JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July Poll

[DavidR]

This poll has been reverted to  last years format to make for an easier comparison.

The poll is for the minimum Daily sea ice extent in 2018 as measured by JAXA.

September minimums for the past 15  years have been:

2003     5933760
2004     5683663
2005     5179300
2006     5625046
2007     4065739
2008     4500623
2009     5054055
2010     4622092
2011     4269199
2012     3177455
2013     4809288
2014     4884120
2015     4257003
2016     4017264
2017     4472225

[oren]

Thanks for setting this up David.
No overlapping bins this time?

[DavidR]

Thanks for setting this up David.
No overlapping bins this time?

Neven requested the same format as last year.

[Neven]

Last year's JAXA July and August polls had overlapping bins, so I quickly made these overlapping as well. For those who already have voted, check if you still agree with your vote (the change isn't that big). If not, you can change your vote.

Oh, and I made the top bin non-open-ended for the same reason as for the NSIDC poll.

Thanks a lot for opening the polls, David. I'll be voting in around 10 days. Hopefully ADS-NIPR will have resolved their server problems by then.

[Tetra]

4.0-4.5

The calmer June melt has drastically changed my prediction (whether its due to measurement errors or the weather is something else.)

I think 2018 will be a so and so year. It’s nowhere near as bad as 2016, and 2012 was a mythically bad year. Ther4 2018 will assume a comfortable position among the 2012-2017 placements. I’m guessing either slightly lower or higher than 2017 thanks to the slightly warmer weather/thicker ice combination. It could go either way, but am definitely not holding my breath for a new record.

July could still change things and make it go lower than 2016. But that year was a massacre.

Edit: This is just a preliminary vote. I’m still learning about how the arctic works on here, so may change vote after the melting momentum of July has made itself known in about 10-15 days.

[Paddy]

4.0 to 4.5 for me as well; up half a bin from my guess in the June poll.

[Stephan]

I have chosen the same bin as in the former poll from May 2018 (4.25 to 4.75 mio) because I think that this year will not turn out to be 2007ish, 2016ish or even 2012ish.

[EgalSust]

4.25-4.75

Up a bin from June.

[Ned W]

Now that JAXA is back we can get an update from the predict-o-matic. 

Predicted JAXA min: 4.46 [only 10k below last year's minimum!]
95% CI for prediction: 3.41 to 5.51

During the month of June, the predicted value for end-of-summer minimum steadily moved upward (because the melt was so slow):



There's now a 80+% chance JAXA will end up above 4.0.

[Juan C. García]

4.0 to 4.5 for me as well; up half a bin from my guess in the June poll.

I am also changing to 4.0-4.5M km², after 3.75-4.25 last month.

[CameraMan]

Standing on 4 - 4.5

I think the ice is in worse shape than June extent numbers might suggest, and distribution and impending weather are setting up for a cliff.   I dearly hope I'm wrong.

[oren]

Keeping 3.75-4.25, the uncertainty range is still high, so this outcome is certainly possible although the probability has decreased compared to a month ago.

[Richard Rathbone]

Up 3. Momentum indicators are terrible for melt.

4.5-5.0

[Krakatoa]

I stick with 4.5-5
I'll be really surprised if extend ends up below 4.5

[Juan C. García]

4.0 to 4.5 for me as well; up half a bin from my guess in the June poll.

I am also changing to 4.0-4.5M km², after 3.75-4.25 last month.

I am going up another half bin, to 4.25-4.75M km².
Hopefully, I will go up again in the near future. 

[Stephan]

I stay at my originally chosen bin of 4.25 to 4.75 M km² no matter what the actual weather or decline rate is.

[gerontocrat]

Before the melt season started I was thinking 3.75 to 4.25 and a 2nd lowest- low winter maximum, global ocean heat content way up, AGW in the Arctic.

But now the season is 62 percent done, the average remaining melt gives an answer above 4.75, extent is 11th lowest, 500k above the 2010's average, and arctic +ve temperature anomalies set to be small to zero for at least the next 10 days. Against that area is much closer to the 2010's average.

My head must rule - and says 4.5 to 5.0 million

[Neven]

I went up one bin to 'Between 4.25 and 4.75 million km^2'.

[slow wing]

Just missed closing. I would have gone for [3.75,4.25] bin.

[Paddy]

Missed the opportunity to go up a bin in this and the other poll before closing. Oh well.

[pauldry600]

i stay on 4.5 to 5m from day one

[litesong]

Oh, boy! Thot I was gonna miss the right minimum September Arctic sea ice estimate. But, jes' 2 days ago, the sea ice hit 4.49million km2. (which now includes me). Appears those that predicted 4.25 to 4.75 million km2 might be dead on. We'll see if the sea ice minimum drops anymore.....gettin' purdy late fer lotsa razzle dazzle, tho. But, tha's there AGW fer ya all.   

[Brigantine]

21% too high
46% correct
33% too low

[jdallen]

21% too high
46% correct
33% too low

... and 67% within one bucket of the final.  Not bad.

[litesong]

i stay on 4.5 to 5m from day one

I'll give ya a pick up for close to the cup & ya still shot par.

[Rob Dekker]

With the final result of the JAXA daily minimum being 4.457 on September 21 :



it looks like we did pretty good this year !