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When will the Arctic Extent dip below 1,000,000 Km^2

2018-2019
12 (17.9%)
2020-2025
21 (31.3%)
2026-2030
13 (19.4%)
2031-2040
15 (22.4%)
2041-2060
2 (3%)
2061-2080
0 (0%)
2081-2099
1 (1.5%)
2100-beyond
3 (4.5%)

Total Members Voted: 64

Voting closed: July 27, 2018, 07:46:32 AM

Author Topic: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?  (Read 116206 times)

HapHazard

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #600 on: July 21, 2019, 08:57:15 PM »
The choice and arrangement of facts (or, alternatively, 'facts') are part of rhetoric, as the ancient Greek already knew.

Amen to that. Chosen & arranged in a certain manner, the same facts/data can be presented to mean 2 opposing things; in effect, they are all too often wielded as weapons.

I will once again throw out one of my favourite sayings:

Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is interesting, but what they hide is crucial.

Rich

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #601 on: July 21, 2019, 09:08:47 PM »
Archimid, will you calling Rich a denier also, as he thinks a BOE is unlikely by 2030 also?

Please don't put words in my mouth KK.

I said that I see no trend line supporting a BOE by 2030. That is very different from opining that a BOE is likely or unlikely to happen by then.

The non-freeze of the Bering is just a 2 year trend at this point. Not enough to statistically demonstrate that it's a new normal, but a step change that dramatically increases the risk of BOE if it continues.

Only morons like yourself would advise waiting for confirmation of catastrophe outcomes before taking action to prevent them.

crandles

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #602 on: July 21, 2019, 09:16:12 PM »

But this is not all, the shape of the maximum trend line also has consequences for the losses line.
....

I think the opposite is true.  Near record low minima, year after year, has meant more open water at the beginning of the arctic night, with vastly increased outgoing radiation to space in the arctic night.  Yet, the minimum has been trending down, despite this strong negative feedback.

By end of winter, there's still a (thinner) snow+ice cover over most of the traditionally ice-covered arctic, presenting a fairly typically low albedo for the spring high-insolation period.  And yet, losses have been trending to greater values, despite this negative feedback.

There's good reason to believe the observed trends will continue, as GHG levels continue to increase and sub-surface ocean warmth continues to increase.

I agree the minimum is and will continue trending down. A negative feedback like the winter ice thickness feedback does not stop any change. It reduces the effect, but there is still some effect left. (This is before discussing positive feedbacks in summer like albedo.)

But on the subject I was taking about, does the trend in max volume have an effect on trend in minimum volume?

Imagine 2 worlds where in one the maximum winter ice volume is holding steady and another where the maximum volume is trending downwards at quite a high rate. All else is the same including CO2 increases over time, water temperatures, wind temperatures etc.

As the fast declining max ice volume world gets less and less ice, the summer positive albedo feedback can get to work earlier and earlier and the ice volume loss increases more rapidly than in the max volume holding steady world. Does anyone really want to argue against this?
« Last Edit: July 21, 2019, 09:23:12 PM by crandles »

Archimid

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #603 on: July 21, 2019, 09:23:23 PM »

First the maximum volume line. So instead of one straight line we should have shallow decline, steep decline then shallow decline again. Fast rate being thick MYI disappearing and not coming back. Now this has gone there is more FYI which mainly reforms each winter so a shallower decline line for the maximum. This pushes the date of the intersection to later dates.


I try to capture what you are talking about dividing losses by maximum of each year. See first graph attached. I drew a 5 year average line through it that clearly shows the steps you mention.

 Before the early 2000's the ratio of loses to max grew very slowly. Around 2007 all hell broke lose and losses accelerated significantly while the maximum dropped more slowly. This continues until the record low year 2012. After 2012 the opposite happened. Maximum kept dropping but the losses stabilized relative to the high change years.

Until then the models were correct. 2013 and 2014 recovered. Then three hottest years on record happened.  2016 dropped to near record levels but there was no rebound. 2017 became the lowest max on record by a significant margin. Auto correlation be damned.

Then the obligatory low following  a max happened. El niño went away, the world cooled a bit. 2017 and 2018 recovered, but nothing like 2013 and 14.

Now 2019 with a weak el niño and favorable Atlantic temperatures for ice retention is showing us the true trend. Volume record seems likely to be broken, even when all that is left is "difficult" to melt ice and very low amount of it, according to your argument.

The next super el niño which will happen on top of the global warming and albedo feedback that will accumulate until then, is likely the end.


Quote
However, now that the fast rate of max volume decline has gone away

Have they gone away? 2017 just happenned and it was the lowest volume gain since the change of state in 2007.

