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When will the Arctic Extent dip below 1,000,000 Km^2

2018-2019
12 (17.9%)
2020-2025
21 (31.3%)
2026-2030
13 (19.4%)
2031-2040
15 (22.4%)
2041-2060
2 (3%)
2061-2080
0 (0%)
2081-2099
1 (1.5%)
2100-beyond
3 (4.5%)

Total Members Voted: 64

Voting closed: July 27, 2018, 07:46:32 AM

Author Topic: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?  (Read 116275 times)

Pragma

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #450 on: June 19, 2019, 07:28:33 PM »
Thanks, but I am only seeing one graph.

I look forward to the other three.

Cheers

gerontocrat

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #451 on: June 19, 2019, 09:00:05 PM »
Thanks, but I am only seeing one graph.

I look forward to the other three.

Cheers
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Pragma

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #452 on: June 19, 2019, 10:48:54 PM »
Thanks, but I am only seeing one graph.

I look forward to the other three.

Cheers
Look again...

Thanks very much for that. It gives more insight and my guess is that we are seeing the error bars of NSIDC fighting, or at least interacting, with the error bars of PIOMAS. It doesn't help that one is partially derived from the other. Further guessing, I think it's the limits of sensors and inherent noise swamping the signal as it gets to the limits of resolution.

In defence of PIOMAS, the model has refined by comparing previous surveys and I suspect that we are just not in Kansas anymore. I keep thinking of previous expeditions that, based on satellite data, expected solid ice, only to find huge areas of slush or porous and "rotten" ice.

Another area that I find suspect is how they keep track of multi-year ice. It's a daunting task, when thickness is not a reliable indicator of age, particularly along the north of the CAA and Greenland. Again, not a criticism, just a point to consider as it applies to PIOMAS.

As for the Baffin Bay chart, I spent quite a bit of time looking at old PIOMAS data and NSIDC data. I thought it might be due to Nares staying closed but I found nothing that would cause that anomaly in the 2000's. That decade was actually pretty predictable, compared to the 80's and 90"s and the fact that it's an average makes it all the more suspect. I think it must be a data set error or a quirk in the computation.

Unfortunately, I don't have a great eureka moment to share, I just know now to take PIOMAS with a large grain of salt, whatever that means.

oren

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #453 on: June 21, 2019, 10:34:24 AM »
Baffin Bay Note the 2000 Average line. That I do NOT understand
The problem is with the PIOMAS data itself. While the volume in the 2000s was modeled as higher than the 2010s, the minimum NSIDC area was almost the same in both decades. In addition, the volume in the 2000s barely reduces for weeks around the minimum, while area continues shrinking. It seems that either PIOMAS did not calibrate itself properly by the NSIDC area data in Baffin Bay as it is supposed to do, or that PIOMAS modeled extremely thick ice in the bay, perhaps due to export from Nares or the CAA, and that ice was the only thing left in September according to the model. I really doubt the second explanation, as PIOMAS lacks the resolution to achieve that kind of result.
But in any case, that's what you get when you divide two small numbers. I think the PIOMAS/NSIDC thickness calculation is more indicative during winter than during summer, and more indicative in the CAB than in seas that are seasonally ice free.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #454 on: June 21, 2019, 03:43:06 PM »
Quote
the volume in the 2000s barely reduces for weeks around the minimum, while area continues shrinking.
Just as CAB ice continues to thicken long after 'fringe' sea ice melts out (causing volume max to follow [and not follow closely] area/extent max), CAB ice will start thickening before the remaining pack stops melting at the edges.  The North Pole summer is shorter than the 80ºN summer - it starts later and ends sooner. 

Therefore, as 'fringe' volume (and total area) continued to decrease in September in the 2000s, North Pole volume started increasing. 

Today, I suspect (=deduce without looking at hard numbers = guess) the NP freezing season starts much later than it used to, while its melting season starts shortly before the time it used to.
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oren

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #455 on: June 21, 2019, 05:59:08 PM »
Good points Tor, but I was referring specifically to Baffin Bay volume, I should have been clearer.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #456 on: June 21, 2019, 06:07:10 PM »
Yes, Baffin Bay volume data is puzzling.
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gerontocrat

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #457 on: June 21, 2019, 09:09:07 PM »
Baffin Bay is not the only sea by any means to show wobbly data, sometimes especially for the 2000's average, and sometimes all years. The variation is greatest for small seas as summer comes and melt is fast.

These wobbles also show in the Greenland and Barents, which I guess is due to large changes in ice pushed in and out that perhaps are a melange of varying thickness.

