Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Don't read this thread  (Read 3484 times)

Ned W

  • Guest
Don't read this thread
« on: July 07, 2018, 01:53:03 AM »
Really, you don't want to read this.  OK?




I am just posting it to vent a bit, after 12+ years of watching ice melt and listening to people argue about ice melting.




Seriously, nothing below this line is worth reading.  You can click the back-arrow and go to some other thread where you'll find lots of informative, useful, or surprising information about melting ice.




-----------------------


OK.
So.

There is absolutely nothing special about 2018.  Period.  As I said in another thread just now, 2018 is just another year in a long, slow transition from an icy Arctic ocean to an intermittently and then seasonally ice-free Arctic ocean:



Year after year after year after year people will tell you that this year is special! unique! different!

It's not.

Oh, there will be minor differences in weather, currents, clouds.  But there are minor differences in weather, currents, clouds every year

And if every year is special, then no year is special.

Sure, 2018 could take a nosedive, and end up an outlier on the low side like 2012.  Or the melting process could stall out a bit, and end up as an outlier on the high side.  That's not special, it's just noise.

Some year (probably not this year, nor next year, nor the year after that) there will be a year where one day falls below the totally arbitrary threshold of 1 million km2 of ice.  That year won't be special either, and the following year will likely bounce back up, just as 2013 bounced back after 2012. 

What actually is special is the long, slow downward trend in the maximum, mean, and minimum lines from that graph.  It will take decades, but we're slowly and inexorably marching towards an ice-free Arctic ocean. 

The thing is, people don't want to hear that "this century is special".  We want to hear that "this year is special".  We need excitement and drama now now now now!

Well, tough luck.  It's not going to be exciting, it's going to be utterly boring.  As boring as watching ice melt.

Shared Humanity

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3254
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 123
  • Likes Given: 16
Re: Don't read this thread
« Reply #1 on: July 07, 2018, 02:02:58 AM »
I read that and it is pretty boring.

Ned W

  • Guest
Re: Don't read this thread
« Reply #2 on: July 07, 2018, 02:17:51 AM »
I dozed off briefly while writing it. 

Archimid

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1664
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 81
  • Likes Given: 115
Re: Don't read this thread
« Reply #3 on: July 07, 2018, 03:11:19 AM »
Your whole argument is based on a 2 dimensional representation of the whole Arctic System. You ignore volume, temperature, humidity, salinity, albedo, etc. Most important you ignore global warming and climate change.

 I hate to say it but you are correct, there is nothing to see here.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Martin Gisser

  • Guest
Re: Don't read this thread
« Reply #4 on: July 07, 2018, 03:24:49 AM »
Like the penguin watching if his glacier melts in my favorite lullaby:


Ned W

  • Guest
Re: Don't read this thread
« Reply #5 on: July 07, 2018, 03:34:53 AM »
Most important you ignore global warming and climate change.

On the contrary, "global warming and climate change" is the whole point. 

I don't blame you for missing this, since the post itself is quite dull, but as I said:

Quote from: me
What actually is special is the long, slow downward trend in the maximum, mean, and minimum lines from that graph.  It will take decades, but we're slowly and inexorably marching towards an ice-free Arctic ocean.

"slowly and inevitably marching towards an ice-free Arctic ocean"

because of "global warming and climate change".

Contrary to what some here will tell you, I'm not a denialist.  Not even a "lukewarmer with a spreadsheet" in the quaint phrase of someone or other. 

I'm an alarmist.   It's just that I'm an alarmist who's been watching this ice melt for too long and has been told one too many times that "this year is different!"

It's not different.  Part of that not-being-different is "global warming and climate change", which we continue to inflict upon the Arctic thanks to all these fossil fuels we keep burning.

I hate to say it but you are correct, there is nothing to see here.

Well, you can't say I didn't warn you...

Martin Gisser

  • Guest
Re: Don't read this thread
« Reply #6 on: July 07, 2018, 03:41:08 AM »
No phase transition into something less dull to be expected?

Ned W

  • Guest
Re: Don't read this thread
« Reply #7 on: July 07, 2018, 03:44:11 AM »
Martin, that is an extremely nice song.  Thanks for posting the video.  Actually, you should put it somewhere better than a thread called "Don't read this thread".


Ned W

  • Guest
Re: Don't read this thread
« Reply #8 on: July 07, 2018, 03:45:11 AM »
No phase transition into something less dull to be expected?
Do you expect something like that in 2018?

bbr2314

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1309
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 77
  • Likes Given: 14
Re: Don't read this thread
« Reply #9 on: July 07, 2018, 03:48:59 AM »
I would actually suggest that posts like these do more damage to scientific discourse etc than the Republicans. This is a tree falling within a forest not in the middle of nowhere.

