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Bruce Steele

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #100 on: October 17, 2019, 12:50:42 AM »
Oren, That last bit about the elite “20%” who would sell us austerity to maintain their lifestyle has a note of truth in it however.  Economically we are of course the 20% as is Greer, his readers and most everyone in Europe and the U.S.  Populism without someone else to step on is a no starter so we invent enemies and surprise surprise it is those damned elites !  A familiar ring, and wait until we do hit a bad spot in the growth model. 
 
Edited , don’t forward bad thoughts.reminder to self.
 
 
 



« Last Edit: October 17, 2019, 03:10:14 AM by Bruce Steele »

wili

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #101 on: October 17, 2019, 05:33:44 AM »
oren wrote: "...denial in disguise..."

That's why I've long called him a 'crypto-denialist'
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

sidd

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #102 on: October 17, 2019, 06:59:49 AM »
Greer may be many things, but i do not think he is a climate denialist.

As to:

"The shrill claims of impending doom, the insistence that we’re in a climate emergency and everyone has to accept drastic restrictions that climate change activists show no trace of willingness to embrace in their own lives, make perfect sense if the game plan is to buffalo most of the people in the world’s industrial countries into accepting a sharply lower standard of living “for the planet,” so that the upper twenty per cent or so can maintain their current lifestyles unchanged."

he might find more traction replacing "twenty per cent" by "0.1 per cent"

He seems quite impressed by Spengler and various mystics like Crowley. If you have the patience to read his fiction (although i would not recommend it) he spells out his preferred futures. They seem about as simplistic as Heinein's though less readable. Not that Heinlein is very readable ...

That said, he did predict Trump victory about a year in advance. I suppose even a blind squirrel finds an acorn now and then.

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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #103 on: October 17, 2019, 01:08:44 PM »
He is no denier, his novel about America half a millennium from now has a seaport at Nashville.
His point is that “ Do as I say, not as I do” is a nonstarter at getting people to change their behavior.
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etienne

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #104 on: October 17, 2019, 09:04:42 PM »
Maybe he is not a denier, but he minimises risks in a way that I can't agree with. His little ice age theory that would have happend because of trees in excess in the Americas also gives false hopes.
He is also wrong when he says that climates activists just want to be able to continue their oil consumption. Many make a real effort to reduce their carbon footprint.
I also believe that the very rich are rich because of our consumption, if we reduce our needs, it would reduce their incomes, so they have no interest in the degrowth concept.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #105 on: November 10, 2019, 04:49:44 PM »
Many signs of peak oil and decline
Posted on November 1, 2019 by energyskeptic
http://energyskeptic.com/2019/failing-oil-and-gas-companies-a-sign-of-peak-oil/
Quote
Recently the IEA 2018 World Energy Outlook predicted an oil crunch could happen as soon as 2023.  Oil supermajors are expected to have 10 years of reserve life or more, Shell is down to just 8 years.
Political shortages are as big a problem as geological depletion. At least 90% of remaining global oil is in government hands, especially Saudi Arabia and other countries in the middle east that vulnerable to war, drought, and political instability.
And in 2018, the U.S. accounted for 98% of global oil production growth and since 2008, the U.S. accounted for 73.2% of the global increase in production (see Rapier below).   What really matters is peak diesel, which I explained in “When trucks stop running”, and fracked oil has very little diesel, much of it is only good for plastics, and yet America may well be the last gasp of the oil age if production isn’t going up elsewhere.
And you can't do most transportation with other energy sources, at least until EVs using renewable energy comes fully on line, which is likely to take the whole decade at least.
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wdmn

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #106 on: November 15, 2019, 06:43:53 PM »
Saudi Aramco, the world's most profitable company, is going public this weekend.

