When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?

[Stephan]

It is time for the monthly update of my extrapolation when the extent [Ausdehnung], volume [Volumen], thickness [Dicke] and area [Fläche] will reach zero. The extrapolation occured linearly and by a logarithmic function; the latter one almost constantly resulting in earlier times (valid all year round for volume and thickness, not for extent and area in the winter months). The April value now includes 2024.

Position of April 2024 towards the long-term trend lines
Extent, area and volume are above the individual linear trend lines, thickness is slightly above it.
April 2024's area average is slightly above the general average (1988-2024). Thickness is the fourth lowest in the satellite area.

Trend of the trends
The slopes of area, extent and volume have become - once again - flatter compared to last year (April 2023). The thickness slope hasn't changed.
The "BOE numbers" increased by 81 years (area), increased by 12 years (extent) and increased by 2 years (volume) compared to April 2023. The value for thickness increased by 1 year.

The order (earlier → later BOE) generally is volume < thickness < area < extent.

Please note that this is not a forecast but a trend!
See attached table.
y-AA = linear function value at t = 0. Stg = slope (negative values).

Click to enlarge it.

[Stephan]

It is time for the monthly update of my extrapolation when the extent [Ausdehnung], volume [Volumen], thickness [Dicke] and area [Fläche] will reach zero. The extrapolation occured linearly and by a logarithmic function; the latter one almost constantly resulting in earlier times (valid all year round for volume and thickness, not for extent and area in the winter months). The May value now includes 2024.

Position of May 2024 towards the long-term trend lines
Extent, area and thickness are above the individual linear trend lines, volume is way above it.
May 2024's area average is slightly below the general average (1988-2024).

Trend of the trends
The slopes of area, extent, thickness and volume have become - once again - flatter compared to last year (May 2023).
The "BOE numbers" increased by 48 years (area), by 18 years (extent), by 6 years (thickness) and by 2 years (volume) compared to May 2023.

The order (earlier → later BOE) generally is volume < thickness < area < extent.

Please note that this is not a forecast but a trend!
See attached table.
y-AA = linear function value at t = 0. Stg = slope (negative values).

Click to enlarge it.