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When will the Arctic Extent dip below 1,000,000 Km^2

2018-2019
12 (17.9%)
2020-2025
21 (31.3%)
2026-2030
13 (19.4%)
2031-2040
15 (22.4%)
2041-2060
2 (3%)
2061-2080
0 (0%)
2081-2099
1 (1.5%)
2100-beyond
3 (4.5%)

Total Members Voted: 64

Voting closed: July 27, 2018, 07:46:32 AM

Author Topic: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?  (Read 106000 times)

crandles

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #300 on: May 06, 2019, 06:31:52 PM »
Alternatively, you could (more correctly?) argue it *can't* be above max volume.

It can't go above max volume in terms of water volume. In term of heat it can certainly go past max negative heat.
Fair point. The graph referred to is showing ice volume change.

"will it go down enough to offset the increase in "other heat inflows"?" is also a good point.

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Same area but thinner and the energy gathered by the ice is likely to go up not stay steady or go down. We have had a lot of this as thick MYI disappeared. (~2000-2012?) We have reached the end of this rapid thinning and now we are getting more of the area shrinkage with volume.

The graph showing losses for 2007-2018 already takes that mechanical feature of Arctic melt somewhat into account as it doesn't include the years when ice was significantly thicker. Even so, losses are greater now that the ice is thin than when the ice was thick.

I wasn't particularly referring to mechanical strength. Thinner ice converts to open water more easily and that has albedo consequences meaning much more of the insolation is captured. Then if ice is nearby, currents are likely to move the heat to the ice. But if the ice is a long way away then then likelihood of that heat being transferred to the ice is much reduced.


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For the Maximum volume a linear extrapolation works very well. For the minimum it doesn't. That's why I include two versions. One takes the satellite data set as the Arctic system, the other assumes there was a state change in 2007 and data before that is meaningless. Hopefully, we get to see how they change over time.

A less technical answer would be that  linear extrapolation is what it is. It assumes that exactly what happened in the past will happen in the future. It is naive because it is a fact of life that things change. But it is insightful because it is also a fact of life that things tend to repeat.

Straight line is sensible when you expect the same physics to be in play or has shown to work well and there is no reason to expect change ....

Archimid

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #301 on: May 06, 2019, 11:31:52 PM »
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I wasn't particularly referring to mechanical strength.


I should have said geometric feature instead of mechanical feature. The interactions between reduction of area and albedo are more geometric than mechanical. I was not talking about mechanical strength.

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Thinner ice converts to open water more easily and that has albedo consequences meaning much more of the insolation is captured. Then if ice is nearby, currents are likely to move the heat to the ice. But if the ice is a long way away then then likelihood of that heat being transferred to the ice is much reduced.

yes, but so far the effect has been masked by the sum of all other factors. Volume losses are higher even when there is less volume and less area to lose. Although the losses decreased in recent years they are still above the average of the losses before 2007.

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Straight line is sensible when you expect the same physics to be in play or has shown to work well and there is no reason to expect change ....

Yep. That's why I used 2 graphs. One with a straight line through the satellite set representing no change in the system and one that only uses a line through the latest years representing a changed system. Not only that, but the lines will be changing with each new entry, reflecting the change overtime.

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #302 on: May 09, 2019, 12:59:02 AM »
I find it interesting that three people voted for next century or later, while a dozen voted for a year or two.
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Klondike Kat

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #303 on: May 09, 2019, 03:54:09 AM »
I find it interesting that three people voted for next century or later, while a dozen voted for a year or two.

Just shows the wide breadth of opinions.  I am really more surprised that so many thought the Arctic would be ice-free by this year.

oren

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #304 on: May 09, 2019, 04:29:21 AM »
2018-2019 was a roll of the dice, with low chances (5% per year?). Some people chose to take the gamble, knowing it cost them nothing.
But I am personally much more surprised by those who truly believe that the answer to "When will the Arctic Extent dip below 1,000,000 Km^2" is 2100 and beyond, after the crazy drops we saw in summer 2012 and spring 2016. Even random year-over-year variability could get us there this century. And 80 years of Arctic amplification will surely make matters much worse.