Quote
this effect also goes away and the rate of increase in losses should also be expected to be slower. (That isn't even considering whether losses decline as the ice shrinks to areas that are harder to melt)

This would be more believable if the enthalpy of fusion wasn't a thing.

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

El Cid

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #604 on: July 21, 2019, 09:29:34 PM »
Actually, the regional PIOMAS data that Wipneus posts starts on the year 2000. I merely used the whole data set. Where did you get regional PIOMAS from 1979?

It's on the piomas site, I just downloaded it

crandles

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #605 on: July 21, 2019, 09:35:22 PM »
Actually, the regional PIOMAS data that Wipneus posts starts on the year 2000. I merely used the whole data set. Where did you get regional PIOMAS from 1979?

It's on the piomas site, I just downloaded it

Archmid's CAB excludes the peripheral seas. Your PIOMAS data includes them.

jdallen

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #606 on: July 21, 2019, 10:09:21 PM »
Actually, the regional PIOMAS data that Wipneus posts starts on the year 2000. I merely used the whole data set. Where did you get regional PIOMAS from 1979?

It's on the piomas site, I just downloaded it

Archmid's CAB excludes the peripheral seas. Your PIOMAS data includes them.
For the sake of identifying trends, the peripheral seas very much need to be left out, as even before the current decline, they tended to melt out entirely over the melt season and buffer the numbers in ways that mask the actual shift in system behavior.

Archmid's arguments are very persuasive, and match my more anecdotal evaluation of what we are seeing.  I think the leveling off or even slight de-acceleration in the rate of volume decline is an "asymptotic" effect.  Namely, we are now approaching "hard" limits of the system, much like a descending pendulum starting to scrape a surface.  That suggests to me we've already made one non-reversible transition in system state.

The question now to be answered is how long it will stay in this current state before tipping into the next one - which would be where we see regular BoE's.

My own sense is that it will happen sometime in the next ten years, which I evaluate in terms of probabilities. 

This year I think is the 2nd (after 2016) where there was a non-zero probability of a BoE.  I don't think it will happen this year, but there is still good reason to believe 2019 will challenge 2012 for the low extent record.  I think we are seeing a cumulative increase in potential for it moving forward.  Pick your number - 1%, 2%, 5% (mine) or higher, I think that will stack up as enthalpy in the region and globe as a whole continues to stack up and pass key "non-tangible" thresholds which govern climate state. 

When it comes, it will likely be sudden and still a surprise, even though we are looking for it.
This space for Rent.

crandles

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #607 on: July 21, 2019, 10:53:03 PM »
Umm, I don't really believe this graph as the green and purple trend lines don't cross in future and with continues GHG emissions I believe they will. Also sorry about the trendlind being extended outside the range they are meant to apply to which makes graph horribly messy.


Anyway the issue I am trying to address is: If the green line is less steep than the yellow as implied by accepting MYI destroyed explanation, should the purple line also be less steep than the light blue line?

Can of course pick different change points and get different slopes. Not really enough data to do this reliably yet, but in principle, the purple line being less upward sloping than light blue seems an obvious conclusion to me.

Whether purple line should be positive or negatively sloped is a different argument about whether remaining ice is is harder to melt locations.

These need more data to verify, but so far the data suggests what?

jdallen

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #608 on: July 21, 2019, 11:09:25 PM »
Umm, I don't really believe this graph as the green and purple trend lines don't cross in future and with continues GHG emissions I believe they will. Also sorry about the trendlind being extended outside the range they are meant to apply to which makes graph horribly messy.

<snippage>

These need more data to verify, but so far the data suggests what?
I think the problem lies in the fact we are trying to collapse probability in a 3 dimensional system over time down to 1 absolute scalar value.

I think what we need is something like the "probability of melt" map we've seen elsewhere on the forum, where we evaluate each section of the map in turn over time.

Then I'd say we can stack probabilities to something more sensible.
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crandles

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #609 on: July 21, 2019, 11:28:01 PM »
I try to capture what you are talking about

Doesn't seem to capture it very well, which probably means I explained badly. So I had another go.

Anyway, where are we up to?

Do you accept that my green line is less steep than a line through all the April data?
This pretty well necessarily follows from accepting a faster rate of decline while the MYI was destroyed?
And this suggest a longer time to ice free state?

