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The Walrus

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #500 on: July 31, 2020, 02:24:31 AM »
To survive long-term, polar bears need a good platform of sea ice from which to hunt seals. In short: no sea ice = no polar bears.[/b][/i]
No argument here.  However, there is no indication that all thrice will be gone any time soon.

oren

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #501 on: July 31, 2020, 02:50:58 AM »
Great. So we have the article on one hand, and the claims of The Walrus on the other hand. Whom should I believe?
Would you care to list your points of contention with the article's assumptions? And explain how your claims are supported by data and science?

Full PDF:
https://www.arctictoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/PolarBearPersistence-Final-NCC-Study.pdf
« Last Edit: July 31, 2020, 03:05:53 AM by oren »

The Walrus

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #502 on: July 31, 2020, 04:38:07 AM »
I already did.  Why should I repeat myself?  Just read the previous posts.

oren

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #503 on: July 31, 2020, 06:22:26 AM »
Let me summarize your claims, copied from your posts above. My text is in bold:
* The article is "just a repeat of inaccurate information." Any specifics?
* Polar bear hibernation period decreases by 30% or more thanks to warmer winter temperatures. Polar bears do not hibernate. And where does this 30% number come from? Source?
* No decrease of polar bear numbers helps diffuse this kind of misinformation. Polar bear numbers have rebounded following bans and regulation of hunting. Regardless of that, the article makes calculations of future declines of bear populations, not of present declines, so this is irrelevant.
* Polar bears do much worse when there is more sea ice, as there is no place to hunt for seals. This is just flagrant misinformation. Polar bears do most of their hunting in winter. The seals have to breath and thus are to be found somewhere. According to Wikipedia, their preferred habitat is the annual sea ice covering the waters over the continental shelf and the Arctic inter-island archipelagos. These areas, known as the "Arctic ring of life", have high biological productivity in comparison to the deep waters of the high Arctic. The polar bear tends to frequent areas where sea ice meets water, such as polynyas and leads, to hunt the seals that make up most of its diet. Polar bears are able to produce water through the metabolism of fats found in seal blubber, and are therefore found primarily along the perimeter of the polar ice pack, rather than in the Polar Basin close to the North Pole where the density of seals is low. So as can be seen the bears follow the seal population. They hunt seals in breathing holes, seals resting on the ice, and raid the birth lairs that female seals create in the snow.
* When asked "Which assumptions do they make that are not supported by the data?" You respond by twisting some sentence from the article that says there cannot be any data linking low ice extremes with population declines because such extremes have not happened yet, therefore they made estimates of calories. But you do not list any wrong assumptions.
* When confronted with "bears do not hibernate" you admit it, but then explain about "waking hibernation", a state which does not exist, and which you confuse with denning which only applies to females with newborn cubs.
* As the winter temperature warms, less nutrition is required to maintain body temperature. This effect, if it exists, applies only to denning females. And does the effect exist? How strong is it? I guess we just have to take your word for it.
* Polar bears do not fatten up in winter, as the solid sea ice prevents hunting.  Rather, they catch seals in spring and early summer. when the ice begins to break up and seals emerge from their dens. This is unbelievable flagrant misinformation. Polar bears have their main hunting season in winter, again except for denning females. Seals have breathing holes or they die.
* I am not sure than anyone truly knows how much ice is optimal.  We do know that no ice or all ice makes seal hunting nearly impossible. This is in your imagination. There is no such thing as all ice, but if there were there would be no seals in that location. The bears follow seal populations and can hunt them in >90% ice concentrations.
* Since the bears are known to travel large distances for food and are not territorial, the theory is that they will simply move to optimal hunting grounds. Specific bears are not territorial but the subpopulations display seasonal fidelity to particular areas, though DNA studies show that they are not reproductively isolated. In addition, the individuals in a subpopulation tend to reuse the same denning areas each year.
* Speculation is that Greenland and the Canadian archipelago would be the top choice, as ice remains there year-round, and melting could open up more water holes.  The issue would then become how many bears the area could support. If the area can support more polar bears, why aren't there more polar bears there now? As Wikipedia says, the relationship between ringed seals and polar bears is so close that the abundance of ringed seals in some areas appears to regulate the density of polar bears, while polar bear predation in turn regulates density and reproductive success of ringed seals. But in any case the study estimates most regional subpopulations will disappear, you suddenly seem to agree with it.

To summarize, you are sowing misinformation while accusing scientific studies of misinformation. It has taken me over an hour to go over your claims and read up on the subject. The innocent reader may take you word for it, not knowing your history on the forum and especially considering that you filled up the thread with your posts on the subject, thus achieving local numerical superiority. I think this has gone far enough.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_bear
https://arctickingdom.com/its-polar-bear-week-profiling-their-seasonal-habits-challenges/

blumenkraft

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #504 on: July 31, 2020, 07:58:07 AM »
Quote
Brandolini's law, also known as the bullshit asymmetry principle, is an internet adage which emphasizes the difficulty of debunking bullshit: "The amount of energy needed to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude bigger than to produce it."

Link >> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brandolini%27s_law

We have this a lot here. I wish we wouldn't have this.

Walrus, i have homework for you. Read this:

On Bullshit is a 2005 book (originally a 1986 essay) by philosopher Harry G. Frankfurt which presents a theory of bullshit that defines the concept and analyzes the applications of bullshit in the context of communication. Frankfurt determines that bullshit is speech intended to persuade without regard for truth. The liar cares about the truth and attempts to hide it; the bullshitter doesn't care if what they say is true or false, but rather only cares whether their listener is persuaded.