Martin Gisser

  • Guest
Re: Don't read this thread
« Reply #10 on: July 07, 2018, 03:54:56 AM »
Martin, that is an extremely nice song.  Thanks for posting the video.  Actually, you should put it somewhere better than a thread called "Don't read this thread".
Now those who don't read it have something to listen. :) Alas it's poetically untranslateable German.

No phase transition into something less dull to be expected?
Do you expect something like that in 2018?
I'm no ice etc. expert. Have been expecting something nonlinear happen over the past years/decade+... But I got a bit lulled. :)  Looking at the trend alone the statistician in me sees almost nothing (almost boring linear). But that's not how a complex system under stress/shock should behave. Maybe it's like with the Roman empire. No Roman saw it collapse. The big system shock is too slow for us impatient humans.

Ned W

  • Guest
Re: Don't read this thread
« Reply #11 on: July 07, 2018, 04:02:25 AM »
Martin, that is an extremely nice song.  Thanks for posting the video.  Actually, you should put it somewhere better than a thread called "Don't read this thread".
Now those who don't read it have something to listen. :) Alas it's poetically untranslateable German.

OK, so on that note (ha!) here's some poetically untranslatable Portuguese:



Even Jobim himself couldn't translate it; his English version is weirdly different. 

And the tune has a tendency to get stuck in one's head.

No phase transition into something less dull to be expected?
Do you expect something like that in 2018?
I'm no ice etc. expert. Have been expecting something nonlinear happen over the past years/decade+... But I got a bit lulled. :)  Looking at the trend alone the statistician in me sees almost nothing (almost boring linear). But that's not how a complex system under stress/shock should behave. Maybe it's like with the Roman empire. No Roman saw it collapse. The big system shock is too slow for us impatient humans.

It's true we are rather impatient.

Ned W

  • Guest
Re: Don't read this thread
« Reply #12 on: July 07, 2018, 04:24:09 AM »




Here's the same graph for PIOMAS volume:


bbr2314

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1309
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 77
  • Likes Given: 14
Re: Don't read this thread
« Reply #13 on: July 07, 2018, 04:25:43 AM »
that's how the graph looks for my functional grey matter when reading ur posts

Wherestheice

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 252
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 48
  • Likes Given: 14
Re: Don't read this thread
« Reply #14 on: July 07, 2018, 04:27:53 AM »
Really, you don't want to read this.  OK?




I am just posting it to vent a bit, after 12+ years of watching ice melt and listening to people argue about ice melting.

 


Seriously, nothing below this line is worth reading.  You can click the back-arrow and go to some other thread where you'll find lots of informative, useful, or surprising information about melting ice.




-----------------------


OK.
So.

There is absolutely nothing special about 2018.  Period.  As I said in another thread just now, 2018 is just another year in a long, slow transition from an icy Arctic ocean to an intermittently and then seasonally ice-free Arctic ocean:



Year after year after year after year people will tell you that this year is special! unique! different!

It's not.

Oh, there will be minor differences in weather, currents, clouds.  But there are minor differences in weather, currents, clouds every year

And if every year is special, then no year is special.

Sure, 2018 could take a nosedive, and end up an outlier on the low side like 2012.  Or the melting process could stall out a bit, and end up as an outlier on the high side.  That's not special, it's just noise.

Some year (probably not this year, nor next year, nor the year after that) there will be a year where one day falls below the totally arbitrary threshold of 1 million km2 of ice.  That year won't be special either, and the following year will likely bounce back up, just as 2013 bounced back after 2012. 

What actually is special is the long, slow downward trend in the maximum, mean, and minimum lines from that graph.  It will take decades, but we're slowly and inexorably marching towards an ice-free Arctic ocean. 

The thing is, people don't want to hear that "this century is special".  We want to hear that "this year is special".  We need excitement and drama now now now now!

Well, tough luck.  It's not going to be exciting, it's going to be utterly boring.  As boring as watching ice melt.

With all due respect I disagree. The ice free arctic is gonna happen soon and when it does it will be a very special year because an ice free arctic is gonna have massive implications for the world. The graph you use makes the whole arctic system seem less chaotic than it actually is. The arctic is changing much faster than you are suggesting.
"When the ice goes..... F***

bbr2314

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1309
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 77
  • Likes Given: 14
Re: Don't read this thread
« Reply #15 on: July 07, 2018, 04:41:05 AM »
why does this nutbag get a dedicated thread when i cant post maps and analysis in the main disco area... wtf? NEVEN?

if these are the priorities of the forum then i will not post here...!