If the max trendline changes the rate of decline to being less steep, do you accept this is likely to make the losses (April - Sept) trend line less positively sloped?
And this also suggests a longer time to ice free state?

icefisher

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #610 on: July 21, 2019, 11:56:46 PM »
Volume is key to future ice health.  Expect continued year-over-year maximum volume losses unless a strong La Nina or major volcanic eruption occurs.  Without those interventions a 15-20% max volume loss compared to 2018 is possible by 2023.  Adding the effects of a major El Nino with lower maximum volumes after 2023 creates circumstances leading to a Low Volume Event and a potential BOE no later than 2030.  Another potential ice risk is a solar maximum.  When is the next solar maximum?  Is there a possibility that all of these risks will happen at the same time? ??? :-[

Archimid

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #611 on: July 22, 2019, 12:56:28 AM »
I think that starting the purple line in 2013 is a better choice than 2011, as in 2011 there were large amounts of thick ice left, same as 2012. 2013 better captures the beginning of a new state.  The minimum is undergoing a hiatus until the maximum is low enough and the arctic is hot enough to support bigger losses. This year is on trend to pull the purple line up and if the Chukchi and Bering behave like last year, the green line down.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

crandles

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #612 on: July 22, 2019, 01:19:41 AM »
I think that starting the purple line in 2013 is a better choice than 2011,

Probably more reasonable purple trendline even if I don't like gap between purple and blue lines at 2013. Also less data so more uncertainty about the trendline slope.

Previously missed the 2019 data point for April. Oops.

El Cid

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #613 on: July 22, 2019, 09:18:02 AM »
Actually, the regional PIOMAS data that Wipneus posts starts on the year 2000. I merely used the whole data set. Where did you get regional PIOMAS from 1979?

It's on the piomas site, I just downloaded it

Archmid's CAB excludes the peripheral seas. Your PIOMAS data includes them.

No. I only used CAB volume (they have it on their site in the monthly file broken down by seas), and I think that is the right approach as the peripherial seas mostly melt out. The lines I drew are also (just like Archimid's) meaningless anyway as the system is nonlinear. The CAB might hold out for another 20-30 years even, ot go poof in the 2020s. Impossible to say. Nooone knows and what is more noone can know.

El Cid

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #614 on: July 22, 2019, 09:25:44 AM »
I attach CAB volume (rolling 12 months, PIOMAS) since 1980. As you can all see, it has not gone anywhere since about 2010, meaning that the central pack has different characteristics than the periphery. This "hiatus" is probably caused by the fact that by the time the periphery melts out (aug-sept) it is too late to attack the CAB which is thicker anyway. How long this state lasts is impossible to say. Eventually the meltout in the periphery will happen earlier (maybe by July) and there will be time to "attack" the CAB which might or might not kill it completely. This "hiatus" is obviously (considering the ever warmer seas) will end some time. Noone knows when though and linear projections are useless, especially that there are obvious state-changes on the graph.

Rich

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #615 on: July 22, 2019, 11:07:08 AM »
That's an A+ post El Cid. Explanation and chart tie it all together.

gerontocrat

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #616 on: July 22, 2019, 12:12:23 PM »
The CAB has about 20% of the area of the Arctic Ocean and
- about 50% of the volume at maximum,
- about 90% of the volume at minimum.

and....

What story do you want ?
Choose your trend line and any future is yours.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Rich

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #617 on: July 22, 2019, 12:39:07 PM »
The CAB has about 20% of the area of the Arctic Ocean and
- about 50% of the volume at maximum,
- about 90% of the volume at minimum.

and....

What story do you want ?
Choose your trend line and any future is yours.

Regardless of the conclusion, I prefer the story with the Central Basin as the main character in the plot.

The other characters are lacking in depth and becoming too predictable.

crandles

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #618 on: July 22, 2019, 12:41:54 PM »

No. I only used CAB volume (they have it on their site in the monthly file broken down by seas),

My apologies.

(I still haven't found it.)

Archimid

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #619 on: July 22, 2019, 01:46:11 PM »
Quote
How long this state lasts is impossible to say.

Given that you are risking all our lives, you better be damn sure. You are betting our lives that the hiatus will last more than 30 years. That you are saying this at the the same time it looks like the hiatus may be broken is a type of irony that I have grown used to in climate change debates.


This is an update on this year losses for the CAB.
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binntho

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #620 on: July 22, 2019, 01:56:42 PM »
Given that you are risking all our lives ...

What's with the hyberbole? Nobody on this forum is risking my life.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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Archimid

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #621 on: July 22, 2019, 02:08:46 PM »
Denying the risk of climate change, particularly, denying the risk to all our lives that A BOE presents is placing our lives at risk. This is not hyperbole, although it sounds like it. It is the simple fact.

The conclusions the IPCC reaches will determine our response to the threat. If you read Crandles post about the IPCC, the only conclusion a decision maker can reach is to wait and see.

What El Cid and Crandles are doing is a version of "no warming since 1998".  Their arguments are not a product of science or logic. Their arguments are a product of freezing fear that stops them from seeing evidence that confirms their fears.

If they are advocating no action against climate change and no alarm, they better have a damn good case, because the evidence is reason for great alarm.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Phil.

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #622 on: July 22, 2019, 02:11:04 PM »
Quote
How long this state lasts is impossible to say.
This is an update on this year losses for the CAB.