Meanwhile - back to When will the Arctic go ice-free?
I attach 4 graphs about the "High Arctic" - the 7 central seas as defined by Tealight.
- Area,
- Volume,
- Thickness,
and
- Open water as a percentage of the total area of these seas.

My guess is that even a 2012 event won't do a BOE - yet. The baseline of area, volume and thickness needs to drop some more so such an event as 2012 will get to the magic marker.

On the other hand, the only way is down.
« Last Edit: June 21, 2019, 09:47:54 PM by gerontocrat »
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jdallen

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #458 on: June 21, 2019, 11:49:28 PM »
@gerontocrat

Concur, even with the current hideous torching going on, we're not going to see a BoE this year.

If it keeps up, we might beat 2012, but most likely, we'd end up somewhere between 2012 and 2016.
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Stephan

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #459 on: July 08, 2019, 08:05:04 PM »
It is time for the monthly update of my extrapolation when the extent [Extent], volume [Volumen] and thickness [Dicke] will reach zero. The extrapolation occured linearly and by a logarithmic function; the latter one almost constantly resulting in earlier times (valid for volume and thickness, not for extent). June value now includes 2019.
Extent value, volume and thickness for June 2019 lie at the long-term linear trend lines. As these anomalies are quite small, the "BOE numbers" haven't changed significantly compared to last year.

Please note that this is not a forecast but a trend!
See attached table.
« Last Edit: July 08, 2019, 08:18:55 PM by Stephan »

gerontocrat

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #460 on: July 09, 2019, 03:49:00 PM »
Thought I would have another look at thickness at minimum and maximum.
Graphs of volume, area & thickness at min and max attached.

Just says to me two things
- it will be volume loss wot does it,
- back in the early years average thickness at maximum was less than at minimum by about 1 metre. That's a lot. This gradually declined until reversed in 2010, i.e. average thickness at maximum more than at minimum (by about 0.1 to 0.2 metres). Pourquoi ? All to do with the amount and location of area and volume loss, methinks, but it made me blink.

Still say BOE sometime in the 2020's, but imagine (using the 1 million km2 rule)..
Scenario 1:-
About 900 km3 of volume, all squashed in together in the Greenland triangle.
Average thickness 1 metre spread over an extent of 1 million km2.
BOE !! No problem.

Scenario 1:-
About 500 km3 of volume, dispersed all over the place. Average thickness only 0.5 metres, spread over a measured extent of nearly 2 million km2.
is this  a BOE ??

05   REM Scientific discussion ensues...
10   "Oh yes it is,"
20   "On no it isn't",
30    GOTO 10
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Klondike Kat

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #461 on: July 09, 2019, 05:10:33 PM »
Thought I would have another look at thickness at minimum and maximum.
Graphs of volume, area & thickness at min and max attached.

Just says to me two things
- it will be volume loss wot does it,
- back in the early years average thickness at maximum was less than at minimum by about 1 metre. That's a lot. This gradually declined until reversed in 2010, i.e. average thickness at maximum more than at minimum (by about 0.1 to 0.2 metres). Pourquoi ? All to do with the amount and location of area and volume loss, methinks, but it made me blink.

Still say BOE sometime in the 2020's, but imagine (using the 1 million km2 rule)..


They will all go simultaneously - one cannot occur without the other.  That said, the linear trend line does not appear to mimic the actual data - especially over the last decade.  Hence, I do not foresee a BOE event before 2030.

vox_mundi

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #462 on: July 09, 2019, 05:39:17 PM »
Paris Agreement Does Not Rule Out Ice-Free Arctic
https://phys.org/news/2019-07-paris-agreement-ice-free-arctic.html

Research published in this week's issue of Nature Communications reveals a considerable chance for an ice-free Arctic Ocean at global warming limits stipulated in the Paris Agreement. Scientists from South Korea, Australia and the U.S. used results from climate models and a new statistical approach to calculate the likelihood for Arctic sea ice to disappear at different warming levels.

Using 31 different climate models, which exhibit considerable inter-dependence, the authors find that there is at least a 6% probability that summer sea ice in the Arctic Ocean will disappear at 1.5 °C warming above preindustrial levels—a lower limit recommended by the Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. For a 2°C warming, the probability for losing the ice rises to at least 28%. Most likely we will see a sea ice-free summer Arctic Ocean for the first time at 2 to 2.5°C warming.

Open Access: R. Olson, S.-I. An, Y. Fan, W. Chang, J. P. Evans. A novel method to test non-exclusive hypotheses applied to Arctic ice projections from dependent models. Nature Communications, 2019
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Sebastian Jones

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #463 on: July 10, 2019, 07:15:24 AM »
Paris Agreement Does Not Rule Out Ice-Free Arctic
https://phys.org/news/2019-07-paris-agreement-ice-free-arctic.html

Research published in this week's issue of Nature Communications reveals a considerable chance for an ice-free Arctic Ocean at global warming limits stipulated in the Paris Agreement. Scientists from South Korea, Australia and the U.S. used results from climate models and a new statistical approach to calculate the likelihood for Arctic sea ice to disappear at different warming levels.