Ned W

  • Guest
Re: Don't read this thread
« Reply #16 on: July 07, 2018, 04:42:47 AM »
With all due respect I disagree. The ice free arctic is gonna happen soon and when it does it will be a very special year because an ice free arctic is gonna have massive implications for the world. The graph you use makes the whole arctic system seem less chaotic than it actually is. The arctic is changing much faster than you are suggesting.

Thanks.

I'm agnostic about how soon is "soon".  I agree that the Arctic is changing in big and important ways. 

How can I say this?  I've just been doing this for a long time, and every single year I have people telling me that this year is crazy, it's totally unlike every other year, what's happening right now is utterly unprecedented and there's no way you could compare it to any other year.

I spend as much time as anyone else here messing around in the monthly "poll" threads.  But what we're voting on in the polls is just ... noise.  What really matters is the trend.

Maybe this is provocative, but I would also say that crossing the official "ice-free" line (1.00 million km2 of ice) is not all that meaningful.  The difference between 1.05 and 0.95 million km2 is not all that important.  What's important is going from 7 million to 4 million km2 at minimum over the past 40 years, and going from 4 million to 1 million over the next however many years.  The last 0.1 million drop that takes us over the official threshold is practically meaningless by comparison, except perhaps in terms of public awareness.  That's what I meant when I said that the first ice-free year "wouldn't be special". 
« Last Edit: July 07, 2018, 05:17:08 AM by Ned W »

Archimid

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1664
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 81
  • Likes Given: 115
Re: Don't read this thread
« Reply #17 on: July 07, 2018, 05:14:44 AM »
Well, you can't say I didn't warn you...

Of course you did. And thank you, although if you named the thread "You must read this thread" it would be more effective at keeping me from reading it.

 




Here's the same graph for PIOMAS volume:



Thanks for the volume and extent graphs in the same post and with both graphs down to 0. They tell different stories.

Another piece of the story .





 
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Ned W

  • Guest
Re: Don't read this thread
« Reply #18 on: July 07, 2018, 05:31:52 AM »
Well, you can't say I didn't warn you...

Of course you did. And thank you, although if you named the thread "You must read this thread" it would be more effective at keeping me from reading it.

Heh.  OK, fair enough.





Here's the same graph for PIOMAS volume:



Thanks for the volume and extent graphs in the same post and with both graphs down to 0. They tell different stories.

Another piece of the story .



Yes, that's obviously central to what's happening.  Thanks for posting it. 

My take on that would be that 2018 probably won't set a new temperature record.  That doesn't mean the planet has stopped warming, it just means that the inexorable rise in temperature (caused by our dumping lots of fossil carbon into the atmosphere) is accompanied by a lot of year-to-year "noise" from ENSO etc.  But it will in general keep going upward until we come to our senses and stop trashing the planet.

Archimid

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1664
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 81
  • Likes Given: 115
Re: Don't read this thread
« Reply #19 on: July 07, 2018, 05:51:22 AM »
I can certainly agree with that. Unless something unseen is at work or something new happens this year is in line with best years of the last 7-8 years.

There is always the risk that something unseen or new completely changes the system. That the system is changing and degrading increases those chances. Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if we get the first significant partial "poofs" over large areas of the Arctic this year, but I think that is unlikely this year. We had a strong La Niña, a few big volcanoes going off and strong snow cover relative to the last ten years.

Lets see what happen next.

Another piece of the puzzle. A repost but a good one.

Global Temperatures and El Niño/La Niña


I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

binntho

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 291
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 47
  • Likes Given: 31
Re: Don't read this thread
« Reply #20 on: July 07, 2018, 08:53:35 AM »
Maybe it's like with the Roman empire. No Roman saw it collapse. The big system shock is too slow for us impatient humans.
The collapse of the Roman empire took centuries, and I suspect it didn't become a "collapse" until historians began looking at in modern times.

Other than that I totally agree with Ned W after only some three or four years of watching this forum. Every year we get a chorus of doomsayers that think they understand everything so much better than everybody else. Funnily enough, every year the chorus has new members - wonder if the unusually noisome pack of doomsayers this year will still be so cock-sure next year.

