most part. (it's probably all the beer, TBQH)

[Daniel B.]

going unspectacular 4.5 to 5m

Following suit.  Somewhat similar to last year.

[Richard Rathbone]

Too early to pick anything but the trend value. 3.75-4.25

By the end of June momentum indicators such as the size of the June cliff and melt pond fraction anomalies become available, but its hard for any method to beat picking the trend this far ahead.

[Ned W]

The following graphic was posted by Steven, based on an earlier example by Chris Reynolds.

Neven asked to have it posted at the start of this year's June Poll ... so here it is:



Historically, we've tended to collectively overestimate how much extent will be lost, especially in the first polls of the season.   In other words, the ASIF community tends to err on the low side.  But maybe increased awareness of that (thanks, Steven and Chris!) will make our predictions more accurate this year...

See also this thread:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2078.msg117196.html#msg117196

[RikW]

I've been too low in every poll on this forum, so I go for 4.25 to 4.75. Based on my earlier predictions I've forced the minimum to be above 4.75...

But I've got a bad feeling for this melting season,

[Stephan]

I think we'll end up around 4.3 Mio km2, a little lower than last September. Therefore I chose 4.0 to 4.5 Mio km².
Thanks Ned W and Steven for the results of the two last year minimum June AIF polls. Interesting to see that there is an over-estimation to the lower end of area.

[Paddy]

Points noted, and switched to go up half a step to 4.0-4.5. With a lot of uncertainty around it.

[jdallen]

I still haven't seen anything to push me out of my 3.75-4.25 slot.  I still think I'm being conservative, and weather could make things much worse, far more easily than 2012 or earlier.

[oren]

At this point in time,  with hardly any data relevant to September, the trend is your friend. 3.75-4.25.

[Michael Hauber]

New Record.  We are currently at the longest run in IJIS data without an annual record, and low volume, high winter warmth point to something on the low side.

[DavidR]

At this point in time,  with hardly any data relevant to September, the trend is your friend. 3.75-4.25.

Attached is the loss profile for this year for the current date showing losses to date, and from this date, in the last 15 years. Based on this graph a return to the trend would see a further loss of 6.9M+  km^ leading to a final figure around 3.75. On the other hand an average loss would see a final figure of 4.25. Seems like Oren may have picked a good balance.

[be cause]

I too went for new record .. eventually the Arctic must run out of lucky breaks with the weather and this looks like that year . b.c.

[echoughton]

Went with 4.5-5.0, but the end tally will be 4.7639...or thereabouts 

[Paddy]

Went with 4.5-5.0, but the end tally will be 4.7639...or thereabouts 

Why though? That would be unusually high, compared to the past ten years.

Meanwhile I'm switching back to 3.75-4.25.

[echoughton]

Went with 4.5-5.0, but the end tally will be 4.7639...or thereabouts 

Why though? That would be unusually high, compared to the past ten years.

Meanwhile I'm switching back to 3.75-4.25.

Last year I believe it ended up 4.6

[gerontocrat]

Last year I believe it ended up 4.6

JAXA minimum daily extent 2017 4.47 million km2 on 9th September

[Cid_Yama]

Since anything below 3.41 is a new record, the design of this poll divides up the new record vote among the bottom 4 bins. (and what's with the overlaps?  2 different bins overlap previous lowest, and one bin includes both above and below previous 2nd lowest.)

How about somebody clean that up. 

[Neven]

I'm afraid it's too late to change the poll bins now. At least, not without wiping out all the votes.

But I appreciate someone opening the JAXA poll, as I've just launched the NSIDC poll, and it's quite a bit of work. So, thanks, NedW! 

Nevertheless, to avoid the same discussions we have had over the years: Ned, if you'll open next month's poll as well, could you please use last year's poll as a template (same amount of bins, and minimums of previous years in the opening post)? This will also make it easier to compare to polls from previous years.

I've also taken the liberty of changing the title of this thread. Hope you don't mind.

[DavidR]

Since anything below 3.41 is a new record, the design of this poll divides up the new record vote among the bottom 4 bins. (and what's with the overlaps?  2 different bins overlap previous lowest, and one bin includes both above and below previous 2nd lowest.)

How about somebody clean that up.

Cid you  are quoting the NSIDC minimum extent not Jaxa.

The Jaxa minimum in 2012 was 3177455 so the bottom bin covers anything below that The second lowest  bin covers a bit above that and just follows the pattern of the previous choices.