Free to read here >> http://www2.csudh.edu/ccauthen/576f12/frankfurt__harry_-_on_bullshit.pdf

sidd

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #505 on: July 31, 2020, 08:50:27 AM »

The Walrus

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #506 on: July 31, 2020, 02:32:50 PM »
Oren,
Yes, the polar bear population increased significantly after the 1973 hunting ban.  Most predictions are based on current trends.  The current trend for the polar bear population has been stable at around 25,000 since the 1980s.

https://www.sctimes.com/story/opinion/2019/12/27/despite-public-perception-polar-bear-population-stable/2738256001/

The polar bear main hunting season is not in winter.  Talk about misinformation.  Perhaps you need to search beyond Wikipedia.

https://polarbearscience.com/2018/07/03/spring-feeding-for-polar-bears-is-over-sea-ice-levels-are-now-largely-irrelevant/

Thick ice conditions in the late winter and early spring have been clearly documented has being much more detrimental to polar bear populations than the decline of summer ice.

https://polarbearscience.com/2013/07/04/great-polar-bear-red-herring-in-the-southern-beaufort/

Yes, these conditions of all ice, resulting in no seals for the bear to dine upon.  This was not my imagination.

There are more polar bears in the Canadian archipelago now.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/polar-bears-migrate-to-canadian-arctic-for-longer-lasting-ice-study-1.2900256

https://www.alaskapublic.org/2015/01/07/canadian-archipelago-likely-to-become-important-polar-bear-conservation-region/

Predictions of future polar bear declines are just as you state - predictions of future decline.  This has been repeated for decades as always future declines, but never materialize in the present.

The Walrus

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #507 on: July 31, 2020, 03:05:31 PM »
Quote
Brandolini's law, also known as the bullshit asymmetry principle, is an internet adage which emphasizes the difficulty of debunking bullshit: "The amount of energy needed to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude bigger than to produce it."

Link >> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brandolini%27s_law

We have this a lot here. I wish we wouldn't have this.

Walrus, i have homework for you. Read this:

On Bullshit is a 2005 book (originally a 1986 essay) by philosopher Harry G. Frankfurt which presents a theory of bullshit that defines the concept and analyzes the applications of bullshit in the context of communication. Frankfurt determines that bullshit is speech intended to persuade without regard for truth. The liar cares about the truth and attempts to hide it; the bullshitter doesn't care if what they say is true or false, but rather only cares whether their listener is persuaded.

Free to read here >> http://www2.csudh.edu/ccauthen/576f12/frankfurt__harry_-_on_bullshit.pdf

Yes.  I am trying to counter the bullshit presented by some.  It is obvious that some are trying to persuade others with their posts or references to others that do likewise.

The Walrus

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #508 on: July 31, 2020, 06:29:43 PM »
Great. So we have the article on one hand, and the claims of The Walrus on the other hand. Whom should I believe?
Would you care to list your points of contention with the article's assumptions? And explain how your claims are supported by data and science?

Full PDF:
https://www.arctictoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/PolarBearPersistence-Final-NCC-Study.pdf

Oren,

Directly from the paper, adult bear starvation does not increase until 200 days of fasting for males and 225 days for females (dropping to 110 days for full lactating females).  No days were listed for cubs, except to say it was less than adults.  One of the more precarious areas for the polar bears is Western Hudson Bay, which has been most affect by rising temperatures and sea ice decline.  In the 1980sm before the commencement of sea ice decline, the bears averaged a 107-day fast.  In the early 2000s, that increased to 130 days, due to earlier breakup of sea ice.  Ice-free days in Hudson Bay have changed appreciably since.  Even in this most vulnerable area, polar starvation is not an issue.

https://polarbearsinternational.org/news/article-polar-bears/feast-or-fast/

vox_mundi

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #509 on: July 31, 2020, 08:28:12 PM »
Quote from: Walrus
...  In the 1980sm before the commencement of sea ice decline, the bears averaged a 107-day fast.  In the early 2000s, that increased to 130 days, due to earlier breakup of sea ice.  Ice-free days in Hudson Bay have changed appreciably since.  Even in this most vulnerable area, polar starvation is not an issue [Implied - currently].

 ... Walrus, your strawman argument with implied rebuttal has absolutely nothing to do with the conclusions of the paper.

The paper addresses future intersection of trends ...

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0818-9

Abstract: ... Here, we establish the likely nature, timing and order of future demographic impacts by estimating the threshold numbers of days that polar bears can fast before cub recruitment and/or adult survival are impacted and decline rapidly. Intersecting these fasting impact thresholds with projected numbers of ice-free days, estimated from a large ensemble of an Earth system model4, reveals when demographic impacts will likely occur in different subpopulations across the Arctic. Our model captures demographic trends observed during 1979–2016, showing that recruitment and survival impact thresholds may already have been exceeded in some subpopulations. It also suggests that, with high greenhouse gas emissions, steeply declining reproduction and survival will jeopardize the persistence of all but a few high-Arctic subpopulations by 2100. Moderate emissions mitigation prolongs persistence but is unlikely to prevent some subpopulation extirpations within this century.









Food-web

Ice-adapted algae grow on the underside of the ice, which krill feed upon. Arctic cod and other fish species eat the krill, which are in turn consumed by ringed seals, the most abundant seal in the Arctic and the primary prey of polar bears. If one link in this cycle is broken, the entire marine food chain is at risk.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

kinbote

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #510 on: July 31, 2020, 09:02:48 PM »
One obvious advantage of scientific studies vs opinion pieces is the former can discuss the subject comprehensively and with nuance. Pointing to vague predictions (made by whom, in what context, what timelines, with what criteria, etc?) about the imminent decline of Polar Bears and saying they haven't happened yet, therefore they are all wrong, strikes me as deliberately disingenuous.

Also of some note, the website "polarbearscience.com" and author Susan Crockford, has ties to The Heartland Institute and the Global Warming Policy Foundation, and was rebutted in a BioScience study "Internet Blogs, Polar Bears, and Climate-Change Denial by Proxy"

https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article/68/4/281/4644513

Pimm and Harvey (2000) provided three criteria with which to evaluate the credibility of scientific studies. First and most importantly, follow the data. They emphasized that the data trails of skeptics generally go cold very quickly. Second, follow the money. Some of the most prominent AGW deniers, including Crockford, are linked with or receive support from organizations that downplay AGW (e.g., Dr. Crockford has previously been paid for report writing by the Heartland Institute). Third, follow the credentials. As we have illustrated here, scientists such as Crockford who are described as “experts” on denier blogs in fact typically have little in the way of relevant expertise, and their expertise is often self-manufactured to serve alternative agendas.

blumenkraft

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #511 on: July 31, 2020, 09:22:37 PM »
Also of some note, the website "polarbearscience.com" and author Susan Crockford, has ties to The Heartland Institute and the Global Warming Policy Foundation

Hah, what's up with that, eh Walrus?

