Arctic Ocean Changes

[Cid_Yama]

Arctic Warming Hotspot in the Northern Barents Sea Linked to Declining Sea Ice Import

Ignore the black box that pops up in the corner.  This is a link to the full paper.  This is hot off the presses, just published.


How a Wayward Arctic Current Could Cool the Climate in Europe

Couldn't find a good place for these, so started a new thread.

[jacksmith4tx]

Thanks for this.
Having read several papers on the global fishing industry I am watching how this affects the plankton-zooplankton relationship. The real core issue of climate change is not temperatures and severe weather. It's what the bottom of the food chain does in response to the evolving chemical ratios in the air, water and soil.

[jdallen]

Arctic Warming Hotspot in the Northern Barents Sea Linked to Declining Sea Ice Import

Ignore the black box that pops up in the corner.  This is a link to the full paper.  This is hot off the presses, just published.


How a Wayward Arctic Current Could Cool the Climate in Europe

Couldn't find a good place for these, so started a new thread.

CID!  Thank you for finding this and starting the tread!  As jacksmith4tx points out, on top of the implications for weather, we are seeing an entire sea ecology change in a finger snap!  The implications of this are huge!

[gerontocrat]

The bit in the Yale article I like is:-

Speaking about the possibility of a gyre-driven surge of cold water temporarily altering the climate of the North Atlantic, NASA’s Petty says, “It’s not going to be a scene from `The Day After Tomorrow,’ [the film in which the earth’s climate radically cools]. But the fact is we just don’t know. There just isn’t enough Arctic data out there to make firm predictions in a world where climate change, ocean currents, and atmospheric forces interact in complex ways.”

We just don't know.

[RikW]

so maybe it will be like the day after tomorrow 

There is so much we don't know yet about how climate/nature works

[jdallen]

so maybe it will be like the day after tomorrow 

There is so much we don't know yet about how climate/nature works

We know enough that we can say the "day after tomorrow" scenario is pure nonsense.

We can be fairly certain of reaching an Equable climate based on what we've seen in the fossil record from the Pliocene.  400-410PPM CO2 produced summer SST's which probably ran near 15C at the pole.  We can still expect that, even with changes in ocean circulation caused by continental drift.

The change from multi-cell to single cell atmospheric circulation will totally change the northern hemisphere.  Whether the same thing will happen in the south is not yet certain.  We also know the transition will be unstable, and will provide us with far more extremes (cold and hot) as we're starting to see now.  Eventually at least in the NH, we will see an end to sea ice outside of continental margins in winter (cold continent/warm ocean) with attendant weather.  Hopefully we can forestall that to save the GIS, but that may be a long shot.  If not, hopefully we can slow the melt so it isn't too disruptive to life. 

But make no mistake, unless we can pull CO2 out of the atmosphere, we will have a year-round blue water arctic within 2 centuries.

[FishOutofWater]

I wrote at Dailykos about the build up of fresh water and the impacts of its sudden release in December, 2016.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/12/13/1610344/-Huge-20-Year-Build-up-of-Arctic-Fresh-Water-May-Flood-North-Atlantic-Stall-Gulf-Stream

The great salinity anomaly in the early 1970s was apparently caused by the sudden release of fresh water built up in the Arctic. It affected the weather in Europe and north America and something like it could happen again.

[johnm33]

Once again we see a surge of melt as the tides force more ATL water into Barents/Arctic, if as I suspect currents are largely residuals of tides we are witnessing an ever stronger current establishing itself in the Arctic.
2018 new/full moon a,[pril] 16n:30f. m,15n:29f. j,13n:28f. j,13n27f.
interesting that 2015 was almost a mirror image a,04f:18n. m,04f:18n. j,02f:16n. j,02f:16n:31f.
 The surges just about show up in the graphs Jaxa when it's up is better, you can close in on the graph, but it shows in nsidc too. i think.
 With the tides and the high over Beaufort we may see an even greater flow through the nwp for a few days. Going forward the 11^th and 26^th then 9^th and 25^th are +/-dates to watch.