Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Heatwaves  (Read 34770 times)

DrTskoul

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1402
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 175
  • Likes Given: 59
Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #300 on: July 25, 2019, 02:32:13 PM »
Chick-icles

Rich

  • Guest
Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #301 on: July 25, 2019, 02:38:20 PM »
CNN has reported that Paris has reached 41C. A new record. Still perhaps another hour or so to push it a little further.

pleun

  • New ice
  • Posts: 26
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #302 on: July 25, 2019, 02:39:05 PM »
almost 43C  now in the middle of holland ! allthough i get the feeling that the sensor might have melted...


Rich

  • Guest
Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #303 on: July 25, 2019, 02:48:44 PM »
almost 43C  now in the middle of holland ! allthough i get the feeling that the sensor might have melted...

Holland and the Netherlands are often confused with each other.

North and South Holland are Dutch provinces, nowhere near that high temp reading. I believe that is Brabant or Limburg.

pleun

  • New ice
  • Posts: 26
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #304 on: July 25, 2019, 02:59:29 PM »
ah, thanks for the heads up

RikW

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 169
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 14
  • Likes Given: 10
Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #305 on: July 25, 2019, 03:06:30 PM »
It's confirmed it's a broken sensor, it's in the province Gelderland and we still have broken the old record (yesterday's...) with 39.7 and I think temperatures can still rise next hours, so still possible to reach 40degree+

Stephan

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 606
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 127
  • Likes Given: 89
Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #306 on: July 25, 2019, 03:46:57 PM »
New records falling - allover Western Germany and BeNeLux.
The day is not over - this is just an update.
Lingen (Ems) had 40.9 today so far. It is the station with "41" in the graph. Hottest ever recorded T in Germany since the 1840s.
Life in the city (we have 39.7°C at the moment) has almost stopped.
And our Western neighbours (France, Belgique/België, Lëtzebuerg and Nederland) suffer from the same heat wave. Also there new records are more than likely.
I'll keep you updated.

BornFromTheVoid

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 996
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 18
  • Likes Given: 12
Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #307 on: July 25, 2019, 03:52:34 PM »
KNMI have confirmed 40C+ in the Netherlands.
https://twitter.com/KNMI/status/1154375695268810752

UK July record has been broken too
https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1154369428525637632

Plenty of time for more.

Rich

  • Guest
Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #308 on: July 25, 2019, 03:57:21 PM »
Thankful that this heat wave is passing through in  just a few days. A week of this would be .....

Climate change is still just a precocious child. Showing off. The reaction to the Great Acceleration is just beginning to show up. Puberty is going to be a bitch.

Alexander555

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 755
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 30
  • Likes Given: 34
Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #309 on: July 25, 2019, 04:56:14 PM »
The animals are suffering. We have a couple wild rabbits in the forest next to the house. And normaly they run as fast as they can when they see me coming with my bike. And yesterday there was one sitting next to the road. He saw me coming from far. When i was less than one meter from him, he made 2 little jumps. And than he stopped again. And everything from birds to beetles and ants. They try to get into the house or the garage where its cooler.

nanning

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 388
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 44
  • Likes Given: 2100
Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #310 on: July 25, 2019, 05:30:46 PM »
The animals are suffering.
<snippage>
I'm thinking of the poor horses, cows, sheep etc. outside in the field without a tree or other shade.  :'(
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly"

Stephan

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 606
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 127
  • Likes Given: 89
Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #311 on: July 25, 2019, 05:34:11 PM »
Update as promised.
The all-time-record from yesterday (40.5°C) has now been beaten by 1.4°C. Lingen (Ems) made it today to 41.9°C. That is incredible. A top 5 list and some further information in the attached picture.

Alexander555

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 755
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 30
  • Likes Given: 34
Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #312 on: July 25, 2019, 05:34:30 PM »
Yesterday a cow jumped into a little river, but she could'nt get out. The fire fighters had to come with a crane to lift her out.

Rich

  • Guest
Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #313 on: July 25, 2019, 05:45:53 PM »
Meteo-France has reported 42.6C in Paris. 2.2C above the old record.