Thanks for making that connection, Kinbote.

The Walrus

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #512 on: July 31, 2020, 10:06:34 PM »
Vox,
It is neither a straw man nor has it nothing to do with the paper.  Their claim is based entirely on the number of fasting days.  The current number of fasting days is nowhere near their proclaimed threshold level for starvation.  Hence, it is entirely relevant.  Especially when one considers that an increase in summer fasting days is accompanied by a decrease in winter fasting days.

Interesting how some will believe an article written by a geophysicist, who is an expert in mountains, over one written by a zoologists, who is an expert in polar bears.  I guess the saying that a man believes what he wants to believe and disregards the rest still holds.

oren

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #513 on: July 31, 2020, 11:07:30 PM »
Well well, polarbearscience.com.
At least now I know what denier blogs you read. Or at least one of them.

vox_mundi

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #514 on: August 01, 2020, 08:21:24 AM »
US: Snake River Dams Will Not Be Removed to Save Salmon
https://phys.org/news/2020-07-snake-river-salmon.html

The U.S. government announced Friday that four huge dams on the Snake River in Washington state will not be removed to help endangered salmon migrate to the ocean.

"The federal failure to remove the dams despite clear supporting science is a disaster for our endangered salmon and orcas," said Sophia Ressler of the Center for Biological Diversity.

Scientists warn that southern resident orcas are starving to death because of a dearth of chinook salmon that are their primary food source. The Pacific Northwest population of orcas—also called killer whales—was placed on the endangered species list in 2005.

Three Republican members of Congress from Washington state hailed the decision.

... the dams have proven disastrous for salmon that hatch in freshwater streams, then make their way hundreds of miles to the ocean, where they spend years before finding their way back to mate, lay eggs and die.

Snake River sockeye were the first species in the Columbia River Basin listed under the Endangered Species Act in 1991. Now, 13 salmon runs are listed as federally endangered or threatened. Four of those runs return to the Snake River.

The Columbia River system dams cut off more than half of salmon spawning and rearing habitat, and many wild salmon runs in the region have 2% or less of their historic populations, according to the Center for Biological Diversity.

On the way to the ocean, juvenile salmon can get chewed up in the dams' turbines.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

bluice

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #515 on: August 01, 2020, 08:40:04 AM »
I guess the saying that a man believes what he wants to believe and disregards the rest still holds.
What he wants or when his salary depends on it. Which way is it for you?

The Walrus

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #516 on: August 01, 2020, 02:46:09 PM »
I guess the saying that a man believes what he wants to believe and disregards the rest still holds.
What he wants or when his salary depends on it. Which way is it for you?
Neither.  I try to look at it from all sides, and decide which is most valid.

KiwiGriff

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #517 on: August 01, 2020, 04:00:20 PM »
Quote
I try to look at it from all sides, and decide which is most valid.
“You are entitled to your opinion. But you are not entitled to your own facts.”

― Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Polar bear science is about   as valid referencing  WUWT or Tony Hella .
You don't need me or anyone else to point out its nonsense all it needs  is  critical thinking and a little time researching your source.
Have a look at her blog it is full of  circular references to her own unpublished work and  her  books for sale not  published peer reviewed  papers. 
Here is the list of  references on her blog.
https://polarbearscience.com/about-2/
Feel free to  find a single peer reviewed paper in a reputable scientific journal on modern polar bear ecology she has published .

This exploitation of polar bears by the  climate denial echo chambers has been explored in depth.
 
Internet Blogs, Polar Bears, and Climate-Change Denial by Proxy
Jeffrey A Harvey, Daphne van den Berg, Jacintha Ellers, Remko Kampen, Thomas W Crowther, Peter Roessingh, Bart Verheggen, Rascha J M Nuijten, Eric Post, Stephan Lewandowsky ...
BioScience, Volume 68, Issue 4, April 2018, Pages 281–287, https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/bix133
Published: 29 November 2017

excerpt.
Quote
Approximately 80% of the denier blogs cited here referred to one particular denier blog, Polar Bear Science, by Susan Crockford, as their primary source of discussion and debate on the status of polar bears. Notably, as of this writing, Crockford has neither conducted any original research nor published any articles in the peer-reviewed literature on the effects of sea ice on the population dynamics of polar bears. However, she has published notes and “briefings” through a conservative think tank, the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF), and is described by them as “an expert on polar bear evolution.” Similarly, the Heartland Institute, another conservative think tank that downplays AGW, describes her as “one of the world's foremost experts on polar bears.” Prominent among blogs giving Crockford's blog disproportionate attention are WUWT and CD, suggesting that her blog reaches a large audience.
For a contrast to Susan  Crockford.
Google the co authors of the linked paper Steven Amstrup, Ian Stirling and Eric Post they are actual world experts on arctic ecology and polar bears . 
 
Animals can be driven crazy by placing too many in too small a pen. Homo sapiens is the only animal that voluntarily does this to himself.
Notebooks of Lazarus Long.
Robert Heinlein.

The Walrus

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #518 on: August 01, 2020, 05:14:30 PM »
And yet no one has been able to refute the “facts” that I presented, with the possible exception of the controversial term “walking hibernation.”  I use the term facts loosely, as conclusions may change as new research is conducted. 

kassy

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #519 on: August 01, 2020, 05:14:56 PM »
Neither.  I try to look at it from all sides, and decide which is most valid.
After fitting it to your beliefs.