What are the units for the graph, loss in what terms cubic km?

Archimid

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #623 on: July 22, 2019, 02:18:00 PM »
1000 km3.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

crandles

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #624 on: July 22, 2019, 02:24:12 PM »
What El Cid and Crandles are doing is a version of "no warming since 1998".  Their arguments are not a product of science or logic. Their arguments are a product of freezing fear that stops them from seeing evidence that confirms their fears.

If they are advocating no action against climate change and no alarm, they better have a damn good case, because the evidence is reason for great alarm.

I am not advocating no action against climate change. I think we should be doing a lot more than we are doing.

In arguing for more action, I believe the case should be sound. There is plenty of good reason for more action without unduly hyping uncertainty and threats are are likely quite mild and/or highly unlikely.

Hyping uncertainty and/or threats and/or the possible timeline for things that are not really considered very serious, just gives conservatives reason to dismiss environmentalists as wide eyed, gullible, tree hugging, alarmist fools.

binntho

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #625 on: July 22, 2019, 02:24:44 PM »
Denying the risk of climate change,
I'm not seeing anybody denying the risk of climate change?
Quote
particularly, denying the risk to all our lives that A BOE presents
What risk does a BOE present to me above and beyond the general risk of continued AGW to my life? None in my opinion.
Quote
is placing our lives at risk.
So I'm putting my (and your) life at risk by denying that BOE presents a risk above and beyond continued AGW?
Quote
This is not hyperbole, although it sounds like it.
Sounds like it, looks like it.
Quote
It is the simple fact.
When your hyberbolista starts claiming to know "the simple fact" about something then I think it's time to reach for the 'brellas.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

Archimid

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #626 on: July 22, 2019, 02:46:34 PM »
Quote
I'm not seeing anybody denying the risk of climate change?

You can't see anyone denying risk of climate change? Here. Read your own words.

Quote
What risk does a BOE present to me above and beyond the general risk of continued AGW to my life? None in my opinion.

I mean, you say that you don't see anyone denying risk in the same post that you deny the risk. If you can't see it when you deny it, how do you expect to see it when others deny it?  See, this is not science or logic. These types of contradictions are products of fear psychology.

Let's keep going

Quote
So I'm putting my (and your) life at risk by denying that BOE presents a risk above and beyond continued AGW?

Correct. The harm that climate change will cause is a function of climate change but also of our response to it. If we ignore the threat that events like a BOE presents, then we will not prepare for them, making any negative effect orders of magnitude worse.

Quote
Sounds like it, looks like it.

Yep. It is impossible to tell scary truths without sounding scary. That's a big disadvantage because people don't want to be scared about a not so distant event in the North pole. They have enough on their plate. If this was true they would be forced into action. That is too much to ask. It is easier to deny the risk. The chorus singing for risk denial makes it that much easier.

Quote
When your hyberbolista starts claiming to know "the simple fact" about something then I think it's time to reach for the 'brellas.

An ice less Arctic ocean during summer is not hyperbole. It is so terrible that it sounds like hyperbole, but it is just simple physics.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Rich

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #627 on: July 22, 2019, 02:48:07 PM »
Denying the risk of climate change, particularly, denying the risk to all our lives that A BOE presents is placing our lives at risk. This is not hyperbole, although it sounds like it. It is the simple fact.


I am with you in spirit Archimid, but not on this point.

I agree with you completely that society is not demonstrating appropriate risk management as it pertains to AGW.  The anecdotal data in support of potential looming catastrophe are overwhelming in their support of putting the brakes on GHG emissions.

Where I disagree with you is strictly regarding the focus on imminent BOE. The point that El Cid is making regarding the fundamental difference between CAB and rest of Arctic is salient. Focusing on CAB trends alone, we do not get a BOE by 2030 or 2040.

We could easily get a BOE before then as a result of state change (like Bering / Chuchki) or freak weather, but that:s not something we should expect the IPCC to forecast.

We give ammo to the deniers like KK by advancing claims such as BOE before 2030 which aren't empirically supported.

There are many better arguments in support of impending catastrophe than BOE.

binntho

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #628 on: July 22, 2019, 02:57:57 PM »
Quote
I'm not seeing anybody denying the risk of climate change?

You can't see anyone denying risk of climate change? Here. Read your own words.

Quote
What risk does a BOE present to me above and beyond the general risk of continued AGW to my life? None in my opinion.

I mean, you say that you don't see anyone denying risk in the same post that you deny the risk. If you can't see it when you deny it, how do you expect to see it when others deny it?  See, this is not science or logic. These types of contradictions are products of fear psychology.
I'm not sure if you are reading what I wrote? I do not think that BOE causes any risk to me or mankind above and beyond the general risk of continued AGW.

