I quote: -Voting closes: June 16, 2018, 01:52:49 AM.
What time zone ? - Moscow (World Cup Time), Hawaii (Volcano Time), GMT, BST, etc.
When considering my vote I start with the outcome of 4.24 million km2 if remaining melt was the last 10 year average.
Then I looked at all the regional seas (NSIDC area data) for clues. (posted on 2018 Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area Data an hour ago) No good.
Then I thought +ve and -ve feedbacks.
+veGlobal Ocean heat content strongly up,
SST anomalies more +ve than not in the Arctic.
May to date warmer than 2017 ?
GFS predicting +ve temp anomalies for the next 10 days.
-vePIOMAS - the Elephant in the room? From Neven's June 2018 update. -
http://neven1.typepad.com/2018 is 5th lowest right now, and the difference with last year has grown to a massive 1915 km3, which is 299 km3 more than last month.
i.e. a lot of additional volume to melt to produce a low result.
I tried Mystic Meg and the Farmers' Almanac - they gave me no idea.
Logic says go for 4.0 to 4.5.
Gut says one bin lower. So 3.75 to 4.25 for me.