If we go back to the article you can critique methodology or choice of climate scenarios aka actually discussing it. Or you go and drag up some generic ´The Arctic Panda is fine stuff´in #486.

To survive long-term, polar bears need a good platform of sea ice from which to hunt seals. In short: no sea ice = no polar bears.[/b][/i]
No argument here.  However, there is no indication that all thrice will be gone any time soon.

The article discusses up to the 2100 time frame so how do we interpret no indication that all the ice will be gone any time soon´ over that time frame?
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The Walrus

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #520 on: August 01, 2020, 06:23:09 PM »
I would not call that soon, and I question any extrapolation that significantly exceeds the timeframe and constraints of the research.

<It´s not a buffet. They actually discuss that time frame. kassy>

« Last Edit: August 01, 2020, 09:21:19 PM by kassy »

kassy

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #521 on: August 03, 2020, 10:26:28 AM »
Sharks almost gone from many reefs

A massive global study of the world's reefs has found sharks are 'functionally extinct' on nearly one in five of the reefs surveyed.

Professor Colin Simpfendorfer from James Cook University in Australia was one of the scientists who took part in the study, published today in Nature by the Global FinPrint organisation. He said of the 371 reefs surveyed in 58 countries, sharks were rarely seen on close to 20 percent of those reefs.

"This doesn't mean there are never any sharks on these reefs, but what it does mean is that they are 'functionally extinct' -- they are not playing their normal role in the ecosystem," said Professor Simpfendorfer.

He said almost no sharks were detected on any of the 69 reefs of six nations: the Dominican Republic, the French West Indies, Kenya, Vietnam, the Windward Dutch Antilles and Qatar.

"In these countries, only three sharks were observed during more than 800 survey hours," said Professor Simpfendorfer.

...

"We found that robust shark populations can exist alongside people when those people have the will, the means, and a plan to take conservation action," said Dr Chapman.

Professor Simpfendorfer said it was encouraging that Australia was among the best nations at protecting shark populations and ensuring they played their proper role in the environment.

"We're up there along with such nations as the Federated States of Micronesia, French Polynesia and the US. These nations reflect key attributes that were found to be associated with higher populations of sharks: being generally well-governed, and either banning all shark fishing or having strong, science-based management limiting how many sharks can be caught," he said.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/07/200722112647.htm
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vox_mundi

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #522 on: August 04, 2020, 12:42:58 AM »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #523 on: August 04, 2020, 01:44:40 AM »
IIRC, polar bears are the only predator that hunts humans.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

vox_mundi

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #524 on: August 04, 2020, 03:00:20 AM »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #525 on: August 04, 2020, 05:42:58 AM »
Human-eaters
Quote
Crocodile attacks on people are common in places where crocodiles are native. The saltwater and Nile crocodiles are responsible for more attacks and more deaths than any other wild predator that attacks humans for food.
So when it really warms up in the Arctic, if the Polar Bears haven't eaten all of us, the crocs will.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

dnem

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #526 on: August 04, 2020, 01:40:03 PM »
IIRC, polar bears are the only predator that hunts humans.

Mountain lions (Puma concolor) in the US are known to occasionally track humans over extended distances and attack.

Bruce Steele

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #527 on: August 04, 2020, 05:18:36 PM »
I have been tracked by a mountain lion.
 I know six other commercial divers who have been bitten by a great white shark. Only one died because they hunt humans but don’t eat them. Pigs kill and eat humans. Hippos kill lots of humans. Grizzly bears eat humans. So no polar bears are not the only human predator. Not getting into Lex Luther.
 If you took away our guns there would be plenty of predators willing to eat us.

I always used sodium laurel sulfate as a shark deterrent. Soaked a sponge in VO5, put it in a plastic bag with ventilation holes and carried it in a special pocket on my wetsuit.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1023/A:1007612002903

Liquid courage.
« Last Edit: August 05, 2020, 01:26:05 AM by Bruce Steele »

gerontocrat

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #528 on: September 05, 2020, 08:25:14 PM »
This paper says that life on earth is really looking at mass extinction, and we are taliking about rates of species loss increasing by several orders of magnitude.

This paper says that the correlation between species extinction and human population is very, very high, and dates back to many thousands of years ago.

https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/36/eabb2313
The past and future human impact on mammalian diversity
Quote
Abstract
To understand the current biodiversity crisis, it is crucial to determine how humans have affected biodiversity in the past. However, the extent of human involvement in species extinctions from the Late Pleistocene onward remains contentious. Here, we apply Bayesian models to the fossil record to estimate how mammalian extinction rates have changed over the past 126,000 years, inferring specific times of rate increases. We specifically test the hypothesis of human-caused extinctions by using posterior predictive methods.

We find that human population size is able to predict past extinctions with 96% accuracy. Predictors based on past climate, in contrast, perform no better than expected by chance, suggesting that climate had a negligible impact on global mammal extinctions. Based on current trends, we predict for the near future a rate escalation of unprecedented magnitude. Our results provide a comprehensive assessment of the human impact on past and predicted future extinctions of mammals.


Fig. 1 Different time periods of diversity decline and extinction rate increases between areas and orders.
The plots show the declining diversity (black lines, 100 modeled extinction dates for each species) and the magnitude of extinction rate increases relative to the starting rate (red lines, mean values) through time, for all spatial (A to H) and two examples of taxonomic subsets (I to J) analyzed in this study.


Fig. 2 Higher model adequacy for human correlation model compared to climate model.
The displayed models can be grouped into correlation models (A to C) in which extinction rates are estimated as a function of time continuous predictors and a rate-shift model (D) with a distinct and limited number of rate changes, estimated solely from the extinction dates dataset. The applied correlation variables were global human population density (A) and global mean temperature (B), as well as the interaction of the two in a mixed model (C). ......
The accuracy scores in the bottom of the lower panels reflect how accurately the respective model predicted past extinctions,....