Using 31 different climate models, which exhibit considerable inter-dependence, the authors find that there is at least a 6% probability that summer sea ice in the Arctic Ocean will disappear at 1.5 °C warming above preindustrial levels—a lower limit recommended by the Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. For a 2°C warming, the probability for losing the ice rises to at least 28%. Most likely we will see a sea ice-free summer Arctic Ocean for the first time at 2 to 2.5°C warming.

Open Access: R. Olson, S.-I. An, Y. Fan, W. Chang, J. P. Evans. A novel method to test non-exclusive hypotheses applied to Arctic ice projections from dependent models. Nature Communications, 2019

I don't think many regulars on this forum think there is much chance for a BOE to wait until global temps have risen over 2C. Personally, I expect it to happen before we reach 1.5C.

RikW

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #464 on: July 10, 2019, 10:04:40 AM »
Well, it all depends on how fast temperature keeps rising;

What I learnt from reading this forum and other online sources last years blue arctic ocean is almost inevitable. Even if we stop all CO2 emissions today

Klondike Kat

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #465 on: July 10, 2019, 03:32:48 PM »
I don't think many regulars on this forum think there is much chance for a BOE to wait until global temps have risen over 2C. Personally, I expect it to happen before we reach 1.5C.

That is because many of the regulars are pessimists.  Just look at the polls.  In the 2017 poll, half of the respondents predicted a new JAXA minimum.  That was down from the 2016 poll, in which 60% predicted a new minimum.  Last year was rather subdued, with only 16% predicting a new minimum. 

be cause

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #466 on: July 10, 2019, 04:03:52 PM »
many of the regulars are realists . Also .. as a wake-up call a BOE would be better sooner than later . I still consider this year a candidate . However I prefer area as the measure .. extent could be nearly all water . b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

crandles

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #467 on: July 10, 2019, 04:24:40 PM »
I can get that up to 84.5% for 2017:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2031.0.html

When will be break PIOMAS 2012 September record?
2017 (In General) 60 (51.7%)
2018-2019 7 (6%)
2020-2023 5 (4.3%)
2022-2025 2 (1.7%)
2024-2027  70 (0%)
2026-2029 0 (0%)
2028-2030 0 (0%)
After 2030 1 (0.9%)
Never 3 (2.6%)
2017 by month: July 1 (0.9%)
2017 by month: August 16 (13.8%)
2017 by month: September 21 (18.1%)

So just 15.5% thought it wouldn't be 2017, but to be fair the volume was at a clear record low for the time of year and had been for some time when the poll closed 30 May 2017.

Agree there is some self selection bias: alarmists more likely to be active on this forum, therefore no surprise if the poll results tend towards alarmism. OTOH with 2017 data available at the time, perhaps it is not too surprising if high proportion of people were predicting new minimums to occur.

>Last year was rather subdued
Perhaps people are learning from their errors? Maybe I posted my infamous 4 parameter gompertz fit graphs frequently enough.  ;)

Klondike Kat

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #468 on: July 10, 2019, 05:10:33 PM »
I can get that up to 84.5% for 2017:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2031.0.html

When will be break PIOMAS 2012 September record?
2017 (In General) 60 (51.7%)
2018-2019 7 (6%)
2020-2023 5 (4.3%)
2022-2025 2 (1.7%)
2024-2027  70 (0%)
2026-2029 0 (0%)
2028-2030 0 (0%)
After 2030 1 (0.9%)
Never 3 (2.6%)
2017 by month: July 1 (0.9%)
2017 by month: August 16 (13.8%)
2017 by month: September 21 (18.1%)

So just 15.5% thought it wouldn't be 2017, but to be fair the volume was at a clear record low for the time of year and had been for some time when the poll closed 30 May 2017.

Agree there is some self selection bias: alarmists more likely to be active on this forum, therefore no surprise if the poll results tend towards alarmism. OTOH with 2017 data available at the time, perhaps it is not too surprising if high proportion of people were predicting new minimums to occur.

>Last year was rather subdued
Perhaps people are learning from their errors? Maybe I posted my infamous 4 parameter gompertz fit graphs frequently enough.  ;)

For the record, I particularly like for gompertz plot, as it poses a much better match than a simple linear fit.

