Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Poll

When will the Arctic Extent dip below 1,000,000 Km^2

2018-2019
12 (17.9%)
2020-2025
21 (31.3%)
2026-2030
13 (19.4%)
2031-2040
15 (22.4%)
2041-2060
2 (3%)
2061-2080
0 (0%)
2081-2099
1 (1.5%)
2100-beyond
3 (4.5%)

Total Members Voted: 64

Voting closed: July 27, 2018, 07:46:32 AM

Author Topic: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?  (Read 132292 times)

Rich

  • Guest
Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #650 on: July 22, 2019, 10:29:32 PM »

I agree with your post, until you mention uncertainty.  I disagree that the denier message is uncertainty. 

Please don't be disingenuous. Denier fashion changes. .
Even Mitch McConnell is now public acknowledging that AGW is real. The favorite scientist in GOP circles has long been Judith Curry, purveyor of uncertainty.

A denier today is anyone who denies the urgent need to replace fossil fuels with renewables asap. 

The argument keeps changing, but the goal is the same....extract and sell as much petrol as possible for as long as possible.

The fundamental progression of AGW and it's consequences is no longer a winnable argument. The "pause" is over. Jennifer Francis is doing a great job of explaining the wacky weather changes. Heat records are being broken routinely. Hydrological extremes are obvious.

The trick for deniers today is to prey on alarmist arguments. Find someone(s) who overstates the case and try and make others believe that the alarmist message is the position of mainstream scientists.

Alarmist overreach is like dumpster food. You know it will attract rats. That's where deniers want to hang out.

If you want to share your perspective on managing the downside risk associated with GHG levels, the floor is yours. Here's your chance to prove that you're not a denier. Go for it.

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3024
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 189
  • Likes Given: 172
Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #651 on: July 22, 2019, 10:35:15 PM »
<various snippages>
I did not say that a BOE is a huge danger. On the contrary, I think I made it abundantly clear that I think a BOE is a non-event.

The ongoing loss of Arctic Ice is not a BOE, and it is the ongoing and continuing loss of Arctic Ice that is already having dangerous effects and will only get worse as more ice is loss. Irregardless of an eventual BOE.
On this, I have to say I'm in concord with binntho.  For all of our wrangling over what is an entirely symbolic metric threshold (1000km3 of ice), it is an effect, rather than a cause.

That cause - general heating of the Arctic climate - is already generating cascading failures in the biome and through teleconnections wreaking havoc all across the northern hemisphere.  One need go no further than news of massive animal die offs, massive floods, crushing heat waves, and images of half of Siberia under wood smoke to validate this.

This will no doubt scale with time, but reaching the specific above mentioned threshold will not mark nor prompt any abrupt transition that isn't already well underway, nor already having pronounced effects on the world.

The rest of it - the personal charges of denialism et. al. - are value judgements, and are really out of place here.

Gentle sentients, can we please return to the discussion of science rather than tearing at each other?
This space for Rent.

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3970
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 422
  • Likes Given: 49
Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #652 on: July 23, 2019, 12:58:32 AM »
Thank you jdallen...

Rich

  • Guest
Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #653 on: July 23, 2019, 03:11:26 AM »
The Arctic ice will never be free. It is permanently enslaved in the Arctic for life.

Sometimes it makes a run for it, but it always gets caught and killed before getting out of Baffin Bay or the Greenland Sea.

It's touching that so many here are concerned with making the Arctic ice free, but maybe it's not a bad place to be stuck. There are loads of critters just dying to get to the Arctic because it's getting too damn hot in the Pacific and Atlantic.

I have more sympathy for the Antarctic ice. 30 million years in the same spot surrounded by the same ice. Imagine the boredom. I'd rather melt.

Archimid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2374
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 290
  • Likes Given: 184
Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #654 on: July 23, 2019, 03:28:36 AM »
Quote
For all of our wrangling over what is an entirely symbolic metric threshold (1000km3 of ice), it is an effect, rather than a cause.


Sorry JD, but in this you are wrong. A BOE is not symbolic. It used to be just effect, but it is now both cause and effect.

Quote
That cause - general heating of the Arctic climate - is already generating cascading failures in the biome and through teleconnections wreaking havoc all across the northern hemisphere.

CO2 alone is not causing this. Not anymore. The system is now feeding of itself.

Quote
This will no doubt scale with time, but reaching the specific above mentioned threshold will not mark nor prompt any abrupt transition that isn't already well underway, nor already having pronounced effects on the world.

Abrupt changes are already under way. As the ice shrinks they will be greater and when the ice is gone during summer the transition accelerates to maximum.

Quote
Gentle sentients, can we please return to the discussion of science rather than tearing at each other?

Sorry JD, but it is completely and absolutely wrong that a BOE will not be a significant event. I have no clue how you even arrive to that conclusion as it is nonsensical to me. If there is no ice to melt, then the Arctic will warm, significantly, the oceans will mix, humidity parameters will go out of whack.

I'm sorry that I have to resort to emotional appeals but you all are ridiculously wrong about this. It feels as If I'm debating flat earthers, not rational intelligent people.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3024
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 189
  • Likes Given: 172
Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #655 on: July 23, 2019, 05:57:31 AM »
Sorry JD, but in this you are wrong. A BOE is not symbolic. It used to be just effect, but it is now both cause and effect.
I'm not arguing that a lack of ice won't change the Arctic.  Ice loss will and has been doing that.

What I (and I expect binntho) are suggesting is, (1) we don't think it will happen all at once. (2) the cumulative losses we have seen since around 2007 have contributed at least as much to upsetting the system as a BoE would and (3) a BoE will be proceeded by 1 to several years where the extent drops below 2012 levels, which in and of themselves cumulatively will have a greater impact overall on the Arctic than a single BoE event.

Quote
CO2 alone is not causing this. Not anymore. The system is now feeding of itself.

Neither I nor binntho suggest otherwise and agree. Mostly I think we're saying that the harm currently being done, has been done, is greater than a single BoE event would be.  Our conclusion is, a BoE event won't be a trigger on its own.  It will be adding to momentum already in place.  In short, more a result, than a specific cause.

In argument to support that, you need go only as far as the current state of the northern hemisphere jet stream.  It will continue to degrade as the Ferrel, Hadley and Arctic cells collapse, as a direct result of heating already in place and continuing at high latitude.