Archimid

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #305 on: May 09, 2019, 04:31:41 AM »
It could have been ice free in 2016, but we got lucky. Not a lot of luck was needed.Unluckily, luck will decrease every year the planet keeps warming.
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miki

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #306 on: May 09, 2019, 05:04:15 AM »
Just shows the wide breadth of opinions.  I am really more surprised that so many thought the Arctic would be ice-free by this year.

You speak as this year is already done. 2019 is still in the game, IMO.

interstitial

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #307 on: May 09, 2019, 05:04:53 AM »
In the spring of 2012 I started following JAXA extent graph. Just from that one graph I figured BOE was going to be 2035 plus or minus five years for weather. Since then from this site and satellite images i have learned quite a bit. I still am just an amateur but until this year I thought my original guess was on target. I still think plus or minus five years for weather is appropriate for any guess further out than the current year. Now I am thinking 2030 plus or minus 5 years for BOE. What changed? Extent record is still 2012 but volume bottomed out in 2016 or 2017 depending on which graph you prefer. I think volume is a better indicator of when to expect BOE because extent can change dramatically with a shift in winds. To my eyes no area on worldview looks to have ice in much worse condition than this year except Barents sea in 2012.

Pmt111500

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #308 on: May 09, 2019, 06:24:56 AM »
Just shows the wide breadth of opinions.  I am really more surprised that so many thought the Arctic would be ice-free by this year.

You speak as this year is already done. 2019 is still in the game, IMO.
Maybe KK thought this meant the average of the whole year. Dipping to me is though crossing the point at any time.
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Sleepy

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #309 on: May 09, 2019, 07:02:38 AM »
The ASI is a zombie, all the heat needed is already up there. Halocline heat content has doubled over the last three decades in the gyre, I will be surprised if we don't see a dip below 1M before 2025.

Edit; adding some colourful support.



« Last Edit: May 09, 2019, 04:14:54 PM by Sleepy »
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Klondike Kat

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #310 on: May 09, 2019, 03:06:21 PM »
Just shows the wide breadth of opinions.  I am really more surprised that so many thought the Arctic would be ice-free by this year.

You speak as this year is already done. 2019 is still in the game, IMO.

Of course it is.  However, after a fast start to the melt season, the ice loss has slowed dramatically this year.  The 30-day melt is one of the lowest in the satellite data (only six years have shown less).    At this point in 2012, the ice melt was already taking off, and the aforementioned 2016 (which was lower on this date) also experienced large losses.  The multiple reports of greater thickness this year, is not indicative of an ice-free minimum this year.  Over the past dozen years, the trend in sea ice minima has been relatively flat.  It would take an extraordinary event (much more than observed in 2012) to cross the point at any time (No, miki I was not talking about average the whole year).  Until we start seeing lower minima, I think that the later decades are more likely. 

miki

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #311 on: May 09, 2019, 04:58:34 PM »
Just shows the wide breadth of opinions.  I am really more surprised that so many thought the Arctic would be ice-free by this year.

You speak as this year is already done. 2019 is still in the game, IMO.

Of course it is.  However, after a fast start to the melt season, the ice loss has slowed dramatically this year.  The 30-day melt is one of the lowest in the satellite data (only six years have shown less).    At this point in 2012, the ice melt was already taking off, and the aforementioned 2016 (which was lower on this date) also experienced large losses.  The multiple reports of greater thickness this year, is not indicative of an ice-free minimum this year.  Over the past dozen years, the trend in sea ice minima has been relatively flat.  It would take an extraordinary event (much more than observed in 2012) to cross the point at any time (No, miki I was not talking about average the whole year).  Until we start seeing lower minima, I think that the later decades are more likely.
I don't know.