UK hit 38.1C at Cambridge. 2nd highest UK temp all-time. Extinction Rebellion getting some motivation for their next wave of protests.


grixm

  • New ice
  • Posts: 71
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 36
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #314 on: July 25, 2019, 06:21:07 PM »
Now Norway is forecast to break the all-time national record too. Record is currently 35.6C, while at least Voss may reach 37C tomorrow.

https://www.yr.no/en/forecast/daily-table/1-109644/Norway/Hordaland/Voss/Voss
« Last Edit: July 25, 2019, 06:32:13 PM by grixm »

bbr2314

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1694
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 150
  • Likes Given: 42
Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #315 on: July 25, 2019, 06:39:43 PM »
I think the Asian economies are heading towards recession (even if fake China numbers don't show it), and this may have to do with aerosol %s dropping? I can't think of another explanation for Paris beating the 1947 record by 5F.

BornFromTheVoid

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 996
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 18
  • Likes Given: 12
Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #316 on: July 25, 2019, 07:33:41 PM »
I think the Asian economies are heading towards recession (even if fake China numbers don't show it), and this may have to do with aerosol %s dropping? I can't think of another explanation for Paris beating the 1947 record by 5F.


The Met Office did an interesting live video today discussing the current heatwave, the dynamics and the role of climate change.



At about 16 mins in they mention that northern Africa has warmed about 2C over the last century, and this is where the air for the heatwave is originating, hence the ability to smash records.

DrTskoul

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1402
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 175
  • Likes Given: 59
Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #317 on: July 25, 2019, 07:35:38 PM »
I think the Asian economies are heading towards recession (even if fake China numbers don't show it), and this may have to do with aerosol %s dropping? I can't think of another explanation for Paris beating the 1947 record by 5F.


The Met Office did an interesting live video today discussing the current heatwave, the dynamics and the role of climate change.



At about 16 mins in they mention that northern Africa has warmed about 2C over the last century, and this is where the air for the heatwave is originating, hence the ability to smash records.

2C here 2C there, mix in some urbanization and stuck weather patterns and you have a hot hot soup of consequences...
« Last Edit: July 25, 2019, 08:07:17 PM by DrTskoul »

BornFromTheVoid

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 996
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 18
  • Likes Given: 12
Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #318 on: July 25, 2019, 08:00:10 PM »
Some records for the day

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1154448787932233728

The #heatwave across Europe meant Germany (42.6 °C), the Netherlands (40.7 °C) and Belgium (40.6 °C) had their highest temperatures on record today.

Several sites including Paris, Edinburgh, Cambridge and Writtle also recorded their highest ever temperatures




werther

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 727
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #319 on: July 25, 2019, 08:56:27 PM »
I was in office all day. Lucky enough. Coming out late afternoon, felt like Lisboa or Greece. Incredible. Tomorrow, third day in a row.

kassy

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 525
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 104
  • Likes Given: 212
Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #320 on: July 25, 2019, 08:59:39 PM »
I think the Asian economies are heading towards recession (even if fake China numbers don't show it), and this may have to do with aerosol %s dropping? I can't think of another explanation for Paris beating the 1947 record by 5F.

It is hot african air so this might just be the planets actual response?
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

bbr2314

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1694
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 150
  • Likes Given: 42
Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #321 on: July 25, 2019, 09:06:01 PM »
I think the Asian economies are heading towards recession (even if fake China numbers don't show it), and this may have to do with aerosol %s dropping? I can't think of another explanation for Paris beating the 1947 record by 5F.

It is hot african air so this might just be the planets actual response?
I know it is originating from Africa, but we have had this happen plenty of times before without this effect. Maybe it is both? Some studies said aerosol impact was undermodeled and if we are now in a recession it would be a plausible partial explanation for why Paris has shattered their all-time high by almost 5 Fahrenheit. That is absurd. !

Also, Northern Africa has actually been fairly cool in recent years, I think the switch happened after 2012.

werther

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 727
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #322 on: July 25, 2019, 09:27:00 PM »
Couple of years ago, I suggested the main scene of change might be the mid-latitudes. It sure feels like that these days.
Yes, heatwaves used to occur on the North Sea shores. Every two or three years. Last year, a brief envelope of what is experienced now, 27th July '18. So hot, on the shores of sea-arm Haringvliet, perspective over the broad water seemed to bulge the surface down in strange sunset light.

Now, this kind of heat is back. Longer, more alarming.