On the other hand, the Ice will melt out eventually, and I (and many others apparently) think that the end could be quite sudden. But this year? Nope.

binntho

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 291
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 47
  • Likes Given: 31
Re: Don't read this thread
« Reply #21 on: July 07, 2018, 08:55:34 AM »
why does this nutbag get a dedicated thread when i cant post maps and analysis in the main disco area... wtf? NEVEN?

if these are the priorities of the forum then i will not post here...!
That's actually quite funny bbr - but not likely to garner support for your rather tiresome whining and "I know best" puerility.

Neven

  • Administrator
  • ASIF Royalty
  • *****
  • Posts: 6339
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 283
  • Likes Given: 195
Re: Don't read this thread
« Reply #22 on: July 07, 2018, 10:08:55 AM »
why does this nutbag get a dedicated thread when i cant post maps and analysis in the main disco area... wtf? NEVEN?

if these are the priorities of the forum then i will not post here...!

He warned you not to read this.  ;D

I don't see a problem here. This thread will disappear by itself within weeks. And yes, on the surface there seems to be nothing special about this year, but there are a couple of strange things. Still, I don't expect a record low minimum.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

oren

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3235
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 361
  • Likes Given: 783
Re: Don't read this thread
« Reply #23 on: July 07, 2018, 10:21:13 AM »




Here's the same graph for PIOMAS volume:


I think these two charts together show that the extent chart by itself is somewhat misleading as to the rate of change. Yes what counts is the trend, each year is noise (though far from boring) and the know-it-alls chorus can be tiresome, but the rate of change is much faster than implied by the extent graph on its own. If the "slow transition" doesn't stop the bottom volume trend, we'll hit the ice-free point way before 2030.

gerontocrat

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 4303
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 487
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: Don't read this thread
« Reply #24 on: July 07, 2018, 11:07:43 AM »

I am just posting it to vent a bit, after 12+ years of watching ice melt and listening to people argue about ice melting.


A mere 12+ years. Johnny come lately !

Loved the "shriek, horror" reactions.

But like it or not, arctic sea ice decline (extent, area, and volume) still seems to be in that part of the curve that approximates well to a straight line over the decades. Many natural systems behave like that, until a point is reached when the system breaks down and collapses. My favourite is eutrophication, a water body's oxygen levels only gradually declining as more nitrates and phosphates are washed into it - up to a point when a small additional amount causes total deoxygenation.

Something like this is my speculation on the future for Arctic Sea Ice - but when, that is the question.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Ned W

  • Guest
Re: Don't read this thread
« Reply #25 on: July 07, 2018, 01:30:38 PM »

I am just posting it to vent a bit, after 12+ years of watching ice melt and listening to people argue about ice melting.


A mere 12+ years. Johnny come lately !

Well, the "plus" in "12+" makes it an "open-ended bin", as we say around here.  I can't remember how long I've been doing this (going online every day or two to see how the ice is doing RIGHT NOW...)

When did it even first become possible to do this?  I think Cryosphere Today was one of the earliest routinely-updated sources (the Wayback Machine has it going back to December 2004) and the NSIDC sea ice news archives go back to October 2006.  SkepticalScience started late in 2007, I believe.  I was definitely an "early adopter", but honestly can't remember when I started obsessively watching the ice melt on a daily basis (this sounds like a confession from some kind of deranged self-help group).

Loved the "shriek, horror" reactions.

Honestly, that wasn't my intent.

But like it or not, arctic sea ice decline (extent, area, and volume) still seems to be in that part of the curve that approximates well to a straight line over the decades. Many natural systems behave like that, until a point is reached when the system breaks down and collapses. My favourite is eutrophication, a water body's oxygen levels only gradually declining as more nitrates and phosphates are washed into it - up to a point when a small additional amount causes total deoxygenation.

Something like this is my speculation on the future for Arctic Sea Ice - but when, that is the question.

Yes, but I wonder how often crashes like that happen to big systems, like the entire Arctic ice pack?  I mean, at geologic time scales this is a crash, because it's happening over decades rather than millennia.  In 2007 and again in 2012 it looked briefly like all the ice could just go "poof" in the next few years, but that didn't happen and now I am somewhat inclined towards Chris Reynolds's "slow transition" argument.

Greenland ice cores do seem to show big "flips" in North Atlantic climate that happened in relatively short times within the glacial portion of the glacial-interglacial cycle. 

but the rate of change is much faster than implied by the extent graph on its own. If the "slow transition" doesn't stop the bottom volume trend, we'll hit the ice-free point way before 2030.

Yes, that is the paradox that we've all been hung up on for some time now.

Another piece of the puzzle. A repost but a good one.