My main concern is the rapid change of the whole Arctic ecosystem that is happening right now.
My guess for the dip, given all, is that it may likely happen in the early twenties. However, at this point, I do not discard any year. The fact that a season can be determined by the absence or presence of smoke coming from the burning Tundra in Siberia, or by a couple of storms coming in from the Pacific, makes me really wonder and worry. We may be here one of these coming years, still discussing about thickness, and then we turn our head and the ice is gone.

Stephan

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #312 on: May 10, 2019, 05:31:11 PM »
It is time for the monthly update of my extrapolation when the extent [Extent], volume [Volumen] and thickness [Dicke] will reach zero. The extrapolation occured linearly and by a logarithmic function; the latter one almost constantly resulting in earlier times. April value now includes 2019.
As volume and thickness in April 2019 lie above the long-term linear trend lines it is clear that the BOE for April will take place a few years later than calculated last April. The extent in April 2019 was the lowest ever measured and below the long-term trend line, this also means that with volume above the long term trend line the thickness is also bigger than last years. In fact - apart from 2015 - the thickness is the largest since 2009! Was this the cold winter and the mostly missing warm intrusions between Nov and March?
The low extent did not effect the "BOE" value for April in the extent part of the table.
All slopes decreased slightly, and April has, together with March, the smallest slope of all months ("Stg" in the attached table).

Please note that this is not a forecast but a trend!
See attached table.

Reallybigbunny

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #313 on: May 11, 2019, 05:39:05 AM »
In this highly interesting interview published on May 08, 2019, Wieslaw Maslowski talks with Guy McPherson about Arctic Ice. You might recall In 2012 Maslowski published a paper projecting the arctic would be ice free in 2016 + or - 3 years.


Pmt111500

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #314 on: May 11, 2019, 06:26:05 AM »
In this highly interesting interview published on May 08, 2019, Wieslaw Maslowski talks with Guy McPherson about Arctic Ice. You might recall In 2012 Maslowski published a paper projecting the arctic would be ice free in 2016 + or - 3 years.


If this doesn't happen, we might conclude Maslowski didn't have enough info of the future weather, though his projection was valid for exponential decrease of ice. We might try to add up the drops in Antarctic in the recent three years to the Arctic decrease and see how little there would be ice in Arctic if all the decrease had happened up there. SH was projected to be spared of the faster effects of CC due the higher ocean proportion and the protective function of ACC back then.
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sark

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #315 on: May 11, 2019, 06:43:26 AM »
not interesting
I am not a scientist

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #316 on: May 11, 2019, 06:59:12 AM »
There's something to learn from everyone.
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Sterks

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #317 on: May 11, 2019, 12:49:56 PM »
Yes, for some scientists to learn: avoid dissemination of catastrophic alarmist results if they don't have an extremely solid basis. 10-year linear trends? WTF?

Many deniers nowadays are using to discredit AGW claims from the 80's that were based on worst case scenarios and that did not come to happen.

I find alarmist scientists absolutely reckless. Fattening career and fame with +3sigma claims as baseline. As reckless as denier scientists paid with gold by the Cato Institute

Fortunately most of scientists take a more humble, more rigorous approach, something that is seen by some in forums like this as "coward" "staying in an ivory tower" "irresponsible" "slow science supports deniers" etc etc

oren

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #318 on: May 11, 2019, 01:45:11 PM »
Guy McPherson? I'll pass.

Sleepy

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #319 on: May 11, 2019, 02:21:41 PM »
Yes, for some scientists to learn>snip>
I commented the previous poster, just like you did I guess? It also stands in general.

Good or bad, kind or evil, silent or loud, there's still something to learn from everyone.
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Klondike Kat

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #320 on: May 11, 2019, 02:28:29 PM »
Yes, for some scientists to learn: avoid dissemination of catastrophic alarmist results if they don't have an extremely solid basis. 10-year linear trends? WTF?