Quote
Sorry JD, but it is completely and absolutely wrong that a BOE will not be a significant event. I have no clue how you even arrive to that conclusion as it is nonsensical to me. If there is no ice to melt, then the Arctic will warm, significantly, the oceans will mix, humidity parameters will go out of whack.

I'm sorry that I have to resort to emotional appeals but you all are ridiculously wrong about this. It feels as If I'm debating flat earthers, not rational intelligent people.
<SMH> This, my friend, is hubris, flavored with a touch of conceit.

What I hear is, you are so caught up in your conclusion, you are failing to hear or understand the arguments being made contrary to it, and by extension making rather extreme assignations against people who've been fighting to save exactly this ecosystem for a very long time.

I recommend a dose of humility.  I got handed mine about 6 years ago when I first joined the forums.

That said, I *do* believe a BoE will have great symbolic meaning and will help accelerate change in climate, even if its direct effect is more contributory than system breaking as you suggest it will be.
This space for Rent.

binntho

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1061
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 278
  • Likes Given: 75
Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #656 on: July 23, 2019, 07:27:02 AM »
Strange this hyperdenialism that seems to have gripped some people.

Global warming is already killing people and changing whole countries, being a significant factor in the ongoing war in Syria and the biggest risk to national security worldwide as has been comfirmed by, amongst others, the US Army.

The danger to global food production that global warming poses is huge, massive, scarily gigantic.

Denying this very real and present danger by clamoring about a purely hypothetical BOE Harmageddon is - denialism.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

RikW

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 175
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 17
  • Likes Given: 10
Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #657 on: July 23, 2019, 09:45:23 AM »
The problem is that we don't have good models to have reliable predictions when a BoE will happen and what the effect of a BoE will be.

Will there be feedback mechanism kicking in, 'restoring' the ice? Giving us a couple of extra years to act?
Will there be nothing special happening and will global warming just continue?
Will our 3-cell-atmospheric system collapse, possibly creating unstable/unpredictable weather and a fast changing climate?

We can only make educated guesses, because we don't know enough yet.

I personally think it all depends on how early in the season a BoE is happening. Currently the ice keeps the air temperature low, because most energy goes into melting the ice. When you check the temperature graphs, you can see there isn't a change in the summer temperature; If there is no ice/snow left, that limitation is gone; And the 3-cell system is there because of the temperature difference between the tropics and the arctic. When arctic temperature rises enough, i can imagine that system to collapse.

pleun

  • New ice
  • Posts: 34
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 9
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #658 on: July 23, 2019, 10:56:02 AM »
I think maybe Archimid has the mental image in his head of a kettle of water on the stove with a lump of ice in the middle. Not much will happen to the water untill the ice is gone.

I don't know how far you can extend this metafore to the arctic. Is the heat that's entering via the Chuckchi dissipating towards the cab ? Would the Chuckchi be 20 degrees allready if there were no ice in the cab ?

DrTskoul

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1451
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 210
  • Likes Given: 60
Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #659 on: July 23, 2019, 11:18:08 AM »
I think maybe Archimid has the mental image in his head of a kettle of water on the stove with a lump of ice in the middle. Not much will happen to the water untill the ice is gone.

I don't know how far you can extend this metafore to the arctic. Is the heat that's entering via the Chuckchi dissipating towards the cab ? Would the Chuckchi be 20 degrees allready if there were no ice in the cab ?

Only if the kettle is well mixed ... otherwise there will be thermal gradients... the same with the Pacific intrusion... some flows depending on salinity might bypass ice edge...

philopek

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 444
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 159
  • Likes Given: 40
Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #660 on: July 23, 2019, 01:25:40 PM »

I'm sorry that I have to resort to emotional appeals but you all are ridiculously wrong about this. It feels as If I'm debating flat earthers, not rational intelligent people.

First of all +1

Second, only major flaw in your post was the term "you all are....wrong"

I and others have clearly said the exact same thing, perhaps in slightly different terms.

So be happy, you're not alone and i like the example with "flat-earthers" while this is not the only example where I ask myself how certain conclusions can be reached.

However that may be, learning curve on this forum is very high and that means, mission accomplishment under way.

One point i missed and i'm not knowledgeable enough to talk details, is that the amount of energy to melt ice is huge and once there is no ice to melt all that energy will go into the ocean and distributed back to the air later in the season, including humidity that will isolate against heat loss further. I lack the terms and i lack the numbers but i know that is that way.

Archimid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2374
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 290
  • Likes Given: 184
Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #661 on: July 23, 2019, 01:42:43 PM »

What I (and I expect binntho) are suggesting is, (1) we don't think it will happen all at once.


I don't either. Thats just you all putting words in my mouth.

Quote
(2) the cumulative losses we have seen since around 2007 have contributed at least as much to upsetting the system as a BoE would and

This can be easily quantified as not true. The losses from 2007 to today are just a small increase to the albedo feedback effect  and small changes to atmospheric patterns relative to no ice over the entire arctic.

 See tealight's wonderful regional albedo potentials to see where we are on that

https://cryospherecomputing.tk/awp-region.html


(3) a BoE will be proceeded by 1 to several years where the extent drops below 2012 levels, which in and of themselves cumulatively will have a greater impact overall on the Arctic than a single BoE event.

Again, see tealights graphs. The Albedo feedback effects increase until 0 ice is reached. Once 0 is reached the effect increases as 0 is reached earlier and earlier. At hat point  you must, on top of the albedo feedback and atmospheric considerations, account for the lack of ice as extra high temperature.

There will be changes from here to the first BOE, drastic painful changes and many will be tied directly to the loss of sea ice. But after the first BOE thing stake an entirely new form.


<SMH> This, my friend, is hubris, flavored with a touch of conceit.

Quote
What I hear is, you are so caught up in your conclusion, you are failing to hear or understand the arguments being made contrary to it, and by extension making rather extreme assignations against people who've been fighting to save exactly this ecosystem for a very long time.

You are arguing that the climate conditions are bad, partly because the missing ice, but then you argue that if you remove all the ice it doesn't get worse. It doesn't even make sense.

Maybe what you are saying is that we  won't survive the transition to a BOE thus a BOE won't matter? That may be.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

binntho

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1061
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 278
  • Likes Given: 75
Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #662 on: July 23, 2019, 01:47:18 PM »
Perhaps it would help if Archimid laid out his reasoning, preferably supported by facts and figures and even (one hopes) a peer-reviwed paper or two.