Remember Dr. Francis' work on the Polar jet-stream? I think the consequenses of that pattern progressively reveal themselves. Bringing up warm upper troposphere air pockets from southern spheres, heated by sunlight right here.
The possibility was always there. But circumstances are now so much worse. It was just a matter of time to have these record-smashing waves around.

Let's see now whether this one will be transported by a vicious rossby-wave right into the Arctic...

Because IMHO that's how GAC'12 was ignited from the Pacific side.

kassy

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 525
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 104
  • Likes Given: 212
Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #323 on: July 25, 2019, 09:30:15 PM »
I think the switch happened after 2012.

Yes after that.

I think it is all the energy just adding up. Last year was ridiculous but how to guesstimate how much spills over to this year is hard. There should be at least a short time delay for the aerosol pollution drops and it is somewhat local but China to Africa where this air came from is not a standard connection so i think it is more of a system response thing.

Not sure how much residual damage France or Paris had but in the Netherlands we have an ongoing groundwater deficit which is problematic for the higher (eastern) parts of the country. It makes them dryer and also hotter. No idea about the patterns in France but i think this is the combination of our current carbon blanket with thousands of kilometers of landscapes that dont cool like they used to because they already dried out a bit over the recent years.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Alexander555

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 755
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 30
  • Likes Given: 34
Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #324 on: July 25, 2019, 09:33:36 PM »
It was on the news here yesterday. Until 2000 there was a heatwave in Belgium every 4 years, on average. From 2000 on, it changed to one heatwave every 2 years. And now we had a heatwave in the last 4 years. With 2 heatwaves for this and last year. And the summer is not over yet.

kassy

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 525
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 104
  • Likes Given: 212
Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #325 on: July 25, 2019, 09:48:00 PM »
Appearing for meteorology or posing as your local Mike Litoris?
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Stephan

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 606
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 127
  • Likes Given: 89
Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #326 on: July 25, 2019, 09:54:35 PM »
This is my final post for this historical day. The official max temperatures for this July 25, 2019.
In the end 42.6°C was reached in Lingen (Ems). This is 2.1°C warmer than last day's all-time record (which has been broken in a dozen other cities, too, see the number of "41s" on the map) and 2.3°C warmer than the last record in 2015.

kassy

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 525
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 104
  • Likes Given: 212
Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #327 on: July 25, 2019, 10:16:32 PM »
https://www.nu.nl/binnenland/5970570/tropisch-warme-nacht-op-komst-na-dag-met-recordhitte.html

40C hit in 5 provinces. Night will not be below 22.

Ook in de buurlanden België (40,7) , Duitsland (41,6) en Frankrijk (42,6) werden recordtemperaturen gemeten.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

P-maker

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 222
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 8
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #328 on: July 26, 2019, 12:03:49 AM »
So Stephan,

assuming it's neither a local Urban Heat Island effect, nor the local nuclear power plant letting out steam, I wish to thank you for your efforts keeping us up-to-date.

I also noted that Wikipedia for Lingen had already been updated this evening:

Quote
On 25 July 2019, Lingen set the record for the temperature record ever recorded within Germany with a daytime high temperature of 42.6 degrees Celsius (109 degrees Fahrenheit) during a heat wave affecting much of Europe.

I agree, it's time to call it a day.

Alexander555

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 755
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 30
  • Likes Given: 34
Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #329 on: July 26, 2019, 12:16:27 PM »
In Belgium the all time high record is broken by 3 degree C. The station in Begijnendijk touched 41,8 degree C. The not so old record was 38,8 or 38,9 degree C.

grixm

  • New ice
  • Posts: 71
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 36
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #330 on: July 26, 2019, 03:40:33 PM »
Several cities here in Norway, including my own, has broken their all-time records.
But temperatures are starting to plateau, and an all-time national record is still over 2C away. Not too late yet (and temps will stay high for the next 2-3 days) but it's not as likely as yesterday's forecast suggested, anymore.

EDIT: Peaked today 1.4C below national record.
« Last Edit: July 26, 2019, 06:42:07 PM by grixm »

BornFromTheVoid

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 996
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 18
  • Likes Given: 12
Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #331 on: July 26, 2019, 04:42:23 PM »

vox_mundi

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1099
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 280
  • Likes Given: 85
Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #332 on: July 26, 2019, 06:22:05 PM »
Get Ready for New Forms of Extreme Weather: Hurricanes Followed by Heat Waves
http://www.anthropocenemagazine.org/2019/07/get-ready-for-the-one-two-punch-of-hurricanes-and-heat-waves/
https://phys.org/news/2019-07-deadly-hidden-weather-hazard-potential.html



New research, led by Loughborough University academics, has found that tropical cyclones followed by deadly heat is an emerging weather threat that could put millions of people at risk as global temperatures continue to rise.