Explaining a complex biological process such as extinctions with a single predictor, such as human population density, is arguably a great oversimplification and therefore is not expected to explain all of the past extinction dynamics. However, our results show that human population density has substantial predictive power over the process, probably because it is correlated with other anthropogenic factors such as more intensive hunting pressure, land use, ecosystem modifications, e.g., through the use of fire, and several cascading effects that result from human impact on the natural world.


Conclusions
Our analysis of the extinction record and previous studies (5, 6, 11) provide compelling evidence that humans have caused a substantial wave of extinction upon arrival on new landmasses for mammalian communities that were not adapted to large primates as efficient predators. Since then, we have increased our impact on the natural world, which, in the past centuries, has reached unprecedented scales to satisfy our increasing energy and resource usage in all parts of the world (36). We are losing biodiversity every year, and with every extinct species and population, we lose unique evolutionary history.

By the year 2100, we predict all areas of the world to have entered a second wave of extinctions. Our simulation results indicate that this additional wave of anthropogenic extinctions may be much greater than the currently increased rates, by several orders of magnitude We find that Australia and the Caribbean in particular have already today entered the second extinction wave  based on the extinctions that have occurred during the past decades. This shows that, although our predicted future rates and associated biodiversity losses are shockingly high, they are within a realistic range, since we can already see these future scenarios being manifested in parts of the world.


EDIT: ADDENDUM


Fig. 4 Expected increases in extinction rates for most orders and areas. (attached)
In structure equivalent to Fig. 3, the violin plots (A to T) show the 95% HPD interval density of estimated extinction rates in the year 2100 based on the different diversity prediction scenarios. The IUCN rates (red) were estimated from simulated future extinctions based on the IUCN threat status of species in each subset. These extinction rate predictions are consistently higher than the present rates (PR) estimated from recent extinctions (yellow). For several spatial subsets (B,C,E,F, and H) we predict rate increases based solely on human population size increases (HU, green). Rates were estimated applying a shift model as implemented in PyRate. The multimodality of some rate distributions reflects the model uncertainty of the applied shift model.
« Last Edit: September 05, 2020, 09:05:35 PM by gerontocrat »
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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #529 on: September 06, 2020, 09:12:57 AM »
Thanks for post that gerontocrat!
That's a very important scientific research imo.


"Based on current trends, we predict for the near future a rate escalation of unprecedented magnitude"

That's what I feared would be happening  :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'(
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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #530 on: September 06, 2020, 05:25:13 PM »
This shows that, although our predicted future rates and associated biodiversity losses are shockingly high, they are within a realistic range, since we can already see these future scenarios being manifested in parts of the world.

What a statement. Good lord. Thanks for posting that paper Gerontocrat. Great read. Depressing, but great.

Also, the term "extinction debt". The authors state it is substantial for class Mammalia. There may not be a descriptor word large enough/with enough weight to describe the extinction debt for all of kingdom Animalia. It must be gargantuan.
« Last Edit: September 06, 2020, 05:34:31 PM by Ktb »
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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #531 on: September 10, 2020, 10:21:28 AM »
World Wildlife Plummets More Than Two-Thirds In 50 Years: Index
https://phys.org/news/2020-09-world-wildlife-plummets-two-thirds-years.html

Global animal, bird and fish populations have plummeted more than two-thirds in less than 50 years due to rampant over-consumption, experts said Thursday in a stark warning to save nature in order to save ourselves.

Human activity has severely degraded three quarters of all land and 40 percent of Earth's oceans, and our quickening destruction of nature is likely to have untold consequences on our health and livelihoods.

The Living Planet Index, which tracks more than 4,000 species of vertebrates, warned that increasing deforestation and agricultural expansion were the key drivers behind a 68 percent average decline in populations between 1970 and 2016.

"It's an accelerating decrease that we've been monitoring for 30 years and it continues to go in the wrong direction," WWF International director general Marco Lambertini said.

"In 2016 we documented a 60 percent decline, now we have a 70 percent decline..

... The index showed that the tropical regions of Central and South America had seen a 94 percent fall in species since 1970.

... "From being sad about losing nature, people are beginning to actually get worried," he said.

"All this is in a blink of an eye compared to the millions of years that many species have been living on the planet," Lambertini added



Repot: https://livingplanet.panda.org/en-us/
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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #532 on: September 10, 2020, 10:31:37 AM »
Cedric Ringenbach was invited on BFM TV to talk about the different consequences of global warming.
"The decreases in agricultural yields linked to climate change on a +5° trajectory (current trajectory) over the century mean that there will be room on Earth for only 1 billion humans. So the question is: do you want your children to be part of that 1 billion?"
(posted by Joëlle Leconte)

it's in french sorry

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #533 on: September 10, 2020, 01:56:39 PM »
Meanwhile, the 2020 Living Planet Index 2020 report is out. Humans destruction of life on earth continues to accelerate.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/sep/10/humans-exploiting-and-destroying-nature-on-unprecedented-scale-report-aoe
Humans exploiting and destroying nature on unprecedented scale – report
Quote
On average, global populations of mammals, birds, fish, amphibians and reptiles plunged by 68% between 1970 and 2016, according to the WWF and Zoological Society of London (ZSL)’s biennial Living Planet Report 2020. Two years ago, the figure stood at 60%.

https://www.wwf.org.uk/sites/default/files/2020-09/LPR20_Full_report.pdf
Quote
The global Living Planet Index continues to decline. It shows an
average 68% decrease in population sizes of mammals, birds,
amphibians, reptiles and fish between 1970 and 2016. A 94%
decline in the LPI for the tropical subregions of the Americas is the
largest fall observed in any part of the world.


Those inclined to depression should not read the report.
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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #534 on: September 15, 2020, 01:13:20 AM »
I have amazing news for you. Man is not alone on this planet. He is part of a community, upon which he depends absolutely.
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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #535 on: September 15, 2020, 01:50:03 PM »
Hundreds of thousands of migratory birds have been found dead in New Mexico

(CNN)Biologists at New Mexico State University are trying to find out why hundreds of thousands of migratory birds have been found dead across the state.