I've seen nothing that indicates that the huge risk involved in continued AGW is in any significant way increased (or decreased) by a BOE.

Does that mean that I deny that there is a risk involved in continued AGW? Of course not. Stop spouting nonsense my dear man!
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

FishOutofWater

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #629 on: July 22, 2019, 03:06:54 PM »
What trends in the central Arctic. What we're seeing is a series of downward steps at irregular intervals. Those steps are related to the polewards advance of warm water and warm air in the north Atlantic and the intensification of El Niño with the heating of the planet. Surges of warm salty water into the Arctic from the north Atlantic have been irregular, but they involve large amounts of heat so they have a pan Arctic impact.

Forget about drawing lines and curves through irregular steps to make a forecast. We need to understand the steps better or we need to use a model that has stochastic elements.

Yes, the IPCC and governments have been doing abysmal risk management. There are huge weather and climate impacts of the polewards movement of ocean heat apart from the issue of an ice free Arctic in September. We are already seeing those impacts but they will get worse even if we do everything right to cut GHG emissions because of the earth's energy imbalance caused by thermal disequilibrium with the middle and deep oceans.

Archimid

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #630 on: July 22, 2019, 03:12:26 PM »
Quote
Where I disagree with you is strictly regarding the focus on imminent BOE.

Fine. As the arctic shrinks and the NH weather goes to shit then the scientist in you will agree with me. It might be too late then.

Quote
Where I disagree with you is strictly regarding the focus on imminent BOE. The point that El Cid is making regarding the fundamental difference between CAB and rest of Arctic is salient. Focusing on CAB trends alone, we do not get a BOE by 2030 or 2040.

Focusing on CAB trends alone is terrifying. Understanding the step changes the ice has gone through is reason for alarm. However, if displayed as conservatively as possible, if all context is ignores and a 30 years hiatus is assumed, the CAB reflects what you say.

Quote
We give ammo to the deniers like KK by advancing claims such as BOE before 2030 which aren't empirically supported.

It simply does not work like that. It does not matter what you say or how you say it, it will be taken out of context and misinterpreted to their hearts contempt. They question NASA's and NOAA dataset, they will question everything.

That's why it is better to tell the best truth, without worrying about what others will say and do.

Quote
There are many better arguments in support of impending catastrophe than BOE.


Nope. The disappearance of the Arctic is the greatest threat of climate change. The only things that can potentially be worse are plastic contamination or maybe ocean anoxia.

No other single event presents a larger risk.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Klondike Kat

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #631 on: July 22, 2019, 03:16:04 PM »
Quote
I'm not seeing anybody denying the risk of climate change?

You can't see anyone denying risk of climate change? Here. Read your own words.

Quote
What risk does a BOE present to me above and beyond the general risk of continued AGW to my life? None in my opinion.

I mean, you say that you don't see anyone denying risk in the same post that you deny the risk. If you can't see it when you deny it, how do you expect to see it when others deny it?  See, this is not science or logic. These types of contradictions are products of fear psychology.
I'm not sure if you are reading what I wrote? I do not think that BOE causes any risk to me or mankind above and beyond the general risk of continued AGW.

I've seen nothing that indicates that the huge risk involved in continued AGW is in any significant way increased (or decreased) by a BOE.

Does that mean that I deny that there is a risk involved in continued AGW? Of course not. Stop spouting nonsense my dear man!

I believe that the problem is that there are several posters claiming knowledge of an imminent catastrophic event, without supporting evidence.  These same posters claim that anyone who does not believe their scenario is accurate, must be a denier.  As gerontocrat posted, one can obtain substantially different projections simple by varying the graphic fit chosen.  As El Cid posted, there appears to be state change after the periphery ice has melted, and the melting of the CAB may progress at an entire different rate.  While the overall trajectory points towards a BOE, the data gives little indications as to when. and certainly not imminently.  That does not mean that a sudden change could not occur in the very near future, which causes another substantial downturn in sea ice.

Knowledgeable people, here and elsewhere, have various speculations of the timing and overall consequences of a BOE.  As crandles stated, hyping timelines and threats only gives more ammunition to conservatives, wishing to dismiss environmentalists as alarmist.  How many claims of an ice-free Arctic have failed to materialize in the recent past.  I see no reason to add any more.  If that make me a denier Rich, then so be it.  I will take realism and accuracy in data over hyperbole any day of the week.

Archimid

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #632 on: July 22, 2019, 03:27:22 PM »

I'm not sure if you are reading what I wrote? I do not think that BOE causes any risk to me or mankind above and beyond the general risk of continued AGW.

You are not reading what you wrote. A BOE presents a much greater risk than the generalized risk of AGW. you are denying it does, yet you think you are not.