In the prospectus released for the IPO they predict that peak oil demand will occur in 2035. In one scenario it occurs as early as 2025, and in another as late as 2045, but 2035 is the date given as expected.

https://www.saudiaramco.com/-/media/images/investors/saudi-aramco-prospectus-en.pdf?la=en&hash=8DE2DCD689D6E383BB8F4C393033D8964C9F5585


Klondike Kat

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #107 on: November 15, 2019, 10:33:44 PM »
I cannot tell you many times peak oil has been predicted in the past.  No one knows.

wdmn

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #108 on: November 16, 2019, 12:08:13 AM »
Yes, I am aware of the uncertainty.

It is, however, interesting to hear when peak demand (which is not the same as peak oil) is being predicted by the world's largest producer of oil.


Klondike Kat

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #109 on: November 16, 2019, 02:46:03 PM »
Actually I missed that part - demand.  Thanks for clarifying.  I can see that as green energy increases and population growth slows.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #110 on: November 16, 2019, 02:53:16 PM »
KK, there will definitely be PO someday. Oil will run out in the 21st, or 22nd or whatever century. It is a finite resource. The only debate is about the time and the reason (exhaustion or replacement or termination of industrial civilization).
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #111 on: November 16, 2019, 03:16:15 PM »
This is a denier stance IMHO, just as I suspected. If "the people most concerned about climate change" would change their own lifestyles, climate change would still happen. It would not be drastic at all. There are not enough such people, and their lifestyle is already less consumerist and wasteful compared to the society around them.
Not that I support private jets, but they should be banned for everybody, not just for bleeding heart environmentalists.
And to focus the whole climate change stance on this, is denial in disguise. Ignoring the message and flinging it at the messenger.

oren, he wants to ban private jets for everybody.
He wants to ban all air travel.
He is just pointing out that "Do as I say and not as I do." is not the way to persuade people to change their habits.
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Klondike Kat

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #112 on: November 16, 2019, 08:04:56 PM »
KK, there will definitely be PO someday. Oil will run out in the 21st, or 22nd or whatever century. It is a finite resource. The only debate is about the time and the reason (exhaustion or replacement or termination of industrial civilization).

There will be, if we keep using oil.  This meme keeps resurfacing every 20 years or so, and then fades.

TerryM

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #113 on: November 16, 2019, 08:42:50 PM »
KK, there will definitely be PO someday. Oil will run out in the 21st, or 22nd or whatever century. It is a finite resource. The only debate is about the time and the reason (exhaustion or replacement or termination of industrial civilization).


Then all that we'll be left with will be abiotic and biotic natural gas.


We'll either continue to make use of this for heating, generation, transportation or whatever, and reduce it to CO2 and water, or we'll allow it to continue to pollute the atmosphere as the much stronger GHG, CH4 (Methane).
Terry

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #114 on: November 23, 2019, 02:02:18 AM »
An explanation of Peak Oil (it is the possible rate of production, given that as you pick the low hanging fruit the amount of energy obtained from expending a fixed amount of energy in extraction goes down):
http://crashoil.blogspot.com/2019/11/explicando-el-peak-oil-de-manera.html

Note: If it says it can't translate, just try again.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #115 on: December 09, 2019, 12:28:19 AM »
Peak diesel:
The diesel peak: 2019 edition
http://crashoil.blogspot.com/2019/12/el-pico-del-diesel-edicion-de-2019.html
Quote
Everything indicates that we are, indeed, reaching that critical moment for industrial civilization that represents the gradual decline in diesel production. Diesel is essential not only for a part of private automotive (mostly diesel in Europe, but not in the rest of the world), but especially for trucks, heavy machinery, tractors and ships. Diesel is truly the blood of our civilization and if he begins to lack our economy, he can suffer a true ischemia.

Again, you may have to ask it to translate a couple times.
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kassy

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #116 on: December 09, 2019, 02:31:25 PM »
When even the low hanging fruit is deadly you might not want to eat it...

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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #117 on: December 13, 2019, 01:46:22 PM »
Hidden and in sight of all
http://crashoil.blogspot.com/2019/12/escondida-y-la-vista-de-todos.html
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In fact, if the oil companies continue their increasing divestment, the oil production situation by 2040 could be catastrophic.