Researchers gathered records of 121 major tropical cyclones that made landfall in the Northwest Pacific, South Indian, and North Atlantic basins between 1979 and 2017. They computed the probability of a cyclone affecting given location on land for each day of the year.

They also used temperature records to compute the probability of locations experiencing a heat index of 40.6 °C (105 °F) for each day of the year. This enabled them to model the likelihood of a heat wave occurring in the 30 days after a storm’s landfall. A 2015 map of global population added the final piece: how many people might be affected by these tropical cyclone-heat events.

Such events can be expected to occur about once a decade, the researchers calculated, and to affect about 400,000 people. In fact, four tropical cyclones were followed by heat waves between 1979 and 2017. But as luck would have it, they all occurred in remote areas of northwest Australia, with only about 1,000 people affected.

And as climate change proceeds, such storms will become more and more likely to be followed by heat waves. For example, with 2 °C of global warming, there’s a greater than 70% chance that a storm like Cyclone Marian would be followed by extreme heat.

Through their analysis, the researchers concluded that if temperatures were sustained at 2°C above pre-industrial levels for 30 years, the number of people affected by this hazard would rise to over 2 million.

For the 1.5°C warming, the figure is 1.2 million and it reaches almost 12 million if the earth's climate were to warm to 4°C above pre-industrial temperatures (and under this scenario, the researchers expect the hazard to be an annual occurrence).

The team say the hazard could impact coastlines around the world that sit close to the equator, including the Gulf of Mexico, the Philippines, the Bay of Bengal (India), and northwest Australia.

If anything, the analysis probably underplays the risk.
That’s because the calculations don’t take into account the fact that tropical cyclones are predicted to happen more often with climate change, nor do they account for future population growth in regions prone to both tropical cyclones and extreme heat. Plus, the heat index tends to be elevated in the days before a tropical storm – meaning evacuations in the path of a coming storm could also become increasingly dangerous.

An emerging tropical cyclone–deadly heat compound hazard, Nature Climate Change (2019)

------------------------

Dangerous heatwave to arrive after remnants of Hurricane Barry pass through St. Louis
https://fox2now.com/2019/07/15/dangerous-heatwave-to-arrive-after-remnants-of-hurricane-barry-passes-through-st-louis/
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1344
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 334
  • Likes Given: 465
Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #333 on: July 27, 2019, 04:52:58 AM »
Europe’s heat wave is about to bake the Arctic
Concerns grow regarding sea ice and Greenland’s ice sheet.
By Andrew Freedman
July 26 at 12:12 PM
Quote
On Friday, more temperature records are falling in Europe as the historic heat wave that brought the hottest weather ever recorded in Paris, London, the United Kingdom, Belgium, the Netherlands and Germany shifts northward. In a few days, the weather system responsible for the heat wave will stretch all the way across the top of the globe.

It’s what this system, characterized by a strong area of high pressure aloft — often referred to as a heat dome — will do to the Arctic that has some scientists increasingly concerned.

Norway, Sweden and Finland will experience unusually high temperatures through the weekend, as a potentially record strong area of high pressure in the mid-levels of the atmosphere sets up over the region, blocking any cold fronts or other storm systems from moving into the area, like a traffic light in the sky.

Accelerating Arctic ice melt

Ruth Mottram, a researcher with the Danish Meteorological Institute, tells The Washington Post that as the high-pressure area, also referred to as a “blocking ridge,” sets up over Greenland, it could promote a widespread and significant melt event like the one in 2012. During that summer, nearly all of the ice sheet experienced melting, including the highest elevations that rarely exceed 32 degrees.