Archimid, please explain: Why do you think that a BOE will be such a cataclysmic catastrophe?

Perhaps we could try and put numbers on them a bit like the Richter logarythmic scale for earthquakes. As in "Trump elected president" is a 2 but "Trump goes to war with Iran" is a 3 (effectively a 10 times bigger catastrophy, but mankind will adjust fairly quickly and the effects will mostly be local).

So "continued AGW" is in my optics at least a 6 or 7 and tending upwards, the real risk being that we will reach 8 or more (still thinking in earthquake terms - a 9 is "at or near total destruction").

Which brings to mind the flat-earther thing. How can anybody claim that a single event, albeit important, that does not really change anything can be a bigger catastrophe than what has been happening all the time leading up to that event?

A bit like claiming that we won't get tired from hiking until we've reached that peak in the distance that may be 1 or 10 km away.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

TeaPotty

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 219
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 38
  • Likes Given: 71
Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #663 on: July 23, 2019, 01:54:55 PM »
Strange this hyperdenialism that seems to have gripped some people.

Global warming is already killing people and changing whole countries, being a significant factor in the ongoing war in Syria and the biggest risk to national security worldwide as has been comfirmed by, amongst others, the US Army.

The danger to global food production that global warming poses is huge, massive, scarily gigantic.

Denying this very real and present danger by clamoring about a purely hypothetical BOE Harmageddon is - denialism.

This is obnoxious. The current gradual loss of Arctic Sea Ice is linked to the significant changes in weather and rainfall patterns. It is precisely one of the mechanisms by which Climate Change is effecting us soonest.

Looking at Arctic Sea Ice volume charts, we are not far off from a mostly ice-free Arctic. Not sure why you are so eager to argue semantics and technicalities. You have no argument if you're trying to say this isn't happening to the Arctic Sea Ice, or that the consequences won't get worse as we lose more ice.

Again more simply... A nearly ice-free Arctic is likely to make the current changes to rainfall patterns even worse, and our technical definition of a BOE may be overly-conservative a measure. This is going to destabilize entire countries, and bring much human suffering.

Rich

  • Guest
Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #664 on: July 23, 2019, 02:03:00 PM »

Perhaps we could try and put numbers on them a bit like the Richter logarythmic scale for earthquakes. As in "Trump elected president" is a 2 but "Trump goes to war with Iran" is a 3 (effectively a 10 times bigger catastrophy......

FYI - Each point of the Richter Scale is not a 10X increase. It is logarithmic, but 2 points on the scale is 1000x. One point on the scale is the square root of that or roughly 31 4x.

Weird scale.

binntho

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1061
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 278
  • Likes Given: 75
Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #665 on: July 23, 2019, 02:13:44 PM »

Perhaps we could try and put numbers on them a bit like the Richter logarythmic scale for earthquakes. As in "Trump elected president" is a 2 but "Trump goes to war with Iran" is a 3 (effectively a 10 times bigger catastrophy......

FYI - Each point of the Richter Scale is not a 10X increase. It is logarithmic, but 2 points on the scale is 1000x. One point on the scale is the square root of that or roughly 31 4x.

Weird scale.
You are confusing the energy in each whole number (31.4x) and the wave amplitude (10x).
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

binntho

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1061
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 278
  • Likes Given: 75
Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #666 on: July 23, 2019, 02:14:51 PM »
Strange this hyperdenialism that seems to have gripped some people.

Global warming is already killing people and changing whole countries, being a significant factor in the ongoing war in Syria and the biggest risk to national security worldwide as has been comfirmed by, amongst others, the US Army.

The danger to global food production that global warming poses is huge, massive, scarily gigantic.

Denying this very real and present danger by clamoring about a purely hypothetical BOE Harmageddon is - denialism.

This is obnoxious. The current gradual loss of Arctic Sea Ice is linked to the significant changes in weather and rainfall patterns. It is precisely one of the mechanisms by which Climate Change is effecting us soonest.

Looking at Arctic Sea Ice volume charts, we are not far off from a mostly ice-free Arctic. Not sure why you are so eager to argue semantics and technicalities. You have no argument if you're trying to say this isn't happening to the Arctic Sea Ice, or that the consequences won't get worse as we lose more ice.

Again more simply... A nearly ice-free Arctic is likely to make the current changes to rainfall patterns even worse, and our technical definition of a BOE may be overly-conservative a measure. This is going to destabilize entire countries, and bring much human suffering.
Exactly. We seem to be in total agreement. Strange that you find that obnoxious.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

Archimid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2374
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 290
  • Likes Given: 184
Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #667 on: July 23, 2019, 02:46:58 PM »
Quote
Perhaps it would help if Archimid laid out his reasoning, preferably supported by facts and figures and even (one hopes) a peer-reviewed paper or two.

Ok so who has the burden of proof? The one that's making an extraordinary claim.

Quote
Archimid, please explain: Why do you think that a BOE will be such a cataclysmic catastrophe?

I promise I will, but first the burden of proof is on you to prove it won't be a cataclysm. It is an extraordinary claim that no ice on the Arctic does not lead to cataclysm. It is only the assumption of human permanence that gives you the impression that a cataclysm is not likely. The most basic physics dictate that cataclysm is the most likely outcome. What makes you think that such a large scale and sudden change in planetary heat distribution will not have huge impact?

Quote
How can anybody claim that a single event, albeit important, that does not really change anything can be a bigger catastrophe than what has been happening all the time leading up to that event?

You think having no ice over the arctic in September does not really change anything?  How can I possibly take that seriously?

I'm sorry but I'm debating absurdities product of fear psychology, not logic or science.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

crandles

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2512
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 94
  • Likes Given: 47
Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #668 on: July 23, 2019, 02:49:43 PM »
Perhaps it would help if Archimid laid out his reasoning, preferably supported by facts and figures and even (one hopes) a peer-reviwed paper or two.

Archimid, please explain: Why do you think that a BOE will be such a cataclysmic catastrophe?

Agree that might be useful. (Haven't seen him do so, so far.)

You are arguing that the climate conditions are bad, partly because the missing ice, but then you argue that if you remove all the ice it doesn't get worse. It doesn't even make sense.

