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Author Topic: Global Surface Air Temperatures  (Read 600997 times)

josh-j

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2250 on: August 26, 2020, 11:36:16 PM »
For what its worth (not much, I'm a mere lurker), it seems this is the right thread for Glenn's post.

I would just add that a string of warm months doesn't necessarily mean a causal link to Covid, especially since sinilar patterns are seen in other years.

But isn't this thread the place to discuss that? 🙂

<How does global aerosol dimming work? Where do we see it? The anomalies at the top of the world on both sides clearly indicate something else, namely ongoing atmospheric changes due to global warming. As a rule of the thumb when a moderator says this is not the proper thread including this hint: The aerosol masking effect is more local to the pollution sources so it´s not involved here kassy>
« Last Edit: August 27, 2020, 09:40:16 AM by kassy »

glennbuck

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2251 on: August 27, 2020, 12:37:24 AM »
For what its worth (not much, I'm a mere lurker), it seems this is the right thread for Glenn's post.

I would just add that a string of warm months doesn't necessarily mean a causal link to Covid, especially since sinilar patterns are seen in other years.

But isn't this thread the place to discuss that? 🙂

Ok i will put these back here then.

This type of anomaly does not exist in the atmospheric record. Offering an indication that the reduction in aerosol masking effect this year is happening, to what degree it is changing temperatures is the question, with a 20% reduction in the aerosol masking effect reduction in 2020, compared to 100% in the below published scientific journal in 2018.

This would indicate a 0.05C-0.11C effect from a 20% reduction from the aerosol masking effect compared to a 100% reduction in the below study. Still a large jump as 0.05C-0.11C would normally happen over a 3 to 10 year period and this would of happened over a 6 months period.

The models simulate an additional global warming of around 0.7°C when fully removing Anthropogenic aerosols, with a model range of (0.5, 1.1)°C.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2017GL076079

This does not include future reductions in the aerosol masking effects from reduction in consumption/industrial activity globally from the pandemic and second great depression in the next 2 years.

As we can see from the air temperature rank in the 4th chart in the global lockdown period, April, May, June, July shot up to 6,1,2,1 in warmest years. Jan, Feb, March were 20,13,32 and looking below average, China did not shut down most of its country in there Lockdown only the Wuhan    area at the end of Jan.
« Last Edit: August 27, 2020, 02:15:35 AM by glennbuck »

sark

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2252 on: August 27, 2020, 01:11:45 AM »
Aerosol unmasking doesn't explain 2019
I am not a scientist

glennbuck

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2253 on: August 27, 2020, 01:44:56 AM »
Aerosol unmasking doesn't explain 2019

Was posting comparison to 2019/2020, would be good if you posted your thoughts here about global dimming and 2020 weather sark, hope you dont mind me using your temperature charts anomaly.

oren

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2254 on: August 27, 2020, 04:01:46 AM »
Has there been an actual reduction of aerosols, is there some measurement data supporting this? Where does the 20% come from?

sark

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2255 on: August 27, 2020, 04:10:56 AM »
Aerosol unmasking doesn't explain 2019

Was posting comparison to 2019/2020, would be good if you posted your thoughts here about global dimming and 2020 weather sark, hope you dont mind me using your temperature charts anomaly.

not at all.  I'll point out that we really saw amplified transport to the pole in 2019 with a very large signal at 500mb height anomalies.  anticyclones began flooding to the pole after the sudden final warming of the winter polar vortex.  This split the tropospheric vortex very badly, and we saw continued breakup of the TPV in May - August of 2019.  This period marks the highest 500mb geopotential heights in the record over the North Pole.

Similarly, 2020 had a dynamic final warming of the NH strat PV...

Now the transport is seemingly coming in at a much lower level, as 925mb temperatures have suddenly ripped north of +4C over 4 months.  Unprecedented.
I am not a scientist

Archimid

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2256 on: August 27, 2020, 11:20:34 AM »
Given humanity's current governance and existing trends, limiting warming to 3C isn't going to happen either, barring some social, political or engineering miracle.

We need "miracles" in all three. Miracles happen more often to those who try to make them happen. So in theory if "we" try hard enough we can increase the likelihood of miracles.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

glennbuck

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2257 on: August 27, 2020, 04:28:56 PM »
Has there been an actual reduction of aerosols, is there some measurement data supporting this? Where does the 20% come from?

I would imagine there has been a large reduction of aerosols based on most of the world was in Lockdown for 3 months, that speaks for itself without any need for evidence that this would reduce aerosols by a large amount, the evidence of how much will be published in time. Below are some articles i found on this.

The 20% is just a rough estimate based on reduced industrial activity,GDP, flights grounded, reduction in car travel, holidays, hotels, restaurants and bars shut etc.

Which is partly ongoing the reduction of aerosols and the effects will be continuing for a long time if activity/jobs/travel/consumption/tourism is reduced into next year.

The International Air Transport Association said it did not expect 2019 levels to be exceeded until 2023.

https://www.breakingtravelnews.com/news/article/no-full-aviation-recovery-until-at-least-2023-iata-predicts/

Some 1.3 million passengers flew into the UK last month compared with 11.1 million in July 2019, the Home Office said.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/flight-arrivals-down-89-in-july-despite-travel-corridors/ar-BB18qjfm

Researchers around the world are now trying to parse out how Coronavirus lockdown measures have affected global emissions. In the Nature Climate Change study published last month, an international team of scientists found that daily CO2 emissions dropped by 17% at the peak of the coronavirus shutdown.

Another study published in Geophysical Research Letters in May found that nitrogen dioxide pollution over China, Western Europe and the United States decreased by as much as 60% in early 2020 compared to the same time last year. And a study focused on northern China found that levels of particulate matter known as PM 2.5, a notable human health hazard, decreased by approximately 60 percent in January and February.