Global Temperatures and El Niño/La Niña



Yes, that's a great one.  I'm very familiar with the static version but hadn't seen the video clip.  Thanks for posting it.  It's remarkable what a good job disaggregating the temperature data by ENSO status does at reducing noise.

This thread will disappear by itself within weeks.

If history is anything to go by, it will melt off the first page of the thread-list for the ASI category within 2 weeks or so after people start following the advice in the thread title.

Of course, as we all know, whether or not "history is anything to go by" is a big point of dispute around here.  Maybe this time will be different!  Instead of a slow transition to obscurity, the whole thread could go "poof" today if Neven hits the right key.  We'll have to watch this thread to see which path it takes ... but watching the thread would be contrary to the request in the thread title.   

Paradoxes all around us...     :-\





... and with that, I'll stop bumping the thread and let the melting process (or sudden "poof") proceed.  Thanks to all for the feedback.

Dharma Rupa

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 458
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 39
  • Likes Given: 22
Re: Don't read this thread
« Reply #26 on: July 07, 2018, 01:51:40 PM »
I have to agree with one thing.  We are not going to know the "special year" until after the fact.  But I don't expect the ice to end with a whimper.

be cause

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 358
  • Citizenship .. a Lurker gets asylum
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 19
  • Likes Given: 28
Re: Don't read this thread
« Reply #27 on: July 07, 2018, 04:40:55 PM »
damn .. I read it .. where can I get help ?  b.c.
be the cause of only good
and love all beings as you should
and the 'God' of all Creation
will .. through you .. transform all nations :)

Dharma Rupa

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 458
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 39
  • Likes Given: 22
Re: Don't read this thread
« Reply #28 on: July 07, 2018, 06:28:13 PM »
At some point there is not going to be enough "fresh" water to keep the "salty" water covered....that could just as well happen on December 21st as June 21st.  I think when it happens the effect will rip across the ocean in a matter of days.  I also think we cannot predict when it will happen.  (There is in fact some reason for it to happen when the ice is trying to form as that is when the warm subsurface water has the least covering fresh water.)


gerontocrat

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 4303
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 487
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: Don't read this thread
« Reply #29 on: July 07, 2018, 09:06:12 PM »
damn .. I read it .. where can I get help ?  b.c.
Too late. Doomed.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

DaveHitz

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 16
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Don't read this thread
« Reply #30 on: July 07, 2018, 10:12:04 PM »
I subscribe to the "POOF theory": One year the camel's back will get one straw to many. An early melt will dramatically increase solar absorption. Or the fresh water covering will vanish. Or will get three GACs in a row. And then POOF: things will feel dramatically different that year, instead of just the minor variations that Ned describes. (Even with 2012, the excitement was more a record broken than a fundamental change. For me, the excitement was, in large part, the expectation that the year marked a fundamental transition that didn't end up happening.)

Here's my question: Will the POOF—a real POOF I mean, an exciting POOF, a radically different POOF—last just one year and mark the transition to a radically new phase? Will it be a multi-year POOF with the same POOF repeating? Or a series of alternating POOF and non-POOF years? A series of surprisingly different POOFs?

In other words, if we accept that Ned is right that things are boring now, what are the odds that things ever get interesting? Will it be POOF, and then a new boring state immediately the next year? Or will the first POOF mark the beginning of a few interesting years until we reach a new boring state. Of course, the new boring state might even still be transitional, until some further POOF and some other boring state, perhaps eventually leading to a year-round, truly ice-free arctic. But will we ever get a good show?

gerontocrat

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 4303
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 487
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: Don't read this thread
« Reply #31 on: July 07, 2018, 10:26:10 PM »
A year round ice-free Arctic might be extremely boring. Trouble is, real life just ain't Hollywood.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

magnamentis

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1901
    • View Profile
    • Philosophy Ethics Numerology Mikrocirkulation Vaskular Therapie Gesundheit Blut Gesundheit Schmerzen Multiple Sklerose Diabetes Immunsystem Fibromyalgia Modular Mobile Computing iOS Software OSX Android Custom Rom Rooted
  • Liked: 72
  • Likes Given: 106
Re: Don't read this thread
« Reply #32 on: July 08, 2018, 02:12:58 AM »
The collapse of the Roman empire took centuries, and I suspect it didn't become a "collapse" until historians began looking at in modern times.

Other than that I totally agree with Ned W after only some three or four years of watching this forum. Every year we get a chorus of doomsayers that think they understand everything so much better than everybody else. Funnily enough, every year the chorus has new members - wonder if the unusually noisome pack of doomsayers this year will still be so cock-sure next year.