Zack Labe, a climate researcher at the University of California at Irvine who focuses on Arctic climate change, says the upcoming Arctic heat wave could have major ramifications and may push sea ice to another record low at the end of the melt season.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/07/26/europes-heat-wave-is-about-bake-arctic/?utm_term=.58053c0c9317
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

grixm

  • New ice
  • Posts: 71
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 36
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #334 on: July 27, 2019, 07:31:16 PM »
Norway's all-time record (35.6C) has been equaled: https://www.nrk.no/norge/den-norske-varmerekorden-fra-1970-er-tangert-1.14639854

And that in a relatively northern part of the country, 66⁰N

Tom_Mazanec

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 854
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 99
  • Likes Given: 28
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

vox_mundi

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1099
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 280
  • Likes Given: 85
Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #336 on: July 29, 2019, 05:30:42 PM »
Think the Heatwave Was Bad? Climate Already Hitting Key Tipping Points
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climate-change-heatwaves/think-the-heatwave-was-bad-climate-already-hitting-key-tipping-points-idUSKCN1UN065

... U.S climatologist Michael Mann believes emissions need to fall even more drastically than the IPCC assumes since the panel may be underestimating how far temperatures have already risen since pre-industrial times.

“Our work on this indicates that we might have as much as 40% less carbon left to burn than IPCC implies, if we are to avert the 1.5 Celsius warming limit,” said Mann, director of the Earth System Science Center at Pennsylvania State University.

Mann has urged governments to treat the transition to renewable energy with the equivalent urgency that drove the U.S. industrial mobilization in World War Two.

So far, no major economy has taken heed.

... “Either we radically transform human collective life by abandoning the use of fossil fuels or, more likely, climate change will bring about the end of global fossil-fuelled capitalist civilization,” wrote U.S. author Roy Scranton, in an April essay in MIT Technology Review.

“Revolution or collapse — in either case, the good life as we know it is no longer viable.”
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Bruce Steele

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1410
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 84
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #337 on: July 29, 2019, 06:01:51 PM »
Here is a link to the Roy Scranton opinion piece. Thanks Vox,

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/613343/lessons-from-a-genocide-can-prepare-humanity-for-climate-apocalypse/

ps . There is a reference to " The arctic death spiral ". I always think of Jim Pettit's graph so named.

Had to fix Jims name, apologies .
« Last Edit: July 30, 2019, 04:32:23 AM by Bruce Steele »

vox_mundi

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1099
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 280
  • Likes Given: 85
Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #338 on: July 29, 2019, 06:12:04 PM »
Thx Bruce  :)
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3813
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 316
  • Likes Given: 37
Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #339 on: July 29, 2019, 08:27:22 PM »
Here is a link to the Roy Scranton opinion piece. Thanks Vox,

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/613343/lessons-from-a-genocide-can-prepare-humanity-for-climate-apocalypse/

ps . There is a reference to " The arctic ice death spiral ". I always think of Jim Petite's  graph so named.

Yes. Thanks, I think.  :'(

TerryM

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4776
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 187
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #340 on: July 30, 2019, 03:53:29 AM »
Here is a link to the Roy Scranton opinion piece. Thanks Vox,

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/613343/lessons-from-a-genocide-can-prepare-humanity-for-climate-apocalypse/

ps . There is a reference to " The arctic ice death spiral ". I always think of Jim Petite's  graph so named.

Yes. Thanks, I think.  :'(


Roy Scranton's message, "our great-grandchildren may be the last generation of humans ever to live on planet Earth" is a difficult sermon to preach. Perhaps especially for those not raised neath the shadow of Nuclear Annihilation during the MAD pax on which our survival once depended.

A very few had access to bomb shelters. The majority whistled through those dark nights acting as though the results of Gillette's Friday Night Fights were of utmost importance. Bars turned up the volume & clans gathered around TVs as the weekly spectacular unfolded.

When the Cuban Missile Crisis parted the curtains Walter Cronkite's gravitas leant reality to the fragility of our precarious situation. When Uncle Walter worried, the Nation worried. It briefly flashed across America's collective conscience and plans for a short troglodyte sojourn were contemplated, (just until the sirens blared the "all clear"). Belief that there could be a winner, and that we would prevail were prevalent.

By Friday Liston was on the card and sanity returned. To cheer for an American who was black - or a foreigner who was white. These were the quandaries we were comfortable solving.

Living as though things other than the Sword of Damocles matter is old hat to us. We plant orchards, plan for retirement and act as though our kids will prosper - some even try to alter reality, forestall what may be the inevitable.