[mmghosh]

Average of 2010-2017 is 4.35.  I'm going with 4-4.5

[Hyperion]

I've pretty much formed the opinion that the ice will crash to zero or near at the point when the scattering of remaining deep keeled burgs and multi year ice drops below a threshold where they cannot cool the top 20 mtrs or so of the pycnocline during summer melting. Above that point within the pack they are maintaining a cool surface layer that buffers the slushpack from deeper heat. Beyond it we will see a sudden vigorous increase in bottom melting and suddenly it will all go.
I think we are there now, the apparent plateau from 2012 has been the heat going into this root-rot and now its going to be a shock new record.

[Pmt111500]

As the crash I expected to happen last year in Arctic didn't happen, but possibly manifested itself at Weddell Sea, I'm pretty much not to be trusted. Anyway, also expecting the ice in Arctic to vanish any year now. As I see it, there's nothing in meteorology to prevent a perfect melt-storm in Arctic from happening again. If anything, I'm a bit surprised of how the WACC-conditions seen ever more regularly, have not yet allowed the Arctic Ocean to change it's behaviour so much  the fresh-water pool on top would slide over to southern latitudes in summer. This should allow the saltier Atlantic/Pacific water already present to surface up there and present us with a scientifically beautiful example of overturning of waters in oceans. I know comparing the salt-pulses in the Baltic Sea to what's happening in the Arctic isn't an accurate comparison, but I should have some basics covered specifically for the disastrous fail in statistic prediction in 2017.

[Sterks]

I voted 4 - 4.5 m km2. Like 2017, 2016, 2015, 2011, 2007. Seems more often than not now.

[Neven]

I voted 4 - 4.5 m km2. Like 2017, 2016, 2015, 2011, 2007. Seems more often than not now.

That's what I've voted as well.

[Ned W]

I'm afraid it's too late to change the poll bins now. At least, not without wiping out all the votes.

But I appreciate someone opening the JAXA poll, as I've just launched the NSIDC poll, and it's quite a bit of work. So, thanks, NedW! 

Nevertheless, to avoid the same discussions we have had over the years: Ned, if you'll open next month's poll as well, could you please use last year's poll as a template (same amount of bins, and minimums of previous years in the opening post)? This will also make it easier to compare to polls from previous years.

I've also taken the liberty of changing the title of this thread. Hope you don't mind.

Thanks, but actually it was DavidR, not me, who opened this poll and thread. 

So, no, I don't mind you editing the title at all...

 

[RealityCheck]

The decadal averages are decreasing and if that trend continues the 2010s will average 4.5 ish I reckon. As Oren says, the trend is your friend. (Even if that trend eventually wipes out Arctic sea ice in summer ...😕.) But the conditions seem ominous, so I vote 3.75-4.25 for now. Quite possible that 2018 could challenge 2012 though, if there's a 'perfect storm' - with apologies for the bad pun... 😁

[Ned W]

I had initially set up this year's predict-o-matic wrong (thanks, Steven!) but now it's back to the same principle as last year, except with a much more sophisticated representation of uncertainty.

Predicted daily min = 3.92
95% CI for prediction = 2.66 to 5.18

Here are the probabilities for the bins:

New record	12%
Under 2.5	1%
2.5 to 3	6%
2.75 to 3.25	11%
3 to 3.5	18%
3.25 to 3.75	25%
3.5 to 4	30%
3.75 to 4.25	31%
4 to 4.5	27%
4.25 to 4.75	21%
4.5 to 5	14%
4.75 to 5.25	8%
5 to 5.5	4%
Over 5.25	2%

The probabilities sum to more than 100% because the bins overlap.  The uncertainty is very wide until late July.

[Juan C. García]

I voted the range 3.75-4.25M km². 
And I was also thinking a bin lower (3.5-4.0M km²)

I still think that 2018 could be the lowest in 8 to 10 days. And a lot of heat on the Arctic this year.

[aperson]

Based on the incoming damage from the Arctic cyclone and the increased likelihood of a JAS El Nino, I went for 2.75 - 3.25.

[Neven]

Thanks, but actually it was DavidR, not me, who opened this poll and thread. 

So, no, I don't mind you editing the title at all...

 

It got late yesterday. But good to know you don't mind! 

Corrected version:

But I appreciate someone opening the JAXA poll, as I've just launched the NSIDC poll, and it's quite a bit of work. So, thanks, DavidR! 

Nevertheless, to avoid the same discussions we have had over the years: David, if you'll open next month's poll as well, could you please use last year's poll as a template (same amount of bins, and minimums of previous years in the opening post)? This will also make it easier to compare to polls from previous years.