Interesting that you do include the word 'partly'. Would you care to explain how you apportion blame for perhaps rainfall changes (or some other measure), between:

1. Losses of sea ice so far
2. Losses of sea ice around point where we get a BOE for a week or so.
3. Heating of Arctic ocean after a BOE

Noting that Arctic is less than 10% of area of globe in a region where air is generally falling so very little responsibility for moisture in the atmosphere particularly in places where lots of people live and grow food.

4. Warming of the other 90% of world's atmosphere allowing more water to be held in the atmosphere, creating likelihood of heavier rainfall and more droughts.

If you are attributing more effects to 1 than to 4, perhaps you could explain why?

binntho

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1061
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 278
  • Likes Given: 75
Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #669 on: July 23, 2019, 03:01:36 PM »
Ok so who has the burden of proof? The one that's making an extraordinary claim.
Yours is obviously the bigger claim.

Quote
It is an extraordinary claim that no ice on the Arctic does not lead to cataclysm.
And a claim that I for one would not like to make. My claim is: Losing the ice is cataclysmic, but the milestone of having lost it makes no difference.
Quote
It is only the assumption of human permanence that gives you the impression that a cataclysm is not likely.
I think a cataclysm is very likely. And the trigger won't be a non-event called BOE.
Quote
What makes you think that such a large scale and sudden change in planetary heat distribution will not have huge impact?
So you think that BOE, when it happens, will cause "sudden change in planetary heat distribution". Interesting. Any peer-reviewed papers to support this? I assume that by "sudden" you are talking about a year or two, not decades or centuries?
Quote
You think having no ice over the arctic in September does not really change anything?
Of course it will change things. But a catastrophe bigger than  the ongoing AGW? Of course not.
Quote
I'm sorry but I'm debating absurdities product of fear psychology, not logic or science.
Interesting, coming from someone who thinks the world works like a Clive Cussler novel, but seems unable show evidence for why it should be so.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

Sam

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 130
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 101
  • Likes Given: 15
Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #670 on: July 23, 2019, 03:43:20 PM »
We have been through this. And we have been through this exhaustively.

The ideas are simple.

1) the models we have are largely based on the quasi steady state conditions that man evolved under, and specifically the last two centuries of data. They are not great for predicting the precise effects of transition to a new state in conditions we have never observed. Translation: Real world... the models dramatically under predict the speed and consequences of the transition. Real world... the models fail to fully incorporate key aspects of the actually quite straght forward thermodynamics. Earth's climate is a heat engine. Remove the cold pole and the heat engine dies. With that the atmospheric and oceanic driving forces either die or are greatly altered - rapidly...  Real world... no model yet has been able to adequately model the known paleoclimatic conditions of the equable climate system that results.  But we do know what that looks like. And it is radically different from the state know now. We also know that a rapid transition from one to the other is fatal for most creatures on earth. The PETM involved a different though similar transition and serves as one of our best unserstood exemplars. Real world... the IPCC has grossly under estimated the speed and severity of the transition to our great peril, and simultaneously painted roses cheeks on how hard it is to prevent this transition. It is now long since too late.

2) the prove it to me, and until you do it isn't true, argument is a loser. That's not how things work. Sadly it all too often is how humans work, with tragic consequences.

As to papers...  here is a non-representative sample of a few to highlight both some of the issues and the extent of time we've known these things. These do not form a complete argument. They are only examples. For full citations, check the papers.

Nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of Arctic sea ice
https://www.pnas.org/content/106/1/28
https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/106/1/28.full.pdf

A Numerical Study of Sea Ice and Ocean Circulation in the Arctic
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0485%281987%29017%3C1077%3AANSOSL%3E2.0.CO%3B2?download=true

Future abrupt reductions in the summer Arctic sea ice
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2006GL028024

Some results from a time‐dependent thermodynamic model of sea ice
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/JC076i006p01550

Fast Response of the Tropics to an Abrupt Loss of Arctic Sea Ice via Ocean Dynamics
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018GL077325

So, what can we glean from these handfull of citations?

1) the transition is chaotic and non linear with massive impacts on oceanic and atmospheric circulation
2) the transition is abrupt, though non-linearities soften that slightly. The first day, week or month of BOE isn't likely to cause the collapse. But, it won't take much more than that to cause an abrupt state transition in both the atmospheric and oceanic circulation with cataclysmic impact on the Earth's biota, fauna, and us. The transition is likely to take about 3-8 years. And with the beginning imminent in 3-8 years itself, that puts us ~11 years +/- ~6 years from that transition to a radically different system. Those are my guesstimates.
3) the consequences of that rapid transition quickly flow through the Earth's oceans, atmosphere, and biosphere with effects in the tropics in ~25 years. So ~36 years +/- ~ a decade from now. That is an absolute blink in geologic time.
4) we are in deep trouble. If you aren't terrified you aren't paying attention, or you just don't care, or you are in fear and simple blind denial. Take your pick.

Sam

Archimid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2374
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 290
  • Likes Given: 184
Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #671 on: July 23, 2019, 04:05:43 PM »
Ok so who has the burden of proof? The one that's making an extraordinary claim.
Yours is obviously the bigger claim.


Nope. Your claim goes opposite to the natural progression from order to disorder. It only seems to be an extraordinary claim because of the scary nature of the claim. Scientifically speaking, taking into account conservation of energy, the solar constant, the thermodynamic nature of the atmosphere and the freezing point of water, enthalpy of fusion ect. The expectation should be a fundamentally different planet.


But this is the climate. It is a multi scale process were the apparent physics can be counter intuitive.

So what evidence do you all have that cancel out the expected physics of a BOE?

Crandles can you post that model that you always post were the ice was removed several times and it always returned? I want to revisit that paper, again. Why did the ice returned in their model? I need to know.

I need to know how the warming was canceled out in that study. That study must be proven wrong so that scientist can no longer hide their heads in the sand using that study as justification. Alternatively, I see the mechanism that cancels out the cataclysmic effects of a BOE, I'm proven the fool we all believe I am but I can sleep easier.

I invite everyone to post papers and models that remove the ice. For some reason I have a hard time finding them. I know there is the one crandles always post (Tiesche?) and I believe it was Ken Feldman posted a really wonderful paper where they removed the ice in a water world( no continents) and it returned too. Would love to revisit that one too.

I'm honestly not sure if it is my head stopping me from finding them or the heads of scientists stopping them from talking about this. Let's check how their assumptions have held up. Shut me up. If you all do that I promise I'll be very nice in my reply and will stick strictly to the science and data.