The mystery started August 20 with the discovery of a large number of dead birds at the US Army White Sands Missile Range and White Sands National Monument, according to Martha Desmond, a professor at the university's department of fish, wildlife and conservation ecology.

What was first believed to be an isolated incident turned out to be a much more serious problem when hundreds more dead birds were found in regions across the state. including Doña Ana County, Jemez Pueblo, Roswell and Socorro.

"It's just terrible," Desmond told CNN. "The number is in the six figures. Just by looking at the scope of what we're seeing, we know this is a very large event, hundreds of thousands and maybe even millions of dead birds, and we're looking at the higher end of that."

Dead migratory birds -- which include species such as warblers, bluebirds, sparrows, blackbirds, the western wood pewee and flycatchers -- are also being found in Colorado, Texas and Mexico.

...

Residents and biologists reported seeing birds acting strangely before they died. For example, birds that are normally seen in shrubs and trees have been spotted on the ground looking for food and chasing bugs.

Many were lethargic and unresponsive so they were getting hit by cars, Desmond said, in numbers "larger than ever seen before."

On the missile range golf course, swallows, which are aerial insectivores that don't even walk, were sitting on the ground and letting people approach them, she added.

Possible reasons

One of the factors biologists believe may have contributed to the deaths of the birds is the wildfires burning in California and other Western states, which may have forced the birds into early migration before they were ready.
´
"Birds who migrated before they were ready because of the weather might have not had enough fat to survive," Desmond said. "Some birds might have not even had the reserves to start migrating so they died in place."

...

"We began seeing isolated mortalities in August, so something else has been going on aside the weather events and we don't know what it is. So that in itself is really troubling," she added.

...

"This is devastating. Climate charge is playing a role in this." Desmond said. "We lost 3 billion birds in the US since 1970 and we've also seen a tremendous decline in insects, so an event like this is terrifying to these populations and it's devastating to see."

https://us.cnn.com/2020/09/14/us/new-mexico-birds-died-migration-trnd/index.html
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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #536 on: September 15, 2020, 05:40:31 PM »
World Missing All Targets to Save Nature, UN Warns
https://phys.org/news/2020-09-world-nature.html
https://www.unep-wcmc.org/news/outlook-for-biodiversity-depends-on-transformative-change

Countries are set to miss all of the targets they set themselves a decade ago to preserve nature and save Earth's vital biodiversity, the United Nations said Tuesday.

Humanity's impact on the natural world over the last five decades has been nothing short of cataclysmic: since 1970 close to 70 percent of wild animals, birds and fish have vanished, according to a WWF assessment this month.

Last year the UN's panel on biodiversity, called IPBES, warned that one million species face extinction as man-made activity has already severely degraded three quarters of land on Earth.

In 2010, 190 member states of the UN's Convention on Biological Diversity committed to a battle plan to limit the damage inflicted on the natural world by 2020.

But in its latest Global Biodiversity Outlook (GBO-5), released Tuesday, the UN said not one of these 20 goals would be met.

Quote
... "We are currently, in a systematic manner, exterminating all non-human living beings"

- Anne Larigauderie - IPBES Executive Secretary

... "We have to recognise that we're in a planetary emergency," ... "It's not just that species will die out, but also that ecosystems will be too damaged to meet society's needs."

... among the dangers to nature detailed in the report was the continued prevalence of fossil fuel subsidies, which the authors estimated at about $500 billion annually.

David Cooper, the lead author of the GBO assessment, said there were segments of society with "vested interests" preventing governments from reducing support to polluting industry.

"(Subsidies) are harmful to biodiversity and in most cases in the aggregate harmful economically and socially," he told AFP.

Report: Global Biodiversity Outlook 5 (GBO-5): https://www.cbd.int/gbo/gbo5/publication/gbo-5-en.pdf
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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #537 on: September 15, 2020, 07:27:39 PM »
Thanks vox.
That is one hell of a report! :'(
Mind-boggling consequences for the (near-) future of humans and all other life.
Likely forgotten in a month by policy makers and the public. Am I pessimistic here?
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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #538 on: September 16, 2020, 01:58:14 AM »
And we will miss the AICHI 2030 targets as well. The main goal is "30 by 2030" or 30% of land and 30% of marine placed under conservation status by the year 2030. It ain't gonna happen. And so Gaia cries.
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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #539 on: September 16, 2020, 02:56:32 AM »
I really did not need to read that Vox, but I knew all along it was true. The evidence just keeps piling up. While still mourning the rapid deterioration of the Yukon River salmon runs, today we learn that a protected (federally listed as endangered), caribou herd in a national park in Canada has been extirpated because park managers value tourism revenue over preserving endangered species.
We do not deserve this beautiful planet.
https://www.rmotoday.com/lake-louise/jasper-caribou-herd-wiped-out-of-existence-2713961

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #540 on: September 18, 2020, 06:29:46 PM »
For decades David Attenborough delighted millions with tales of life on Earth. But now the broadcaster wants us to face up to the state of the planet
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/sep/18/dont-look-away-now-are-viewers-finally-ready-for-the-truth-about-nature-aoe
  by Patrick Greenfield

&

(51m44)
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vox_mundi

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #541 on: September 25, 2020, 08:21:55 PM »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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vox_mundi

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #542 on: September 30, 2020, 07:03:25 AM »

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-54344309

Two-fifths of the world's plants are at risk of extinction, scientists have warned.

The scientists estimate that the extinction risk may be much higher than previously thought, with an estimated 140,000, or 39.4%, of vascular plants estimated to be threatened with extinction, compared with 21% in 2016.

Researchers say they are racing against time to name and describe new species, before they disappear.

https://www.kew.org/sites/default/files/2020-09/Kew%20State%20of%20the%20Worlds%20Plants%20and%20Fungi.pdf
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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #543 on: October 10, 2020, 11:17:21 AM »
'Real and imminent' extinction risk to whales

More than 350 scientists and conservationists from 40 countries have signed a letter calling for global action to protect whales, dolphins and porpoises from extinction.