[DavidR]

But I appreciate someone opening the JAXA poll, as I've just launched the NSIDC poll, and it's quite a bit of work. So, thanks, DavidR! 

Nevertheless, to avoid the same discussions we have had over the years: David, if you'll open next month's poll as well, could you please use last year's poll as a template (same amount of bins, and minimums of previous years in the opening post)? This will also make it easier to compare to polls from previous years.

Ok Noted. By July 1st the picture should be much clearer.

[icefisher]

Somewhere between 3.89 and 4.18.  The Atlantic side melting out before Fram flushing makes comparisons with prior years difficult.  Weather?

[DavidR]

With 5 days of data in,  the average poll estimate for 92 voters is 3.79 M km^2.  This puts the New record groups' estimate at 3.0 M km^2 and the above 5 group at 5.25 M km^2. 

With the current weather forecast for the Arctic it will be interesting to see how this changes by the end of the poll.

[Pavel]

4-4,5 m km2. At this point I'm not expecting the new record, but it still possible of course

[coyoteyogi]

I'll firm up my guess on September 5th but for now I'm going low but not quite a record_3.5-4.0
I have been consistently wrong for years.

[jplotinus]

I had to force myself to go 4.25-4.75 because of the low bias I have, as do most here. Thus far, the 2018 melt has been less than average, though starting from a low maximum. I expect the melt season to continue its slow, but steady, pace and to eventually squander the early headstart brought about by the low maximum.

[GoSouthYoungins]

triangle from north of greenland to north pole to 72 N on CAA is all that will be left of ice at minimum this year, most likely. New Record. By the solstice, there will be open water around the arctic everywhere except Greenland-CAA.  After that the edge will rapidly retreat and there will be flash outs. People who keep posting that it will be a "normal (2010-2017)" year are blowing my mind. I really don't get it how it will get warmer  for years on end in the ocean and the atmosphere but the ice is supposed to just chill...

[Ktb]

People who keep posting that it will be a "normal (2010-2017)" year are blowing my mind. I really don't get it how it will get warmer  for years on end in the ocean and the atmosphere but the ice is supposed to just chill...

Massive systems are hard to predict. Tons of individual events can accumulate to prevent an open ocean in September

[GoSouthYoungins]

People who keep posting that it will be a "normal (2010-2017)" year are blowing my mind. I really don't get it how it will get warmer  for years on end in the ocean and the atmosphere but the ice is supposed to just chill...

Massive systems are hard to predict. Tons of individual events can accumulate to prevent an open ocean in September

Yes, but does that make it more likely? No, it does not.

[aperson]

Thankfully differing opinions result in a good ensemble spread of estimates!

[Glenn Tamblyn]

In a few days 2018 will split the difference between 2012 & 2016 for that date. Going with it splitting the difference between them in September, I went for 3.25-3.75

[Tetra]

3.25-3.75

Same justification as my other post in the other poll thread. Top three being a huge possibility (between 2016 and 2012) but I think a new record is juuuust edged out because 201/ was such a wild humdinger of a year.

People who keep posting that it will be a "normal (2010-2017)" year are blowing my mind. I really don't get it how it will get warmer  for years on end in the ocean and the atmosphere but the ice is supposed to just chill...

Massive systems are hard to predict. Tons of individual events can accumulate to prevent an open ocean in September

Yes, but does that make it more likely? No, it does not.

I think you're severely underestimating the negative feed back loops of the Arctic. That's why 2017 wasn't a scary year when everyone was expecting it would be, things such as clouds etc, prevent records. Hence why Ktb is right when he says that massive systems are hard to predict, the arctic has shown us again and again that when expecting disasters with whatever crappy ice we have, to instead keep an open mind.

Heck, this is my second melting season and I was expecting 2017 to be such a disaster of epic proportions that there would be no ice left this year (just see the volume difference between 2017 and other years in the first six months of the year, in Wipneus's graph). But I was wrong because the humble negative feedback loops kicked into effect.

Therefore I think the Arctic is way more resilient than many of us give it credit for. So 2018 stands a good cash me of not even being a new record tbh.

[Lord M Vader]

Originally, I voted 4,5-5,0 Mn km², but the last weeks weather over the Laptev basin had me to lower my minimum guess to 4,25-4,75 Mn km².

However, I don't see a new record low as likely given that we still haven't crossed the melting point over the high Arctic. Another reason is that the odds seems to be low for a developing GBH in the next month or so. My idea is that the most likely outcome is a warm Siberian side while cooler conditions will prevail over the Canadian side, thus preventing a new record low.