Many deniers nowadays are using to discredit AGW claims from the 80's that were based on worst case scenarios and that did not come to happen.

I find alarmist scientists absolutely reckless. Fattening career and fame with +3sigma claims as baseline. As reckless as denier scientists paid with gold by the Cato Institute

Fortunately most of scientists take a more humble, more rigorous approach, something that is seen by some in forums like this as "coward" "staying in an ivory tower" "irresponsible" "slow science supports deniers" etc etc

I agree completely.  The reckless nature of these scientists have given ammo do those who wish to discredit the entire theory.  Many posters here seemed to hail these claims, as the number voting for an ice-free Arctic in the very near future exemplifies. 

Unfortunately, these claims are not restricted to the Arctic.  I remember after 2005, how some had claimed that this would be the “new normal” for hurricanes, only to be followed by a prolonged lull in activity.  Droughts and starvation appear to be another common meme, that has failed to materialize.  Although in the U.S., it has been replaced by flooding, as drought is at an all time low.  Yes, I tend to listen to the more humble scientists, and their thorough research, rather than those garnering headlines in the papers, which tend to amplify the further left and right positions.

Archimid

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #321 on: May 11, 2019, 02:30:07 PM »
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Yes, for some scientists to learn: avoid dissemination of catastrophic alarmist results if they don't have an extremely solid basis. 10-year linear trends? WTF?

Given what is known, and worse, what is not known about climate change, any climate scientist not being alarmist has succumbed to fear. Climate change is real. Climate change is worse than predictions. Abrupt climate change is very likely.

The lack of alarmism produces inaction.


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Many deniers nowadays are using to discredit AGW claims from the 80's that were based on worst case scenarios and that did not come to happen.

Deniers say NASA is lying about the temperature data set. Deniers take the painstaking and rigorous work of revising data and makes it look like fraud to anyone not versed in science (95% of people). There is nothing you can say that cowardly deniers won't twist for their own cowardly purposes.

What you should be worried about is giving the world the best risk assessment possible and the best science possible regardless of what others may think. That is very difficult, specially for people of science.

Slow climate change proponents are giving the world the wrong risk assessment.

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Fattening career and fame with +3sigma claims as baseline. As reckless as denier scientists paid with gold by the Cato Institute

What scientist is "fattening" their career? Scientist that make alarmists predictions are immediately shunned by peers and the media, just like you are doing here.  People don't want to hear that our world is ending unless we make significant changes to how we lead our lives. Scientists are people and they suffer the same defect* as people do. They don't want to talk about the end of our world.
 
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I find alarmist scientists absolutely reckless.

I find scientists that pretend "everything is ok, nothing to worry about until 2100" absolutely reckless. Although "scientists" may not be the best way to describe them. The whole "climate change will be slow"  theory has no basis in science. Zero. Nada. Climate change at the scale humans are producing is unprecedented. Any claim of safety is pure speculation. Bad speculation at that. Past mass extinction happened over thousands of years. What we are doing to Earth is happening over decades.

Your Conservatism is fake science.

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Fortunately most of scientists take a more humble, more rigorous approach, something that is seen by some in forums like this as "coward" "staying in an ivory tower" "irresponsible" "slow science supports deniers" etc etc

They are not being rigorous. They are supposing a stable climate as a given and ignoring evidence that is scary.


*Defect only in terms of security and correct risk assesment. In terms of everyday life, denying the fragility of our world and the impact we are having on it is a feature that keeps us sane. Climate scientist do not have the choice of double blind experimentation.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Archimid

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #322 on: May 11, 2019, 02:48:33 PM »

Thanks for the examples in cowardliness:

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remember after 2005, how some had claimed that this would be the “new normal” for hurricanes, only to be followed by a prolonged lull in activity.