But Pacman had a great bout even though he didn't KO Thurman. ???
Terry


Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1344
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 334
  • Likes Given: 465
Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #341 on: July 30, 2019, 01:24:04 PM »
"The world’s climate emergency is getting harder to ignore"
Quote
We’re still coming to grips with how hot the recent heat wave that scorched through Europe actually was.

What happened? An intense area of high pressure, known as a “heat dome,” settled over Western Europe. As The Washington Post’s deputy weather editor Andrew Freedman explained, the stunning margins by which many of the previous record highs were eclipsed over the last week point to an inescapable reality: man-made climate change.

“The weather system responsible for the heat wave is now parked on top of Greenland, where it is expected to significantly speed up the pace and extent of ice melt for the next week. It could also help to drive Arctic sea ice to a record low by September, beating a record set in 2012.”

Conditions are all the more terrifying elsewhere. Epic heat waves racked South Asia and the Middle East earlier this summer; glaciers in the Himalayas are now melting at double the rate since the turn of the century. Last month, the World Meteorological Organization projected that the period between the beginning of 2015 and the end of this year will mark the Earth’s five warmest years on record.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/07/30/worlds-climate-emergency-is-getting-harder-ignore/?utm_term=.7ee43658dd6f&wpisrc=nl_todayworld&wpmm=1
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

DrTskoul

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1402
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 175
  • Likes Given: 59
Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #342 on: July 30, 2019, 02:31:58 PM »
Quote
Weather agency the Met Office says the temperature reached 38.7 C (101.7 F) at Cambridge University Botanic Garden in eastern England.

Quote
The previous U.K. record was 38.5 C (101.3 F), set in August 2003.

Stephan

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 606
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 127
  • Likes Given: 89
Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #343 on: July 30, 2019, 06:16:37 PM »
So Stephan,

assuming it's neither a local Urban Heat Island effect, nor the local nuclear power plant letting out steam, I wish to thank you for your efforts keeping us up-to-date.

I also noted that Wikipedia for Lingen had already been updated this evening:

Quote
On 25 July 2019, Lingen set the record for the temperature record ever recorded within Germany with a daytime high temperature of 42.6 degrees Celsius (109 degrees Fahrenheit) during a heat wave affecting much of Europe.

I agree, it's time to call it a day.
Today WetterOnline.de revised this record maximum. Not that it wasn't measured, but the position of this weather station (in NE direction a big hedge is growing in very close distance) makes a "perfect air mixing" almost impossible. WetterOnline.de declares the 2nd of this day (Duisburg-Baerl and Tönisvorst (both at 41.2°C)) as "winners" of this crazy hot day. See link for further information: https://www.wetteronline.de/wetternews/messung-in-lingen-inakzeptabel-42-6-grad-rekord-unbrauchbar-2019-07-30-hi

vox_mundi

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1099
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 280
  • Likes Given: 85
Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #344 on: August 01, 2019, 11:46:37 PM »
July Was World's Hottest Month On Record, WMO Says
https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/july-hottest-month-1.5233368
https://phys.org/news/2019-08-chief-july-equaled-surpassed-hottest.html

Secretary-General Antonio Guterres says the latest data from the World Meteorological Organization shows that the month of July "at least equalled if not surpassed the hottest month in recorded history" — and it followed the hottest June ever.

The UN chief told reporters Thursday that "this is even more significant because the previous hottest month, July 2016, occurred during one of the strongest El Niño's ever," which was not the case this year.

https://twitter.com/UN_Spokesperson/status/1156973239840792577

Guterres said this means the world is on track for the period from 2015 to 2019 "to be the five hottest years on record."

He warned that if all nations don't take action now to tackle climate change and global warming, extreme weather events happening now will be "just the tip of the iceberg."
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tom_Mazanec

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 854
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 99
  • Likes Given: 28
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

vox_mundi

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1099
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 280
  • Likes Given: 85
Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #346 on: August 02, 2019, 04:41:21 PM »
July Heatwave Up to 3°C Hotter Due to Climate Change
https://phys.org/news/2019-08-july-heatwave-3c-hotter-due.html

Europe has experienced exceptionally intense heatwaves in 2003, 2010, 2015, 2017, 2018 and two this year, peaks consistent with the general warming trend: the four hottest years on record globally were the last four years.

...Scientists from the World Weather Attribution team combined climate modelling with historical heatwave trends and compared this July's heatwave with in-situ monitoring across the continent.