El Cid

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #469 on: July 10, 2019, 05:14:19 PM »
many of the regulars are realists . Also .. as a wake-up call a BOE would be better sooner than later .

Sorry bro, no such luck. Noone will give a s**t about BOE even when it happens especially that by definition (the 1 M sq km threshold) it will still include some remnants of the arctic ice. There's going to be no wake up call, no more than 2007 or 2012. Extreme, previously unimaginable (and unforeseen by models) things happened in 07 and 12 and yet no one gave a s**t either.

A BOE could happen even this year but it might not come until the 30s. BOE is not the wake up call. Global crop-failures or millions (in developed countries) losing their homes would be. I hope (and think) that these will not happen in my lifetime. If they do, then MAYBE, just maybe, humanity will try to change

be cause

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #470 on: July 10, 2019, 05:20:24 PM »
I reckon a lot of children will give a shit .. even open seas at the pole will stir the next generation .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #471 on: July 10, 2019, 07:15:23 PM »
many of the regulars are realists . Also .. as a wake-up call a BOE would be better sooner than later .

Sorry bro, no such luck. Noone will give a s**t about BOE even when it happens especially that by definition (the 1 M sq km threshold) it will still include some remnants of the arctic ice. There's going to be no wake up call, no more than 2007 or 2012. Extreme, previously unimaginable (and unforeseen by models) things happened in 07 and 12 and yet no one gave a s**t either.

A BOE could happen even this year but it might not come until the 30s. BOE is not the wake up call. Global crop-failures or millions (in developed countries) losing their homes would be. I hope (and think) that these will not happen in my lifetime. If they do, then MAYBE, just maybe, humanity will try to change

sorry but i disagree here, i dunno where you live but in europe the movements for sustainability is getting stronger by the month and i'm totally convinced that an extreme event would again increase the percentage of awareness and once the critical mass is reached we could even end in an environmental dictatorship. i mean kind of widely spread prohibition that will not solve the problem because it's too late but destroy what still working.

i do not expect any followership on such thoughts. only thing i say is that: study how communism evolved and played out and who knows whether it could repeat in the green spectrum after the red spectrum didn't succeed. too complicated and OT to take it further here.

D-Penguin

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #472 on: July 10, 2019, 11:45:49 PM »
many of the regulars are realists . Also .. as a wake-up call a BOE would be better sooner than later .

Sorry bro, no such luck. Noone will give a s**t about BOE even when it happens especially that by definition (the 1 M sq km threshold) it will still include some remnants of the arctic ice. There's going to be no wake up call, no more than 2007 or 2012. Extreme, previously unimaginable (and unforeseen by models) things happened in 07 and 12 and yet no one gave a s**t either.

A BOE could happen even this year but it might not come until the 30s. BOE is not the wake up call. Global crop-failures or millions (in developed countries) losing their homes would be. I hope (and think) that these will not happen in my lifetime. If they do, then MAYBE, just maybe, humanity will try to change

sorry but i disagree here, i dunno where you live but in europe the movements for sustainability is getting stronger by the month and i'm totally convinced that an extreme event would again increase the percentage of awareness and once the critical mass is reached we could even end in an environmental dictatorship. i mean kind of widely spread prohibition that will not solve the problem because it's too late but destroy what still working.

i do not expect any followership on such thoughts. only thing i say is that: study how communism evolved and played out and who knows whether it could repeat in the green spectrum after the red spectrum didn't succeed. too complicated and OT to take it further here.

I agree with Magnamentis. A BOE would DEFINITELY motivate and give greater momentum to the younger generation. The present teenage generation are more knowledgeable about Critical Climate Change (CCC) than most of their parents and grandparents. Many of these young people will be voting at the next General Election in the UK and other European elections and the weight of their votes will determine the next government. To get the 'young vote' it will be necessary to present  the most credible policies to tackle CCC.

Also, note the success of the Green Party in the recent EU elections, essentially a 'young persons' political movement.

Yes, a BOE and sooner the better to create a critical mass of public opinion with the young in the vanguard of public reaction and demands for action.

El Cid

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #473 on: July 11, 2019, 12:10:32 AM »
Yes, you and magnamentis may be right but I think that it is just wishful thinking on your part. What happened to the hippie generation? The same thing will happen to these young green voters...unfortunately for all of us. But we will most likely see which of us is right soon enough

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #474 on: July 11, 2019, 12:34:51 AM »
A Disney film about a polar bear cub that lost its mother while the ice was melting and was adopted by a beluga whale will have more impact than a BOE.

Unless there are serious immediate consequences in the lives of several millions of people, the BOE will be just an extra degree in the boiling pan with frog at the bottom.