The last three years of hurricanes were record losses, yet you cherry pick a small lull after 2005 to justify your point

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I  Droughts and starvation appear to be another common meme, that has failed to materialize.

This coward conveniently forgot about the years before 2015-2016. Drought was dangerously closing into many parts of the world as the world was undergoing a warm/dry spell. This warm/dry spell was replaced by a warm/wet spell we are currently on. Is warm/dry returning? I don't know, but I dare not to assume that it won't. And if it does, due to CO2, it will be even warmer with more flash droughts.

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Although in the U.S., it has been replaced by flooding, as drought is at an all time low.

I mean listen to yourself. You know the extreme drought was replaced by extreme flood, and you may know that the world is going to get warmer. Yet you ignore the danger happily and with pride.


Pure madness.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Klondike Kat

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #323 on: May 11, 2019, 03:54:31 PM »
Yes, after a prolonged lull, hurricane activity returned to near average levels, neither high (alarmist), nor low (denialist).

Droughts ebb and flow.  After every drought, some alarmist proclaims they are getting worse.  Historically, droughts have been much worse.  You are confusing cowardice with accuracy.  Even the U.S. drought was not as bad as previously 20th droughts.  Recent flooding is no worse either.

Obviously, you are encouraging alarmist and further food for the denialist machine.  What is so wrong with accurate portrayal of the climate?

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #324 on: May 11, 2019, 04:44:13 PM »
Slow climate change proponents are giving the world the wrong risk assessment.

While I am not particularly interested in the alarmist/denier debate, I have to agree with this in terms of risk assessment.

The past evidence is that there can be sudden climate change, therefore in terms of risk assessment, you must plan for abrupt changes.  The slow change proponents, unless they can demonstrate a very high level of skill in their predictions, are doing society a disservice.

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #325 on: May 11, 2019, 05:32:29 PM »
In this highly interesting interview published on May 08, 2019, Wieslaw Maslowski talks with Guy McPherson about Arctic Ice. You might recall In 2012 Maslowski published a paper projecting the arctic would be ice free in 2016 + or - 3 years.


If this doesn't happen, we might conclude Maslowski didn't have enough info of the future weather, though his projection was valid for exponential decrease of ice. We might try to add up the drops in Antarctic in the recent three years to the Arctic decrease and see how little there would be ice in Arctic if all the decrease had happened up there. SH was projected to be spared of the faster effects of CC due the higher ocean proportion and the protective function of ACC back then.

why defend or try to explain anything, he was wrong, i was wrong and many others were wrong with many of our projections (predictions) and so what, learning and keeping goin' that's it.


Klondike Kat

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #326 on: May 11, 2019, 06:29:32 PM »
The good scientist admits when he is wrong, acknowledges those who are right, learns from them, and moves on.  Scientists are often wrong.  There is nothing shameful in that, unless they try to claim they were actually right, only something else overwhelmed their rightness.

Archimid

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #327 on: May 11, 2019, 07:26:41 PM »
Yes, after a prolonged lull, hurricane activity returned to near average levels, neither high (alarmist), nor low (denialist).

False, See attachment. After 2005 cyclonic activity in the Atlantic remained at very high levels. Lately, rapid intensification is becoming a very bad trend.

What you are doing is yet another version of "no warming since 1998".

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Droughts ebb and flow.  After every drought, some alarmist proclaims they are getting worse.  Historically, droughts have been much worse.
 

Drought is tricky. A warmer world means a wetter world, but during dry days, higher temperatures hasten droughts.

I can certainly believe that droughts of the past were longer lasting and over wider areas. Climate changes much faster now so prolonged droughts may become rarer.  However, the extra warmth in the system makes drought conditions faster and in many more places. 

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Recent flooding is no worse either.

 Recent flooding across the world is historic in more ways than one. Pray it subsides and doesn't get worse.  Or instead of praying you could act and demand action to stop the warming of the world and the floods that come with it.

