Yikes...
"
Arctic Sea Ice Could Be Gone by 2035, According to Earth's Climate History"
https://www.sciencealert.com/the-arctic-could-be-free-of-sea-ice-next-decade-if-it-warms-the-same-as-last-time LIG = Last Interglacial period, ca. 125,000 years ago.
Their smoking gun is melt ponds. So Neven has been right all along!
"A new and improved model, based on the last warm period in Earth's history, now suggests shallow pools of rain and melt water could bring about the end of summer sea ice considerably sooner than we thought."
"Their model suggests the Arctic was very likely to have been ice-free during the summers of the last interglacial period, and this was enhanced by the presence of melt ponds - even more so than clouds or ocean currents, which have historically been given more weight in the warming Arctic."
"The ability of the [new] model to realistically simulate the very warm LIG Arctic climate provides independent support for predictions of ice-free conditions by summer 2035," the authors conclude.
"This should be of huge concern to Arctic communities and climate scientists."
(snarky edit - and about 7.49 billion other people too.)
From the journal articleGuarino, MV., Sime, L.C., Schröeder, D. et al.
Sea-ice-free Arctic during the Last Interglacial supports fast future loss. Nat. Clim. Chang. 10, 928–932 (2020). Not open access.
HadCM3 is the older version (CMIP3) of the UK Met global climate model.
HadGEM2-ES is the CMIP5 version (generation of models used for IPCC reports in 2013-2014).
HadGEM3 is the new version (one of the new CMIP6 generation being developed for next IPCC report).
(slightly edited to remove references and extraneous text, and formatted for clarity)
-- Partial abstract
"Here, we show that the latest version of the fully coupled UK Hadley Center climate model (HadGEM3) simulates a more accurate Arctic LIG climate, including elevated temperatures. Improved model physics, including a sophisticated sea-ice melt-pond scheme, result in a complete simulated loss of Arctic sea ice in summer during the LIG, which has yet to be simulated in past generations of models. This ice-free Arctic yields a compelling solution to the long-standing puzzle of what drove LIG Arctic warmth and supports a fast retreat of future Arctic summer sea ice."
from Conclusions
(comparing the UK Met model vs. larger suite of CMIP models for each generation):
"We compare standard scenarios where no additional efforts are made to constrain GHG emissions. The predicted year of disappearance of September sea ice under high-emissions
scenarios is
2086 for HadCM3 (CMIP3/5),
2048 for HadGEM2-ES (CMIP5)
and 2035 for HadGEM3 (CMIP6).
More broadly, multimodel CMIP3–6 mean predictions (and ranges) for a summer sea-ice-free Arctic are as follows:
CMIP3, 2062 (2040–2086);
CMIP5, 2048 (2020–2081);
and CMIP6, 2046 (2029–2066).
We note that the latest year of sea-ice disappearance for CMIP6 models is 2066 and that 50% of the models predict sea-ice-free conditions between ~2030 and 2040. From this we can see that HadGEM3 is not a particular outlier, in terms of its ECS or projected ice-free year."