The BOE is a psychological milestone mostly for people that follow the arctic. Even for people that are concerned with climate change, it's just another piece of terrible news, that are becoming more and more common.

Archimid

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #475 on: July 11, 2019, 01:02:18 AM »
After a BOE there won't be debates about climate change, it will be quite clear. What happens in the Arctic does not stay in the Arctic.

After a BOE, anthropogenic climate change won't even matter anymore. Human emissions will drop significantly  the year after the first BOE. Plastic pollution will pretty much stop a few years after. About the only impact humans will have on the planet at that point will be that of war, and it won't be for long, we'll be fighting with stones and sticks after a while.
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magnamentis

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #476 on: July 11, 2019, 01:10:27 AM »
A Disney film about a polar bear cub that lost its mother while the ice was melting and was adopted by a beluga whale will have more impact than a BOE.

Unless there are serious immediate consequences in the lives of several millions of people, the BOE will be just an extra degree in the boiling pan with frog at the bottom.

The BOE is a psychological milestone mostly for people that follow the arctic. Even for people that are concerned with climate change, it's just another piece of terrible news, that are becoming more and more common.

if you follow this forum thoroughly and read what others have to say you will find that there is a certain probability that the arctic ocean will see up water temps between 5-15C depending and if that probability becomes true, you can assume that exactly that will happen, such a shift in temperatures over such a vast area, and the difference will not be restricted to summers, only the highs, cannot go unnoticed by the system (climate) as w whole and i'd guess that we shall see an abrupt SLR by something between 30-100cm, extreme storms and other effects that, jointly with the news what happened up north (don't forget down south) will cause some panic sales, panic moves, panic all over the sea-level-dwellers.

but then i'm just asking myself whether it's worth to post this, now that all was said in one or another way and some will never see it coming until it's too late.

seen from that perspective, people who can't or don't want to see the huge impact of such game-changers are exactly those responsible that it will happen.
« Last Edit: July 11, 2019, 03:21:27 AM by magnamentis »

dnem

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #477 on: July 11, 2019, 02:14:40 AM »
After a BOE there won't be debates about climate change, it will be quite clear. What happens in the Arctic does not stay in the Arctic.

After a BOE, anthropogenic climate change won't even matter anymore. Human emissions will drop significantly  the year after the first BOE. Plastic pollution will pretty much stop a few years after. About the only impact humans will have on the planet at that point will be that of war, and it won't be for long, we'll be fighting with stones and sticks after a while.

This is hyperbole.  If extent slips below 1,000,000 km2 for a day and then heads into a relatively normal (for these abnormal times) freeze season, it will not result in chaos and collapse.  It will be a just another ratchet step down that road.  When we have a few summers in a row with no ice, then you might be right.

Klondike Kat

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #478 on: July 11, 2019, 03:07:28 AM »
After a BOE there won't be debates about climate change, it will be quite clear. What happens in the Arctic does not stay in the Arctic.

After a BOE, anthropogenic climate change won't even matter anymore. Human emissions will drop significantly  the year after the first BOE. Plastic pollution will pretty much stop a few years after. About the only impact humans will have on the planet at that point will be that of war, and it won't be for long, we'll be fighting with stones and sticks after a while.

This is hyperbole.  If extent slips below 1,000,000 km2 for a day and then heads into a relatively normal (for these abnormal times) freeze season, it will not result in chaos and collapse.  It will be a just another ratchet step down that road.  When we have a few summers in a row with no ice, then you might be right.

Agreed.  There is nothing magical about a BOE.  Just like their is nothing magical about 1.5 or 2.0 degrees temperature rise.

Archimid

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #479 on: July 11, 2019, 11:25:49 AM »
The abrupt changes in planetary climate that a BOE will bring are not magic. They are simple physics. The Earth has had a planetary refrigerator for likely millions of years. After a BOE that refrigerator fails and the NH will know true climate change. There won't be any denying because we'll be busy surviving.

I'm not arguing against logic here. It is frustrating to see how intelligent people who are aware of the role of arctic sea ice on atmospheric and oceanic patterns can't see the destruction that will ensue as the arctic disappears. The destruction has already started and the Arctic has barely begun to change.

But I may be wrong, so let's get to the science. Find me a paper that describes what happens after the first BOE, that doesn't ignore the ASI teleconections to the rest of the world and predicts a BOE much sooner than 2070.

Good luck with it. 
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

pietkuip

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #480 on: July 11, 2019, 12:20:26 PM »
Find me a paper that describes what happens after the first BOE...
That seems to be very uncertain. The IPCC states "with high confidence" that there will be no hysteresis (but that is because they excluded feedback from all of their models) and that the Arctic will just refreeze like normal. I doubt that, because there should be more mixing caused by stronger wave action due to the longer wind fetch.

