Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: 3 trillion tons of Antarctic ice lost since 1992  (Read 1422 times)

ael

  • New ice
  • Posts: 23
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 0
3 trillion tons of Antarctic ice lost since 1992
« on: June 14, 2018, 05:31:31 PM »
A comprehensive study suggests the Antarctic ice sheet lost roughly three trillion tons of ice between 1992 and 2017.

The study, published today in Nature, found that annual ice loss in West Antarctica — the most vulnerable to warming temperatures — was almost three times higher than an earlier estimate in 2012, from 59 billion tons a year to 159 billion tons a year.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/antarctic-ice-sheet-1.4703952

Susan Anderson

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 527
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 43
  • Likes Given: 247
Re: 3 trillion tons of Antarctic ice lost since 1992
« Reply #1 on: June 15, 2018, 08:46:51 PM »
Does anybody know more about the background to this Guardian video?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2018/jun/14/timelapse-shows-antarctic-ice-shelf-collapse-after-battering-from-waves-video

I did check the reference included and found a bit more:

http://www.antarctica.gov.au/ - specifically:
http://www.antarctica.gov.au/news/2018/ocean-waves-following-sea-ice-loss-trigger-antarctic-ice-shelf-collapse

I checked the reference at the end, which included the citation, The conversion and the NSIDC.

Benje

  • New ice
  • Posts: 13
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 3 trillion tons of Antarctic ice lost since 1992
« Reply #2 on: June 16, 2018, 09:57:10 AM »
This too is a nice report on BBC Radio 4 discussing the triple increase in loss rate since 2012.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0b5qng9

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6749
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1660
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: 3 trillion tons of Antarctic ice lost since 1992
« Reply #3 on: June 16, 2018, 12:03:31 PM »
A comprehensive study suggests the Antarctic ice sheet lost roughly three trillion tons of ice between 1992 and 2017.

The study, published today in Nature, found that annual ice loss in West Antarctica — the most vulnerable to warming temperatures — was almost three times higher than an earlier estimate in 2012, from 59 billion tons a year to 159 billion tons a year.

I attach the graph from the study published in Nature (1992-2017) and data from the NASA/Germany GRACE satellite project (2002 to 2016 - expired in early 2017). They show a similar acceleration in mass loss. Maybe the Nature study will finally squash the deniers red herring about Antarctic mass gain (NASA scientist study a few years ago?) that still is going around.

The GRACE follow-on satellites are launched and currently being tested. With the improved technology on board who knows what data they will produce (starting late this year?).
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

anthropocene

  • New ice
  • Posts: 94
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 14
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: 3 trillion tons of Antarctic ice lost since 1992
« Reply #4 on: June 16, 2018, 02:31:25 PM »
So the article at: http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/antarctic-ice-sheet-1.4703952  states that the mass loss is now 3 times what was estimated in 2012. I.e. the measure in 2012 was wrong by a factor of 3. The article at https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jun/13/antarctic-ice-melting-faster-than-ever-studies-show and the graph state that the melting is 3 times faster than what it was in 2012. One of those is misleading at best.

Also, when the Hansen paper came out there was plenty of discussion about time for doubling rates of ice melt from Antarctica and Greenland. iirc the consensus was 15 to 20 year doubling rates were bad enough, anything approaching 10 was pretty catastrophic. We've now got a measured tripling rate of 5 years? Even if this is an outlier measurement and the average increase in melting is less than this, say doubling rate of every 7 years these seems to be doomsday scenario for sea-level rise. Why aren't people making more of this? 

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6749
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1660
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: 3 trillion tons of Antarctic ice lost since 1992
« Reply #5 on: June 16, 2018, 04:02:52 PM »
I am more comfortable with the GRACE satellite data, which was used for loads of other stuff that could be verified by observations on the ground.

The GRACE follow-on should produce data in much greater detail by the end of the year and one full year by end 2019, and a three year series by end 2021. I hope to still be in the land of the living to see it.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)