If I can't find anything wrong with their assumptions I promise I shut up about this unless new and very convincing evidence crops up.

Go ASIF.

( Just read Sam's post, where he comes through before even asking. Posting anyways hoping for more models, papers and points of view. really. Go ASIF)
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

pleun

  • New ice
  • Posts: 34
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 9
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #672 on: July 23, 2019, 04:34:47 PM »
First, you need to agree on the definition of a BOE. especially with regard to the timeframe.

dnem

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 320
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 119
  • Likes Given: 53
Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #673 on: July 23, 2019, 04:54:31 PM »
If I had to guess, I think Sam is about right.  We are within a handful of years from a state change in the arctic and that state change will cause a state change in northern hemisphere circulation that will be highly disruptive to ecosystems and human civilization.  This is a GUESS.  It could be a year or two (I doubt it Archimid), or could be a few decades.  Almost everyone here on the ASIF is in broad agreement that the arctic is in a death spiral.  We differ on the timing by a few decades - significant to our individual lives, but meaningless in geological time.

I've said this multiple times: a late season dip below 1 mil km followed by a decent refreeze is important but not cataclysmic by any stretch.  A deep and early BOE from which the arctic cannot recover, leading to a failed refreeze will be a cataclysm. 


crandles

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2512
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 94
  • Likes Given: 47
Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #674 on: July 23, 2019, 05:19:46 PM »
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2007GL030253
D. Schröder  W. M. Connolley
Impact of instantaneous sea ice removal in a coupled general circulation model

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2010GL045698
Tietsche et al 2011
Recovery mechanisms of Arctic summer sea ice

They don't cancel out the heat, it is naturally lost to space during the next fall/winter. What do you expect when there is no ice to act as insulator?

Tietsche model stats with extent about 7 million km^2 in September in the 1980s so that is not far off, perhaps a little on the low side. In the 2000s about 5m km^2 again it is still a little on the low side

Water temp anomaly near 0 every winter:

Image 2:


The 2020‐ensemble mean of the difference in sea surface temperature (ΔSST) and surface air temperatures (ΔSAT) between the experiment and the reference run averaged over the Arctic Ocean domain. The dashed lines indicate the natural variability of the reference run, given by the standard deviation of September temperature in the 2020–2030 decade.


Quote
We first consider anomalies in surface air temperature (SAT) and sea surface temperature (SST), because they are directly linked to the anomalies in sea‐ice cover (Figure 2). At the sea surface, shortwave heating leads to a strong warming in the first summer of the experiment, and in the course of summer this temperature anomaly is mixed to an average depth of 50 m (see auxiliary material). However, the temperature anomaly does not penetrate deeper, and no excess heat is stored below the surface mixed layer. The water temperature in the uppermost ocean layer (12 m deep) shows a pronounced warming anomaly of 2.7 K, whereas the average temperature of the upper 50 m in the ocean rises by 1.3 K. We note that the magnitude of the ocean temperature anomaly is mainly due to the absence of melting ice that provides a latent heat sink. Without this effect, the surface heat flux anomaly would only warm the upper 50 m by 0.3 K.

[17] The SST anomaly only lasts until November; by then sufficient heat has been extracted from the surface water to cool it to the freezing temperature.
« Last Edit: July 23, 2019, 05:46:45 PM by crandles »

oren

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4484
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 875
  • Likes Given: 1287
Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #675 on: July 23, 2019, 05:37:35 PM »
First, you need to agree on the definition of a BOE. especially with regard to the timeframe.
This.
Archimid, there is a big difference between a totally ice-free arctic in August, or July, and the classic definition of a BOE - 1M km2 ice area on September 20th. Yet your arguments seem to borrow from all these BOEs together, while I think it's safe to assume the first BOE will be the late September kind. Will the CAB suddenly grow warm once the phase change energy is not used up in melting? No, there will still be lots of ice in it. Will all the ice the year after be FYI? No, 1M km2 will be MYI. And so on. You must be more precise.
Most here know that an ice-free Arctic will cause lots of havoc, but many realize there is a continuum of ice-free and a continuum of havoc. Adverse effects are already happening and will happen more and more as we approach the first BOE, and will increase even further as we get more BOEs with less ice and earlier in the season.
I recommend letting the matter rest a while. The thread is becoming unreadable, and in any case this whole discussion would belong in the "climatic effects of a BOE" rather than in this one.

Ken Feldman

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 757
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 79
  • Likes Given: 100
Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #676 on: July 23, 2019, 05:53:19 PM »
Quote
Perhaps it would help if Archimid laid out his reasoning, preferably supported by facts and figures and even (one hopes) a peer-reviewed paper or two.

Ok so who has the burden of proof? The one that's making an extraordinary claim.

Quote
Archimid, please explain: Why do you think that a BOE will be such a cataclysmic catastrophe?

I promise I will, but first the burden of proof is on you to prove it won't be a cataclysm. It is an extraordinary claim that no ice on the Arctic does not lead to cataclysm. It is only the assumption of human permanence that gives you the impression that a cataclysm is not likely. The most basic physics dictate that cataclysm is the most likely outcome. What makes you think that such a large scale and sudden change in planetary heat distribution will not have huge impact?

Quote
How can anybody claim that a single event, albeit important, that does not really change anything can be a bigger catastrophe than what has been happening all the time leading up to that event?

You think having no ice over the arctic in September does not really change anything?  How can I possibly take that seriously?

I'm sorry but I'm debating absurdities product of fear psychology, not logic or science.