As to linkages and the effects on temperate weather patterns, effects are uncertain. Some results indicate that weather will remain variable. Jennifer Francis etc do not agree.

What seems obvious is that there will be a lot more evaporation from the open ocean in the autumn. But the relative increase of humidity and latent heat in the atmosphere won't be large, not in Western Europe.

I fear that things might get bad but we will see soon enough. Sooner than reliable calculations and predictions.

Archimid

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #481 on: July 11, 2019, 12:43:46 PM »
Quote
The IPCC states "with high confidence" that there will be no hysteresis (because they excluded feedback from all of their models) and that the Arctic will just refreeze like normal.

I'm convinced that after the first BOE the Arctic will refreeze like normal, if by normal you mean later than ever and by the end of the freezing season there is a record low amount of first year ice. No instant hysteresis. Hysteresis happens in the years after the BOE as consecutive BOE's happen at earlier dates.

Quote
As to linkages and the effects on temperate weather patterns, effects are uncertain. Some results indicate that weather will remain variable. Jennifer Francis etc do not agree.

IMHO the effects are visible and evident but scientist haven't figured out how to correctly account for it. As the Arctic shrinks and the climate extremes get worse data will come in and scientist will get a better quantitative understanding of the new climate regime. Hopefully, not too late.

Quote
What seems obvious is that there will be a lot more evaporation from the open ocean in the autumn. But the relative increase of humidity and latent heat in the atmosphere won't be large, not in Western Europe.


To me the biggie is going to be the change in atmospheric pressure as arctic temperatures depart normal Pleistocene temperatures in a geological instant ( a few decades).

In the past, when fast warming like this happened it was stopped by glaciers melting quick and cooling the ocean. Where there used to be glaciers during Pleistocene warming there is now permafrost. I don't know if Greenland alone is capable of that.
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El Cid

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #482 on: July 11, 2019, 02:29:49 PM »
The abrupt changes in planetary climate that a BOE will bring are not magic. They are simple physics. The Earth has had a planetary refrigerator for likely millions of years.


That is likely not true. Many studies had been posted on other threads about historical BOE events. We probably had no or little Arctice ice 120 000 yrs ago and we may not have had ice  8000 yrs ago. Look up the studies, as I said they had been quoted on other threads before - and not just once.

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #483 on: July 11, 2019, 03:01:28 PM »
And in all those threads I’ve made clear the existence of  massive ice sheets that offset the warming. Ice sheets that do not exist today except for Greenland. I also made clear that the time frame of these events of the past happen over centuries and millennia, not decades. 

It’s all right there in the same literature you now allude to. You just don’t want to see it.
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pietkuip

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #484 on: July 11, 2019, 03:18:55 PM »
Quote
The IPCC states "with high confidence" that there will be no hysteresis (because they excluded feedback from all of their models) and that the Arctic will just refreeze like normal.

I'm convinced that after the first BOE the Arctic will refreeze like normal, if by normal you mean later than ever and by the end of the freezing season there is a record low amount of first year ice. No instant hysteresis. Hysteresis happens in the years after the BOE as consecutive BOE's happen at earlier dates.

Yes, it would refreeze later than usual, and the ice would be thinner next year with very little multi-year ice. Which would give a much higher probability of another BOE. Probably earlier in the melting season. But this is what the IPCC wrote:

Quote from: IPCC  Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C Executive summary B.4.1
With 1.5°C of global warming, one sea ice-free Arctic summer is projected per century.

This likelihood is increased to at least one per decade with 2°C global warming.

Effects of a temperature overshoot are reversible for Arctic sea ice cover on decadal time scales (high confidence).

That confidence is just silly. But it is very difficult to predict with any kind of certainty what the effects would be. I expect consequences all over the Northern Hemisphere. And any fast change is very likely to be bad.

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #485 on: July 11, 2019, 03:41:20 PM »
Yeah, I don't expect massive climate change (except those we have now) when we hit BOE, because that will likely happen at the end of august/beginning of september thus fast refreeze. But unless there are some nice feedback mechanisms after going blue, I'd guess BOE will happen in year BOE+1 a couple of days/weeks earlier, so much more heating of the arctic ocean, refreeze will hapen weeks/months later and in BOE+2 I'd imagine having BOE for mid july-november. And that will be too long without our arctic refrigerator and I won't be suprised if the following happens

BOE-year: "aaaah, blue ocean" "oh, nothing happens, it just refreezes"
BOE-year+1: "oh, again blue ocean" and we will have some weird weather, but those are just 'incidents'
BOE-year+2: "that's weird, 3rd BOE in a row and too early" and weather patterns become unpredictable in northern hemisphere with lots of extreme weather and reality finally sinks in

El Cid

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #486 on: July 11, 2019, 03:46:49 PM »
And in all those threads I’ve made clear the existence of  massive ice sheets that offset the warming. Ice sheets that do not exist today except for Greenland. I also made clear that the time frame of these events of the past happen over centuries and millennia, not decades. 

