That 1st BOE will actually only occur if we combine a disastrous freeze season with the perfect melt season. This is why I visit this site daily all year long.
For me the question is...
What are the characteristics of the disastrous freeze season which will then set up the perfect melt season?
I think, while not every melting season is bad for the ice, almost every one of the last 3 freezing seasons have been very bad, bad enough to allow for a new record melt or record minimum, given the melting season's gonna shake hands with the preceding freezing seasons.
The last 5 freezing season's are all in the top 6 all-time from the he standpoint of lowest maxima.
This is similar to the phenomena where we see nightime low temperatures breaking far more heat records than daytime temperatures.
The reasons are similar. At night and during the Arctic winter, the signature impact of GHG's predominates. That signature impact is the trapping / retention of outgoing infrared radiation.
From a messaging standpoint, this should be the headline event for those trying to demonstrate that AGW is progressing and getting worse. It's clear and simple cause and effect that deniers have a harder time to refute.
Unfortunately, human beings prefer the drama and mythology of the big event and we place more emphasis on the yearly minimum and BOE which are much more a function of weather whims.
We need to understand our propensity to look for collapse porn in the way of things like a BOE and realize it's poor messaging to create hype around things that are rarely happening.
To philopek's comment on the main thread. I don't think I know what is going to happen this year and I am one of the people actually rooting for a record as a way to attract attention.
I merely think it is very unenlightened to place any emphasis whatsoever on record minimums and BOE's. There's no obvious upside to that when we can see the maximum predictably and reliably shrinking.
It's a tall order. Minimums make headlines and collapse porn appeals to base levels of human nature.
It also appeals to deniers who can say that alarmists keep pointing to the records and BOE's that don't materialize.
The unpopular message that I'm trying to get through is that we're practicing a lot of alarmism in ASIF. If may be fun and exciting, but it's not effective.