In the last interglacial, temperatures in the Arctic were much higher than today, and the world didn't end.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5575311/

Quote
The last time that Arctic temperatures were significantly higher than today was the Early Holocene Thermal Maximum9, 10. The Holocene, however, is an interglacial cycle not concluded yet. This certainly justifies climatic evaluations of older, concluded warm interglacial cycles such as the last interglacial (LIG), i.e., Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e (Eemian), lasting from about 130 to 115 ka and often proposed as a possible analog for our near-future climatic conditions on Earth11, 12. Based on proxy records from ice, terrestrial and marine archives, the LIG is characterized by an atmospheric CO2 concentration of about 290 ppm, i.e., similar to the pre-industrial (PI) value13, mean air temperatures in Northeast Siberia that were about 9 °C higher than today14, air temperatures above the Greenland NEEM ice core site of about 8 ± 4 °C above the mean of the past millennium15, North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures of about 2 °C higher than the modern (PI) temperatures12, 16, and a global sea level 5–9 m above the present sea level17

The UNFCC treaty signed in 1992 has the goal of keeping temperature increases below 2 degrees C globally.  This treaty also established the IPCC which produces scientific assessments of the effects of climate change.  The IPCC published an updated assessment in 2018 which reviews the impacts of an increase of 1.5C vs 2C.

https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_final.pdf

Quote
Human activities are estimated to have caused approximately 1.0°C of global warming5 above
pre-industrial levels, with a likely range of 0.8°C to 1.2°C. Global warming is likely to reach 1.5°C
between 2030 and 2052 if it continues to increase at the current rate. (high confidence) (Figure
SPM.1) {1.2}

Quote
Anthropogenic emissions (including greenhouse gases, aerosols and their precursors) up to the present are unlikely to
cause further warming of more than 0.5°C over the next two to three decades (high confidence) or on a century time scale
(medium confidence). {1.2.4, Figure 1.5}

Quote
There is high confidence that the probability of a sea ice-free Arctic Ocean during summer is substantially lower at global
warming of 1.5°C when compared to 2°C. With 1.5°C of global warming, one sea ice-free Arctic summer is projected per
century. This likelihood is increased to at least one per decade with 2°C global warming. Effects of a temperature overshoot
are reversible for Arctic sea ice cover on decadal time scales (high confidence). {3.3.8, 3.4.4.7}

That's what the science supports.  You're the one making the extraordinary claims, so you need to come up with the peer reviewed science to support those claims.

pleun

  • New ice
  • Posts: 34
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 9
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #677 on: July 23, 2019, 06:00:31 PM »

In the last interglacial, temperatures in the Arctic were much higher than today, and the world didn't end.


The world won't end. Just the humans and most species on it...

TeaPotty

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 219
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 38
  • Likes Given: 71
Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #678 on: July 23, 2019, 06:09:01 PM »
<snip; N.>
« Last Edit: July 27, 2019, 01:05:58 PM by Neven »

Ken Feldman

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 757
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 79
  • Likes Given: 100
Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #679 on: July 23, 2019, 06:18:04 PM »

In the last interglacial, temperatures in the Arctic were much higher than today, and the world didn't end.


The world won't end. Just the humans and most species on it...

So you clearly didn't read the IPCC report that I linked to.

TeaPotty

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 219
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 38
  • Likes Given: 71
Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #680 on: July 23, 2019, 06:25:04 PM »

In the last interglacial, temperatures in the Arctic were much higher than today, and the world didn't end.


The world won't end. Just the humans and most species on it...

So you clearly didn't read the IPCC report that I linked to.

You obviously dont care & won’t be around for the consequences, Boomer.
Why don’t you spend your remaining years  enjoying life instead of writing posts online putting down the generations that have to live through and clean up your mess.

Seriously, if you’re a Boomer, and think things aren’t or won’t be so bad, nobody really cares what you have to say, bc u likely have strong sociopathic and narcissistic tendencies like most of ur generation; more concerned with monetary losses than human life.
« Last Edit: July 23, 2019, 06:30:10 PM by TeaPotty »

Tor Bejnar

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3057
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 369
  • Likes Given: 189
Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #681 on: July 23, 2019, 06:25:32 PM »
I also think Sam's numbered comments has it about right.

We know something about parts of the Arctic that are largely ice-free which used to be mostly ice-covered (e.g., Bering being ice-free almost year-round a couple years, or Beaufort seasonally).  Areas that are far removed from the current perennially ice-covered areas give us some clues as to what will happen in the central CAB when it becomes seasonally ice-free.  The water heating up in some areas has virtually no interaction with late-season ice, for example, so we have some actual data.  Sea water looses a great deal of heat during the Arctic winter; there may be some year-to-year 'memory', but not a lot of it (yet).  Delayed freezing causes a little less ice growth, but charts show that thicker ice is the bigger damper on further ice growth, not time.

So far, we have not observed the total destruction of the halocline (maybe some?) anywhere.  Therefore, I would not expect its destruction after the first BOE.  At some point, yes, but not right away.

North Greenland will still be ice-covered after the first several (hundred) BOEs.  Will it have a damping affect on the Arctic that will make some types of changes less extreme?

I contend the climate disasters humanity is experiencing are AGW-caused, and they will get worse as CO2e increases.  Reduced Arctic ice cover (both area percentage and days/year ice-free), increased ocean acidification, and land use/abuse (deforestation, rice paddies, etc.) are among other elements that will amplify CO2e-caused climate disruption.  The first BOE (by any definition) will not be a trigger for any global transition, unless, maybe, the first BOE occurs in July (giving 3-months of new conditions, but even then, the BO event won't be the trigger, but the 3 months of added heat or open water will be).  The transitions are happening before our eyes and are coming faster and faster.  A BOE, just like 400 ppm CO2, is a statistic that points towards the Hell we are creating.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

crandles

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2512
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 94
  • Likes Given: 47
Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #682 on: July 23, 2019, 06:29:39 PM »
You truly disgust me and other normal non-academics I know.

Experts attempting to share knowledge is disgusting???? takes all sorts I suppose.

Archimid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2374
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 290
  • Likes Given: 184
Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #683 on: July 23, 2019, 06:30:42 PM »
Quote
In the last interglacial, temperatures in the Arctic were much higher than today, and the world didn't end.

This is an extremely important point.

 How long did it take for the eemian to go from thick ice to no ice? Probably millennia, or else there wouldn't be palm trees and hippo's.  Eemian warming was very similar to the holocene warming. Species migrated north over thousands of generations, no biggie because it all happened nice and slowly at the natural pace.

This time around, there will be no such adaptation of the natural world because the warming is happening too fast, at an unnatural pace, dictated by human influence.

Quote
That's what the science supports

Sorry but no, that's what the consensus of the IPCC supports. The science tells a different story.  The eemian took a long time to happen, AGW is happening in a geological instant.

Ken, I'm willing to change my mind, but I need specific arctic mechanism that will counter act the albedo feedback, lack of ice and heat intrusions from the wobbly atmosphere.