It’s all right there in the same literature you now allude to. You just don’t want to see it.

Yes, you made clear that YOU THINK that BOE will bring disaster and pretty much and end of all life. You never supported your claims with any literature and disregarded any literature I cited (many times!) even from pretty reliable journals, eg. Nature. These show that the changes in the past happened in decades not centuries or millenia and the changes were huge and widespread (Greenland temp change at the end of the last ice age of 8-15 C in a mere decades or years!). All you do is extreme, baseless scaremongering, never supported by any research - and completely disregarding any research cited to you.

crandles

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #487 on: July 11, 2019, 04:22:47 PM »

Yes, it would refreeze later than usual, and the ice would be thinner next year with very little multi-year ice. Which would give a much higher probability of another BOE. Probably earlier in the melting season.

The research like Tietsche et al and Schroeder and Connolley
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2007GL030253

suggests that the lack of ice from BOE means little snow can be supported by ice during time when there are reasonable amounts of snow. The ice gets thicker than usual (not thinner) during the freeze season due to lack of insulating snow. After two years it gets back to pretty near normal. This research is covering situation where unusual weather causes a BOE when the climate is not really ready for a BOE yet.

If the climate is ready for a BOE then I would still suggest little snow supported so thicker ice than usual but perhaps this still melts out because more ice but little snow means reduced albedo so perhaps the extra ice still melts out in this situation. However, alternating years of BOE and not is perhaps a possibility.

I think we are a long way from the climate being ready to support BOE occurring frequently.

I think arguing that one BOE causes next year to have longer BOE is like arguing that a record low ice volume means the next year will definitely beat that record. It might seem logical but it just isn't true for record low ice volume and while predicting future is more difficult, it probably isn't true for a BOE either.

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #488 on: July 11, 2019, 04:31:51 PM »
One thing we do know, and that is the potential for increased energy capture by ice-free Arctic Seas and progress towards that, courtesy of Tealight. (https://cryospherecomputing.tk/NRTawp)

And it is early melt that contributes the most to achieving that potential. Does that suggest that while a BOE is a natural consequence of AGW in the Arctic, climatic impacts may depend more on ever-increasing energy capture in the years before - like now.
_______________________________________________________________
ps: What will the IPCC 2021 report in 20121 have to say about it (- as we watch the horse that has already bolted several kilometers down the road and the stable door is still open) ?
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Archimid

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #489 on: July 11, 2019, 04:41:27 PM »
Quote
Yes, you made clear that YOU THINK that BOE will bring disaster and pretty much and end of all life.

 A BOE will most certainly not cause the end of all life on earth, not by a long shot. Only the end of modern civilization and, overtime, a huge chunk of the human population. Most of nature will be just fine after a few hundred years of climate stability. A scientist 50k years from now will

Quote
You never supported your claims with any literature and disregarded any literature I cited (many times!) even from pretty reliable journals,

Quite the opposite, I have used your links to prove my point. Abrupt climate change happens, and the type of abrupt climate change we are inducing will end our civilization, just like minor changes in Holocene climate ended local human civilizations.

Quote
These show that the changes in the past happened in decades not centuries or millenia and the changes were huge and widespread (Greenland temp change at the end of the last ice age of 8-15 C in a mere decades or years!).

Indeed. I’m not challenging that fact. It is just that you are overlooking the changes that took place at the time. The climate changed, the flora changed, the water cycle changed. If humans of the time had settled at the time, their settlements would have failed.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #490 on: July 11, 2019, 04:45:24 PM »
What happened to the hippie generation?

o/

Shared Humanity

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #491 on: July 11, 2019, 05:45:53 PM »
The abrupt changes in planetary climate that a BOE will bring are not magic. They are simple physics. The Earth has had a planetary refrigerator for likely millions of years. After a BOE that refrigerator fails and the NH will know true climate change. There won't be any denying because we'll be busy surviving.

I'm not arguing against logic here. It is frustrating to see how intelligent people who are aware of the role of arctic sea ice on atmospheric and oceanic patterns can't see the destruction that will ensue as the arctic disappears. The destruction has already started and the Arctic has barely begun to change.

But I may be wrong, so let's get to the science. Find me a paper that describes what happens after the first BOE, that doesn't ignore the ASI teleconections to the rest of the world and predicts a BOE much sooner than 2070.