On the other hand, the Ice will melt out eventually, and I (and many others apparently) think that the end could be quite sudden. But this year? Nope.

+1 and in addition to that:

a) can't see why there is always so much opposition to everyone who is trying to point out some truth

b) this should not be about who is right but about doing our joint best to gather as much knowledge as possible, this includes errors and extremes at times.

c) there is an actual empire that started to collapse with all and the same ingredients than the late roman, greek and egyptian empire just to name a few. there is a thread on the matter even.

i like this thread no matter if every detail is exactly true and no matter whether we shall see a kind of sudden death within 5 years or in the year 7 or 12 or any other from now. thing is it will happen and trying to be prepared is nothing that should be criticised so much and since none of us knows exactly when and all the details we should just read and learn as much as we can.

as to who can post what, some of us are a bit on the angry side at times (like myself) and again others are constantly exaggerating and in the process damage credibility. two things to learn
beside other things like claiming bragging rights for stating the obvious, that's the real boring
stuff because to see that everyone can search the web, no special skills needed.

a reasonably good prediction and assessment is much braver and difficult to achieve and logically comes along with many errors while even from those errors we can learn if we really want.
« Last Edit: July 08, 2018, 02:28:56 AM by magnamentis »
http://magnamentis.com
Knowledge, Understanding & Insight Are Among The Best Sources For Personal Freedom & Vitality !

Coffee Drinker

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 66
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: Don't read this thread
« Reply #33 on: July 08, 2018, 06:21:27 AM »
Personally I think the first year without summer ice will be quite unspectacular.

The preceding years will already have approached the arbitrary threshold of "ice free" and then one year it will just slip over this threshold. Interesting from a statistical and historical point of view but no more exciting than the years before.

Stephan

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 325
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 91
  • Likes Given: 47
Re: Don't read this thread
« Reply #34 on: July 08, 2018, 09:25:42 AM »
Personally I think the first year without summer ice will be quite unspectacular.

The preceding years will already have approached the arbitrary threshold of "ice free" and then one year it will just slip over this threshold. Interesting from a statistical and historical point of view but no more exciting than the years before.
I think that the first ice free year (from the extrapolation of volume data it should happen around 2025 ± 2 years) will be extremely spectacular because then the whole world will see that we are in deep trouble concerning climate change. I also believe that the distribution of heat, wind, air masses and ocean currents will change when there is (almost) no ice left in the Arctic Ocean.
The problem then is: It will be too late for a turnaround to a less warmer world...

Forest Dweller

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 137
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 32
Re: Don't read this thread
« Reply #35 on: July 08, 2018, 09:32:18 AM »
I too ignored the warning and read this thread...then all my hair off and i suddenly grew a hunchback!  :P
Seriously, i really don't mind a little humor or emotion and saw some interesting discussion or data new to me anyway.
(thnx Arachmid/Magnamentis and others.)
I don't mind people swearing either, a lot of us are foul mouths or i suspect holding it in...that is why swearing exists.
When plain vocabulary fails at describing reality we swear....we're not all gifted speakers i guess.

As long as i don't see the astonishingly low level of conversation we know from social media, the ad hominem and trolling, hatred etc it's a good forum for me.
Thanks to Neven for that of course!

Now here is my prediction for the Blue Ocean Event:
Have a lovely day!
 ;D

Forest Dweller

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 137
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 32
Re: Don't read this thread
« Reply #36 on: July 08, 2018, 09:49:51 AM »
Personally I think the first year without summer ice will be quite unspectacular.

The preceding years will already have approached the arbitrary threshold of "ice free" and then one year it will just slip over this threshold. Interesting from a statistical and historical point of view but no more exciting than the years before.
I think that the first ice free year (from the extrapolation of volume data it should happen around 2025 ± 2 years) will be extremely spectacular because then the whole world will see that we are in deep trouble concerning climate change. I also believe that the distribution of heat, wind, air masses and ocean currents will change when there is (almost) no ice left in the Arctic Ocean.
The problem then is: It will be too late for a turnaround to a less warmer world...

Good point Stephan.
Although it may not be the climatology big event some imagine, it will cause a big societal stink!
For one thing the deniers and idiots claiming we are already in a new ice age will have to face it, and indeed they will have to before already...that involves a lot in society and people's behavior including authorities, lobby groups, industry and so on.
A fair few must already be fouling their underwear right now watching the massive heatwaves happen...what will they do?
I suspect some will simply crawl back under their rock while others shout conspiracy.

As someone mentioned here above how we had the La Niña and a fair bit of volcanic activity in 2017, which was ignored almost completely.
The ice age idiots must have really loved that, but it is over for them now...peace.