It should not be forgotten that oil represents one third of all primary energy consumed in the world, that coal (second source in importance, with almost 30%) is also in decline , that exactly the same happens to uranium and that Natural gas will probably peak next year. The energy sources that provide us with 90% of all the energy consumed today are touching their maximum production, and in the coming decades they will give us less and less energy, in a fall that will sometimes be more gradual and other times It will be faster. And despite so many exaggerations advertised in the media, renewable energies are not in a position to produce so much energy , much less in such a short time.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #118 on: May 24, 2020, 06:00:05 PM »
Giant oil field decline rates and peak oil
http://energyskeptic.com/2020/giant-oil-field-decline-rates-and-their-influence-on-world-oil-production/
Quote
Since giant oil fields dominate oil production, the rate they decline at is a good predictor of future world decline rates. In 2007, the 261 giants past their plateau phase were declining at an average rate of 6 % a year. Their decline rate will continue to increase by 0.15 % a year, to 6.15, 6.3, 6.45 % and so on. By 2030 these giants, and the other giants joining them, will be declining at an average rate of over 9 % a year (Hook 2009; IEA 2010).  At this exponentially increasing rate, it will take just 16 years to have just 10% of the oil that existed at peak production.

Dittmar (2016) estimates an annual production decline of 6 ± 1% which implies that after ten years, production will be only 54 ± 6% of what it was at the beginning of those ten years.
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The Walrus

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #119 on: May 26, 2020, 04:04:20 PM »
And yet global oil production has increased every year for the past decade. 

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #120 on: May 26, 2020, 04:20:01 PM »
And yet global oil production has increased every year for the past decade.

At higher energy costs.

The Walrus

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #121 on: May 26, 2020, 04:53:07 PM »
And yet global oil production has increased every year for the past decade.

At higher energy costs.

Not true.  Crude oil prices have generally declined.  In 2010, it was around $80/bbl, rising to $100 in 2013, but dropping to the $50-60 range in 2019.  While production experienced an average annual increase of 1.7%, process dropped by an average of 2.6% per year.

https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart

Bruce Steele

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #122 on: May 26, 2020, 06:09:27 PM »
At a higher energy cost of extraction ?  EROEI

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #123 on: May 26, 2020, 06:23:00 PM »
specify money or energy. I think one of you is talking energy and the other money

blumenkraft

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #124 on: May 26, 2020, 06:25:23 PM »
It's both.

I mean, how is it not a no-brainer that after all these years, the low hanging fruits are gone. Now you have to drill deeper, pump harder, move mountains to extract tar sands, fracking, ...

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #125 on: May 26, 2020, 06:32:09 PM »
Poison the water level, emit some methane here and there...
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #126 on: May 26, 2020, 07:20:24 PM »
It's both.

I mean, how is it not a no-brainer that after all these years, the low hanging fruits are gone. Now you have to drill deeper, pump harder, move mountains to extract tar sands, fracking, ...
I don't disagree that oil gets harder to find and extract as easier sources get used up. They also can and often are interrelated.

Money is tied to economics and influenced by many factors. Fracking used to have a higher break even point. Innovation, market forces and regulation are some of things that change the dollar costs. Now fracking is much cheaper than it once was.  so even though wells are deeper dollar costs can and do go down.  I suppose if you attach a dollar value to environmental costs, though no dollar value replaces what is lost, that is less true.

In general overall energy costs just increase. Though here too some efficiencies are possible.


The Walrus

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Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« Reply #127 on: May 27, 2020, 03:35:19 PM »
For the consumer, the only thing that matters in the price they pay.  Individual drilling, extraction, and transport costs are irrelevant.  As can be seen from the following chart, the price of retail gasoline fell significantly from 2011 to 2019.  This ecludes the much larger drops due to the 2009 and 2020 recessions.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epm0_pte_nus_dpg&f=m