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Obviously, you are encouraging alarmist and further food for the denialist machine.  What is so wrong with accurate portrayal of the climate?

You are misrepresenting current climate conditions to fit your cowardly beliefs. I would call what you are doing lies, but apparently lies require ill intent. If you understood the danger we (yes, you included) are in you wouldn't be doing this.

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The good scientist admits when he is wrong, acknowledges those who are right, learns from them, and moves on.

Yep.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Wherestheice

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #328 on: May 11, 2019, 10:17:56 PM »
Lets get back on topic, If you want to create a thread for who's right Mann or McPherson please do so.
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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #329 on: May 11, 2019, 10:55:34 PM »
#Tim thanks for watching the video! It was really worth watching. Plays with your preconceptions of the participants.

oren

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #330 on: May 11, 2019, 11:07:15 PM »
I normally avoid watching videos of people talking, I prefer to better utilize my time reading, I find it to be much quicker and less biased. Stuff by Guy M I have read in the past led me to the conclusion that he is an unscientific alarmist, I actually prefer alarmists to lukewarmists but without science it's all just nonsense. But in any case, thanks for your summary of the video Tim. I did read it!

Human Habitat Index

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #331 on: May 12, 2019, 01:25:06 AM »
I normally avoid watching videos of people talking, I prefer to better utilize my time reading, I find it to be much quicker and less biased. Stuff by Guy M I have read in the past led me to the conclusion that he is an unscientific alarmist, I actually prefer alarmists to lukewarmists but without science it's all just nonsense. But in any case, thanks for your summary of the video Tim. I did read it!

Why don't you debunk Guy M scientifically - a lot of people would appreciate it.
There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance. That principle is contempt prior to investigation. - Herbert Spencer

Klondike Kat

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #332 on: May 12, 2019, 05:46:33 AM »
Tim,
No, I did not watch the video, nor was I commenting about it.  Hence, your post about my presumption is way off target.  Additionally, I never mentioned hurricane frequency.  I suspect you may be referring to the graph in the post by arachimid.  Somehow you mixed up my post with others, but chose to comment on my post, based on your presumptions.

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #333 on: May 12, 2019, 02:21:15 PM »
Any scientist who goes on the record that we are a decade away from human extinction will not be taken seriously by me. In fact, (adjusts tin foil cap) a purported scientist who goes on the record saying this does tremendous damage to real climate science, undermines the real threat that AGW presents to human civilization and causes me to suspect that he is actually being paid by the far right to do just this.

dnem

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #334 on: May 12, 2019, 03:39:45 PM »
Any scientist who goes on the record that we are a decade away from human extinction will not be taken seriously by me. In fact, (adjusts tin foil cap) a purported scientist who goes on the record saying this does tremendous damage to real climate science, undermines the real threat that AGW presents to human civilization and causes me to suspect that he is actually being paid by the far right to do just this.

McPherson strikes me more as a deeply troubled person than a paid double agent.

Sterks

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #335 on: May 13, 2019, 01:54:46 AM »
I normally avoid watching videos of people talking, I prefer to better utilize my time reading, I find it to be much quicker and less biased. Stuff by Guy M I have read in the past led me to the conclusion that he is an unscientific alarmist, I actually prefer alarmists to lukewarmists but without science it's all just nonsense. But in any case, thanks for your summary of the video Tim. I did read it!

Why don't you debunk Guy M scientifically - a lot of people would appreciate it.
I’ll do, I’ll give you the rebuttal in 2030

kiwichick16

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #336 on: May 13, 2019, 10:55:58 AM »
not sure if this is the right place but.......CO2  has hit 415 ppm at Mauna Loa for the first time ever

https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/

Klondike Kat

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #337 on: May 13, 2019, 03:01:48 PM »
I normally avoid watching videos of people talking, I prefer to better utilize my time reading, I find it to be much quicker and less biased. Stuff by Guy M I have read in the past led me to the conclusion that he is an unscientific alarmist, I actually prefer alarmists to lukewarmists but without science it's all just nonsense. But in any case, thanks for your summary of the video Tim. I did read it!