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

pleun

  • New ice
  • Posts: 34
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 9
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #684 on: July 23, 2019, 06:32:20 PM »

In the last interglacial, temperatures in the Arctic were much higher than today, and the world didn't end.


The world won't end. Just the humans and most species on it...

So you clearly didn't read the IPCC report that I linked to.

I must confess I did not, because I have more faith in my own gut instinct and common sense.

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3970
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 422
  • Likes Given: 49
Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #685 on: July 23, 2019, 06:32:27 PM »
The problem is that we don't have good models to have reliable predictions when a BoE will happen and what the effect of a BoE will be.

Will there be feedback mechanism kicking in, 'restoring' the ice?


Huh?

TeaPotty

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 219
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 38
  • Likes Given: 71
Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #686 on: July 23, 2019, 06:33:30 PM »
You truly disgust me and other normal non-academics I know.

Experts attempting to share knowledge is disgusting???? takes all sorts I suppose.

Being an academic doesn’t automatically make you an expert. The hubris you people feel entitled to though, lol.

Also, lots of ganging up on this thread accusing Archimid’s shared argument as not based on facts, and lots of academics jumping on the bandwagon bc he doesn’t speak in Academic lingo, even if they don’t necessarily disagree. Aka, Tribalism.
« Last Edit: July 23, 2019, 06:53:10 PM by TeaPotty »

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3970
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 422
  • Likes Given: 49
Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #687 on: July 23, 2019, 06:35:43 PM »
A quick scan of this thread reveals a whole lot of vitriol and personal attacks and while individuals are furiously typing their vicious response, a lot of hasty and I think mistaken statements are being typed. We would all benefit from a more cautious, thoughtful exchange of ideas.

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3970
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 422
  • Likes Given: 49
Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #688 on: July 23, 2019, 06:45:12 PM »
One point i missed and i'm not knowledgeable enough to talk details, is that the amount of energy to melt ice is huge and once there is no ice to melt all that energy will go into the ocean and distributed back to the air later in the season, including humidity that will isolate against heat loss further. I lack the terms and i lack the numbers but i know that is that way.

You are describing a process that is already in place as the summer ice has slowly declined with increasingly low minimums and heat uptake. The Arctic is becoming wetter and warmer and finally arriving at our 1st BOE (an arbitrary line drawn by humans) is just one more step on the continuum to an unmitigated disaster.

Archimid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2374
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 290
  • Likes Given: 184
Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #689 on: July 23, 2019, 06:51:45 PM »
First, you need to agree on the definition of a BOE. especially with regard to the timeframe.

Very important indeed. I define a BOE as was once defined by another ASIFer ( sadly I can't remember who said it, he deserves the credit). A BOE is when Surface temperature N80 depart near freezing temperatures during the melting season.  That will happen when there is not enough ice to maintain typical arctic temperatures over most of the arctic.

A BOE is not the same as ice free arctic where the ocean is still cold and there is ice on top of it, just very little of it.

This distinction is important because the "virtually ice free arctic" will behave very different during the Arctic night. In the virtually ice free arctic, the freezing season begins near freezing temperature and the arctic is seeded with ice. Growth will be extremely vigorous and not too late in the season and there will be multiyear ice for the next year.

Also the atmospheric effect of a warm arctic ocean after a true BOE are different.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3970
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 422
  • Likes Given: 49
Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #690 on: July 23, 2019, 07:04:23 PM »
You think having no ice over the arctic in September does not really change anything?


What many are saying here is that having a minimum at 4 million km2 changed everything significantly and that a 3 million km2 minimum will change things even more and that a 2 million km2 will further the damage just as a sub 1 million km2 minimum will do. (Feel free to substitute area or volume to the above sentence if you prefer.) We should all agree that we are on an accelerating slide toward oblivion.

Someone (I'm not sure who.) decided to define a BOE as less than 1 million km2 of extent. If they had instead defined it as zero ice would you still be arguing that arriving at the BOE was somehow substantively different than reaching the 1 million km2 level?

binntho

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1061
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 278
  • Likes Given: 75
Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #691 on: July 23, 2019, 07:12:40 PM »
Ok, the fog is lifting slightly ... according to Sam, what will happen following BOE is an extremely abrupt switch to an equitable climate. That would certainly be totally devastating to all life on earth, but is not really based on any science.

The Arctic has been ice free in summer before, in the last Interglacial (~120.000 years ago), probably at the height of the Holocene maximum (~8.000 years ago) and of course before the current Ice Age (before ~3 million years in the Arctic).

Given that interglacials have been getting colder over the last 2 million years, I'd guess that there have been at the very least 15 - 20 BOEs over that period (while we were crawling down from the trees and starting to play with fire). And no equitable climate in any of these interglacials.

So we have lots of BOEs in the past without a rapid switch (or any switch) to an equitable climate.

And we have (presumed) switches to equitable climate without BOE, in the Cretaceous and early Paleogene. Nobody knows how quickly these changes happened, it could have been a few tens of thousands of years, not 36 years as Sam likes to imagine.

I also like Archimid's definition of BOE, i.e. when the DMI temperature graph north of 80 starts to "lift off", i.e. depart from neer freezing temperatures during the melting season.

But that does not in any way imply that there will be a total cataclysmic catastrophical Harmageddon the next year (or 36 years later), as Sam's failure to argue his case demonstrates quite well.

(PS I see that others write Armageddon in stead of Harmageddon. The word is derived from Har Megiddo in Hebrew, i.e. the mountains above Megiddo in the north of ancient Palestine. The Via Maris ran through a pass in these mountains, and whenever the Egyptians wanted to have a bash at whoever was controlling Syria at the time, they would meet up and slug it out in this pass. Or so I've been told).
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3970
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 422
  • Likes Given: 49
Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #692 on: July 23, 2019, 07:18:11 PM »
If you aren't terrified you aren't paying attention, or you just don't care, or you are in fear and simple blind denial. Take your pick.

Sam

Few here are not terrified by the rapidly approaching cataclysm. Those few who seem not to be (easy to identify) are here for their own purposes. As regards to your suggestion that we are approaching an abrupt transition, I would suggest we have already entered into this abrupt transition and arriving at 1 million km2 of ice is of no consequence. We are approaching an equable climate. It will be disastrous. The increasingly broken PV is evidence of this as is the increase in SSW's and the wild and crazy weather popping up across the planet driven by the slowing jet stream.