Quote
I've seen nothing that indicates that the huge risk involved in continued AGW is in any significant way increased (or decreased) by a BOE.

If you can't see yourself denying the risk, I doubt you can see the risk. There are countless thread of this forum that contain very good arguments, supported by good data that clearly outline the risks of a BOE. Accepting the risk a BOE presents is not for the faint of heart.

Quote
Does that mean that I deny that there is a risk involved in continued AGW? Of course not. Stop spouting nonsense my dear man!

You are denying risk, vigorously and without evidence or logic, yet you think you are not denying risk. 

Let me help you out.

 You can make a list of all the threats climate change offers.

That list can be ordered in many ways, for severity and time. A BOE would be on top of that list, by a significant margin.

Divide and conquer. A time tested strategy applicable to everything from math problems to war.

Thus it is worth it to focus on the event that is likely to be the worse of a long list of horrible events.
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binntho

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #633 on: July 22, 2019, 03:35:17 PM »

I'm not sure if you are reading what I wrote? I do not think that BOE causes any risk to me or mankind above and beyond the general risk of continued AGW.

You are not reading what you wrote. A BOE presents a much greater risk than the generalized risk of AGW. you are denying it does, yet you think you are not.
What total nonsense.

A BOE is at most something  that gets in the news. AGW is already killing people and has the potential to totally wreck our civilization.

BOE bullocks!

And don't think that I think that losing Arctic Sea Ice is not a huge danger to us all. It has consequences that are already visible, and will only get worse.

The only denier here is you, Archimid, ignoring the very real and huge threat from ongoing AGW and focusing on a putative and spurious sometime-in-the-future BOE.

AGW is a huge risk and an ongoing catastrophe. Hammering on about a non-event that may or may not materialise within the next decade or six can perhaps be called hyperdenialism?

As in "nothing bad is happening now nor will it before we have my hyperbolically huge event that only I think is the real and only catastrophe that will wreck us all and where did I put my undies".
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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Archimid

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #634 on: July 22, 2019, 03:43:52 PM »
Quote
What total nonsense.

Sigh. how does this:

Quote
A BOE is at most something  that gets in the news. AGW is already killing people and has the potential to totally wreck our civilization.

does not contradict this:

Quote
And don't think that I think that losing Arctic Sea Ice is not a huge danger to us all. It has consequences that are already visible, and will only get worse.

A BOE is a huge danger for us all but at most, it is something that gets in the news.

Please explain.
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Rich

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #635 on: July 22, 2019, 03:47:19 PM »
As it pertains to BOE, you are not a denier KK. I actually agree with you here.

The denier label speaks to your general contribution at ASIF.

If you check the polls taken here, the expectation of the voting members of ASIF is BOE in the near future. Much sooner than CAB trend lines would suggest.

In a sense, I think the ASIF community hands the deniers an easy win by engaging in so much speculation about imminent BOE. If I were a denier with an agenda of maintaining BAU, this is where I would want the conversation to be. This is where I would show up and amplify the denier message of uncertainty.

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #636 on: July 22, 2019, 03:53:01 PM »
Rich, there is thread for the consequences of a BOE, it is new and not as rich as other threads.  I invite you to read and participate in it and tell us why a BOE is not worth focusing on or it doesn't present life threatening consequences above and beyond AGW.

In the coming year it will become evident, but it also may become too late.
« Last Edit: July 22, 2019, 04:01:40 PM by Archimid »
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binntho

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #637 on: July 22, 2019, 04:06:56 PM »
Quote
What total nonsense.

Sigh. how does this:

Quote
A BOE is at most something  that gets in the news. AGW is already killing people and has the potential to totally wreck our civilization.

does not contradict this:

Quote
And don't think that I think that losing Arctic Sea Ice is not a huge danger to us all. It has consequences that are already visible, and will only get worse.

A BOE is a huge danger for us all but at most, it is something that gets in the news.

Please explain.
I did not say that a BOE is a huge danger. On the contrary, I think I made it abundantly clear that I think a BOE is a non-event.

The ongoing loss of Arctic Ice is not a BOE, and it is the ongoing and continuing loss of Arctic Ice that is already having dangerous effects and will only get worse as more ice is loss. Irregardless of an eventual BOE.

It seems you are confusing an event (which will be noteworthy but inconsequential) with an ongoing process (which is already causing danger and disruption and will continue to do so regardless of when BOE happens).

And this strange type of denialism, i.e. denying the real ongoing disruptions and real dangers in the near future and instead focusing on a hypothetical event after so and so many years as the point we have to avoid, is really a bit disturbing.

Are you, Archimid, denying that ongoing AGW is causing, and will cause, major disruptions and loss of life?
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

Klondike Kat

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #638 on: July 22, 2019, 04:14:44 PM »
As it pertains to BOE, you are not a denier KK. I actually agree with you here.

