Let’s assume that on June 1
st, 2022 we will have a new record of only 9.5 million km
2 of ASI extent and the weather is going to promote melting for the following 2 months, with a high pressure system all around the Arctic. Then on August, we are going to have some Great Arctic Cyclones, like the one we have on 2012.
Let’s assume two settings for June 1
st, 2022:
1. On the first one, we are going to have an average ice thickness of 2.6 meters, like the one we had on 1980, with 90% of the ice being 5+ years old (yes, I know it is not going to happen
).
2. On the second setting, we are going to have an average thickness of 1.5 meters, like the one that we had on 2017. Let’s assume that 80% of the ice is 1
st year old.
Well, we start with the same extent on both settings, but IMHO, at the end of August we could be having something close to a BOE in the second setting, but not on the first.
So, it is important the volume and also the quality of the ice that we have.