Pmt111500

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1626
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 31
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Don't read this thread
« Reply #37 on: July 08, 2018, 10:05:14 AM »
Personally I think the first year without summer ice will be quite unspectacular.

The preceding years will already have approached the arbitrary threshold of "ice free" and then one year it will just slip over this threshold. Interesting from a statistical and historical point of view but no more exciting than the years before.
I think that the first ice free year (from the extrapolation of volume data it should happen around 2025 ± 2 years) will be extremely spectacular because then the whole world will see that we are in deep trouble concerning climate change. I also believe that the distribution of heat, wind, air masses and ocean currents will change when there is (almost) no ice left in the Arctic Ocean.
The problem then is: It will be too late for a turnaround to a less warmer world...
Simply, volume loss should be at least X^3/2 faster than prediction given by area which itself is at least 15% faster than prediction by extent  :P. Still pretty much believing the threshold to keep it below +2°C above preindustrial was crossed in 2009 and the current goverment of Trumpistan is making it sure. Quite much believing the Greenland melt should after BOE(Arctic) be pretty much constant thus drowning the lower parts of Miami (assisted by wais melting) and a bunch other coastal cities by the year 2075 (see, sensibly setting this far out, far enough not to be alive then). So kind of a whimper, not some apocalypse the OP seems to think the faster projections are. Then again, the house I'm living is older than the 57 years to 2075. It's possible it'll outlive coastal Boston so trying to take care of it.
Amateur observations of Sea Ice since 2003.

Neven

  • Administrator
  • ASIF Royalty
  • *****
  • Posts: 6339
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 283
  • Likes Given: 195
Re: Don't read this thread
« Reply #38 on: July 08, 2018, 10:12:47 AM »
If we think that a melting season that breaks the 2012 record, or goes even further and approaches ice-free conditions (ie below 1 million km2 area), will be unspectacular, it says more about us than about the melting season. Of course, we humans are easily bored, which is one of the reasons we're in this situation.  ;) We are already completely used to this 'new abnormal', and will probably be so again after a next state change.

Arctic sea ice loss is going to continue to creep into the collective consciousness. I think the real 'excitement' will be found in the consequences of any state change in Arctic sea ice, especially changes in weather patterns at lower latitudes.

Either way, I think that as a collective we'll be open to the possibility of new records happening when they actually do, and it won't just be one or two Galileos who use all kinds of esoteric maps that few people know how to read (and no one knows how reliable they are) to announce the end is nigh.

But this melting season is a bit weird, in the sense that CAB numbers are still very low, while total Arctic numbers are high. It also 'feels' warmer and sunnier than previous years that are well below 2018 on the extent charts. But that's something I have to look into further, because 'feels' doesn't mean a thing. Compare, compare, compare.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

oren

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3235
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 361
  • Likes Given: 783
Re: Don't read this thread
« Reply #39 on: July 08, 2018, 11:23:42 AM »
Well said Neven.

echoughton

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 69
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 7
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: Don't read this thread
« Reply #40 on: July 08, 2018, 11:32:14 AM »
If we think that a melting season that breaks the 2012 record, or goes even further and approaches ice-free conditions (ie below 1 million km2 area), will be unspectacular, it says more about us than about the melting season. Of course, we humans are easily bored, which is one of the reasons we're in this situation.  ;) We are already completely used to this 'new abnormal', and will probably be so again after a next state change.

Arctic sea ice loss is going to continue to creep into the collective consciousness. I think the real 'excitement' will be found in the consequences of any state change in Arctic sea ice, especially changes in weather patterns at lower latitudes.

Either way, I think that as a collective we'll be open to the possibility of new records happening when they actually do, and it won't just be one or two Galileos who use all kinds of esoteric maps that few people know how to read (and no one knows how reliable they are) to announce the end is nigh.

But this melting season is a bit weird, in the sense that CAB numbers are still very low, while total Arctic numbers are high. It also 'feels' warmer and sunnier than previous years that are well below 2018 on the extent charts. But that's something I have to look into further, because 'feels' doesn't mean a thing. Compare, compare, compare.

Good points, Mr. Leader. Just want to say thank you for a TERRIFIC forum.