Good luck with it.

The impacts of a BOE is simply a continuum of what we are already seeing. The very low SIE and SIA we are reaching now are already impacting the weather across the NH. While we define a BOE as less than 1 million square kilometers, NH weather will see no real diffirence between 1.4 and 0.8 million square kilometers.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #492 on: July 11, 2019, 05:54:20 PM »
The impacts of a BOE is simply a continuum of what we are already seeing

So much this!

The weather is already weird. I think flooding, droughts, bad harvests, water problems, etc will impact people massively before we even see the real effects of a first BOE.

Klondike Kat

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #493 on: July 11, 2019, 06:01:09 PM »
The abrupt changes in planetary climate that a BOE will bring are not magic. They are simple physics. The Earth has had a planetary refrigerator for likely millions of years. After a BOE that refrigerator fails and the NH will know true climate change. There won't be any denying because we'll be busy surviving.

I'm not arguing against logic here. It is frustrating to see how intelligent people who are aware of the role of arctic sea ice on atmospheric and oceanic patterns can't see the destruction that will ensue as the arctic disappears. The destruction has already started and the Arctic has barely begun to change.

But I may be wrong, so let's get to the science. Find me a paper that describes what happens after the first BOE, that doesn't ignore the ASI teleconections to the rest of the world and predicts a BOE much sooner than 2070.

Good luck with it.

The impacts of a BOE is simply a continuum of what we are already seeing. The very low SIE and SIA we are reaching now are already impacting the weather across the NH. While we define a BOE as less than 1 million square kilometers, NH weather will see no real diffirence between 1.4 and 0.8 million square kilometers.

Agreed.  It will impact the weather, but as far as a collapse of civilization as we know it, hardly.  Mankind (and nature) is more resilient than many people think.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #494 on: July 11, 2019, 06:17:43 PM »
Mankind (and nature) is more resilient than many people think.

Always the optimist, eh?  ;)

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gerontocrat

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #495 on: July 11, 2019, 06:30:37 PM »
The abrupt changes in planetary climate that a BOE will bring are not magic. They are simple physics. The Earth has had a planetary refrigerator for likely millions of years. After a BOE that refrigerator fails and the NH will know true climate change. There won't be any denying because we'll be busy surviving.

I'm not arguing against logic here. It is frustrating to see how intelligent people who are aware of the role of arctic sea ice on atmospheric and oceanic patterns can't see the destruction that will ensue as the arctic disappears. The destruction has already started and the Arctic has barely begun to change.

But I may be wrong, so let's get to the science. Find me a paper that describes what happens after the first BOE, that doesn't ignore the ASI teleconections to the rest of the world and predicts a BOE much sooner than 2070.

Good luck with it.

The impacts of a BOE is simply a continuum of what we are already seeing. The very low SIE and SIA we are reaching now are already impacting the weather across the NH. While we define a BOE as less than 1 million square kilometers, NH weather will see no real diffirence between 1.4 and 0.8 million square kilometers.

Agreed.  It will impact the weather, but as far as a collapse of civilization as we know it, hardly.  Mankind (and nature) is more resilient than many people think.
Look at what is happening in Central America, Mexico and the US / Mexico border.
A situation born of Government mismanagement, compounded by AGW.
Now multiply the number of people on the move to the North by 2, 5, 10 ?
You think US border guards can cope? Not going so well at the moment, is it.

How many refugees will drown this summer in the Mediterranean?
Now multiply the number of people on the move by 2, 5, 10 ?

Of course, many humans will survive, but it won't be pretty.
Call that civilisation?
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nanning

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #496 on: July 11, 2019, 06:38:04 PM »
Re:BOE
If the arctic ocean and peripheral seas warm up, the NH weathersystems will change a lot I think.

@gerontocrat
I totally agree with that view.
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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #497 on: July 11, 2019, 06:39:25 PM »
Mankind (and nature) is more resilient than many people think.

I agree. Even if our planet becomes uninhabited, we can create shelters in space.

nanning

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #498 on: July 11, 2019, 06:40:21 PM »
Yes, you and magnamentis may be right but I think that it is just wishful thinking on your part. What happened to the hippie generation? The same thing will happen to these young green voters...unfortunately for all of us. But we will most likely see which of us is right soon enough

The hippies didn't have the scientific community and UN behind them.
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El Cid

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #499 on: July 11, 2019, 06:52:49 PM »
I know it is OT (sry) but I attach this chart for gerontocrat regarding drowning in the Mediterranean and the number of migrants.

Truth is migrants arrive mostly (exception: Syrian war refugees) looking for a job and once they are not welcome anymore, they get the message and don't come anymore