The denier label speaks to your general contribution at ASIF.

If you check the polls taken here, the expectation of the voting members of ASIF is BOE in the near future. Much sooner than CAB trend lines would suggest.

In a sense, I think the ASIF community hands the deniers an easy win by engaging in so much speculation about imminent BOE. If I were a denier with an agenda of maintaining BAU, this is where I would want the conversation to be. This is where I would show up and amplify the denier message of uncertainty.

I agree with your post, until you mention uncertainty.  I disagree that the denier message is uncertainty.  Most denier talk uses no uncertain terms when they claim that AGW is a myth, farce, political agenda, etc.  Uncertainty is a scientific standard which should never be dismissed as political propaganda.  Yes, many voters here fall into the tail end of the uncertainty curve on just about every Arctic sea ice prediction.

dnem

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #639 on: July 22, 2019, 04:19:51 PM »
Strongly disagree KK!! Sowing doubt is the key strategy of the denial movement.  At this point only kooks and fools push the "myth" line. 

TeaPotty

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #640 on: July 22, 2019, 04:37:26 PM »
I generally consider it a waste of time to argue with deniers. The consequences of our climate crisis generally doesn't apply to them, and so the only risk they are concerned with is monetary, and not risk to human life.

More importantly, what is the greatest risk to human life as a consequence of climate change?
Changes in rainfall patterns, of course.

Humans need water for consumption, for food, for cleaning, etc.
We are already seeing drastic changes in our rainfall patterns, and you cannot pretend a BOE won't be a major factor, as the hastily melting Arctic Sea Ice already has.

We're already seeing how its effecting political stability in regions that have gone very dry, with migration gradually increasing. We're also seeing the consequences of too much rain in North America this year, with terrible consequences to farmers' growing season.
« Last Edit: July 22, 2019, 04:43:14 PM by TeaPotty »

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #641 on: July 22, 2019, 05:11:59 PM »
Don't forget, we just might go down to 3 Mm^2 this year, 2 Mm^2 in a couple years, and nearly no ice at all in the mid-Twenties, for longer and longer periods each year.
Then we could have catastrophic consequences at 1.3 Mm^2 in 2023 and very catastrophic ones at 0.6 Mm^2 in 2024. We may have the consequences before we hit 1 Mm^2, in other words.
There is nothing magical between almost a BOE and just slightly beyond a BOE.
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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #642 on: July 22, 2019, 05:26:56 PM »
I generally consider it a waste of time to argue with deniers. The consequences of our climate crisis generally doesn't apply to them, and so the only risk they are concerned with is monetary, and not risk to human life.

More importantly, what is the greatest risk to human life as a consequence of climate change?
Changes in rainfall patterns, of course.

Humans need water for consumption, for food, for cleaning, etc.
We are already seeing drastic changes in our rainfall patterns, and you cannot pretend a BOE won't be a major factor, as the hastily melting Arctic Sea Ice already has.

We're already seeing how its effecting political stability in regions that have gone very dry, with migration gradually increasing. We're also seeing the consequences of too much rain in North America this year, with terrible consequences to farmers' growing season.

I would agree with everything you just said.  How a BOE affects rainfall globally will be the major concern.

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #643 on: July 22, 2019, 06:44:19 PM »

Are you, Archimid, denying that ongoing AGW is causing, and will cause, major disruptions and loss of life?

The damage caused by AGW will pale in comparison with the damage caused by a BOE. Climate change will be much worse for not having ice over the Arctic during summer than for the increase in global temperatures.

Orders of magnitude worse. Unimaginably worse. It is impossible to be hyperbolic about it. It is the end of the world as we know it.

You all assume I'm not considering a BOE a continuum. I am. I'm also assuming that the continuum already started and most of you will change your minds over the next several years because the change will be obvious and painful to most of us.
« Last Edit: July 22, 2019, 07:09:22 PM by Archimid »
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dnem

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #644 on: July 22, 2019, 07:05:57 PM »
Got it Archimid.  You've said your piece.  If the arctic ice collapses and the climate breaks down over the next few years, you'll be on record.  I don't think there is any reason to keep saying it.

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #645 on: July 22, 2019, 07:45:32 PM »
Got it Archimid.  You've said your piece.


I hope that for as long as the evidence holds and I have the strength to keep saying it (and Neven lets me) I will keep saying it. I hope the evidence changes, if and when it does I will change my mind. Right now, given the knows, unknowns and observations, everyone should be alarmed.

Anyone not alarmed is either ignorant about the reality of climate change or a victim of fear psychology. This is alarming.

 
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If the arctic ice collapses and the climate breaks down over the next few years, you'll be on record.
 