Stephan

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 325
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 91
  • Likes Given: 47
Re: Don't read this thread
« Reply #41 on: July 08, 2018, 05:07:56 PM »
[...] It also 'feels' warmer and sunnier than previous years that are well below 2018 on the extent charts. [...]
Here in Central Germany we suffer from drought in most places and extreme precipitation in a few other places with washed-away roads and cars swimming down the road in brownish swirling waters. The average summer usually holds ~40-50 days of max. temp. above 25°C. With July 6, we had the 51st day of more than 25°C and the summer is not even half passed. This is the earliest date since temp were observed that this day is so early in the year. So here it is warmer than average. Climate change is on its way, slowly coming and constantly worsening...

Dharma Rupa

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 458
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 39
  • Likes Given: 22
Re: Don't read this thread
« Reply #42 on: July 08, 2018, 06:06:11 PM »
[...] It also 'feels' warmer and sunnier than previous years that are well below 2018 on the extent charts. [...]
Here in Central Germany we suffer from drought in most places and extreme precipitation in a few other places with washed-away roads and cars swimming down the road in brownish swirling waters. The average summer usually holds ~40-50 days of max. temp. above 25°C. With July 6, we had the 51st day of more than 25°C and the summer is not even half passed. This is the earliest date since temp were observed that this day is so early in the year. So here it is warmer than average. Climate change is on its way, slowly coming and constantly worsening...

Does that mean that the Hadley Cell is messed up and the Arctic Cell has collapsed?  Certainly, since the end of 2015 the Arctic has been wetter; which has meant warmer winters and colder summers.

The rest of the climatic reorganization is less clear and more speculative.


Ned W

  • Guest
Re: Don't read this thread
« Reply #43 on: July 08, 2018, 06:24:30 PM »
But this melting season is a bit weird, in the sense that CAB numbers are still very low, while total Arctic numbers are high. It also 'feels' warmer and sunnier than previous years that are well below 2018 on the extent charts. But that's something I have to look into further, because 'feels' doesn't mean a thing. Compare, compare, compare.

Yes, exactly.  The (disgruntled) first post in this thread was provoked by someone telling me that it is illegitimate to compare 2018 to 2015 or any other year, because this year is unprecedented, unique, utterly different, "another world" from the ancient past of ... three years ago. 

Watching the ice melt would be even more boring if we couldn't make comparisons to the past and use that to try to make predictions about the future.  That's how we learn things!

Susan Anderson

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 489
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 31
  • Likes Given: 183
Re: Don't read this thread
« Reply #44 on: July 08, 2018, 09:50:39 PM »
Brilliant title to thread, and lots of good fun (and sadness) to be had here. Good!

As to ice free, y'all are forgetting Jennifer Francis and the deep disturbance of circulation south of the Arctic. We ain't seen nuttin' yet. Nothing to pretend is nothing there.

@DaveHitz and his POOF theory is right on the money, my opinion.

(lost image was from worldview: Arctic cyclonic view]


[Stolen from personal communication from Tenney Naumer ...]
« Last Edit: July 09, 2018, 02:33:03 AM by Susan Anderson »

Hyperion

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 375
  • Admiral Franklin of the McGillicuddy Highland Navy
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 132
  • Likes Given: 64
Re: Don't read this thread
« Reply #45 on: July 08, 2018, 10:36:03 PM »
You're ALL WRONG!
BURN ALL YOUR TOYS!
the planets getting colder, and we just don't know why.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GP9_DQM2rwc
( Little inferno. My 4 year old niece's favorite song)
Policy: The diversion of NZ aluminum production to build giant space-mirrors to melt the icecaps and destroy the foolish greed-worshiping cities of man. Thereby returning man to the sea, which he should never have left in the first place.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McGillicuddy_Serious_Party

Dharma Rupa

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 458
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 39
  • Likes Given: 22
Re: Don't read this thread
« Reply #46 on: July 08, 2018, 11:15:54 PM »


Personally, I think she is painting too rosy a picture.  Our fate was sealed over 100 years ago.  On the other hand, I don't know when the [mathematical] catastrophe will happen.

harpy

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 80
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: Don't read this thread
« Reply #47 on: July 08, 2018, 11:27:28 PM »
But...but Guy McPherson says that 2018 is probably it. 

You mean to say I shouldn't have maxed out all my credit cards?




Michael Hauber

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 757
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 21
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: Don't read this thread
« Reply #48 on: July 10, 2018, 03:24:27 AM »
Took me a while but I eventually read this thread, and was amused. 

Maybe if the thread was titled '10 reasons why you must read this thread - no 7 will blow your mind' I would have refused to read it.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

Andre Koelewijn

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 19
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: Don't read this thread
« Reply #49 on: July 10, 2018, 08:32:57 AM »
That's why psychology can be so interesting.

Likewise, the general ignorance of climate change by that part of the world population which could make a difference is interesting.