I finally took the time to watch the video.  It is longer than it needs to be.  In any case, Maslowski admitted that his projection was based on the trend from the late 1990s to 2007, which was the steepest decline in the satellite era, and which has not continued to date.  McPherson stated that the ice has leveled out after that time, and Maslowksi agreed.  Maslowski admitting that he made his projection based on too short a timeframe.  He downplayed his projection as a sound scientific tool.  He now says we can make Arctic predictions out to six months, and the Arctic will not be ice-free this year.  Maslowski stated that modeled results, with slightly tweaked parameters different experiments, show that ice thickness varies by a factor of three.  Consequently, he is hesitant to make any new ice-free projections.

Maven

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #338 on: May 13, 2019, 05:44:58 PM »
  Consequently, he is hesitant to make any new ice-free projections.

He's hesitant to make any specific ice-free projections, but he does think that it will be sooner than 2030.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #339 on: May 14, 2019, 01:28:35 AM »
Welcome, Maven, to the ASIF!
I hope you are as likeable as you are liking.  :)
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Human Habitat Index

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #340 on: May 14, 2019, 03:29:37 AM »
I normally avoid watching videos of people talking, I prefer to better utilize my time reading, I find it to be much quicker and less biased. Stuff by Guy M I have read in the past led me to the conclusion that he is an unscientific alarmist, I actually prefer alarmists to lukewarmists but without science it's all just nonsense. But in any case, thanks for your summary of the video Tim. I did read it!



Why don't you debunk Guy M scientifically - a lot of people would appreciate it.
I’ll do, I’ll give you the rebuttal in 2030

I'll be dead by 2030.
« Last Edit: May 14, 2019, 04:43:25 AM by Human Habitat Index »
There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance. That principle is contempt prior to investigation. - Herbert Spencer

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #341 on: May 14, 2019, 01:54:22 PM »
I normally avoid watching videos of people talking, I prefer to better utilize my time reading, I find it to be much quicker and less biased. Stuff by Guy M I have read in the past led me to the conclusion that he is an unscientific alarmist, I actually prefer alarmists to lukewarmists but without science it's all just nonsense. But in any case, thanks for your summary of the video Tim. I did read it!



Why don't you debunk Guy M scientifically - a lot of people would appreciate it.
I’ll do, I’ll give you the rebuttal in 2030

I'll be dead by 2030.

Why? Are you very elderly? Terminally ill? A uberdoomer?
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Klondike Kat

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #342 on: May 14, 2019, 02:04:30 PM »
  Consequently, he is hesitant to make any new ice-free projections.

He's hesitant to make any specific ice-free projections, but he does think that it will be sooner than 2030.

No, he never said that.  Only that it might.

Maven

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #343 on: May 14, 2019, 08:52:40 PM »
@Tor - Thanks!  We will see.



  Consequently, he is hesitant to make any new ice-free projections.

He's hesitant to make any specific ice-free projections, but he does think that it will be sooner than 2030.

No, he never said that.  Only that it might.

Well, if you start from right here in the video - https://youtu.be/yoy4U7MGIdo?t=1103

Here's some of the dialogue -

Wiselaw:
"There are some publications now, peer-reviewed publications which are using the global climate and Earth system models and, uh, hand picked some of them for their better representation of the Arctic ice area and they provided the estimate of ice disappearance roughly between 2030 and 2040."

Guy:
"And what do you think about that?"

Wiselaw:
"I would still think that it might happen sooner than that but I would hesitate to provide a specific date basically because the system is so complex and so nonlinear."


¯\_(ツ)_/¯

« Last Edit: May 14, 2019, 09:00:00 PM by Maven »

Klondike Kat

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #344 on: May 14, 2019, 10:00:02 PM »
Exactly!  He said it might happen.