They say more than half of all species are of conservation concern, with two on the "knife-edge" of extinction.

Lack of action over polluted and over-exploited seas means that many will be declared extinct within our lifetimes, the letter says.

...

Growing threats
"Save the whales" was a familiar green slogan in the 1970s and 1980s, part of a movement that helped bring an end to commercial whaling.

While stricken populations in most parts of the world have had a chance to recover from organised hunting, they are now facing myriad threats from human actions, including plastic pollution, loss of habitat and prey, climate change and collisions with ships.

By far the biggest threat is becoming accidently captured in fishing equipment and nets, which kills an estimated 300,000 whales, dolphins and porpoises a year.

....

They point to the decline of the North Atlantic right whale, of which only a few hundred individuals remain, and the vaquita, a porpoise found in the Gulf of California, which may be down to the last 10 of its kind.

And they say it is almost inevitable that these two species will follow the Chinese river dolphin down the path to extinction. The dolphin, also known as the baiji, was once a common sight in the Yangtze River but is now thought to have died out.

...

The scientists say that more than half of the 90 living species of whales, dolphins and porpoises, are of conservation concern, and the trend of acting "too little, too late" must end.

...

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-54485407
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gerontocrat

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #544 on: October 14, 2020, 08:57:37 PM »
Extracts from an essay by by Joëlle Gergis, an award-winning climate scientist and writer from the Australian National University.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/oct/15/the-great-unravelling-i-never-thought-id-live-to-see-the-horror-of-planetary-collapse

The great unravelling: 'I never thought I’d live to see the horror of planetary collapse'
Quote
Australia’s horror summer is the clearest signal yet that our planet’s climate is rapidly destabilising. It breaks my heart to watch the country I love irrevocably wounded because of our government’s denial of the severity of climate change and its refusal to act on the advice of the world’s leading scientists.

I mourn all the unique animals, plants and landscapes that are forever altered by the events of our Black Summer. That the Earth as we now know it will soon no longer exist. I grieve for the generations of children who will only ever experience the Great Barrier Reef or our ancient rainforests through photographs or David Attenborough’s documentaries. In the future, his films will be like watching grainy archival footage of the Tasmanian tiger: images of a lost world.....

...What concerns me is that we may have already pushed the planetary system past the point of no return. That we’ve unleashed a cascade of irreversible changes that have built such momentum that we can only watch as it unfolds.

We are being forced to come to terms with the fact that we are the generation that is likely to witness the destruction of our Earth. We have arrived at a point in human history that I think of as the “great unravelling”. I never thought I’d live to see the horror of planetary collapse unfolding.

As an Australian on the frontline of the climate crisis, all I can do is try to help people make sense of what the scientific community is observing in real time. I use my writing to send out distress beacons to the wider world, hoping that processing the enormity of our loss through an international lens will help us feel the sting of it. Perhaps, then, we will finally acknowledge the terribly sad reality that we are losing the battle to protect one of the most extraordinary parts of our planet......

While I hope this will be the summer that changes everything, my rational mind understands that governments like ours are willing to sacrifice our planetary life-support system to keep the fossil fuel industry alive for another handful of decades. I am afraid that we don’t have the heart or the courage to be moved by what we saw during our Black Summer.

.......I often despair that everything the scientific community is trying to do to help avert disaster is falling on deaf ears. Instead, we hear the federal government announcing policies ensuring the protection of fossil fuel industries, justifying pathetic emission targets that will doom Australia to an apocalyptic nightmare of a future.

.....Increasingly I am feeling overwhelmed and unsure about how I can best live my life in the face of the catastrophe that is now upon us. I’m anxious about the enormity of the scale of what needs to be done, afraid of what might be waiting in my inbox. Something inside me feels like it has snapped, as if some essential thread of hope has failed. The knowing that sometimes things can’t be saved, that the planet is dying, that we couldn’t get it together in time to save the irreplaceable. It feels as though we have reached the point in human history when all the trees in the global common are finally gone, our connection to the wisdom of our ancestors lost forever.

As a climate scientist at this troubled time in human history, my hope is that the life force of our Earth can hang on. That the personal and collective awakening we need to safeguard our planet arrives before even more is lost. That our hearts will lead us back to our shared humanity, strengthening our resolve to save ourselves and our imperilled world.
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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #545 on: October 29, 2020, 10:52:02 PM »
Isn't it nice to know that the destruction of life on earth is so well-funded?

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/28/banks-lent-1-9tn-linked-to-ecosystem-and-wildlife-destruction-in-2019-report-aoe
Banks lent $2.6tn linked to ecosystem and wildlife destruction in 2019 – report
Lack of policies regulating impact on natural world means finance industry effectively bankrolling biodiversity loss, analysis finds

The world’s banks must start to value nature and stop paying for its destruction

Quote
The world’s largest investment banks provided more than $2.6tn (£1.9tn) of financing linked to the destruction of ecosystems and wildlife last year, according to a new report.

Led by Wall Street giants Bank of America, Citigroup and JP Morgan Chase, 50 top investment banks provided financial services to sectors driving mass extinctions and biodiversity loss worth more than the GDP of Canada in 2019, the analysis found.

It argues that financial institutions are unable to monitor and measure the impact of their activities on the natural world because of limited policies on protecting ecosystems that are critical to human life and livelihoods when providing loans or underwriting services.

The findings in the Bankrolling Extinction report were produced by portfolio.earth, a new initiative led by finance, economics and environmental experts to better understand the role of the finance industry in the destruction of the natural world.

By matching financial services provided by investment banks to sectors identified by the UN as the primary drivers of biodiversity loss in 2019, experts identified $2.6tn of loans and underwriting services as being linked to mass extinctions and the collapse of life-sustaining ecosystems.

The sectors include food, forestry, mining, fossil fuels, infrastructure, tourism and transport and logistics sectors, all of which were identified as drivers of biodiversity loss by Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the UN’s scientific body on nature.