They concluded that the temperatures in the climate models were between 1.5-3C lower than those observed during the heatwave in Europe.

"In all locations an event like the observed would have been 1.5 to 3C cooler in an unchanged climate," the WWA said, adding that the difference was "consistent with increased instances of morbidity and mortality."

Such temperature extremes in northern Europe, without the additional 1C centigrade humans have added to the atmosphere since the industrial era, would be expected on average once every 1000 years.

Global warming also made the July heatwave in some countries between 10-100 times more likely to occur, compared with computer simulations.

-------------------------

Cutting Pollution Won't Cause Global Warming Spike, Study Finds
https://phys.org/news/2019-08-pollution-wont-global-spike.html

Fears that efforts to reduce air pollution could dramatically speed up the process of global warming have been allayed with the publication of a landmark new study.

The findings, published in Nature, offer greater hope that current plans to curb global warming by moving to cleaner sources of energy may still work without leading to an unexpected extra source of heating.

see also: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1384.msg218298.html#msg218298
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 14774
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 227
  • Likes Given: 165
Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #347 on: August 03, 2019, 02:52:21 AM »
In the midst of one of the biggest melt events for the Greenland ice sheet, the ice melt on 1 August 2019 was the highest volume ever recorded in a single day.

Greenland Ice Sheet Beats All-Time 1-Day Melt Record
Quote
The Greenland ice sheet broke records on 1 August 2019 by losing more water volume in 1 day than on than any other day since records began in 1950, shedding 12.5 billion tons of water into the sea.

The record-breaking day came during a weeklong extreme melt event hitting Greenland due to soaring temperatures and low snow accumulation over the winter. The warmer temperatures are part of a heat wave that scorched Europe in late July, setting records in several countries including Germany, France, and the Netherlands.

The extreme melting liquified enough ice to fill 5 million Olympic-sized swimming pools with water.

Air temperatures rose to 10°C above average in places in Greenland this week and peaked above the freezing point for hours at a time at the ice sheet’s summit more than 3,200 meters above sea level. The months of April, May, June, and July also had higher than average temperatures in Greenland. ...
https://eos.org/articles/greenland-ice-sheet-beats-all-time-1-day-melt-record
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 14774
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 227
  • Likes Given: 165
Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #348 on: August 03, 2019, 07:21:37 PM »
Dying Orchards, Missing Fish as Climate Change Fueled Europe’s Record Heat
Quote
VELA LUKA, Croatia — The harvest in Mirjana Štimac's almond orchard usually starts in late July, but this year, the crop has failed, with only a few mature nuts per tree.

The trees are dying, and she blames a series of heat waves that have struck in recent years in an orchard that was already under stress from steadily rising global temperatures. Europe saw off-the-charts heat this summer: June was 2 degrees Celsius (3.6°F) above average and crushed the record for the month by a full 1°C (1.8°F), and a late July temperature spike set new record highs across the continent.

Both heat waves were made much more likely by human-caused global warming, scientists with the World Weather Attribution group announced in a study released Friday.

These past two months have been extreme worldwide: It was Earth's hottest June on record, followed by a July that the World Meteorological Organization reported this week had at least tied for the hottest July since global record-keeping began and may have broken the record.

Štimac has been tending almonds, olives, grapes and figs on the north shore of Korčula Island for 25 years, and while her orchards didn't get the worst of the latest heat wave, they have been suffering. All of the plants are well-adapted to seasonal Mediterranean heat and dryness, yet the cumulative impacts of multiple extreme heat events are starting to add up, she says.

She snaps off a branch covered in dead leaves and shriveled nuts and points to something unexpected—a few bright green leaves at the tip.

"I've never seen that before in July," Štimac says. "I think climate change has shifted the seasons. It just keeps getting warmer. The last three years there was no spring, no fall, just long, hot summer. The trees aren't sure what to do. They need the seasons. They need a cool time to rest and rain in the spring."
...
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/02082019/extreme-heat-wave-climate-change-attribution-europe-almond-trees-fish-hottest-july-june
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

DrTskoul

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1402
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 175
  • Likes Given: 59
Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #349 on: August 03, 2019, 09:26:52 PM »
That huge chunk in France that is sort of violet is over 113˚ F or 45˚ C !

That purple is between 40 and 45oC