A BOE as currently defined is simply a point in time on this dreadful slide and likely irreversible within human time frames. We were warned. The time to act aggressively was 1980. We have done nothing in the ensuing 4 decades and will continue to do nothing for at least 2 more decades. Our fate is sealed.
« Last Edit: July 23, 2019, 07:23:39 PM by Shared Humanity »

ritter

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 541
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #693 on: July 23, 2019, 07:27:57 PM »
I also think Sam's numbered comments has it about right.

We know something about parts of the Arctic that are largely ice-free which used to be mostly ice-covered (e.g., Bering being ice-free almost year-round a couple years, or Beaufort seasonally).  Areas that are far removed from the current perennially ice-covered areas give us some clues as to what will happen in the central CAB when it becomes seasonally ice-free.  The water heating up in some areas has virtually no interaction with late-season ice, for example, so we have some actual data.  Sea water looses a great deal of heat during the Arctic winter; there may be some year-to-year 'memory', but not a lot of it (yet).  Delayed freezing causes a little less ice growth, but charts show that thicker ice is the bigger damper on further ice growth, not time.

So far, we have not observed the total destruction of the halocline (maybe some?) anywhere.  Therefore, I would not expect its destruction after the first BOE.  At some point, yes, but not right away.

North Greenland will still be ice-covered after the first several (hundred) BOEs.  Will it have a damping affect on the Arctic that will make some types of changes less extreme?

I contend the climate disasters humanity is experiencing are AGW-caused, and they will get worse as CO2e increases.  Reduced Arctic ice cover (both area percentage and days/year ice-free), increased ocean acidification, and land use/abuse (deforestation, rice paddies, etc.) are among other elements that will amplify CO2e-caused climate disruption.  The first BOE (by any definition) will not be a trigger for any global transition, unless, maybe, the first BOE occurs in July (giving 3-months of new conditions, but even then, the BO event won't be the trigger, but the 3 months of added heat or open water will be).  The transitions are happening before our eyes and are coming faster and faster.  A BOE, just like 400 ppm CO2, is a statistic that points towards the Hell we are creating.

Agreed and +1 on Sam's list. Much of the specifics discussed here are beyond my understanding but, as a generalist who dabbles on the fringes on a lot of different fields of science, I can see that the trend is bad, bad, bad. The BOE event is just that, a line that we will cross and, most likely, sooner than models have predicted.

Nobody really knows what will happen once the BOE line is crossed. We are certain we're entering a climate homo sapiens have never experienced and most certainly didn't evolve under. It is most unfortunate that we will drag the rest of life on Earth through the gates of hell with us. One can say this is hysterical, but it is no less true.

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3970
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 422
  • Likes Given: 49
Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #694 on: July 23, 2019, 07:39:14 PM »
The UNFCC treaty signed in 1992 has the goal of keeping temperature increases below 2 degrees C globally.  This treaty also established the IPCC which produces scientific assessments of the effects of climate change.  The IPCC published an updated assessment in 2018 which reviews the impacts of an increase of 1.5C vs 2C.

I only quoted this one piece as your comment was quite long and, I might add, packed with useful info. I would encourage everyone to go back and read it so as to understand my response.

I am not here to refute what is said in the IPCC report. While I believe they error on the side of caution, this conservatism is not due to some subtle agenda but rather due to the method used to generate the report. It requires a consensus of all of the contributors, all of them far brighter and informed than me.

My objection to your post is grounded in one simple fact. We simply will not hold warming to 2C. This same IPCC report stated that we need to reduce global warming emissions 45% by 2030 and be carbon neutral by 2050 in order to avoid warming beyond 2C. Our BAU behavior virtually guarantees a 4C warmer world by 2100. This temperature increase has been described as incompatible with human civilization.

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3970
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 422
  • Likes Given: 49
Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #695 on: July 23, 2019, 07:41:22 PM »
The smugness and passive-agreesive bullying in this thread shows exactly why the public thinks so lowly of academics. You truly are some of the saddest and most insular bootlickers in modern society. Past scientists would look down on you in shame.

You are not better than us.
You are not smarter than us.
Many of you are emotionaly immature, lacking human relationships.
Many of you are overly-pampered brats who truly believe you are superior.

Bullying non-academics by arguing semantics and using nonsensical IPCC estimates won’t change what actual math and Science shows us. Neither will it change how we will remember your “tribe” as one of the leading advocates driving our climate crisis, who accept whatever the 1% do, as long as it’s done politely.

You truly disgust me and other normal non-academics I know.

There are more useful responses to the information that Ken has posted.

nanning

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 922
  • 0Kg CO2, 35 KWh/wk,130L H2O/wk, No heating
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 138
  • Likes Given: 6067
Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #696 on: July 23, 2019, 07:41:35 PM »
So far, we have not observed the total destruction of the halocline (maybe some?) anywhere.
Hi Tor, doesn't 'atlantification' destroy the halocline?

Quote
North Greenland will still be ice-covered after the first several (hundred) BOEs.
I think there may, after say 300 years, still be ice but it won't be ice covered. We're now only at ca. +1C. With artificial aerosols. Don't you think some positive feedbacks will kick in? 'Faster than expected'?
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
   Simple: minimize your possessions and be free and kind    It's just a mindset.       Refugees welcome

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3970
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 422
  • Likes Given: 49
Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #697 on: July 23, 2019, 07:43:13 PM »
I also think Sam's numbered comments has it about right.

I agree. Best comment on the page IMHO. The links take you to research that should be a must read for all of us.
« Last Edit: July 23, 2019, 07:58:09 PM by Shared Humanity »

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3970
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 422
  • Likes Given: 49
Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #698 on: July 23, 2019, 07:48:53 PM »

In the last interglacial, temperatures in the Arctic were much higher than today, and the world didn't end.


The world won't end. Just the humans and most species on it...

So you clearly didn't read the IPCC report that I linked to.

I must confess I did not, because I have more faith in my own gut instinct and common sense.

So does Trump but that does not make it the correct approach. Reading what Ken posted is useful and an informed discussion is far more useful as well.

(I am not comparing you to Trump. I would not compare anyone to the child rapist without having first hand knowledge of that person.)

pleun

  • New ice
  • Posts: 34
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 9
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #699 on: July 23, 2019, 08:07:26 PM »
After reading some of the IPCC reports I think it is the correct approach, it just so happens that Trump has no common sense...