Sir Robert Watson, former chair of IPBES, said the task of rescuing nature must fall to the world’s finance industry, yet the vast majority of banks still remain unaware of their impacts on the natural world.

“Bank by bank, the report authors found a cavalier ignorance of – or indifference to – the implications, with the vast majority unaware of their biodiversity impacts, or associated balance sheet risks,” he said. “In short, this report is a frightening statement of the status quo.” Changing this mentality is a first priority to drive change, he added.

The top 10 banks with the biggest exposure to the risks associated with the destruction of the natural world include Bank of America, Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase, Mizuho Financial, Wells Fargo, BNP Paribas, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, HSBC, SMBC Group and Barclays. While not all of the $2.6tn identified will be driving biodiversity loss, the report says that banks do not have systems in place to monitor environmental harm.

Mizuho Financial and SMBC Group did not respond to the Guardian’s request for comment. Bank of America, Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase, HSBC and Barclays declined to comment. BNP Paribas also declined to comment, saying it was unable to check the accuracy of the report’s findings.

Wells Fargo declined to comment on the report but a spokesperson said its environmental and social risk management policy includes biodiversity considerations for customers working in critical habitats. A spokesperson from Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group said the company refers to internal criteria to assess the environmental impacts of sectors which could potentially affect biodiversity, such as forestry or mining.

The portfolio.earth initiative has called on banks to improve disclosures and reform how they assess possible environmental damage the financial services might support. Governments have been encouraged to hold banks liable for any damage their activities might cause, following the example of a Brazilian resolution that made rural credit financed by public banks dependent on lenders proving that they complied with environmental and other laws.

Since the 2016 Paris climate agreement, an increasing number of investment banks have implemented restrictions on coal, Arctic oil and gas, and tar sands extraction following pressure from environmental campaigners and investors. But analysis by Rainforest Action Network led by in March found 35 leading banks had funnelled more than £2.2tn ($2.66tn) into fossil fuels since the international agreement to limit greenhouse gas emissions and have not aligned themselves with goals of the accord.

Prof Kai Chan of the Institute of Resources, Environment and Sustainability at the University of British Columbia and leading author of the IPBES report, said: “A global sustainable economy sits at the centre of humanity’s much-needed transformation to meet the climate and ecological crises. And at the centre of that sit the banks and the finance institutions whose investments power development around the globe.

“Imagine a world in which projects can only raise capital when they have demonstrated that they will contribute meaningfully and positively to restoring the planet’s bounty and a safe climate for all? That’s the future this report envisions and builds toward.”

https://portfolio.earth/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Bankrolling-Extinction-Report.pdf
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vox_mundi

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #546 on: November 09, 2020, 06:26:06 PM »
COVID‑19 Spread Through Wastewater Could Devastate Some Marine Mammal Species
https://phys.org/news/2020-11-danger-deeps-covid19-wastewater-devastate.html

Certain species of whales, seals and other endangered marine mammals could fall victim to COVID-19 infection through wastewater and sewage that seeps into their marine habitats, researchers at Dalhousie say in a new study that has found some of the animals to be highly susceptible to the virus.

In a study published in Science of the Total Environment, the team describes how it used genomic mapping to determine which marine mammals would be vulnerable to SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. They looked at key amino acids that the virus binds to and found that there were striking similarities between those in humans and in several marine mammals, including dolphins, beluga whales, seals and sea otters.

The team found at least 15 marine mammal species were susceptible to infection from SARS-CoV-2 because of their ACE2 receptors—the critical protein required for the virus to enter and infect the cell.

Importantly, more than half of the species determined to be vulnerable to SARS-CoV-2 are already at risk globally.

The team predicts that the majority of whale, dolphin and porpoise species—18 out of 21—have the same or higher susceptibility to the virus as humans, while eight out of nine seal species are also predicted to be highly susceptible to SARS-CoV-2.

Studies have shown that SARS-CoV-2 is excreted in feces and can survive in water for up to 25 days, raising the possibility that wastewater provides a separate mode of spread for this coronavirus, as has happened in Spain, Italy and France where the virus was detected in untreated sewage.

Sabateeshan Mathavarajah et al. Pandemic danger to the deep: The risk of marine mammals contracting SARS-CoV-2 from wastewater, Science of The Total Environment (2020)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969720368777
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: The Holocene Extinction
« Reply #547 on: November 27, 2020, 05:04:56 PM »
Climate ‘Apocalypse’ Fears Stopping People Having Children – Study
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/nov/27/climate-apocalypse-fears-stopping-people-having-children-study

Survey of 600 people finds some parents regret having offspring for same reason

People worried about the climate crisis are deciding not to have children because of fears that their offspring would have to struggle through a climate apocalypse, according to the first academic study of the issue.

The researchers surveyed 600 people aged 27 to 45 who were already factoring climate concerns into their reproductive choices and found 96% were very or extremely concerned about the wellbeing of their potential future children in a climate-changed world. One 27-year-old woman said: “I feel like I can’t in good conscience bring a child into this world and force them to try and survive what may be apocalyptic conditions.”

The study indicated that climate-related fears for their children’s lives were rooted in a deeply pessimistic view of the future. Of the 400 respondents who offered a vision of the future, 92.3% were negative, 5.6% were mixed or neutral, and just 0.6% were positive.

One 42-year-old father wrote that the world in 2050 would be “a hot-house hell, with wars over limited resources, collapsing civilisation, failing agriculture, rising seas, melting glaciers, starvation, droughts, floods, mudslides and widespread devastation.” Schneider-Mayerson said he thought the pessimistic views held were all within the range of possibilities, if not necessarily the most likely outcome.

The research also found that some people who were already parents expressed regret over having their children.

... “As climate change continues to worsen, it is important to understand how perceptions of the future can change the way everyday people plan their lives,” Wynes said. “This study is an initial step in growing that understanding.”

The study is the first peer-reviewed academic study of the issue and analysed a large group of concerned people. The survey was done anonymously so people could express themselves freely. ...

Eco-reproductive concerns in the age of climate change
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-020-02923-y
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late