The arctic is already collapsing and the climate is already breaking down, but because every tic takes 1/70th of your lifetime, some longer, you can't notice it. This breakdown was very slow, until about the middle of the 00's when it picked up speed. Now things are collapsing faster, forcing faster collapse of other things, all in ultra slow motion to us H. sapiens, but not for long.

"Luckily" as climate change happens more often and in larger scale it is easier for more people to observe it and more difficult to hide their heads in the sand. Sadly, there is a tipping point where  climate change is too noticeable to do anything about it.

Quote
I don't think there is any reason to keep saying it.

The earlier people know, the more preparation will be done, the more people will survive. The more people understand the danger, the more solutions will emerge.

Right now, everyone is busy solving climate change for 2100, because "this is a problem for our children". It is not. This is a problem for us TODAY and NOW.  If we are solving for 2100 we are not solving for 2030, much less for today.

And we are solving for 2100 because the science is assuming a permanence of the world that really isn't there.  Abrupt climate change is real and it is already happening.

The research on this is basically non-existent because it is just too grim. If it was just the grimness it wouldn't be so bad, but then you have the chorus of people telling you to shut up because this is scary. They exert real pressure to shut up and not talk about it because it is scary.
 
This phenomenon happens everywhere from ASIF to the IPCC to the intelligence agencies of the world's greatest countries ( by their own measure).

It can't possibly be that bad... right? Wrong. It is that bad, and if it isn't, we should assume it is because it is going to be very damned bad.

Again I invite you to the effects of a BOE on the climate thread, over at /consequences. Bring evidence, bring studies, bring papers, bring your understanding of how things work. Go shut me up and bring me some peace.

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

TeaPotty

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #646 on: July 22, 2019, 08:08:16 PM »
Got it Archimid.  You've said your piece.  If the arctic ice collapses and the climate breaks down over the next few years, you'll be on record.  I don't think there is any reason to keep saying it.

2019 is one of the worst arctic ice melt and climate breakdown years, in a thread meant for discussion about a BOE.

We are in the early stages of a trajectory that could very likely to lead to a collapse of civilization. Nearly every climate consequence is happening faster than we expected, and more interconnected with unknown feedbacks. That's a fact.

Claiming otherwise is factually wrong. Deal with it.
« Last Edit: July 22, 2019, 11:05:04 PM by TeaPotty »

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #647 on: July 22, 2019, 09:02:58 PM »
The blind are willfully blind and will not see. They are also unfortunately numerous - too numerous. And they doom us all in their willful ignorance.

A BOE of a day won’t severely disrupt climate. A BOE of a month might. A BOE of a season certainly will.

The great discontinuities that concern me the most are radical shifts in oceanic and atmospheric circulation. A prolonged BOE will wreck havoc on both, and each on the other. These won’t be linear changes. They will be something else.

To blithely hand waive them away shows stunning ignorance of the data and model projections.

Sigh. Alas. Such is our fate. We will get to see this play out. And we will all have seats on stage as the crescendo crashes, the scene shifts, and a whole new geologic epoch begins.

Sam

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #648 on: July 22, 2019, 10:10:51 PM »
Hey, I'm TOTALLY alarmed.  I agree with Archimid, albeit with less certainty about the timing.  Obviously the arctic ice is collapsing and the climate is breaking down.  That is plain to see.  My point was a matter of etiquette on this site.  I realize I'm no one and have no authority to tell anyone how to behave here.  IMHO, it grows tiresome to keep repeating the same point.  The posters here are obviously paying attention and have their own strong opinions.  Take your passion to the streets.  Fighting back and forth on this site with someone with entrenched views is pointless. 

I have a 16 YO son.  If I knew then what is plain to see now, I never would have had kids.  I promise you, I'm plenty alarmed.

Peace.

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #649 on: July 22, 2019, 10:21:31 PM »
Quote
It can't possibly be that bad... right? Wrong. It is that bad, and if it isn't, we should assume it is because it is going to be very damned bad.
Quote
A BOE of a day won’t severely disrupt climate. A BOE of a month might. A BOE of a season certainly will.
I agree that GW (which is all AGW) is bad and is getting worse, and deserves our shouting from the rooftops.  I'm not certain about what drives what (systems are interconnected and complicated), so a one-day BOE will, I believe, be associated with a noticeably more disrupted climate then we have now, and a month-long BOE will be associated with noticeably more disrupted climate than when we had the first one-day BOE.

I think we'll know more (by experience) what a BOE-associated climate is like this next decade.  But I don't really think a BOE will be the driving force that takes us places we do not want to go in a hand-basket; I believe CO2e is.  (In 2013 I projected the first BOE would be "prior to 2019", so I've  tripled my opinion of our allotted time of wondering!)
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.