Maven

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #345 on: May 14, 2019, 11:03:53 PM »
Exactly!  He said it might happen.

Wow, srsly?

At the risk of beating a dead horse -


might1
/mīt/
3.   used to express possibility or make a suggestion.
"this might be true"


I don't see why you contended with what I said initially.  He does think it might happen before 2030 which also means sooner than 2030.

IMO, leaving the word 'might' out doesn't really change the meaning of the sentence.  If 'might' was left out of what he said initially it would've been inferred anyway since he cannot absolutely know what will happen in the future.

Klondike Kat

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #346 on: May 14, 2019, 11:40:11 PM »
Exactly!  He said it might happen.

Wow, srsly?

At the risk of beating a dead horse -


might1
/mīt/
3.   used to express possibility or make a suggestion.
"this might be true"


I don't see why you contended with what I said initially.  He does think it might happen before 2030 which also means sooner than 2030.

IMO, leaving the word 'might' out doesn't really change the meaning of the sentence.  If 'might' was left out of what he said initially it would've been inferred anyway since he cannot absolutely know what will happen in the future.
[/
Initially, you said he thinks it will happen.  Will indicates certainty.  That is a big different from might, which [from your definition] indicates a possibility.  Inferring from the video that he thinks it will happen is quite the stretch.  Now, leave the horse alone.

FishOutofWater

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #347 on: May 15, 2019, 12:26:25 AM »
A lot of less than spectacular stuff in this thread...

Global hurricane activity and energy release is tied to Pacific El Niño cycles because the western Pacific has the largest area of warm tropical and subtropical water on earth. Strong Asian monsoons cause wind shear that dampens westpac hurricane activity in the summer months. Thus is is true that global measures of hurricane energy release such as ACE do not show significant increases.

However, Atlantic hurricane energy release went way up after the 1997 El Niño. It correlates with increasing heat content in the tropical and subtropical north Atlantic basin. Some folks have theorized that the Atlantic has now gone into a cool phase of a so called cycle, but the apparent cycle was caused by aerosol cooling of the north Atlantic in the 60s and 70s. The apparent cycle is probably an artifact of that cooling episode.

As to the "slow down" in melting over the past 30 days, it happened because of the early melt out of the Pacific seas. The recent heat has melted Baffin island snow and the Labrador sea is about to go, but the central Arctic basin takes time to show the effects of unseasonable warmth.

Klondike wrote (in green):
However, after a fast start to the melt season, the ice loss has slowed dramatically this year.  The 30-day melt is one of the lowest in the satellite data (only six years have shown less).
 
The weather developing right now is exceedingly unfavorable for sea ice and melting is going to speed up. However, I think there's too much volume to melt to get a blue ocean event this year. We could luck out again as we did in 2016 with a period of cool stormy weather in July. However, I think we will see a new record minimum because of what's going to happen over the next 2 weeks. Time will tell.

Human Habitat Index

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #348 on: May 15, 2019, 01:10:39 AM »
I normally avoid watching videos of people talking, I prefer to better utilize my time reading, I find it to be much quicker and less biased. Stuff by Guy M I have read in the past led me to the conclusion that he is an unscientific alarmist, I actually prefer alarmists to lukewarmists but without science it's all just nonsense. But in any case, thanks for your summary of the video Tim. I did read it!



Why don't you debunk Guy M scientifically - a lot of people would appreciate it.
I’ll do, I’ll give you the rebuttal in 2030

I'll be dead by 2030.

Why? Are you very elderly? Terminally ill? A uberdoomer?

https://guymcpherson.com/climate-chaos/climate-change-summary-and-update/
There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance. That principle is contempt prior to investigation. - Herbert Spencer

Wherestheice

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #349 on: May 15, 2019, 01:52:27 AM »
Saying the arctic will go ice free before 2030 is just as valid as saying it won’t
"When the ice goes..... F***