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/08062020/sulfate-emissions-coronavirus-arctic-heatwaves

The COVID-19 pandemic elicited a global response to limit associated mortality, with social distancing and lockdowns being imposed. In India, human activities were restricted from late March 2020. This ‘anthropogenic emissions switch-off’ presented an opportunity to investigate impacts of COVID-19 mitigation measures on ambient air quality in five Indian cities (Chennai, Delhi, Hyderabad, Kolkata, and Mumbai), using in-situ measurements from 2015 to 2020. For each year, we isolated, analysed and compared fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration data from 25 March to 11 May, to elucidate the effects of the lockdown. Like other global cities, we observed substantial reductions in PM2.5 concentrations, from 19 to 43% (Chennai), 41–53% (Delhi), 26–54% (Hyderabad), 24–36% (Kolkata), and 10–39% (Mumbai). Generally, cities with larger traffic volumes showed greater reductions. Aerosol loading decreased by 29% (Chennai), 11% (Delhi), 4% (Kolkata), and 1% (Mumbai) against 2019 data.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221067072030603X

Concentrations of sulfur dioxide in polluted areas in India have decreased by around 40% between April 2019 and April 2020. Using data from the Copernicus Sentinel-5P satellite, from the European Union Copernicus program, scientists have produced new maps that show the drop in concentrations across the country in times of COVID-19.

https://scitechdaily.com/sulfur-dioxide-concentrations-drop-over-india-during-covid-19/

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/07/200709141538.htm

"We are experiencing the worst economic shock since the Great Depression, while at the same time we have experienced the greatest drop in greenhouse gas emissions since the burning of fossil fuels began," Dr Malik said.

This study focuses on 'live' data to 22 May (with the exception of air travel, for which only a 12-month forecast exists), differing from most assessments of the economic impacts of the pandemic based on scenario analyses and/or projections -- and it is the first to provide an overview of the combined economic, social and environmental impacts, including indirect effects, of the coronavirus.

Key Reductions

    Consumption: US$3.8 trillion (4.2 percent ~ GDP of Germany)
    Jobs: 147m (4.2 percent of the global workforce)
    Income from wages and salaries: $2.1 trillion (6 percent)
    Most directly hit: US, China (mainland), air transport and related tourism
    Greenhouse gas emissions: 2.5Gt (4.6 percent) -- larger than any drop in human history*
    Other atmospheric emissions -- PM2.5: Dangerously fine particulate matter emissions fall 0.6 Mt (3.8 percent); SO2 & NOx: Sulfur dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels -- which has been linked to asthma and chest tightness -- and emissions from nitrogen oxide -- from fuel combustion, for example, driving cars -- fall 5.1 Mt (2.9 percent).

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0235654

« Last Edit: August 27, 2020, 11:11:56 PM by glennbuck »

glennbuck

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2258 on: August 27, 2020, 04:36:08 PM »
Aerosol unmasking doesn't explain 2019

Was posting comparison to 2019/2020, would be good if you posted your thoughts here about global dimming and 2020 weather sark, hope you dont mind me using your temperature charts anomaly.

not at all.  I'll point out that we really saw amplified transport to the pole in 2019 with a very large signal at 500mb height anomalies.  anticyclones began flooding to the pole after the sudden final warming of the winter polar vortex.  This split the tropospheric vortex very badly, and we saw continued breakup of the TPV in May - August of 2019.  This period marks the highest 500mb geopotential heights in the record over the North Pole.

Similarly, 2020 had a dynamic final warming of the NH strat PV...

Now the transport is seemingly coming in at a much lower level, as 925mb temperatures have suddenly ripped north of +4C over 4 months.  Unprecedented.

August is looking similar, will wait for the NOAA, Global Climate Report for August. Below is for July.

According to our regional analysis, Europe, Asia, the Caribbean region, and the Gulf of Mexico had their warmest January–July since regional records began in 1910. Europe had a year-to-date temperature departure of +2.10°C (+3.78°F), marking the first time the January–July temperature departure surpassed the 2.0°C (3.6°F) mark on record. This value surpassed the previous record set in 2014 by +0.12°C (+0.22°F). Europe's five warmest January–Julys on record have occurred since 2014.

For Asia, the year-to-date temperature departure of +2.57°C (+4.63°F) surpassed the now second warmest January–July set in 2016 by +0.48°C (0.86°F). Only January–July of 2016 and 2020 have a temperature departure surpassing 2.0°C (3.6°F).

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202007
« Last Edit: August 27, 2020, 08:32:41 PM by glennbuck »

kassy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2259 on: August 27, 2020, 06:43:34 PM »
As we saw this year people just love seeing a pattern even when there is none or not one you could easily see.

Looking at an anomaly map that gives us current temps vs a certain base line and then relating that to some recent ´Covid´effect from this year is not going to work.

What we don´t know:
How much of our current anomaly can be related to natural variability?

How much of our current anomaly can be related to AGW?

And we don´t know the exact amount of change. Numbers on CO2 and NOx have been provided, haven´t seen one for drop out of masking aerosols. So it makes it hard to even start guessing.

Basically all these claims stem from the fallacy of people seeing patterns that are probably not there.

Now these polar anomalies are something else. Keep reporting on them sark. 
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Lewis

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2260 on: September 07, 2020, 05:17:02 PM »
August 2020 was the fourth warmest August on record according to Copernicus.

At 0.44C above the August 1981-2010 average globally
Behind 2016 (+0.58C) (cooler by 0.13C)
Behind 2019 (+0.53C) (cooler by 0.09C)
Behind 2017 (+0.47C) (cooler by 0.03C)

https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-august-2020